SB Nation User Blog: ken

Will the Hall come a knockin' for Larkin?

ken — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 20:00:32 -0000

JinAZ explained why Barry Larkin should be elected into the Hall of Fame, but the "will" or "when" is a separate question. Larkin of course appears on the ballot for the first time this year and has 15 years to gain the requisite 75% of the BBWAA's eligible votes in order to avoid the "he'll have to buy a ticket to get in!" or "hall of very good" quips from sportswriters. An eligible voter has at least 10 years in the BBWAA, which unfortunately for Larkin leaves sabermetrically-inclined voters like Rob Neyer, Keith Law, and Will Carroll on the sidelines for now. Ballots are due on December 31, and the results will be published on January 6.

Judging the voting patterns of the electoriate and predicting elections is more art than science. Bill James and scores of others have demonstrated that the BBWAA does not treat the Hall of Fame like a meritocracy and (inconsistently) considers plenty of other factors, including team success, run scoring environment, popularity with the press, post-playing career, and most recently, "fear." Adding to the unpredictability is the relatively small number of candidates considered over a long period of time. At shortstop, the writers have only elected 10 shortstops into the Hall (the Veterans Committee has elected another 12). Most of the 10 were elected decades ago before most of today's voters became eligible, which makes it harder to judge the current electorate (only Cal Ripken, Robin Yount, and Ozzie Smith have been elected in the last 25 years). Additionally, a few of those 10 played a significant amount of time at other positions (Banks and Yount played only about half of their games at short, while Rabbit Maranville played about 20% of his games at second).

With all that said, I feel relatively confident that Larkin will be enshrined after waiting a few years because most writers and fans recognize that Larkin was a great player for a long stretch of time. The injuries and perhaps playing in a small market will hold Larkin back to some degree, but several measurements and other considerations point to eventual inlusion for Larkin:

- The 12 all-star games (would've been 13 but he was robbed in '92) is a great proxy for how well Larkin was perceived in his day. While there are flaws with the all-star selection process, there's no denying that a player picked to that many all-star teams was widely recognized as a great player for a long period of time. In fact, according to a Reds' PR intern (former intern now), no eligible player picked for at least 12 National League all-star teams has failed to make the HOF.

- Two of Bill James' HOF predictive tools charaterize Larkin as a strong but not an automatic candidate. Bill James' HOF Monitor awards points for in-season and career milestones (such as batting .300) while also counting AS game appearances and MVPs and awarding a positional adjustment. Larkin scores a 118. A 100 is considered a "good possibility " at the Hall while 130 is a "virtual cinch." Under the HOF Standards test (which is similar to the Monitor but takes out AS game appearances and MVP awards), Larkin scores a 47 compared to the average HOFer score of 50.

Larkin did not lead the league in any significant statistical categories and therefore does not have a "black ink" score. He also does not fare well under the "gray ink" standard, which gauges how often a player appeared in the top 10 league leaderboards. But I'm not sure how great a tool gray ink is if it penalizes more recent players for playing in a larger league. Seems to me that it's easier to appear in the top 10 when there are 8 rather than 16 teams in the league.

- Larkin also has a mildly compelling narrative as he played for his hometown team his whole career, winning a ring and an MVP along the way. I say "mildly" because two of the most recent shortstop inductees were given extra credit for intangibles (Ripken with The Streak; Ozzie with the highlights and backflips).

In sum, Larkin is a strong candidate for enshrinement. He is probably not, however, a "first ballot" Hall of Famer to enough voters to get him in this year. The lost time to injuries will stick out on his resume. He had only seven seasons of 140+ games, though he should get credit for playing most of the two strike years. Larkin also misses the mark on some key milestones. He was not quite a .300 hitter (career .295 with a .371 OBP). Nor did he reach 2,500 hits (finished with 2,340). He also falls just shy of 1,000 RBIs and 200 HRs. While he has terrific totals for a shortstop (10th in hits in a SS list that includes Banks and Yount; top 6 in doubles, stolen bases, and HRs), many voters do not properly adjust offensive expectations for position.

Another retired shortstop who also rates well in the all-time shortstop lists is Alan Trammell, and the lack of BBWAA support for him (17.4% of the vote last year) gives us some pause. But I think that there are enough crucial differences in their candidacies. For one, Larkin was a better player (815 vs. 767 in OPS, big SB advantage). More importantly he was perceived as such and played in twice as many AS games (though in fairness Trammell's career almost perfectly coincided with Ripken's). Secondly, Larkin is a much more visible candidate due to his on-camera job with the MLB Network. All those demonstrations on the proper way to tag a runner out at second or discussions about his playing career reinforces Larkin's stardom. Trammell, on the other hand, is known for managing the 2003 Tigers team that went 43-119.

My hope is that Larkin's candidacy will resemble Ryne Sandberg's more than Trammell's. Sandberg also played an up-the-middle position well (9 GGs at 2B) for a long period of time, and was recognized as a great player (10 AS games, 1 MVP). Offensively he's pretty similar to Larkin, with comparable OPS+, SB, and games. Sandberg reached 76% of the vote in 2005, his third year on the ballot. He scored 49% in his first year. I'm hoping that Larkin nets at least 40% and closer to half of the ballot this year. If that's the case, he should gain admittance around his third or fourth year.

I'm keeping a very unofficial tally to see where the electorate is headed on Larkin. Votes are not published but writers are free to reveal their ballots and reasoning. Several non-procrastinators have already turned their ballots in and published their findings. So far Larkin has four "yes" votes, three "no" votes, and one "maybe." Feel free to update my tally if you see a ballot that's not listed. Try to make sure that it is from an eligible voter - if you're unsure, check the Biz of Baseball's badge list for members inducted no later than 2000.

Some of the votes so far:

- Bill Madden of the NY Daily News votes Yes. Good to see Larkin get a vote from a non-Midwest writer. Madden also votes for Alomar, Dawson, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, and Bert Blyleven. Swap Raines for Morris and you'd have my ballot.

- Ed Price of MLB Fanhouse votes No. He argues that in Larkin's best 10-year stretch he was only 34th in OPS+, which is equivalent to Jay Buhner or Ray Lankford. Not only does this ignore baserunning and undervalues Larkin's OBP, but more importantly this completely ignores the positional context. Jay Buhner and Ray Lankford didn't play a gold glove shortstop. Strangely, Price seems to account for this earlier in the article in articulating his standard: "Was he a dominant player at his position in his era?"

So what's your prediction?

Poll

Which year will Larkin gain induction?

RR Book Club - How About That Pete Rose?

ken — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:26:58 -0000

For a team that would win 108 games, the BRM got off to a sluggish start. On May 17th (the end of Chapter 4 of The Machine), the Reds won to end a six game losing streak and climb back to .500 at 19-19. Meanwhile, the smug Dodgers were cruising with a 24-13 record and a 5.5 game lead over the Reds. But for the rest of the season, there wouldn't be any contest. The Reds finished 89-35 (.718) to win the NL West by 20 (!) games over LA. Not until the '86 Mets would an NL team win the division by that many games.

One reason for the slow start was the light-hitting starting third baseman, John Vukovich. The Reds had acquired the infielder in the offseason from Milwaukee (he must have been perceived as a really good fielder, because his career line before '75 was 157/200/212 in 468 PAs). Sparky called him "Balsa." On April 16, Sparky pinch hit for Balsa. In the 2nd inning. PH Dan Driessen fouled out and the Reds went on to lose 7-6. While Vukovich fumed in the dugout, Sparky loudly asked his bench coach how he was supposed to win "without a real third baseman."

The solution for a "real" third baseman, of course, was already on the team, playing left field. Sparky's decision to shift Rose to third and insert the rising star George Foster into the starting lineup made perfect sense. Still, the execution would be tricky. Huge stars like Pete Rose don't get told to move to a new position just like that. Sparky wisely opted for a softer sell:

And now, like fate, [Sparky] saw that opening. He saw Pete Rose before the [May 2nd] game taking a few ground balls at first base. This was his moment. "What are you doing there, Peter Edward?" Sparky said as he walked out on the field. "Aw, just breaking in this new glove for Fawn," he said. Fawn was Pete's daughter. "Yeah," Sparky said. Then he looked longingly over toward third base. "I sure wish you were playing over there instead." "Where's that?" Pete asked. "You mean third base?" "I sure could use you there," Sparky said. "Give me a chance to get Danny Driessen and George Foster in the lineup more." "Are you serious?" Pete asked, and he looked over at third base.

The soft approach was particularly smart given a prior position switch controversy nine years earlier. Then Reds manager Don Heffner told Rose that he would be moving to third, no questions asked. Rose responded poorly on and off the field and was moved back to second a few weeks later. Heffner would be fired that season. Rose said of Heffner: "He was an asshole." Rose had a different opinion of Sparky: "Sparky reminded me a lot of my dad." Now that's a good manager.

A few other things worth mentioning from chapters three and four:

- One thing never seems to change - even the BRM hated playing in LA. In the third series of the season the Reds were swept in a four-game series in LA, and they would go only 2-7 on the year in Dodger Stadium. Even Rose admitted to responding poorly to the booing in LA, suggesting to Sparky if he could sit out a game since he "wasn't helping the team."

- The chutzpah of Johnny Bench was something else. On his first day with the Reds, the 22 year-old told the other catchers on the team that he had come to be the starter, not anyone's backup, and that everyone might as well know it up front. Then there's the famous story of the bare-handed catch. In a game against the Dodgers, Bench thought it was obvoius that veteran starter Gerry Arrigo didn't have his good fastball. Bench kept signaling for a curve but Arrigo would shake him off. At a mound meeting Arrigo told Bench to pipe down and get back behind the plate. To prove his point Bench then caught an Arrigo fastball with his bare hand.

- If you ever go on a bender with Marty and plan on calling in sick the next day, make sure you tell Marty your plan. On May 16 Bench took Marty out for what turned out to be a late night. A groggy Bench asked Sparky for a day off the following day, citing the flu. A beaming Marty walked into Sparky's office shortly thereafter, inadvertently thwarting Bench's plan by telling Sparky about his wild night. Sparky' was of course livid. His ensuing tirade was a supposedly the clubhouse meeting to end all clubhouse meetings. It would be nice to see that kind of emotion from a Reds manager. Anyone here got some good stories about getting caught in a lie by your boss?

Red Reposter - Winter Meetings Day 3 potpourri

ken — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 23:43:40 -0000

Who is Gossip GM? I'll never tell!
via i2.cdn.turner.com

The Winter Meetings in Indy end tomorrow with the Rule V draft. Here's a recap the deals and other news that broke yesterday, much of which was disussed in yesterday's open thread:

- Walt Jocketty had some discussions with the Rangers about "a hitter, shortstop depth and pitching depth." but nothing sounds close. Walt and Jonny Gomes' agent are "still a ways apart." Shortstop is still an area of interest, but it's no surprise that Jocketty thinks Miguel Tejada or Orlando Cabrera are poor fits for the Reds' "pay structure" (this rumor was floated by Jim Bowden). And rest easy, RijoSaboCaseyWKRP - the Reds have not reached out to Jamey Carroll (his agent, Cincinnati-based Jonathan Maurer, confirmed).

- And speaking of Bowden, Washington signed Pudge Rodriguezto a two-year deal. The final piece! Bowden is of course no longer the Nationals' GM, making this one of the first winter meetings he hasn't attended as a GM in some time. Which means no sartorial controversies and no arm-wrestling contests gone awry.

- The Yankees, Tigers and Diamondbacks had an old-fashioned three-way that saw Curtis Granderson go to to the Yankees and Edwin Jackson head to Arizona. There are some promising young players in the deal as well - Arizona trades Max Scherzer to Detroit, and New York sends Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to Detroit and Arizona, respectively. New York is definitely capitalizing on its ability to absorb salary (from a team looking to shed it) to add a very solid up-the-middle player near his peak. Dave Cameron gives an "A+" to NYY.

- Brad Penny signed a one-year, $7.5M deal with St. Louis. He's a big guy without a great health track record, but when you already have two Cy Young candidates and another decent starter, gambling on the upside of a hard-thrower like Penny isn't a bad idea. Meanwhile, St. Louis continues to talk with Scott Boras about Matt Holliday, who is still presumably recovering from that ball striking his groin.

- Peter Gammons is jumping from ESPN to MLB Network. In my first job out of college there was a girl in my training class with the last name Gammons who had Mass. plates on her car. I asked her if she was related to Peter Gammons; she answered she was not. Somehow the relationship failed to blossom from there.

- What would you guess Albert Pujols makes in endorsements? Derek Jeter?

The Red Reporter Book Club: you're all a bunch of turds

ken — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 06:32:19 -0000

The second chapter of The Machine - "A show like they never seen before" - sets the stage for the 1975 season by describing the hiring of Sparky Anderson and the preceding offseason. In spring training Sparky Anderson famously gave his "turds" speech:

"He announced that the Machine was made up of two different kinds of players. First, there were the superstars. To be more specific, Sparky said, there were four superstars - Pete Rose, Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, and Tony Perez. Those four made their own rules.... Those four were royalty.

"The rest of you," Sparky said, "are turds."

It's arguable that the handling of egos and personalities on a baseball team is at least as important, if not more so, than the more strategic or technical aspects like lineup construction or bullpen use. Sparky did not have failings in the latter categories - known as "Captain Hook," he was an early leader in modern bullpen usage, and of course there was no bad way to construct a lineup with those players. But his deft handling of the superstar egos on the BRM might have been his most valuable trait. What say you? Would a manager who insisted on equality have failed to deliver the same success, or was the talent so overwhelming that it didn't matter who managed? And how do you think Dusty compares to Sparky in this respect? As much as I like to bag on Dusty, it seems as if he handled a delicate situation with Votto well this year. And he also stuck with Bruce through some ugly slumps. If these guys put up MVP caliber seasons in the near future, some of their success may very well be attributable to the toothpick chewin' fossil.

Sparky also told the club that "this team is like my television set. Nobody messes with it." Relief pitcher Will McEnaney's 30-year reflection on Spark's speech is priceless: "None of us ever knew what the fuck Sparky was talking about."

There's plenty else discussed in the chapter, including the origin of the team nickname, the story of Sparky's hiring, the pre-1975 playoff failings (it's forgotten by many fans now, but without '75 the BRM would be perceived like the '90s Braves), Gary Nolan's improbable return from surgery, and delightfully gratuitous potshots at Steve Garvey. But two vignettes stuck out in my mind:

- The Pete Rose contract negotiations are interesting because of both Pete and the era. This was immediately prior to free agency, which Rose himself would test after the '78 season. So while the players were beginning to assert themselves more thanks to stronger union leadership, the teams still had all the leverage and may have wanted to make that point to its players. The Reds sought to dock Rose's pay for what they perceived as a down year in 1974. When Pete brought up his high walk total in the negotiations, the team scoffed: "Pete," [Ass't GM Dick] Wagner said quietly, "this is not about your walks. This is about your batting average.... you hit .284, which is of course, well below your usual standard.... we pay you to hit .300...."

While Rose seems like a guy that a team would want to compensate well - a hometown guy, a passionate player with a large following, and he was really, really good at baseball - the team had their concerns. Ultimately they settled on a salary cut of $5,000. I just find it fascinating that a team bickered with a superstar over $5,000. Marge Schott would carry on the petty tradition nicely.

- The other vignette is timely (for us) because it concerns George Foster. Riverfront76 correctly pointed out that Foster really exploded onto stardom in '75. Before then Foster was blocked by great players but he also didn't make a great case for more time, carrying a sub .400 SLG as a corner outfielder. What was the "something" that happened? Nobody can say for sure, but in '74 Wendell Deyo became the first team chaplain in Reds history. Having a team chaplain was not a popular idea with many of the players, Sparky, and Dick Wagner (Wagner resented the chaplain because he'd come from work environments where bosses diddled their secretaries on their desk). But Foster sought out Deyo's counsel and the two eventually became friends. According to Deyo, Foster longed for peace and reason.

So what happened that propelled Foster to stardom? Physical maturation (the age 26 season is often the year a player makes a significant leap), more consistent playing time, something from above, or all of the above?

The Red Reporter Book Club (Season 2, Episode 1): The Machine - The Prologue

ken — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 18:37:50 -0000

Welcome to Red Reporter's second hurrah into some old-timey nerdery in the form of a book club. This time we'll be reading Joe Posnanski's The Machine: A Hot Team, a Legendary Season, and a Heart-stopping World Series: The Story of the 1975 Cincinnati Reds. As most of you know, Posnanski is a former Cincinnati Post reporter, current Sports Illustrated writer, and a Clevelander at heart. I think he does a great job discussing the personalities and stories of the 1975 Reds, and if you have the means I highly recommend acquiring The Machine and giving it a read. I'll try to post something every week or two covering a chapter of the book so that we finish the book before Opening Day.

Like a great leadoff hitter the Prologue sets the table for the tour de force to follow. Appropriately, the Prologue begins by describing Pete Rose. Plenty of guys play the game hard, but it's hard to imagine any player today who acts as ferociously as Rose on field, in the dugout, and in the clubhouse. With the Reds down three runs in the sixth inning of Game 7, Pete paced the dugout, cursing and getting in the faces of any teammate to tell them how much they (and the Sox) sucked. Of course, Tony Perez would then hit a two-run HR and the Reds would come back to beat Boston by a run, securing not just a champsionship but an escape from the choker label that had dogged the pre-'75 team.

So here are a few questions and observations for discussion.

- How important is it to have a fiery leader like Pete Rose in a game 7? I think it's natural to evaluate a championship team and concoct a story about how the team "gelled" or that so-and-so wouldn't let the team lose. Over the course of a 162-game season, I don't think these intangibles matter all that much. But in the World Series, in game 7? I don't think it's inconceivable that personalities player a larger role and that some players react differently to the pressure than others.

- With the Reds down by 3 in the 6th inning, Tony Perez told Sparky "Don't worry. I hit a home run." And then:

Earlier in the game, [Boston pitcher Bill] Lee had thrown his slow curve, a lollipop of a pitch that peaked at about ten feet off the ground and then dropped gently into the strike zone.... Doggie was mesmerized, and he could not unleash his swing. "Throw it again," he muttered now.... Bill Lee began his windup, and then he unleased it one more time, his slow curveball, and Perez saw it, his eyes widened, and he did something funny in his swing. He buckled, like a car trying to jump into second gear.

I watched the at bat after reading the book, and man, did Perez crush it. Well over the Monster. With Bench on first after Rose had ferociously broken up the DP, the Reds were within one and would win the game, and the championship, on Joe Morgan's bloop RBI single in the 9th.

Perez's reputation as a clutch hitter may well have pushed him into the Hall of Fame. Is that reputation deserved, and if so, does that justify his inclusion into the Hall? If you had to pick between Perez and Rose, who would you put in the Hall?

- It's interesting how the perceptions of each team have evolved since the Seventies. The Reds have gone from dynasty to forgotten man. The Red Sox have done more or less the opposite. Before '75 they weren't known as a "cursed" franchise (I believe that wasn't invented until after 1986, but someone correct me if I'm off). They were simply known as a bad team that had appeared in two WS since 1918 and were the last to integrate.

Red Reposter - GM Meetings Day 2: We still don't have Hanley Ramirez

ken — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:51:49 -0000

Obama may not have been able to deliver Chicago the Olympics, but at least his hometown hosted the MLB Winter Meetings in his first year in office. Not much activity thus far, but here are some rumblings:

Per a Buster Olney Tweet (via mlbtraderumors.com), the Reds are shopping Coco hard. Olney's heard from other teams that the Reds would love to move closer Francisco Cordero. Of course, closers are plentiful and Cordero is set to earn $25MM over the next two years. The 25M does not include the 12M team option for 2012. As Coco has a no-trade clause, it's very possible that he would ask that the receiving team pick that up in exchange for waiving the clause. With other relievers available on the free agent market, I think he will be tough to move.
John Heyman also reports that the Reds are big sellers, and list Coco, Brandon Phillips, and Bronson Arroyo as bait (HT to RijoSaboCaseyWKRP - see his FanPost for a good writeup of the Reds' contractual obligations going forward). Heyman also mentions that Griffey will return to Seattle next year for 2M plus incentives.
The Reds did just save a little money - maybe a million or so - when Micah Owings was found to have missed Super 2 status on a tiebreaker. He had the same amount of service time as the Cubs' Mike Fontenot and the Orioles' Adam Jones, but Fontenot was awarded Super 2 because he had more service time in the immediately preceding season (2009). Super 2 helps prevent teams from playing the service clock game by allowing 70% (ed: meant 17%) of players in their third year qualify for arbitration. They otherwise receive whatever the club dictates, which is usually close to the leage minimum.
If you didn't see it, the NL Gold Gloves were announced yesterday. No Reds were named, meaning that Brandon Phillips lost his title (to Orlando Hudson). Chase Utley has a pretty good case for the 2B GG as well. The Silver Sluggers will be named tonight at 7 on the MLB Network.
The Hardball Times has a writeup about the pitchers in the Arizona Fall League, including or own Mike Leake: Mike Leake is a man of many arm angles. It makes pitch classification a little bit complicated, which I suspect hitters will also attest to. There's also some PitchFX data posted that shows Leake's curve has a pretty good drop.

The Machine and the return of the RR Book Club

ken — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 01:44:39 -0000

The Machine and the return of the RR Book Club

Getting tired of fisticuffs breaking out at your Michael Chabon book club meetings? Maybe an online forum to discuss the best book about the best baseball team is your cup of tea!

As you know, Joe Posnanski of SI (and formerly of the Cincinnati Post) detailed the 1975 Reds in glorious fashion in The Machine, which was released to wide acclaim this fall. As we did for The Soul of Baseball, Red Reporter will post a series of ~~FanShots~~ ~~FanPosts~~ somethings this winter on chapters of the book to generate some discussion. I don't plan on posting anything until well after the World Series, but I wanted to throw this out there so that anyone that hasn't yet purchased the book can do so.

Better Know a Playoff Team: Philadelphia Phillies of Philadelphia

ken — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 16:29:49 -0000

Here are three facts about the Phillies, who finished the season at 93-69 to win the NL East by six games. Two of these things are true, but one is a falsehood! Which one say you?

1. With 119 stolen bases in 147 attempts, the Phillies topped the 80% SB success rate for the third year in a row.

2. They led the NL with 224 HRs.

3. They have the worst bullpen ERA of the four NL playoff teams.

The answer is no. 3. The Phillies' bullpen in 2009 was not nearly as strong as last year's, when Brad Lidge had his "perfect" season and setup men Ryan Madson and JC Romero were unhittable down the stretch. With a 3.91 ERA the Philadelphia bullpen is well behind the Dodgers and Cardinals, among others (including us!). Colorado, however, had a considerably worse bullpen ERA. Some dramatic finishes could be in store.

Some other tidbits about the upcoming NLDS:

- The teams are generally an even match. Philly won 93 games, Colorado won 92. They have the same pythag record as well.

- Philadelphia has a significant matchup advantage, however. Their top two starters are lefties, which gave Colorado fits this year. Meanwhile, the Rockies will throw out righties in the first two games, which should play to the advantage of Philly's lefty-heavy lineup. Crashburn Alley breaks down the splits in detail.

- The series will showcase two of the most offensive-friendly stadia in baseball. That along with the aforementioned bullpens and superb offenses (top two OPSs in the NL) should lead to relatively high scoring games, though that won't stop the broadcasters from dutifully reminding us that you have to manufacture runs in the playoffs.

- Additionally, there may be some particularly ~~gutsy~~ gusty weather in game 1. As the article mentions, the sun may also be an issue for RFs Jayson Werth and Brad Hawpe. A poor outfielder to begin with, teh Hawpe may have some real difficulties on his hands.

Red Reposter - By the time the Reds get to Arizona, it should be spring training

ken — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 13:49:34 -0000

Coaching changes afoot?
After questioning Dusty Baker's ridiculous use of Francisco Cordero and Nick Masset for five consecutive days, Ken Rosenthal hints that there could be changes made to the Reds' coaching staff, including our favorite whipping boy: Hitting coach Brook Jacoby, meanwhile, presides over an offense that ranks 14th in runs per game even though Great American Ballpark is one of the best hitters' parks in the majors. Yet Jacoby, too, would be little more than a scapegoat — injuries and poor roster construction helped compromise the offense. I think the question should be which hitters have developed or regressed under Jacoby's tutelage. As an outside observer it's tough to say. Has Joey Votto blossomed because or in spite of the coaching? Has Jacoby affected Jay Bruce's development?
Reds raise presence in Arizona
The Reds' Instructional League starts today in Goodyear, Arizona. Fay reports that the minor leaguers are excited about the new and improved facilities, which is great to hear because so much is riding on our prospects. This marks the beginning of the Reds presence in Arizona after spending the last 63 years in Florida.
'Stros can Cooper
Cooper has been managing the Astros since Aug. 27, 2007, and compiled a 171-170 record. As of Monday, the Astros had lost seven straight to fall to 70-79 and 16 1/2 games out of first place in the National League Central. Cooper may be a poor tactician, but it's not as if this team was going anywhere with a rotation that falls off a cliff after the first two spots. It's a strange roster in that they have a number of legitimately good players (Berkman, Lee, Pence, Rodriguez, Oswalt) and a few decent role players, but very little after that. Their failure to construct a deeper roster is hardly the fault of Cooper.
MLB Players Association considering grievance for Milton Bradley
The Cubs will first have to "officially" suspend Bradley and provide its reasons before the MLBPA can appeal. At this point it's not even clear if the suspension is without pay. Things might be bad for Bradley, but at least his mother is still in his corner: "Milton sounded fine," Charlena Rector told the Chicago Tribune from her home in Long Beach, Calif. "He was raised in a Christian home. He believes that God don't make mistakes. ... And if that door in Chicago closes for him, he thinks another one will open. It always does."
Perhaps the greatest pitching prospect in the world is about to become a free agent.
Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman is awaiting MLB's decision on his application for free agnecy. Chapman is 21, a lefty, and reportedly throws a 102 mph fastball (at this year's WBC). Everyone gather around your TV sets while your favorite team watches the teams from New York, Boston, and Los Angeles throw enormous amounts of money at him.
Obama Leaps Into Olympic Fray
President Obama presided over a White House extravaganza to promote Chicago as the site for the 2016 Olympics, putting heft behind his hometown's bid. The other major contenders are believed to be Tokyo, Rio de Janeiro and Madrid. I'm a big fan of the Olympics and would love to see Chicago receive the games. It would at least be nice to make up for the shoddy Atlanta Olympics.

Red Reposter - thinking about 2010

ken — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 01:49:23 -0000

Fay: Jocketty on CF, SS and more
As posted by Dave from Louisville, Jocketty candidly discussed the 2010 roster with Fay over the weekend. I like what he said. Stubbs and Janish will probably be Opening Day starters, and Walt describes Ramon Hernandez's option as "pretty big" while complimenting the performance of Hanigan and the reserves. There is, of course, talk about quest for a "quality RBI man," but Walt has shown good sense here in the past, turning down the Bailey-for-Dye swap before this season. I must have caught my spring optimism earlier than normal, because I think a lineup of Votto, Phillips, Janish, Rolen, Hanigan, Gomes/Dickerson, Stubbs, and Bruce has a good chance to be average or better in 2010.

Rotation update
Cueto's recovering from a flu-like malady (never understood the distinction between having the flu and "flu-like symptoms") and should start on Tuesday against the Pirates' Zach Duke. Homer and Bronson will follow, Lehr and Maloney will be skipped. Lehr told Dick Pole that he needs rest because he's made about 41 starts this year between winter ball and the regular season. A little surprised to hear that from a guy who's position with the team is tenuous.

Baker frustrated by season of adversity
After a bit on injuries is an unenlightening discussion of team defense: Baker has been pleased with the improvements the club has made, in particularly on defense, although it doesn't always reflect in the numbers. The Reds currently rank 10th in the National League in fielding percentage. "It doesn't tell the whole story," Baker said. "We're about in the middle of the pack. I like that we're near the top in double plays. If you can turn them and not hit into them, you've got a great chance." As JinAZ wrote here, the Reds' defense has been very good this year and a huge improvement over prior seasons. Sometimes I wonder if Dusty and I have been watching the same games.

Bailey: '100 pitch limit is (crap)'
You'll have to visit Trent's article to see what Homer would have plugged in the parentheses. Word choice aside, Homer has a point about the arbitrary nature of modern pitch count management. I think he and most starting pitchers are capable of regularly exceeding 100 pitches. It's just a question of how you build up their strength and stamina without creating an undue risk of injury or pushing a pitcher beyond the point of effectiveness. To his credit and contrary to his prior reputation, Baker has mostly done a good job ensuring that his younger starters stay on a conservative pitch count schedule and seems to stretch them only when they're mowing down inferior lineups, which is the right time to build stamina.

60 Seconds with Cincinnati Reds outfielder Chris Dickerson
If you're not aware of Chris Dickerson's environmental efforts, check this out. Personally, I would've asked him what it felt like to see Taveras' name at the top of the lineup for most of the summer.

The corpse of Ken Griffey Jr. carries Mariners over Yankees
Junya has put up a feeble 215/322/394 line this season for the Mariners and turns 40 this winter. I haven't heard either way, but I have a hard time believing the Mariners would want him back next year at any price. If this is his last month of pro ball, at least he got to take down the Yankees one more time, hitting a HR and driving in 4 runs yesterday to close out the season series between the teams. Griffey supposedly has held a grudge against NYY since his childhood because Steinbrenner kicked him out of the clubhouse when his dad was a Yankee. True or not, Griffey has a .976 career OPS against New York (third best mark against an AL team, not including Seattle) and will of course be remembered for destroying them in the 1995 playoffs.

Giants teen Villalona suspected of murder
Giants top prospect Angel Villalona has been detained in connection to a murder that occurred in the Dominican Republic on Saturday night, according to a report by the Associated Press.Potentially a huge setback for the Giants. Villalona, along with Pablo Sandoval and catcher Buster Posey, looked to form a very solid trio of young hitters. At least Ugueth Urbina waited until his career was finished.

Cubs suspend Milton Bradley for the rest of the season
Bradley, scratched from Saturday's lineup with a sore left knee, was quoted as saying "you understand why they haven't won in 100 years here." Roasted! You may recall other articles from this season where Bradley calls out Cubs fans as racist. Needless to say, this hasn't been a happy marriage. I was going to make a crack about going after a "quality RBI man," but Bradley's career high is only 77. Makes sense given his long history of injuries and suspensions.