SB Nation User Blog: ken

Red Reposter - GM Meetings Day 2: We still don't have Hanley Ramirez

ken — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:51:49 -0000

Obama may not have been able to deliver Chicago the Olympics, but at least his hometown hosted the MLB Winter Meetings in his first year in office. Not much activity thus far, but here are some rumblings:

Per a Buster Olney Tweet (via mlbtraderumors.com), the Reds are shopping Coco hard. Olney's heard from other teams that the Reds would love to move closer Francisco Cordero. Of course, closers are plentiful and Cordero is set to earn $25MM over the next two years. The 25M does not include the 12M team option for 2012. As Coco has a no-trade clause, it's very possible that he would ask that the receiving team pick that up in exchange for waiving the clause. With other relievers available on the free agent market, I think he will be tough to move.
John Heyman also reports that the Reds are big sellers, and list Coco, Brandon Phillips, and Bronson Arroyo as bait (HT to RijoSaboCaseyWKRP - see his FanPost for a good writeup of the Reds' contractual obligations going forward). Heyman also mentions that Griffey will return to Seattle next year for 2M plus incentives.
The Reds did just save a little money - maybe a million or so - when Micah Owings was found to have missed Super 2 status on a tiebreaker. He had the same amount of service time as the Cubs' Mike Fontenot and the Orioles' Adam Jones, but Fontenot was awarded Super 2 because he had more service time in the immediately preceding season (2009). Super 2 helps prevent teams from playing the service clock game by allowing 70% (ed: meant 17%) of players in their third year qualify for arbitration. They otherwise receive whatever the club dictates, which is usually close to the leage minimum.
If you didn't see it, the NL Gold Gloves were announced yesterday. No Reds were named, meaning that Brandon Phillips lost his title (to Orlando Hudson). Chase Utley has a pretty good case for the 2B GG as well. The Silver Sluggers will be named tonight at 7 on the MLB Network.
The Hardball Times has a writeup about the pitchers in the Arizona Fall League, including or own Mike Leake: Mike Leake is a man of many arm angles. It makes pitch classification a little bit complicated, which I suspect hitters will also attest to. There's also some PitchFX data posted that shows Leake's curve has a pretty good drop.

The Machine and the return of the RR Book Club

ken — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 01:44:39 -0000

The Machine and the return of the RR Book Club

Getting tired of fisticuffs breaking out at your Michael Chabon book club meetings? Maybe an online forum to discuss the best book about the best baseball team is your cup of tea!

As you know, Joe Posnanski of SI (and formerly of the Cincinnati Post) detailed the 1975 Reds in glorious fashion in The Machine, which was released to wide acclaim this fall. As we did for The Soul of Baseball, Red Reporter will post a series of ~~FanShots~~ ~~FanPosts~~ somethings this winter on chapters of the book to generate some discussion. I don't plan on posting anything until well after the World Series, but I wanted to throw this out there so that anyone that hasn't yet purchased the book can do so.

Better Know a Playoff Team: Philadelphia Phillies of Philadelphia

ken — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 16:29:49 -0000

Here are three facts about the Phillies, who finished the season at 93-69 to win the NL East by six games. Two of these things are true, but one is a falsehood! Which one say you?

1. With 119 stolen bases in 147 attempts, the Phillies topped the 80% SB success rate for the third year in a row.

2. They led the NL with 224 HRs.

3. They have the worst bullpen ERA of the four NL playoff teams.

The answer is no. 3. The Phillies' bullpen in 2009 was not nearly as strong as last year's, when Brad Lidge had his "perfect" season and setup men Ryan Madson and JC Romero were unhittable down the stretch. With a 3.91 ERA the Philadelphia bullpen is well behind the Dodgers and Cardinals, among others (including us!). Colorado, however, had a considerably worse bullpen ERA. Some dramatic finishes could be in store.

Some other tidbits about the upcoming NLDS:

- The teams are generally an even match. Philly won 93 games, Colorado won 92. They have the same pythag record as well.

- Philadelphia has a significant matchup advantage, however. Their top two starters are lefties, which gave Colorado fits this year. Meanwhile, the Rockies will throw out righties in the first two games, which should play to the advantage of Philly's lefty-heavy lineup. Crashburn Alley breaks down the splits in detail.

- The series will showcase two of the most offensive-friendly stadia in baseball. That along with the aforementioned bullpens and superb offenses (top two OPSs in the NL) should lead to relatively high scoring games, though that won't stop the broadcasters from dutifully reminding us that you have to manufacture runs in the playoffs.

- Additionally, there may be some particularly ~~gutsy~~ gusty weather in game 1. As the article mentions, the sun may also be an issue for RFs Jayson Werth and Brad Hawpe. A poor outfielder to begin with, teh Hawpe may have some real difficulties on his hands.

Red Reposter - By the time the Reds get to Arizona, it should be spring training

ken — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 13:49:34 -0000

Coaching changes afoot?
After questioning Dusty Baker's ridiculous use of Francisco Cordero and Nick Masset for five consecutive days, Ken Rosenthal hints that there could be changes made to the Reds' coaching staff, including our favorite whipping boy: Hitting coach Brook Jacoby, meanwhile, presides over an offense that ranks 14th in runs per game even though Great American Ballpark is one of the best hitters' parks in the majors. Yet Jacoby, too, would be little more than a scapegoat — injuries and poor roster construction helped compromise the offense. I think the question should be which hitters have developed or regressed under Jacoby's tutelage. As an outside observer it's tough to say. Has Joey Votto blossomed because or in spite of the coaching? Has Jacoby affected Jay Bruce's development?
Reds raise presence in Arizona
The Reds' Instructional League starts today in Goodyear, Arizona. Fay reports that the minor leaguers are excited about the new and improved facilities, which is great to hear because so much is riding on our prospects. This marks the beginning of the Reds presence in Arizona after spending the last 63 years in Florida.
'Stros can Cooper
Cooper has been managing the Astros since Aug. 27, 2007, and compiled a 171-170 record. As of Monday, the Astros had lost seven straight to fall to 70-79 and 16 1/2 games out of first place in the National League Central. Cooper may be a poor tactician, but it's not as if this team was going anywhere with a rotation that falls off a cliff after the first two spots. It's a strange roster in that they have a number of legitimately good players (Berkman, Lee, Pence, Rodriguez, Oswalt) and a few decent role players, but very little after that. Their failure to construct a deeper roster is hardly the fault of Cooper.
MLB Players Association considering grievance for Milton Bradley
The Cubs will first have to "officially" suspend Bradley and provide its reasons before the MLBPA can appeal. At this point it's not even clear if the suspension is without pay. Things might be bad for Bradley, but at least his mother is still in his corner: "Milton sounded fine," Charlena Rector told the Chicago Tribune from her home in Long Beach, Calif. "He was raised in a Christian home. He believes that God don't make mistakes. ... And if that door in Chicago closes for him, he thinks another one will open. It always does."
Perhaps the greatest pitching prospect in the world is about to become a free agent.
Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman is awaiting MLB's decision on his application for free agnecy. Chapman is 21, a lefty, and reportedly throws a 102 mph fastball (at this year's WBC). Everyone gather around your TV sets while your favorite team watches the teams from New York, Boston, and Los Angeles throw enormous amounts of money at him.
Obama Leaps Into Olympic Fray
President Obama presided over a White House extravaganza to promote Chicago as the site for the 2016 Olympics, putting heft behind his hometown's bid. The other major contenders are believed to be Tokyo, Rio de Janeiro and Madrid. I'm a big fan of the Olympics and would love to see Chicago receive the games. It would at least be nice to make up for the shoddy Atlanta Olympics.

Red Reposter - thinking about 2010

ken — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 01:49:23 -0000

Fay: Jocketty on CF, SS and more
As posted by Dave from Louisville, Jocketty candidly discussed the 2010 roster with Fay over the weekend. I like what he said. Stubbs and Janish will probably be Opening Day starters, and Walt describes Ramon Hernandez's option as "pretty big" while complimenting the performance of Hanigan and the reserves. There is, of course, talk about quest for a "quality RBI man," but Walt has shown good sense here in the past, turning down the Bailey-for-Dye swap before this season. I must have caught my spring optimism earlier than normal, because I think a lineup of Votto, Phillips, Janish, Rolen, Hanigan, Gomes/Dickerson, Stubbs, and Bruce has a good chance to be average or better in 2010.

Rotation update
Cueto's recovering from a flu-like malady (never understood the distinction between having the flu and "flu-like symptoms") and should start on Tuesday against the Pirates' Zach Duke. Homer and Bronson will follow, Lehr and Maloney will be skipped. Lehr told Dick Pole that he needs rest because he's made about 41 starts this year between winter ball and the regular season. A little surprised to hear that from a guy who's position with the team is tenuous.

Baker frustrated by season of adversity
After a bit on injuries is an unenlightening discussion of team defense: Baker has been pleased with the improvements the club has made, in particularly on defense, although it doesn't always reflect in the numbers. The Reds currently rank 10th in the National League in fielding percentage. "It doesn't tell the whole story," Baker said. "We're about in the middle of the pack. I like that we're near the top in double plays. If you can turn them and not hit into them, you've got a great chance." As JinAZ wrote here, the Reds' defense has been very good this year and a huge improvement over prior seasons. Sometimes I wonder if Dusty and I have been watching the same games.

Bailey: '100 pitch limit is (crap)'
You'll have to visit Trent's article to see what Homer would have plugged in the parentheses. Word choice aside, Homer has a point about the arbitrary nature of modern pitch count management. I think he and most starting pitchers are capable of regularly exceeding 100 pitches. It's just a question of how you build up their strength and stamina without creating an undue risk of injury or pushing a pitcher beyond the point of effectiveness. To his credit and contrary to his prior reputation, Baker has mostly done a good job ensuring that his younger starters stay on a conservative pitch count schedule and seems to stretch them only when they're mowing down inferior lineups, which is the right time to build stamina.

60 Seconds with Cincinnati Reds outfielder Chris Dickerson
If you're not aware of Chris Dickerson's environmental efforts, check this out. Personally, I would've asked him what it felt like to see Taveras' name at the top of the lineup for most of the summer.

The corpse of Ken Griffey Jr. carries Mariners over Yankees
Junya has put up a feeble 215/322/394 line this season for the Mariners and turns 40 this winter. I haven't heard either way, but I have a hard time believing the Mariners would want him back next year at any price. If this is his last month of pro ball, at least he got to take down the Yankees one more time, hitting a HR and driving in 4 runs yesterday to close out the season series between the teams. Griffey supposedly has held a grudge against NYY since his childhood because Steinbrenner kicked him out of the clubhouse when his dad was a Yankee. True or not, Griffey has a .976 career OPS against New York (third best mark against an AL team, not including Seattle) and will of course be remembered for destroying them in the 1995 playoffs.

Giants teen Villalona suspected of murder
Giants top prospect Angel Villalona has been detained in connection to a murder that occurred in the Dominican Republic on Saturday night, according to a report by the Associated Press.Potentially a huge setback for the Giants. Villalona, along with Pablo Sandoval and catcher Buster Posey, looked to form a very solid trio of young hitters. At least Ugueth Urbina waited until his career was finished.

Cubs suspend Milton Bradley for the rest of the season
Bradley, scratched from Saturday's lineup with a sore left knee, was quoted as saying "you understand why they haven't won in 100 years here." Roasted! You may recall other articles from this season where Bradley calls out Cubs fans as racist. Needless to say, this hasn't been a happy marriage. I was going to make a crack about going after a "quality RBI man," but Bradley's career high is only 77. Makes sense given his long history of injuries and suspensions.

Red Reposter - 9/15/09

ken — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 13:36:56 -0000

ROAR! Juan Francisco called up
"I didn't think I was coming up," said Francisco, who was assigned uniform No. 64. "After the game, he went to my locker and said, 'I have to talk to you before you leave.' [He said,] 'Congratulations you're going up.'"
Best of luck to Juan. With 3B blocked, the article states that the team may try him in LF over the winter. The ideal situation might be that Rolen starts out hot next year and we flip him for pitching or a shortstop, then slide Francisco or Frazier into third.
The Machine is here
The Machine is now in stores, and I expect my Amazon shipment shortly. In the link Poz lists his radio schedule. John Erardi has a very thorough review of the book from a Cincinnati perspective.
Basement Dwellers: The Reds and WAR - Best Pitcher Seasons (1900-2008)
Greg from ATL breaks down the top 15 Reds pitching seasons by WAR in the modern era. The cutoff is 6.4 WAR, which is a little higher than I thought it'd be. For comparison, Harang's best season by WAR is 5.4 (2006).
NJ teens sue over 'God Bless America' ejection
Three teenagers who say they were tossed from a New Jersey ballpark over their refusal to stand during the song "God Bless America" are suing the minor league Newark Bears. Damages seem a bit excessive. They should be glad they got out of Newark alive.
Reminder - Hal McCoy Night is tomorrow
The DDN is picking up half of the ticket prices when you buy online at this link. I have no idea how many seats remain, but for a mid-week game I imagine there's quite a few. (HT to Red Hot Mama)
Also, Hal tells the story when Aaron Boone encouraged him to stick with writing after he began losing his sight.

Red Reposter - 9/14/09

ken — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 12:51:30 -0000

Hal bids Wrigley, Cubs goodbye
Hal summarizes his last visit to Wrigley as a writer for the DDN. It's well worth a read. To their credit, the Cubs were aware of Hal's situation and rolled out the red carpet for the Hall o' Famer, presenting him with gifts and a throwing a party. Pinella: "I first met Hal back in 1990 when I became manager of the Reds. I asked him for a rundown of the team and how to approach them and what kind of guys they were. Hal gave me a great rundown, he was right on all counts, and we won the World Series." A gracious thing to say, for sure.

There's plenty to play for, Baker says
After the cliches about finishing strong, Mark Sheldon notes that Taveras and Hernandez could be activated from the DL later this week. Also, Maloney threw on Saturday but still feels soreness on his blister.

In the three-game series against Houston that starts tonight, the Reds will start Arroyo, Wells and Lehr against Wandy Rodriguez, Roy Oswalt and Bud Norris. That second game may be a tough one. Houston is now six games ahead of us, so even with a sweep the chances of catching them are slim.
Baker impressed with Bailey
I didn't catch the game yesterday, but by the boxscore Homer looks to have done okay: 6 Ks versus 2 BBs, no HR, just one XBH. Fay notes that Dusty was impressed: But his stuff was what had Baker gushing. "He was throwing the ball as well as I’ve seen him," Baker said. "He had more velocity. It seems like he’s gaining velocity. I even saw a 99 up there." Baker also had some critiques, but this is good to hear because Homer should absolutely be part of the 2010 rotation.
Bats bow out with 5-3 defeat
The Bats' season is over after losing the deciding fifth game to Durham. Hats off to Rick Sweet and Louisville on a fine season. BubbaFan will have to settle for just one of her teams competing for the International League title.
Rany on the Royals: I'm Done.
This is what happens when a front office does enough stupid but predictible things that the latest mistake, even though it's not a huge deal by itself, drives an otherwise dedicated and intelligent fan over the edge. Reading this made me feel better about Reds management, so it was worthwhile for therapeutic value if nothing else. I knew the Royals have had some bad teams over the years, but I didn't realize this: The Pittsburgh Pirates just got a lot of attention for setting a major league record with their 17th consecutive losing season. Over the last 17 years, the Royals have more losses than the Pirates. Ouch. The Reds, Royals and Pirates all share a similar sob story: glory from the 70s through the late 80s/early 90s based on shrewd acquisitions and drafts, followed by atrocious teams that were suddenly handicapped by their small market size as local revenues became increasingly significant. After combining for 24 playoff appearances and 5 championships between 1970 and 1995, these teams have had three winning seasons among them since. (HT to BBTF)
The WSJ smirks at 'The Machine' as it twirls its mustache
T minus 1 to The Machine! This particular reviewer was disappointed because the book omits a larger discussion of pre-free agency empire building. He also wasn't enamored with some of Joe's cultural references: Posnanski also fails to capture the zeitgeist of 1975 very elegantly. His placement of historical references throughout the book feels random, almost reminiscent of the Billy Joel song "We Didn't Start the Fire": a jumble of names, places and events without deeper context. By gazing at the navel of his 8-year-old self, the author loses track of what could have been a great peg. The lack of free agency in Major League Baseball during this era should have driven this book. These may be fair points; I'm sure we'll have our own nits to pick after reading. But it's also safe to say that for most of us the topic is of incredibly high interest and that we will not be comparing The Machine to the other new releases mentioned in the review, such as Ron Darling's pitching tome. My enthusiasm for The Machine is unabated.
Ichiro sets MLB record on infield grounder
Ichiro got his 200th hit of the season for the ninth straight year on an infield single, breaking a century-old record held by Wee Willie Keller. Which is a convenient excuse to post this Ichiro quote from last month: "Chicks who dig home runs aren’t the ones who appeal to me," he said. "I think there’s sexiness in infield hits because they require technique. I’d rather impress the chicks with my technique than with my brute strength. Then, every now and then, just to show I can do that, too, I might flirt a little by hitting one out." Somebody check Dusty for yellow fever!

Red Reposter - Never Forget 4,192

ken — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 13:25:42 -0000

Bats bop Bulls 5-2 to even series at 1
Chris Valaika, Chris Heisey, Todd Frazier, and Danny Dorn each had two hits to pace the offense, while Ben Jukich, Enerio Del Rosario, and Logan Ondrusek held the Bulls to six hits. Game 3 is tonight in Louisville, with some RRs expected to be in attendance. Sam LeCure (10-8, 4.46 ERA) starts for the Bats against southpaw Jason Cromer (7-3, 2.25).

Trent's Preview of Reds at Cubs, 9.11-9.13
Time to close the book on a forgettable visit to Colorado and finish the road trip in the Friendly Confines. I didn't realize all three contests are day games. Lehr, Cueto and Bailey will face off against Hardin, Wells, and Lilly. Trent reports that Owings flew out to Chicago and will work out with the team before today's game. Not much from the other local writers with the get away day yesterday.

Redleg Nation | Some Numbers for Marty Brennaman
As has been said plenty around here, the run-scoring problem is not performance with RISP. It's the lack of baserunners. Many of the small-ball numbers (sacrifice rate, GIDP rate, number of strikeouts, and even "productive outs") actually favor the Reds.

Dunn's 36th paces Nationals over Phillies
With 22 games remaining, Adam Dunn is (again) on pace for just over 40 HRs. Plus ça change ..... The Nationals nearly blew a six-run ninth inning lead after a Matt Stairs grand slam, but with one out and runners on the corners, Ron Villone coaxed a GIDP out of Ryan Howard. A lesser player would've struck out there, but Howard is an RBI man.

New Protective Helmets to be Mandatory for Arizona Fall League
You may have seen the large, special-looking batting helmet David Wright has been wearing. With Rolen and Owings recently taking beanings to the head, I'm all in favor giving the players some extra protection. Starting next year the helmet will be mandatory in the minors.

Can a Ballclub’s Record Justify Its Beer Prices?
Our boy Justin (from Basement Dwellers, formerly JustinAZ) went and got himself published in the Wall Street Journal. Well, Lah-tee-da! Justin does not mention, however, that in addition to selling suds at reasonable prices Citizens Bank Park also serves Yuengling, which is not available in other parks as far as I know.

Definitely a debut Reposter.

The Reds and aversion to 200-hit seasons

ken — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 01:23:54 -0000

I thought we might need something to break the dramatic tension before the finale of the Pittsburgh series. So without cheating - can you name the last Reds player to have at least 200 hits in a season?

As you probably inferred from the fact that I posted a FanPost asking this question, it's been some time. 31 (soon to be 32) years, with Pete Rose's 204 hits in '77 being the most recent. This is the longest drought in the majors by a long shot according to a recent THT post.

I definitely care less about the baseball card stats than I used to, but I can't completely rid myself of admiration for these kinds of landmarks. A 200-hit season requires superb contact skills, durability, and ideally, speed. Hitting towards the top of the order and eschewing walks also helps.

Pete mostly fits these traits. In '78 he fell two short of 200 (between 1974 and 1982, this was the only non-strike season when he played less than 162 games; he played 159). He topped 200 for his final time in 1979, but that was his first season with Philadelphia. Otherwise, Dave Parker (198) and Sean Casey (197) have come close. I'm a little surprised Larkin never got closer than 185, but it's a hard mark to reach if you don't play a full season.

I would bet that someone on the current team will get 200 in one of the next four seasons. Joey Votto, if he stays healthy for a full year, has a decent chance because he is good at hitting baseballs. Jay Bruce has shown problems with making contact but I think he'll rebound and turn into a very nice all-around hitter. Brandon Phillips has already reached 187 (in 2007), and with a little babip luck (despite his speed, his highest as a Red is only .304) I think he has a shot over the next couple of years. Drew Stubbs has speed and youth on his side.

Poll

So which current Red is most likely to break the 200-hit drought?

Joey Votto

32 votes

Jay Bruce

1 votes

Brandon Phillips

5 votes

Drew Stubbs

1 votes

boobs

14 votes

53 votes | Poll has closed

The Trade continues to provide drama

ken — Mon, 11 May 2009 13:24:30 -0000

The Trade continues to provide drama

On Saturday, Kearns pulled off a rare 9-2 forceout when he caught a liner off one hop and gunned down Felipe Lopez at the plate. Nice stretch by the catcher Jesus Flores.