SB Nation User Blog: kindablue

Jerry Jones: Hochuli a "Highly Criticized Official"

kindablue — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 13:36:43 -0000

It's rare to have anyone in the league openly criticize an NFL official, but Jerry Jones did just that when commenting on the outrageous non-fumble call at the end of the Denver -San Diego game.

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/10978909

The referee of the game, Ed Hochuli, is widely respected as the best in the league. In a poll of NFL head coaches last year for the best referee, he tied with Mike Carey with the most votes. Most of us know Hochuli as the referee who provides clear and thorough explanations of the play calls, and prior to Sunday as someone who seldom blew calls.

Houchili is also head of the NFL Referees Association, which negotiated a sizable pay increase for referees back in 2001. Maybe Jerry was slamming Houchili for negotiating a better deal? Why else would he publicly slam such a respected figure?

Given some of the crazy calls and non-calls last night, maybe Jerry should have kept his mouth shut.

Points Per Pass Metric, Final 2007 Results (All QBs)

kindablue — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 19:11:19 -0000

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks. The only difference is this diary gives the values of all QBs who threw at least one pass this season, organized into three groups, based on the number of attempts:

Those with at least 160 attempts;
Those with less than 160, but at least 30 attempts; and
Those with less than 30 attempts.

As I predicted, Romo fell short of his value of last season, but nonetheless had a very strong year. That he is a franchise-caliber NFL quarterback should be plainly obvious now to all but the most inveterate Cowboys haters. I'll have to do more digging into my database, but I believe the most similar quarterbacks to Romo bounced back with a better season at the age of 28, overcoming this strange slump that affects 27-year olds.

And check out Brad Johnson. Despite all the angst about his age, his limited appearance against Washington didn't turn out bad at all.

Other notes:

The league average value this season for quarterbacks was 0.370, the highest value since 2004. The league-wide benefits of passing have been rising for two straight years.
Tom Brady's season was the second greatest ever in my database, and was easily the highest value of his career.
Brett Favre narrowly missed setting the highest value of his career, which was set in his MVP season of 1995 with a 0.527 value. His value for this season was 0.526.
Similarly, Jeff Garcia has had several excellent seasons in his career, but now at the age of 37, he had his best season ever.
Does anyone now doubt Jack del Rio's decision to dump Byron Leftwich and hand the ball to David Garrard? He had played well before this season, but this year he was fantastic, and is a big reason why no one wants to play Jacksonville in the playoffs.
Peyton Manning had the lowest value since 2002, although all the injuries faced by the Colts certainly was a major contributor.
Reports of Donvan McNabb's demise appear to be greatly exaggerated. Despite looking shaky early and dealing with an offensive line that was at times porous, he turned in the third highest value of his career.
On the other hand, Eli Manning's career is in a tailspin. After improving to a respectable 0.39 in 2005, he declined to 0.31 last year, and this year sunk to a level that approaches a replacement level quarterback.
Jason Campbell declined slightly from his solid season last year, but I would not write him off just yet. He's still young, and I expect good things from him in the future.
Phillip Rivers also declined, from his excellent season last year. In the long run, I still think the Chargers made the right decision in letting Brees go, but in any event it will be fun to watch how things play out for these two QBs over the next several years.
Ben Roethlisberger bounced back nicely from his nighmarish 2006 season. It wasn't at the same level as his fantastic 2005 value, but was plenty good, and bodes well for the Steelers' future.
For those who recall his value early in the year, Drew Brees made a remarkable comeback, nearly finishing in the top ten. His career has been strangely predictable, alternating good years with no-so-good years, and this was the down year in the cycle. I fully expect him to bounce back with a strong season next year.
Respect is due for Kurt Warner. It looked like he was totally washed up after the 2003 season, but since he's left the Rams, he's turned in four straight above-average seasons. Now that Garrard is a starter at Jacksonville, I think he is the best backup QB in the league.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

I've been using a passing offense metric for many years now to gauge how well a QB is doing. Inspired by baseball SABRmetrician Bill James, I performed linear regressions of NFL statistics and concluded from a big picture point of view, only two statistics mattered: Yards gained from scrimmage, and turnovers. The best fit to matching points scored came when assuming the following coefficients:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Simply put, teams that score points rack up yardage and don't commit turnovers. Note how powerful turnovers are: A team can, for example, gain 55 yards of offense, but if they turn it over the next play, they actually ended up hurting their team.

With that in mind, I created the points per pass metric, which calculates the effectiveness of quarterbacks. The above two coefficients are used to determine, on average, how many points a quarterback (and his offensive teammates, since everyone else contributes to his success or failure) creates with each passing attempt. It takes the simple yards per attempt metric we're all familiar with, adjusts it for sacks, and further adjusts it for turnovers. One interception equates to minus six points; one fumble equates to minus three points. I treat fumbles as half a turnover, since there's essentially a 50/50 chance of recovering or losing a fumble. The results will probably be unsurprising for the most part, but sometimes they can appear odd. One of the things that may cause these oddities are fumbles. Most people, when looking over a QB's stat line, don't think about fumbles; they just look at yardage, attempts, touchdowns, interceptions, and maybe sacks. But fumbles are very important, since they are essentially half a turnover.

Quarterbacks with at least 160 attempts:
Brady, NE 0.67
Garrard, Jax 0.62
Garcia, TB 0.57
Manning, Ind 0.54
Favre, GB 0.53
Romo, Dal 0.48
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.47
McNabb, Phi 0.47
Palmer, Cin 0.45
Schaub, Hou 0.45
Brees, NO 0.44
Anderson, Cle 0.44
Cutler, Den 0.44
Roethlisberger, Pit 0.42
Harrington, Atl 0.41
Warner, Ari 0.40
Rivers, SD 0.36
Campbell, Was 0.35
Kitna, Det 0.34
Edwards, Buf 0.33
Rosenfels, Hou 0.32
Pennington, NYJ 0.31
Losman, Buf 0.31
Lemon, Mia 0.31
Jackson, Min 0.31
Culpepper, Oak 0.30
Huard, KC 0.30
Griese, Chi 0.28
Boller, Bal 0.28
Manning, NYG 0.28
Croyle, KC 0.27
Young, Ten 0.26
McNair, Bal 0.25
Testaverde, Car 0.25
Bulger, StL 0.25
Grossman, Chi 0.25
Clements, NYJ 0.24
Smith, SF 0.18
Frerotte, StL 0.08
McCown, Oak 0.03
Dilfer, SF 0.01

Quarterbacks with between 159 and 30 attempts:
Collins, Was 0.64
Delhomme, Car 0.54
Collins, Ten 0.53
Bollinger, Min 0.46
Redman, Atl 0.42
Smith, Bal 0.42
McCown, TB 0.41
Hill, SF 0.38
Gray, Jax 0.36
Holcomb, Min 0.36
Orton, Chi 0.35
Leinart, Ari 0.33
Sorgi, Ind 0.31
Green, Mia 0.31
Moore, Car 0.28
Ramsey, Den 0.25
Carr, Car 0.16
Feeley, Phi 0.15
Batch, Pit 0.14
Beck, Mia 0.09
Russell, Oak -0.04
Leftwich, Jax -0.09

Quarterbacks with less than 30 attempts:
Gutierrez, NE 1.50
Rogers, GB 0.63
Johnson, Dal 0.58
Quinn, Cle 0.56
Walter, Oak 0.48
Wallace, Sea 0.36
Weinke, SF 0.27
Lorenzen, NYG 0.26
Gradkowski, TB 0.22
Wright, NYG 0.17
Berlin, StL 0.12
Nall, GB 0.11
O'Sullivan, Det -0.19
Rattay, Ari -0.28
Frye, Cle -0.38
Thigpen, KC -0.40
Cassel, NE -0.74
Volek, SD -0.76

Points Per Pass Metric, Results Through Week 16

kindablue — Sat, 29 Dec 2007 21:36:14 -0000

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks. The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 160 pass attempts.

History continued to shadow both Brady and Romo with their performances last week, virtually eliminating their quests to overcome major historical hurdles. Brady's value continues to free fall. As late as last week, he looked to have a reasonable shot in overtaking Peyton Manning's 2004 season as the best ever of 0.73. After last week, it's just a dream.

Similarly, Romo will almost certainly not improve on his value from last season. I've mentioned my system predicted him to decline this year so many times that the details don't need to be repeated. What I did do was run a hypothetical game next week, and see what kind of game would be needed to eclipse his 2006 value of 0.508. Assuming he only plays the first half of tomorrow's game, and attempts half his average number of passes per game (17), he would need to throw for 187 yards with no sacks, interceptions or fumbles to do it. That's an improbable 11 yards per attempt, with no mistakes to counteract it...it's not going to happen.

Interestingly, as Indianapolis is getting healthy, Peyton's value continues to climb, now back up to fourth place. His game against San Diego was a major setback, but he and the Colts are rolling now.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Brady, NE 0.66
Garrard, Jax 0.62
Garcia, TB 0.57
Manning, Ind 0.54
Favre, GB 0.52
Romo, Dal 0.49
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.47
Brees, NO 0.47
McNabb, Phi 0.45
Schaub, Hou 0.45
Anderson, Cle 0.44
Cutler, Den 0.43
Palmer, Cin 0.43
Roethlisberger, Pit 0.42
Harrington, Atl 0.41
Warner, Ari 0.40
Rivers, SD 0.36
Campbell, Was 0.35
Kitna, Det 0.34
Rosenfels, Hou 0.32
Edwards, Buf 0.32
Pennington, NYJ 0.31
Losman, Buf 0.31
Jackson, Min 0.31
Culpepper, Oak 0.30
Huard, KC 0.30
Lemon, Mia 0.30
Griese, Chi 0.28
Boller, Bal 0.28
Manning, NYG 0.26
Bulger, StL 0.26
McNair, Bal 0.25
Testaverde, Car 0.25
Croyle, KC 0.25
Grossman, Chi 0.25
Young, Ten 0.24
Clements, NYJ 0.23
Smith, SF 0.18
Frerotte, StL 0.12
McCown, Oak 0.03
Dilfer, SF 0.01

Points Per Pass Metric, Results Through Week 15

kindablue — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 21:43:03 -0000

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks. The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 150 pass attempts.

History finally caught up with the golden boys last week. Tom Brady had been putting up number of historic proportions, until the game against the Eagles, and his value has steadily declined since. With his game against the Jets last week, his value finally slipped below Peyton Manning's 2004 season, which to date stands as the greatest in my database. Similarly, Romo had been able to outperform his score from last year, which stood in stark contrast to other historically similar quarterbacks in my database. To summarize my research, which has been mentioned here a couple of times before, last year Romo was 26 years old and recorded an impressive value of 0.508. I compared that value against other quarterbacks in my database, when they were 26 years old. I was pleasantly surprised to find him in exclusive company: Quarterbacks who were in the Hall of Fame, strong candidates for the Hall, or frequent visitors to the Pro Bowl. That convinced me, with very few reservations, that Romo was the real deal. That was the good news, that our long search for a franchise quarterback was almost certainly over.

There was some bad news, though. Rather than showing progress after their seasons as 26-year olds, all these excellent quarterbacks declined the following year. So far, Romo had been able to stay above his value from last year, until now. His stinker against Philadelphia announced loudly that you can run from history, but you can't hide. Romo is now at 0.497, and will need two good games to finish above his score last year.

While his recent performance is obviously not good news for us Cowboys fans, I'm feeling confident about how relevant my system is. It's a simple system, accessible to anyone who cares to perform a few simple calculations on a spreadsheet, and at least based on my research into Romo, quite robust. I challenge anyone else to present a system that has both these characteristics.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Brady, NE 0.70
Garrard, Jax 0.61
Garcia, TB 0.56
Favre, GB 0.55
Manning, Ind 0.51
Romo, Dal 0.50
Anderson, Cle 0.49
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.48
Cutler, Den 0.48
Brees, NO 0.47
McNabb, Phi 0.45
Schaub, Hou 0.45
Palmer, Cin 0.45
Edwards, Buf 0.41
Harrington, Atl 0.41
Roethlisberger, Pit 0.39
Warner, Ari 0.36
Rosenfels, Hou 0.36
Campbell, Was 0.35
Kitna, Det 0.35
Pennington, NYJ 0.34
Rivers, SD 0.34
Jackson, Min 0.33
Losman, Buf 0.31
Manning, NYG 0.31
Culpepper, Oak 0.30
Lemon, Mia 0.30
Griese, Chi 0.28
Boller, Bal 0.28
Bulger, StL 0.27
Huard, KC 0.26
Croyle, KC 0.26
Young, Ten 0.25
McNair, Bal 0.25
Testaverde, Car 0.25
Grossman, Chi 0.25
Clements, NYJ 0.23
Smith, SF 0.18
Frerotte, StL 0.10
McCown, Oak 0.03
Dilfer, SF 0.01

Points Per Pass Metric, Results Through Week 14

kindablue — Wed, 12 Dec 2007 00:35:01 -0000

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks. The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 140 pass attempts.

Romo and Favre again switched positions this week, but are still interchangeable. Peyton Manning's game against Jacksonville pushed him all the way up to sixth place, and Warner's five interceptions caused his his high value early in the season to tumble.

One of the things I'd like to do, if I had the time, is check the performance of QBs at certain venues. One of the first I would look into would be Dallas QBs in Detroit. I've called it our Temple of Doom, with bizarre losses there ever since the Lions moved indoors in 1976. We've lost games there in 1981, 1985, 1987, 2001 and 2002 when we had significantly better teams than Detroit; and were blown out there twice in 1991 (including the divisional playoffs) when our record was about as good theirs'. Before Sunday, we had won there three times since 1976, and all three were blowouts, with margins of victory of 24, 34 and 31 points. Before Sunday, our road games against Detroit followed one of two distinct paths. Either we jumped on the Lions with a couple of early scores, got them and the crowd discouraged, and cruised to an easy victory; or, as was usually the case, they won a tense nail-biter (the two 1991 games are in class by themselves, as the we were almost as good as them...so of course Detroit blew us out both times). In particular, I recall time and again how crowd noise would lead to false starts...and to avoid the penalties, our offensive line was slow to get off the snap, which gave the Lions a strong pass rush...with sacks, fumbles and interceptions not far behind. Yesterday was different. Our defense fell to pieces, as it often does there, but the offense rallied and was able to largely avoid turnovers.

I have no idea why the Lions play like world beaters against us so often, but I've seen it so often that Sunday's game was almost expected. The only thing that surprised me was the outcome, as we finally won a close one there, and now actually have a two game winning streak there. Is the Curse of the Temple broken forever? Let's hope so; nothing has been more frustrating for me over the years than to watch an inferior Detroit team beat us time after time.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Brady, NE 0.72
Garrard, Jax 0.64
Garcia, TB 0.60
Favre, GB 0.56
Romo, Dal 0.55
Manning, Ind 0.52
Schaub, Hou 0.51
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.49
Anderson, Cle 0.49
Cutler, Den 0.47
McNabb, Phi 0.46
Brees, NO 0.44
Palmer, Cin 0.43
Edwards, Buf 0.41
Harrington, Atl 0.41
Roethlisberger, Pit 0.40
Kitna, Det 0.38
Warner, Ari 0.37
Jackson, Min 0.37
Pennington, NYJ 0.36
Campbell, Was 0.35
Rivers, SD 0.32
Manning, NYG 0.31
Losman, Buf 0.31
Green, Mia 0.31
Culpepper, Oak 0.30
Bulger, StL 0.29
Griese, Chi 0.28
Clements, NYJ 0.28
Boller, Bal 0.27
Huard, KC 0.26
McNair, Bal 0.25
Testaverde, Car 0.25
Grossman, Chi 0.25
Lemon, Mia 0.24
Young, Ten 0.22
Smith, SF 0.18
Frerotte, StL 0.10
Dilfer, SF 0.01
McCown, Oak 0.00

Points Per Pass Metric, Results Through Week 13

kindablue — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 00:37:51 -0000

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks. The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 130 pass attempts.

Our man Tony Romo switched places with Favre after last week's game. They've been mirror images of each other the last few weeks, having nearly (and eerily) identical scores; last week Favre jumped ahead slightly, but after last week's head-to-head matchup, Romo pulled ahead--and would have been even higher were it not for Owens' bizarre endzone lateral to Al Harris for an interception.

While watching Monday night, Brady's mediocre game confirmed what I had suspected all along--that his level of performance is simply not sustainable. Quite unlike his mythological reputation as the most clutch QB ever, his points per pass metric have been decent, but really nothing exceptional prior to this season, with the exception of 2005. He has shown steady progress throughout his career, although last year was a setback, but I'm not sure he's all that much better than previous years. What has changed this year is his receiving corps. He had better hope that Moss and Stallworth, who have a history of being plagued with injuries, stay healthy throughout the playoffs, otherwise the Patriots could find themselves in the embarrassing situation of going undefeated in the regular season and losing in the playoffs.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Brady, NE 0.76
Garrard, Jax 0.64
Garcia, TB 0.60
Romo, Dal 0.56
Favre, GB 0.55
Schaub, Hou 0.51
Anderson, Cle 0.49
Manning, Ind 0.48
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.47
McNabb, Phi 0.46
Cutler, Den 0.44
Palmer, Cin 0.44
Warner, Ari 0.43
Brees, NO 0.41
Harrington, Atl 0.41
Edwards, Buf 0.37
Roethlisberger, Pit 0.37
Kitna, Det 0.36
Pennington, NYJ 0.36
Campbell, Was 0.35
Rivers, SD 0.34
Boller, Bal 0.33
Jackson, Min 0.33
Losman, Buf 0.31
Green, Mia 0.31
Lemon, Mia 0.31
Culpepper, Oak 0.30
Manning, NYG 0.29
Bulger, StL 0.29
Testaverde, Car 0.29
Griese, Chi 0.27
Huard, KC 0.26
McNair, Bal 0.25
Clements, NYJ 0.25
Grossman, Chi 0.25
Young, Ten 0.24
Smith, SF 0.18
Carr, Car 0.16
Frerotte, StL 0.10
Dilfer, SF 0.03
McCown, Oak 0.01

Points Per Pass Metric, Results Through Week 11

kindablue — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 22:10:05 -0000

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks. The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 80 pass attempts.

After last week's impressive connections with Terrell Owens, Romo's value finally separated from Favre. For the last three weeks, their values had been virtually identical. Speaking of separation, Tom Brady continues to pull away from the second highest-rated QB. If he maintains this pace for the remainder of the year, he'll surpass Peyton Manning's 2004 season (0.73) as the best season in my database. And speaking of Manning, we're discovering that as great a quarterback as he is, he's dependent on his teammates around him. Injuries to the offensive line and receivers have definitely limited his effectiveness the last couple of weeks. And despite the hand-wringing over what Campbell did to our defense last week, his value hardly moved. He piled up a ton of yards, only threw one pick and was only sacked once; but needed close to 60 attempts to get there. His yards per attempt weren't particularly good last week, and that's the engine that drives the success of a passing game.

Bring on the Jets. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Brady, NE 0.76
Garrard, Jax 0.64
Garcia, TB 0.61
Romo, Dal 0.57
Favre, GB 0.55
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.52
Anderson, Cle 0.51
Schaub, Hou 0.47
Manning, Ind 0.46
McNabb, Phi 0.46
Harrington, Atl 0.46
Cutler, Den 0.45
Palmer, Cin 0.44
Roethlisberger, Pit 0.44
Warner, Ari 0.43
Brees, NO 0.39
Kitna, Det 0.38
Campbell, Was 0.37
Losman, Buf 0.36
Pennington, NYJ 0.36
Manning, NYG 0.35
Leinart, Ari 0.33
Boller, Bal 0.33
Testaverde, Car 0.32
Bulger, StL 0.32
Green, Mia 0.31
Lemon, Mia 0.31
Rivers, SD 0.30
Edwards, Buf 0.30
Huard, KC 0.30
Griese, Chi 0.27
Culpepper, Oak 0.26
Jackson, Min 0.25
McNair, Bal 0.25
Clements, NYJ 0.25
Carr, Car 0.21
Grossman, Chi 0.19
Young, Ten 0.18
Smith, SF 0.18
Dilfer, SF -0.02
McCown, Oak -0.08

Points Per Pass Metric, Results Through Week Ten

kindablue — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 22:26:42 -0000

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks. The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 90 pass attempts.

After crunching the numbers, sorting them, and giving them one final look-over, I wondered what sort of mistake I made. Peyton Manning was ranked second last week, and I know he had that atrocious game, but I kept looking further and further down the list and couldn't find him. After locating him down at the tenth spot, I went back and double-checked my numbers. There's no math error, folks; Peyton took a serious tumble. Six picks and a poor yards per pass value can wreck even a legend's passing numbers.

Our main man Romo benefitted by moving up into fourth place; while the other Manning saw his value dip after playing against a clearly improving Dallas defense.

We are facing another QB this week whose value lies in the middle of the pack. With the Redkins injuries starting to pile up in their secondary, Tony could be in for another big week.

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Brady, NE 0.73
Garrard, Jax 0.61
Garcia, TB 0.60
Romo, Dal 0.55
Favre, GB 0.55
Anderson, Cle 0.51
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.50
McNabb, Phi 0.50
Palmer, Cin 0.49
Manning, Ind 0.49
Roethlisberger, Pit 0.48
Harrington, Atl 0.45
Cutler, Den 0.42
Schaub, Hou 0.41
Brees, NO 0.41
Losman, Buf 0.40
Warner, Ari 0.40
Kitna, Det 0.39
Boller, Bal 0.38
Pennington, NYJ 0.36
Campbell, Was 0.35
Leinart, Ari 0.33
Bulger, StL 0.32
Manning, NYG 0.31
Green, Mia 0.31
Lemon, Mia 0.31
Edwards, Buf 0.30
Huard, KC 0.30
Rivers, SD 0.27
Griese, Chi 0.27
McNair, Bal 0.25
Clements, NYJ 0.25
Jackson, Min 0.25
Carr, Car 0.21
Culpepper, Oak 0.21
Smith, SF 0.18
Young, Ten 0.14
Grossman, Chi 0.08
McCown, Oak -0.08

Points Per Pass Metric, Results Through Week Nine

kindablue — Tue, 06 Nov 2007 16:50:47 -0000

My passing offense metric, updated with last week's results. See below an explanation of the statistical details: It's the same text I've posted in previous weeks. The only difference is the minimum cutoff for making the list is 90 pass attempts.

The list continues to pack in tighter towards the historical mean value of 0.35, although the cream is clearly rising to the top. Romo's game vaulted him past not only McNabb, but also Favre into fifth place. Good call by Terry on that one. I was genuinely concerned, based on the history and recent trends, that the Eagles defense would give Romo problems, but I am happy to admit I was wrong. The offensive line gave Romo time, and when blitzes came, Romo was able to ad lib for big gains (the two screen passes in the flat to Barber, the quick pass to Owens for the TD). When an offense can hold up against stunts and blitzes, and when the QB can recognize, react and get the ball to skill players while in stride, blitzes start to become a major liability, and we saw Jim Johnson's defense get embarrassed as a result. And contrary to the historical predictions, Romo continues to improve over last year's performance. I don't doubt in a few years that people will say Jerry Jones was able to sign him at a bargain price.

After week four, Drew Brees was an atrocious 0.12. After last week's rout against Jacksonville, he's moved above the league average. Not to pat myself on the back too much, but I predicted that several weeks ago.

Also, Delhomme dropped out of the top ten from last week, as he no longer has enough attempts to qualify.

I can't wait for this week's game against the Giants. Anybody else noticed how mediocre Eli Manning's number is? And the fact that we'll have a much healthier defense more familiar with the system this time around? That, coupled with the fact the Giants have gone 0-3 during week nine under Coughlin, is why I'm feeling so good about this game. His teams have always gotten off to fast starts, then faded down the stretch. It's happened like clockwork the last three years, and the fade usually starts in week nine. The Cowboys have had trouble in the Meadowlands in the past, but can the Giants beat the Cowboys to win their seventh straight game, the way Dallas is playing right now? If we avoid turnovers, it's pretty clear to me the answer is 'no'.

Is it Sunday yet?

Here's the intro I've posted on previous weeks:

Ten yards gained from scrimmage = +1.0 points; and
One turnover lost = -6.0 points.

Brady, NE 0.73
Manning, Ind 0.62
Garrard, Jax 0.61
Garcia, TB 0.60
Romo, Dal 0.56
Favre, GB 0.55
Anderson, Cle 0.53
Roethlisberger, Pit 0.49
Palmer, Cin 0.49
McNabb, Phi 0.48
Hasselbeck, Sea 0.48
Harrington, Atl 0.45
Kitna, Det 0.43
Brees, NO 0.43
Cutler, Den 0.42
Schaub, Hou 0.41
Warner, Ari 0.39
Boller, Bal 0.38
Pennington, NYJ 0.36
Rivers, SD 0.34
Huard, KC 0.34
Manning, NYG 0.34
Leinart, Ari 0.33
Campbell, Was 0.33
Green, Mia 0.31
Edwards, Buf 0.30
McNair, Bal 0.29
Lemon, Mia 0.28
Bulger, StL 0.27
Griese, Chi 0.26
Clements, NYJ 0.25
Jackson, Min 0.25
Carr, Car 0.21
Culpepper, Oak 0.21
Smith, SF 0.19
Young, Ten 0.13
McCown, Oak -0.09
Dilfer, SF -0.11

Cowboys-Eagles Matchup

kindablue — Thu, 01 Nov 2007 22:00:02 -0000

I'll try to stay out of the way of Grizz's preview of this week's matchup, by looking at a few stats and some history. Hopefully I won't step on his toes; he normally looks at different things than what I'm going to talk about, so I should be okay.

This Year's Matchup:

The current betting line has Dallas by three. Taking into account the normal home field advantage of about three points, the current betting equilibrium believes Dallas is six points better than the Eagles. What you should know is traditionally Dallas has an enthusiastic following in the betting world, and that has caused frequent overinflation of point spreads in the past.

The Sagarin ratings are a sound way of looking at how teams have performed relative to their competition in a given year. They take into account location, margin of victory and how well their opponents have done. It's not a perfect system, because it doesn't take into account all variables, and there's a fair amount of variance on the numbers, but it does give you a good overview of how teams are doing. Right now, Dallas is ranked as the third-best team in the NFL, with a value of 26.78. Even though Philadelphia is 3-4, they are ranked as the tenth best team, with a value of 22.60. When one takes the home field value of 3.22 points into account, that would mean, based on past performance, Dallas would be slightly more than a one-point favorite.

However...

The Sagarin ratings also take trends into account. Dallas is predicted to be holding about the same, as 26.70, but Philadelphia is forecasted to be significantly improving to 24.77. If one takes these trends into account, and gives the Eagles their 3.22 home field advantage, the Eagles would actually be favored by a little more than a point.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagar...

More food for thought. Dallas has been starting very slow, and finishing strong. The Eagles are the exact opposite, outscoring their opponents in the first half, but getting outscored in the second half. I think staying close will be important in the first half of this game.

The Eagles are a notoriously slow-starting, strong-finishing team. They were 5-6 last year, after the Colts annihilated them, and they looked like toast, but then won their final five, including in our house. We beat them in 2003 to improve our record to 4-1 and drop theirs to 2-3, but they won nine straight and finished 12-4.

Also, Andy Reid holds a 7-1 home record against Dallas since he's been the Eagles' head coach, and the only loss was that miraculous 21-20 come-from-behind victory two years ago. He's won three close games, including a meaningless 2004 contest after they had locked up NFC home field advantage, and four double-digit margins of victory. It's been a very tough place for Dallas to play this decade, and until we prove we can go into their house and dominate them, or even just play well, I think it's ill-advised to assume this will be an automatic victory, or worse, that we'll walk all over them.

They still have a very good team with an outstanding defense, and McNabb is just starting to get healthy. I see this as a dangerous game, probably the riskiest of the next three. I know we have much more firepower on offense, with a better offensive line, and an offensive coordinator who thinks on his feet. I know our defense is deeper, more athletic and better coached than any time in the last decade. This game still makes me the most nervous. If we win--I expect it to be a very intense, hard-fought game--but if we win, we will have for all intents and purposes consigned them to fighting for a wild card slot. Overcoming a four game lead with eight to play will be next to impossible, if we continue playing like we have. But if we lose, they will have climbed right back into the division race, and the ghosts of the last decade will start to reappear.

Okay, I don't want to make everyone nervous; I think we have a pretty good shot at winning this game, just because we're so much better than in years past. I just can't see us winning a 37-10 blowout, and if we win, I expect it to be close.