Hey there stat nerds.  First off I am by no means a stat guy.  However, I had this notion that main problem with our Hawks this year are one goal games, specifically how the PK influenced the outcome of the one goal game and more importantly standing points. 

Remember I am no statistician. 

I apologize for the hugeness of my tables.  Making them a jpg made them real blurry

Below is the table showing the one goal games to date and all the pertinent info like who the Hawks played and where.  Also included is columns showing allow PPG and score PPG.  These columns are the focus of this analysis.

Here is the data

Here is that data sorted for one goal wins only.

Same data sorted for losses (regardless of the fact that a point was earned)

What does all this mean?

1. 27 of 60 games have ended in a one goal win or loss or 45% of all games (Almost 1/2 the season)

2. 11 of the 27 one goal games resulted in 2 points for Hawks and 0 for opponent or 41%

3. 16 of the 27 one goal games resulted in 2 points for the opponent or 59%

4. 6 of the 27 one goal games resulted in 1 point for Hawks or 22%

Now lets look at how special teams influenced these games.

1. In the one goal game wins Hawks opponents scored PPG in 5 of the 11 games or 45%

2. In the one goal losses Hawks opponents scored PPG in 11 of 16 games or 68% and in the regulation losses (10 games), Hawks have allowed PPG in 7 of those games or 70%.  So, the perentage of opponent PPG during a one goal win is 23% - 25% lower than in the one goal loss

Something interesting of note is the Score PPG column.  It is my assumption that when the Hawks score a PPG the outcome of the game should be in the Hawks favor, but was this the case?  It does not apper to be so in the one goal games this season based on this data. 

1. PPG in 6 of 11 one goal wins or 54%

2. PPG in 8 of 16 one goal losses or 50%

3. PPG in 4 of 10 regulation losses or 40%

4. PPG in 4 of 6 OT/SO losses or 66%

What irks me the most is that if the hawks had scored just 5 more goals during these one goal games, they would have at least 5 more standings points, likewise if they had allowed 5 less goals they would have at least 5 more standings points.

You stat people run the numbers.

Since the season is about to mercifully begin and we shouldn't have to wonder too much longer what is going to happen, I propose the top 10 most annoying things that will be said this season by us and possible others.

1 .  He's the new Ladd, Burish, Versteeg, Niemi, Huet, Buff, Fraser, Sopel (sigh)

2 .  Niemi would have made that save

3 .  Why isn't Buff playing?

4 . Campbell isn't worth his money

5 . Q needs to be fired (this will most likely come from me)

6 . The Hawks cannot beat the Canucks without Buff

7 . We need an enforcer like we had last year with Buff

8 . If Toews is so good, why doesn't he lead the team in points?

9 . John Scott is no Zdeno Chara (no shit)

10 . Shoot the puck Kane, why do you always pass?

Any others?

I know there is supposed to be some magical chemistry between Kane Toews and Sharp, but I don't see it.  Which player on this team would not automatically improve personal stats and look better when inserted with Kane and Toews?

Brouwer Toews Hossa

Sharp Bolland Kane

Ladd Madden Versteeg

Buff Fraser Eager (Burish, Kopecky)

I split up Toews and Kane.  I know blasphemy right? 

Line 2 may be a little week physically, but which line is the other teams checkers going to play?  Play them against Toews' line, Sharp and Kane eat it up.  Play them against Bolland's, Toews and Hossa will lay waste.

Buff.  He's not a 4th liner, but what is he?  He doesn't fit anywhere, so make him fit here and maybe he figures out what he is.  Which defender will want to go in the corner against Eager and Buff?  Not me that's for sure.

On the PP -

PP1 Toews Kane Brouwer Hossa Campbell  (Umbrella)

PP2 Bolland Versteeg Sharp Keith Seabrook (std PP formation)

In the off season, we all talked about the glut of forwards, and there is a lot.  It's the combinations that are tough.  I don't envy the coaches situation at all. 

The scoring has been a little lackluster lately and I feel this is a good place to start.

This is what we are supposed to do in a fan post right?

In light of some current fan posts I have read.

Continue reading this post »

Why are we all so fired up about Burish coming back?  Is it his personality or his hockey playing?

Continue reading this post »

Quenneville

What was the deal with the line shake ups against Vancouver?  They didn't work.  Keith and Seabrook need to be together.  Blackhawks were in 2nd place in the conference, substantially better than last year.  Anti-Huet was in the net and Q decides to move people around?  Holy Sheepdip!  I can't believe none of you have said anything about this yet. 

Huet

Did anyone else notice that while Luongo is having a sub par start, even though he always starts slow, but that he was in the net for this game.  There was no knee jerk reaction from whatever their coaches name is.  And he won.  The team shows confidence in Luongo, no matter what.  Huet has his weaknesses, but he is the #1 goalie on this team.  Show the guy that you have confidence in him and he will respond.  I mean come on, do you really think the Balckhawks can win this thing with Anti-Huet?  Or Crawford?  Not a chance.

Belfour

Nobody else has said this so here it is.  Belfour is available, might as well, he never won either, but McDonenough could sell some old shirts.