SB Nation User Blog: labill

5 Positives in the Loss

labill — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:52:25 -0000

There weren't many positives, but I'll try to identify 5:

1. Nic Harris as LB. He looks like a LB -- has he gained size? He seemed to be all over the place (probably not a good sign for the DL). Perhaps his future at LB is starting as of this game. Certainly more meaningful than Palmer in the first few games.

2. Fred Jackson as K/PR. Really looks like a patient returner. He moves so fluidly in the beginning part of his return to find the right hole. I think it works better than Parrish's freak, juke, twist and mad scramble -- one man show. I am thinking that it helps the special team unit (re: penalities) to know that he is running with the squad and that he will follow their path.

3. Pozluzny. Seemed like he was an island a lot of the time, left to chase and tackle on his own. Speed showed, just need others with him.

4. Florence. Props again for DF. Johnson really didn't do much, and Florance just adds size and close coverage even when they catch. On the same note, McGee didn't look his usual self in tackling -- perhaps his injury still bothers him.

5. Byrd. Of course. His interceptions are mistakes by the other side -- but that is what opportunities are all about. Every time he INTs, I think of Donte cringing and saying he could have done that -- no, Donte, you wouldn't have been looking at the ball, you would have been trying to make a ESPN highlight pounding hit on the receiver (and forego the INT).

5 Positives in the Loss

labill — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 18:27:29 -0000

Well, I said last week that in every loss, I would try to come up with 5 legitimate (non-joking) positives to hang on to. This week is going to be pretty hard, just like every loss.

1. Jarius Byrd is all over the place. He is a perfect FS. Even putting aside the INT (should have been the game changing, winning play), he seemed to be in on a lot of plays.

2. Keith Ellison deserves apologies from his doubters. He has been very dependable, and often the last line of defense that, if not for him, would result in a big offensive play by the opponent.

3. Terrence McGee is a legit top corner. He proves that every week. That was a great extension signing -- I questioned it at first because of our overload in young, talented CBs, but I was wrong.

4. Brian Moorman. Boy, I hate that he is alway in the top 5. That's not good.

5. Drayton Florence. Had to go over the list of players and tagged him over McIntyre (!). I like Florence -- I think he does a better job than McKelvin. He seems to be good in coverage and in run support.

5 Positives in the Loss

labill — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 16:31:01 -0000

Every time the Bills lose (yes, it happens a lot), I get so depressed that I don't want to read anything about the Bills for a couple of days. So, I decided that whenever they lose, I will try to write (find) 5 positive things I saw in the game (I didn't appreciate the BillsDaily's (Bogyo) "Bright Side" blog).

1. Parrish is being used much better by having him KR, as well as PR. He looked pretty good (and, frankly, since we lost so badly, we didn't waste one of his big returns in this game). This saves our more regular players (Jackson, Reed, McGee), while giving us a better threat to break a big one.

2. Going deep/jump ball is very effective with our two WRs -- it is more productive (and less a INT risk) than to go short with Owens and Evans. We should just do that all the time. Reed is a very dependable slot receiver -- don't use Owens or Evans for the short passes.

3. We have not yet lost to an AFC East team at home. Yes, we needed to beat an East team, and yes, we only have one more away game (with the Jets). I have no answer to those points. But, we have not yet lost to an AFC East team at home (yet).

4. Drayton Florance might be a better CB at this point than McKelvin and was a very good acquisition.

5. Demetirus Bell is a legit Left Tackle. He's certainly our best tackle.

Pro Day Performances

labill — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 22:50:59 -0000

Pro Day Performances

Thought we should identify pro day performances of players the Bills might be interested in. Here is Beckum's day: Beckum Shines at Wisconsin Pro Day Unable to workout at the NFL Combine after still recovering from the broken leg that sidelined him throughout much of his senior season, tight end Travis Beckum helped his stock Wednesday with an impressive performance at the Wisconsin Pro Day. Beckum, who measured in at 6-2 3/4 and 239 pounds, ran the 40-yard dash twice, clocking in between 4.58-4.63 seconds. He also posted a 41" vertical jump and caught the ball well during drills, only dropping one pass. Beckum elected not to lift Wednesday, but he didn't have to after leading all tight ends with 28 reps of 225 pounds at the Combine -- the only drill the Badger standout performed for scouts in Indianapolis. The surprise of the day did not come from Beckum, however, but from junior running back P.J. Hill, who has dropped about 20 pounds since the end of the season and impressed scouts with his new build. At 5-10 1/8 and 218 pounds, Hill was clocked in the mid 4.6s. Unlike Beckum, however, Hill struggled a bit in pass-catching drills. Linebackers Jonathan Casillas and DeAndre Levy did not workout. Each is coming off of a knee injury and is expected to workout for scouts April 2nd.Reports had between 25-28 teams attending the Pro Day, with the Bengals, Broncos, Bucs, Chargers, Dolphins, Falcons, Giants, Jaguars, Lions, Packers, Patriots, Lions, Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, Texans and Vikings among them.

Questions and Concerns

labill — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 16:26:40 -0000

I am just an avid fan -- and I really appreciate the others on this board who know much more (and can see/analyze more) than I can when watching a game. I have a few random questions and concerns that I appreciate your guys' thoughts on:

(1) I did not see Kelsey make one play. Did I miss it? Maybe when Schobel gets back, we put Denney on the other side. I guess Ellis is just a complete dud since he sees virtually no action even when there is a shortage of DEs.
(2) Is Stroud fading each week? He really shined in the first few weeks and now seem very ordinary. Is he missing Schobel that badly? Johnson also seems to have lost his energy when he comes in.
(3) Schobel really is missed -- I guess he really is the only Pro Bowler on the defense (I never thought I would say this because I thought he was overrated).
(4) Poz seems to be blocked easily. He now can't shed a tackle and they go right at him. Is this something the offenses are figuring out?

(5) Where are the blitzes? Veek or Scott seem to be very effective, but against an 'ol Farve and an ('ol Pennington; also, an 'ol Warner), I didn't think they blitzed much at all -- and oddly the short passes still worked wonders for them. Poz seemed like a poor blitzer, and Veek performs better when he is asked to do special things and not just stay back.
(6) Whitner just seems a bit lost -- does he have too many responsibilities he is shouldering (no pun intended)?

(7) Should the Bills just cut McIntyre?

(8) Why don't we do any reverses with Parrish? I would think he would be the one guy in the league who is ideal for that (especially since he appears to be a below average receiver).

(9) We need to go long on offense a few times -- isn't that what gives opportunities for the short passes? Did the Jets basically cheat-up the safeties because we have fallen in love with the short-accurate passes of Edwards? Even our "long" runs (did we have any?) were fairly short because of this.

Fine tuning this great team

labill — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 15:06:19 -0000

A few player personnel moves for thought (not about actual play calling, since I defer to others who are much more knowledgable). I say these half in jest, but this team is very special and such a team should always think about fine tuning:

1. Activate Chris Ellis and give him some time by subing out Schobel. Kelsey and Denny are doing their part. Schobel has disappeared. I don't recall any plays that Schobel made -- and I don't recall Schobel anywhere near my tv when Steven Jackson was running. Ellis is apparently good at putting the pressure on the QB. We get more pressure from the LBs (Poz, Veek), DTs (Williams, Johnson) and DBs (Youboty, Whitner, Scott) then Schobel. Love to get a Ron From NM type of play by play analysis of Schobel (is he being double teamed a lot -- I frankly didn't see too many of that).

2. Bench Peters until after the bye (I guess that means only the Arizona game). Pretty obvious to me -- if we lost any/all the last 3 games, he would have been the main goat in each one of them. Also, that will put him in his place for pulling the hold out stunt. Move Walker back to LT and Chambers to RT until the bye -- work on Peters' fundamentals.

3. Play Jackson along with Marshawn for half the plays; the other half, play one back. Forget the FB for most plays. Instead of opening holes, they just seem to clog and crowd the running lanes. I think Oman should be considered to be deactivated. Didn't Lynch look injured (or just slow to get up) in every play? We have got to preserve him a little.

4. Bench Fowler and see what Duke has. Fowler is a center who always gets pushed back, while the FB eats up valuable open space has made the middle impossible to get through. I think he is handicapping the rest of the OL -- he just can't handle the big DTs, or the fast DTs, or the blitzing LBs. He backs up so quickly that he tackles our own QB. I don't recall too many plays where our RBs got through the middle -- I do recall many plays where our RBs first go to the middle, then has the smarts to decide to better break outside. By the way, Butler always seemed to me to be a candidate for Center -- just an impression I have. Duke just seems so much better than last year. And he is a lot bigger than Fowler. In any event, I think both are in their last year of contract.

5. Bring in a veteran LB. I am really concerned about Corto and Costanzo being the backups (to Ellison!). What happens if Poz or Veek get injured? Our team should not be in the fate of DiGiorgio.

I said before that great teams win games they should lose. They win games they struggle in. They win games through luck and bad luck. They also win by getting better and not being complacent. The opponents see a weakness and they exploit it more and more.

Available Tackles

labill — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 15:52:57 -0000

My quick look at available, experienced OTs (perhaps some of them have been picked up):

Wayne Gandy (Atl), Fred Miller (Chi), Tom Ashworth (Seattle/NE), Stockar McDougle (Jacksonville), Nat Dorsey (Cleveland), Kyle Turley (KC/StL), Todd Steussie. They are all old timers -- perhaps the immediate short term plug we need. I think NE actually picked up 2 veteran OTs in the past few weeks.

I doubt that waiver wires will present much other FAs at this point in the preseason, and we need bodies right now, I guess.

Teyo Johnson or Courtney Anderson

labill — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 17:54:13 -0000

The more I think of it, the more I am getting excited over finding a catching TE from one of Teyo Johnson and Courtney Anderson. They are actually the same player -- same height, (6 foot 6 inches!!!), weight (260-70), catching ability, age (27), Oakland-tradition. Even their performances over the years are about the same (really, lack of opportunity -- perhaps with good reasons). I gather, given the draft and FA acquisitions, that the Bills will choose one of the two to be our receiving TE -- and both these guys are taller, bigger and better catchers than most TEs (its the other stuff they are so flawed at). Johnson has a better bloodline resume (Stanford, 2nd round pick, WR background) and Anderson has better performance in the pros (was he the reason Teyo was benched in Oakland -- but not by much). It will be interesting who comes out as the "extra" wide receiver we have been looking for. My bet is on Teyo Johnson, but I presume the early money is on Courtney Anderson.

New Trade Valuation

labill — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 15:43:33 -0000

I generally agree with MARV's comment that there won't be a lot of trade partners in the early draft. But the new trade charts re-value the picks based on the rediculous contracts of the first 10 picks, so the adjustments in expectation may help.

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/04/15/new-draft-trade-chart/

Also, one area of the draft that has more appeal for a trade up (by another team) is that second level in the 1st round (to get the 2nd best player at a position, for a relatively cheap price (you don't pay top 5 or top 10 money, and the difference between late teens and 11th pick is not so great considering you get the guy you want) -- apparently, a mixture of OT (Albert, Clady, Otah, Williams), RB (Mendenhall, Stewart) and DE/LB (Harvey, Rivers), and CB (any of the top 4) happens to be the very same focus for each of Denver, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, Arizona, Minnesota and Houston. So, moving down a few spots can be the difference between getting the number 1 guy you want and losing him to the team ahead of you.

Possibly more importantly, as the "new" chart would have it, there is a perfect match as to trade values (those teams can give their 1st and 3rd for our pick), that will faciliate the trade. It values the 11th pick at 1,320 points and makes a mid-1st and 3rd rounder a perfect match in points.

As examples, Detroit (looking at say, OT or Mendellhall) and Minnesota (OT or Harvey) are two very good possibilities -- the chart tells us that if we move down about 4 spots in the 1st round with Detroit, we could get their 1st (15 pick) and 3rd (76 pick) -- and the points favors the Bills only a tiny bit (only by 30 points); move down 6 picks with Minnesota, at get their 1st (17 pick) and 3rd (they have two -- 73 pick) -- that favors Minnesota by a tiny bit(only by 25 points).

So, a 3rd round pick is what we could get if we move down a few spots (I think, in the old system, it may have been a 2nd rounder) -- I think we let those teams salivate at (and think of losing) Harvey (move ahead of Denver to "steal" him), Clady/Albert (Carolina might grab him) and Mendenhall, trade down and grab Devin Thomas (we have no choice but grab the best WR we can).

Can we stop with the CB and DE talk

labill — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 15:41:36 -0000

I just want to vent. I agree that CB or Harvey might present the best value over WR. But we really don't have a choice anymore. Can the Bills start spending a little bit of money, picks and attention on our lousy Offense? I will be upset if we use our 1st rounder on a CB or DE -- they may present better value (even much better), but, unfortunately, we have no choice but to get a WR with the 1st pick because our team has absolutely ignored the Offensive side of the ball this post season. First, to start out with, our defense was much better than our offense last year. Secondly, based on the majority of the season, we have already added for this new season, in addition to Stroud, Johnson, Mitchell and James (why does everyone forget we added a starting caliber CB who was sought after by many teams?), the return of Denny, Simpson, Poz from injuries (pretty much missing the entire year), plus a more experienced McCargo, Youboty, Wilson, Wendling -- and we really haven't lost anyone on defense! Harvey, Carson, DMC, McKelvin, Rivers, etc. may all be great, and we SHOULD have been in a position to draft one of these (much) better value guys, but we chose to get cute with our negotiations with the Panda (I know I will get some grief over this statement, since many are now claiming that we actually were not interested in him (but I seem to recall during those 10 days of his free agency, we were all holding our breath, getting a day-to-day status report checking all the internet reports on whether the Panda was signing with the Bills). Frankly, can you imagine how much we would have loved our draft strategy today had the Bills signed the Panda? Given where we are, what about spending the top picks on the offense (where we had not lost anyone to injuries last year (and was still lousy), where we have not added a single decent body in free agency? Not only do we desperately need a WR, we actually have lost Price (our No.2!) and Aiken without replacing them! I realize that we could "steal" a WR in the 2nd round because, in hindsight, say Hardy or someone falls to us (or Jordy Nelson is really a 1st round quality that only the Bills know about and we grab him in the 3rd round) -- my point is that we don't have that luxury anymore (I wish we did). We can't risk not getting a WR who will help us this year. I say that if we don't love a particular WR at 11, move down to the teens (every team from 12 to 17 are looking desperately at either the 2nd rated OT or RB or Harvey or CB), and draft that WR (Thomas or Sweed) with the number one pick. We have no choice. Oh yeah, by the way, we have Evans signed only for this year! We then have to get a TE by the 3rd round. Sorry for my rambling, but I am getting very concerned (because the Bills do odd things) that OBD might be listening to our Carson/Harvey talk. P.S., I actually love Josh Reed.