Rd 1. #10 – Reilly Reiff, T, Iowa

When I first put this mock together Jonathan Martin was penciled in here and it stayed that way for quite some time. In recent weeks I’ve had a change of heart as I’ve come to the conclusion that Reilly Reiff is likely much more ready to start week 1; and I feel you have to draft a starter with a top 10 pick. Much props to the Rumblings community for their insightful research and Keysh76 in particular who showed me the error of my logic regarding Reiff’s shortcomings. Here’s link to that post.

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2012/4/9/2936339/a-different-perspective-on-our-top-target

Rd 2 #41 – Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

I can hear it now… “there’s no way he’s going to make it out of the first round…” Okay smart-guy, he’s the 4th corner on most boards behind Claiborne, Kirkpatrick and Jenkins. Last year the 4th ranked corner behind Peterson, Amukamara and Jimmy Smith was… Aaron Williams… who the Bills scored in the second round.

Rd 3. #71 – Marvin McNutt, WR, Iowa

Let me tell you that before I started researching Reilly Reiff, I had not heard about McNutt, but he kept making big play after big play outside the numbers. He was clearly Ricky Stanzi’s go-to guy. He’s 6-3, 216 and if not for an absolutely STACKED WR class he’d be a household name right now. Mohamed Sanu of Rutgers would also get strong consideration here, but as a Scarlet Knights fan I can tell you Sanu is a playmaker from the slot, not the outside #2 people are claiming he is based on size.

Rd 4. #105 – Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia

Top of the draft talent falling fast because of injury concerns. I think he’ll fall all the way to the top end of the 4th, where his injury risk is mitigated.

Rd 4. #124 – Brandon Taylor, FS/SS, LSU

Hard-hitting, fast, playmaker can play either safety position. He’d bring an edge to Buffalo’s defense and some MUCH needed versatile depth at the safety positions.

Rd 5. #144 – Terrell Manning, OLB, NC State

Good athleticism and size. Grooms behind Barnett at 4-3 Will.

Rd 5. #147– Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin

Wilson can flat-out PLAY and I wouldn’t risk passing on him beyond this point. Don’t talk to me about his height, talk to me about his mechanics which I find excellent. He completed 73% of his passes his junior year despite throwing down-field a whole lot. You cannot claim either of those two points about Brock Osweiler, who I think is a late-round project.

Rd 6. #178 – Jarrett Boykin, WR, Virgina Tech

Rd 7. #217 – Tahir Whitehead, OLB, Temple

Rd 7. #251 – Mike Ryan, OT, Connecticut

The question of whether an elite player is easy to find outside the top five-to-seven picks has been being thrown around this blog for well over a month. So I thought I’d take an admittedly subjective (in my own opinion) view of the 2006 through 2010 drafts to see how it all has worked out. I think a pretty clear and unsurprising pattern emerges.

Again, this is subjective. I’m sure some of you will want to argue the merits of some of these players against others and use different metrics (pro bowl, stats, etc) and also consider injuries etc. Frankly, I don’t have the time to do that although that would make this more scientific. Feel free to hash that out in your comments and if there’s a consensus that I’ve screwed this up I’ll post an update or two.

2006---------------

1. Houston - Mario Williams, DE North Carolina State
2. New Orleans - Reggie Bush, RB USC
3. Tennessee - Vince Young, QB Texas
4. N.Y. Jets - D'Brickashaw Ferguson, OT Virginia
5. Green Bay - A.J. Hawk, LB Ohio State
6. San Francisco - Vernon Davis, TE Maryland
7. Oakland - Michael Huff, DB Texas
8. Buffalo - Donte Whitner, S Ohio State
9. Detroit - Ernie Sims, LB Florida State
10. Arizona - Matt Leinart, QB USC
11. Denver (from St. Louis) - Jay Cutler, QB Vanderbilt
12. Baltimore (from Cleveland) - Haloti Ngata, DT Oregon
13. Cleveland (from Baltimore) - Kamerion Wimbley, DE/OLB Florida State
14. Philadelphia - Broderick Bunkley, DT Florida State
15. St. Louis (from Atlanta through Denver) - Tye Hill, Cb Clemson
16. Miami - Jason Allen, DB Tennessee
17. Minnesota - Chad Greenway, LB Iowa
18. Dallas - Bobby Carpenter, LB Ohio State
19. San Diego - Antonio Cromartie, CB Florida State
20. Kansas City - Tamba Hali, DE Penn State
21. New England - Laurence Maroney, RB Minnesota
22. San Francisco (from Washington through Denver) - Manny Lawson, DE/OLB North Carolina State
23. Tampa Bay - Davin Joseph, G Oklahoma
24. Cincinnati - Johnathan Joseph, CB South Carolina
25. Pittsburgh (from N.Y. Giants) - Santonio Holmes, WR Ohio State
26. Buffalo (from Chicago) - John McCargo, DT North Carolina State
27. Carolina - DeAngelo Williams, RB Memphis
28. Jacksonville - Marcedes Lewis, TE UCLA
29. NY Jets (from Denver through Atlanta) - Nick Mangold, C Ohio State
30. Indianapolis - Joseph Addai, RB LSU
31. Seattle - Kelly Jennings, CB Miami (FL)
32. N.Y. Giants (from Pittsburgh) - Mathias Kiwanuka, DE Boston College

7 Elite Players: 4 in the top 6, 3 peppered throughout the remainder of the round.

2007---------------

1. Oakland - JaMarcus Russell, QB LSU

2. Detroit - Calvin Johnson, WR Georgia Tech

3. Cleveland- Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin

4. Tampa Bay - Gaines Adams, DE Clemson

5. Arizona - Levi Brown, OT Penn State

6. Washington - LaRon Landry, S LSU

7. Minnesota - Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma

8. Atlanta (from Houston) - Jamaal Anderson, DE Arkansas

9. Miami - Ted Ginn Jr., WR Ohio State

10. Houston (from Atlanta) - Omobi Okoye, DT Louisville

11. San Francisco - Patrick Willis, LB Mississippi

12. Buffalo - Marshawn Lynch, RB California

13. St. Louis - Adam Carriker, DT/DE Nebraska

14. NY Jets, (from Carolina) - Darelle Revis, CB Pittsburgh

15. Pittsburgh - Lawrence Timmons, LB Florida State

16. Green Bay - Justin Harrell, DT Tennessee

17. Denver (from Jacksonville) - Jarvis Moss, DE Florida

18. Cincinnati - Leon Hall, CB Michigan

19. Tennessee - Michael Griffen, S Texas

20. NY Giants - Aaron Ross, CB Texas

21. Jacksonville (from Denver) - Reggie Nelson, S Florida

22. Cleveland (from Dallas) - Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame

23. Kansas City - Dwayne Bowe, WR LSU

24. New England (from Seattle) - Brandon Meriweather, S Miami

25. Carolina (from NY Jets) - Jon Beason, LB Miami

26. Dallas (from Philadelphia) - Anthony Spencer, DE Purdue
27. New Orleans - Robert Meachem, WR Tennessee
28. San Francisco 49ers (from New England) - Joe Staley, OT Central Michigan
29. Baltimore - Ben Grubbs, OG Auburn
30. San Diego - Craig Davis, WR LSU
31. Chicago - Greg Olsen, TE Miami (FL)
32. Indianapolis - Anthony Gonzalez, WR Ohio State

6 Elite Players: 3 in the top 7, 3 peppered throughout the remainder of the round.

2008---------------

1. Miami - Jake Long, OT Michigan
2. St. Louis - Chris Long, DE Virginia
3. Atlanta - Matt Ryan, QB Boston College
4. Oakland - Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas
5. Kansas City - Glen Dorsey, DT LSU
6. NY Jets - Vernon Gholston, DE Ohio State
7. New Orleans (From 49ers through Patriots)- Sedrick Ellis, DT USC
8. Jacksonville (From Ravens)- Derrick Harvey, DE Florida
9. Cincinnati - Keith Rivers, LB USC
10. New England (From Saints)- Jerod Mayo, LB Tennessee
11. Buffalo - Leotis McKelvin, CB Troy
12. Denver - Ryan Clady, OT Boise State
13. Carolina - Jonathan Stewart, RB Oregon
14. Chicago - Chris Williams, OT Vanderbilt
15. Kansas City (From Lions)- Branden Albert, G Virginia
16. Arizona - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB Tennessee State
17. Detroit (From Vikings through Chiefs)- Gosder Cherilus, OT Boston College
18. Baltimore (From Texans)- Joe Flacco, QB Delaware
19. Carolina (From Eagles)- Jeff Otah, OT Pittsburgh
20. Tampa Bay - Aqib Talib, CB Kansas
21. Atlanta (From Redskins)- Sam Baker, OT USC
22. Dallas (From Browns)- Felix Jones, RB Arkansas
23. Pittsburgh - Rashard Mendenhall, RB Illinois
24. Tennessee - Chris Johnson, RB East Carolina
25. Dallas (From Seahawks)- Mike Jenkins, CB South Florida
26. Houston (From Jaguars through Ravens)- Duane Brown, OT Virginia Tech
27. San Diego - Antoine Cason, CB Arizona
28. Seattle (From Cowboys)- Lawrence Jackson, DE USC
29. San Francisco (From Colts)- Kentwan Balmer, DT North Carolina
30. NY Jets (From Packers)- Dustin Keller, TE Purdue
31. NY Giants - Kenny Phillips, S Miami (FL)

5 Elite Players: 3 in the top 4 picks, 2 late round picks.

2009---------------

1. Detroit - Matthew Stafford, QB Georgia
2. St. Louis - Jason Smith, OT Baylor
3. Kansas City Tyson Jackson, DE LSU
4. Seattle Aaron Curry, LB Wake Forest
5. New York Jets (from Cleveland) - Mark Sanchez, QB USC
6. Cincinnati - Andre Smith, OT Alabama
7. Oakland - Darius Heyward-Bey, WR Maryland
8. Jacksonville - Eugene Monroe, OT Virginia
9. Green Bay - B.J. Raji, DT Boston College
10. San Francisco - Michael Crabtree, WR Texas Tech
11. Buffalo - Aaron Maybin, DE Penn State
12. Denver - Knowshon Moreno, RB Georgia
13. Washington - Brian Orakpo, DE Texas
14. New Orleans - Malcolm Jenkins, CB Ohio State
15. Houston - Brian Cushing, LB USC
16. San Diego - Larry English, DE Northern Illinois
17. Tampa Bay
(from New York Jets through Cleveland) - Josh Freeman, QB Kansas State
18. Denver (from Chicago) - Robert Ayers, DE/LB Tennessee
19. Philadelphia (from Tampa Bay through Cleveland) - Jeremy Maclin, WR Missouri
20. Detroit (from Dallas) - Brandon Pettigrew, TE Oklahoma State
21. Cleveland (from Philadelphia) - Alex Mack, C California
22. Minnesota - Percy Harvin, WR Florida
23. Baltimore
(from New England) - Michael Oher, OT Mississippi
24. Atlanta - Peria Jerry, DT Mississippi
25. Miami - Vontae Davis, CB Illinois
26. Green Bay (from Baltimore through New England) - Clay Matthews, LB USC
27. Indianapolis Donald Brown, RB Connecticut
28. Buffalo (from Carolina through Philadelphia) - Eric Wood, C Louisville
29. New York Giants - Hakeem Nicks, WR North Carolina
30. Tennessee - Kenny Britt, WR Rutgers
31. Arizona - Chris Wells, RB Ohio State
32. Pittsburgh - Evander Hood, DT Missouri

5 Elite Players: 1 at the very top, 4 peppers throughout the remainder of the round. As far as patterns go, this draft seems like an outlier.

2010---------------

1. St. Louis - Sam Bradford, QB Oklahoma
2. Detroit - Ndamukong Suh, DT Nebraska
3. Tampa Bay - Gerald McCoy, DT Oklahoma
4. Washington - Trent Williams, OT Oklahoma
5. Kansas City - Eric Berry, S Tennessee
6. Seattle - Russell Okung, Oklahoma State
7. Cleveland - Joe Haden, CB Florida
8. Oakland - Rolando McClain, LB Alabama
9. Buffalo - C.J. Spiller, RB Clemson
10. Jacksonville - Tyson Alualu, DE California
11. San Francisco (from Chicago through Denver) - Anthony Davis, OT Rutgers
12. San Diego (from Miami) - Ryan Matthews, RB Fresno State
13. Philadelphia (from San Francisco through Denver) - Brandon Graham, DE Michigan
14. Seattle (from Denver) - Earl Thomas, S Texas
15. New York Giants Jason Pierre-Paul, DE South Florida
16. Tennessee - Derrick Morgan, DE Georgia Tech
17. San Francisco (from Carolina) - Mike Iupati, OG Idaho
18. Pittsburgh - Maurkice Pouncey, C Florida
19. Atlanta - Sean Weatherspoon, LB Missouri
20. Houston - Kareem Jackson, CB Alabama
21. Cincinnati - Jermaine Gresham, TE Oklahoma
22. Denver (from New England) - Demaryius Thomas, WR Georgia Tech
23. Green Bay - Bryan Bulaga, OT Iowa
24. Dallas (from Philadelphia through Denver and New England) - Dez Bryant, WR Oklahoma Sate
25. Denver (from Baltimore) - Tim Tebow, QB Florida
26. Arizona - Dan Williams, DT Tennessee
27. New England (from Dallas) - Devin McCourty - CB Rutgers
28. Miami (from San Diego) - Jared Odrick, DT Penn State
29. New York Jets - Kyle Wilson, CB Boise State
30. Detroit (from Minnesota) - Jahvid Best, RB California
31. Indianapolis - Jerry Hughes, DE TCU
32. New Orleans - Patrick Robinson, CB Florida State

3 Elite players and of course the verdict is still out on several including Jahvid Best and our own C.J. Spiller among others, but I think I dealt the cards fairly at least: 2 in the top 8, 1 in the middle of the round.

Conclusions

Well, the only concrete conclusions are obvious: if you have a top five pick your chance of getting an elite player is very high, and then there is an IMMEDIATE drop-off in every draft in the sample except for 2009 which I think is just an unusual draft.

Think my judgment is off? Let me know in the comments.

The 2006 draft is infamous in Buffalo Bills history.

I remember the day like it was yesterday... a bright, beautiful April Sunday here in New York. My wife (then new girlfriend) was over my apartment early that morning so I talked her into riding down to Radio City with me to see if we could sill manage a couple of seats, but by the time we got there the line was so long down sixth avenue there was no chance of getting in. We just spent the afternoon walking around and now and then I'd stop into a bar to see what was going on (the first round took much longer then).

If you remember, that was the "Reggie Bush" draft. Mario Williams ended up getting picked first overall, but Reggie Bush was the biggest name that day so it was a bit of a surprise that the Texans passed on him. Overall, like every other draft, the day was filled with excitement and anticipation as the Bills pick drew near. And of course as the names came off the board I explained to my wife (then girlfriend) what each player brought to their new team.

Then at #8, the Bills pick had arrived. And the name Donte Whitner was announced. And unlike the seven picks that preceded it, I had very little to say. Embarrassed that I didn't know much about the guy that MY own team just picked in the first round, I rationalized that he was a safety they desperately needed to play the Tampa 2 defense they wanted to install.

But needless to say to any of you... I was annoyed. I didn't know enough about Whitner to hate the pick, but it was one of those moments as a fan where you question if it's worth investing so much of your heart and soul into a team that continues to confound you.

Now there's a reason why I've thoroughly depressed you all to this point in the post. Because, and here comes the pick-me-up, sometimes in life you get a second chance. My fellow Buffalo Bills fans, I present to you, the 2006 NFL draft rewind.

Well, it's more a review... but I hope it feels like a rewind, because as you can see... some wrongs have just recently been righted.

I haven't commented much in recent months, but I've been reading regularly and, like most of you, I want Stevie Johnson re-signed.

Here's my thinking from both camps:

Why Stevie DESERVES #1 cash:

We know he's a difficult matchup in man coverage but considering Gailey's quick-hit passing attack they probably want as many "shifty off-the-line" guys they can get. No wonder they don't mind Spiller at wideout. They envision guys who are open at the line of scrimmage. Gailey understands how much this description fits Stevie Johnson. He's basically grown into a prototype of sorts for Gailey.

Why he's worth most in Buffalo:

Really, I could copy/paste the other paragraph here. His skillset, while impressive in terms of his unique ability, is almost perfectly suited to play in Gailey's offense. He's not going to be a vertical threat. He's doesn't have particularly good hands. He doesn't make many contested catches. He is separated from the ball by very little contact.

Obvious conclusion???

SIGN STEVIE JOHNSON AT #1 CASH. Send a message to your fans and employees: Develop here and we'll pay you. We'll KEEP YOU. You'll WIN HERE.

Don't overpay, but don't over-THINK either.

After seeing Tebow basically run through the Jets defense, I believe the most powerful weapon the Bills have against the Jets is to put Brad Smith in a conventional formation—by that I mean not the wildcat—and using him in exactly the same way the Broncos are using Tebow

My dramatically oversimplified view, this is why it will work:

it clears out the backers with coverage requirements,
forces the d-line to commit to a pass rush,
that creates holes and creases.

Essentially, the Jets defense played their scheme, which against a QB like Tebow—and similarly I would hope Smith—amounts to overkill with regard to pass defense.  The Bills have a weapon that exploits this apparent weakness the Broncos just exposed.

The key, as it was in this Thursday night game, is being a physical runner.  I think Brad Smith passes the eyeball test there.

As you all know, I’m biased in my opinion of our beloved Bills.  That being said, I’m as excited about this team and season as I’ve been since the ‘90s.

On paper these Bills certainly look much improved, and early results seem to corroborate that; but what has struck me is how likeable this team is, even to those outside of Buffalo.

Stevie Johnson is one big game away from being a media darling.  The dude is charismatic and wears his heart on his sleeve.  If he can keep his foot out of his mouth and the Bills have a successful season, he’s a Madden cover waiting to happen.  Let’s get that extension going Buddy, post haste.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is about as “every man” as it gets in the NFL.  If you bumped into Fitz on the street you wouldn’t know you’d just met a starting NFL QB.  He’s unassuming and humble.  Try not liking the guy!  It’s darn near impossible.  And just like Stevie Johnson, he’s a complete “out-of-nowhere” and who doesn’t love to see that type succeed?  Oh, and he's not the "game manager" type many seem to want to paint him as... we know better as Bills fans, and soon enough the whole country will know how much of a fearless gunslinger he is.

Fred Jackson is the consummate pro who's simply earned it.  He’s probably the most underrated back in the game and in my opinion he’s among the top at the position if you consider how well-rounded his game is.

Marcel Dareus has played one game but his presence has already been felt throughout the organization.  His giant smile and outgoing personality belies the explosive aggressiveness of his game.  I think we’ve seen that around here before… let me think.

Kyle Williams is a pro’s pro who demonstrated his loyalty to the Bills with his recent apparently “haggle-free” resigning.  If you’re looking for a building block for a defense, you need look no further.  He’s a giant kid playing a game he loves on Sundays.

I could go on-and-on with this bunch and the men that are coaching them…

I’ll conclude this little love-fest with this statement:  I have no idea if this team can compete with the Pats or the Jets in the AFC east, but I know these Bills are capable of turning around the public perception of the Bills franchise in a New York minute.  The ball is already rolling and building up steam.

I've heard this thrown around all day today and it's something I think maybe I don't fully understand— you be the judge.

Double coverage is a BIG part of every defensive gameplan (NFL or not) and is often dictated by the routes a coordinator calls more than anything else. It's unheard of to man-double cover anybody in the NFL. It's almost always a man-zone combination based on the routes being run.

Stevie Johnson is not the same type of receiver that Lee Evans is and he shouldn't change what he does because the team needs a "#1"... who ostensibly is a deep-threat who can separate on the deep fly.

Unless (and it begs the question) the Bills change how they use personnel based on this move— seems like a mistake to me—it's not going to effect how defenses play them.

Whoever fulfills Evans' role in the offense is a safe bet to see a lot of double coverage.  By design, that shouldn't be Stevie Johnson.

I'll admit up front that Gabbert wasn't even on my radar before the new year.  So, considering the praise he's received leading up to the draft I thought I'd get to know him a little better.

My perception going into this was simple:  "Gabbert WHO?"  My ignorance, of course.

In the last couple of weeks I've reviewed everything I could find on Gabbert; mostly from youtube video, articles, and a handlful of full games (including the the Insight Bowl) I had on DVR.  So that's primarily where this is coming from.  Of course, not being a professional scout I wouldn't expect this to be overly Insightful, but here's what I see:

The Pros:

+ Gabbert keeps plays alive.   As Gailey has addressed directly, the era of the pure pocket passer is a thing of the past.  The QB of the future must be able to escape the pocket and create. Gabbert excels in this area.  He seems to like it a little too much! (see Inconclusives)

+ Gabbert has an elite release.  Nothing to scoff at, really.  He gets tremendous power into his throws that appear to be a flick of the wrist for him.  He makes up his mind to throw and it's out in a flash. He actually seems a little hard to catch in the short area because he can handcuff a receiver.

+ Excellent arm strength.  This is a continuation of the last comment, really.  He can make every throw.

+ Prototypical Size. 6'4 1/2 and around 240 lbs.

The Cons:

- Inaccurate on intermediate and deep balls.  Doesn't matter how quick his release is or how far he can throw the ball if he's overthrowing receivers, which is something he does entirely TOO much.  This is a serious knock on him because many of his misfires didn't seem to be forced by pressure.  He seems to get too pumped and the ball sails on him.

The Inconclusives:

+/- Gabbert routinely pulled the ball down and bolted when the pressure got anywhere near him.  Perhaps he didn't trust his line enough?  Or perhaps he just gets antsy and wants to run at the first sign of pressure.  Inconclusive for me, particularly because in the spread he should have limited reads and if they aren't there he SHOULD try to make something happen with his feet. So, I'm not going to knock him for it, but it's there!

+/- Where are the big spread offense numbers?  Aside from the Insight Bowl (1 TD, 2 INTs but 400+ yards against a tough Iowa defense,) he didn't light it up.  1 game in particular v. Iowa State (who ranked 76th in the nation in points against) was downright anemic (1 TD / 0 INT)

Here's a game recap highlighting their offensive ineffectiveness:
http://espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=303240066

Final Conclusion:

He's certainly flush with intangibles and seems like a great kid with tremendous upside and when that upside stretches into the franchise QB zone you have to take notice. But it's impossible for me to put him in the top 5 with what I know, which admittedly isn't all that much.  So I'll assign a not completely random, but essentially meaningless top 20 grade on him.  If the Bills could finagle a trade down and grab him in the low teens, that would be the ideal scenario for me.  He definitely doesn't knock my socks off.

That being said, if Nix and Gailey (knowing far more than I) give him the nod at #3, I'll be excited and hopeful.  But if I was calling the shots, Blaine would have to wait a while to hear his name.

I thought I'd do a little surface analysis of the idea that the Bills put themselves in a better position by losing games and acquiring the first overall pick.  How has that little idea really played out?

Well, the results - admittedly not a thorough breakdown - were enlightening.

Only FOUR times since 1980 has the team who took the first overall pick in the draft been able to produce a championship within 5 years. The overwhelming trend is that the team continued to miss out on the big one. The average years to championship for teams who DID finally manage to win one was over 12 years! And that excludes the teams that have continued to fail so taking that into consideration it seems completely obvious:

TAKING THE #1 PICK IN THE DRAFT DOES NOT GUARANTEE A TURNAROUND ANY MORE THAN TAKING THE 2ND OR 3RD PICK....

I think it's high time the Bills consider parting ways with Lee Evans.  This season is lost and the Bills will not be ready to compete by the end of next season either (assuming there is a season.)  Evans probably has, at the least, another five seasons left in the tank and his value, although not at a premium, is as high now as you can reasonbly project it to be for the remainder of his career.

I'm not assuming a trading partner can be found, but this is the direction I think I would take if I were the current GM.

I've mostly refrained from posting since the '10 debacle has begun.  Mostly because the frustration of losing saps all of the energy from me to write or even think about this team. It's something I've grown, sadly, accustomed to much the same as many of you I am sure.  But, I had the time and energy today to sit down and write a few things that I think I think... I'll keep it short and sweet...  hopefully, this won't come as just another rehash.

Continue reading this post »

So you're bummed that the Bills didn't draft a LT or a QB in the first few rounds.  Maybe you're thinking about giving up on this team, taking your kids out of school and moving to Montana.  Well, who could blame you?  The Bills have almost zero chance of winning the Super Bowl this year - Vegas has them set firmly at 100 to 1 - and the prospect of them winning even five games seems optimistic at best.

That, and you've always thought Montana was just plain cool.

Well, I probably can't convince you otherwise.  And since they don't start playing the games until September, I'll save the energy until at least August - you know, when they at least start hitting in pads again.

But what I can do for now is plant a seed.  I believe the character Red from Shawshank Redemption said that hope is dangerous thing, but I'm going to plant it anyway.

Fellow Rumblers, I give you the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.

The 2000 Baltimore Ravens defeated the New York Giants 31-7 to win Super Bowl XXXV with none other than journeyman Trent Dilfer under center. But their season didn't even start with this shining star at QB.  No, they started the season with the prolific Tony Banks under center.

Anyone who watched that team play knows it was all about the defense Marvin Lewis put together.  They allowed only 165 points throughout the season (just about 10 pts a game), and managed to make the playoffs as a wildcard with a 12-4 record.

There's no doubt I'm talking about one of the best defenses to ever play in the NFL - Ray Lewis and Peter Boulware were in their prime and Sam Adams and Tony Siragusa were dominant run-stoppers in the middle.  But as great as their defense was that year, their offense was equally bad.

How bad was their offense?  Well, the 2000 Baltimore Ravens managed to play five consecutive games without scoring an offensive touchdown.  Five games.  Zero touchdowns.  That's about as bad as it gets folks, and much worse than we should expect from the 2010 Buffalo Bills.

Will the Buffalo Bills defense be capable of holding opposing teams to 10 points a game?  Doubtful.  In fact, highly unlikely.  100-1?  Maybe.  But do they have to be that good if the Bills offense in 2010 isn't nearly that bad?  What if the Bills offense is mediocre and their defense is only very good?

At any rate, with the tough hand the Bills have been dealt in 2010, it's sure shaping up to be a tough season.  I don't doubt that.  But I will still be looking at each game, individually, as a game that we can win.  If our defense is good enough...  If we've done enough on that side of the ball... and if the Bills can finally take advantage of late season weather games - as we failed to do during the entire Dick Jauron regime because the Bills were ill-designed to play in their own backyards - we might just be able to squeak out a few 2000 Ravens type of victories.  Maybe, dare I say it, even make the playoffs as a wildcard.

Go Bills.

Before I spill the beans on my prospect ranking, let me set the table a bit. This is how I would stack the Bills board, not necessarily how I rate each prospect generally. Some great players are lower on the list because they aren’t scheme fits or play at positions where we don’t have a need (-). In other cases I moved a player up the list due to a need at a position even if it moved him ahead of players I believe are better (+).

I am also listing players I think have a high probability of being gone by the time the Bills pick but I will draw a strikethrough through those names and not count them in the 20 – thus there are actually 28 on the list.

Ndamukong Suh, DT

Gerald McCoy, DT

Sam Bradford, QB

Russell Okung, T

1. Jimmy Clausen, QB (+)

Anthony Davis, T (+)

Trent Williams, T (+)

Dan Williams, DT (+)

2. Brandon Graham, OLB

3. Derrick Morgan, OLB

4. Sergio Kindle, OLB (+)

5. Rolando McClain, ILB (-)

6. Terrence Cody, DT (+)

7. Dez Bryant, WR

8. C.J. Spiller, RB (-)

Eric Berry, S (-)

9. Jared Odrick, DT (-)

10. Jason Pierre-Paul, OLB

11. Bryan Bulaga, T

12. Vladimir Ducasse, T (+)

13. Jerry Hughes, OLB

14. Tim Tebow, QB (++)

15. Brandon Spikes, ILB (-)

16. Bruce Campbell, T (+)

17. Sean Weatherspoon, OLB (-)

18. Joe Haden, CB (-)

19. Mike Iupati, G (-)

20. Cam Thomas, DT (+)

IF the terms of a McNabb to Buffalo trade were as follows:

Buffalo gives 3rd round pick in 2010 draft AND a conditional 2011 pick up to a second round pick if McNabb signs an extension before the start of the 2011 free agency period - if there is one - otherwise it's a 5th round pick in 2011.

Continue reading this post »

While the Bills play wait-and-see in free agency this year, let's not let one T.O. signing make us forget exactly how difficult it has been for Buffalo to lure top-end free agents to sign the dotted line in recent years. Frankly, Buffalo is not a top-of-the-list candidate for any top flight free agent and hasn't been for many years now. Some would say they epitomize the bottom-of-the-list candidate - and that's hard to argue now watching places like Arizona and New Orleans heat up.

Everyone's money is green, but every franchise is certainly NOT on equal footing when it comes to free agency. 

In my view, that has less to do with the city of Buffalo and it's infamous weather and much less to do with Ralph Wilson's spending habits than many realize. Probably the biggest single reason none of these guys view Buffalo favorably is because they don't truly perceive the Bills as being close to competing within their own division.

Okay, the weather doesn't help.

This is where Buffalo is caught in the catch 22. And like any catch 22, the only way to get out of it is to get creative, to do things a little differently than you would otherwise.

Continue reading this post »

Hank Fraley was released by Cleveland on Wednesay in a suprise move after losing his starting job to former first round pick Alex Mack.

The 32 year old Fraley has manned Guard, Center and Tight End for the Browns and - as the ESPN article states - mentored Alex Mack.

Teams like the Bills with a stockpile of young talent on the offensive line could consider him in a similar role. He'd come reasonably cheap and provide the Bills with a versatile cog that would solidify Buffalo's interior line depth.  He could also act as a sixth lineman at TE in a smash mouth running attack.