Welcome to the fourth annual edition of my passing efficiency results.  For those unfamiliar with the statistical details, see below.  It's the same explanation I've posted since 2007.

After Romo's sterling 2009 campaign--the best of his career--he took a step backwards last year, although he still performed well enough to land in the league's top ten.  Of particular interest is his interceptions rate.  After improving every single year he's been a starting quarterback, last year he fell back to a rate of 3.3%, close to his 2008 rate.  I am not greatly concerned about this apparent setback, because of the normal variation that occurs from year to year.  Another way of saying this is he probably was worse than 2009 would lead us to believe, but better than his showing last season.  The fact Romo also had to play games when trailing a good portion of the time certainly did not help.  The other frequently discussed factor to explain Romo's decline is, of course, the offensive line.  It's been beaten to death here, and while I agree it hindered Romo's performance last season, the evidence I've seen is most fans tend to overestimate its importance.

A more relevant discussion, in my opinion, is his age.  My research indicates Romo is in a phase where he is and will be a good quarterback for several more years, but his performance will gradually be in decline.  As much as anything else, his performance in 2010 is probably evidence of that reality.

So how long will Romo continue to be effective?  That's hard to answer with confidence.  Originally I used this passing efficiency metric to determine if, based on Romo's first season as a starter, he was a one-year wonder or someone special.  After comparing his performance at the age of 26 to the most-similar group of historical NFL quarterbacks at the same age, I concluded he would be a very good quarterback.  When I take that same group of similar quarterbacks and follow their career trajectories, their starting careers lasted until they were between 31 and 41 years old.  That's not much useful information.  If I exclude the two most-similar quarterbacks from the 1960's on the grounds that conditioning and medical care improved significantly since then, we're still left with the same range of 31 to 41, but the remaining group is more clearly distributed:  Scott Mitchell 31, Jim Everett 34, Fouts 37, Elway 38, Favre 41 and counting.  My sense is Romo is in the middle of that group, so I would say barring a catastrophic injury he should be effective until 36.  You heard it here first, sports fans!

Jon Kitna turned in a solid but unspectacular season in relief of Romo.  I appreciate his leadership, dedication and courage...but he's no Tony Romo.  Thanks for stepping in and helping right a badly listing ship.  Let's only hope he doesn't have to get into any games next year.

Interestingly, Stephen McGee performed slightly above the historical norms for 25-year olds, although his limited action, mainly against the second-string Eagle defense, is probably not representative of his true performance.  I am encouraged that he did not throw an interception in 44 attempts.

Continue reading this post »

It’s old news now, but I’ll post anyway.  The last two years I tracked the efficiency of all NFL quarterbacks using my passing offense metric.  See below for an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted the last two years.

After a very average 2008 season, Romo bounced back to record the highest observed point per pass value of any starting quarterback in Cowboys history.  However, it was not the greatest season by a starting quarterback in Cowboys history, because other Cowboys quarterbacks have turned in better seasons relative to the rest of the league.  In particular, Roger Staubach played almost all of his career in a league where passing was obscenely difficult, whereas Romo is playing in an era when passing efficiency is at an all-time high.  Still, what Romo accomplished was impressive.  His 2009 season was easily the best of his career, far surpassing his 2006 season and reversing two straight years of decline.

Background on my Point Per Pass Metric:

I've been using a passing offense metric for many years now to gauge how well a QB is doing.  Inspired by baseball SABRmetrician Bill James, I performed linear regressions of NFL statistics and concluded from a big picture point of view, only two statistics mattered:  Yards gained from scrimmage, and turnovers.  The best fit to matching points scored came when assuming the following coefficients:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Simply put, teams that score points rack up yardage and don't commit turnovers.  Note how powerful turnovers are:  A team can, for example, gain 55 yards of offense, but if they turn it over the next play, they actually ended up hurting their team.

With that in mind, I created the points per pass metric, which calculates the effectiveness of quarterbacks.  I consider it a better measure of quarterback performance than the official NFL rankings, since it weighs the value of fumbles, and has direct ties to points scored.  The above two coefficients are used to determine, on average, how many points a quarterback (and his offensive teammates, since everyone else contributes to his success or failure) creates with each passing attempt.  It takes the simple yards per attempt metric we're all familiar with, adjusts it for sacks, and further adjusts it for turnovers.  One interception equates to minus six points; one fumble equates to minus three points.  I treat fumbles as half a turnover, since there's essentially a 50/50 chance of recovering or losing a fumble.  The results will probably be unsurprising for the most part, but sometimes they can appear odd.  One of the things that may cause these oddities are fumbles.  Most people, when looking over a QB's stat line, don't think about fumbles; they just look at yardage, attempts, touchdowns, interceptions, and maybe sacks.  But fumbles are very important, since they are essentially half a turnover.

This season I have included not only the raw points per pass value, as I have in seasons past, but also the normalized value, by dividing the raw result by the league average.  Therefore, an average quarterback will have a normalized value of 1.00, and an above average quarterback will have a value greater than 1.00.  A rigorous statistician would have done research to make sure the mean or average is an appropriate normalizing factor—as opposed to the median, quartile or something else—but time has been at a premium for me this year, so the mean will have to do for now.

Revisiting a Prediction of Romo’s Career Trajectory:

At the end of last season, I compared Romo to the most-similar group of NFL quarterbacks and noted this group underwent a long-term process of performance decline from their mid- to late-twenties until their early thirties.  In particular, every one of the comparison QBs declined at the age of 29.  This group was unusual, as most quarterbacks improve until their late twenties, then decline thereafter.  However, Romo broke the mold with his sterling 2009 season.  I did recognize back then that the most-similar group to Romo did experience one-year reversals of their several year decline, so he may not be out of the woods yet, although his normalized score of 1.54 was the highest of any of the comparison group.  Was this just a one-year fluke, or has Romo turned a corner in his career?  I’d like to think the latter, but the ghost of 2008 could always come back to haunt us.  Let’s hope.

In any event, Romo’s interception percentage has improved with each year in the league.  From a high of 3.9% in 2006, he dropped slightly to 3.7% in 2007, to 3.1% in 2008, to a magnificent 1.5% last season.  This is obviously cause for encouragement, as turnovers are the most important statistic in football.

Notes on the rest of the league:

• The league average last season dipped slightly to 0.397, a modest reversal from 2008, which was the highest value since the 1970 merger.  The long-term trend is clear, however:  Passing efficiency has been improving over the last four decades, and I see no reason for that trend to reverse.
• None of the rookie quarterbacks turned in a season worthy of note, after Ryan and Flacco, turned in outstanding rookie seasons last year.  Flacco improved on his 2008 season, while Ryan turned in a decent but not exceptional performance.
• The Brett Favre rollercoaster continues.  Washed up in 2005, rejuvenated in 2007, an embarrassment in 2008, only to turn in by my measures his best season ever in 2009.  Given how erratic his seasons have become, anyone want to bet he’ll have another good year at the age of 41?
• As I predicted last year, the best quarterback in the NFL is now Phillip Rivers, a crown I expect him to wear for the next few years.
• Peyton Manning was fortunate to win his fourth MVP award.  I don’t begrudge him for it, as I think he will be remembered as the greatest quarterback in league history, but clearly he and Brady are in decline and Rivers is now reaching his peak.
• The Eagles were probably right to let Donvan McNabb go.  At 33, he is declining and his health is a growing concern, although he is the greatest quarterback in Eagles history.  His 2009 season was another very good one, and his career resume is almost worthy of a Canton induction.  While I think Kolb will be a good quarterback, and next season he will probably be better than McNabb would have been had he stayed, I don’t know that Kolb will be in the same league as McNabb in his prime.  This will be an interesting season to watch for both the Redskins and Eagles.
• For those who recall my discussions from the two last years, I noticed Drew Brees alternated excellent seasons with not-so-good years, and expected 2009 to be one of his off seasons.  However, he went against form and turned in his second best season since his incredible 2006 season.  Given his age and his strange cyclical career pattern, I expect him and the Saints to decline next season.
• Many BTB posters doubted Aaron Rogers would be a good quarterback, but he’s turning into one of the best quarterbacks in the league.  Might we see a return to the days of the 1960’s, when the Cowboys and Packers slugged it out for league supremacy?  We can only hope…

The 2009 Rankings:

As I did at the end of last season, I ranked the quarterbacks by efficiency in three groups, based on the number of passing attempts:

• Those with at least 160 attempts;
• Those with less than 160, but at least 30 attempts; and
• Those with less than 30 attempts.

Regular Starting Quarterbacks:

Quarterbacks with between 159 and 30 attempts:

Quarterbacks with less than 30 attempts:

Last year I tracked the efficiency of all NFL quarterbacks each week using my passing offense metric.  This year, graduate school soaked up all my spare time, but now that I'm on break between semesters, I've calculated the 2008 values of all NFL QBs.  See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted last year.

Background on my Point Per Pass Metric:

I've been using a passing offense metric for many years now to gauge how well a QB is doing.  Inspired by baseball SABRmetrician Bill James, I performed linear regressions of NFL statistics and concluded from a big picture point of view, only two statistics mattered:  Yards gained from scrimmage, and turnovers.  The best fit to matching points scored came when assuming the following coefficients:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Simply put, teams that score points rack up yardage and don't commit turnovers.  Note how powerful turnovers are:  A team can, for example, gain 55 yards of offense, but if they turn it over the next play, they actually ended up hurting their team.

With that in mind, I created the points per pass metric, which calculates the effectiveness of quarterbacks.  I consider it a better measure of quarterback performance than the official NFL rankings, since it weighs the value of fumbles, and has direct ties to points scored.  The above two coefficients are used to determine, on average, how many points a quarterback (and his offensive teammates, since everyone else contributes to his success or failure) creates with each passing attempt.  It takes the simple yards per attempt metric we're all familiar with, adjusts it for sacks, and further adjusts it for turnovers.  One interception equates to minus six points; one fumble equates to minus three points.  I treat fumbles as half a turnover, since there's essentially a 50/50 chance of recovering or losing a fumble.  The results will probably be unsurprising for the most part, but sometimes they can appear odd.  One of the things that may cause these oddities are fumbles.  Most people, when looking over a QB's stat line, don't think about fumbles; they just look at yardage, attempts, touchdowns, interceptions, and maybe sacks.  But fumbles are very important, since they are essentially half a turnover.

My Research into Romo, and an Assessment of His Future:

Of course, while we may have an interest in how the rest of the league did, mainly we care about Tony Romo.  And based on my research, there's good news and bad news.

First, the good news.  After the 2006 season, I checked to see how many quarterbacks at the age of 26 had put up values similar to Romo.  Although at the time my database was only partially complete, I was pleasantly surprised at the company he was with.  Since then, my database has grown considerably, although still far from complete.  Eventually I'll have every season by every quarterback in league history, but for now the database is about 60% complete.

Anyway, based on the available data, Romo most closely matched the following quarterbacks in my database:  Ken Anderson, Brett Favre, Scott Mitchell, Carson Palmer, Dan Marino, Joe Montana and Johnny Unitas.  With the exception of Mitchell and Palmer, we're talking about some of the best QBs in league history.  Note that the comparisons with Unitas and Anderson are probably overstated, as they played in an era prior to liberalized passing rules.  When my database is complete, I'll be able to normalize the values from the prior era to make more meaningful comparisons.

So that's the good news.  Mainly what I wanted to establish after the 2006 season was whether history would indicate Romo was a flash in the pan or someone who would be a franchise-caliber quarterback.  Based on my research then, I concluded Tony was not a one-hit wonder, but would be a good passer to lead this team into the future.

Now for the bad news.  After reaching that initial conclusion, I began to look into how those similar quarterbacks did in their next year, at age 27.  These were great quarterbacks, and with another year of experience under their belts, they got better, right?  Unfortunately, no, most of them regressed.  While Romo came up with a sparkling 0.51 value in his first season as a starter, in 2007 his efficiency actually declined to 0.48.  So before this year, I did a more thorough check in my database to see how Romo would perform at the age of 28.  The results were not encouraging:  On balance, this group of quarterbacks declined even further at age 28, and that's exactly what happened to Romo this year.  His value dropped to 0.45, which is barely above average compared to the rest of the league starting quarterbacks.

There's more bad news.  Taking that same group, I followed the trajectory of their careers, and discovered the decline continued until the age of 30.  That is, their median values declined each year until they were 30 years old, when they bottomed out at a value of 0.36.  A passer in this group has a trajectory radically different from the typical quarterback in the database, who starts out slow, reaches his peak at age 30, then declines until he is out of the league.  This group came out of the gates hot, then cooled off with every year, until they reached the bottom when most of their peers had reached their peak.  So based on my research, we will likely have two more years of Romo raising our collective blood pressure.  And if this research is correct--and the pattern this group of quarterbacks follow is absolutely eerie in its similarity--it's going to get worse before it gets better.  This does not speak favorably for Dallas winning a Super Bowl before 2011, assuming Romo remains our starting quarterback.

Okay, that's the end of the bad news.  The good news is there is a light at the end of the tunnel.  The group began to rebound at age 31, when most quarterbacks start to decline, and at ages 32 and 33 turned in years which approached their former greatness of age 26 (note that Palmer is excluded from this group, as he is 29 this season).  The group had median values of 0.48 and 0.46 respectively for those two years, then begin to decline again.  Those values are plenty good enough for a quarterback to win a Super Bowl, and in fact was done by Montana in 1988.

Many of you may well be skeptical of this analysis, particularly since it is not delivering news that is reassuring to us Cowboys fans.  One may believe that every quarterback and the circumstances of a season is completely unique, and that I am assuming too much in lumping together this group of quarterbacks and following their careers.  This would seem to be a reasonable objection, except for the fact that, as I mentioned before, the group moved along with eerie similarity.  You would be able to find the occasional reversal of decline in one year of one quarterback, but the pattern has a strong trend to it.  And that pattern is decline until the quarterback reaches 30 years old, followed by a three year rebound.  It may be that Romo's decline in performance is largely attributable to the play of the offensive line this year, as several have advocated.  But if that were the case, why does this whole group follow such a strong pattern?  Did all the other quarterbacks in this group coincidentally experience a drop off in pass protection at age 28?  Not likely.  The pass protection breakdown seems to be secondary to a larger problem, more like a long-term learning process these quarterbacks go through after experiencing the initial flush of success.  For example, Romo had the highest rate of fumbles per sack of any of the regular starting quarterbacks this year at 65%, although there were a few other quarterbacks that were close.  Is that the fault of his offensive line?  No, it's due to poor ball protection.

it will be interesting to watch how Romo's career progresses (or regresses) over the next couple of years.  And I should point out that I am not saying with certainty he will get worse the next two years.  I am saying that his career fits well into the mold of other great historical quarterbacks, who experienced an inexplicable decline phase at the traditional peak of their careers; and that I consider it very likely he will decline the next two seasons.

One more thought about our star QB before I move on to my comments about the rest of the league.  One, despite the apparent increase in impulse throws this year, his percentage of interceptions per attempt actually declined for the second straight season.  It was 3.9% in 2006, dropped slightly to 3.7% last year, and to 3.1% this season.

Other notes:

• The league average value this season for quarterbacks was 0.408, the highest value in my database, and my annual league database goes back to 1991.  The league-wide benefits of passing have been rising for three straight years.  That makes Romo's decline all the more noteworthy.
  
• Because his career did not get rolling until the age of 28, he did not fit the comparison group to Romo, but the career of Kurt Warner has the same general trajectory of the other similar quarterbacks.  After his incredible 1999-2001 seasons, he looked like he was washed up by 2003.  This year he posted the third best season of his career, and the fourtth straight strong season.  He's 37, and will probably not repeat this season's performance again, but the rehabilitation of his career is complete.
• Matt Ryan had an incredible season as a rookie.  I could find only six other quarterbacks in my database who attempted at least 160 passes their rookie season who posted a passing value of greater than 0.40.  They were Charlie Batch (1998), Aaron Brooks (2000), Charlie Conerly (1948), Joe Flacco (2008), Jeff Garcia (1999), Dan Marino (1983) and Ben Roethlisberger (2004).  However, Conerly and Garcia were relatively old for rookies, being 27 and 29, respectively.
  
• After posting the second-best season of his career last year, Brett Favre fell back down to earth.  His yards per attempt plunged, and also threw 22 interceptions.  Not pretty.
• So how smart do the Jets feel now, after trading away the best QB this season for one of the worst?  I've always been a Chad Pennington fan, he protects the ball very well and plays a smart game.  A perfect quarterback for Sparano's system.  And this season, he narrowly missed having his best season ever, in 2002.
  
• Speaking of Garcia, he followed up the best season of his career last season with another outstanding year.  Along with Favre and Warner, Garcia is extending the notion of how long a quarterback can play at a championship level.
• Peyton Manning bounced back from his somewhat disappointing last season.  His value this year of 0.56 still puts him among the best quarterbacks in the league.  His third MVP award is well deserved.  Now 32, he is starting to show signs of decline from his incredible 2004-2006 peak, but I have little doubt he will be the greatest quarterback in league history when he eventually retires.
  
• Despite the grief given to Donvan McNabb, he turned in another excellent overall season.  At 32, his best seasons are almost certainly behind him, but as we found out last week he's still a very dangerous quarterback.
  
• Both Jason Campbell and Eli Manning turned in the best seasons of their careers.  Many think Campbell won't make it in the long term, but I've always thought he's a fine prospect, and his performance this year helped bolster my case.  His value this year was virtually indistinguishable from Romo's.
• Few people pay attention to Jake Delhomme, but he had another very good season, picking up where he left off prior to his 2007 injury.
  
• Phillip Rivers turned in the best season of his career, and one of the 25 or so best ever in my database.  This despite the deep decline in the Charger's running game, significant problems with the offensive line, and the worst statistical season by Antonio Gates since his rookie season.  This is Exhibit B for those who want to lay the blame of Romo's recent performance at the feet of the offensive line, and end the discussion there.  I suspect Norv Turner's game calling is helping him here.  Rivers is just entering his prime at 27, and has the ability to be a great one.
• Jay Cutler has shown steady improvement each year, and this year he turned into one of the best in the league.  I'm curious how he will fare under the new Denver coaching staff.  At the age of 25, he's still got plenty of growth potential.
• It was masked by their gaudy team record, but Ben Roethlisberger regressed back to his 2006 form this season.  This is the third straight season of mediocrity, after his first two magical seasons.
  
• For those who recall my discussions from last year, I noticed Drew Brees alternated excellent seasons with not-so-good years, and this was his bounce back season.  He turned in his second best season ever, narrowly missing his incredible 2006 season.  If the career pattern holds, however, Brees will decline next season.
  

The 2008 Rankings:

As I did at the end of last season, I ranked the quarterbacks by efficiency in three groups, based on the number of passing attempts:

• Those with at least 160 attempts;
• Those with less than 160, but at least 30 attempts; and
• Those with less than 30 attempts.

Quarterbacks with at least 160 attempts:

Pennington, Mia                                                 0.60
Rivers, SD                                                         0.59
Brees, NO                                                         0.58
Manning, Ind                                                      0.56
Delhomme, Car                                                  0.53
Warner, Ari                                                        0.52
Cutler, Den                                                        0.51
Garcia, TB                                                         0.51
Ryan, Atl                                                           0.51
Schaub, Hou                                                     0.49
McNabb, Phi                                                     0.49
Collins, Ten                                                       0.48
Rogers, GB                                                       0.48
Cassel, NE                                                        0.46
Manning, NYG                                                   0.46
Wallace, Sea                                                     0.45
Romo, Dal                                                         0.45
Campbell, Was                                                  0.44
Edwards, Buf                                                     0.42
Flacco, Bal                                                        0.42
Garrard, Jax                                                       0.41
Orton, Chi                                                         0.39
Hill, SF                                                             0.38
Rosenfels, Hou                                                  0.36
Orlovsky, Det                                                    0.35
Thigpen, KC                                                      0.35
Russell, Oak                                                     0.34
Roethlisberger, Pit                                             0.33
Bulger, StL                                                       0.32
Favre, NYJ                                                        0.30
Frerotte, Min                                                     0.29
Griese, SF                                                        0.29
Anderson, Cle                                                   0.26
Fitzpatrick, Cin                                                  0.21
Hasselbeck, Sea                                               0.20
O'Sullivan, SF                                                   0.19

Quarterbacks with between 159 and 30 attempts:

Leftwich, Pit                                                     0.72
Sorgi, Ind                                                         0.59
Quinn, Cle                                                        0.43
Jackson, Min                                                    0.42
C. Palmer, Cin                                                  0.26
Kitna, Det                                                         0.21
Grossman, Chi                                                 0.20
Culpepper, Det                                                 0.14
Green, StL                                                       0.14
Huard, KC                                                        0.10
Young, Ten                                                      0.07
Johnson, Dal                                                    0.05
Losman, Buf                                                   -0.06
Dorsey, Cle                                                    -0.13
Walter, Oak                                                   -0.14
Kolb, Phi                                                        -0.28

Quarterbacks with less than 30 attempts:

Smith, Bal                                                      1.62
Gray, KC                                                        0.95
Carr, NYG                                                       0.87
Brady, NE                                                      0.69
Henne, Mia                                                    0.56
Croyle, KC                                                     0.47
Leinart, Ari                                                     0.40
Stanton, Det                                                  0.37
O'Connell, NE                                                0.30
Dixon, Pit                                                      0.30
Berlin, StL                                                     0.20
Lemon, Jax                                                   0.00
McCown, TB                                                  0.00
Bollinger, Dal                                                -0.06
Simms, Ten                                                  -0.10
Frye, Sea                                                     -0.22
Ramsey, Den                                               -0.40
Flynn, GB                                                    -0.48
J. Palmer, Cin                                               -0.64
Clemens, NYJ                                               -0.68
Gradkowski, Cle                                            -0.69
Henson, Det                                                 -1.30
Tuiasosopo, Oak                                          -1.80

The Giants didn't waste much time ending Plaxico Burress' season.  They have fined him, suspended him and placed him on reserve non-football injury list.  First time I've heard of that list.  Anyway, as usual the Giants do the right thing and jettison a player who thinks about himself more than the team, see also Shockey comma Jeremy.

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/11147136

It will be interesting to see if they miss a beat with this, as Toomer, Smith and Hixon are all solid receivers.

It's rare to have anyone in the league openly criticize an NFL official, but Jerry Jones did just that when commenting on the outrageous non-fumble call at the end of the Denver -San Diego game.

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/10978909

The referee of the game, Ed Hochuli, is widely respected as the best in the league.  In a poll of NFL head coaches last year for the best referee, he tied with Mike Carey with the most votes.  Most of us know Hochuli as the referee who provides clear and thorough explanations of the play calls, and prior to Sunday as someone who seldom blew calls.

Houchili is also head of the NFL Referees Association, which negotiated a sizable pay increase for referees back in 2001.  Maybe Jerry was slamming Houchili for negotiating a better deal?  Why else would he publicly slam such a respected figure?

Given some of the crazy calls and non-calls last night, maybe Jerry should have kept his mouth shut.

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results.  See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks.  The only difference is this diary gives the values of all QBs who threw at least one pass this season, organized into three groups, based on the number of attempts:

• Those with at least 160 attempts;
• Those with less than 160, but at least 30 attempts; and
• Those with less than 30 attempts.

Continue reading this post »

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks.  The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 160 pass attempts.

Continue reading this post »

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks.  The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 150 pass attempts.

Continue reading this post »

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks.  The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 140 pass attempts.

Continue reading this post »

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks.  The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 130 pass attempts.

Continue reading this post »

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks.  The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 80 pass attempts.

Continue reading this post »

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks.  The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 90 pass attempts.

Continue reading this post »

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks.  The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 90 pass attempts.

Continue reading this post »

I'll try to stay out of the way of Grizz's preview of this week's matchup, by looking at a few stats and some history.  Hopefully I won't step on his toes; he normally looks at different things than what I'm going to talk about, so I should be okay.

Continue reading this post »

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks.  The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 80 pass attempts.

Continue reading this post »

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks.  The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 70 pass attempts.

Continue reading this post »

This has been a season of firsts for the Cowboys.  Three weeks ago, they beat the Rams at home for the first time since 1981 (they had lost four straight there, including three games when they were favored).  Two weeks ago, Dallas won in Buffalo for only the second time ever, and the first time since 1971.  Last week, Dallas lost at home to New England for the first time ever.  We also started out 5-0 for the first time since 1983.

This week we have yet another odd situation.  Can anyone remember the last time Dallas won a regular season game against the Vikings at Texas Stadium?  That's right, we've never beaten Minnesota at home in the regular season, since we've moved from the Cotton Bowl in 1971.  We did win two playoff games against them there, in 1977 and 1996, and twice in the Cotton Bowl (1961 and 1966).  But in the regular season at Texas Stadium, we're 0-6, with losses coming in 1974, 1978, 1987, 1988, 1998 and 2000.

Let's hope the pattern of ground-breaking results continues one more week, and we can finally win there, before Texas Stadium is demolished.

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks.  The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 60 pass attempts.

Continue reading this post »

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks.  The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 50 pass attempts.

Continue reading this post »

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks.  The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 40 pass attempts.

Kurt Warner's one game heroics against Pittsburgh qualifies him temporarily as the league leader, but after him, Romo ranks as the league's best QB, narrowly edging out Tom Brady.  What Romo is doing is truly mind-boggling considering he has not yet started a full season's worth of 16 games in his career.  Other notables:  Neither Garrard nor Garcia have yet to throw an interception this year; the numbers Brett Favre are putting up are, if he were to maintain this level of peformance, the best of his storied career.  And, for the third straight week, Dallas' defense caused the value of their opposing quarterback to plummet.

Continue reading this post »

My little passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I posted last week.  The only difference is minimum cutoff for making the list is 30 pass attempts.

Note that Romo's numbers declined slightly again this week, although he's still very high.  Mcnabb was the big mover this week, vaulting from the middle of the pack to the edge of the top performers.  Schaub was the big loser; throwing two interceptions, fumbling twice and getting sacked three times will wreck a player's score under this system.

Continue reading this post »

My little passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details:  It's the same text I posted last week.  The only difference is minimum cutoff for making the list is 20 pass attempts.

Note that Romo's numbers declined slightly from last week, although he still ranks very high.  Trent Green's numbers went from pretty good to poor after playing us.  Four interceptions and a fumble are next to impossible to overcome, and fortunately we were recipients, not the donors.

Continue reading this post »

For those of you who live outside Texas, and who don't have the NFL Ticket, here's a graphic to see if you'll get Sunday's game:

http://www.the506.com/nflmaps/2007-0...

Continue reading this post »

I've been using a passing offense metric for many years now to gauge how well a QB is doing.  Inspired by baseball SABRmetrician Bill James, I performed linear regressions of NFL statistics and concluded from a big picture point of view, only two statistics mattered:  Yards gained from scrimmage, and turnovers.  The best fit to matching points scored came when assuming the following coefficients:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Simply put, teams that score points rack up yardage and don't commit turnovers.  Note how powerful turnovers are:  A team can, for example, gain 55 yards of offense, but if they turn it over the next play, they actually ended up hurting their team.

Continue reading this post »