SB Nation User Blog: klown

Making Sense of the UFC HW Division (w/ poll)

klown — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 23:07:39 -0000

We start with a linear or near-linear ranking of the Top 10 Heavies of the UFC.

1. Mir
2. Nogueira
3. Lesnar
4. Couture
5. Santos
6. Carwin
7. Gonzaga
8. Velasquez
9. Herring
10. Kongo

Correction: Thanks to Chris Nelson's reminder I've dropped references to Jake O'Brien, who has moved to LHW.

Next, here are some upcoming fights scheduled for this summer:

Mir vs Lesnar Although Mir's injury has delayed the fight, there's no indication or reason the fight will be canceled. The winner is the undisputed Heavyweight champion of the UFC, and the #2 HW in the world after Fedor. It's a risky fight to predict because we are still discovering Lesnar's potential, but Mir certainly has the chance to (re)burst the Lesnar bubble.

Nogueira vs Couture The fight for 3rd place. Both are declining superstars of MMA. Stylistically, it's a classic American vs Brazilian match-up, with the American specializing in Greco-Roman wrestling and dirty boxing, and the Brazilian excelling in Muay Thai and jiu-jitsu. It's possible Couture will succumb to a submission from the master who guillotined Sylvia and survived Fedor twice. It's more likely Couture will take this one by decision or TKO. It's not clear where either fighter goes from here. It will depend on their performance and their willingness to keep fighting.

Velasquez vs Herring This fight resembles the Carwin-Gonzaga fight in that Velasquez and Carwin are much-heralded rising stars representing the new generation of UFC HWs, and neither had been truly tested until Carwin knocked out Gonzaga. Velasquez's greatest victory so far is over O'Brien, and besting Herring will establish him as a contender, while a loss will temporarily postpone his dreams of a title shot.

Kongo vs Hardonk Kongo needs to prove whether he deserves to be taken seriously. His recent results consist of a decision win over CroCop, a decision loss to Herring and TKO of the overmatched al-Turk. If Kongo wins, he should be matched against a serious contender, like Carwin or Santos. A loss relegates Kongo to a Herring-like gatekeeper role.

These fights will go a long way toward establishing a clear linear hierarchy at the top of the HW division.

This leaves the following top UFC heavies with no set match-ups.

Junior dos Santos Santos uppercut his way into the Top 10 and eliminated Werdum from the UFC in the process. Just in case his win was a fluke, he was then matched against UFC debutant Struve and overwhelmed the kid. It's time to take Santos seriously and give him some top competition. I would match him against Carwin in fight to determine the #1 contender.

Mirko CroCop The legendary kickboxer is set to make his return at UFC 100 in Germany. The question remains, against who? This depends on CroCop's intentions, and the UFC's plans, which will fall into one of the following categories.

Showcase: If they want to provide CroCop with a squash match - always a risky move in MMA - there are plenty of subpar competitors like Grove, Struve and at-Turk. CroCop still has it in him to knock these guys silly.
Contention: If he is interested in truly competing for the belt, CroCopmust face a hungry riser like Carwin or Santos, or else re-match Kongo. A win over any of these puts him one win away from a title shot.
Superfight: If the point is to have an epic megafight or two before retirement, fights against fellow old-timers like Couture and Nogueira stand out. However both will be fighting near UFC 100. A similar option would be to take on former PRIDE comrade Mark Coleman.

Poll

Who will be the reigning UFC HW Champion by December 2009?

Brock Lesnar

161 votes

Frank Mir

50 votes

Antonio Nogueira

8 votes

Randy Couture

9 votes

Shane Carwin

43 votes

Cain Velasquez

6 votes

Junior dos Santos

10 votes

Cheick Kongo

3 votes

290 votes | Poll has closed

Outcomes of Franklin vs W.Silva

klown — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 05:27:45 -0000

This was an unexpected match-up, and it's refreshing to be surprised like that. At first I felt uneasy about it but it's grown on me. The catch weight wasn't the issue; Franklin seems to have not much problem oscillating within that range, and it's a graduated weight loss for Silva. The point is these are two excellent, highly-ranked strikers with the potential to contend in both the LHW and MW divisions. However both fighters are considered to be in decline and feel pressure to assert their relevance. A victory by each fighter would be significant in its own way. A loss would be devastating.

Scenario 1: Franklin wins

via img.thesun.co.uk

Significance

For Franklin: Catapults him to the top 5 of the LHW division. If Rampage and Machida get the next 2 title shots, the 3rd could be determined by having Franklin face the winner of Liddell-Rua

For Silva: If he decides to continue his career, and continue the weight drop to 185, Silva must realize he begins at the bottom of the heap. Silva can be pit against gatekeepers like Leben for some fireworks. But a loss there would mean the end for Wanderlei

Scenario 2: Silva wins

via www.mmaweekly.com

Significance

For Silva: He is immediately at Top 3 MW, behind A.Silva and Henderson. If the next title shots go to Leites, Bisping, and Okami or Maia, there is plenty of time for W.Silva vs Marquardt for #1 contender. And if W.Silva strings together knockouts or decisions against Jardine, Franklin and Marquardt, there is no denying him a shot at Anderson

For Franklin: His biggest win at 205 is against the barely-ranked Hamill, with 2 losses against Top 10 LHWs. Franklin would have to test himself against up-and-comers like Cane to prove his continued relevance

Middleweight gets interesting (poll)

klown — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 05:45:41 -0000

via www.sportsnet.ca

Tonight's MW match-ups helped clear up the title picture in the UFC's least vaunted division. The inclusion of W.Silva and Sonnen, the rise of Maia and Marquardt, the patient Okami, the imminent return of Cote, the potential of Palhares, the possibility of GSP entering the mix... It all makes for some tantalizing possible match-ups.

via farm3.static.flickr.com

Here's a ranking of the UFC MWs based, as purely as possible, on wins over other ranked opponents:

1. Anderson Silva

2. Dan Henderson

3. Rich Franklin

4. Yushin Okami

5. Demian Maia

6. Chael Sonnen

7. Thales Leites

8. Nate Marquardt

9. Wilson Gouveia

10. Patrick Cote

11. Jason MacDonald

12. Martin Kampmann

13. Michael Bisping

14. Jason Day

15. Alan Belcher

16. Denis Kang

17. Nate Quarry

18. Chris Leben

19. Kendall Grove

20. Rousimar Palhares

(Update: I reconsidered my stance on Kang, and removed Starnes because he is no longer in the UFC)

via www.fightlinker.com

Poll

Who most deserves a shot at the belt of Anderson Silva?

Thales Leites

0 votes

Yushin Okami

43 votes

Michael Bisping

3 votes

Demian Maia

43 votes

Dan Henderson

6 votes

Nate Marquardt

24 votes

Georges St-Pierre

10 votes

129 votes | Poll has closed

Megafights of 2009

klown — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 04:55:15 -0000

Anderson Silva and GSP have largely cleaned out their respective divisions. When fighters reach that level they ean the right to challange warriors from other weight classes. In the meantime, they maintain their responsibility to defend their belts in their own weight classes.

GSP is set to fight BJ Penn in January. Regardless of the outcome, GSP would be ready by March/April to defend his title against Thiago Alves. If GSP wins, he can next face Anderson Silva at a catchweight for undisputed pound-for-pound champion of the world. Back at Welterweight, there is a good chance Jake Shields will be signed to the UFC and fast-tracked to a title fight. All other top-ranked welterweight - Hughes, Serra, Fitch, Koscheck - have already suffered defeats at the hands of GSP. If champions have been usurped in the Middleweight or Lightweight divisions, GSP could face them. GSP has even hinted at a desire to take on Light Heavyweights, eventually.

Anderson Silva can be matched up against Chuck Liddell in January. In March/April, he could take on a recovered Okami for his rightful shot at the Middleweight title. The epic Silva vs St-Pierre fight can take place in June/July. If Michael Bisping defeats the winner of Henderson vs Franklin, he can have the next shot at Silva in Oct/Nov. Assuming Silva wins all of these fights, he can then take on the Light Heavyweight Champion. That would be one of four men: Forrest Griffin, Rashad Evans, Quintion Jackson and Wanderlei Silva. This might be the UFC fight of largest ever proportions. And if Anderson Silva overcomes this challenge, he could take on the UFC Heavyweight Champion - Randy Couture, Brock Lesnar, AR Nogueira or Frank Mir - for his final fight before retirement.

#1 Contenders at LW, WW and MW

klown — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 23:25:02 -0000

In 3 UFC weight classes - LW, WW and MW - the champion is expected to fight outside his division. #1 Contenders in each category must either fight in the meantime or sit out for several months. Most will sensibly opt to fight.

The next decision is whether to pit contenders against cans in order not to jeopardize their title shot, or whether to pit them against other contenders in legitimate #1 Contender fights. It's becoming increasingly clear that there is little upside to fighting a can and risking defeat to an unknown. Werdum's knockout is a case in point. There is an opportunity to set up a round of #1 Contender fights in each division.

At Lightweight, Penn is set to fight GSP in January. The #1 Contender is widely held to be Florian. The 2 other top fighters, Sherk and Stevenson, have already had title shots and lost decisively to Penn. A victorious Florian might choose to wait until Penn was ready to fight him. If he chose to fight, Diaz would be a good option. Unlike Florian, Stevenson and Diaz are more than one win away from a title shot. In other words, they'd each need another victory beyond Florian to qualify for a shot.

At Welterweight, the #1 contender is Alves. He should fight his original opponent, Sanchez, while biding his time for a shot at GSP. If Sanchez won, he would need another victory before a title shot.

At Middleweight, Silva needs a break from the division and should take some fights against Top 10 Light Heavyweights. The best-ranked Middleweights, Henderson and Franklien, are slated to fight, but it is unclear whether they will fight as Middleweights or Light Heavyweights. The injured #! contender is Okami. If he is healed and eager to fight, he could take on Lutter. If Okami is not ready to fight, Bisping could be set against the TUF killer, Macdonald.

At Light Heavyweight, A. Silva should be thrown in against Liddell for an epic match.