In case you forgot the objective of the exercise, we're looking at what to expect for Reds players as far as injuries are concerned. At least to what little extent we can hone our expectations on that matter. This article concerns the pitchers.

Pitchers succumb to injuries. It's unavoidable and largely unpredictable. And bad news has already struck for the Reds on this front. The team's closer was lost for all of 2012 without throwing a single pitch for the Reds. Bill Bray battled a groin injury in Spring Training, but is hopefully just about recovered for now. Chapman wasn't able to do all of the offseason condition that was expected because of soreness, though he seems fine now as well. If a team has ever made it through Spring Training without any pitcher injuries to speak of, they had the baseball equivalent of winning the lottery. So in the aggregate, the Reds really are not coming out of Spring Training in a bad situation with the pitchers.

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Injuries are an inherently unpredictable thing in sports. Still, you can make some observations, notice trends, factor in some generalizations (like old players being more likely to miss games with injuries), and look at past events to get some idea about a player's likelihood for injury in the future. Intuitively, position matters as well (especially if a guy happens to play the 1 on your scorecard). Chipper Jones would win the superfecta of injury risk red flags, while you would give the benefit of the doubt to Adrian Gonzalez. This likelihood will simply have to ignore the injuries that result from strange and unpredictable circumstances (like falling down stairs with a box of deer meat, for example - sorry to single you out, Clint Barmes). There's just no way to account for that.

Every team suffers injuries. Is a key cog at risk? Is anyone more likely to be out for extended periods? How does the Reds roster look in terms of hardiness for 2012?

The Position Players

Let's get the most important news out of the way first. Joey Votto gives us very little reason to be concerned about the risk of injury. He doesn't have a history, he's in his prime, he plays an undemanding position, and he takes excellent care of his body. The only slight concern I would have is that he does field his position with some athleticism and so he sometimes makes/tries to make unorthodox or risky plays. I would pencil him in for 150+ games with no hesitation, and if that doesn't happen our season is in trouble.

Brandon Phillips has also proven to be a very durable player. He's also not quite out of his prime yet. He does have some injury history, particularly nagging injuries but he tends to play through them rather than miss time. He plays a risky position in that it requires great athleticism, being exposed when turning double plays, and on top of that BP plays with crazy acrobatic ability. He's such an athlete that he doesn't injure himself though. 140+ games is a safe bet.

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In a way I am envious of the Padres. Not because they own like half of our former list of top-10 prospects, but because of Petco Park, really. Thanks to Petco, their rotation will be able to keep them in games despite not containing any real high quality arms. Also thanks to Petco, their generally bad offense is once again good enough to at least keep them in games because the other team can't score much either. Lastly, their home park is awesome because it makes decent and good relievers look amazing, and then they can trade those decent-to-good relievers for really good prospects. For these reasons, it's hard to tell whether the Padres' record will be good, bad, or mediocre because outcomes are more dependent on luck in their home games than is typical (this is my opinion at least). Their home park is the great equalizer. If they do manage to squeak into a 2nd wild card and get in the playoffs, I am sure they will not do well there because the team just isn't that talented.

Petco Park (via bryce_edwards) : to which I attribute almost mystical powers...

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Born: 6/22/1978

College: Kennesaw State, GA

Debut: 9/2/2001

HT/WT: 5'9"/195

Bats/Throws: L/R

At a Glance:

Drafted in the 24th round of the amateur draft in 1999, it seems the Orioles finally decided it was late enough to draft a guy who had too many coincidental ties to baseball not to end up with a decent career. Born in Cairo, GA, he also played at Cairo HS and lives there in the offseason, none of which has anything to do with his new organizational teammate, but is coincidence number one. He played college ball at Kennesaw State, and what with Kenesaw Mountain Landis being MLB's first ever commissioner is coincidence number two. And with a listed height and weight of 5'9", 195, he is an exact 1-to-1 physical replacement of the outfielder the Reds traded away this offseason in Dave Sappelt. Tell me that's just a coincidence...

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The Organizational Injury Report (which I think is rather self-explanatory) is a project we'd like to see as a regular feature on Red Reporter, and something that I've been working on for some time now.  It just happens to be the case that the offseason is not a particularly interesting or active time for injury updates.  Basically, the timeframe for every injury with every player is "Spring Training 2012."  As such, I've been biding time collecting data on Reds players and their injuries, and looking into MLB-related injuries in general.  And the injury topic du jour in MLB seems to be the oblique injury.  Thanks to the Tigers for putting this on full display in the postseason this year, as it creates a decent jumping-off spot for the OIR.

The idea that oblique injuries are a recent occurrence in sports is rather widespread, though not really true.  It may be the case that the injury rates with obliques have gone up (slightly) in recent years, but it is also likely that similar injuries in the past were simply called by some other name.  Rib cage strains and intercostal strains are two examples (though intercostal muscles are actually distinct from the obliques). 

However, there may also be some merit to the idea of an increase in oblique injuries because of the increased strength and targeted strength training of modern athletes.  First, because upper- and lower-body large muscles are being trained for greater power, more strain is placed upon the core (i.e. torso) muscles in directing/redirecting explosive movements created by these larger muscles.  Secondly, and counter-intuitively, direct strength training of the oblique muscles themselves may not help prevent these injuries, and in fact may even contribute to them.  If the obliques are trained and strengthened to go through very specific movements (the movements of purely strength-training exercises), it may contribute to injuries that occur in the "real-life" movements the players make during competition. 

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It is clear that this offseason will be one of the most interesting for the Reds in quite a while.  There are a bunch of decisions to make, and almost none of them have easy answers, and it is clear that maintaining the status quo (again) is not an acceptable course of action.  So we wait to see how Jocketty will manage the roster construction of our favorite team at this seemingly critical juncture in our team's trajectory.

But there were plenty of decisions to be made during the past offseason and during the course of this disappointing one, which is what I want to discuss here.  What were the decisions and options that Jocketty faced, how well did he handle them, and what were the results?

First, the signings.  Jocketty made a good number of them actually, for better or worse (and it was both).

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The Houston Astros are not going to be good this year.  They weren't good last year.  They've added no one of consequence during the offseason, but they did lose the guy who was their best pitcher by a good margin, and are even helping his new team pay his contract.  Their farm system is almost universally regarded as the worst in MLB.  For at least the 2nd year in a row.  Baseball America, Sickels, AOL News - it doesn't matter who's been doing the ranking, the Astros always come out at the bottom.  And with $26 million committed to Roy Oswalt and Carlos Lee this season, they don't have the budget to go out and fill holes with good free agents even if they want to (which Ed Wade probably does).

Not to pile on (OK, I don't mind piling on), but Fangraphs has rated the Astros as the worst organization in baseball for the second year in a row.  The ranking there take into account current talent, future talent at the minor- and major-league levels, front office acumen, and financial resources.  Dave Cameron has come under a good deal of scrutiny for these rankings at times (#6 org!), but it doesn't really matter what nits people might be picking about the ranking method when your team finishes dead last every year the rankings are done.

To top it off, hometown hero Jeff Bagwell could barely muster half the necessary votes to go into the HoF, despite having what really ought to be a slam dunk case.  Their ballpark has seen four different names in the span of its 10 years of existence, and the Astros caught a good deal of backlash when the Enron scandal blew up.  Pence won his arbitration case against the team, which offered nearly $2 million less than his asking price.  Almost everyone expected the club to win easily.  At least they don't have any injury trouble to speak of.

enron-logo (via Madalin Matica).  Is the team headed for a downfall/dismantling similar to its erstwhile sponsor?

So the Astros burned bright for a while, finishing 2nd or better in their division 12 of the 13 years from 1994-2006, going to the postseason 5 times between 1997 and 2005.  But this star retains mere vestiges of it's former glory, having jettisoned most of it's mass in the last few years, leaving a cold, dim dwarf.  Is there anything positive to say about this franchise right now?  A little.  Because they do have some major league talent on the roster.

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