SB Nation User Blog: kindablue

Points Per Pass Metric, Final 2008 Results (All QBs)

kindablue — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 14:53:01 -0000

Last year I tracked the efficiency of all NFL quarterbacks each week using my passing offense metric. This year, graduate school soaked up all my spare time, but now that I'm on break between semesters, I've calculated the 2008 values of all NFL QBs. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted last year.

Background on my Point Per Pass Metric:

I've been using a passing offense metric for many years now to gauge how well a QB is doing. Inspired by baseball SABRmetrician Bill James, I performed linear regressions of NFL statistics and concluded from a big picture point of view, only two statistics mattered: Yards gained from scrimmage, and turnovers. The best fit to matching points scored came when assuming the following coefficients:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Simply put, teams that score points rack up yardage and don't commit turnovers. Note how powerful turnovers are: A team can, for example, gain 55 yards of offense, but if they turn it over the next play, they actually ended up hurting their team.

With that in mind, I created the points per pass metric, which calculates the effectiveness of quarterbacks. I consider it a better measure of quarterback performance than the official NFL rankings, since it weighs the value of fumbles, and has direct ties to points scored. The above two coefficients are used to determine, on average, how many points a quarterback (and his offensive teammates, since everyone else contributes to his success or failure) creates with each passing attempt. It takes the simple yards per attempt metric we're all familiar with, adjusts it for sacks, and further adjusts it for turnovers. One interception equates to minus six points; one fumble equates to minus three points. I treat fumbles as half a turnover, since there's essentially a 50/50 chance of recovering or losing a fumble. The results will probably be unsurprising for the most part, but sometimes they can appear odd. One of the things that may cause these oddities are fumbles. Most people, when looking over a QB's stat line, don't think about fumbles; they just look at yardage, attempts, touchdowns, interceptions, and maybe sacks. But fumbles are very important, since they are essentially half a turnover.

My Research into Romo, and an Assessment of His Future:

Of course, while we may have an interest in how the rest of the league did, mainly we care about Tony Romo. And based on my research, there's good news and bad news.

First, the good news. After the 2006 season, I checked to see how many quarterbacks at the age of 26 had put up values similar to Romo. Although at the time my database was only partially complete, I was pleasantly surprised at the company he was with. Since then, my database has grown considerably, although still far from complete. Eventually I'll have every season by every quarterback in league history, but for now the database is about 60% complete.

Anyway, based on the available data, Romo most closely matched the following quarterbacks in my database: Ken Anderson, Brett Favre, Scott Mitchell, Carson Palmer, Dan Marino, Joe Montana and Johnny Unitas. With the exception of Mitchell and Palmer, we're talking about some of the best QBs in league history. Note that the comparisons with Unitas and Anderson are probably overstated, as they played in an era prior to liberalized passing rules. When my database is complete, I'll be able to normalize the values from the prior era to make more meaningful comparisons.

So that's the good news. Mainly what I wanted to establish after the 2006 season was whether history would indicate Romo was a flash in the pan or someone who would be a franchise-caliber quarterback. Based on my research then, I concluded Tony was not a one-hit wonder, but would be a good passer to lead this team into the future.

Now for the bad news. After reaching that initial conclusion, I began to look into how those similar quarterbacks did in their next year, at age 27. These were great quarterbacks, and with another year of experience under their belts, they got better, right? Unfortunately, no, most of them regressed. While Romo came up with a sparkling 0.51 value in his first season as a starter, in 2007 his efficiency actually declined to 0.48. So before this year, I did a more thorough check in my database to see how Romo would perform at the age of 28. The results were not encouraging: On balance, this group of quarterbacks declined even further at age 28, and that's exactly what happened to Romo this year. His value dropped to 0.45, which is barely above average compared to the rest of the league starting quarterbacks.

There's more bad news. Taking that same group, I followed the trajectory of their careers, and discovered the decline continued until the age of 30. That is, their median values declined each year until they were 30 years old, when they bottomed out at a value of 0.36. A passer in this group has a trajectory radically different from the typical quarterback in the database, who starts out slow, reaches his peak at age 30, then declines until he is out of the league. This group came out of the gates hot, then cooled off with every year, until they reached the bottom when most of their peers had reached their peak. So based on my research, we will likely have two more years of Romo raising our collective blood pressure. And if this research is correct--and the pattern this group of quarterbacks follow is absolutely eerie in its similarity--it's going to get worse before it gets better. This does not speak favorably for Dallas winning a Super Bowl before 2011, assuming Romo remains our starting quarterback.

Okay, that's the end of the bad news. The good news is there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The group began to rebound at age 31, when most quarterbacks start to decline, and at ages 32 and 33 turned in years which approached their former greatness of age 26 (note that Palmer is excluded from this group, as he is 29 this season). The group had median values of 0.48 and 0.46 respectively for those two years, then begin to decline again. Those values are plenty good enough for a quarterback to win a Super Bowl, and in fact was done by Montana in 1988.

Many of you may well be skeptical of this analysis, particularly since it is not delivering news that is reassuring to us Cowboys fans. One may believe that every quarterback and the circumstances of a season is completely unique, and that I am assuming too much in lumping together this group of quarterbacks and following their careers. This would seem to be a reasonable objection, except for the fact that, as I mentioned before, the group moved along with eerie similarity. You would be able to find the occasional reversal of decline in one year of one quarterback, but the pattern has a strong trend to it. And that pattern is decline until the quarterback reaches 30 years old, followed by a three year rebound. It may be that Romo's decline in performance is largely attributable to the play of the offensive line this year, as several have advocated. But if that were the case, why does this whole group follow such a strong pattern? Did all the other quarterbacks in this group coincidentally experience a drop off in pass protection at age 28? Not likely. The pass protection breakdown seems to be secondary to a larger problem, more like a long-term learning process these quarterbacks go through after experiencing the initial flush of success. For example, Romo had the highest rate of fumbles per sack of any of the regular starting quarterbacks this year at 65%, although there were a few other quarterbacks that were close. Is that the fault of his offensive line? No, it's due to poor ball protection.

it will be interesting to watch how Romo's career progresses (or regresses) over the next couple of years. And I should point out that I am not saying with certainty he will get worse the next two years. I am saying that his career fits well into the mold of other great historical quarterbacks, who experienced an inexplicable decline phase at the traditional peak of their careers; and that I consider it very likely he will decline the next two seasons.

One more thought about our star QB before I move on to my comments about the rest of the league. One, despite the apparent increase in impulse throws this year, his percentage of interceptions per attempt actually declined for the second straight season. It was 3.9% in 2006, dropped slightly to 3.7% last year, and to 3.1% this season.

Other notes:

The league average value this season for quarterbacks was 0.408, the highest value in my database, and my annual league database goes back to 1991. The league-wide benefits of passing have been rising for three straight years. That makes Romo's decline all the more noteworthy.
Because his career did not get rolling until the age of 28, he did not fit the comparison group to Romo, but the career of Kurt Warner has the same general trajectory of the other similar quarterbacks. After his incredible 1999-2001 seasons, he looked like he was washed up by 2003. This year he posted the third best season of his career, and the fourtth straight strong season. He's 37, and will probably not repeat this season's performance again, but the rehabilitation of his career is complete.
Matt Ryan had an incredible season as a rookie. I could find only six other quarterbacks in my database who attempted at least 160 passes their rookie season who posted a passing value of greater than 0.40. They were Charlie Batch (1998), Aaron Brooks (2000), Charlie Conerly (1948), Joe Flacco (2008), Jeff Garcia (1999), Dan Marino (1983) and Ben Roethlisberger (2004). However, Conerly and Garcia were relatively old for rookies, being 27 and 29, respectively.
After posting the second-best season of his career last year, Brett Favre fell back down to earth. His yards per attempt plunged, and also threw 22 interceptions. Not pretty.
So how smart do the Jets feel now, after trading away the best QB this season for one of the worst? I've always been a Chad Pennington fan, he protects the ball very well and plays a smart game. A perfect quarterback for Sparano's system. And this season, he narrowly missed having his best season ever, in 2002.
Speaking of Garcia, he followed up the best season of his career last season with another outstanding year. Along with Favre and Warner, Garcia is extending the notion of how long a quarterback can play at a championship level.
Peyton Manning bounced back from his somewhat disappointing last season. His value this year of 0.56 still puts him among the best quarterbacks in the league. His third MVP award is well deserved. Now 32, he is starting to show signs of decline from his incredible 2004-2006 peak, but I have little doubt he will be the greatest quarterback in league history when he eventually retires.
Despite the grief given to Donvan McNabb, he turned in another excellent overall season. At 32, his best seasons are almost certainly behind him, but as we found out last week he's still a very dangerous quarterback.
Both Jason Campbell and Eli Manning turned in the best seasons of their careers. Many think Campbell won't make it in the long term, but I've always thought he's a fine prospect, and his performance this year helped bolster my case. His value this year was virtually indistinguishable from Romo's.
Few people pay attention to Jake Delhomme, but he had another very good season, picking up where he left off prior to his 2007 injury.
Phillip Rivers turned in the best season of his career, and one of the 25 or so best ever in my database. This despite the deep decline in the Charger's running game, significant problems with the offensive line, and the worst statistical season by Antonio Gates since his rookie season. This is Exhibit B for those who want to lay the blame of Romo's recent performance at the feet of the offensive line, and end the discussion there. I suspect Norv Turner's game calling is helping him here. Rivers is just entering his prime at 27, and has the ability to be a great one.
Jay Cutler has shown steady improvement each year, and this year he turned into one of the best in the league. I'm curious how he will fare under the new Denver coaching staff. At the age of 25, he's still got plenty of growth potential.
It was masked by their gaudy team record, but Ben Roethlisberger regressed back to his 2006 form this season. This is the third straight season of mediocrity, after his first two magical seasons.
For those who recall my discussions from last year, I noticed Drew Brees alternated excellent seasons with not-so-good years, and this was his bounce back season. He turned in his second best season ever, narrowly missing his incredible 2006 season. If the career pattern holds, however, Brees will decline next season.

The 2008 Rankings:

As I did at the end of last season, I ranked the quarterbacks by efficiency in three groups, based on the number of passing attempts:

Those with at least 160 attempts;
Those with less than 160, but at least 30 attempts; and
Those with less than 30 attempts.

Quarterbacks with at least 160 attempts:

Pennington, Mia 0.60
Rivers, SD               0.59
Brees, NO                 0.58
Manning, Ind            0.56
Delhomme, Car    0.53
Warner, Ari          0.52
Cutler, Den            0.51
Garcia, TB           0.51
Ryan, Atl             0.51
Schaub, Hou             0.49
McNabb, Phi         0.49
Collins, Ten           0.48
Rogers, GB               0.48
Cassel, NE          0.46
Manning, NYG 0.46
Wallace, Sea       0.45
Romo, Dal             0.45
Campbell, Was    0.44
Edwards, Buf         0.42
Flacco, Bal          0.42
Garrard, Jax               0.41
Orton, Chi               0.39
Hill, SF                     0.38
Rosenfels, Hou    0.36
Orlovsky, Det          0.35
Thigpen, KC            0.35
Russell, Oak           0.34
Roethlisberger, Pit           0.33
Bulger, StL           0.32
Favre, NYJ            0.30
Frerotte, Min           0.29
Griese, SF            0.29
Anderson, Cle       0.26
Fitzpatrick, Cin    0.21
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.20
O'Sullivan, SF       0.19

Quarterbacks with between 159 and 30 attempts:

Leftwich, Pit         0.72
Sorgi, Ind               0.59
Quinn, Cle        0.43
Jackson, Min    0.42
C. Palmer, Cin      0.26
Kitna, Det             0.21
Grossman, Chi       0.20
Culpepper, Det       0.14
Green, StL           0.14
Huard, KC            0.10
Young, Ten          0.07
Johnson, Dal    0.05
Losman, Buf       -0.06
Dorsey, Cle          -0.13
Walter, Oak             -0.14
Kolb, Phi          -0.28

Quarterbacks with less than 30 attempts:

Smith, Bal        1.62
Gray, KC          0.95
Carr, NYG         0.87
Brady, NE        0.69
Henne, Mia          0.56
Croyle, KC       0.47
Leinart, Ari 0.40
Stanton, Det    0.37
O'Connell, NE    0.30
Dixon, Pit        0.30
Berlin, StL       0.20
Lemon, Jax       0.00
McCown, TB          0.00
Bollinger, Dal    -0.06
Simms, Ten    -0.10
Frye, Sea           -0.22
Ramsey, Den       -0.40
Flynn, GB          -0.48
J. Palmer, Cin       -0.64
Clemens, NYJ -0.68
Gradkowski, Cle          -0.69
Henson, Det           -1.30
Tuiasosopo, Oak          -1.80

Plaxico Done for the Year

kindablue — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 23:26:01 -0000

The Giants didn't waste much time ending Plaxico Burress' season. They have fined him, suspended him and placed him on reserve non-football injury list. First time I've heard of that list. Anyway, as usual the Giants do the right thing and jettison a player who thinks about himself more than the team, see also Shockey comma Jeremy.

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/11147136

It will be interesting to see if they miss a beat with this, as Toomer, Smith and Hixon are all solid receivers.

Jerry Jones: Hochuli a "Highly Criticized Official"

kindablue — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 13:36:43 -0000

It's rare to have anyone in the league openly criticize an NFL official, but Jerry Jones did just that when commenting on the outrageous non-fumble call at the end of the Denver -San Diego game.

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/10978909

The referee of the game, Ed Hochuli, is widely respected as the best in the league. In a poll of NFL head coaches last year for the best referee, he tied with Mike Carey with the most votes. Most of us know Hochuli as the referee who provides clear and thorough explanations of the play calls, and prior to Sunday as someone who seldom blew calls.

Houchili is also head of the NFL Referees Association, which negotiated a sizable pay increase for referees back in 2001. Maybe Jerry was slamming Houchili for negotiating a better deal? Why else would he publicly slam such a respected figure?

Given some of the crazy calls and non-calls last night, maybe Jerry should have kept his mouth shut.

Points Per Pass Metric, Final 2007 Results (All QBs)

kindablue — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 19:11:19 -0000

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks. The only difference is this diary gives the values of all QBs who threw at least one pass this season, organized into three groups, based on the number of attempts:

Those with at least 160 attempts;
Those with less than 160, but at least 30 attempts; and
Those with less than 30 attempts.

As I predicted, Romo fell short of his value of last season, but nonetheless had a very strong year. That he is a franchise-caliber NFL quarterback should be plainly obvious now to all but the most inveterate Cowboys haters. I'll have to do more digging into my database, but I believe the most similar quarterbacks to Romo bounced back with a better season at the age of 28, overcoming this strange slump that affects 27-year olds.

And check out Brad Johnson. Despite all the angst about his age, his limited appearance against Washington didn't turn out bad at all.

Other notes:

The league average value this season for quarterbacks was 0.370, the highest value since 2004. The league-wide benefits of passing have been rising for two straight years.
Tom Brady's season was the second greatest ever in my database, and was easily the highest value of his career.
Brett Favre narrowly missed setting the highest value of his career, which was set in his MVP season of 1995 with a 0.527 value. His value for this season was 0.526.
Similarly, Jeff Garcia has had several excellent seasons in his career, but now at the age of 37, he had his best season ever.
Does anyone now doubt Jack del Rio's decision to dump Byron Leftwich and hand the ball to David Garrard? He had played well before this season, but this year he was fantastic, and is a big reason why no one wants to play Jacksonville in the playoffs.
Peyton Manning had the lowest value since 2002, although all the injuries faced by the Colts certainly was a major contributor.
Reports of Donvan McNabb's demise appear to be greatly exaggerated. Despite looking shaky early and dealing with an offensive line that was at times porous, he turned in the third highest value of his career.
On the other hand, Eli Manning's career is in a tailspin. After improving to a respectable 0.39 in 2005, he declined to 0.31 last year, and this year sunk to a level that approaches a replacement level quarterback.
Jason Campbell declined slightly from his solid season last year, but I would not write him off just yet. He's still young, and I expect good things from him in the future.
Phillip Rivers also declined, from his excellent season last year. In the long run, I still think the Chargers made the right decision in letting Brees go, but in any event it will be fun to watch how things play out for these two QBs over the next several years.
Ben Roethlisberger bounced back nicely from his nighmarish 2006 season. It wasn't at the same level as his fantastic 2005 value, but was plenty good, and bodes well for the Steelers' future.
For those who recall his value early in the year, Drew Brees made a remarkable comeback, nearly finishing in the top ten. His career has been strangely predictable, alternating good years with no-so-good years, and this was the down year in the cycle. I fully expect him to bounce back with a strong season next year.
Respect is due for Kurt Warner. It looked like he was totally washed up after the 2003 season, but since he's left the Rams, he's turned in four straight above-average seasons. Now that Garrard is a starter at Jacksonville, I think he is the best backup QB in the league.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

With that in mind, I created the points per pass metric, which calculates the effectiveness of quarterbacks. The above two coefficients are used to determine, on average, how many points a quarterback (and his offensive teammates, since everyone else contributes to his success or failure) creates with each passing attempt. It takes the simple yards per attempt metric we're all familiar with, adjusts it for sacks, and further adjusts it for turnovers. One interception equates to minus six points; one fumble equates to minus three points. I treat fumbles as half a turnover, since there's essentially a 50/50 chance of recovering or losing a fumble. The results will probably be unsurprising for the most part, but sometimes they can appear odd. One of the things that may cause these oddities are fumbles. Most people, when looking over a QB's stat line, don't think about fumbles; they just look at yardage, attempts, touchdowns, interceptions, and maybe sacks. But fumbles are very important, since they are essentially half a turnover.

Quarterbacks with at least 160 attempts:
Brady, NE 0.67
Garrard, Jax 0.62
Garcia, TB 0.57
Manning, Ind 0.54
Favre, GB 0.53
Romo, Dal 0.48
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.47
McNabb, Phi 0.47
Palmer, Cin 0.45
Schaub, Hou 0.45
Brees, NO 0.44
Anderson, Cle 0.44
Cutler, Den 0.44
Roethlisberger, Pit 0.42
Harrington, Atl 0.41
Warner, Ari 0.40
Rivers, SD 0.36
Campbell, Was 0.35
Kitna, Det 0.34
Edwards, Buf 0.33
Rosenfels, Hou 0.32
Pennington, NYJ 0.31
Losman, Buf 0.31
Lemon, Mia 0.31
Jackson, Min 0.31
Culpepper, Oak 0.30
Huard, KC 0.30
Griese, Chi 0.28
Boller, Bal 0.28
Manning, NYG 0.28
Croyle, KC 0.27
Young, Ten 0.26
McNair, Bal 0.25
Testaverde, Car 0.25
Bulger, StL 0.25
Grossman, Chi 0.25
Clements, NYJ 0.24
Smith, SF 0.18
Frerotte, StL 0.08
McCown, Oak 0.03
Dilfer, SF 0.01

Quarterbacks with between 159 and 30 attempts:
Collins, Was 0.64
Delhomme, Car 0.54
Collins, Ten 0.53
Bollinger, Min 0.46
Redman, Atl 0.42
Smith, Bal 0.42
McCown, TB 0.41
Hill, SF 0.38
Gray, Jax 0.36
Holcomb, Min 0.36
Orton, Chi 0.35
Leinart, Ari 0.33
Sorgi, Ind 0.31
Green, Mia 0.31
Moore, Car 0.28
Ramsey, Den 0.25
Carr, Car 0.16
Feeley, Phi 0.15
Batch, Pit 0.14
Beck, Mia 0.09
Russell, Oak -0.04
Leftwich, Jax -0.09

Quarterbacks with less than 30 attempts:
Gutierrez, NE 1.50
Rogers, GB 0.63
Johnson, Dal 0.58
Quinn, Cle 0.56
Walter, Oak 0.48
Wallace, Sea 0.36
Weinke, SF 0.27
Lorenzen, NYG 0.26
Gradkowski, TB 0.22
Wright, NYG 0.17
Berlin, StL 0.12
Nall, GB 0.11
O'Sullivan, Det -0.19
Rattay, Ari -0.28
Frye, Cle -0.38
Thigpen, KC -0.40
Cassel, NE -0.74
Volek, SD -0.76

Points Per Pass Metric, Results Through Week 16

kindablue — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 21:36:14 -0000

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks. The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 160 pass attempts.

History continued to shadow both Brady and Romo with their performances last week, virtually eliminating their quests to overcome major historical hurdles. Brady's value continues to free fall. As late as last week, he looked to have a reasonable shot in overtaking Peyton Manning's 2004 season as the best ever of 0.73. After last week, it's just a dream.

Similarly, Romo will almost certainly not improve on his value from last season. I've mentioned my system predicted him to decline this year so many times that the details don't need to be repeated. What I did do was run a hypothetical game next week, and see what kind of game would be needed to eclipse his 2006 value of 0.508. Assuming he only plays the first half of tomorrow's game, and attempts half his average number of passes per game (17), he would need to throw for 187 yards with no sacks, interceptions or fumbles to do it. That's an improbable 11 yards per attempt, with no mistakes to counteract it...it's not going to happen.

Interestingly, as Indianapolis is getting healthy, Peyton's value continues to climb, now back up to fourth place. His game against San Diego was a major setback, but he and the Colts are rolling now.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Brady, NE 0.66
Garrard, Jax 0.62
Garcia, TB 0.57
Manning, Ind 0.54
Favre, GB 0.52
Romo, Dal 0.49
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.47
Brees, NO 0.47
McNabb, Phi 0.45
Schaub, Hou 0.45
Anderson, Cle 0.44
Cutler, Den 0.43
Palmer, Cin 0.43
Roethlisberger, Pit 0.42
Harrington, Atl 0.41
Warner, Ari 0.40
Rivers, SD 0.36
Campbell, Was 0.35
Kitna, Det 0.34
Rosenfels, Hou 0.32
Edwards, Buf 0.32
Pennington, NYJ 0.31
Losman, Buf 0.31
Jackson, Min 0.31
Culpepper, Oak 0.30
Huard, KC 0.30
Lemon, Mia 0.30
Griese, Chi 0.28
Boller, Bal 0.28
Manning, NYG 0.26
Bulger, StL 0.26
McNair, Bal 0.25
Testaverde, Car 0.25
Croyle, KC 0.25
Grossman, Chi 0.25
Young, Ten 0.24
Clements, NYJ 0.23
Smith, SF 0.18
Frerotte, StL 0.12
McCown, Oak 0.03
Dilfer, SF 0.01

Points Per Pass Metric, Results Through Week 15

kindablue — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 21:43:03 -0000

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks. The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 150 pass attempts.

History finally caught up with the golden boys last week. Tom Brady had been putting up number of historic proportions, until the game against the Eagles, and his value has steadily declined since. With his game against the Jets last week, his value finally slipped below Peyton Manning's 2004 season, which to date stands as the greatest in my database. Similarly, Romo had been able to outperform his score from last year, which stood in stark contrast to other historically similar quarterbacks in my database. To summarize my research, which has been mentioned here a couple of times before, last year Romo was 26 years old and recorded an impressive value of 0.508. I compared that value against other quarterbacks in my database, when they were 26 years old. I was pleasantly surprised to find him in exclusive company: Quarterbacks who were in the Hall of Fame, strong candidates for the Hall, or frequent visitors to the Pro Bowl. That convinced me, with very few reservations, that Romo was the real deal. That was the good news, that our long search for a franchise quarterback was almost certainly over.

There was some bad news, though. Rather than showing progress after their seasons as 26-year olds, all these excellent quarterbacks declined the following year. So far, Romo had been able to stay above his value from last year, until now. His stinker against Philadelphia announced loudly that you can run from history, but you can't hide. Romo is now at 0.497, and will need two good games to finish above his score last year.

While his recent performance is obviously not good news for us Cowboys fans, I'm feeling confident about how relevant my system is. It's a simple system, accessible to anyone who cares to perform a few simple calculations on a spreadsheet, and at least based on my research into Romo, quite robust. I challenge anyone else to present a system that has both these characteristics.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Brady, NE 0.70
Garrard, Jax 0.61
Garcia, TB 0.56
Favre, GB 0.55
Manning, Ind 0.51
Romo, Dal 0.50
Anderson, Cle 0.49
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.48
Cutler, Den 0.48
Brees, NO 0.47
McNabb, Phi 0.45
Schaub, Hou 0.45
Palmer, Cin 0.45
Edwards, Buf 0.41
Harrington, Atl 0.41
Roethlisberger, Pit 0.39
Warner, Ari 0.36
Rosenfels, Hou 0.36
Campbell, Was 0.35
Kitna, Det 0.35
Pennington, NYJ 0.34
Rivers, SD 0.34
Jackson, Min 0.33
Losman, Buf 0.31
Manning, NYG 0.31
Culpepper, Oak 0.30
Lemon, Mia 0.30
Griese, Chi 0.28
Boller, Bal 0.28
Bulger, StL 0.27
Huard, KC 0.26
Croyle, KC 0.26
Young, Ten 0.25
McNair, Bal 0.25
Testaverde, Car 0.25
Grossman, Chi 0.25
Clements, NYJ 0.23
Smith, SF 0.18
Frerotte, StL 0.10
McCown, Oak 0.03
Dilfer, SF 0.01

Points Per Pass Metric, Results Through Week 14

kindablue — Wed, 12 Dec 2007 00:35:01 -0000

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks. The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 140 pass attempts.

Romo and Favre again switched positions this week, but are still interchangeable. Peyton Manning's game against Jacksonville pushed him all the way up to sixth place, and Warner's five interceptions caused his his high value early in the season to tumble.

One of the things I'd like to do, if I had the time, is check the performance of QBs at certain venues. One of the first I would look into would be Dallas QBs in Detroit. I've called it our Temple of Doom, with bizarre losses there ever since the Lions moved indoors in 1976. We've lost games there in 1981, 1985, 1987, 2001 and 2002 when we had significantly better teams than Detroit; and were blown out there twice in 1991 (including the divisional playoffs) when our record was about as good theirs'. Before Sunday, we had won there three times since 1976, and all three were blowouts, with margins of victory of 24, 34 and 31 points. Before Sunday, our road games against Detroit followed one of two distinct paths. Either we jumped on the Lions with a couple of early scores, got them and the crowd discouraged, and cruised to an easy victory; or, as was usually the case, they won a tense nail-biter (the two 1991 games are in class by themselves, as the we were almost as good as them...so of course Detroit blew us out both times). In particular, I recall time and again how crowd noise would lead to false starts...and to avoid the penalties, our offensive line was slow to get off the snap, which gave the Lions a strong pass rush...with sacks, fumbles and interceptions not far behind. Yesterday was different. Our defense fell to pieces, as it often does there, but the offense rallied and was able to largely avoid turnovers.

I have no idea why the Lions play like world beaters against us so often, but I've seen it so often that Sunday's game was almost expected. The only thing that surprised me was the outcome, as we finally won a close one there, and now actually have a two game winning streak there. Is the Curse of the Temple broken forever? Let's hope so; nothing has been more frustrating for me over the years than to watch an inferior Detroit team beat us time after time.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Brady, NE 0.72
Garrard, Jax 0.64
Garcia, TB 0.60
Favre, GB 0.56
Romo, Dal 0.55
Manning, Ind 0.52
Schaub, Hou 0.51
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.49
Anderson, Cle 0.49
Cutler, Den 0.47
McNabb, Phi 0.46
Brees, NO 0.44
Palmer, Cin 0.43
Edwards, Buf 0.41
Harrington, Atl 0.41
Roethlisberger, Pit 0.40
Kitna, Det 0.38
Warner, Ari 0.37
Jackson, Min 0.37
Pennington, NYJ 0.36
Campbell, Was 0.35
Rivers, SD 0.32
Manning, NYG 0.31
Losman, Buf 0.31
Green, Mia 0.31
Culpepper, Oak 0.30
Bulger, StL 0.29
Griese, Chi 0.28
Clements, NYJ 0.28
Boller, Bal 0.27
Huard, KC 0.26
McNair, Bal 0.25
Testaverde, Car 0.25
Grossman, Chi 0.25
Lemon, Mia 0.24
Young, Ten 0.22
Smith, SF 0.18
Frerotte, StL 0.10
Dilfer, SF 0.01
McCown, Oak 0.00

Points Per Pass Metric, Results Through Week 13

kindablue — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 00:37:51 -0000

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks. The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 130 pass attempts.

Our man Tony Romo switched places with Favre after last week's game. They've been mirror images of each other the last few weeks, having nearly (and eerily) identical scores; last week Favre jumped ahead slightly, but after last week's head-to-head matchup, Romo pulled ahead--and would have been even higher were it not for Owens' bizarre endzone lateral to Al Harris for an interception.

While watching Monday night, Brady's mediocre game confirmed what I had suspected all along--that his level of performance is simply not sustainable. Quite unlike his mythological reputation as the most clutch QB ever, his points per pass metric have been decent, but really nothing exceptional prior to this season, with the exception of 2005. He has shown steady progress throughout his career, although last year was a setback, but I'm not sure he's all that much better than previous years. What has changed this year is his receiving corps. He had better hope that Moss and Stallworth, who have a history of being plagued with injuries, stay healthy throughout the playoffs, otherwise the Patriots could find themselves in the embarrassing situation of going undefeated in the regular season and losing in the playoffs.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Brady, NE 0.76
Garrard, Jax 0.64
Garcia, TB 0.60
Romo, Dal 0.56
Favre, GB 0.55
Schaub, Hou 0.51
Anderson, Cle 0.49
Manning, Ind 0.48
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.47
McNabb, Phi 0.46
Cutler, Den 0.44
Palmer, Cin 0.44
Warner, Ari 0.43
Brees, NO 0.41
Harrington, Atl 0.41
Edwards, Buf 0.37
Roethlisberger, Pit 0.37
Kitna, Det 0.36
Pennington, NYJ 0.36
Campbell, Was 0.35
Rivers, SD 0.34
Boller, Bal 0.33
Jackson, Min 0.33
Losman, Buf 0.31
Green, Mia 0.31
Lemon, Mia 0.31
Culpepper, Oak 0.30
Manning, NYG 0.29
Bulger, StL 0.29
Testaverde, Car 0.29
Griese, Chi 0.27
Huard, KC 0.26
McNair, Bal 0.25
Clements, NYJ 0.25
Grossman, Chi 0.25
Young, Ten 0.24
Smith, SF 0.18
Carr, Car 0.16
Frerotte, StL 0.10
Dilfer, SF 0.03
McCown, Oak 0.01

Points Per Pass Metric, Results Through Week 11

kindablue — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 22:10:05 -0000

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks. The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 80 pass attempts.

After last week's impressive connections with Terrell Owens, Romo's value finally separated from Favre. For the last three weeks, their values had been virtually identical. Speaking of separation, Tom Brady continues to pull away from the second highest-rated QB. If he maintains this pace for the remainder of the year, he'll surpass Peyton Manning's 2004 season (0.73) as the best season in my database. And speaking of Manning, we're discovering that as great a quarterback as he is, he's dependent on his teammates around him. Injuries to the offensive line and receivers have definitely limited his effectiveness the last couple of weeks. And despite the hand-wringing over what Campbell did to our defense last week, his value hardly moved. He piled up a ton of yards, only threw one pick and was only sacked once; but needed close to 60 attempts to get there. His yards per attempt weren't particularly good last week, and that's the engine that drives the success of a passing game.

Bring on the Jets. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Brady, NE 0.76
Garrard, Jax 0.64
Garcia, TB 0.61
Romo, Dal 0.57
Favre, GB 0.55
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.52
Anderson, Cle 0.51
Schaub, Hou 0.47
Manning, Ind 0.46
McNabb, Phi 0.46
Harrington, Atl 0.46
Cutler, Den 0.45
Palmer, Cin 0.44
Roethlisberger, Pit 0.44
Warner, Ari 0.43
Brees, NO 0.39
Kitna, Det 0.38
Campbell, Was 0.37
Losman, Buf 0.36
Pennington, NYJ 0.36
Manning, NYG 0.35
Leinart, Ari 0.33
Boller, Bal 0.33
Testaverde, Car 0.32
Bulger, StL 0.32
Green, Mia 0.31
Lemon, Mia 0.31
Rivers, SD 0.30
Edwards, Buf 0.30
Huard, KC 0.30
Griese, Chi 0.27
Culpepper, Oak 0.26
Jackson, Min 0.25
McNair, Bal 0.25
Clements, NYJ 0.25
Carr, Car 0.21
Grossman, Chi 0.19
Young, Ten 0.18
Smith, SF 0.18
Dilfer, SF -0.02
McCown, Oak -0.08

Points Per Pass Metric, Results Through Week Ten

kindablue — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 22:26:42 -0000

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks. The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 90 pass attempts.

After crunching the numbers, sorting them, and giving them one final look-over, I wondered what sort of mistake I made. Peyton Manning was ranked second last week, and I know he had that atrocious game, but I kept looking further and further down the list and couldn't find him. After locating him down at the tenth spot, I went back and double-checked my numbers. There's no math error, folks; Peyton took a serious tumble. Six picks and a poor yards per pass value can wreck even a legend's passing numbers.

Our main man Romo benefitted by moving up into fourth place; while the other Manning saw his value dip after playing against a clearly improving Dallas defense.

We are facing another QB this week whose value lies in the middle of the pack. With the Redkins injuries starting to pile up in their secondary, Tony could be in for another big week.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Brady, NE 0.73
Garrard, Jax 0.61
Garcia, TB 0.60
Romo, Dal 0.55
Favre, GB 0.55
Anderson, Cle 0.51
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.50
McNabb, Phi 0.50
Palmer, Cin 0.49
Manning, Ind 0.49
Roethlisberger, Pit 0.48
Harrington, Atl 0.45
Cutler, Den 0.42
Schaub, Hou 0.41
Brees, NO 0.41
Losman, Buf 0.40
Warner, Ari 0.40
Kitna, Det 0.39
Boller, Bal 0.38
Pennington, NYJ 0.36
Campbell, Was 0.35
Leinart, Ari 0.33
Bulger, StL 0.32
Manning, NYG 0.31
Green, Mia 0.31
Lemon, Mia 0.31
Edwards, Buf 0.30
Huard, KC 0.30
Rivers, SD 0.27
Griese, Chi 0.27
McNair, Bal 0.25
Clements, NYJ 0.25
Jackson, Min 0.25
Carr, Car 0.21
Culpepper, Oak 0.21
Smith, SF 0.18
Young, Ten 0.14
Grossman, Chi 0.08
McCown, Oak -0.08