Subtitle: "Ma-sty Boy the second - as ma-sty as he wants to be"

Ryan Madson

Relief Pitcher / Cincinnati Reds

Height: 6-6

Weight: 200 (draft weight: 180)

Bats: feebly (L)

Throws: with strength and precision (R)

Age: 31 (b. Aug 28, 1980)

Born in: Long Beach, CA

Nicknames

Believe it or not, "Mad Dog" is his official bb-ref nickname. Other potentially creative nicknames include Ry-Dog, R-Mad, Ry-Ma, Mad Ryan, Mad Man, and Ryan California.

MLB Bio

• Madson was drafted out of high school by the Phillies in the 9th round of the 1998 draft. Also drafted in that round were Jack Wilson and Morgan Ensberg. The Reds took "Henry" Dave Therneau, who never made it to the big leagues.
  
• Madson almost exclusively started in the minors. By 2003, he was starting for the AAA Scranton team and looked ready to make the leap.
• Madson became a big league mainstay in 2004, though as a reliever and not as a starter. The Phillies already featured Eric Milton, Brett Myers, Vicente Padilla, Randy Wolf, Cory Lidle, and Kevin Millwood in their rotation. Madson appeared in 52 games (77 IP), posting a 9-3 record with a nearly 3 to 1 K:BB ratio, and an ERA of 2.34 (193 ERA+). He threw 87 innings in the following year but saw jumps in his hit and HR rates, and his ERA regressed to about league average.
• The Phillies gave The Mad Man a shot at the rotation in 2006, but it didn't stick. In 17 starts he posted an ERA above 6, less than 2 Ks per walk, and a scary HR ratio. "Mad Dog" lived up to his craaaa-zy nickname on July 25, 2006, when he threw four wild pitches in the third inning against the Diamondbacks. That tied the record for most wild pitches in an inning. The team moved him back to the 'pen for good in early August 2006 to make way for another young arm, Cole Hamels.
• Madson missed the stretch run and playoffs in 2007 but enjoyed a healthy and dominant year in 2008. He increased his velocity thanks to borrowing Jamie Moyer's strength routine (I'm picturing a raw egg for breakfast followed by tossing medicine balls and putting in a full day at the steel foundry) and was now able to ratchet up the ol' number one to as high as 97 m.p.h. He was a force in the playoffs, striking out 12 against one walk and one HR in 12 2/3 innings, as the Phillies marched to the top of the heap.
• With Brad Lidge ineffective and hurting for much of his post-championship Phillies career, the natural move was to anoint Madson as the team's new closer. But the team had reservations about Madson's closer mentality, and he didn't help matters with several blown saves in 2009 and 2010. Madson was a tepid 15 for 26 in save opportunities in those years despite excellent peripherals. He blew three saves in a five-day stretch in 2009, and he broke his toe while kicking a chair in frustration after a blown save in early 2010. Brad Lidge explains that Madson "was putting too much pressure on himself early in his career and when I was injured to be perfect out there. Now I think he realizes, 'Hey, I can trust myself.'"
• 2011 was a completely different story, as Madson got off to a blazing start and saved 32 games in 34 opportunities, while continuing to strike out about 4 batters per walk allowed. He also cut his HR rate in about half to an awfully impressive 0.3/9 IP (though we're talking about two versus four homeruns, which can easily be written off due to better weather or any number of other factors).
• Bottom line is that Madson has been a very good reliever during the past several years and a dominant one in the last two. According to ESPN, only eight relievers with at least 300 innings in the past five years have a lower ERA than Madson's 2.89 mark- and he's done that in a severe hitter's park. Over the past two seasons, Madson's posted a 2.45 ERA, a 126-15 strikeouts-unintentional walks ratio, and has allowed just 96 hits (and only 6 homeruns) in 113 2/3 innings.
• Madson's surprise signing with Cincinnati followed an intriguing winter which saw the Phillies reportedly back out of a four-year, $44M deal with their former closer. Enter Walt Jocketty and a shrewd one-year offer. Madson and agent Scott Boras are sure to test the market again next year, but hopefully the chip on Ryan's shoulder from failing to obtain an eight-figure deal will propel him to even greater heights in 2012.

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• I wouldn't get your hopes up about Roy Oswalt
  Walt said over the weekend that the Reds "had discussions with [Oswalt] a while ago." It's looking more and more that Texas and St. Louis - the reported frontrunners for geographic reasons - don't have the money to sign Oswalt. Fay suggests that trading Homer Bailey and his ~ $2.5M salary could be "risky" but would free up the money and roster spot to bring in Yosemite Roy.
  
  Another SP trade in the works is reportedly Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie for Colorado's Matt Lindstrom and Jason Hammel. Guthrie has had a perfectly cromulent baseballing career, but he's not anything I wished Jocketty had pursued in earnest. [ed.: done deal]
• RL Nation admires the Reds' production at Firstbase
  To kick off their position previews, Redleg Nation takes a look at the most stable spot on the Reds' roster. I'd like to see Votto's HR numbers return to their 2010 levels, but I'm obviously quibbling here - Joey Votto is one of the best players in baseball, and I agree that "[i]f anyone else gets significant time at first, it's going to be a problem."
• Mapping strike zone performance
  The strength in Joey Votto's hitting derives from his lack of a major weakness. Taking a look at these strike zone maps from the Blog Red Machine, you can see just how difficult it is to put away Votto unless you can paint the low-and-away corner with uncanny precision. Jay Bruce also struggles in that corner, but his weak spot looks to be triple the size of Votto's. Really good stuff here.
• The Fox Sports Ohio Rewind broadcasts start tonight, as a reminder
  2011 OD kicks it off tonight at 7. Come by 'round these parts during the game. We'll have a thread and everything.
• The 2012 Topps are out
  And OMGReds shows us the "Mike Leake v. Gapper" limited edition card. The "Topps so crazy" line also includes the now infamous "Schumaker-as-Squirrel" depiction and, by internet rumor, a NC-17 "Pat Burrell is The Machine" card.

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• The Caravan swung to Columbus
  "It's a swing city, really," Reds chief operating officer Phil Castellini said during a stop at Polaris Fashion Place mall in Columbus. Leading the Caravan to C-bus was Brandon Phillips and catching wunderkind Devin Mesoraco, who was glad to get a few more questions this year: "I get more questions now, it seems like. In the past when I was with Brandon [Phillips], he'd get all the questions. More people know who I am, I guess." BP then deadpanned "get me a Coke, groundhog," grinning and elbowing Thom Brennaman in the ribs. For pictures and Caravan wrap-ups, check out the fine work at OMGreds and Red Hot Mama.
• Commercially viable Reds
  The offseason is about selling tickets and selling out, and plenty of Reds have shilled for Corporate America over the years. Redlegs Review runs down some old television endorsements by Reds for products like Aqua Velva, Krylon Paint, and Pepsi, which tastes the worst of the three.
• "So you're telling me there's a chance"
  According to the Vegas bookmakers, the Reds are now a 25-1 shot for winning the WS and a 9-1 for taking the NL pennant. Sounds reasonable, no? (If I could short any of these, I'd bet against Miami to win the Series at 15-1.) But maybe some pessimism is in order. Redleg Nation ran some fancy algorithms based on the Reds' ZiPS projections, and spat out a 84-78 season. Then again, Reds Net Live thinks that simply avoiding last year's injury bug will be the difference-maker. Who's right?
• How would you improve baseball?
  May as well take advantage of an uneventful week in baseball to muse about what could make it better. I'm not crazy about some of these suggestions, but I've long been behind Christina Kahrl's idea to make relievers face off against more than just one batter: Her proposal: "Any pitcher has to face a minimum of three batters in an inning or complete that inning before he may be removed from a game.... The goal is to cut down on the shuffling from the 'pen and the interminable committee meetings that can make the last three innings of action in a ballgame seem anything but active." I'm all in favor of speeding up the game. To set up somewhat of a straw-man, purists who oppose efforts to speed up games are mistaken that history favors their view. Before night games, umpires routinely prodded players to hurry up the action to avoid calling games for darkness.
• Barry's in Brazil
  Hall of Famer Barry Larkin, with some other former players and with assistance from MLB International, is hosting Elite Camps next month in Brazil to instruct the best junior (14-17) talent in the area. Good to see MLB extending its reach down there, because according to baseball-reference there have been no MLB players from Brazil, Argentina, or Peru. That's less than Russia (8!), Austria-Hungary (4), Saudi Arabia (1), and "Atlantic Ocean" (1?).

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• Leake lands on Verducci's List
  For the third year in a row, a Red makes the dreaded Verducci List and is now doomed to an injury-riddled season. Meh. I think Mike Leake is a different story from Homer Bailey and Travis Wood. For one, he just barely passed the 30-inning increase threshold required to make the list. Second, the Reds closely monitored Leake’s pitch count in 2011, capping him at 114 pitches and letting him go over 100 in just eight starts. Third, Leake does not have a violent throwing motion or otherwise display poor mechanics. Still, you never know with young pitchers. The Reds could certainly use 180 quality innings from Leake to shore up the middle of the rotation.
• Peering into the Mat Latos crystal ball
  The SweetSpot Blog compiles a list of similar 23 year-old pitchers, and then looks at how they did the next four seasons. Of the 18 comps, there's an array of below-average (Jeremy Bonderman) to the divine (Pedro). But who are the most relevant comps? Like Latos, Andy Benes stood 6-foot-6 and threw hard. He also came up with the Padres. Benes remained a solid pitcher (155 wins) but never took his game to the next level. So Reds fans can perhaps hope for the CC Sabathia career path. Through age 23, Sabathia had already pitched four seasons in the big leagues, with a 4.12 ERA. He improved his strikeout and walk rates at age 24, improved even more at age 25 and won a Cy Young Award at age 26.
• Marty and Thom to broadcast "multiple" games together next year
  Aww! The father-son pair will work together in the radio booth for three or four series. No word yet on whether George Grande, Sean Casey, and some of the other part-timers will return in 2012.
• 10 things you've already forgotten about Sean Marshall
  The Enquirer brings the arcania you've been craving on the Reds' new lefty fireman. Like fellow southpaw Bill Bray, Marshall went to college in Virginia, at VCU. Unlike Bray, he leads his school's alums in major league Wins (with 32). But he's well behind the Reds' all-time Wins leader for a graduate from a Virginia college: Eppa Rixey (Virginia, '12) tallied 266 Wins en route to the Hall of Fame.
• The Trade of all Trades - 40 years later
  The Reds fleeced Houston on Nov. 29, 1971, obtaining the final quarter of the Great 8 as well as a valuable pitcher. Who did Houston get? Lee May and 2B/LFJimmy Stewart, who sounds as polite as his name suggests. Stewart on leaving the Reds: "Our two kids, 5 and 7 years old, they were doing great in school and really liked it here, and I loved playing for the Reds. Loved everything about 'em. Loved the way they ran things, right on down to the no facial hair. First class. Yes sir, I hated leaving the Reds." Stewart later came back to Cincinnati - as a scout. Erardi notes that it was Stewart "who wrote the famous scouting report on Oakland before the World Series that convinced Reds manager Lou Piniella that the Reds would upset the A's."

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• So why has Ryan Madson been so effective?
  The answer, as you may know, is his changeup: Last season, Madson got 44 left-handed hitters out with his changeup .... He allowed only two hits and one walk (to Prince Fielder) with the pitch. The article also notes that Madson's change gets 10" of break (very good), generating a lot of swings even though it usually fell outside of the zone. 'mache also marvels at Madson's changeup: This comes in on average at 10 mph slower than Madson’s mid-90s fastball, and last season, induced a 33% swing and miss rate in batters.... Essentially, 1 in every 3 pitches Madson throws is a changeup. 1 in every 3 changeups is a whiff. That’s pretty good. The MLB average FOR CHANGEUPS was around 12% swing-and-miss last year.
• For the fluffy, human interest side of the Madson signing, here's a 2011 interview
  What do closers do when they're not closing? I rock crawl.... In Southern California, and that’s all we did: Drive trucks and climb hills and rocks. You’ve got a cage surrounding you, and you’re going a mile an hour. If you get into trouble, you just tip over. If you're looking for a more business-y article on how Madson's deal reflects on the closer market, Tom Verducci talks about why teams are paying less for relievers. He also notes that we still don't know whether there will be an extra wildcard in 2012.
• The new Ma-sty Boy?
  On Friday, the Reds signed to minor league deals a couple of lefty relievers - Ron Mahay and Clay Zavada. The 40-year-old Mahay-Mahay is well-traveled, having pitched for 8 teams in a 14-year career. He owns a 3.83 career ERA (120 ERA+) and rates of 1.7 K/BB and 1.2 HR/9. He spent all of 2011 in the minors. Zavada had a solid 2009 but has spent the past two years in the minors. Walt: "It's more for depth." 2r2d notes that with the signing of Zavada, Sam LeCure has gained a potential mustache buddy and/or rival.
• Sheldon looks at what could be the next moves
  We've been over the fairly uninspiring list of potential Leftfielders. I'm partial to Kosuke Fukudome, who gets on base and may be able to maintain effectiveness throughout an entire season if he's given enough rest. But the pickings are slim here. Dave Cameron suggests a trade for Seth Smith, which sounds like a good idea but obviously depends on Colorado's willingness.

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Today at 2:00, we'll find out whether Barry Larkin becomes a baseball immortal or if he has to wait another year. I've already expressed my cautious optimism on Barry's chances based on him being the top returning candidate. But there are a few other characters with him on the ballot worth mentioning. Below are my hypothetical choices, which include six "yes" votes in addition to Larkin. The "ahead in line" guys are better players who aren't in the Hall, while the "better than" crew is my stab at similar but inferior players who are already enshrined.

"YES"

Jeff Bagwell: 80 WAR, 2,150 games, .297/.408/.540, 149 OPS+.
His numbers are rock-solid, so let's get right to the PEDs issue. What we know about steroids as it pertains to Bagwell is: (1) he's a pretty big dude who displayed HOF power over a 15-year career; (2) he was not a ballyhooed minor league prospect; (3) there's no evidence whatsoever that he used; and (4) MLB did not test for PEDs until 2006, after Bagwell retired. The last point is easily the most important to me. While I'm not happy with the rampant use of steroids during the Selig Sillyball era, it's hypocritical to now punish players suspected of juicing when the league, players, media, corporate sponsors, fans - everybody - all willingly turned a blind eye to it. If voters want to ding those that have actually tested positive under the official program implemented in 2006, then fine. But withholding votes for the merely suspected players represents a discomforting whitewashing of baseball history. If I visit the Hall in ten years and guys like Bagwell and Barry Bonds aren't in the plaque room, it will feel disingenuous.

Ahead in line: Nobody. Bagwell is pretty clearly the best 1B not yet in the Hall, McGwire included.

Better than: Plenty, including Eddie Murray, Willie McCovey, and Tony Perez.

Alan Trammell: 67 WAR, 2,293 games, .285/.352/.415, 110 OPS+
You probably know that Trammell compares well with Larkin, falling just behind Barry in WAR (by two wins) and OPS+ (by six points). Trammell in fact comes up as the most similar player in baseball history on Larkin's bb-ref page. It's a mystery why he has done so poorly with the voters, but my guess is that stiffer competition during Trammell's prime made him look worse than he was. Larkin passed Ozzie Smith for good as the NL's best Shortstop around 1990 and didn't have a serious challenger for the rest of the decade. And from 1992 to 1996, Larkin was the best Shortstop in the game. Meanwhile, Trammell's peak (1980-1990) almost perfectly coincided with Cal Ripken Jr.'s (who won MVPs in 1983 and 1991). Through 1984, Trammell was also overshadowed by Robin Yount, the AL MVP in 1982.

One other point - Trammell finished his career much worse than Larkin. Larkin accumulated 32 WAR after turning 30, while Trammell tallied only 18. It's possible that Trammell's final, mediocre impressions haven't sat well with the writers.

Ahead in line: Nobody. And unless Trammell starts making a serious run in his last few years on the ballot, he'll remain the standard for Shortstops on the outside looking in.

Better than: Luis Aparicio, Pee Wee Reese, Phil Rizzuto, probably others.

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• No news on the contract fronts for BP, Coco
  The Reds offered Francisco Cordero a one-year deal, which he's mulling over. Fay guesses it's for $7M. Meanwhile, the team and Brandon Phillips' agent should resume talking this month for the first time since the Winter Meetings and since the Detroit bloggerati have considered a Tigers' move for El Beeperino.
• Sheldon has a mid-winter update on the state of the franchise
  Among other issues, he talks about the situation in LF: The Reds still have a move to make in this area, but whoever is added, he would likely form a platoon with right-handed hitter Chris Heisey. Complicating things a little is that Heisey is actually stronger vs. right-handed pitchers (.288 lifetime) than lefties (.180). If the Reds can't get someone of note, Heisey will have a great chance to make his case to be an everyday player.
• This guy thinks the Reds are the team to beat in the Central
  Also, over the weekend I saw the talking heads on MLBN give lines for various teams. I think they set it at 85 wins for the Reds. I'd take the over, but it's close.
• The Blog Red Machine takes a close look at Homer
  One aspect about Homer Bailey that's escaped my attention is his increased strand rate. It's easy to dismiss for sample size reasons a one-year fluke, but Homer has now stranded at least 71% of runners for three straight seasons. This follows strand rates in the low 60s for his first two years. This indicates a marked improvement in pitching from the stretch and perhaps better mound presence.
• If you've wondered about the Reds' cable deal in the wake of the Angels' free agency frenzy,
  Fay reports here that the current deal with Fox Sports Ohio runs through 2018. The team can't disclose the dollars involved, but Fay believes it's in the neighborhood of $10M a year. That's pretty bad. As reference points, the Tigers receive four times that amount, and the Angels' new deal will pay them $150M a year. While the Reds obviously play in a small media market, they still draw good ratings (the fifth best in baseball last year according to the article, though I assume that's a percentage of the market rather than the absolute number of viewers). We frequently talk about the dangers of teams offering players long-term deals, but the Reds' current cable deal is costing them much more than any player contract ever could.

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Saves by Francisco and homers by Votto,
"Blogging since 1869" was our motto,
Trades for pitching that promise us rings,

These are a few of my favorite things.

It might have been a forgettable baseball season for the Reds this year. But outside of the frustrating one-run losses and bases-loaded strikeouts which #occupied way too much of my attention, there was plenty to celebrate in the greater world. And not just inconsequential events like political revolutions or the end of a war, but important things like movies, music, and video games. Jamie Ramsey polled various Reds about their favorites in 2011 - here's a snippet:

• Latos: Favorite "Thing" - Getting a late birthday gift of being traded to a talented team ready to compete!
• Heisey: Favorite "Thing" - Shooting my buck in Arkansas with Travis Wood. (check out the pic)
• Homer: Favorite Video Game - Video games are making kids FAT and LAZY, I dont play them.

So what were some of your favorite things in 2011?

There's been plenty of reaction around the media, blogosphere, and twitterverse to the Reds' acquisition of Mat Latos. RSC's excellent Latos White Paper is a necessary read about the team's new number 2 (1?) starter. Below are some older articles that help explain how Latos has become one of baseball's most promising younger pitchers, while shedding some light on his reportedly mercurial nature:

- This early scouting report discusses some of the makeup questions that have dogged Latos since high school. The Padres took a chance on him in the 11th round of the 2006 draft, but still waited to sign him for nearly a year (which is no longer permitted). Latos exhibited enough maturity while pitching for a Florida community college to convince the Padres to pay him a $1.25M signing bonus.

- During Latos' breakout 2010 campaign, he received plenty of media focus on his meteoric rise to stardom. This Yahoo article sums up the maturation process:

He stopped yelling at teammates for making errors, stopped snatching at return throws from the catcher when he believed an umpire missed a call, and toned down the self-loathing when he didn't perform up to his own expectations. "I learned to breathe through my eyelids," he said. "When I was younger, I always had an excuse. Now, I throw a pitch and I can accept that I made a mistake and somebody hit it. How can I be mad at somebody else on the field? I'm never going to be perfect, so how can I expect anybody else to be perfect?" "I still have that hotness in me. There are plenty of times I want to let it out."

- Latos received some tough love from a Padres minor league instructor early in his career. It very well be responsible for the growth that enabled him to succeed in the big leagues:

Latos got away with his me-first attitude until he collided with Padres roving pitching instructor Mike Couchee.... After a poor bullpen session one day, Latos and Couchee bickered until Couchee decided he'd had enough. He asked Latos if he would be mouthing off like this to Padres manager Bud Black. Latos said no. "Then grow up," Latos remembers Couchee telling him, "and go about your business as if you were in the majors." "A light turned on," Latos said. "I decided to quit acting like I was 16 years old."

- ESPN the Magazine also went into some depth about Latos' new-found maturity in 2010. Latos' professional nadir may have occurred during a game in Cincinnati, shortly after his 2009 big league call-up:

[Heath] Bell had little patience for such an attitude that day in Cincinnati, and almost immediately after hearing Latos, he yelled, "Listen to us! We know what we're doing here. You're a talented pitcher but we can make you that much better. You walk around here like you're a veteran thinking like you're somebody. You have to be humble. We have to work as a team."

It's a long but interesting article, and well worth the read.

After the jump, other hot stove news.

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• Team Braun preps defense strategy
  Ryan Braun will appeal his positive test at an arbitration hearing in January. His legal team isn't divulging their strategy yet, but there are hints at what will be argued: "The early-October test that was positive for Braun revealed such an abnormally, almost off-the-charts level of testosterone, it can be argued as being invalid or tainted.... When apprised of the positive result a couple of weeks later, Braun requested an immediate retesting, which was normal. So, he could argue that so much testosterone could not have completely disappeared over that time frame, which of course can be debated." The author claims that players are 0-12 in PED test appeals, but old friend Will Carroll disagrees.
• Whatever the arbitration panel decides, the BBWAA will not be taking a re-vote of the 2011 NL MVP award.
• Tom Verducci names the winners of the winter meetings
  Among them: "Regional sports networks. Twelve months ago Moreno was complaining about Carl Crawford money (seven years, $142 million.) What changed? He lined up a new local TV deal that could pay him almost twice the current annual rate of $50 million -- even with the second-worst ratings in baseball. Sports programming is hot. It provides loads of content and, most importantly, content that is DVR-proof." Maury Brown talks more about Anaheim's new revenue streams: "$150 million represents the value of the Lakers television deal and the proposed new Angels deal with Fox. This would give the Angels the third-largest television revenue after the Yankees and Red Sox for the time being. The team will bring in over a billion dollars in television revenue over the life of the contract."
• Sheldon recaps the winter meetings
  Walt Jocketty offers a helpful dose of optimism: "We've made significant progress in a couple of directions with clubs. I feel confident we'll still get something done this winter." There's also some video of Jocketty discussing the Votto negotiations.
• With some money to burn after losing Pujols, the Cardinals re-signed Rafael Furcal for two years, $14M
  Not a bad deal at all - if he stays healthy.
• Tender is the day
  Today is the deadline for the team to offer arbitration to those eligible: Jose Arredondo, Bill Bray, Homer Bailey, Paul Janish, Nick Masset and Edinson Volquez. Fay suspects that the team will tender all six contracts, with the possible exception of Janish. He also suggests the Reds go after Ryan Theriot, who may not be tendered by St. Louis. Pass.

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Barry Larkin is the top returning candidate on this year's Hall of Fame ballot. The writers have elected at least one player in every year since 1996. So this must mean that Larkin's getting elected, right?

Well, I hope so. Larkin appeared on 62.1% of the ballots last year, up from 51.5% in his 2010 debut. Getting another 13% is certainly attainable and perhaps even likely, but it's far from certain. Here's what's going in his favor:

• He's incredibly well-qualified. You probably agree if you're reading this blog, but if you're looking for a robust, objective analysis, JinAZ made a strong case here.
• He was recognized as a great player during his career. Some players are diamonds in the rough who generate interesting HOF discussions because they were much more valuable than their lack of All-Star Game appearances and postseason hardware suggest (see Tim Raines). Larkin is not one of those cases. He made the All-Star Game twelve times, won nine Silver Sluggers, three Gold Gloves, and an MVP. That's a pretty good indication that he was correctly recognized as among the best for a very long time. Interestingly, no eligible player picked for at least 12 NL all-star teams has failed to make the HOF.
• Much of the HOF dialogue should focus on Larkin because he is the top returning candidate and the only one with a puncher's chance of enshrinement this ballot cycle. This is key for Larkin, since he did many things well but nothing that screamed "Hall of Famer" (like Tony Gwynn's batting average, or Ozzie Smith's defense). Last year, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe wrote that he changed his vote to a "yes" for Larkin, an "acquired taste for me because he is not the kind of player you automatically ascribe Hall of Fame status to. Some voters believe that if you have to think about it, the player isn't worthy. But we owe it to the process to think about it.... From 1986-2004, Larkin was pretty much the most productive shortstop in all of baseball. That's a long time at a premium position." Hopefully other writers give it some thought and reach the inevitable conclusion that Larkin, among the ten best Shortstops in the game's history, is a no-brainer.
• The writers' HOF ballot this year is particularly weak. After Larkin, the top returning candidate is Jack Morris with 53.5%. I don't see much growth for Morris because he seems to be a litmus test on pitcher clutchiness, the kind of guy people have a strong opinion about one way or the other. The top debut on the ballot is Bernie Williams, a very good outfielder before he fell off a cliff in his early 30s. You might think he'll get a bump as a True Yankee, but that sure hasn't helped Don Mattingly. As I mentioned above, the writers are known for agreeing on at least one guy. They haven't pitched a shutout since 1996, when Phil Niekro topped the balloting with 68%.

via farm8.staticflickr.com

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It’s been reported that Yu Darvish, pitching ace for Japan’s Nippon-Ham Fighters*, will become available to MLB teams by the posting process. This means the team must pay twice – once for the right to talk to his agent, and again for the actual contract. There’s no risk to a team submitting a bid because you don’t pay the post if the player won’t agree to a contract. This happened to Oakland last year when they successfully bid on the right to negotiate with Hisashi Iwakuma with a $19.1M post, but failed to reach an agreement with pitcher.

For some U.S. fans, this has been a long time coming. The 25 year-old Darvish is the best pitcher in Japan by a longshot. What that portends for his MLB performance is a potentially $100M question. Daisuke Matsuzaka, the last Sawamura Award (Japan's CYA) winner to come to the U.S., had two very good years for Boston before injuries (perhaps exacerabated by a communication breakdown with Boston) derailed his MLB career.

The Replacement Level Yankee Blog has done yeoman's work in looking at the NPB stats of Daisuke, Darvish, and several other imports. Read the entire piece, but the takeaway is that Daisuke's ERA and FIP in the three seasons before arriving were in the low and mid-2's. Darvish's FIP over the past three seasons? 1.88. Yowzas.

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• Jocketty's going elephant hunting for a starting pitcher
  At Redsfest, Jocketty announced that "there are six pitchers that we've targeted that we feel are top-of-the-rotation guys, potentially. They might be threes now, and could be twos. We've talked to all the clubs and exchanged things with some, not to the point we're close to anything." Jocketty of course could not identify any of them in accordance with the league's tampering rules.
• No mo' Coco?
  Fay speculates that the Reds "hold little hope of re-signing Francisco Cordero. The way the closer market has settled, the Reds might be able to get Cordero back at one-year deal in the $7 million range. But I wouldn't even do that. I'd stay in house. Try Bill Bray first. If he doesn't work out, turn to Sam LeCure or Jose Arredondo or Brad Boxberger." Fay suggests Edinson Volquez as another candidate, which is a sensible idea that we've been kicking around here. One suggestion that won't fly with Baker is closer-by-committee. It's truly amazing how baseball survived before the Save era.
• Fay also writes that the Reds are likely to extend Brandon Phillips, but not Dusty Baker. An extension for El Beeperino will likely defer some dollars. I'll withhold judgment until I see the years and dollars, but without an heir apparent at the keystone I think this is a good idea. Jocketty told Fay that it's a "complicated contract" and will take some time to complete. As for Baker, Fay believes that David Bell's promotion was a telling move by the organization. Agreed. Baker has vowed not to speak about contract issues this coming year. Good idea.
• Arroyo feels the need for more speed
  Bronson Arroyo thinks he has the cure for his woeful 2011 season: velocity. "All I'm looking for is more velocity. They can say all they want that velocity doesn't mean anything. But there's world of difference between 86 and 91. I'm not going to lose the ability to get people out and the feel for my breaking ball. I'm trying to my body strong and get that velocity back." BA's fastball averaged 87.0 mph last year, down 1.0 from 2010 and 1.5 from 2009. We shall see if the back and hip exercises Arroyo discusses are of any help.
• Mike Leake is resolved to pitch more innings
  He'd like to throw 200 innings in 2012. To work on his endurance, Leake built a gym inside the garage of his house this winter and will start throwing earlier. "I felt strong last year coming off of the end of the year. I'm sticking to the same routine. I'm throwing about a half a month earlier this time. Last year ended with a little bit of tightness."
• No Coz for concern about the elbow
  Zack Cozart's promising call-up was cut short when he fractured his non-throwing elbow. It sounds like the TJ surgery and rehab have gone well: "I can start swinging, throwing, taking groundballs. I'm pumped. I told my wife I was so excited. People still want there offseason, but I'm ready to play in like a month." Baker said he won't fully commit to Cozart as the starter until he sees in ST how well the elbow has healed: "But No. 1, we want to reserve that a little bit to see how his health is and how his arm holds out." This sounds more like lip service because the team is actively shopping for a backup SS. The team made a bid on Ramon Santiago, who elected to re-sign with Detroit.
• In other medical news, Chris Valaika was cleared to run and throw following surgery to repair his ruptured ACL. Also, future Reds' SS Billy Hamilton apparently fractured one of his hands in winter ball.
• Meso is humble, hungry
  But Devin Mesoraco not taking anything for granted: "Hanigan's proven what he can do and I haven't really done anything yet. I can't imagine I'm just going to jump to the top. I've got to prove myself before I get any starts."
• Alonso must be really hungry, because he's lost 18 pounds
  "I've been working really hard. Ever since I went home, I started doing my thing. So far, it's been working out. I start on Monday with my outfield stuff. I started my hitting last week. It's going to be fun." Sheldon notes that Alonso recovered quickly from arthroscopic surgery to clean out his knee and healed from a sore ankle that cut his 2011 season a little short in late September.
• Stubbs is ready to put a frustrating 2011 behind him
  He also notes that he and several other teammates were in the Bahamas a few weeks ago for Laynce Nix's wedding.

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• New Labor Agreement could be announced tomorrow
  According to the Biz of Baseball: "The deal will include a luxury tax around the amateur draft bonus system, and changes to how compensation for premium free agents are reached. " The plan is to tax teams that go over a set limit in total draft spending for the year, rather than make a "hard slot" number for any individual pick.  Other changes include a raise in the minimum salary (from $414k to $480k) and hGH testing, but the sides ultimately did not agree to accept a tax on teams that fail to reach a salary floor, which is too bad. Finally, Tom Verducci reports in the link below that we might see the expanded playoffs as soon as 2012.
• Ken Rosenthal thinks the Commish and the Union's leaders deserve a lot of credit, and he's right of course. But baseball, much more than the other sports, benefits by having already fought it's ugliest labor wars that culminated under Bud's watch during the strike of '94-'95. The other sports don't have the same historical backdrop that gives their stakeholders the perspective shared by those in baseball.  
• One change to the new labor agreement is fewer "Type A" free agents
  From what I'm reading, they're doing away with the whole Elias set of rankings and may even determine Type A's by the value of their new contract, which is shockingly reasonable.  Reportedly among those affected is Francisco Cordero. The upshot here is the signing team won't have to forfeit its own pick to sign Coco. The rule change is particularly critical for relievers because it's usually the teams that don't have protected first-round picks (i.e., bottom half of the round) that are looking to sign closers. Any smart team is understandably wary about forfeiting its highest pick for a relief pitcher.  All that said, my guess is the Reds don't offer arbitration.  He's coming off a great year and a high salary, meaning there's a very good chance that he makes something close to the $12M he earned this past season. 
• Tom Verducci plays "what if" for the '06 draft
  We've done our share of teeth-gnashing over the Reds passing of Tim Lincecum to select Drew Stubbs with the no. 8 pick, but comparatively the Reds did pretty well here.  The Dodgers took Clayton Kershaw right before the Reds, so six teams passed on not just one but two future CYA winners.  All but one of them (Tampa, which selected Eva Longoria) took pitchers, and that group as a whole has a -1.0 WAR to date.  
• Verducci also notes that it was the players who pushed strongest for a 15-15 league split, which I found surprising:  "The biggest complaints from players have been brutal travel schedules -- many of the problems are caused by interleague play -- and the inequity of intradivision rivals playing very different interleague schedules."  Starting in 2013, we should see fewer marquee interleague series but the same number of games (18).  That might make sense from a scheduling equity perspective, but it doesn't make for great business.  The Indians series is one of the biggest gate draws of the year, and it's a shame if Cleveland and Cincinnati will have to trade it off.  
• Christina Karhl has doubts about the Reds' rotation
  I don't agree with everything here, but it's hard to dispute the overarching theme that the rotation depth means the Reds have difficult choices to make. Should Travis Wood be given another shot? Edinson Volquez? Or is the solution external?  If so, Karhl is not optimistic about the Braves' Jair Jurrjens. "Jurrjens is also someone most statheads expect to see take a tumble in 2012, by as much as a full run given a 3.95 FIP to his 2.96 ERA. That’s assuming that the right knee that has shelved him three times in two years holds up, and that’s without getting to an additional pair of DL stints in the last two years for injuries to an oblique and a thigh... If Jurrjens is the solution, maybe it's the decision-making process that tells the Reds to go after him that is the problem." 
• Captain Hook's legacy pays dividends for the Reds
  Sparky Anderson earned the nickname for going to his bullpen early and often, but the Reds have apparently continued his legacy to the present day. Here, Mitchel Litchtman does the heavy lifting to show that it's better on the whole to pinch hit for your starter in high-leverage situations after the pitcher has thrown at least five innings. In 2010, Dusty was in the middle of the pack when it came to "total wins lost" under this metric (1.01). But from 2005 through 2010, the Reds lost the fewest wins in the NL (4.3).  
• The Blog Red Machine looks at the Central's bullpen performance  
  The above study doesn't account for bullpen strength or fatigue, which seemed to plague the Reds' 'pen down the stretch.  But by the BRM's count, the Reds' relievers still had the third-best ratio of successful relief outings in the division. The big story in the division was Milwaukee's amazing turnaround following the K-Rod trade.  
• Nick Masset has a large "swing area"
  Which is simply defined as "the size of the area in which pitchers are getting swings."  The better the bigger, because you want hitters chasing your stuff all over the place. Masset finished fourth in baseball last year, and the names on the leaderboard are generally good company. We've talked about Masset's up-and-down 2011, but I'm coming around to a rebound the more I think about it. 

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• The Reds have no money and are talking to nobody
  Walt Jocketty checked again under the couch cushions, but the money for a splashy free agent signing isn't there. Per Fay, Jocketty spent last week in budget meetings and hasn't even reached out to representatives for Phillips or Cordero. He'll be in Milwaukee this week for the GM meetings (the winter meetings, when most of the action occurs, is next month). "We’d love to [sign C.J. Wilson or Jose Reyes] but we won’t be doing anything like that. We’ve got to be more creative."
• Brodie Greene shines; other Fall League notes
  Brodie Greene, a middle-IF who spent most of the season at Bakersfield, drove in three on Saturday with a couple of hits in an 8-2 Desert Dogs win. In 19 AFL games, Brodie's slashing .301/.386/.466 with 13 RBIs. Meanwhile, Brad Boxberger pitched a scoreless inning in the Futures Game.  Foxy Boxy blogged that he managed to "not make my parents and girlfriend in the stands too nervous" with a 1-2-3 inning. Carson Cistulli notes that the age-advanced Travis Webb has made a strong showing in Arizona this fall.  Finally, over in the Dominican League, Juan Francisco is devouring opposing pitchers to the tune of .322/.380./559.  

• SI suggests Roy Oswalt on a one-year deal
  I have my doubts about a smallish, mid-30s pitcher with a bad back. But for one year, it could be worth a shot depending on what Dr. Kremchek has to say. 150 innings with a low-3 ERA might not be the ace we crave, but it would be a boost to the rotation.

• Masset's tough year
  2011 is one to forget for Nick Masset, but I'm confident we're going to see a rebound. Sheldon points out that the Masset-hound got only four DPs last year, compared to seven in 2010 and 11 in his first full year with the Reds. Given that Masset induced slightly more grounders (50%) in 2011 than in 2010 (47%), I think the fewer DPs was just bad luck. A BABIP forty points higher than 2010 and four balks, which was four more than in the prior two years combined, also point to bad luck. But Masset's performance is worth a closer look given his unusually broad repertoire, decreased K-rate, and his importance to the bullpen. Dusty: "In the case of Masset, it's more of missed location and pitch selection to me, versus a loss of stuff." 

• #GQSwagShawty at the Golden Gloves
  Brandon Phillips displayed his haute couture at the GG ceremony, in what can charitably be described as a non-subtle three-piece. Oh well.  Not everyone can dress like Steve Nash.  If BP is looking towards relocating to a fashion-forward Canadian market, Toronto might be a good the only choice.   According to this Toronto writer, Phillips is "available."  There's no cite, not even the oft-quoted Unnamed Source.  My guess is that he doesn't realize the Reds picked up the option.

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• Doc takes Stubbs to task for the Ks
  Saying that Stubbs would be a better player if he struck out less is both a fair and obvious point. But Doc goes about it in a comically critical fashion: "Choking up is a Man-Card violation. It’s the hardball equivalent of drinking a beer with fruit in it. Skinny shortstops who couldn’t hit a 400-foot flyball with a rocket muscle up at the plate and swing from the radio booth. And fly out routinely." I pretty much stopped after seeing a professional journalist write about man-cards and fruiting the beer.  But more substantively, it's not as if the organization hasn't tried to make Texarkana Slim into a Slappy McSlapperson in the minors.  It just didn't work.
  
  This part was also illuminating: "Drew Stubbs probably has never heard of [Harry] Walker or [Matty] Alou. They’re both dead now, which complicates things." It does? "Alou died Thursday at age 72, of diabetes. Walker died 12 summers ago. Each could be linked to Stubbs’ future." Now it's more clear. Bring down the strikeouts, Drew, lest you be stricken with diabetes in forty-five years.
• Aaron Cook is interested in a homecoming
  Aaron Cook told Denver reporter Jim Armstrong that he's interested in talking with San Diego and Cincinnati this offseason. The 2011 Rockie and Hamilton HS product strikes out hitters less frequently than even Arroyo, but doesn't walk many and is a groundball-generating machine. As a long-man/spot starter, Cook might make some sense. But he's going to have to take a paycut from the $9.8M he earned last season.  HT to BBTF.
  
  Armstrong, incidentally, left the Denver Post late last week after being named as a prominent client of a Denver sports bookie.
• Brennaman goes to bat for Bruce's glove
  In last week's "Reds Hot Stove League," Marty Brennaman surprisingly supported Jay Bruce's ultimately unsuccessful candidacy for the Gold Glove. "[Bruce] should have won it last year. There is no better right fielder defensively in this league than Jay Bruce." This was nice to hear and in contrast to the steady criticisms Marty lodged at Bruce last season about his Ks and consistency.  HT to Bleacher Report.
• R.I.P., Bob Forsch
  One week after throwing out the first pitch of Game 7, Bob Forsch passed away late last week. For the last three seasons, he was the pitching coach for the Reds' Class A rookie league affiliate in Billings. As a player, he pitched for 16 years and won 168 games, including the only two no-hitters at Busch II. The link reviews Forsch's playing highlights, of which there were many. 

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Congrats to the Cardinals.  As galling as it was to watch them dogpile on Friday night, you certainly have to give the players and organization credit for one of the most unlikely triumphs of both the regular season and playoffs.  At some point I recalled how the Reds' 2010 division championship was given short shrift because of a poor record against the league's traditional heavyweights, like St. Louis (6-12).  Well, this year they succeeded in getting the upper hand against the Cardinals (9-6), and they also played the Brewers to a respectable draw (8-8).  I would gladly trade a worse record against those teams for a 35-10 whoopin of Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Houston.

• Keith Law (Insider) scouts Aroldis at the AFL
  Law reports that Aroldis Chapman looked great in his first outing thanks to his fastball but much less so in his second, when his slider didn't have much bite. Chapman threw just one change-up during the two appearances. He's got one more start today before heading to winter ball for more work as a starer.
• Foster, Marty reflect on 1975 Series
  Mark Sheldon talked to George Foster and Marty Brennaman after Game 6 to get a sense for what might be going on in the Rangers' minds.  Marty had some interesting memories about Sparky, the eternal pessimist: "The players were very confident they would win Game 7 but Sparky was not... [Scout Ray Shore] and Sparky stayed up until 5 am talking and Sparky was convinced they would lose. He was scared to death after the way they lost Game 6. But the players were unflappable. You don’t hoot and holler that, especially with the way they lost, but they were sure they would win the seventh game."
• Erardi - Comparing LaRussa, Sparky
  Sparky was the only manager to win 3 championships split between the two leagues.  After St. Louis' win, there are now two.  John Erardi sets the record straight on who's the true innovator of modern bullpen usage, but he also doesn't deny TLR's his accolades.  More importantly, he wants to know if the Reds can identify the next great manager:  "Who is the young Turk out there who is destined to be the next Anderson/La Russa? I hope the Reds have already identified such a firebrand, not in anticipation of things going bad, but because that is what good organizations do: They are ahead of their competition when it comes to identifying the best talent, even where there might not be an immediate need."  I'm sure St. Louis has given this some thought as well - TLR's been on a series of one-year contracts recently, and the combination of his health issues and roster flux means that his resignation should not come as a complete surprise.  I'm thinking Jose Oquendo gets promoted and names the Sklar Brothers as his first and third base coaches.
• The greatest Catcher ever
  In the afterglow of the World Series, TLR made a throwaway comment about Yadier Molina being the best catcher in baseball history.  That's fired up the Enquirer's Reds Blog - "And the Earth officially became flat again" - but I fail to see the big deal in some meaningless post-championship puffery.
  
• If the Cardinals' championship has left a bitter taste in your mouth,
  there's always nicotined-flavor nostalgia.

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Last week, Joe Posnanski blogged about the use of the Designated Hitter in World Series.  One of the takeaways is that since the DH was first alternated by home park in 1986, NL teams have scored shockingly fewer runs in AL parks (4.15 at home versus 3.4 on the road).   You would think that designating your fourth outfielder or backup firstbaseman to bat instead of your pitcher would boost the NL's offense in World Series play, but that generally hasn't been the case.  The Reds have had mixed success at the DH but they've also won all eight WS games in the DH era, so it hasn't exactly been to their detriment:

1976 was the first World Series that used the DH.  From then through 1985 the DH alternated by year, so that it was used in both parks only in even-numbered years.  Thus the BRM had to use a DH at home and on the road when they defended their crown.  Of course, that team was so deep that finding a capable hitter beyond the Great 8 wasn't a problem.  The 24 year-old Driessen was the obvious choice as a defensively limited player with a career 113 OPS+ up to that time. Though he may have been a turd in Sparky's eye, Driessen was one of several Reds to smoke the ball in the WS, leading the team to a sweep and an aggregate run differential of 22 to 8.  I wonder if Driessen's WS performance gave the team a slight push towards trading 35 year-old Tony Perez, who'd been rumored as trade bait for years.  The Reds dealt Perez that December to Montreal with Will McEnaney for Woodie Fryman and Dale Murray, who combined to give the Reds about 200 well below-average innings in a little more than a year.  

There was no single obvious choice for the Reds' DH in 1990, which featured a more traditional "National League" roster built on pitching, defense and speed.  Lou Piniella tabbed Hal Morris, normally his starting 1B, as the DH.  In the process of gaining a defensive edge at 1B by using Todd Benzinger, Piniella passed over Glenn Braggs as a potential DH.  The decision to play Benzinger over Braggs seems curious now.  Both were 27, but Braggs had about a 30-point OPS advantage in his career and had played exceptionally well (123 OPS+) after arriving in Cincinnati that June.  He was presumably familiar with the A's staff after having spent his entire career in Milwaukee up to the trade.  Meanwhile, Benzinger had endured a particularly bad offensive year in 1990, hitting .253/.291/.340.  He was a switch-hitter but without a pronounced platoon advantage.  And he certainly lacked Braggs' raw power and intimidating physique.

Regardless of the rationale, Piniella's decision worked out beautifully.  Benzinger went 2 for 5 in game 3, though it didn't really matter since the Reds took the game easily after scoring seven runs in the third.  But having Braggs on the bench in Game 4 would prove to be a lifesaver.  As Slyde has pointed out, the Reds ran into serious trouble early in Game 4 when injuries forced out both Eric Davis and Billy Hatcher.  Piniella had little choice but to use his only remaining outfielders, Herm Winningham and Braggs, in center and left.  The Reds were mostly able to hold serve during the game and found themselves down 1-0 entering the eighth.  They then loaded the bases with no outs and Braggs and Morris due up.  Both sacrificed in a run to tally the deciding runs of the game and series. 

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• For Arroyo, there will be much less Yacht Rock this winter
  If you haven't heard yet, Bronson Arroyo is not pleased with his 2011 campaign, and plans to do something about it this offseason.  "It's going to be a whole mindset of taking care of myself and that being No. 1, and pushing everything else off.  I've seen too many people have decent careers fade away very quickly. You're like, 'Whatever happened to that guy? He had a monster year for three or four years.' All of a sudden he's nowhere to be found. I'm not letting that happen to me."
• Keith Law backs up Fay's prediction that Boxberger lands in the Reds bullpen in 2012
  I'm looking more and more forward to seeing this kid.  Law on Boxy's stuff: "[Boxberger] was at 90-94 with a hard curveball at 81-84. Right-handed hitters will have a hard time picking up the ball because he comes slightly across his body. I'd like to see even a show-me change-up just so left-handers, who hit him better than righties did this year but still didn't hit him well, don't take too much advantage of his delivery."  As of Saturday, Boxberger's been dominating the Arizona League, allowing one run in 5.7 innings while K'ing 11. 
• ESPN gossips about potential OF acquisitions 
  Just some idle speculation about a few candidates, namely Michael Cuddyer, Kosuke Fukudome, and Grady Sizemore.  Pass.  Mildly intriguing is a potential move for Andre Ethier, who has one more arbitration year remaining.  Ethier has lost a lot of power the last two years and hasn't stayed completely healthy.  Additionally, his defense in RF, by the numbers, has been well below-average.  But I do have a suspicion that Ethier will blow up, in the good way, during his contract year.
• BPro - When 100 Tiles Meets 27 Outs
  Up for Baseball Scrabble(s)?  BPro guest writer Diane Firstman has shaken the dust off the familiar board game by allowing the use of baseball names in addition to, you know, actual words, like "dusty" and "baker."  She scores a triple word score on her first entry - VOTTO - collecting a cool 24 points.
• Bill Bray gets to collect a new stamp on his passport next month
  MLB selected him for the all-star squad traveling to Taiwan (or "Chinese Tapei" in case Chairman Hu is asking Commissioner Selig) for a series of upcoming exhibitions. The team is scheduled to play in three different cities -- New Taipei City (Xinzhuang Stadium) on Nov. 1, Taichung (Intercontinental Stadium) on Nov. 3-4 and Kaohsiung (Chengcing Lake Stadium) on Nov. 5-6. So if you're in the neighborhood, check it out.  Meanwhile, Redleg Nation spots a growing Reds influence in "Chinese China."

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• Hope you've all caught postseason fever.  While it's unfortunate that the Reds are not participating in the NL Central Slapfight, the playoffs have paid a special tribute to the Reds' 2011 season by allowing the low-scoring team in each LDS advance to the final four.  St. Pythagoras is breaking right triangles over his knee in disgust.  The playoffs as a crapshoot - particularly in the Wild Card era - is at odds with the game's history and marathon regular season, Joe Posnanski writes: "Baseball is in a weird place because it is different from every other sport. Only baseball has teams play 162 regular season games.... By playing a season that long, baseball seems to be saying that the way to find the best team is through the long season, the day-to-day, the ability to overcome injuries, adversity, slumps, heat waves and all that. And for many, many years that was precisely the case....  But ever since the addition of the wild card, the postseason has become the dominant story."
• Buster Olney tweeted over the weekend that the Reds will listen to offers for Votto
  Rival executives are "getting signals that the Reds won't shop Joey Votto -- but that they are fully prepared to listen to offers," according to a grown man called Buster. Could the Marlins be one of the suitors?  Sounds crazy, but that doesn't stop the Palm Beach Post from speculating. The Marlins are seeking a new team representative as it prepares to show off a new stadium and an amazing technicolor logo. So the long-rumored Hanley deal could finally be in the works - although after this season (95 OPS+), I'm not so sure that's a good idea. HT to MLBTR for the links.
  
• Boxberger on the Reds' radar for a big league bullpen spot
  Brad Boxberger has has little experience above AA, but with a solid 2011 and great stuff, Fay believes that Boxberger is a decent bet to make the Reds out of spring training. Jocketty isn't ruling it out:  "He could probably use some more time at Triple-A. But he'll be invited to camp, and he might surprise us."
• The birth of a rumor - Yonder to the Phillies
  Ryan Howard ruptured his Achilles on the final play of the Phillies' disappointing season, which jeopardizes his and the Phillies' 2012 season.  I haven't yet seen any speculation on what the Phillies might do, so I'm gonna get the ball rolling:  the Phillies are going to make a strong push for Yonder Alonso, possibly involving a third team.  Philadelphia certainly has the talent to compete next year but is running out of time with its aging roster. As they're now a pitching-heavy team, they can't afford the loss of Howard's bat for any significant duration.  But what should the Reds get in return?  The Phillies' depth is its rotation.  Halladay and Lee are out of the question, and I'm not particularly interested in Oswalt or Blanton.  Vance Worley had a terrific rookie year but I'm not convinced that it's for real, given his fairly pedestrian minor league numbers.  That leaves Cole Hamels, an ace on most teams.  He has just one arbitration year remaining, so he'd likely be a type A rental.  He also just had a procedure to remove "loose bodies" in his elbow and will have hernia surgery this week.  But if Dr. K gives the green light, I'd do it.
  

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• BP will be the first Reds batter of 2012
  After setting career highs in AVG and OBP, keeping Brandon Phillips at the top of the batting order is an easy decision. Or is it? Jocketty: "Yeah, I think he is (the leadoff man) - until we find someone better. He's demonstrated that he can handle it well."  For his part, Phillips is happy to lead off: "I'm going into the offseason to get ready to be the leadoff man. I was happy with the year I had, especially after I started hitting leadoff. I did it to help out the team. That's what I want to do."
• BtB named its Post-2011 NL Central All Star Team
  There's a fairly even representation of every team in the Central aside from Houston, though the lack of any Cincinnati pitcher is telling.  The selected 2B, Brandon Phillips, finished the year with an even 6.0 fWAR.  This may shed some light on El Beeperino's decision to sit out game 162. You wouldn't want an error or oh-fer to knock that figure down. Players work hard to achieve statistical milestones over the course of a long regular season, and I don't have any particular problem with them sitting out of a meaningless game for the sake of said milestones.  Actually, I agree with Hal that Phillips sat out because of a legitimate injury.  Also, check out Hal's story about Griffey Sr. and the lost batting title of bicentennial season, if you're into that sort of thing.
• Breaking news on Brandon Phillips:  BP appears at Greenwich Village "Fan Cave"
  During the segment, BP said about the season: "It's been totally different. I didn't think the season was really going to go the way it did this year, but all you can do is adapt and learn from this year and just take it into next year." Will he re-sign with the Reds? "I hope so. I hope so. If not, I just got to go where I need to go ...."
• If you think you saw a lot of bad baseball this year, you're right
  As calculated by Flip Flop Fly Ball, the Reds played more baseball by total time than any team aside from NYY and BOS. This surprised me, but maybe it shouldn't have. The high-scoring Reds had the second most PAs in the NL and were towards the top in total runs allowed and innings pitched. I suspect that the Reds also had more reliever appearances and outings than most teams.  HT to Slyde.
• The fallout from the end of the regular season has come
  The first victim was Terry Francona, who resigned/was fired from Boston.  It was rumored this weekend that Theo Epstein could be next on the chopping block.  Here, Rob Neyer speculates that Epstein may "simply [be] ready for a change. I've had two great jobs in my life -- before this one, I mean -- but at some point it's just time to try something different. And what else, really, is there left for Theo Epstein in Boston?"  The oddsmakers put an Epstein move at 50/50 "for the right situation."  Eeps.  Epstein controlling the ship of the wealthiest franchise in our division scares me.
  The fallout is less pronounced in Atlanta, which has only canned hitting coach Larry Parrish so far.
  Angels GM Tony Reagins also resigned, so there could be a game of musical GM chairs this winter.

• Votto looks to defend his Hank Aaron Award
  While the Reds' record puts Joey Votto out of contention to win a consecutive MVP, he still has an outside shot at the Hank Aaron Award. The Hank is awarded based on a formula considering only offensive statistics, as well as the votes of fans and select HOFers [the formula was apparently canned years ago]. In a perfect world, the best position player would win the Hank, the best pitcher the Cy, and the voters could do whatever they want with the MVP. You can vote here.

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It's the last Monday of the regular season.  The Reds head to New York to play the Metropolitans, who will not only finish the Reds' 2011 season but also their employment of former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky.  It's the merciful end to a forgettable year, but nevertheless, it's been emotional.  The links:

• Dontrelle can finally cross off the "W" from his 2011 to-do list
  The Reds avoided the sweep yesterday in Pittsburgh as Dontrelle Willis threw a Quality Start and added a go-ahead two-run double. He's had his moments during the last two months of the season, and while he's not a favorite to make the 2012 rotation I think he'll get the opportunity to compete for it. He certainly didn't deserve the punishment meted out by BP after the game.
  
• END's unlikely defensive tutor
  Juan Francisco had three doubles on the weekend, but it's his improved defense which has surprised me the most.  Some of the improvement may be attributable to a pep talk from the Cubs' Aramis Ramirez.  Ramirez was one of the few bright spots during Dusty's Chicago years and has maintained a relationship with his former manager, which looks to have paid dividends for END.  Baker: "He’s one of the guys that took it upon himself to talk with Francisco the same way we talked to him about how bright your future could be, what he was in that stage, really working out this winter, getting into tip-top shape and give yourself the maximum chance to prosper in your career, no matter what role, that is until the time comes you can possibly be playing every day."
• Jocketty, Phillips' agents to start talks this week
  Walt is already on record as saying that the team will exercise its $12M option for Brandon Phillips. Whether BP remains a Red beyond 2012 will likely depend on whether the parties reach a longer term agreement this winter. Jocko: "We've had some discussions. It's more of just continuing discussions."  BP has gone on the record that he will not be cutting the Reds a break, but he really does seem to enjoy playing in Cincinnati and I suspect that he was posturing more than anything. 
  
• Dusty to return next season
  After the team announced Walt Jocketty’s extension, there was some speculation - mostly from me - that Baker could be on his way out. That does not appear to be the case. Fay notes here that Baker and the entire coaching staff will return in 2012.
• Daugherty - 'Moneyball' offers guidance to Reds
  Doc re-read Moneyball and thinks about its meaning for the Reds. Most of the article is reasonable - particularly on giving Alonso a shot in LF - but picking on Stubbs for his strikeouts is very un-Moneyball: I have no idea what Stubbs could do if he cut his K total by half. (Remember when 100 strikeouts was considered excessive?) That’s a Bill James problem. But I’m guessing he’d hit close to .300 and score 125 runs.  Uh, sure.  Andromache considered the Stubbs quandry in much more detail, and I completely agree that he should be back as the starting CF next year.

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"That was probably one of the longest home runs I've seen in a very long time," said Dusty Baker.  Juan Francisco violently jerked a low Rodrigio Lopez fastball in the second inning on Monday, depositing the ball some 502 feet away.  The ball easily cleared the RF wall, then the bleachers, and then the moon deck.  There's already controversy about the precise length of Juan's blast - 482 feet according to Hit Tracker.  But for now I'm comfortable saying Francisco's shot is just the second 500-footer in GABP history.  

Uncertainty and controversy over home run length is certainly nothing new.  Part of the game's draw is its equal connection to fact-based history and myth.  We're happy to see our hitters channel Ted Williams and pitchers emmulate Bob Gibson, but who we really want to see are Roy Hobbs and Sidd Finch.  The Reds have seen and hit their own share of towering and possibly exaggerated long balls, though none to my knowledge have short-circuited the stadium's lighting system.  Since home run distance is not one of those numbers that you can investigate in a central repository like baseball-reference.com, the below list of pre-GABP mythic round-trippers is almost certainly incomplete.  Let me know what jaw-droppers I've omitted.   Also, check out the video of Jimmy Wynn's shot - that thing sailed.   

Date	Hitter	Distance	Opponent	Notes
5/5/00	Mark McGwire	473	Reds	Longest Riverfront HR, per Wiki*
5/13/93	Kevin Mitchell	-	Padres	Hit 2 HRs in the red and yellow seats
8/11/70	Tony Perez	-	Mets	1st Riverfront red seat HR
6/11/67	Jimmy Wynn	-	Reds	Over the Crosley LF scoreboard, on I-75
4/14/61	Wally Post	569 (!)	@ St. L	Off the Budweiser sign atop the St. L scoreboard
Unk.	Ernie Lombardi	30 miles	Unk.	Ball landed in and was carried by a moving truck

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• Extending Cordero an option
  As has been discussed plenty around here, the Reds hold a $12M option for Francisco Cordero next year with a $1M buyout.  The team is almost certain to reject it, seeing that Cordero would not fetch that kind of price in a crowded closer's market this winter.  But according to Walt Jocketty, the two sides have discussed a contract extension "quite a bit.  We haven't made a final decision. Hopefully, we'll address before the end of the season."  No word on the length of an extension, or the numbers.  Stay tuned.
• Baker balks at bloggers' bellyachings
  There are few managers as likable as Dusty Baker when the going is good, but darker times bring out his ornery side.  When asked by Fay about whether Mesoraco would catch Volquez on Sunday, Baker wanted to know who's driving the questions:  "I get so tired of everyone wanting to know my lineup before I even print it.  This coming from you, John, or is this coming from bloggers?"  Does it matter?  
• The Reds start their final homestand of 2011 tonight
  It's been a disappointment on the field, but even with a sluggish economy the Reds have drawn respectably.  The team has averaged about 27,500 per game, their best since 2004.  That's well behind Chicago, St. Louis and Milwaukee, but also ahead of Houston and the resurgent Pirates.  Their per game increase of 1,747 is among the best in baseball, behind only the two 2010 pennant winners, Milwaukee, and three other clubs that had more room for improvement (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Toronto).
• Still looking for the first win
  Dontrelle Willis takes the hill tonight against the Cubs.  He's made 11 mostly cromulent starts, walking too many but also keeping the ball in the park and generating a decent number of groundouts and strikeouts.  He'll match up against Rodrigio Lopez, who the Reds saw just last week in L'affaire LaHair.
• Dragons Fall 4-3 in Playoff Eliminator
  The season is unfortunately over for the Dayton Dragons after dropping Games 2 and 3 of the league's quarterfinals to Lansing over the weekend.  They lost the deciding game 4-3 on Saturday.  Billy Hamilton went 3 for 4, and Tucker Barnhart and Theo Bowe chipped in with two hits.  Kyle Lotzkar got the loss, allowing four runs (three earned) in five innings.  He struck out six but walked five and allowed a home run.

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When Greg Maddux said "chicks dig the long ball," I don't think this is what he had in mind.  As mentioned in Saturday's game recap, Bronson Arroyo gave up home run no. 40 in a classic Bad-royo outing, allowing 3 taters in one-plus innings of "work" at Coors Field.  He became just the 19th pitcher to allow 40 long balls and the first since Eric Milton in 2005.  Sort of like losing 20 games, allowing 40 home runs is a perverse badge of honor in that a truly terrible pitcher would never be given the opportunity to face so many batters.   The 40 HR club is a distinguished fraternity - four HOFers plus seven other former All-Stars make up the list, and the performances in general are not disastrous.   

Arroyo's 2011 is not typical for the 40 HR year, unfortunately.  Whereas half of the 22 prior 40 HR seasons had an ERA+ above average, Arroyo's 74 is the second-worst, ahead of only Milton's monstrosity.  Arroyo also sets himself apart from the pack in throwing just 175.7 innings to date, the lowest by at least ten innings.

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• Ol' Hoss takes the mound tonight in Colorado
  It's been a somewhat disappointing season for Homer Bailey, but he can strengthen his claim to a 2012 rotation spot with a strong finish.  That starts tonight at Coors Field.  Hopefully the homer-prone Homer keeps it in the park.  Tonight's game is also notable for giving us a glimpse at two potential stars in the making behind the plate - Devin Mesoraco and Wilin Rosario.  Like Meso, Rosario made his debut this past week.
• Ol' Man Luckhaupt writes about ranking the all-time Reds in the Enquirer 
  You've probably seen the Enquirer's Top 100 list, which, believe it or not, generated disagreement about the nature of rankings and valuation.   Here, the writer formerly but not formally known as Slyde talks about ranking a guy like Joey Votto, who plays a non-premium position and hopefully has his best years ahead of him:  "Basically, the best way to look at Votto is that he has already had two years of about 6 Q [WAR] as he moves into his prime. Part of the reason he doesn't rate as well as others on the list is because he plays first base. Even if he was a negative-fielding second baseman, he'd be worth about a point more (i.e. one extra win per year) than he gets for playing first base."  Here, John Erardi talks about WAR ["Q"] and where it ranks some notable Reds.
• Lil' Joe is ready to take his chicken flap to a different stage
  From OMG Reds:  Know for his "Chicken Flap" batting stance routine, Hall of Famer Joe Morgan will be leading the throngs of herrens und frauens in the Chicken Dance next Saturday at Oktoberfest-Zinzinnati. Synchronize your Swatches and make sure you're at Fountain Square at 1:30pm Saturday, September 17 for it then that "Little Joe" will be presiding over what has become know as the "World's Largest Chicken Dance." 
• Shut up!  Lutz carries Dayton to Game 1 victory
  Donald Lutz went 3-for-4 yesterday with a homer and three RBIs to lead Dayton to a 7-3 win over the Lansing Lugnuts.  Billy the base stealing kid was 2-for-3 with two RBIs, a walk and a run scored, and Jefry Sierra went 2-for-3 with a double, two RBIs.  SP and new FO favorite Daniel Corcino went six mathematically clean innings, allowing two runs on six hits and two walks while striking out six.  This was the opener of the best-of-3 series.  Game 2 is today in Lansing at Cooley Law Stadium.  Apparently, Cooley High was unavailable.
• RLN takes a look at Reds' patches 
  This year the Reds have honored Sparky with a black patch with his name, but there have been several other Reds patches over the years, including Willard Hershberger, Powell Crosley, Big Klu, and Nuxy. 
• There are grumblings about holdups in the supposed Astros sale
  Here, MLBTR links an article saying that the buyer, Jim Crane, has balked at moving his club to the AL as requested by Selig.  But the highly credible Biz of Baseball's Maury Brown says that's not the case.  There are several minor issues to deal with, but Maury thinks that "Jim Crane will likely be approved as the new owner of the Houston Astros. He (and Drayton McLane) will likely to have to wait a bit longer, possibly until as late as the next quarterly owners in November. But, whether or not Crane decides he's coming along for the "Astros to the AL West" or not, it's not the issue that's holding up his approval with the owners."
• Dames on Games:  Drew Stubbs is teh hawt

After the section break, your Friday tweets courtesy of JCH.

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• The kids are alright
  In a game where normal cogs Joey Votto and Jay Bruce were 0-for-10, youth delivered in the form of Juan Francisco and his four hits.  This weekend, Masters Francisco, Alonso, and Frazier all showed the offensive promise that their minor league track records suggest.  The positionally-challenged trio went a combined 12 for 25 with four doubles and three homeruns, breaking my OPS calculator in the process.  By taking their first series in St. Louis in five years, the Reds practically extinguished the Cardinals' already dim chances of sneaking up on Milwaukee.
• The Reds now head up to Chicago 
  where Devin Mesoraco hopes to get in on some of the fun.  With a pinch-hit double on Saturday, Devin is a perfect 1 for 1 in his young major league career but hasn't yet seen any action behind the plate.  That should change today.  Baker told Meso that he'll catch Dontrelle Willis in this afternoon's game against the Cubs.  Devin caught Dontrelle 10 times in Louisville this year, so hopefully a familiar battery mate helps Willis achieve his long-deserved first win as a Red.
• Coco's contract and the closer conundrum
  Francisco Cordero worked a scoreless 10th yesterday to save his 30th game of 2011 and 320th of his career.  He's now one save behind his mentor Jose Mesa, who is 13th all-time.  All well and good, but what to do with Coco's $12M team option for next season is a tricky matter.  Spending eight figures on 60 innings, albeit high-leverage ones, makes little sense for a small market contender. But if you don't bring Coco back, who closes? Dusty: "Tough question. It would be kind of an experimental-type situation. You don't know. [Aroldis] Chapman has shown sometimes, maybe. Other times, he has a lack of control or a difference in stuff after a day or two. [Nick] Masset has been a bit inconsistent."   One factor working in the Reds' favor is the ample supply of relievers on the free agency market this winter.  With his age and the glut of relievers on the market, I doubt Coco will be able to get a favorable deal for anything beyond two years.  
• If Coco is gone, there are plenty of bullpen options to consider.  Edinson Volquez returned to the Reds this weekend after spending the past two months with Louisville. The word is that he might get a couple of starts down the stretch, but will be pitching out of the 'pen in the short-term.  Does Volquez think he should've accepted the Reds' multi-year contract offer last winter?  "Maybe."  Aroldis Chapman might be moving in the opposite direction, at least if it's up to pitching coach Bryan Price:  "I can't guarantee anything because it will be an organizational decision. However, I do think at some point he's going to have a chance to start. I think it's something we will definitely be looking at."  As a point in favor of starting Chapman, Price points out that starting would give him more time to work with Chapman in between starts.

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• Reds outlast Nationals, finish sweep 
  Yesterday, Joey Votto hit a walk-off to end a 14-inning marathon and a bad week for Washington.  The Reds won their third one-run game of the week against one such loss to flatten some of the tilt on the season's one-run imbalance.  The Reds' staff struck out 19, which ties the club record.  
• The Reds now host the Phillies for four games before heading to St. Louis on Friday.  Homer squares off tonight against Cole Hamels, who's fresh off the DL from a "dead arm."  You can catch the game on ESPN.  The Reds may be catching a break with the Phillies' rotation off schedule due to this weekend's weather.  
• There's some buzz in today's game recap about Yonder Alonso starting at 3B today, but I haven't seen confirmation of that yet.  I've linked this Grant Brisbee piece before on the rarity of switching to the hot corner.  Still, there's precedent for big, bat-first corner guys to start off at third before moving to a less demanding position - Harmon Killebrew, Tony Perez, Jim Thome, Edgar Martinez.  It's August 29; we may as well try now.

• The Yonder profiles
  Hal McCoy and the Palm Beach Post both recently sat down with the budding thirdbaseman (?). The Post asked Alonso about his recent HR in Miami, his adopted hometown:  "I was so just crazy I didn't know what to expect. I just saw the pitch and just swung and before you know it, it's over the wall, and I'm like, 'What just happened?' I'm in the dugout and all the guys are throwing up the 'U' and doing all that crazy stuff."
  Hal digs a little deeper and asks Yonder about growing up in a modest household.  I'm a sucker for bootstrapping stories about the immigrant experience, but this is a really good read.  You should check it out.  "So, we got the plane from my grandfather who was there at the time, said goodbye to everybody, kept it a secret and the next thing you know, I'm in Miami. We were by ourselves - no family, no friends, no cousins, uncles, aunts, grandparents. The office cleaning was money to pay the rent. And because of all that, I never take anything for granted. Nothing."  

• DDN - Reds’ lack of transactions costly
  Bold commentary from the Dayton Daily News, both for its criticism of the front office and for quoting a Dickinson:   If Emily Dickinson was right about fortune befriending the bold, it would go a long way toward explaining the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds’ approach to the offseason and the regular season seemed more relegated toward Nyquil than boldness.  If Denis Leary taught me anything, it's that  the "q" in NyQyil is capitalized.  Anyways, I agree with the sentiment, but the Reds are looking up at a 13-game deficit right now. A pre-season tweak in LF or having Zack Cozart up all year wasn't going to even approach making up that gap. Absolutely everything would have had to have gone right for the Reds to be in the lead right now, and that never happens.

• Rolen rehabbing well after shoulder surgery
  Scott Rolen underwent shoulder surgery to remove bone spurs and fragments on August 3.  The team originally said Scotty Ballgame would be out for four to six weeks, and it sounds like his return will be closer to the shorter end of the range: "It’s been a big difference for me, and it was the right decision. I give Dr. (Tim) Kremcheck a lot of credit, he did a good job. I was in no-man’s land there. I couldn’t be happier. I’m unbelievably healthier than before I went into the surgery."  Rolen has been taking a few grounders and hitting off a tee.
• Meanwhile, Chris Heisey started a rehab assignment in Louisville this weekend.  Heisey went on the disabled list on August 7 with a strained left oblique, and should rejoin the Reds when rosters expand on September 1.
• Ryan Hanigan caught Cueto for the first time in 2011 yesterday.  Ramon Hernandez sat out with a sore forearm resulting from a foul ball striking it this past week.

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