SB Nation User Blog: knockoutking

OT: College Football - 11.29

knockoutking — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 00:08:52 -0000

thoughts:

damn, baylor put a scare into TT. too bad they couldnt pull it out.

tebow "we didnt look forward to alabama, FSU is a great team" - just call him Mr. P.C.

and tonight: bedlam. its gonna be nuts.

whose everyones picks?

i think OU wins.

also, lou holtz talking about USC being in the national championship race? whaaaaaaaaaaaaat. i just hope oregon state goes to the rose bowl.

oh, and damn, sylvester croom NEVER ranked higher than 103 in total offense and only cracked the top 100 in offensive pts/game one time in FIVE years...and he was *known* as an offensive guy? whaaaaaaaat. wow.

im kind of suprised croom resigned right after the game. wonder if it will be a situation where the following coach benefits for croom being right before him?

anyway. bedlam.

klaw chat + rangers burn

knockoutking — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 20:27:10 -0000

Rangers Fans: Come on, the Rangers have won one playoff game in their history, how can we not be at the top of the list?

Keith Law: Because there are, like, five of you.

Erich (CT): Why won't Texas get their heads out of their you know what's and sign a damn starting pitcher for once? It's got to be incredibly frusterating to see the team continue to NOT do what it takes to win.

Keith Law: Because they have a ton of young pitching in their system now. They've signed lots of starting pitchers - Millwood, Padilla, Park. How did those guys work out?

Russell (McKinney, TX): Keith, If you were Jon Daniels who would you target to trade our catching surplus with? What kind of player could the Rangers get?

Keith Law: Just get the best player/package you can. Pitching is always great, but they do have a lot of it on the way.

Matt (Boston): The percentage of "questions" today where Philly fans are ripping you for clearly making your WS prediction based on personal hatred for the city is...

Keith Law: Zero. They're all in jail today.

James (Chicago): Can you give a quick assessment of Junichi Tazawa? I assume you've never seen him but have you heard any reports?

Keith Law: Seen some video clips and talked to folks ... he's pretty promising, sounds like a first-round talent. Sits low-90s with good offspeed stuff - saw a very good splitter on a video clip that the NPB Tracker blog found.

Nick (Boston): Re: your comments last week about Masterson: is it that would you like to see him become an extended long reliever, or that's where he is best suited? Would the Red Sox be wrong to make him a starter?

Keith Law: He's nowhere near as effective as a starter, not least because lefties get him pretty good.

Ross (CA): When you discussed the value of Peavy it got me wondering whether or not you believe that Greinke and Cain would be worth similar packages to what Haren and Bedard netted? They seem like more valuable pieces due to their ages, payroll control, and potential no?

Keith Law: And their lack of recent arm trouble. Cain's contract is outstanding, so he's got the most value to me. Greinke has only two years left of control, I believe, so he's got the least.

OT: Dallas vs TB

knockoutking — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 16:58:19 -0000

Go Cowboys!

It should be interesting to see how the playcalls change w/ wade calling the game...im excited about that (as is Sharky, as we all know)

But lets see how the offense does. This may be the week we really see what Garrett is worth, what he can do with "subpar" talent at QB.

Also I want to see if they get Roy Williams involved...and how Choice does backing up MBIII

Go Cowboys!

OT: Cowboys vs Rams

knockoutking — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 16:48:01 -0000

wow - fox just ripppppppppppppppppppppppppped pacman jones on the frank calliendo as john madden pick show

frank calliendo needs to be kicked off of television.

at least they are playing the rams...

and howie now rips pacman jones...HE DIDNT ACTUALLY DO ANYTHING WRONG, legally

and howie compared roger goodell - because "97% of players in the nfl" do good off the field. HA. adam jones didnt actually do anything. no police reports filed. no charges pressed. no one hurt. ...so other than he said she said, what did he do?

and yes, i understand he was on very thin ice...

also the NFL is fining teams whose get 2+ players suspended in one year - $20,588 per game up to a max of $200,000.

brad johnson starting, romo active. if it was a playoff game romo could go "no question" (his words)

go cowboys.

OT: NCAA Football - 10/18

knockoutking — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 14:26:11 -0000

Games of note: (My picks in bold)

Texas vs Mizzou
Tech vs aTm
Alabama vs Ole Miss
Ohio St vs Michigan
OU vs Kansas
LSU vs South Carolina
Georgia vs Vandy
Houston vs SMU

it should be an intersting week. heres hoping texas can pull it off/bring it

texas and alabama have some tough skeds the rest of the way...i doubt that both of them make it undefeated the rest of the way

also, houston nutt is a damn good coach. 5x has overcome being a double digit underdog on the road (vs top 10 teams i think?) over the last 10 years. im interested to see what happens. that said i dont think that they can beat alabama, though it will probably be close. i dont think nick saban loses after having 2 weeks off + having the #2 run defense in college football.

OT: Romo has a broken pinkey

knockoutking — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 15:51:40 -0000

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has a broken pinkie on his throwing hand and will be out four weeks, a team source told ESPN's Michael Smith.

Romo initially was diagnosed with a pinkie sprain in Sunday's 30-24 overtime loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

Veteran quarterback Brad Johnson, the Cowboys' holder on kicks, is Romo's backup.

The Cowboys have lost two of their last three games after starting the season 3-0.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3640890

guess this kind of shows why he was so shitty yesterday

but brad johnson? bleh

whats next for the boys...

Nolan Ryan, Daisuke Matsuzaka and "coddling"

knockoutking — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 17:00:36 -0000

With all of the current talk about Nolan Ryan and the fact that he wants to stop the current trend of overly protecting pitchers from injury, are there any of the current MLB teams/front offices who have looked at Japan and how they handle pitchers. I know that when Dice-K came over there was a lot of talk about if the Red Sox would attempt to restructure his pitching routine (and IIRC they did not until this past off-season) in order to "protect the investment" or "keep him healthy" - however in the end they decided to let him use his own routine in order to maybe let him get acclimated to the United States, etc.

Now that he got hurt, IIRC over the offseason or since he recently was hurt they have changed it to a more normalized program, compared to MLB pitchers.

Anyway, evidently Nolan wants to make the pitchers as tough as they are talented and stretch them out (at all levels of the farm)…

I guess my main question is this: as far anyone knows, have any Major League (or Indy League or any League in general) looked at pitchers and their routines in Japan?

If so has anything been carried over from Japan to the US? Compared to United States/MLB pitchers, are Japanese/NPB pitchers more or less likely to get hurt/be injured (be it TJ surgery, shoulder surgery, labrum surgery, etc)?

Is there any reason that a team WOULDNT look at the Japanese program regarding pitching? (I presume the only reason not to is the fear of injury, as a result of how much money is spent on draft picks/FA signings)

Do pitchers who make the switch from the US to Japan fair? Do they make the change to the NPB pitching program? Do they keep their own?

I understand the pipeline for baseball is different there (MUCH more time spent with your high school team, longer season, etc) but the idea there seems to be you throw a lot at a younger age, building on it as you advance in the ranks to the professional level and a lot more focus on endurance (look at the Dice-K workout below) - from distance thrown to number of pitches thrown on off-day and during bullpens to lack of weight training and more of a focus on cardio.

Another question: Is this something that you think should be considered when it comes to the Rangers system (if not the high pitch counts, the focus on endurance as stated above (more pitches on off days, more focus on cardio)?

info about Matsuzaka and his younger/developmental years:

Functional Path Trath (fmr Chicago White Sox trainer): http://tinyurl.com/3jxxey (interesting read)

when he was younger he would throw ~1000 pitches/week http://tinyurl.com/3ee95o

He tossed 72 complete games between 1999 and 2006, 30 more than big-league leader Randy Johnson during the same span" - " He effortlessly throws 300 feet; most pitchers top out at 200. His first spring-training long-toss session nearly put Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell in a sling. The right-hander has been known to long-toss during pre-game introductions and throw in the bull pen after his starts, both of which are simply unheard of in the majors."

"One day before Boston beat Toronto May 9, Matsuzaka threw 109 pitches in the bull pen." - "Indeed, while his rigorous throwing habits make him an anomaly in the U.S., they're actually quite normal in Asia, particularly Japan, where exercising to exhaustion is considered a virtue. Matsuzaka was raised in a baseball culture that thinks nothing of following a 150-pitch start with three straight 150-pitch bull pen sessions prior to the next start"

"The Red Sox tried selling Matsuzaka on weight training, but beyond simple rotator cuff exercises, he'd rather run and throw 100 pitches in the bull pen than do squats or bench presses. The practice helps him maintain superb mechanics, which lessens the strain on his arm."

from: Mens Fitness, Aug 2007

"He said that during his 17-inning epic he was never concerned about injuring himself. “In a sense, I had been trained to throw many, many pitches,” he said." - "

from: http://tinyurl.com/3ndglp (also said he threw 250 pitches/day when younger)

"Japanese pitchers in general have more pitches and better control than Americans. They practice a lot more, starting in Jr. High School and High School where it's required to practice 11 months a year. Japanese have turned baseball into a martial art."

-Robert Whiting (noted Japanese Baseball author/follower)

**Update**

I emailed Will Carroll with basically this fanpost + a little more and here were his reponses:

Will Carroll:

"The Japanese routines have been looked at and generally rejected. You'd need to start at much lower levels to make it work. Why not? Higher incidence of arm injury, shorter careers, and fewer talented pitchers. "

sounds like the second comment below

OT: NCAA Football 10/4

knockoutking — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 16:36:50 -0000

Open thread for the games today 10/4

looking forward/ahead to next week and the red river shootout

looks to be one of the better games of the last few years with probably as much on the line as there has been since 05 when VY and co were still at Texas

I am interested to see Texas play tonite vs Colorado...but am stuck watching Ole Miss vs Florida on Yahoo! Sports: http://tinyurl.com/484fll

should be interesting!

OT/Politics: McCain/Obama Presidential Forum

knockoutking — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 00:34:11 -0000

open thread - mccain and obama at saddleback church in california.

should be interesting - no matter who you support.

allows us to see how the candidates compare to each other...

also: who will they pick for the VPs?

darkhorses:
i think it would be interesting for mccain to pick huckabee, get closer to the base and get the evangalical christians out to vote in mass for him.

i also think it would be intersting for obama to pick bill richardson because of his experience in the foreign policy arena...

anyway it should be interesting!

Eric Hurley - Overrated prospect?

knockoutking — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 18:04:03 -0000

knockoutking...
I have read some really, really stupid things before, but calling Hurley as the most overrated prospect is absolutely asinine.

If you don’t include the last game he pitched when it was OBVIOUS he was still hurt, his ERA was 3.5 through four games with a 1-1 record.

-sidebar54

this comment got me going simply because i am tired of many on here giving him a free pass, making excuses and generally replying the way sidebar 54 did...

simply because a guy comes up and ds ok in the majors doesnt mean hes a good prospect.
look at the entire body of work.

hurley at AAA:
26 Starts
148 IP
6-12
5.10 era
4.84 Defense Independent Component ERA
57 bb:131 k
28 HR allowed
9.18 h/9
1.7 hr/9
7.96 k/9
1.41 whip

hurley in MLB:
5 starts
24.2 ip
1-2
5.47 era
9 bb:13 k
5 HR allowed
9.47 h/9
1.82 hr/9
4.7 k/9
1.42 whip

5 MLB starts:
1- 6 ip, 0 bb, 3k, 2 hr - 92 pitches - 4 gb: 13 fb
2- 5 ip, 2 bb, 5k, 1 hr - 106 pitches - 4 gb: 7 fb
3- 6 ip, 3 bb, 1k, 0 hr - 88 pitches - 6 gb: 13 fb
4- 5.2 ip, 2 bb, 3k, 0 hr - 102 pitches - 3 gb:9 fb
5- 2 ip, 2 bb, 1k, 2 hr - 50 pitches - 2 gb:6 fb

recieved 4.09 runs of run support

game scores for his 5 starts:

game scores work like this:
a pitcher STARTS with 50 pts
+1 for each out recorded
+2 for each inning after the 4th
+1 for k
-2 for hits allowed
-4 for ER allowed
-2 for unearned allowed
-1 for bb

1- 47
3- 52
3- 50
4- 56
5- 23

from Josh Kalks Pitch FX site: http://baseball.bornbybits.com/2008/Eric_Hurley.html

Similarity Scores Sim Score
1 Claudio_Vargas 99.22
2 Ron_Villone   98.53
3 Ian_Snell   98.48
4 Braden_Looper 98.3
5 Sean_Henn  98.29
6 LaTroy_Hawkins 98.09
7 Romulo_Sanchez 98.01
8 Brad_Hennessey 97.94
9 Garrett_Olson 97.7
10 Kelvin_Jimenez 97.64

(Scott Lucas on hurley/PitchFX: http://www.rangers.scottlucas.com/archives/2008/07/pitchfx_on_eric.html)

general trends:

year level era k/9 bb/9 whip hr allowed
2006 a+ 4.11 9.48 2.86 1.23 12
(20) aa 1.95 7.54 2.68 0.86 4
2007 aa 3.25 7.71 2.74 1.11 13
(21) aaa 5.28 7.24 3.44 1.27 13
2008 aaa 5.30 8.68 3.50 1.54 15
(22) majors 5.47 4.74 3.28 1.42 5

era has consistantly gone up since 2006
k/9 have gond down since 2006 with a blip at AAA this year
bb/9 have gone up since 2006
always allowed HR

prospect comparison:
this year - pitchers in rangers community top 10 (not goign to compare feliz)
2. neftali feliz
3. eric hurley
7. michael main
8. blake beavan
10. kasey kiker

michael main
(last year)
18- rookie: 12 ip, 1.42 era, 6bb:16k, 1 hr, 1.18 whip
18- loA: 15 ip, 4.70 era, 7bb:18k, 1 hr, 1.37 whip
(this year)
19- rookie: 13 ip, 3.38 era, 5 bb:15 k, 1 hr, 1.05 whip
19- loA: 28 ip, 2.25 era, 12bb:28k, 1 hr allowed, 1.25 whip

loA 43 ip, 3.47 era, 19bb:46k, 2 hr, 1.31 whip

blake beavan
19- loA: 102 ip, 2.28 era, 17bb:60k, 9 hr, 1.01 whip

kasey kiker:
18- loA: 53 ip, 4.39 era, 38bb:52k, 5 hr, 1.59 whip
19- A: 96 ip, 2.90 era, 41bb:112k, 10 hr, 1.30 whip
20- hiA: 102 ip, 4.30 era, 29bb:90k, 11 hr, 1.35 whip (103 hits)

hurley:
18- loA: 28 ip, 5.40 era, 6bb:21k, 6 hr, 1.31 whip
19- A: 155 ip, 3.77 era, 59bb:152k, 11 hr, 1.25 whip
20- hiA: 100 ip, 4.11 era, 31bb:106k, 12 hr, 1.23 whip (92 hits)

overall:
18- hurley = least IP, highest ERA, highest hr/9, fairly even whip (1.31 vs 1.01 vs 1.59 vs 1.31)
19- hurley = more IP (by a lot), higher ERA, same HR allowed, lower whip by .05
20- hurley = even IP, hurley .19 lower ERA, 16 more k, 2 more bb, .10 higher whip

18- beavan/main were better (remember main would have been BA's #1 prospect in his loA league had he had the IP)
19- probably hurley (higher ip/k, everything else about even)
20- hurley slightly better at baskerfield, pitched well at frisco

hurley vs harrison:

hurley:
18- loA: 28 ip, 5.40 era, 6bb:21k, 6 hr, 1.31 whip
19- A: 155 ip, 3.77 era, 59bb:152k, 11 hr, 1.25 whip
20- hiA/AA: 138 ip, 3.52 era, 43bb:137k, 16 hr, 1.13 whip
21- AA/AAA 162 ip, 4.00 era, 55bb:135k, 26 hr, 1.18 whip
22- AAA: 74 ip, 5.30 era, 29bb:72k, 15 hr, 1.54 whip

minors: 108 games, 26-23, 580 ip, 3.97 era, 197bb:534k, 68 hr, 1.24 whip, faced 2250 batters

harrison:
18- rookie 66 ip, 4.09 era, 10bb:49k, 3 hr, 1.24 whip
19- A: 167 ip, 3.23 era, 39bb:118k, 17 hr, 1.08 whip
20- A+/AA: 158 ip, 3.36 era, 33bb:114k, 12 hr, 1.22 whip
21- AA: 116 ip, 3.39 era, 34bb:78k, 6 hr, 1.30 whip
22- AA/AAA: 84 ip, 3.44 era, 28bb:55k, 6 hr, 1.39 whip

minors: 112 games, 30-22, 630 ip, 3.44 era, 144bb, 447k, 41 hr, 1.23 whip, faced 2175 batters

overall, the only stat in which hurley is "better" is k's (by a fairly wide margin)
are about equal in whip, starts (101 vs 105)
harrison has allowed less walks (by a large margin), and has a better era (also by a fairly large margin) and allowed fewer HR in more IP

harrison also faced fewer batters in 50 more IP...for what thas worth

---

here are my questions:
-what has he done the last 2 years (2007 in aa/aaa and 2008 in aaa/majors) to show he is still a top prospect?
-does his "stuff" make him ranked that high (ie: beavans slider coming out of HS, feliz FB - verlanders stuff w/o control coming out of college) - no. he has no plus-plus pitches. does he have multiple plus pitches?
-i know harrison is seen as a "control" guy and that has gotten him through the minors, but is his stuff REALLY that much better than hurleys?

i think it is fairly clear by his AAA stats that he hit a wall at AAA. i understand his high ranking at AA but after he hit AAA he was still seen as the savior. the next FOTF.

however it seems that MANY people on this board simply stopped watching after he went from AA to AAA.

as the #3 prospect, ahead of guys like andrus, MaxRam, smoak and the other pitchers listed he IS the most overrated prospect in our organization.

who else comes close?
andrus- age + finally hitting
maxram- still plus-plus bat
smoak- expected to be gg/middle of the order hitter
main- was hurt last yr, #1 pick
beavan- signed late, low ks
teagarden- plus glove, low BA
kiker- short, lefty
harrison- injury prone
beltre- very young
borbon- cant take a walk

imo he shuold be in the 7-10 range.

ahead of him: davis, feliz, andrus, maxram, smoak, main, beavan and in same area as teagarden/kiker/harrison

hurley- give up lots of fly balls and HR, not a high K rate, not a great bb/9 rate. WHAT is the justification for having him ahead of guys like andrus, maxram, the #11 pick this year, a guy who would have been the top prospect in both his leagues last year, bevan?

for that matter, what has he done to be ahead of teagarden? harrison?

what other prospect do we have that is THIS overrated? simple answer: we dont.

---

this said, dont think im saying the guy is a bum and should be cut from the 40 man roster tomorrow...because im not. im just saying...hes not a #1. hes not a #2. hes probably not a #3 unless his k's go up. hes probably a #4 or #5 and if hes a solid #4 or #5 then i am ok with that.

(sorry its so long/stats/etc - been thinking about this forever as it is and finally decided to put it all together)

my main point is that as the #3 prospect on a top 5 farm system he is being grossly overrated by many people on LSB. to clarify, im not saying hes an overrated pitcher, or that hes a bad pitcher. im saying hes an overrated #3 prospect. ...sorry for the confusion.