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May 25, 2008 Dec 17, 2009 10 432

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Fantasy match-making in the UFC Light HW Division


Despite recent setbacks like the Machida-Rua controversy, Machida's injury, and the indefinite departures of Henderson, Jackson and Liddell, the UFC Light Heavyweight division still has the potential to be exciting. Let's first list the upcoming match-ups in the division then explore some of the interesting possibilities ahead.


Machida vs Rua
The general consensus is that Rua deserves the immediate title shot. Due to Machida's injury, however, the fight must be postponed at least until spring. By the time the winner of that fight is ready to defend his title in the summer or fall of next year, the division may look vastly different than it does now. 

Evans vs Silva
Two top-ranked light heavies looking to return to contention. Silva has already rebounded from his destruction at the hands of current champion Machida by knocking out Jardine. A win over Evans, the previous champion, would make Silva the #1 contender. Having Silva fight for the title is especially appealing if Rua emerges victiorious (I am always reluctant about rematches, especially for title shots, especially when the original fight was so decisive.) Meanwhile Evans needs at least one more win before fighting for the title.

Coleman-Couture

This fight makes sense on many levels. Both veterans are coming off decision wins against mid-level competition (in the form of Bonnar and Vera, respectively). Since we are dealing with stars who can be entertaining to follow even if they are not necessarily threats to the title, the outcome of this fight could lead to some interesting match-ups

Jones vs Hammill
Jones is an undefeated star tearing thru the middle of the LHW division, with recent wins over Bonnar and former HW O'Brien. If he finishes Hammill, he should finally get his first taste of Top 10 compeition. As for Hammill, who has amassed a solid record but was blocked from entering the LHW elite with losses to Franklin and Bisping, a win against Jones should place him right on the outskirts of the Top 10.



Now the fun part. I will make the case for some future match-ups that make sense in the UFC LHW division. Join me by playing Joe Silva in the comment section.


Nogueira vs the winner of Evans-Silva
The winner of this fight would the #1 contender for the title. For Evans, this means a trajectory of wins over Silva and Nogueira since he lost his title to Machida - a very respectable run. For Silva, straight wins against Jardine, Evans and Nogueira would make him an undisputed top contender. Even if Machida still holds the belt, he would have look upon Silva as a serious threat to his title. As for Nogueira, nobody could deny him a title shot after his stunning knockoug of the feared Cane followed by a good win over either Evans or Silva.

Griffin vs the winner of Coleman-Couture
Griffin has a ways to climb before redeeming himself from his back-to-back knockout losses to Evans and Anderson Silva. It makes sense for him to take on a few lower-ranked opponents before he returns to contention. Griffin has spoken disparagingly of Coleman, but with wins over Griffin's TUF rival Bonnar and his TUF coach Couture, Coleman should get Griffin's attention. (Couture is on the record mocking the "BJJ-inspired" tradition of refusing to fight gym partners, so that shouldn't be an obstacle.) The winner of this fight would be one additional win away from a title shot - perhaps against the loser of Machida-Rua.

Ortiz vs the loser of Coleman-Couture
If Coleman loses, then Ortiz will finally get his promised "tune-up" fight against the aging veteran. If Couture loses, a rematch of the classic Couture-Ortiz fight would be exciting despite its irrelevance to title contention in the division. That makes Ortiz vs the loser of Coleman-Couture a win-win situation.

Jardine vs the winner of Jones-Hammill
With his inconsistent record against top LHWs, Jardine has proven that he can hang with the best without truly vying for the title. This makes him the very definition of a gatekeeper, albeit a gatekeeper to the Top 10 of the LHW division. He is the perfect choice to welcome - or turn away - Jones or Hammill at the doorstep of the LHW Top 10.

Cane vs Vera
Both are hyped fighters coming off embarrassing losses. They will be hungry to pust past losses behind them but certainly fearful of being further down-graded. It is time to put one man's hype to rest for once and for all, so who shall it, Cane or Vera?

Liddell vs Franklin
In the spirit of the veteran match-ups that are being put together. This could be a spectacular fight if Liddell showed up in good shape. There's little chance of Franklin tapping Liddell's chin since he lacks the power of Evans and Rua. It's also a no-lose fight because if the winner takes in impressive fashion, he keeps himself close to the title picture. If both fighters come off looking shot, well, the fight still has that historic value.

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Strikeforce should counter-program WEC

David Wolf of MMA Payout lays out another strategy by which Strikeforce can wage guerilla warfare against Zuffa. Strikeforce should time its shows to coincide with the WEC, hurting Zuffa's where it is vulnerable by attracting a portion of the potential viewership of Zuffa's lesser-known promotion. This would also force Zuffa into a bind. To counter-program Strikeforce events, the UFC would have to essentially cannibalize its own WEC audience.

According to Wolf, Scott Coker has no reason to fear a UFC counter-programming effort on October 10 stating:

[It] hurts Zuffa because there already is a WEC show scheduled for October 10 airing live on Versus, so Zuffa would not only compete against Strikeforce, but would also counter itself — a grand strategy, indeed.

Wolf advises Coker on mounting some kind of resistance against the Zuffa machine:

Seriously, Coker, what you should be doing is scheduling EVERY major Strikeforce show against WEC, just to fight back a bit.  Let Dana counter himself, or let Zuffa keep changing WEC dates.  Either way, at least you’d be an irritant.

The case for another strategy for Strikeforce - to counter-program the UFC's next Lesnar PPV with a free fight featuring Fedor - has already been made excellently by Michael Rome (here and here), and again in a recent fanpost by some random asshole. Both ideas show that there are options for Scott Coker and Strikeforce when it comes to resisting Zuffa's open determination to eliminate Strikeforce or reduce it to an appendage of the UFC. It is too hasty to assume that Zuffa is guaranteed a total victory in this fight.

14 comments  |  1 recs

Denis Kang to face Michael Bisping at UFC 105

 

Denis Kang speaks to Fighters Only Magazine about his next opponent, Michael Bisping. His comments after the jump.


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via www.blogcdn.com

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30 comments  |  1 recs

Dana White: Brazil yes; Philippines, not yet

 

At the post-UFC 102 press conference, Dana White reveals the UFC's intention to put on a show in Brazil at an undetermined date. MMA Junkie reports:

"I don't know what date yet (for an event), but what we're starting to do is ramp up down in Brazil right now... We just hired this big PR firm. We got a television deal down there. The ratings are kicking ass. We're going to start getting a lot of these guys that deserve to be seen and known by the Brazilian fans... That's what we're working on now. That's our footprint. We go in there, we start on free television, and then we bring a live event down."

 

Unfortunately, due to the state of the economy and despite signs of the sport's popularity in the Philippines, fans of Brandon Vera and Mark Munoz are going to have to sit tight - for now:

"We were going to go to the Philippines... We had a deal done to go to the Philippines, and then when the world collapsed, the sponsors that were going to help us get down there, everything fell apart. Nobody has any money anymore. It's a lot trickier to figure out how to navigate throughout the world without money."

 

Here's hoping it happens soon, in both countries and more to come.

27 comments  |  0 recs

Lyoto Machida: Karate principles beat Evans and Griffin

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Fighters Only Magazine provides a translation of Machida's first interview (given to a local newspaper) since he began training for Rua. After the jump, Machida comments on how jiu-jitsu facilitates his striking style, principles of karate, and they key to Anderson Silva's destruction of Forrest Griffin.

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16 comments  |  8 recs

Making Sense of the UFC HW Division (w/ poll)

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We start with a linear or near-linear ranking of the Top 10 Heavies of the UFC.

1. Mir
2. Nogueira
3. Lesnar
4. Couture
5. Santos
6. Carwin
7. Gonzaga
8. Velasquez
9. Herring
10. Kongo

Correction: Thanks to Chris Nelson's reminder I've dropped references to Jake O'Brien, who has moved to LHW.

Poll
Who will be the reigning UFC HW Champion by December 2009?
Brock Lesnar
161 votes
Frank Mir
50 votes
Antonio Nogueira
8 votes
Randy Couture
9 votes
Shane Carwin
43 votes
Cain Velasquez
6 votes
Junior dos Santos
10 votes
Cheick Kongo
3 votes

290 votes | Poll has closed

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78 comments  |  3 recs |

Outcomes of Franklin vs W.Silva

This was an unexpected match-up, and it's refreshing to be surprised like that. At first I felt uneasy about it but it's grown on me. The catch weight wasn't the issue; Franklin seems to have not much problem oscillating within that range, and it's a graduated weight loss for Silva. The point is these are two excellent, highly-ranked strikers with the potential to contend in both the LHW and MW divisions. However both fighters are considered to be in decline and feel pressure to assert their relevance. A victory by each fighter would be significant in its own way. A loss would be devastating.

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Middleweight gets interesting (poll)

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via www.sportsnet.ca

 

Tonight's MW match-ups helped clear up the title picture in the UFC's least vaunted division. The inclusion of W.Silva and Sonnen, the rise of Maia and Marquardt, the patient Okami, the imminent return of Cote, the potential of Palhares, the possibility of GSP entering the mix...  It all makes for some tantalizing possible match-ups.

 

Poll
Who most deserves a shot at the belt of Anderson Silva?
Thales Leites
0 votes
Yushin Okami
43 votes
Michael Bisping
3 votes
Demian Maia
43 votes
Dan Henderson
6 votes
Nate Marquardt
24 votes
Georges St-Pierre
10 votes

129 votes | Poll has closed

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28 comments  |  2 recs

Megafights of 2009

Anderson Silva and GSP have largely cleaned out their respective divisions. When fighters reach that level they ean the right to challange warriors from other weight classes. In the meantime, they maintain their responsibility to defend their belts in their own weight classes.

GSP is set to fight BJ Penn in January. Regardless of the outcome, GSP would be ready by March/April to defend his title against Thiago Alves. If GSP wins, he can next face Anderson Silva at a catchweight for undisputed pound-for-pound champion of the world. Back at Welterweight, there is a good chance Jake Shields will be signed to the UFC and fast-tracked to a title fight. All other top-ranked welterweight - Hughes, Serra, Fitch, Koscheck - have already suffered defeats at the hands of GSP. If champions have been usurped in the Middleweight or Lightweight divisions, GSP could face them. GSP has even hinted at a desire to take on Light Heavyweights, eventually.

Anderson Silva can be matched up against Chuck Liddell in January. In March/April, he could take on a recovered Okami for his rightful shot at the Middleweight title. The epic Silva vs St-Pierre fight can take place in June/July. If Michael Bisping defeats the winner of Henderson vs Franklin, he can have the next shot at Silva in Oct/Nov. Assuming Silva wins all of these fights, he can then take on the Light Heavyweight Champion. That would be one of four men: Forrest Griffin, Rashad Evans, Quintion Jackson and Wanderlei Silva. This might be the UFC fight of largest ever proportions. And if Anderson Silva overcomes this challenge, he could take on the UFC Heavyweight Champion - Randy Couture, Brock Lesnar, AR Nogueira or Frank Mir - for his final fight before retirement.

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#1 Contenders at LW, WW and MW

In 3 UFC weight classes - LW, WW and MW - the champion is expected to fight outside his division. #1 Contenders in each category must either fight in the meantime or sit out for several months. Most will sensibly opt to fight.

The next decision is whether to pit contenders against cans in order not to jeopardize their title shot, or whether to pit them against other contenders in legitimate #1 Contender fights. It's becoming increasingly clear that there is little upside to fighting a can and risking defeat to an unknown. Werdum's knockout is a case in point. There is an opportunity to set up a round of #1 Contender fights in each division.

At Lightweight, Penn is set to fight GSP in January. The #1 Contender is widely held to be Florian. The 2 other top fighters, Sherk and Stevenson, have already had title shots and lost decisively to Penn. A victorious Florian might choose to wait until Penn was ready to fight him. If he chose to fight, Diaz would be a good option. Unlike Florian, Stevenson and Diaz are more than one win away from a title shot. In other words, they'd each need another victory beyond Florian to qualify for a shot.

At Welterweight, the #1 contender is Alves. He should fight his original opponent, Sanchez, while biding his time for a shot at GSP. If Sanchez won, he would need another victory before a title shot.

At Middleweight, Silva needs a break from the division and should take some fights against Top 10 Light Heavyweights. The best-ranked Middleweights, Henderson and Franklien, are slated to fight, but it is unclear whether they will fight as Middleweights or Light Heavyweights. The injured #! contender is Okami. If he is healed and eager to fight, he could take on Lutter. If Okami is not ready to fight, Bisping could be set against the TUF killer, Macdonald.

At Light Heavyweight, A. Silva should be thrown in against Liddell for an epic match.

5 comments  |  0 recs