SB Nation User Blog: kosmo99

Why the Rockies hit better at Coors (data)

kosmo99 — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 16:34:49 -0000

I have been trying to determine if the Rockies have a significantly different LD rate at home vs. road. To me, this would indicate a Coors Hangover with breaking balls (they would break more sharply on the road, and the Rockies would need to adjust for that after seeing flat breaking balls at home).

I found what I needed in baseball-reference.com's PI section (pay). I took the raw data and massaged it to force it to give up its secrets.

Here is the data. Strikeouts, bunts, and fielder's choices are excluded from the rates. There were only 8 FC all year, so they are statistically insignificant. Bunts were excluded because the hitter is not trying put good wood on the ball. Since I only included at bats, sac flies are not included (they are PAs, but not ABs)

Without further ado:

5557 total at bats.
Overall
4270 full swing BIP
Ground: 1861 - 43.6%
Fly - 1499 - 35.1%
Line: 910 - 21.3%

Home:
2153 full swing BIP
Ground: 906 - 42.1%
Fly - 751 - 34.9%
Line - 496 - 23%

Road:
2117 full swing BIP
Ground: 955 - 45.1%
Fly: 748 - 35.3%
Line: 414 - 19.6%

Analysis:
3.4% more balls in play are hit for line drive in Coors than on the Road. Line drive are very commonly hits (I haven't calculated BA for the various types yet) so the extra LDs are going to boost BA and slugging.

Also, Rockies hitters struck out 651 times on the road vs. 549 on the road. It seems logical that this is due to more sharply breaking moving pitches, although there might be other explanations.

The extra 100 BIP at home (due to the fewer Ks) would result in 30 extra hits (assuming a BABIP of .300) - or an extra 0.4 hits/game.

I have not run the numbers for any other teams, so I'm not sure if this is a typical home/road split of not. I'll probably run the numbers for the rest of the NL West to get a decent baseline.

I'll calculate the numbers for each player when I get time.

Check out my blog (http://somecasualobservations.blogspot.com) for articles on baseball and other subjects.

Where are they going to go?

kosmo99 — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 14:03:12 -0000

Assuming that the Rockies become sellers, where will the players go?

Everyone should feel free to chime in with their thoughts. Throw in some predictions of the players/prospects you think the Rockies will get, if you feel like it.

Fuentes - Devils. I keep hearing Bo Sox, Yankees, and Devils. The Devils are loaded with prospects, and I can see them pulling off a couple of trades to make a run. After all, how often are you going to have a chance to make a playoff run in a division with the Yankees and BoSox.

Holliday - I can see Holliday hanging around until the offseason, and I could also see him getting traded. I wouldn't be shocked to see the A's grab him for a playoff run, and cash him in for compensatory picks at the end of 2009.

Atkins - Haven't heard any rumors in a while, and I've mostly been hearing Cleveland. So I'll say that Atkins goes to the Indians.

Shouse baseball cards

kosmo99 — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 16:56:58 -0000

First, I'll admit that I'm an interloper in this forum - I'm a Rockies fan.

However, I am a big fan of one particular Brewer - reliever Brian Shouse. Brian's brother is a friend of mine (we work for the same company).

Anyway, I've been looking to acquire some of Brian's baseball cards. At this point, I have 0 cards, so I'd be happy to obtain any run of the mill cards. I'm willing to pay for the cards (a small premium - I won't pay $1 a card or anything crazy like that). Or I'd be willing to trade Brewers cards for Shouse card. I think I even have a few Pilots cards for those who are really interested in the history of the franchise.

I'd prefer to work with folks who might have a few dozen cards of Shouse (to avoid pay $1 postage for a 5 cent card).

The cards don't necessarily have to be of Brian with the Brewers - any cards would be great.

Championship collectibles

kosmo99 — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 23:49:27 -0000

Does anyone have extras of the trophy and ring that they are looking to sell? I'm trying to find one on eBay, but it would be nice to buy one from someone here and cut out the eBay and Paypal middlemen (eliminating the ebay and paypal fees for the seller). I'm guessing that there are several other Rockies fans who want to buy one of these. Why not keep the trophy "in the family"? :)

NL West

kosmo99 — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 23:45:34 -0000

On April 28th, the Rockies were 10-16, 9 games behind the front running Diamondbacks (19-7)

After struggling mightily and recording a 12-22 record in games since April 28th, the Rockies are 22-38.

10 games behind the first place Diamondbacks (32-28).

While it is true that we have missed a golden opportunity to make up ground on the snakes, we're really not in much worse shape than we were on April 28th ... except that 5 weeks have fallen off the calendar (and the injuries).

Hopeless optimism - perhaps. But if we can't make the playoffs, hopefully we can at least rally to finish within a respectable distance of the first place team in the division.

Let's keep the wins coming and make a run!

Alternate Rockies news

kosmo99 — Wed, 28 May 2008 13:09:14 -0000

I participate in a simulation baseball league (fake players, the computer simulates the games, player development, etc). There are 32 people in the league (we have expanded to Vegas and Indy), spread widely across the US and Canada - literally from sea to shining sea.

I spent 1.5 years as the Braves (somebody left and there was an opening, so I jumped in). Then the Rockies became available and I immediately jumped ship - in the middle of the season.

Under my leadership, the Rockies quickly righted a meandering ship and made the playoffs in 2028 and 2031 and narrowly missed in 2030 (lost a tiebreaker) and 2032 (missed by 1 game). We're currently in the midst of the 2033 season (we play 5-6 seasons in a calendar year). We're 3.5 games back of the front running Dodgers. We have a shot, but our ace (Travis Wolf) just went down with an injury and will be out for a couple of months.

Last night was the draft. I submitted several Rockies related names to the commish. Roy Tulowitzki, a good hitting, slick fielding SS, went #1 overall to the Yankees. SP Maury Wimberly went #19 to my Rockies. RF Jackson Holliday went #26 to the Devil Rays. SP Lane Lindsay went to Cleveland at #34. Rory Wimberly (twin of Maury) went to my Rockies at #41. I actually didn't "reach" for the Wimberlys - they were simply the best available value.

We also picked up SS Brandon Mullins at #20. He's a great contact hitter with decent pop. He will likely be shifted to 2B to replace to aging OBP machine Jamie Caboe.

Just thought some folks might like some positive Rockies news :)