
keysh67
Oct 09, 2008 Feb 13, 2012 124 4558
a fan of
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The best landing spot for Peyton Manning
Some might think i'm crazy but hear me out first. No I am not suggesting making a run for the great Peyton Manning. I love the guy and think he's probably the best that has ever played but we are too many pieces away from the Superbowl.
As a huge Peyton Manning fan, I really would like to see him land somewhere where he can complete his legacy.
Let me say that I think both he and Jim Irsay have both agreed on the course of action and they are being careful and calculated about how they announce the breakup so that each one walks away with dignity without any backlash.
Facts:
Irsay can't pass-up getting Luck
The team cannot pay 50+ Million in 2012 to one position
Peyton has 3 years left maybe 4, he won't get another ring with a rebuilding team - he wants out.
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Bellichick is the master!
I am not a fan of Bill Bellichick the person, i find he has arrogant attitude and i question some of the reactions he's had in the past following losses. But I must admit that the guy is brilliant. He is always one step ahead of everyone else.
Two years ago when he drafted two TEs in rounds 2 & 4 I knew he was on to something. It wasn't a coincidence at all. He was overhauling his offense yet once again. The results have been nothing short of amazing. But what he did last weekend really blew me away because I hadn't seen Hernandez used in that capacity before. Hernandez is a great runner. I couldn't understand why he was doing it until this afternoon when the guys on Sirius were discussing the "no huddle" that they were running and the advantage of it combined with the two TE set. It's all about deception and favorable matchups. Start off with a spread offence, two TEs and no RBs. Let the defense make their adjustments (ie a bunch of DBs) then go immediately no huddle and prevent them from changing personnel and pound the ball with Hernandez - smart!
Has much as I dislike the man, I am constantly in awe by his football and strategic brilliance.
Does DEFENSE really win championships?
There have been many posts recently about Rumblers wanting the Bills Front Office to draft a QB in this years draft. Most of those wanting a QB in the draft seem to be of the opinion that Fitzpatrick could never win a playoff game hence the basis for their call for drafting a QB in the first round.
I wanted to take a serious look at the past 20 Superbowls to get a feel for how teams get to the big game and then what do the Superbowl winners have in common. I was hoping to prove a theory that I had but was somewhat taken back by my own findings.
We all heard the expression that Defense wins Championships right? Well I wanted to see if there was any truth to that statement. I simply took the last 20 years of Superbowl matchups figuring 20years was a decent enough sampling for my study. For each winning and runner-up team, I went back into NFL stats to see how that team ranked both Offensively and Defensively during that regular season. I also included their QB, his ranking as well as his QB rating for the regular season.
Winning teams
|
Superbowls |
Team |
QB |
QB Rating |
QB Rank |
Offensive Rankin |
Defensive Ranking |
|
|
2011 |
XLV |
GB |
A. Rodgers |
101.2 |
7 |
9 |
5 |
|
2010 |
XLIV |
NO |
D. Brees |
109.6 |
1 |
1 |
25 |
|
2009 |
XLIII |
PIT |
Big Ben |
80.1 |
24 |
22 |
5 |
|
2008 |
XLII |
NYG |
Eli |
73.9 |
25 |
16 |
7 |
|
2007 |
XLI |
IND |
Peyton |
101 |
1 |
3 |
21 |
|
2006 |
XL |
PIT |
Big Ben |
98.6 |
3 |
15 |
4 |
|
2005 |
XXXIX |
NE |
Brady |
92.6 |
9 |
7 |
9 |
|
2004 |
XXXVIII |
NE |
Brady |
85.9 |
10 |
17 |
7 |
|
2003 |
XXXVII |
TB |
B. Johnson |
92.9 |
3 |
24 |
1 |
|
2002 |
XXXVI |
NE |
Brady |
86.5 |
6 |
19 |
24 |
|
2001 |
XXXV |
BAL |
T. Dilfer |
76.6 |
20 |
16 |
2 |
|
2000 |
XXXIV |
STL |
K. Warner |
109.2 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
|
1999 |
XXXIII |
DEN |
Elway |
93 |
5 |
3 |
11 |
|
1998 |
XXXII |
DEN |
Elway |
87.5 |
7 |
1 |
5 |
|
1997 |
XXXI |
GB |
Favre |
95.8 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
|
1996 |
XXX |
DAL |
Aikman |
93.6 |
3 |
5 |
9 |
|
1995 |
XXIX |
SF |
Young |
112.8 |
1 |
2 |
8 |
|
1994 |
XXVIII |
DAL |
Aikman |
99 |
2 |
4 |
10 |
|
1993 |
XXVII |
DAL |
Aikman |
89.5 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
|
1992 |
XXVI |
WAS |
M. Ryplen |
97.9 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
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8 burning subjects - Mind Dump
Subject 1: Stevie Johnson, what should be done?
Clearly Stevie is immature. I also blame Chan here because when it became evident that Stevie was unable to think like a mature football professional, Chan should have given absolute clear instructions to Stevie and all other players for that matter - that any premeditated celebration or message must be cleared by him first, period. I can't believe that Stevie wrote that on his shirt and that nobody saw it while he was getting dressed in the locker room before the game.
I guess the biggest issue is how do we accommodate the players personality and not squash it? I am starting to believe that Stevie needs this type of crap to fuel his engine.. Are we better off with a motivated Stevie that does a bit of crap of with an un-motivated Stevie that doesn't produce as much? Maybe the answer is replacing Stevie with someone else?
I personally don't think that Stevie is a true #1 receiver. I love the guy and have always been in his corner but he drops too many crucial passes. I also think he's too slow to be a true number 1. I do however think that he is so much on the same page as Fitz that we'd be absolutely crazy to let him go. Stevie is a GREAT #2 receiver. We need to bring in a faster #1 guy. I compare Stevie to a guy like Boldin, good possession receiver in short to medium areas with very good YACs.
IMO, we resign him in order to preserve the team chemistry.
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In desperate need for a spark, Spiller needs to get onto the field.
With the 9th pick in the 2010 draft, the Buffalo Bills pick CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson.
I don’t think that many Bills fans saw that one coming, most were surprised and many were even upset. The Bills who had pressing needs at many key positions: Quarterback, Left and Right Tackle, Pass Rusher, Tight End, Linebacker (inside and out), Defensive Tackle, Wide Receiver, Cornerback and more. Running back was the least of our problems. With both Marshawn Lynch and Freddy Jackson there was absolutely no need to take a Running Back with our only first round pick in the 2009 draft.
After failing to attract a big named football guy and at the time the two names that were circulating were Shannahan and Cowher. Nobody is really sure how seriously they were pursued but in the end, Ralph Wilson chose to entrust the rebuilding process to someone he trusted, someone with whom he had previous experience, someone from the scouting side that knew a thing or two about rebuilding a franchise after having spent 7-8 years rebuilding the Chargers into a perennial playoff contender.
Buddy Nix wasn’t the popular peoples choice but he was probably the right choice. A no nonsense guy, he immediately assembled a staff of seasoned experienced football guys that were known more for their teaching and development abilities than anything else. These weren’t big named guys with rings, they were solid guys that successfully got the most out of their teams and players by teaching them the game from the fundamentals.
So when Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey chose to use the first pick of their regime on what seemed like the only position where the Bills actually had some solid talent, they were questioned. The fanbase was up in arms and rightfully so. Nix and Gailey defended their position that he was clearly the best athlete on the board and that a guy that talented could be used in so many ways. They raved about Spiller’s speed, quickness and return ability, referring to him as a “Jitterbug” type back.
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Thank you Marv !
Although I am probably your worse critic of your tenure as our GM from 2006/2007, I wish to thank you for being such a great person and honorable man. You made a promise to a very special undrafted running back that if ever you were in a position to give him a job you would. I want to thank you for keeping your word, Freddy Jackson has become a hero for many kids around the Buffalo area, he's a great person, a great competitor and a fantastic Buffalo Bill ! Chix, if you are reading this, remember that this guy MUST retire in a Bills uniform, you better make it happen!
I'll also give you honorable mentions for the Kyle Williams find in the 5th round. Meatball is another great person and hard working competitor that wears the Buffalo uniform well and makes us all proud each and every Sunday.
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A Successfull Regionalization Strategy
I found myself writing a long winded comment this morning and decided that maybe I should actually publish it as a fanpost and add a survey to get some feedback.
We all know that the Bills struggle because their market is so small. The concept of regionalization was introduced in 2000 when the Bills moved their training camp to St-John Fisher near Rochester, NY. The plan was to regionalize the product and build up the fanbase in the Rochester area. The move was very successfull and 11 years later they are still there.
In 2008, OBD further extended the idea of regionalization north of the border into the metropolis of Toronto. The Rogers group who were very hungry for bringing in an NFL product into Canada were willing to sell the farm to get it! Wilson got $78M for 5 regular season games and 3 pre-season games. The problem with this was that the Bills were not in control at all here. Rogers had clearly overpaid and was extremely greedy in their approach to selling this series to potential buyers. The goal might have started off being to popularize the Bills in Toronto but it ended up just being a great Cash cow for Ralph Wilson. In the end, Rogers basically allienated potential new fans by gauging them at the door. I was on the list to get season tickets right off the bat and the prices that were quoted to me for seats in the lower bowl between the 20s ranged from $450ea to $550ea. And to add insult to injury, Rogers had two options available: Buy all 8 games up front to guarantee your seats or buy 3 games without any guarantee. YES that's right folks, Rogers was expecting regular fans to dish out $1000 for two seats per game and buy all tickets for the 5y series in advance. Gee, I wonder why the plan failed miserably??
Anyways, I've been giving this a lot of thought over the past few years and I have a strategy that I believe could be very successfull building up a fanbase and corporate support in Eastern Canada. I explain it after the jump...
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Salary cap watch - possible surprise cuts looming
I was listening to Sirius NFL network yesterday and they were discussing how the Oakland Raiders are in very serious cap troubles, it would seem that they are well over the cap by at least 17M and they will need to cut some guys to fit within the cap. The other surprising teams mentioned were Steelers (11.5M) & Texans (8M)
So I started to look at who could possibly be a surprise cut from either of those teams:
Raiders (17M over the cap)
Sebastien Janikowski would be my first target. Much bigger leg than Ryan, which would be a big plus in our windy stadium.
Micheal Huff (s): This guy has never really performed up to his expectations and it would not surprise me at all if he would find himself part of the casualties.
Another possibility could be Khalif Barnes (OT). The just extended both Routt & Seymour within the year and they say that prevents them from re-structuring their contracts. I'm not sure if releasing them would have a positive affect or not but if they could, it seems that Seymour represents $15M against their cap which is huge!! I would definitely consider Seymour in a Bills uniform and I wonder how motivated he'd be to go after Bellichick twice a year?
Steelers (11.5M over the cap)
James Farrior (SILB): Probably still one of the best strong ILBs in the league. He's up there in age at 36 but does not have an injury prone career so it's probably a safe bet that he could give us 1-2 solid years.
They are probably in a much better position than the raider to be able to re-structure some of their contracts to save some room.
Texans (8M over the cap)
Danieal Manning (s) or Kevin Walter (WR). This is such a young team that it's hard to imagine who else could be a cap casualty. Probably Eugene Wilson (s) but i'm not sure that he'd be much of an upgrade for us. Then there's Anthonio Smith (DE) that has a high cap count and with rookie JJ Watt chosen in the 1st, smith could be become a casualty. Maybe Dreesen (TE) but would he be superior to what we already have?
Personally I'd be waiting to pounce on
Top priority: Farrior & Seymour & Huff
second tier: Janikowski, Manning
worth at least some consideration: Manning, Smith, Barnes
Chan must read Football Outsider Stats
I just read an article from the folks at Football Outsiders entitled: "Formation Analysis: Number of WRs Part II"
They discovered that statistically most teams basically have very poor defensive performances against 4/5 receiver sets. I've been quite vocal against Chan's tendency to ignore the TE position in favor of 3-5 receiver sets. Now after reading this article I'm starting to think that he must be smarter than we think. It seems that he's onto something here.
Unfortunately out Defense did not fare well in this study finishing at #29. With all the defensive additions we've seen this year I am quite hopeful that we can drastically improve this stat. The great news is that if this tendency continues in 2011, we are poised to have a great year on offense because we have a great stable of receiving options and Chan seems intent on spreading out the field.
I can't wait for the start of the season!
Go Bills!!
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Next on my list - Kevin Boss
In general I love what Chan has done so far with the team offensively with the exception of the TE position. I'd love to see more production from that position. Obviously our TEs have sucked for quite some time which might explain the lack of TE production.
Kevin Boss is a great blocker and solid in the passing game. At 6'6" 255lbs he'd be a great REDzone target for Fitz. He'd be an upgrade over the guys we have and then when we go with double TE sets with Nelson, we'd really have some big target capabilities. The other nice thing about Boss is the fact that he's still young and has some good years left in the tank.
Seems to me that i haven't read anywhere that Boss was expecting a crazy payday so where's the risk?
Do we have anything to trade for Osi?
They want a first rounder for him but I doubt they get it. What about shipping a few first rounders to them along with a 3rd like Maybin & Leo? With Osi in the mix we no longer need to develop Maybin and Leo might be on the way out now with our shinning new 2nd round pick who seems eager to prove his worth.
I could definitely see Fewell being interested in such a trade. Osi could definitely make the switch to OLB he has the athleticism to make that switch. Can you imagine on third and long having both Osi & Merriman with Dareus & Williams blowing up the middle... I'd love to make a move for Umenyiora, he's still young enough to be an impact player for 3-5 more years maybe more.
Buddy should call Jerry Angelo
All indications are that Kreutz's will be leaving or retiring this year and the bears don't have much depth at that position. This brought me to thinking that we could maybe get something for Hangman. He's quite a luxury to have on the bench as a backup and I certainly think that Wood is much superior as a starter so his days are numbered in Buffalo anyways so we might as well get something in return for him - let's stock pile some picks for next year. I'm certain that he'd be worth at least a 3rd or 4th rounder.
Hangman still could be a starter somewhere and we should be trying to move him in order to get some value for him in return.
Canadian Fans - Let's get to know you
I wanted to write a post for all the Canadian Rumblers.
The idea of this post is so we can get to know one another. The idea here is that we are a community within a community and it'd be nice to know a bit more about ourselves. I'm intrigued to know how many Rumblers are from Canada. So if you live in Canada, let us know and answer the following questions:
1) Which city are you from?
2) How long have you been a fan?
3) How many games do you go see per year?
4) Do you own season tickets?
5) How big is your group of Bills fans?
6) Would you be interested in meeting with other Bills fans to watch games at a bar?
7) Bonus question: Are you also a CFL fan? Which team?
--------------------------------
Montreal
15 years
3-4
Yes, 4 season tickets since 2008 and I added 4 this spring.
I have 2 other friends that each own 4 seats, so we have 16 season tickets - and most of our games we are approx 20-30 people. Unfortunately not many of those guys are true fans. I'd say my group of fans is about 10-12
In Montreal when you walk around with a Bills logo, people throw money at you like you're a hobo. There are no Bars that show Bills games but it would be nice to organize one.
Not really a big fan of CFL, I hate the rules. But I get to see a few Allouette games per year nonetheless.
Nickname series - Results
Last week I started by posting an article "Nickname series - Input phase" to gauge the interest Rumblers had in finding nicknames for our new rookies. From there I collected all the suggested names and created 3 separate posts entitled Nickname series - Marcell Dareus, Kelvin Sheppard & Michael Jasper - giving everyone an opportunity to weigh in on possible nicknames for our newest additions.
I realize that this was somewhat of a corny exercise but given the lack of football to talk about I though people would appreciate a change of pace post.
Now that the polls are closed I wanted to publish the results:
Marcell "the Doctor" Dareus
From a total of 180 votes, the Doctor received 60% with 109 votes.
MD received 17 % of the votes while 7 % liked other names and 13% preferred none at all.
Kelvin "Shepp" Sheppard
From a total of 210 votes, "Shepp" received 77% with 163 votes.
Commander received 2 %, the General 7% while 2 % liked other names and 10% preferred none at all.
Michael Jasper - Conclusion, we aren't ready to give him a nick name yet
From a total of 240 votes, "Tiny" received 17% with 43 votes.
The Wall got 16% of the vote
Mammoth received 12% of the vote
DS (Death Star) got 11% of the vote
Jazz & Shrek each got 5% of the vote
Thing & Whopper got 3%
Reverend, Poseidon & Casper each got 2%
In conclusion I don't think we're ready to give big Mike a nickname yet and I think the biggest reason is that he hasn't earned it yet. The other two guys earned it in college and it carried over into the next level.
Michael Jasper - Let's vote
A few days ago I posted a fanpost suggesting that we come-up with Nicknames for our new rookies. I've sifted through the 46 comments to my post to tabulate the options that were suggested.
In order not to screw the results, I will go one player at a time. Our final guy in this series is also the last guy we drafted in round 7, the big man - Michael Jasper.
This guy was actually the inspiration for this series, he is a mountain of a man currently weighing in at a svelte 378lbs. In his interview he was saying that his playing weight last year was well over 400lbs !! This guy deserves a nickname - big time!
I read a great article about this kid this morning, here it is! I don't know about you guys but I'm proud that our scouts are thorough enough to find these gems in the rough. I for one hope this kid takes this opportunity and runs with it. He has the chance to become our NT and be the anchor of this Defense for many, many years to come.
So without further ado, lets vote:
Kelvin Sheppard - Let's vote
A few days ago I posted a fanpost suggesting that we come-up with Nicknames for our new rookies. I've sifted through the 46 comments to my post to tabulate the options that were suggested.
In order not to screw the results, I will go one player at a time. So let's look at our third rounder, Kelvin Sheppard
I've skipped Aaron Williams because (a) I don't really know him much, haven't watched him play much and haven't really read anything on him that might give me an idea of a good nickname for him. Shepp on the other hand is someone I sort of scouted last year and I've read quite a bit on the kid. He is a great leader on the field and finding an appropriate nickname for him is quite easy. Most rumblers seem to be in agreement, this kid is a great leader of men.
So without further ado, lets vote:
Marcell Dareus - Let's vote
A few days ago I posted a fanpost suggesting that we come-up with Nicknames for our new rookies. I've sifted through the 46 comments to my post to tabulate the options that were suggested.
In order not to screw the results, I will go one player at a time. So let's start with our shiny new first rounder, Marcell Dareus. Oddly enough there weren't that many names that were proposed, many of the suggested nicknames came back to the same theme, the Doctor.
And for those that weren't sold on the nickname Doctor, Buffalo for Ethernity came up with a great quote:
“The Doctor just made a house call on Tom Brady, and the prescription is PAIN!”
So without further ado, lets vote:
Nickname Series - Input Phase
I was writing a response to a post about our newest Mammoth of a player - Michael Jasper and I realized that it will be easy to find him a cool nickname. When we came up with Meatball for Kyle Williams I found it was so appropriate for him.
I thought it would be fun to write a series this week to find nicknames for our new rookies. The way I propose to proceed is to start with an "input" phase where everyone can post their proposed nickname for those 3 players then I'll tally up the suggested options (as best I can) and then I'll re-post a survey with the top 4 options proposed.
I will do this for Dareus, Sheppard & Jasper (Unless you guys want to expand it)
My picks for Round 4 & 5
I'd love to see Nix pull the trigger next on big Marcus Canon. This guy reminds me of Loadhoalt, a huge massive mauler that could be our man at RT for the next 10years! Spiller could easily hide between his legs! At the top of the 4th round he would seem like a steal! I did hear a rumor about an injury? Does anyone know about this?
Then with our second pick in the 4th I'd go with Luke Stocker, a big TE that can be a every down TE, very good inside blocker with very good hands. He's not going to get many YACs but he's a great asset on the line and he's a huge target with solid hands.
Then in Round 5 I'd love to see our commander in chief take the big Robert Sands (s) a 6'4" 217lbs Safety known for his run stuffing abilities
We need a big time pocket passer - let me explain why
At this point I can't imagine he'll get past the Dolphins at #15 but let's say he does slide past them then I think we have a chance that he'll be there at #34. From a pure football standpoint he's probably the best suited guy for the job in Buffalo. He's accurate, he can read a defense and he can slice it through the gnarly winds that inhabit the Ralph in December/January. I think getting drafted by Buffalo could be a humbling experience for this kid. I also think that a guy like Fitz could be a great mentor for him.
I know that people will point to his lack of mobility but I'd argue that if you can read a defense and have the arm to make any throw and that you are very accurate - then you really don't need to be mobile at all. Just ask Peyton or Kurt.
Sure we still have a few questions in regards to our Line but another few years from now with a few additions and I think our line will be on PAR or above average. With the receiving options we have and the great receiving backs that we have we should be looking for a big guy with an accurate big arm. The rest of our offense is already built for that. I keep reading about Chan's love of mobile QBs but nobody is talking about the great receiving core that came out from last year
Lee Evans is still a great receiver and Chan will find a way to get him the ball this year
Stevie is the man!
Parrish was having the best year of his career
Nelson and Jones both showed great promise - both are tall, big & fast
Easley, showed enormous promise but was cut short. I look for him to break out in 2011
Mobile QBs are required when you don't have a good receiving core because plays breakdown. When you have big tall fast receiving options, a QB should never-ever have to leave the pocket. We are stacked with young receiving talent. We should be looking for a QB that can stand tall in the pocket, have the ability to read defenses and have the accuracy and arm strength to make all the throws. Hummm... Who in this year's draft fits that model?
Our team and our weather is built for a guy like Mallet and I for one am hoping he slides past the Dolphins at #15 because I think he'd be a steal at #34.
Using BPA - Keysh's 4 round mock (v1)
I've held back long enough. With this crazy off season it's been difficult, i really look forward to Free Agency every year and this year I feel robbed! I am hopeful that this thing gets resolved by June.
AnywaysIn any case, I am nbow ready to publish my projected mock draft for our beloved Bills. I used the BPA approach for the two first rounds and then it got a little murky. Besides I'm not convinced that BPA means much on day 2 of the draft. If you are going to draft a depth or project players, might as well be someone you believe can work in your system and that can help fill a need.
Here we go!
Evolving the NFL into a sustainable model
When I sit back and look at the current situation and how both sides are digging in their stances I can’t help but wonder if the system has not reached it’s next level. Today the NFL Landscape is basically 2 parties, the NFL (Owners) and the NFLPA (Players association).
The NFL is the league that was formed by the team owners, which also serves as the de-facto owners association also. The problem is that the NFL has become much more than just the owner’s association, it has evolved into a huge business. This business has blossomed over the past 30years into a 9 billion dollar money machine. There are 3 major stakeholders in this business, the Owners, the players and the fans. All three parties have a big vested interest in the well being of the NFL and its future growth.
As a fan who has invested a lot over the past 20years in this industry, I am so disappointed in the NFL leadership. When I see that ego maniacs like Jerry Jones and Jerry Richardson, making moronic comments that derail the process, I realize that something needs to be done. Their actions are certainly not in the best interest of the NFL, and as a stakeholder I think something needs to change. We need to think outside the box!
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Possible scenario on draft day
Now with Marvin Lewis acknowledging the fact that Palmer's days are over in Cincy, I think this opens up an interesting opportunity for us on draft day. Cincy needs another QB way more than us right now and moving up one spot to #3 would basically ensure they get the top pick, even more important if Carolina decides to take a QB with the #1 overall choice.
If they are willing to leave him rot and force him to retire, might as well get something for him. I could see them trading his rights for the #3 spot. We can then turn around and trade Palmer back to either Arizona or San Fran for their 2nd.
We end up moving down 1 spot, which should affect us much because one of the top guys (Peterson/Dareus/Miller) will still be there for us at #4. The good news is that we now have a second round 2 selection with which to take a flyer on Kaepernick.
The only question is if teams are allowed to trade players under contract during the draft but I can't imagine why not? I understand that Free Agents are in limbo but that should not affect players who are under contract.
First 3 rounds - no QB
Today the articles surrounding what Kipper said and his logic made sense. The Bills are in less of a hurry this year than last year. They had ample chances to draft either Tebow, McCoy or Claussen and chose to pass. Now that Fitz has shown some abilities in the Gailey system, I wonder if it would be wise to waste one of top 2 picks on a guy with question marks.
Next year there will be even better quality at the top with both Luck & Pryor coming out. I actually am silently hoping for Luck to slip next year with his new coaching staff so that maybe , just maybe he might slip to the middle. Pryor looks like a much better version of Newton, so I would not be too upset if we waited another year before addressing the position.
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Can the draft affect the fragility of our Franchise?
I was submersed in draft related articles this morning and started to think about what we might decide to do with our #3 overall pick. Obviously at #3 we have a lot of very interesting directions that we could go in. What makes it even better is the fact that we have so many needs that it'd be hard to actually go wrong. We might argue about the importance of one position or another but in the end of the day, I want to trust Nix knows what he's doing and will pick the right guy.
Then I started to consider what the impact would be if we chose a player with Boom or Bust type grades, if the player ends up BUSTING - how will that affect our team? Are we in a position to push the reset button and start over in 4 years? My thought is that the position makes a difference, obviously you never want to admit defeat and have to start over but for most positions it's not that damaging. Where there is serious repercussions is at the QB position. Failing at this position is far more damaging long term to any franchise.
Then I started to think about the guys with questionable character issues, such as Newton, Mallet & Quinn. I wondered what the impact would be our franchise if we chose a guy that not only didn't pan out but also somehow became the nucleus of a fan uproar. The I started to think of how just how fragile our own franchise really is. L.A. is just a few years away so the threat is very real. Our owner has lived a very long and prosperous life but at his age things can go south very fast and the only succession plan is to sell to the highest bidder. Folks, I really don't think that OBD can afford to draft a bad apple, the overall risk could be the ultimate one - Death.
We cannot afford to make errors. We can't afford to lose fan and business support. This team is very fragile and the risk of losing it is high so we really can't afford to gamble on high risk individuals, especially not in the first few rounds and especially not at QB
So this brings me to a question that I would like to ask fellow Rumblers. Just how precarious do you feel our franchise is in? Do you think I am over thinking it? Can we afford to bet on a guy with a ton of character or Boom/Bust flags? Worse yet, can we afford to bet on a guy that has both? Is QB worse than another position?
Adding depth through Free agency
I for one believe that there's too much at stake for the NFL & Players to actually let it go to a lockout or strike situation. I believe there will be a last minute compromise. Call me crazy but that's what I believe.
That being said here are a few Free Agents that I believe could be a good addition to our team:
Will Denver switch back to a 4-3?
The odds are that Denver will switch back to John Fox's 4-3. Actually, their roster is probably already better suited for a 4-3. With the #2 pick in the draft they are positioned for Bowers, who coupled with Ayers could form a great set of DEs.
Elvis Dumerville is coming off an injury and could be the off man out. He would definitely be too small at 5'11" 248lbs to go back to DE and he might have more value to Denver as trade bait to a hungry 3-4 team like say Buffalo. Has anyone heard if Denver will be sticking with the 3-4 or going back to the 4-3? And if they are going back to the 4-3, how much do you think aquiring Elvis via trade would cost? Would he be worth a 2nd round pick?
Imagine, Peterson with our #3 then Locker with our 2nd round selection. Take Luke Stocker with our 3rd round pick.
Take Jarvis Jenkins with our 4th round selection and then trade our second 4th and next years 2nd for Dumerville
At this point, hopefully pickup Casey Mathews in the 5th round
I just wanted to throw this out there at let Rumblers discuss the possibility. Clearly Dumerville is designed to be a Rush OLB and if Denver reverts back to a 4-3 then Elvis might be available through a trade. The other issue is how much would other teams be willing to give for an outstanding OLB coming off of a somewhat serious injury, although muscle injuries tend to heal well. Let the discussion begin...
Don't touch Newton with a ten foot pole!
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/01/31/cam-newtons-media-workout-called-a-publicity-stunt/
This guy is a real circus act! The last thing that we need in Buffalo is this type of guy! Hype, Hype, Hype that all he's about! He can't even let the normal course do it's thing, he needs to attract attention to himself any way he can. Please Mr Wilson, don't let this happen - you don't get to pick this high often so please make it count, choose a mature kid that can come in and have an immediate impact.
If Newton is willing to resort to these type of tactics, how in the world can anyone expect him to sit and learn behind Fitz for a few years? He'd be a distraction to our team fabric from day 1. We cannot miss with the 3rd overall pick and this guy is like a ticking bomb!
Targeting some browns players
Now that Cleveland have settle their Head coaching position and that Shurmur is now rounding out his staff, rumor has it that he's inclined to switch to a 4-3 scheme. They are even considering Dick Jauron as DC.
This means that some of their guys will not fit schematically. Given our glaring needs on on the Defensive side of the ball, I suspect that we'll be potential suitors for 1-2 of those Cleveland misfits.
Making the case for Carimi
Now that Luck has decided to return to Stanford for another season lets now turn our attention to the task at hand - what to do with our 3rd overall pick in this upcoming draft.
Let me start by saying that I feel that Luck returning to Stanford was a great thing for us because I believe that Carolina would have taken Luck with the first overall pick in the draft. Richardson has made that very clear. Now at least we still have a fighting chance at him next year.
This leaves us with the 3rd overall pick this year. What should we do? Many have suggested (me included) that we should address the D-Line (either DT or DE) with either Bowers or Fairley, both of whom are coming off incredible seasons. Then there's Dareus, another Junior, who has two seasons but nothing that indicates that he should be taken so high. The problem is that all three of these guys are Juniors who are basically 1 year wonders like our favorite whipping boy, Mr Maybin. I for one am not that keen on potentially wasting another top pick on another bust.
If we look at the top talent that has experience and that has proven that they are more than just a flash in the pan we have:
Patrick Patterson, who is also a Junior but a solid 3 year starter - This guy looks like the real deal. He doesn't have that many INTs primarily because he's such a good lock down corner. He's big & physical and will be a great lock down corner at the next level. The question that I would ask is: Are we changing from zone to man? I personally think that we are better suited for a zone defense. McGee, Florence & Corner are definitely better suited for Zone and I am tempted to add McKelvin to the mix also. So why would we take a press coverage man guy?
AJ Green, another Junior is also a very solid prospect - he's a 3 year starter that averages 54 catches a year around 900 y and 8 TDs. He's been extremely consistant every year. He's been compared to Calvin Johnson but I don't think that he should be because he never had a breakout year like Calvin. Calvin had similar numbers in his two first years but then had a breakout third year with 76 receptions for 15 TDs and well over 1200yards, whereas Green has remained constant for all three years, never surpassing the 1000y mark or 9tds. Although he's a very solid player and I think he's worth a top 5 pick, I'm starting to think that he's a bit of a luxury for us at #3. If he'd drop to us at #3, I'd almost prefer using him to trade down a few spots.
Gabe Carimi, a senior LT from Wisconsin is arguably the top LT in this years draft. This guy is a very solid starter. He took over for Joe Thomas (3rd overall pick) in 2007 and has started every game since. He is known as a hard worker with somewhat of a mean edge to him and very smart. Not a freak athlete by any means but very good pass defender as well as run blocker. He looked extremely good in the Rose Bowl. This guy is definitely a top 10-15 pick. He is as blue chip as they get in this year's draft. An immediate starter at RT but IMO might also succeed at LT at some point.
I think that we are in a great position to move down a few spots. If Green is still there then I could definitely see Cleveland being interested in moving up for Green. If Peterson is there then options are even better, I could see San Fran being interested. And I could think of a few teams that'd be interested in moving up for Bowers/Fairley/Dareus So I think that we are in a great position to slide down a few spots and start fixing something that should have been addressed a long time ago, our Offensive Tackle position.
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