SB Nation User Blog: kenshin1

So the Giants are good now?

kenshin1 — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 22:15:04 -0000

So the Giants are good now?

So I fall of the face of the planet for a couple of months and all of a sudden the Giants are in contention. How the hell did this happen? :-) Hope you all are doing well, kenshin

Open Gameday Thread Part 2

kenshin1 — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 02:08:08 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Juan Uribe does his Pablo Sandoval impression

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I think we should trade Bumgarner for Matt Holliday

Open Gameday Thread Part II

kenshin1 — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 19:09:28 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

A Pirates pitcher poses for a metamucil commercial.

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I have a soft spot for the pirates for 2 reasons. 1. We swiped Bonds from the Pirates, dooming them to 20 years of irrelevance. 2. They gave us a sweat-heart of a deal for Matt Morris, a move which led directly to the firing of one of the most incompetent GM's in baseball.

Giants' Player Worth Through June

kenshin1 — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 00:54:45 -0000

Here's part 3 of my monthly look at the contributions in win values of the Giants position players and starting pitchers.

As many of you know, the win value stat represents the latest, and by far the best IMO method to evaluate players. Using the best available offensive stat (wOBA), defensive stat (UZR) and pitching stat (FIP), win values literally allows one to assess how many wins a player has been worth compared to an equivalent minor league replacement (think Willie Bloomquest). Additionally, since major league teams pay roughly 5 million/ win on the FA market, win values enables us to think of player value in monetary terms (which is ridiculously cool and intuitive). Since MGL generously allowed access of UZR to fangraphs win values are now updated continuously throughout the season. So how have the Giants done up to June 28th?

Disclaimer: UZR requires a large sample size (probably 1-2 seasons) before it is terribly accurate. 2 months of data still contains a tremendous amount of noise.

April values

May Values

Player	Defensive Runs Above Average (RAA)	Offensive RAA	Win Value Total	Delta Win Value since May	Monetary Value (in millions)	PA
Sandoval	-2.3	+15	+2.1	+1.4	9.4	271
Rowand	+.1	+7.6	+1.8	+1.1	8.1	251
Torres	+2.9	+3.7	+.8	+.4	3.6	53
Winn	+6.7	-5.7	+.8	-.1	3.5	288
Molina		-7.6	+.6	+.2	2.8	266
Lewis	+1.9	-2.0	+.6	+.1	1.9	220
Ishikawa	+4.7	-2.0	+.4	+.3	1.8	150
Uribe	-.9	-1.6	+.3	+.3	1.4	137
Nate Sch.	+2.8	-1.2	+.3	+.8	1.3	111
Frandsen	1.1	-5.2	-.3	NA	-1.3	28
Renteria	-3.6	-11.6	-.3	-.5	-1.4	266
Aurilia	+2.5	-7.8	-.4	+.3	-1.7	104
Velez	-1.5	-4.0	-.4	0	-2.0	39
Burriss	-3.9	-13.0	-.9	-.8	-3.9	220
Pitcher						IP
Lincecum			+4.3	+1.3	19.2	105
Cain			+1.6	+.8	7.1	101
Johnson			+1.0	+.5	4.5	82
Zito			+.7	+.2	2.9	83
Sanchez			+.5	0	2.4	65

Observations:

1.Tim Lincecum- To quote a reputable Giants source, "Tim Lincecum is good. It’s almost like he should get some sort of award. Something like: "Award for Guy Who Throws Good" or something." He has been unquestionably the best Giants' player this season by a margin of 2 wins. 2 wins is the difference between a league average player and a AAA scrub.

2. Panda Sandoval- Sandoval had an great month. I recently went into how unique a hitter he is at a none-mccovey chronicles site . I don't know if he can sustain his approach over the long haul but he performed brilliantly in June.

3. Aaron Rowand- Rowand sweats pure testosterone and eats grittiness for breakfast. I hate this contract and the thought process behind it but he has been pretty good (even his defense!) in 2009.

4. Edgar Renteria- Renteria is just killing us with his bat. -11.6 runs below average is positively Burris-esque. I like this contract and the thought process behind it but he has been pretty bad (even his defense!) in 2009.

5. Kevin Frandsen- I included Frandsen mainly to annoy his supporters. He hit poorly in his 28 PA stint in the majors this season but even Albert Pujols can hit poorly over so small a stretch

Open Gameday thread part 2

kenshin1 — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 00:38:27 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

A reaction shot of Matt Cain after he witnesses Bengie Molina bending over.

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Blah Blah Blah Long-winded diatribe railing about Sabean's horrid roster construction and his complete lack of understanding of modern statistical techniques.

*Kenshin suddenly convulses*

OMG!!!! The Giants currently sit 7 games over .500 near the end of June!!! YAAY!!!!!

*Kenshin gradually becomes lucid*

Ummmm.... I think I blacked out. What happened??

Open Gameday Thread Part 2

kenshin1 — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 21:26:11 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Zito practices looking intense daily in his apartment.

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Thread on, you crazy diamond.

A Necessary Trade (AKA: How to Pay for a Kia and Drive Home a Lexus)

kenshin1 — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 16:22:31 -0000

Preface: Rosterbation is extremely boring and utterly pointless. We have no idea about player availability and what the potential trading partner is demanding in return. Therefore, I am not going to propose any specifics.

Emmanuel is having an awful year. A really awful year. A Neifi Perez says "hello" kind of year. If he doesn't change his current rate stats he will be worth -2 wins below replacement over the entire season (or -1.2 over the remaining games). Now the good news: Since Burriss sucks more than a Heidi Fleiss escort (yay for dated pop-culture references!), replacing him with an average player results in a huge swing for the Giants.

Here is a list of 2nd baseman who are in +/- .3 wins of essentially a league average player right now (from best to worst).

~~Akinori Iwamura~~

Acquiring any one of these players would essentially add 2 wins to the Giants season total. That's huge! For perspective, if the Giants were to trade the entire farm system to Milwaukee for Ryan Braun (1 of the 3 most valuable outfielders so far this season) and then insert Braun into the lineup in place of Fred Lewis, the Giants would gain.... 2.5 wins. The Giants can do the equivalent of adding a star to the roster just by trading for a decent 2nd baseman. If they are serious about competing in the NL this year, Sabean HAS to do this. There is probably no cheaper (realistic) trade in all of baseball that can have more influence on a single team's season than the potential replace-Burris trade.

Most Epic Thing In the History of the World

kenshin1 — Sat, 13 Jun 2009 19:24:35 -0000

Most Epic Thing In the History of the World

I found this story on deadspin. Essentially a disgruntled baseball father created a website for a single 16000 (!) word diatribe against a college baseball coach.

No one has ever been able to read the entire thing. It's like Ulysses or a JoshfromHollywood Script.

Draft day thread part 4

kenshin1 — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 00:08:22 -0000

John Hart loves this game day thread. He thinks it has tremendous makeup.

Open Gameday Thread Part 2

kenshin1 — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 02:16:35 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

CAN. NOT. LOOK. AWAY

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As Randy sits at the bar and waits to see if destiny turns up, we the fans are left to contemplate deep mysteries. For instance, if a space ship traveling at the speed of light were to pass through the center of the Giants offense, would it go backwards in time?