SB Nation User Blog: kenshin1

Giants' Player Worth Through June

kenshin1 — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 00:54:45 -0000

Here's part 3 of my monthly look at the contributions in win values of the Giants position players and starting pitchers.

As many of you know, the win value stat represents the latest, and by far the best IMO method to evaluate players. Using the best available offensive stat (wOBA), defensive stat (UZR) and pitching stat (FIP), win values literally allows one to assess how many wins a player has been worth compared to an equivalent minor league replacement (think Willie Bloomquest). Additionally, since major league teams pay roughly 5 million/ win on the FA market, win values enables us to think of player value in monetary terms (which is ridiculously cool and intuitive). Since MGL generously allowed access of UZR to fangraphs win values are now updated continuously throughout the season. So how have the Giants done up to June 28th?

Disclaimer: UZR requires a large sample size (probably 1-2 seasons) before it is terribly accurate. 2 months of data still contains a tremendous amount of noise.

April values

May Values

Player	Defensive Runs Above Average (RAA)	Offensive RAA	Win Value Total	Delta Win Value since May	Monetary Value (in millions)	PA
Sandoval	-2.3	+15	+2.1	+1.4	9.4	271
Rowand	+.1	+7.6	+1.8	+1.1	8.1	251
Torres	+2.9	+3.7	+.8	+.4	3.6	53
Winn	+6.7	-5.7	+.8	-.1	3.5	288
Molina		-7.6	+.6	+.2	2.8	266
Lewis	+1.9	-2.0	+.6	+.1	1.9	220
Ishikawa	+4.7	-2.0	+.4	+.3	1.8	150
Uribe	-.9	-1.6	+.3	+.3	1.4	137
Nate Sch.	+2.8	-1.2	+.3	+.8	1.3	111
Frandsen	1.1	-5.2	-.3	NA	-1.3	28
Renteria	-3.6	-11.6	-.3	-.5	-1.4	266
Aurilia	+2.5	-7.8	-.4	+.3	-1.7	104
Velez	-1.5	-4.0	-.4	0	-2.0	39
Burriss	-3.9	-13.0	-.9	-.8	-3.9	220
Pitcher						IP
Lincecum			+4.3	+1.3	19.2	105
Cain			+1.6	+.8	7.1	101
Johnson			+1.0	+.5	4.5	82
Zito			+.7	+.2	2.9	83
Sanchez			+.5	0	2.4	65

Observations:

1.Tim Lincecum- To quote a reputable Giants source, "Tim Lincecum is good. It’s almost like he should get some sort of award. Something like: "Award for Guy Who Throws Good" or something." He has been unquestionably the best Giants' player this season by a margin of 2 wins. 2 wins is the difference between a league average player and a AAA scrub.

2. Panda Sandoval- Sandoval had an great month. I recently went into how unique a hitter he is at a none-mccovey chronicles site . I don't know if he can sustain his approach over the long haul but he performed brilliantly in June.

3. Aaron Rowand- Rowand sweats pure testosterone and eats grittiness for breakfast. I hate this contract and the thought process behind it but he has been pretty good (even his defense!) in 2009.

4. Edgar Renteria- Renteria is just killing us with his bat. -11.6 runs below average is positively Burris-esque. I like this contract and the thought process behind it but he has been pretty bad (even his defense!) in 2009.

5. Kevin Frandsen- I included Frandsen mainly to annoy his supporters. He hit poorly in his 28 PA stint in the majors this season but even Albert Pujols can hit poorly over so small a stretch

Open Gameday thread part 2

kenshin1 — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 00:38:27 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

A reaction shot of Matt Cain after he witnesses Bengie Molina bending over.

Browse more photos »

Blah Blah Blah Long-winded diatribe railing about Sabean's horrid roster construction and his complete lack of understanding of modern statistical techniques.

*Kenshin suddenly convulses*

OMG!!!! The Giants currently sit 7 games over .500 near the end of June!!! YAAY!!!!!

*Kenshin gradually becomes lucid*

Ummmm.... I think I blacked out. What happened??

Open Gameday Thread Part 2

kenshin1 — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 21:26:11 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Zito practices looking intense daily in his apartment.

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Thread on, you crazy diamond.

A Necessary Trade (AKA: How to Pay for a Kia and Drive Home a Lexus)

kenshin1 — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 16:22:31 -0000

Preface: Rosterbation is extremely boring and utterly pointless. We have no idea about player availability and what the potential trading partner is demanding in return. Therefore, I am not going to propose any specifics.

Emmanuel is having an awful year. A really awful year. A Neifi Perez says "hello" kind of year. If he doesn't change his current rate stats he will be worth -2 wins below replacement over the entire season (or -1.2 over the remaining games). Now the good news: Since Burriss sucks more than a Heidi Fleiss escort (yay for dated pop-culture references!), replacing him with an average player results in a huge swing for the Giants.

Here is a list of 2nd baseman who are in +/- .3 wins of essentially a league average player right now (from best to worst).

~~Akinori Iwamura~~

Acquiring any one of these players would essentially add 2 wins to the Giants season total. That's huge! For perspective, if the Giants were to trade the entire farm system to Milwaukee for Ryan Braun (1 of the 3 most valuable outfielders so far this season) and then insert Braun into the lineup in place of Fred Lewis, the Giants would gain.... 2.5 wins. The Giants can do the equivalent of adding a star to the roster just by trading for a decent 2nd baseman. If they are serious about competing in the NL this year, Sabean HAS to do this. There is probably no cheaper (realistic) trade in all of baseball that can have more influence on a single team's season than the potential replace-Burris trade.

Most Epic Thing In the History of the World

kenshin1 — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 19:24:35 -0000

Most Epic Thing In the History of the World

I found this story on deadspin. Essentially a disgruntled baseball father created a website for a single 16000 (!) word diatribe against a college baseball coach.

No one has ever been able to read the entire thing. It's like Ulysses or a JoshfromHollywood Script.

Draft day thread part 4

kenshin1 — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 00:08:22 -0000

John Hart loves this game day thread. He thinks it has tremendous makeup.

Open Gameday Thread Part 2

kenshin1 — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 02:16:35 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

CAN. NOT. LOOK. AWAY

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As Randy sits at the bar and waits to see if destiny turns up, we the fans are left to contemplate deep mysteries. For instance, if a space ship traveling at the speed of light were to pass through the center of the Giants offense, would it go backwards in time?

Randy Johnson Pitch Value

kenshin1 — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 00:42:11 -0000

Part 5/5 of our evaluation of the Giants starting pitching is a look at the big unit which I am sure will make you SWELL with anticipation. Johnson has proved something of a disappointment 1/3 of the way through this season. After all, at the time of his signing, many of us hoped for a repeat of his successful 2008 campaign in which he posted a 3.76 FIP. His FIP this season is a full run worse than last year (4.68). That said, little evidence exists that he has lost the ability to be an above average starter as he has maintained a great K rate (9.35/G) and experienced almost no change in his velocity.

How have Johnson's individual pitches changed since 2002? Read on to find out.

Pitch Type	2002%	2003%	2004%	2005%	2006%	2007%	2008%	2009%
Fastball	54.9	55.3	45.3	56.0	56.4	51.5	51.4	48.7
Splitfinger	1.6	1.3	4.5	2.2	6.7	11.7	13.4	10.6
Slider	41.9	37.9	43.6	37.9	35.5	36.8	35.2	40.6
Changeup	1.6	5.5	6.7	3.9	1.4	0	0	0

Pitch Type	2002 Value	2003 Value	2004 Value	2005 Value	2006 Value	2007 Value	2008 Value	2009 Value
Fastball	.15	-1.19	.65	-.49	-.38	-.81	-.09	-.38
Spitfinger	-.59	1.13	.16	-4.32	-.19	1.60	.23	-2.42
Slider	2.84	.78	2.27	1.92	1.32	3.12	.51	.51
Changeup	-2.24	3.09	2.47	3.80	3.25	NA	NA	NA

Year	Fastball Velocity
2002	94.5
2003	94.3
2004	93.7
2005	92.7
2006	92.2
2007	92.3
2008	90.8
2009	90.7

Observations.

1. Johnson is the only Giants pitcher that, at least from a historical perspective, I would have loved to see data extending back beyond 2002. Johnson clearly was a very different pitcher in his earlier years and this data set fails to capture his prime. Since 2002, Johnson's major change has been a not unexpected drop in velocity. From a terrifying 94.5 MPH in 2002, he has since declined to a much more human 90.7 in 2009.

2. Much like Jonathan Sanchez, Randy Johnson personifies the benefits of being a left-hander who can break 90. Similar to Sanchez, Johnson relies on a fewer number of pitch types than his right-handed brethren requires. He, in fact, only throws 2 1/2 pitches (his third pitch, the split finger, is really just a variation on a fastball).

3. The value of Johnson's fastball really surprised me. For the past 5 seasons, his fastball has actually been a slightly below average pitch. Now some of this can be attributed to his decline in velocity; however, even in 2002 (94.5 MPH) this pitch was shockingly mediocre.

4. Once again the data, at least ostensibly, supports subjective evaluation. As a spectator, I have noticed hitters absolutely crushing hanging "fastballs" left up in the zone by Johnson. I suspect these pitches are splitters that fail to sink.

Well, I hope you enjoyed our tour of linear weight pitch values made possible by fangraphs. It was a blast to write and, for me at least, quite enlightening.

Giants' Player Worth Through May

kenshin1 — Thu, 28 May 2009 22:04:17 -0000

Here's part 2 of my monthly look at the contributions in win values of the Giants position players and starting pitchers.

As many of you know, the win value stat represents the latest, and by far the best IMO method to evaluate players. Using the best available offensive stat (wOBA), defensive stat (UZR) and pitching stat (FIP), win values literally allows one to assess how many wins a player has been worth compared to an equivalent minor league replacement (think Willie Bloomquest). Additionally, since major league teams pay roughly 5 million/ win on the FA market, win values enables us to think of player value in monetary terms (which is ridiculously cool and intuitive). Since MGL generously allowed access of UZR to fangraphs, win values are now updated continuously throughout the season. So how have the Giants done up to May 28th?

Disclaimer: UZR requires a large sample size (probably 1-2 seasons) before it is terribly accurate. 2 months of data still contains a tremendous amount of noise.

Here is the link to the april values

Player	Defensive Runs Above Average (RAA)		Offensive RAA	Win Value total	Win Value Change Since April	Monetary Value (in millions)	PA
Winn	4.5		.6	.9	+.9	4.2
Sandoval		-.3	1.5	.7	+.5	3.3
Rowand	-2.1		2.9	.7	+.7	3.1
Lewis	-.2		1.2	.5	-.3	2
Molina	NA		-5.4	.4	-.1	1.7
Torres	1.8		1.5	.4	0	1.7	13 (!)
Renteria	0		-4.8	.2	0	1.1	166
Ishikawa	2.8		-3.4	.1	+.5	.3	121
Uribe	-.8		-2.1	0	NA	.1	74
Burris	-2.4		-5.4	-.1	+.3	-.6	171
Schierholtz	-.3		-4.6	-.4	NA	-1.6	49
Velez	-1.4		-4.2	-.4	-.1	-2	39
Aurilia	1		-8.4	-.7	-.5	-3.2	68
Pitchers							IP
Lincecum				3.0	+1.9	13.7	65
Cain				.8	+.3	3.6	60
Johnson				.5	+.6	2.3	52
Sanchez				.5	+.5	2.1	42
Zito				.5	+.3	2.0	56

THE MOST PATHETIC TABLE IN THE WORLD (Giants Fielders vs Timmy)

	Lincecum	Position Players (total)
Win Values	3	2.3

Observations:

1. Sometimes I find it reassuring when advanced stats jive with subjective analysis. We all know that the Giants' offense sucks so badly that it bends light and the starting pitching has been pretty good. The above chart confirms this knowledge. Our 5th starter (Zito) has been better than all but 3 of the Giants position players.

2. Randy Winn is turning in a typically classy season. Good defense and adequate offense a good baseball player make.

3. Aaron Rowand digs deep and pulls out some veteran grit!!!* UZR still hates him with the fury of 1000 suns (obviously the formula fails to take dirty uniforms into account). That said, his offensive explosion (thanks Grant) has compensated quite nicely. *NB Rowand dove when he read this sentence.

4. Fred Lewis makes my heart hurt. I have long defended Lewis' boneheaded fielding by pointing to the stats. Alas, the stats have started to reflect Lewis' error prone catastrofucks. He remains the 3rd most valuable Giants player but without good defense, he becomes significantly less valuable to real baseball teams.

5. Burris continues his existence as a replacement level ball player. It's pretty sad when one is the worst fielder AND the 2nd worst hitter and is not the least valuable player on one's own team. Furthermore, it's sad when one is the worst fielder and the 2nd worst hitter on a team and has actually improved his play over the past month.

6. Aurilia needs to go away. It is unacceptable when the worst hitter on the team plays 1st friggin' base.

7. Lincecum is unbelievably good. I would liken his right arm to the love child of a threeway between Jessica Alba, Angelina Jolie, and Miranda Kerr. That's how beautiful his arm is.

8. It's nice that Johnson has stopped sucking.

9. As befitting average starting pitchers, Sanchez and Zito have been average so far this season.

10. THE MOST PATHETIC TABLE IN THE WORLD is pretty self-explanatory. Lincecum has been more valuable than all our position players put together. Did I mention that the offense might have some problems?

Jonathan Sanchez Pitch Value

kenshin1 — Tue, 26 May 2009 18:02:09 -0000

Part 4/5 of our look at the individual pitch values of the Giants starting pitching.

Methinks I am a closeted strikeout fetishist because while I tend to underestimate Matt Cain's value (despite his solid K rate), I tend to inflate Jonathan Sanchez' value. Jonathan Sanchez is, in reality, much closer to a league average pitcher than an above average one. Of course, given the egregious price mediocre FA starting pitching commands, cheap league average starting pitching has significant value. On to the numbers. NB: I chose not to include the season Sanchez spent in the bullpen.

Pitch Type	2008 Value	2009 Value
Fastball	.33	.20
Slider	-.39	1.32
Changeup	-1.51	-3.47

Pitch Type	2008 %	2009 %
Fastball	72.7	71.0
Slider	12.3	13.8
Changeup	15	12

Fastball Velocity	2007 (Relief)	2008 (Starting)	2009 (Starting)
	91.2	90.8	91.1

Observations:

1. Jonathan Sanchez is proof that when you are left-handed and throw above 90 mph, you can survive as a major league starting pitcher with only 3 pitches (even when one is pretty terrible). So remember parents, tie your kid's right arm down when he is learning to throw a baseball.

2. Jonathan Sanchez throws more fastballs than any other Giants starter. In fact he throws many more fastballs than any other Giants starter (Matt Cain throws the 2nd most at 60%). As befitting an average to slightly-above average fastball pitcher, Sanchez' fastball is slightly above average.

3. Sanchez has always struggled with his changeup. This year his changeup has been "OMG, PLEASE DON'T THORW THAT AGAIN !1!" (in gameday thread speak) terrible.

4. I included Sanchez fastball velocity mainly as an interesting fact. Most pitchers experience a bump in velocity when they move to the bullpen and lose velocity when the move from the pen (which makes intuitive sense). Sanchez patently ignores this tendency and throws the same velocity regardless of his role.

I hope you enjoyed this post! If not, you only have one more to suffer through (or glance at and subsequently ignore)