Early Season Rotation & Minute Distribution

krollb — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 04:24:13 -0000

I've been a longtime lurker, but this is my first post to BlazersEdge.

I've been giving a lot of thought to the roster and distribution of minutes for the upcoming season. We have a wealth of young talent that need minutes to develop, but the time to win is also upon us. I'm not sure that these goals are mutually exclusive, but they certainly present challenges to one another.

In thinking about the roster I started to play with what my ideal distribution of minutes would be if I were coaching the team. It quickly became apparent that the rotation needs to be no more than 10 deep, even if our roster goes deeper. It also became clear that you would need to look at the season in pieces, I would hope that some of the younger players will play well enough to demand more minutes as the season moves on.

Here is a look at what I came up with (see larger version here):

As you can see I've taken a look at both total player minutes in a typical 48 minute game, and how I would distribute the minutes by position. At each position the first player listed would be my starter (blue on the charts), with the reserves listed below.

At small forward I would give Outlaw more minutes than Webster, and my thinking at the moment would be to start him as well. I think you could make a strong argument for starting Webster but keeping Outlaw's minutes the same, I would reserve judgment until I could see which mixes better with Rudy in the second unit. The common opinion I hear among Blazer fans is that Outlaw should start, but I could see Webster getting an awful lot of good open looks on the starting unit. If he would be more aggressive in getting to the hole and locking down on the defensive end every time down the floor he could easily gain more minutes. Travis is our x-factor, and if he is working as hard this summer as the propaganda suggests he could be in for another big step forward this season. I'd like to see him be more consistent in his spot up J, and see the floor a bit better.

The power forward position is much clearer and leaves little room for debate. Clearly you want LA on the floor as much as possible, while taking care not to wear him out too early in the season. Frye is an excellent backup, but the simple reality is that he is not going to take minutes from Aldridge. His best bet for more minutes is probably to play well enough to steal a few from Joel at the 5.

In the middle the only real question is how well G.O. can stay out of foul trouble. I expect that to be the primary limiting factor to his minutes, especially early in the season. I took a look at other 5's and dominate 4's that were taken with early lottery picks and found that most average around 35-37 minutes in their rookie season. Based on that I put Oden at 32 for the early part the season with the hope that will improve as the season moves along. Joel figures to be one of (if not the) best backup centers in the league. If the guy ever grew a pair of hands he could be a monster!

The shooting guard position gets interesting. If our young Spaniard comes even close to living up to the hype you have to find him minutes. That, of course, means he and Roy will have to play together. I would be very tempted to try Brandon in a point forward type of role at the 3 if Rudy demands more than 24 minutes a game. For now I'm going forward with the assumption that 24 minutes is reasonable for Rudy, which means Brandon would be playing about 11 minutes a game at the point. I have notched Roy's minutes back just a bit in the interest of preserving him for a very long season.

At the point I would clearly start Blake on opening night. He is very steady, and people forget that he is also a very efficient spot up shooter from downtown (only Webster made more 3's last season). That said, I do see his minutes being reduced by about 7 per game early in the season and probably even more as it goes on. As I've already stated I see 11 minutes a game for Brandon at the 1, which leaves 14 for the rookie. My hope would be that Bayless will command more minutes as the season progresses.

That leaves some interesting names out of the regular rotation. As much as I appreciate what he did for us this past season, it is clear there are just no minutes for Mr. Jones on this roster. It also very clearly shows that if he had remained JJack would have been at best the 10th man, perhaps even the 11th behind Sergio (in place of Bayless in that scenario). Yet another indication of how good a deal the draft day maneuver to obtain Bayless was, getting an excellent prospect without giving up a rotation player. Sergio would be best served by a full season in Idaho if he stays here in my opinion. Put him down there and lets see what he can do with a full season leading a team. (Thanks to jonestr for pointing out in the comments that this is not possible since he cannot be assigned to the DLeague as a third year player.) His confidence level and attitude pretty much guarantee he will not have a place in the Portland rotation next season. (I'm extremely disappointed at his decision to skip Vegas this summer after being dropped form the Spanish Olympic team.) I would also argue the same for the other two young players that are likely to make the 15 man roster; Koponen and Batum. Let them get minutes in the D-League and be ready for the call up in case of injury. That would leave Diogu and the Expiring Contract as the 11th and 12th men on the traveling squad, and Freeland on the outside looking in again.

This has been a very interesting exercise for me. One thing it shows me is there is still some room for some KP tinkering to this roster. Barring unforeseen opportunity (if there is such a thing as something unforeseen by KP) I would tend to vote for letting things be going into the season. I feel that we have a couple of great locker room guys with experience (Blake and Mr. Contract) and some young veterans who are clearly leaders already. If things are going very well and we look like a threat to win a playoff series or two then we pull the trigger on Raef and bring in a big veteran piece at or near the trade deadline. If things are just progressing at a more pedestrian pace or we get bit by the injury bug you give KP a great deal of flexibility to use that cap space to it's best advantage, whether that be at the deadline or in the free agent market next summer. That also gives you a chance to look one last time at the three contracts that need to be dealt with before they come back to haunt us (Webster, Frye, and Diogu) and see how they progress and fit in with Oden, Rudy, and the rest of the new pieces that are in place.

No matter what, I know that I am really looking forward to watching this team along it's journey for the next decade and more. This will be our first season as full season ticket holders (we were on a half season plan), and I can hardly wait to watch games with a playoff atmosphere again in Portland! -Brian

Greg at the Rally in Pioneer Courthouse Square last summer. Check out my flickr set for more.

krollb — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 06:53:38 -0000

Greg at the Rally in Pioneer Courthouse Square last summer. Check out my flickr set for more.

SB Nation User Blog: krollb

Early Season Rotation & Minute Distribution

Greg at the Rally in Pioneer Courthouse Square last summer. Check out my flickr set for more.