JinAZ explained why Barry Larkin should be elected into the Hall of Fame, but the "will" or "when" is a separate question.  Larkin of course appears on the ballot for the first time this year and has 15 years to gain the requisite 75% of the BBWAA's eligible votes in order to avoid the "he'll have to buy a ticket to get in!" or "hall of very good" quips from sportswriters.  An eligible voter has at least 10 years in the BBWAA, which unfortunately for Larkin leaves sabermetrically-inclined voters like Rob Neyer, Keith Law, and Will Carroll on the sidelines for now.  Ballots are due on December 31, and the results will be published on January 6.  

Judging the voting patterns of the electoriate and predicting elections is more art than science.  Bill James and scores of others have demonstrated that the BBWAA does not treat the Hall of Fame like a meritocracy and (inconsistently) considers plenty of other factors, including team success, run scoring environment, popularity with the press, post-playing career, and most recently, "fear."  Adding to the unpredictability is the relatively small number of candidates considered over a long period of time.  At shortstop, the writers have only elected 10 shortstops into the Hall (the Veterans Committee has elected another 12).  Most of the 10 were elected decades ago before most of today's voters became eligible, which makes it harder to judge the current electorate (only Cal Ripken, Robin Yount, and Ozzie Smith have been elected in the last 25 years).  Additionally, a few of those 10 played a significant amount of time at other positions (Banks and Yount played only about half of their games at short, while Rabbit Maranville played about 20% of his games at second).   

With all that said, I feel relatively confident that Larkin will be enshrined after waiting a few years because most writers and fans recognize that Larkin was a great player for a long stretch of time.  The injuries and perhaps playing in a small market will hold Larkin back to some degree, but several measurements and other considerations point to eventual inlusion for Larkin:

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For a team that would win 108 games, the BRM got off to a sluggish start.  On May 17th (the end of Chapter 4 of The Machine), the Reds won to end a six game losing streak and climb back to .500 at 19-19.  Meanwhile, the smug Dodgers were cruising with a 24-13 record and a 5.5 game lead over the Reds.  But for the rest of the season, there wouldn't be any contest.  The Reds finished 89-35 (.718) to win the NL West by 20 (!) games over LA.  Not until the '86 Mets would an NL team win the division by that many games. 


One reason for the slow start was the light-hitting starting third baseman, John Vukovich.  The Reds had acquired the infielder in the offseason from Milwaukee (he must have been perceived as a really good fielder, because his career line before '75 was 157/200/212 in 468 PAs).  Sparky called him "Balsa."  On April 16, Sparky pinch hit for Balsa.  In the 2nd inning.  PH Dan Driessen fouled out and the Reds went on to lose 7-6.  While Vukovich fumed in the dugout, Sparky loudly asked his bench coach how he was supposed to win "without a real third baseman." 

The solution for a "real" third baseman, of course, was already on the team, playing left field.  Sparky's decision to shift Rose to third and insert the rising star George Foster into the starting lineup made perfect sense.  Still, the execution would be tricky.  Huge stars like Pete Rose don't get told to move to a new position just like that.  Sparky wisely opted for a softer sell:

And now, like fate, [Sparky] saw that opening.  He saw Pete Rose before the [May 2nd] game taking a few ground balls at first base.  This was his moment.  "What are you doing there, Peter Edward?"  Sparky said as he walked out on the field.  "Aw, just breaking in this new glove for Fawn," he said.  Fawn was Pete's daughter.  "Yeah," Sparky said.  Then he looked longingly over toward third base.  "I sure wish you were playing over there instead."  "Where's that?"  Pete asked.  "You mean third base?"  "I sure could use you there," Sparky said.  "Give me a chance to get Danny Driessen and George Foster in the lineup more."  "Are you serious?" Pete asked, and he looked over at third base.

The soft approach was particularly smart given a prior position switch controversy nine years earlier.  Then Reds manager Don Heffner told Rose that he would be moving to third, no questions asked.  Rose responded poorly on and off the field and was moved back to second a few weeks later.  Heffner would be fired that season.  Rose said of Heffner: "He was an asshole."  Rose had a different opinion of Sparky: "Sparky reminded me a lot of my dad."   Now that's a good manager.

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Who is Gossip GM?  I'll never tell!
via i2.cdn.turner.com

The Winter Meetings in Indy end tomorrow with the Rule V draft.  Here's a recap the deals and other news that broke yesterday, much of which was disussed in yesterday's open thread:

- Walt Jocketty had some discussions with the Rangers about "a hitter, shortstop depth and pitching depth." but nothing sounds close.  Walt and Jonny Gomes' agent are "still a ways apart."   Shortstop is still an area of interest, but it's no surprise that Jocketty thinks Miguel Tejada or Orlando Cabrera are poor fits for the Reds' "pay structure" (this rumor was floated by Jim Bowden).  And rest easy, RijoSaboCaseyWKRP - the Reds have not reached out to Jamey Carroll (his agent, Cincinnati-based Jonathan Maurer, confirmed).

- And speaking of Bowden, Washington signed Pudge Rodriguezto a two-year deal.  The final piece!  Bowden is of course no longer the Nationals' GM, making this one of the first winter meetings he hasn't attended as a GM in some time.  Which means no sartorial controversies and no arm-wrestling contests gone awry. 

- The Yankees, Tigers and Diamondbacks had an old-fashioned three-way that saw Curtis Granderson go to to the Yankees and Edwin Jackson head to Arizona.  There are some promising young players in the deal as well - Arizona trades Max Scherzer to Detroit, and New York sends Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to Detroit and Arizona, respectively.  New York is definitely capitalizing on its ability to absorb salary (from a team looking to shed it) to add a very solid up-the-middle player near his peak.  Dave Cameron gives an "A+" to NYY. 

- Brad Penny signed a one-year, $7.5M deal with St. Louis.  He's a big guy without a great health track record, but when you already have two Cy Young candidates and another decent starter, gambling on the upside of a hard-thrower like Penny isn't a bad idea.  Meanwhile, St. Louis continues to talk with Scott Boras about Matt Holliday, who is still presumably recovering from that ball striking his groin. 

- Peter Gammons is jumping from ESPN to MLB Network.  In my first job out of college there was a girl in my training class with the last name Gammons who had Mass. plates on her car.  I asked her if she was related to Peter Gammons; she answered she was not.  Somehow the relationship failed to blossom from there. 

- What would you guess Albert Pujols makes in endorsements?  Derek Jeter?

The second chapter of The Machine - "A show like they never seen before" - sets the stage for the 1975 season by describing the hiring of Sparky Anderson and the preceding offseason.  In spring training Sparky Anderson famously gave his "turds" speech:

"He announced that the Machine was made up of two different kinds of players.  First, there were the superstars.  To be more specific, Sparky said, there were four superstars - Pete Rose, Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, and Tony Perez.  Those four made their own rules....   Those four were royalty.

"The rest of you," Sparky said, "are turds."

It's arguable that the handling of egos and personalities on a baseball team is at least as important, if not more so, than the more strategic or technical aspects like lineup construction or bullpen use.  Sparky did not have failings in the latter categories - known as "Captain Hook," he was an early leader in modern bullpen usage, and of course there was no bad way to construct a lineup with those players.  But his deft handling of the superstar egos on the BRM might have been his most valuable trait.  What say you?  Would a manager who insisted on equality have failed to deliver the same success, or was the talent so overwhelming that it didn't matter who managed?  And how do you think Dusty compares to Sparky in this respect?  As much as I like to bag on Dusty, it seems as if he handled a delicate situation with Votto well this year.  And he also stuck with Bruce through some ugly slumps.  If these guys put up MVP caliber seasons in the near future, some of their success may very well be attributable to the toothpick chewin' fossil.


Sparky also told the club that "this team is like my television set.  Nobody messes with it."  Relief pitcher Will McEnaney's 30-year reflection on Spark's speech is priceless: "None of us ever knew what the fuck Sparky was talking about."

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Welcome to Red Reporter's second hurrah into some old-timey nerdery in the form of a book club.  This time we'll be reading Joe Posnanski's The Machine: A Hot Team, a Legendary Season, and a Heart-stopping World Series: The Story of the 1975 Cincinnati Reds.  As most of you know, Posnanski is a former Cincinnati Post reporter, current Sports Illustrated writer, and a Clevelander at heart.  I think he does a great job discussing the personalities and stories of the 1975 Reds, and if you have the means I highly recommend acquiring The Machine and giving it a read.  I'll try to post something every week or two covering a chapter of the book so that we finish the book before Opening Day. 

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Obama may not have been able to deliver Chicago the Olympics, but at least his hometown hosted the MLB Winter Meetings in his first year in office.  Not much activity thus far, but here are some rumblings:

• Per a Buster Olney Tweet (via mlbtraderumors.com), the Reds are shopping Coco hard. Olney's heard from other teams that the Reds would love to move closer Francisco Cordero. Of course, closers are plentiful and Cordero is set to earn $25MM over the next two years. The 25M does not include the 12M team option for 2012. As Coco has a no-trade clause, it's very possible that he would ask that the receiving team pick that up in exchange for waiving the clause. With other relievers available on the free agent market, I think he will be tough to move.
• John Heyman also reports that the Reds are big sellers, and list Coco, Brandon Phillips, and Bronson Arroyo as bait (HT to RijoSaboCaseyWKRP - see his FanPost for a good writeup of the Reds' contractual obligations going forward).  Heyman also mentions that Griffey will return to Seattle next year for 2M plus incentives.
• The Reds did just save a little money - maybe a million or so - when Micah Owings was found to have missed Super 2 status on a tiebreaker.  He had the same amount of service time as the Cubs' Mike Fontenot and the Orioles' Adam Jones, but Fontenot was awarded Super 2 because he had more service time in the immediately preceding season (2009).  Super 2 helps prevent teams from playing the service clock game by allowing 70% (ed: meant 17%) of players in their third year qualify for arbitration.  They otherwise receive whatever the club dictates, which is usually close to the leage minimum.
• If you didn't see it, the NL Gold Gloves were announced yesterday.  No Reds were named, meaning that Brandon Phillips lost his title (to Orlando Hudson).  Chase Utley has a pretty good case for the 2B GG as well.  The Silver Sluggers will be named tonight at 7 on the MLB Network.
• The Hardball Times has a writeup about the pitchers in the Arizona Fall League, including or own Mike Leake:  Mike Leake is a man of many arm angles. It makes pitch classification a little bit complicated, which I suspect hitters will also attest to.  There's also some PitchFX data posted that shows Leake's curve has a pretty good drop.   

Here are three facts about the Phillies, who finished the season at 93-69 to win the NL East by six games.  Two of these things are true, but one is a falsehood!  Which one say you?

1. With 119 stolen bases in 147 attempts, the Phillies topped the 80% SB success rate for the third year in a row.

2. They led the NL with 224 HRs.

3. They have the worst bullpen ERA of the four NL playoff teams.

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• Coaching changes afoot?
  After questioning Dusty Baker's ridiculous use of Francisco Cordero and Nick Masset for five consecutive days, Ken Rosenthal hints that there could be changes made to the Reds' coaching staff, including our favorite whipping boy: Hitting coach Brook Jacoby, meanwhile, presides over an offense that ranks 14th in runs per game even though Great American Ballpark is one of the best hitters' parks in the majors. Yet Jacoby, too, would be little more than a scapegoat — injuries and poor roster construction helped compromise the offense. I think the question should be which hitters have developed or regressed under Jacoby's tutelage. As an outside observer it's tough to say. Has Joey Votto blossomed because or in spite of the coaching? Has Jacoby affected Jay Bruce's development?
• Reds raise presence in Arizona
  The Reds' Instructional League starts today in Goodyear, Arizona. Fay reports that the minor leaguers are excited about the new and improved facilities, which is great to hear because so much is riding on our prospects. This marks the beginning of the Reds presence in Arizona after spending the last 63 years in Florida.
• 'Stros can Cooper
  Cooper has been managing the Astros since Aug. 27, 2007, and compiled a 171-170 record. As of Monday, the Astros had lost seven straight to fall to 70-79 and 16 1/2 games out of first place in the National League Central.  Cooper may be a poor tactician, but it's not as if this team was going anywhere with a rotation that falls off a cliff after the first two spots.  It's a strange roster in that they have a number of legitimately good players (Berkman, Lee, Pence, Rodriguez, Oswalt) and a few decent role players, but very little after that.  Their failure to construct a deeper roster is hardly the fault of Cooper.
• MLB Players Association considering grievance for Milton Bradley
  The Cubs will first have to "officially" suspend Bradley and provide its reasons before the MLBPA can appeal. At this point it's not even clear if the suspension is without pay. Things might be bad for Bradley, but at least his mother is still in his corner: "Milton sounded fine," Charlena Rector told the Chicago Tribune from her home in Long Beach, Calif. "He was raised in a Christian home. He believes that God don't make mistakes. ... And if that door in Chicago closes for him, he thinks another one will open. It always does."
• Perhaps the greatest pitching prospect in the world is about to become a free agent.
  Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman is awaiting MLB's decision on his application for free agnecy.  Chapman is 21, a lefty, and reportedly throws a 102 mph fastball (at this year's WBC).  Everyone gather around your TV sets while your favorite team watches the teams from New York, Boston, and Los Angeles throw enormous amounts of money at him.
• Obama Leaps Into Olympic Fray
  President Obama presided over a White House extravaganza to promote Chicago as the site for the 2016 Olympics, putting heft behind his hometown's bid. The other major contenders are believed to be Tokyo, Rio de Janeiro and Madrid. I'm a big fan of the Olympics and would love to see Chicago receive the games. It would at least be nice to make up for the shoddy Atlanta Olympics.
  
  

Fay: Jocketty on CF, SS and more
As posted by Dave from Louisville, Jocketty candidly discussed the 2010 roster with Fay over the weekend.  I like what he said. Stubbs and Janish will probably be Opening Day starters, and Walt describes Ramon Hernandez's option as "pretty big" while complimenting the performance of Hanigan and the reserves. There is, of course, talk about quest for a "quality RBI man," but Walt has shown good sense here in the past, turning down the Bailey-for-Dye swap before this season. I must have caught my spring optimism earlier than normal, because I think a lineup of Votto, Phillips, Janish, Rolen, Hanigan, Gomes/Dickerson, Stubbs, and Bruce has a good chance to be average or better in 2010.

Rotation update
Cueto's recovering from a flu-like malady (never understood the distinction between having the flu and "flu-like symptoms") and should start on Tuesday against the Pirates' Zach Duke. Homer and Bronson will follow, Lehr and Maloney will be skipped.  Lehr told Dick Pole that he needs rest because he's made about 41 starts this year between winter ball and the regular season. A little surprised to hear that from a guy who's position with the team is tenuous.

Baker frustrated by season of adversity
After a bit on injuries is an unenlightening discussion of team defense:  Baker has been pleased with the improvements the club has made, in particularly on defense, although it doesn't always reflect in the numbers.  The Reds currently rank 10th in the National League in fielding percentage.  "It doesn't tell the whole story," Baker said. "We're about in the middle of the pack. I like that we're near the top in double plays. If you can turn them and not hit into them, you've got a great chance."  As JinAZ wrote here, the Reds' defense has been very good this year and a huge improvement over prior seasons.  Sometimes I wonder if Dusty and I have been watching the same games. 

Bailey: '100 pitch limit is (crap)'
You'll have to visit Trent's article to see what Homer would have plugged in the parentheses. Word choice aside, Homer has a point about the arbitrary nature of modern pitch count management. I think he and most starting pitchers are capable of regularly exceeding 100 pitches.  It's just a question of how you build up their strength and stamina without creating an undue risk of injury or pushing a pitcher beyond the point of effectiveness. To his credit and contrary to his prior reputation, Baker has mostly done a good job ensuring that his younger starters stay on a conservative pitch count schedule and seems to stretch them only when they're mowing down inferior lineups, which is the right time to build stamina.

60 Seconds with Cincinnati Reds outfielder Chris Dickerson
If you're not aware of Chris Dickerson's environmental efforts, check this out.  Personally, I would've asked him what it felt like to see Taveras' name at the top of the lineup for most of the summer.

The corpse of Ken Griffey Jr. carries Mariners over Yankees
Junya has put up a feeble 215/322/394 line this season for the Mariners and turns 40 this winter. I haven't heard either way, but I have a hard time believing the Mariners would want him back next year at any price. If this is his last month of pro ball, at least he got to take down the Yankees one more time, hitting a HR and driving in 4 runs yesterday to close out the season series between the teams. Griffey supposedly has held a grudge against NYY since his childhood because Steinbrenner kicked him out of the clubhouse when his dad was a Yankee. True or not, Griffey has a .976 career OPS against New York (third best mark against an AL team, not including Seattle) and will of course be remembered for destroying them in the 1995 playoffs.  

Giants teen Villalona suspected of murder
Giants top prospect Angel Villalona has been detained in connection to a murder that occurred in the Dominican Republic on Saturday night, according to a report by the Associated Press.Potentially a huge setback for the Giants. Villalona, along with Pablo Sandoval and catcher Buster Posey, looked to form a very solid trio of young hitters. At least Ugueth Urbina waited until his career was finished.

Cubs suspend Milton Bradley for the rest of the season
Bradley, scratched from Saturday's lineup with a sore left knee, was quoted as saying "you understand why they haven't won in 100 years here."  Roasted! You may recall other articles from this season where Bradley calls out Cubs fans as racist. Needless to say, this hasn't been a happy marriage.  I was going to make a crack about going after a "quality RBI man," but Bradley's career high is only 77.  Makes sense given his long history of injuries and suspensions.