SB Nation User Blog: kitoko

Rudy Jaramillo needs a job!

kitoko — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 19:25:57 -0000

Rudy Jaramillo is unemployed! Bring him to Oakland, Billy!

Rudy Jaramillo, the long-time hitting coach for Ron Washington's Texas Rangers, has parted ways with the organization after rejecting a one-year contract offer. This story was repoted at espn.com, and hopefully this link will work...Anyway, he has hepled make good hitters great in Arlington for a long time. Perhaps he could make our mediocre hitters a little better in Oakland. We couldn't expect the kind of results produced by the Texas offense for the last 15 years, because we wouldn't be providing Jaramillo with as much talent to work with, but any improvement at all would be more than the team has displayed under Jim Skaalen. It's just too bad that it was just announced that Skaalen will be back next season...it's the GM's prerogative to change his mind, though, given the availability of an obviously better candidate. Who wouldn't love to see Carter, Wallace, Cardenas, and Donaldson resemble Texeira, Kinsler, Pudge, and Juan Gone in terms of production?

Hire this man, Billy! Bring him to Oakland!

Contending? Competing? Give me a break!

kitoko — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 19:42:19 -0000

While it has been fun for the fans and good for the youngsters' confidence to win 2 series on the road against good teams, everyone from the front office on down to the 7-year old kid in the stands (who, in 1973, was me, watching Catfish win the Cy Young) needs to step back and be realistic. This team IS NOT a contending team, it WAS NOT put together to be a contending team, and even in what could play out to be one of the weakest divisions in the history of MLB, the likelihood of our team contending is very slim. There are MANY VERY OBVIOUS REASONS why this is hard to ignore, and they are based around the three basic skills which in large part determine the outcome of individual games and thus entire seasons: pitching, hitting, and defense.

Our rotation has precisely one proven commodity--Joe Blanton. He is our ace, and he would be #3 in any TRUE contender's rotation. Behind him we have, well....the AAA callup of the week? Come on--we were all excited when Harden and Duke started off strong, because even a team that averages 2 runs a game can be dragged aloong by a stacked rotation. However, when they both went down (and honestly, was anyone surprised when they did?), that left the #2 spot to Gaudin. Gulp. Has he fully recovered yet? it sure doesn't look like it. Any production we get from Eveland and Smith is FANTASTIC and bodes well for the future, but their contributions are very unlikely to make us contenders now. Considering that Blanton will probably not be with us very much longer, the rotation, which has historically been an Oakland strong suit, looks shaky...and the bullpen, which has looked fairly OK so far, can only provide so many save opps to Street, thanks to our dismal offense, but of those provided, he will blow 25-30% (until Billy can find some sucker who believes he's better than that).

Our offense is absolutely horrendous. We have exactly one player (Ellis) who is above average offensively at his position, and he's just barely so. He's also a prime candidate to be playing somewhere else soon. When the sticks come up with one run on 5 hits for an evening's work, why are we all surprised and indignant? When you send up 9 guys who have practically no power and limited ability to even put wood on the ball, we are just really hoping the opposing pitcher is wild/ineffective that particular game. When you've got two guys in your lineup that couldn't even hang on with the KC Royals, that's not a good sign. Cust is showing why he is a career minor leaguer (ditto Hannahan/Murphy), and even promising players such as Buck and Barton have taken a step back. Suzuki and R. Sweeney have been bright spots, but we need a bigger "sample size" before we know whether they'll eventually be league-average (or, God forbid, above average) offensively. Only the Giants have a weaker offense than we do.

When the pitching is barely average and the offense is nonexistent, a team really needs great defense to stay in games and close out games it has a chance to win. The A's defense has been atrocious, and looking at the players involved, again only (possibly soon to be shipped) Ellis stands out as being really strong defensively. We are mediocre at best at all other positions, and downright weak at several. Barton and Crosby come immediately to mind as having struggled defensively so far.

Again, this early in the season, the sample sizes are too small to come to any definitive conclusion about where things are headed. However, those who are projecting us to be contenders based on 2 series may want to step back and have a look at the capabilities of the (non-perpetually injured) players on the roster before they reserve playoff tickets. BB has designed this as a rebuilding phase, and although early returns on the offseason trades are excellent and set us up for a bright future, the current edition of our Oakland A's falls way short of having enough ammo to contend in the stacked AL. To contend, players wearing the Green and Gold need to dramatically improve in 3 areas crucial for success in baseball--pitching, hitting, and fielding. This team could be fun to watch, but like all previous rebuilding phases (I've seen several since '73), there will be stretches of ugly play and bad results. We all just need to be patient and keep the faith....

Poll

How many games will the 2008 Oakland A's win?

less than 65

3 votes

65-74

9 votes

75-84

60 votes

85 or more

24 votes

96 votes | Poll has closed

Mets still pursuing Blanton...

kitoko — Sat, 05 Jan 2008 20:50:28 -0000

Again the NY Mets have reared their unsightly head in pursuit of Widebody #55. For one, I hope we do deal Blanton, although not necessarily to the Mets. All the names that have been thrown around in the rumor threads (Humber, Pelfrey, Heilman, Gomez, etc.) seem like AAAA players--marginal roster filler without the kind of upside that BB has targeted in the Haren and Swisher trades. Perhaps Gomez or their other OF prospect (Martinez?) have decent ML careers ahead of them, but aren't we pretty solid in the OF at this point? I don't know, I'm just not really sold on these names. I would much prefer if Beane raided the NYM system of players that are a little further out time-wise (B+ prospects who played A or AA ball last year) with big potential (a la Anderson or De Los Santos) than low-ceiling guys that might wear Green and Gold in '08 or '09. Perhaps Minaya would bite at a trade including the kind of package we got for Swish, because in the NY market he is under pressure to WIN--AND WIN NOW. He is apt to be less concerned about 19-year-old kids in A ball and more perhaps more likely to give them up...

I'm sure lots of AN'ers who are more informed and computer-savvy than I am have done some digging to unearth some names that Beane may be targeting in negotiations with Minaya. So cough 'em up, AN--who are the potential '10-'11 A's that are currently in the NYM system? Do they have any left-side-of-the-infield prospects that are being blocked in the organization by Wright & Reyes and thus may be available? What about RH starters (we seem to have covered lefties in the 1st two trades)? Who has major upside and would look great in a Fremont A's uni?
Let's go, Fremont.....(drums pounding in the background...)

Poll

What should BB do with Blanton?

Wait until spring to deal him unless someone "bowls us over"

37 votes

Don't trade Cupcakes at all--hold on to him

28 votes

Trade him now to NYM for the aforementioned 4A players

5 votes

Trade him now to NYM for younger, big-upside A/AA players

13 votes

Not deal him to NYM--a better trading partner will come along soon

36 votes

119 votes | Poll has closed

Survivor-Fremont edition

kitoko — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 06:32:35 -0000

Whether you wanted it or not, the rebuild and accompanying fire sale are upon us. Personally, I have been looking forward to this, as rooting for a team that is "Stuck in the middle" is boring. I think it's better to be lousy for a couple of years while developing organizational depth than it is to hope that the mediocre status quo will pleasantly surprise. The "Swingin' A's" of my youth were sold off and pieced out too, but that was a different scenario entirely. This rebuild will hopefully set the entire organization up for a long run of success coinciding with the opening of the new park. The Finley A's were just dismantled, with no plan for the future.
It's fun in times like these to speculate who will be the next Athletic(s) "voted off the island". In a way, it's a compliment for them, because it means that the league values them. Another positive for them is that their new teams will almost certainly be closer to contention in the short run than the A's will be. I have broken the team down into the following "groups" based on what I think will/should happen to them this season:

Group A: Pack your bags, Boys...
Blanton, Street, Embree, Ellis, DJ
These are players that can bring a decent return right now based on their recent performance/durability and contract situations. With Silva scoring a $12m/yr deal with SEA and Cordero a similar deal with CIN, the values of Blanton and Street are at an all-time high. They are young, talented, and cheap. They can bring us a handful of players to root for at the new park. Ellis and Embree have lesser value, but could cetainly be useful to several contending teams, and we should exploit that. DJ's value is not going to get any higher than it is now (because he won't get AB's), so even if we can only get a six-pack of brew in return, he's gotta go...

Group B: Hope like hell for strong, healthy starts for these guys---THEN SHIP 'EM!
Chavez, Kotsay, Calero, Harden, Duke
This group of A's has shown brilliance in the past, but injuries have rendered them next-to-worthless in the trade market. We've gotta hope that they prove to the league they're back to their previous level so we can get some return for them in midseason trades.

Group C: Still on the Fence with these guys
Gaudin, Swisher, Crosby, DiNardo
This group may end up being the ones that endure the lean years but are not around for the awakening. Personally, I would lean toward trading Gaudin as soon as he shows the league he's healthy (Group B), because soon enough he'll either suck or be asking for Silva money, both of which are bad options for us. I say ship him. Swisher is an interesting case. His contract is so heavily backloaded that by the time we're any good, he'll be no bargain. If we ship him now for prospects ready in '10, we lose 100 games instead of 96. What's the difference? Crosby actually benefits more from the rebuild than anyone else, No one will be expecting much of him, and if he pans out, he can still be the man. If not, no biggie----see ya!

Group D: The Fremont Gang
Barton, Buck, Suzuki/Bowen, Casilla, Blevins, Brown, (Hannahan?)
This group should be nurtured to form the core of the next A's dynasty. By '10 or '11, this group will be joined by the best of the talent that this year's trades acquire. Unfortunately, this group must take the field with Group F...

Group F: Five Squared
Meyer, Eveland, Komine, Braden, Windsor
They'll probably draw straws for #1, #2, etc., but at this stage of their respective careers, they're all #5's. It might be a good year to bring your glove to the Coliseum and sit out on the LF stairs waiting for the dinger shower...

It's a sobering reality, but it's not the first A's fire sale, and it won't be the last. Small-market baseball at its finest...Go Fremont A's '11/'12!

Poll

Do you favor trading Swisher and/or Gaudin this year?

Keep Swish, Trade Gaudin

22 votes

Trade Swish, Keep Gaudin

7 votes

Keep them both--the team needs SOME experience!

50 votes

Trade them both--we're gonna lose 90+ anyway!

9 votes

88 votes | Poll has closed

Trading With The Steinbrenners

kitoko — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 18:12:09 -0000

Yesterday I made a "trade proposal"-type post in another member's diary that I at first intended to be sarcastic, but the more I think about it, the more it could make sense for both teams. The proposed trade would have the following players going from OAK to NYY:
SP Dan Haren, SP Joe Blanton, CF Mark Kotsay, SS Bobby Crosby
The following players would be acquired by our beloved Oakland A's:
SP Phil Hughes, SP Ian Kennedy, CF Melky Cabrera, 2B Robinson Cano
Add-ons to this deal could include Mark Ellis to NYY to fill the void created by Cano's departure, Street to NYY, Chamberlain to OAK, NYY AAA ss prospect to OAK, etc.etc.
This deal would make sense for NYY because instead of three rookie "maybes" competing for spots in the rotation, they would acquire two proven, durable, quality "yes's". A team with a $200m payroll cannot possibly feel good about maybes, and in NY thre's no margin for error, no "we'll shoot for next year"...
This deal would make sense for OAK because BB would be exchanging two todays for three tomorrows. If you think we can compete "AS IS" with DET, BOS, LAA, etc., you should probably stop reading now. This deal only makes sense as the cornerstone piece in a rebuilding phase.

BB has figured out that in the current market climate in MLB, a marginal #4 arm commands up to $10m/yr. That is really a frightening figure, one that Wolff will be loath to pony up. So we can forget pursuing pitching on the FA market for an indefinite number of years. As our better pitchers mature, improve, and come up for contract, they will fly the coop to the rich teams. Nothing new there--it's always been that way, ever since I was a kid and George bought Catfish like he was a side of beef in a butcher shop. It saddened me then, and it saddens me now, but it is part of being an A's fan and must be accepted. What needs to happen, better sooner than later, is that we (meaning BB) need to realize that even if all our wounded make miraculous comebacks, the only thing we would be in contention for is to be the 6th best team in a league that awards 4 playoff spots. Last year, we finished 18 games behind a team that has gotten a lot better since then in order to better compete not with us, but with the team that crushed them (BOS). Where do we factor in? Probably about 7-12 games back--IF we bring everyone back. Do we get any special prize for "staying in the hunt until mid-August?"
NO! We need to realize that for the next few years, we will not be THE ONE--we will be one of the other 29, so what difference does it make if we are #9 or #15? It makes no difference at all. Make huge deals THIS YEAR while we can cash our chips out at max value. Can you imagine how receptive NYY would be to the kind of trade detailed above if they were, say, 7 or 8 games out in mid-July and one or more of their talented young pitchers were struggling? The Yankees NEVER think about next year, because they don't need to. When next year comes along, they plug holes by raiding the poorer teams (like ours) of players that have gotten too good (expensive). In July, though, with the season hanging by a thread, they do crazy things...like giving $22m to a 44 year old pitcher to make 15 starts and post an ERA of 5. They would blink and ship us their future in exchange for our present. That helps them in '08 (which, in my opinion, will be a lost year for us anyway), and would theoretically help us big time going forward by giving us 3 potentially solid starters with years of cost control in hand.
What do you think? It does sound sort of crazy at first, but the longer I look at it, the more sense it seems to make...

Poll

Who would benefit more in the short and long term from the trade outlined above?

OAK short tem, NYY long term

0 votes

NYY short and long term

15 votes

OAK short and long term

5 votes

NYY short term, OAK long term

13 votes

33 votes | Poll has closed

Finances and Injuries, Injuries and Finances...

kitoko — Sat, 10 Nov 2007 00:20:46 -0000

If we look at the A's current roster, we find maybe 4 or 5 players that have not been on the DL for extended periods over the last few years. Among the pitchers, only Haren and Blanton have held up, and among position players, only Swisher and Ellis can honestly say they show up for work nearly every day ready to go. The success of the RiverCats last year is truly amazing, because most of the players that should have been in AAA spent huge chunks of the year in Oakland filling in for our no-shows.
Few would argue that the team needs to get substantially better to become a factor again. Teams can get better several different ways: they can go out any buy top-tier talent from the FA pool, they can use their tradeable assets to fill in major weaknesses, they can develop quality players in their farm systems, or the players already on the ML roster can progress and improve. Although I am a die-hard A's fan, looking at our current roster options, it's hard for me to see this team playing in October anytime soon.

The easiest path to improvement is also the most expensive, so Oakland will never choose it. Anyone who thinks Billy is looking to the FA market to buy an A-rod or someone like that had better put down the hash pipe and get back to reality. It's just not going to happen.
We have very few tradeable assets that other clubs would offer us something tempting for, because 90% of our players spend more time on the DL than on the field. No GM will give us a "yes" for a "maybe". If the A's are to jettison players, it will not be at fair value but rather at pennies on the dollar. Street is perhaps the only player on the roster that could be traded at or near the top of his value, and personally I would welcome that because 1)he gives up a ton of dingers, and 2)it is just a matter of time before he breaks down--his mechanics put too much strain on his arm. Ship him while he's still healthy and (relatively) effective! I envision great things for Blevins in Green and Gold...
The third way to improve is through the farm system. We had an opportunity last season to see pretty much everybody from Sacto that management is high on. Among the pitchers, a grand total of ZERO are ready for the show. ZERO! Braden, Windsor, Komine, Meyer, etc. etc. are not realistic options at this point. If a combination of those guys starts 25 or more games for Oakland next year, we'll be 18 games out again. I think they'll be great in the future, but none of them is ready now. Maybe Meyer will finally show up...Among the hitters, of course you gotta like Barton, but honestly who else is there?
"Wait and Hope" is how I would characterize the fourth approach, and it seems to be the one the A's are taking. Everyone hopes Chavez can put it together, because when the best player on the team hits .240 and misses 80 games two years in a row, he's not the best player anymore. Years ago we thought the sky was the limit for this guy, but now I think .275/28/85 would delight the faithful. Crosby is what he is. Solid in the field (on the rare occasions he's on it), no skills at the dish. He is the reincarnation of Walt Weiss--ROY and then flatline...Kotsay's tenure with the A's can basically be characterized by the sound of $24 million being flushed down the toilet. Rich Harden is the most agonizing example of the numerous A's who really need to show up and start doing the job. His talent is so electric, his stuff so dominating, that it brings me to tears to think it may never happen for him at all, much less in an Oakland uniform.
Big-budget clubs never have to make the choice between trying to win now or trying to win later. They use money to acquire what they need and can always reload, like a kid with a pocket full of quarters at the arcade. Oakland is not in that position. Every time Billy has needed to make an acquisition, it has always come at a price. Who can name the most dominant pitcher in the NL over the last two seasons? It's none other than Aaron Harang, who went to the Reds in exchange for a rent-a-bat named Guillen who promptly defected to the enemy Angels after the season and has since played for about 9 other teams and had 'roids shipped to him in every city. At the time of the trade, Harang could barely make it 5 innings, and our bullpen was horrendous at that time. It made sense then--fill a immediate need by hocking a small piece of the future.
The Ethier/Bradley trade is another example of this. We never have the money for a sure-fire solution, so we end up taking gambles on a maybe. The Frank Thomas gamble worked, but Bradley clearly shows that this approach is hit and miss. These are the kinds of dilemmas big-money clubs rarely find themselves in, and if they do trade away a prospect that ends up being a star, they can always buy him back later...
Our team has a long way to go to get back into contention. Having the MASH unit make a recovery and actually show up for work on occasion this year would be a welcome sight, but even with everyone healthy, we still have a lot of holes to fill. I am always optimistic about the Green and Gold, but these next few years look to be very challenging...

Poll

What can we expect offensively in '08 from the left side of the infield?

Both Chavez and Crosby break down again and spend extended periods on DL

20 votes

Chavez back to pre-injury peak, Crosby healthy but still an easy out

31 votes

Chavez stuck at .250 with 100+K's, Crosby makes significant progress

4 votes

Both Chavez and Crosby healthy, significant production from both

8 votes

63 votes | Poll has closed

God bless Billy--without him we are the Royals

kitoko — Mon, 05 Nov 2007 17:01:44 -0000

Billy Beane has done a tremendous job and he seems to enjoy trying to beat the big-budget teams at their own game. However, this is becoming more difficult every year because a fundamental quirk in the financial reality of baseball has been discovered by GM's around the league. I refer to the relative costs of hitting and pitching to a team's payroll.
In past years, the truly huge contracts always went to hitters, so Oakland was always on the outside looking in when it came to acquiring proven power bats. We had home-grown power like Giambi and Tejada, who bolted for the big money as soon as they could. However, even though everyone knows that pitching IS baseball, the cost of a true impact pitcher was much less in recent years than the cost of a position player of equal impact. Thus, Billy was able to assemble a roster consisting of five solid starters (who gave us a chance to win every day), a ragtag bunch in the pen (hey, ya gotta scrimp somewhere), and a lineup full of guys hoping to see ball four before strike three. That mix was potent enough to keep our beloved A's in the playoffs several years running.

Unfortunately, those days seem to be over. When Adam Eaton, Jason Marquis, Vicente Padilla, and other mediocre and marginal talents commmand contracts of $10m+/year, what are our chances of seeing a proven, dependable major-league starting pitcher in green and gold every night? The Sacto kids have tremendous promise for the future, but the future is not now for any of them. NONE OF THEM ARE READY NOW--AND WE NEED PITCHING NOW! In '07, with Harden and Loaiza no-shows, Gaudin really stepped it up during the first half, and Haren was close to unhittable before the break too. That allowed us to stay close, but it all unraveled in the summer, as it deteriorated into Joe Blanton and pray for 4 days of rain.
Pitching IS baseball, and, sadly, MLB GM's have figured that out and priced us out of it. Don't be surprised to see Blanton in another uniform before opening day (a la Mulder/Hudson), because even the most optimistic A's fans know that he will walk after this year, just like Zito did. Can you blame them? If I had some idiot(like Sabean HA HA) willing to overpay me by $60 million, I would take it too! Billy will wisely try to trade him (Blanton)in his walk year, and you can fast-forward a few years to envision an identical scenario for Danny Haren. Oakland is the Little Engine That Could, but the mountain is getting steeper every year...
We want to believe that when the new ballpark is completed, the new revenue streams will allow ownership to loosen the purse strings to give Billy more budget ammo to work with. While this may be true to a certain extent, our team operates in such a different financial stratosphere as the big-market clubs that the effect of this may not be as big as we would hope. Instead of being $200 million short of the amount needed to sign an A-Rod, we'll only be $100 million short. The bottom line in both cases is that we don't get him.
As we show a willingness to spend a LITTLE bit more, the Yankees et. al. will show a willingness to spend A LOT more, thus keeping the current comparative reality intact, albeit with larger numbers which will only serve to increase ticket prices. During this offseason, a contract will be signed by ONE PLAYER representing DOUBLE the purchase price for our ENTIRE HALLOWED ORGANIZATION just a few years back. It's shocking and appalling, but it's true, and it is the world that Billy Beane operates in. He has mastered this reality, and we as lifelong disciples of the Green and Gold can be thankful for his leadership. Ask a Pirates fan how it feels to go into every year knowing his team will finish 28 games back in the weakest division in baseball. Without shrewd direction from Billy and his staff, we are the Pirates...
My first game at the Coliseum was in '73, when my folks took me to see Catfish pitch. The money issue broke up that bunch too. Since then, we have had great teams and lousy teams, but they have all been my teams, and I always await spring training on pins and needles. Can our Oakland A's defeat the evil zombie hordes from all parts North, South, and East? I for one am curious to find out...

GREEN AND GOLD FOREVER!!!!!!!!!

Poll

When Danny Haren's current contract expires, who will he sign with?

New York Yankees

22 votes

Boston Red Sox

13 votes

San Francisco Giants

7 votes

Other

14 votes

Our beloved Oakland Athletics

31 votes

87 votes | Poll has closed