SB Nation User Blog: ken

The Trade continues to provide drama

ken — Mon, 11 May 2009 13:24:30 -0000

The Trade continues to provide drama

On Saturday, Kearns pulled off a rare 9-2 forceout when he caught a liner off one hop and gunned down Felipe Lopez at the plate. Nice stretch by the catcher Jesus Flores.

A rival in Havoc

ken — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 11:12:29 -0000

A rival in Havoc

Enter small ball. The Pirates are going to look to manufacture runs with the likes of Morgan and McLouth, the latter of whom is fresh off back-to-back seasons of 20 or more steals.
....
Putting runners in motion can wreak havoc on a pitcher’s concentration, as well as put pressure on the defense.
....
It’s occasionally easier to reign someone in rather than have to stoke a fire.

The article opens with a description of Nyjer Morgan getting thrown out at third because the pitcher was "skipping around the dirt." HT to bbtf.

The Baseball Team That Made Milwaukee Famous (Brewers Preview)

ken — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 19:38:55 -0000

Schlemiel! Schlimazel! Hasenpfeffer Incorporated! It's your 2009 Red Reporter Team Preview - the Milwaukee Brewers!

2008 recap

90-72, 2nd place in NL Central Division, Wild Card

Scored 750 runs, allowed 689 runs. Pythagorean W-L: 87-75

Before talking about 2009 I'll give the Brewers some major props for getting to the playoffs last year. Surviving both the reign of Bud Selig and a league switch, GM Doug Melvin and the Brewers patiently built a young, talented core (Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, JJ Hardy, Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, and Ben Sheets are all Brewer draftees) and then went for it all in leveraging an elite minor leaguer to land CC Sabathia last July. Sabathia went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA for Milwaukee in 17 games and started on three days rest during the stretch run, ~~literally~~ figuratively carrying the Brewers to the postseason. The Brewers also took a roll of the dice in firing their manager in September, though whether that made any difference is questionable.

Helping them get to the good land was a vastly improved defense. By defensive efficiency (the rate at which a team turns balls in play into outs), the Brewers finished tied for second in the NL last year with a .698 DER (guess who was last?). In 2007, in comparison, they finished 14th with a .677 DER. Much of this can be attributed to the defensive realignment involving moving Ryan Braun to the outfield, which by my rough count gained them 3 wins:

Replacing Braun (-24.8 UZR in '07) with Bill Hall (4.4 UZR in '08) at 3B may have seemed like a no-brainer but it's never easy to tell a star player that he can't hack it at his position. That switch alone was worth 29 runs by UZR.
Braun was moved to LF (-2.6 UZR), where he was only a modest drop from the departed Geoff Jenkins (2.1 in '07).
To replace Hall in CF (4.2 in '07) the Brewers brought in Mike Cameron (12.2), which gained them another 8 runs. The net gain of ~32 runs from these three moves is worth about 3 wins.

This is obviously looking at only one metric and not accounting for the other players at these positions (for instance, CF while Cameron was on suspension), but by any measure the switch of Braun to LF was a substantial gain and kudos should go to Milwaukee for making the switch (Uncle Walt, take note).

The Brewers jumped to 90 wins last year, from 83 in '07 and 75 in '06, to a cap their ascendancy this decade. Some of the gain is due to slightly outperforming their pythag. But improving by seven wins while losing a key starter (Yovanni Gallardo) and closer (Coco) while seeing several down years at the plate (see below) is impressive. To say that the improvement was due to a better defense, a healthy Ben Sheets, and the trade for Sabathia is a fair characterization.

2009 outlook

Now that I'm done congratulating Milwaukee on a job well done in '08, I don't think new manager Ken Macha will be able to lead them back to the postseason. Losing both Sabathia and Ben Sheets (189 IP, 3.09 ERA) to free agency means that over 300 excellent innings need to be replaced, which is about 11 wins over replacement. This would be a lot to ask even if both players returned. Milwaukee expects Yovanni Gallardo to pick up some of the slack. Gallardo had a great rookie year in '07 as a 21 year-old, throwing 110 innings with a 3.67/122 ERA/ERA+ and about a 3:1 K/BB ratio after being called up in June. But he missed most of last year with a torn ACL. The remaining starters (Suppan, Parra, Bush, and McClung or Villanuova; Capuano signed a minor league deal after missing '08 with TJ surgery) should consume a fair number of innings but don't offer a ton of upside, so a good year from Gallardo is necessary if the rotation is to be significantly above average. Like last year, they may need to make a big trade to bolster their rotation. 26 year-old shortstop JJ Hardy has a lot of value after two strong seasons and could be moved if they think his understudy Alcides Escobar is ready.

The Brewers will also need to replace two good relievers. Closer Salmon Torres retired (80 IP, 123 ERA+, 28 saves) and lefty specialist Brian Shouse signed with Tampa Bay (51 IP, 153 ERA+, 486 OPS versus lefties). To offset these losses Milwaukee opened up its wallet and signed Trevor Hoffman, about 20 years after we drafted him as a SS. Even as he's aged he's still been good for 50-60 IP and an ERA under 3 in most years. But last year he had a problem keeping the ball in the park (8 HR in 45 IP), which bumped his ERA up to 3.77 (a very pedestrian 101 ERA+). This could be simply a small sample fluke; he did have 46 Ks against 9 BBs. But if it's not, and he's going from spacious PETCO to the neutral Miller Park as a 41 year-old, there could be real trouble. Aside from Hoffman, Milwaukee could really use a bounceback year from David Riske, who went from a solid middle reliever to dreck after signing a 3 year/13M deal last winter. Also, losing Eric Gagne should be a nice example of addition by subtraction.

There are more reasons for optimism on the offensive side. The Brewers were 7th in runs scored in the NL last year and had a 103 OPS+, and that was with down years from several young regulars:

Prince Fielder: too many 'greenies' may have contributed to a slow start for Fielder that sapped his power (from 50 to 34 HR), though he did recover from his early season slump.
Ryan Braun had a good year (285/335/553) but didn't quite match his gaudy rookie season (324/370/634), perhaps because the league figured out that he swings at a lot of stuff off the plate.
Corey Hart put up a 96 OPS+ after a 126 as a 24 year-old. He really tailed off in the second half, with only a 659 OPS versus 831 in the first half. I don't think he was hurt, and it may have simply been bad luck (BABIP of .260 in the second half; only 9.9 percent of his fly balls went for home runs for the year). Then again, listening to STP well into the aughts will take its toll.
Rickie Weeks was serviceable (234/342/398, 19/5 SB/CS) but disappointed considering his Rickey-like second half of '07 (903 OPS, 16/0 SB/CS). He will probably never field as well as Milwaukee had expected (-5.9 UZR/150), and at some point they should think about moving him to CF.
Bill Hall All-Star Bill Hall did not have a very Bill Hall like year (79 OPS+, 404 AB), especially if we look at the 2005-06 Bill Halls.

All of these guys are still in their 20s and only Hall will be older than 27, so it's a decent bet that three or four of them will rebound. ZiPS agrees. That will have to happen if the Brewers are to approach 90 wins. Fortunately for the Brewers, they don't expect a significant dropoff from their other regulars as Hardy, Mike Cameron, and Jason Kendall generally performed as expected.

Reds Connections / BHAS

You may have noticed that the Brewers picked up Todd Coffey towards the end of last year. It will be nice to watch that giggling mound of flesh sprint from the bullpen on someone else's dime. Other than Coffey there's Mike Cameron, who probably cursed our franchise after being traded for Junior after the '99 season. There's really no other rational explanation for this decade.

Speaking of '99, there isn't much linking the Reds and Brewers historically other than Milwaukee taking two of three from us on October 1-3, 1999, forcing the one-game playoff where Al Leiter owned us. The Brewers were only in their second year in the NL at the time. But the similarities shared by the two cities could create a spirited rivalry if both teams were ever good at the same time. A battle of the Rhine, if you will.

If you need to know who the Bill Hall All-Star is, please turn in your internet license. I didn't see any Tomo Ohka All-Star candidates.

'08-'09 matchups

Last year we went 10-8 against Milwaukee, proving we should have been in the playoffs. This year, the home series are on May 6-7 and July 16-19 and the away series are on April 13-15, May 29-31, August 25-27. Anyone interested in road tripping to Milwaukee should contact the Milwaukee Visitors Bureau or our own Justin 007000.

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Final thoughts: the offense improves, but the pitching tests the patience of the Milwaukee faithful. 3rd place, 84-78. If someone wants to invite battlekow over to set the record straight on anything, feel free.

Futures Games Announced

ken — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 17:29:51 -0000

From reds.com:

The Cincinnati Reds will get a look at the future as they prepare for the 2009 season with one last tuneup on April 4 in Dayton, Ohio, against their top Minor League prospects. The Reds will play a team consisting of players from the Triple-A, Double-A and Class A levels at Fifth Third Field, home of the Class A Dayton Dragons, prior to the start of the regular season.

They'll play a futures game the day before in Zebulon NC, home of the new AA affiliate.

Doug has a write-up and lists his starting lineup. He also notes that Juan Francisco is hitting well down in the DR winter leagues and even drawing a walk now and then.

Time to wrap up Jay Hova?

ken — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 14:31:10 -0000

Jay Bruce’s first season in the majors was somewhat of a letdown given the hype and his torrid start, but there are enough positive signs that most Reds fans, or at least those here, are happy knowing that Bruce will be a critical part of the lineup for the next several years. His didn't hit for a high average but he still hit with power (~200 ISO) and showed good instincts in RF despite a few lapses in judgment. Overall his line of 254/314/453 was good for a 96 OPS+ and a .328 wOBA, and he finished fifth in NL ROY voting. Bruce is 21, under team control for six more years, and isn't eligible for arbitration until the 2012 season. This is an enormous advantage for the club because it will pay him much, much less than he'd receive on the open market and because they don't have to commit to him for more than a year at a time.

With all that said, now may be the time to sign him to a long-term deal. More teams are locking elite arb and even pre-arb players into extensions that give the player financial stability and the team cost savings and certainty. Given his tepid rookie year, the economy, and most significantly the fact that he’s three seasons away from arbitration, this may seem like an odd time to negotiate. But I think for these and other reasons this is the ideal time:

We’d be "buying low" in the sense that his future performance is expected to be much better than this past year. Bill James has him projected at 296/351/540 in 2009, which is a bit bullish but not out of line with general expectations for Jay.
By offering Jay his first big pay day three years ahead of schedule, the Reds should get a significant discount. As one example Dustin Pedroia’s extension (6 years, $40.5 million) is worth something like a $25.8 million discount. And this was signed when he was still a year away from arbitration. As Jay didn’t come up until late May of this past year, he won’t be an arb-1 player until 2012 and likely won’t be eligible for Super 2 arbitration in 2011.
Because other players like Pedroia have signed long-term extensions, there's already a market set that should make negotiations somewhat easier - especially for the team. Pedroia will be paid $3.5, $5.5, and $8 million for his arbitration years in 2010. Longoria is a better comp as he was often compared with Bruce before this year, signed his extension in his rookie year, and plays a position closer to Jay's on the defensive spectrum. Longoria will receive 6 years/$17.5 million plus three club option years which could bring it to $44.5 million for 9 years. FWIW Matt Sosnick, Jay’s agent, seems open to these kinds of deals because he negotiated a three-year extension for Dontrelle Willis last winter while Willis was still a year away from FA (and what a smart thing to do that was).
I’m sure the Reds are somewhat reluctant to spend money given the economic climate, but that potentially gives them more leverage if Jay is interested in sacrificing his earnings upside for stability. Besides, I don't think it will be all doom and gloom for baseball over the next few years. Broadcasting contracts are locked in (at least nationally), and revenues from the new MLB network and the internet (MLBAM) should help cushion losses in ticket sales (BP article, subscription required).

Injury/performance risk is naturally the primary argument against a long-term deal. At least one player I can think of (Eric Hinske) that signed an extension didn’t work out like the team hoped. The injury risk doesn’t concern me because of Jay's position. It would be different if we were talking about a pitcher, catcher, or middle infielder as opposed to a corner OF. Also, Bruce doesn’t have any significant injuries in his past that I’m aware of and he doesn’t play in a style (Freel) that gives me pause.

My proposal – 7 years, $27.5 million, and a two-year team option for $10 million/year with a $3 million buyout. The breakout would be something like: $1 million signing bonus, 0.5 (2009), 0.75, 1.25, 2.0 (2012, arb-1), 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 (2015, FA-1), and then the team option which would bring it to $45 million for 9 years. The arb year amounts are the same as Longoria’s but they will occur a year later, which I think is a fair trade-off. Jay is undoubtedly sacrificing higher paydays in exchange for guaranteed money now, but he’ll only be 30 at the end of the contract and can still go for the big payday then.

Too soon? Other thoughts?

It's business time

ken — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 17:54:42 -0000

Did Manny and Dunn just get cheaper? Selig recently brought in an economic bogeyman to talk to the owners about what the recession means to them. The bogeyman is Paul Volcker, an economic giant both literally (6'7") and figuratively (often credited with stemming the hyper-inflation of the early '80s, now an advisor to Obama). The details of the talk are unclear but attendees said that "his assessment was not upbeat."

Selig, like Peter Ueberroth 20 years ago, is probably trying to "protect" the owners against themselves by pressuring them to keep free agency offers down. Ueberroth managed to make it work but baseball paid a heavy price, ultimately paying the Union $280 million as a result of arbitration decisions finding that the league had violated the CBA. By using Volcker Selig avoids the appearance of issuing a direct order to the owners, but the Players' Union may see it differently depending on how the winter shakes out.

NLDS Thread

ken — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 16:34:18 -0000

It's a couple of days early, but here's a quick rundown of the National League's upcoming series for anyone else that's bored at work.

Brewers vs. Phillies

MIL: 90-72. 750 RS (7th); 689 RA (4th). Pythag: 87-75.

PHL: 92-70. 799 RS (2nd); 680 RA (3rd). Pythag: 93-69.

Wednesday, 3:00. Suppan/Bush/Gollardo* v. Hamels

Thursday, 6:00. CC v. Myers/Moyer.

Saturday, 6:30. Suppan/Bush/Gollardo v. Myers/Moyer

Sunday, TBD.

Tuesday, TBD.

I sense that most around here are pulling for the Brewers. How soon we’ve forgotten the final series of the 1999 season, when Bud Selig’s former team played spoiler and knocked our best team since the BRM out of the wildcard. Philly, on the other hand, happily embraced our Pete Rose sloppy seconds and values GRIT like no other market outside of the Queen City.

I’m predicting Philly in 4. They’re peaking at the right time and enter the postseason without any significant injuries. Their biggest weakness – rotation depth – doesn’t matter in a best-of-five. The Brewers’ rotation, on the other hand, has serious questions after Sabathia. Sheets has said that he’s out for the year, which leaves Gollardo (just coming back from knee surgery), Suppan (poor year) and Bush as the likely starters for the other games. Milwaukee does have a potential matchup advantage because they hit lefties (806 OPS; 738 against righties), but that hasn’t translated into success against either Hamels (whom they’ve only faced twice, and done poorly) or Jamie Moyer (111 IP, 3.63 ERA career vs. MIL).

Dodgers v. Cubs

LA: 90-72. 700 RS (13th); 648 RA (1st) Pythag: 87-75.

CHI: 92-70. 855 RS (1st); 671 RA (2nd) Pythag: 98-63.

Wednesday, 6:30. Lowe v. Dempster

Thursday, 9:30. Billingsley v. Zambrano

Saturday, 10:00. Kuroda v. Harden

Sunday, TBD.

Tuesday, TBD.

This one looks like a mismatch, but the Dodgers finished the year strong in adding Manny Ramirez and riding their young pitchers like Billingsley, Broxton and Kershaw along with veterans like Lowe and Saito. I’ll say Cubs in 5, if only to set the stage for a Bartman-esque flameout in the LCS.

* Post-season rosters and rotations haven’t been announced, so these are my guesses

Yost Canned!

ken — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 19:07:06 -0000

I'm listening to the Cubs-Astros game at work, and they just reported that the Brewers have fired Ned Yost. Nothing posted yet on ESPN or the Brewers' web site.

I've seen a lot of Brewers interweb talk trashing Yost, but it's pretty amazing for this to happen in the middle of September with a dozen or so games to go. 3B Coach Dale "Send 'em in" Sveum will serve as Milwaukee's Pete Mackanin for the stretch run.

Edit: I was about to point out the false rumor about a Yost firing earlier this year, but ESPN has posted a report. So maybe it's not just the Wisconsin bloggerati running wild this time.

More Dunn-Arroyo trash talk

ken — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 19:55:20 -0000

From Hal, the latest shots in the Dunn-Arroyo war of words:

Then Dunn was told that Arroyo said on a recent radio show that the Reds pitchers enjoying the young outfielders chasing down balls, "And, yes, Dunn hit some home runs, but he didn’t catch some balls out there."

Dunn shrugged that one off and said, "That’s because when Arroyo pitched I didn’t have to go after too many. They went over my head."

Oh no he did NOT!! I didn't hear about Arroyo's comment. There must have been friction between the two before the trade, because there's no good reason why Arroyo keeps taking shots at Dunn in the press. It's too bad that he's not pitching this series.

I do miss the big guy's sense of humor:

Dunn is wearing uniform No. 32, the same number Jay Bruce wears for the Reds, but Dunn laughed and said, "That’s not why. I know Jay misses me. Probably carries my picture in his wallet. I’m sure he sleeps with it."

Former Red Billy Werber turns 100

ken — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 16:39:25 -0000

Here's a nice read about Billy Werber, the oldest living former player and our 3B from 1939-1941, who reached his centennial on this earth last week. Werber started on the pennant-winning '39 team and finished 10th in MVP voting the following year, when he helped lead the Reds to the championship. He was also the first batter in the first televised game, May 1, 1939, when the Reds played the Dodgers at Ebbets Field. He scored over 100 runs both seasons but was traded after a down year in '41. After one year with the Giants he retired.

Werber came up with the Yankees and is the last surviving teammate of Babe Ruth. From the article:

"In my first game, I got on base ahead of Babe Ruth," Werber recalled. "He hit a home run and I ran around the bases, full speed, because I wanted to show those Yankees how fast I could run. When (Ruth) came in he patted me on the head and said, 'You don't have to run like that when The Babe hits one.' "

More of Werber's stories about Ruth, Foxx and other stars from that era can be found in this Boston Globe article from earlier this year.

Werber sounds like a mix of Brandon Phillips and Paul O'Neil - an athletic, aggressive baserunner who also had a temper and penchant for kicking stuff around in the dugout. He was inducted to the Reds HOF in 1961. Happy belated, Billy.