SBNation.com User Blog: lakeytom

A Rockets fans thoughts on Kyle Lowry

lakeytom — Wed, 08 Aug 2012 21:36:48 -0000

Back in January, I wrote a post on contrasting the games of Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry. It's important to keep in mind that I wrote this at a time when Kyle Lowry was playing absolutely OUT OF HIS MIND, averaging a ridiculous 16.5 ppg, 8.6 apg, 6.6 rpg and 2.1 spg. Reading it outside of that context would be misleading. Kyle Lowry is most definitely not Chris Paul. However, in my opinion, he is definitely a top 10 point guard in this league, and at only 26, has yet to enter the prime of his career.

Anyways, I'm a little late to the party since you guys acquired him weeks ago, but all the same, I thought you guys might enjoy reading this coming from someone who watched every game of Kyle's for the last two seasons. Would love to hear your thoughts on Kyle, the Raptors, Rockets... whatever. The link for the article is below. Enjoy!

http://www.thedreamshake.com/2012/1/24/2725500/kyle-lowry-vs-chris-paul#storyjump

Royce White

lakeytom — Tue, 12 Jun 2012 17:19:36 -0000

Royce White has an imposing 6'8", 270 lb. frame and the court vision and rebounding ability of Lebron James as a rookie (no joke). Some would say his court vision and ball handling rival that of most point guard prospects. That alone makes him a much more than intriguing prospect. Throw in a budding offensive game, which includes a moderately good post game and a jump shot with fantastic shooting mechanics (3P and FT need work but that's easy to fix), and his ability as a serviceable defender and you have a top five talent. He's not the smoothest athlete, but his basketball IQ more than makes up for that deficiency. His ability to be in the right place at the right time is one of his greatest strengths. He rarely has to over-correct because he doesn't make many mistakes on defense. His 95.2 defensive rating (10th in the Big 12) is evidence of this. I should also mention that White led his team in scoring (13.4 ppg; 52% FG), rebounding (9.6 rpg; 17.1%), blocks (1.2 bpg), steals (1.2 spg) and assists (4.5 apg). He was 2nd in the Big 12 in RPG and 2nd in assist percentage (34.5%). This guy has a pure point guard's game in Lebron James' body. All this begs the question: Why the hell is this guy projected to be a late first round, early second round pick? More after the jump.

The answer to this question has everything to do with an anxiety disorder White developed when he was 10 years old. Having both a mother and a sister with chronic anxiety disorders, I have a pretty decent idea of how serious White's condition is. Anxiety disorders are not a thing to be scoffed at as some personal label of weakness. It's a debilitating illness that affects the everyday lives of those afflicted by it. Were the Rockets to draft Royce White, they would have to be comfortable knowing that the best case scenario for White, might be the worst case scenario for the Rockets, and the best case scenario for the Rockets, might be the worst for White. Vague language, I know. Let me explain.

I can assure all of you that White's therapist is not trying to help Royce overcome his anxiety just so he can play basketball and take team flights without worry. Anxiety disorders run much deeper than that. White is trying to figure out how to live without worrying about the implications of every decision he makes, small or large. That includes everyday decisions you and I might take for granted. The decision to have cereal in the morning might carry as much weight as his decision to go to Iowa State instead of Kentucky or Baylor. All this to say that it might come to a point (and I think this would happen sooner rather than later) that White might come to the conclusion that the healthiest possible decision for his life would be to give up playing the game of basketball. If the Rockets aren't comfortable with that possibility, they shouldn't draft him.

Keeping all of this in mind is the proper perspective to have when evaluating White's basketball talent. Drafting White might not work out at all. He might not even play a game with the Rockets, and the draft pick would be completely wasted. It's a very real possibility. My mother gave up being a doctor, making six figures a year, to become a potter, making nothing, because it was better for her overall mental health. On the other hand, think about what a Royce White could mean to this team if he were to get to a point where his anxiety disorder was of little consequence.

White's condition is very serious. However, his top five talent is undeniable, and if the Rockets can get him, I think they should. This is a franchise that has been completely stagnant the last three years (adding one win a year doesn't count as improvement). It's time to take a massive risk on someone like Royce White, who could be a star or a complete bust.

Agree? Disagree? What's everyone's thoughts on Royce? I'm really interested to hear how you guys feel about him.

Poll

Should the Rockets take a chance on Royce White?

No. White's anxiety won't allow him to realize his full potential.

13 votes

Yes. He's way to talented to pass up so late in the first round.

21 votes

No. Trade the entire roster for Anthony Davis.

5 votes

Yes. I don't care what we do as long as we don't draft another role player.

19 votes

58 votes | Poll has closed

ESPN Redraft has Parsons in Lottery

lakeytom — Wed, 21 Mar 2012 17:21:27 -0000

According to ESPN, Daryl Morey got lottery value out of a 2nd round pick in Chandler Parsons, picking him 11th overall in a do-over of this years draft. David Thorpe writes that Chandler's defense is the best he's ever seen on Durant. Pretty high praise. Donatas Motiejunas remains at the No. 20 pick and Marcus Morris moves down to the 18th pick. Link to the article below.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/Rookies-120321/nba-rookie-watch-redraft

Some All-Star Break Numbers

lakeytom — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 00:37:40 -0000

Some All-Star Break Numbers

Jeremy Lin has 20 ball-handling turnovers in his recent 9-game surge. At that rate, he'll rack up around 80 of them by seasons end. To put that number in perspective, Kyle Lowry's total ball-handling turnovers for the entire season is 24 and Chris Paul's is 13 (!!!). If Lin keeps it up, he'll be following in the footsteps of Williams and Westbrook, who've totaled 40 and 55 respectively. Call me crazy, but I'd rather a point guard turn the ball over while trying to thread the needle than while dribbling.

I've compiled some other numbers I find interesting after the jump. If you don't enjoy them, I'm not sure what I'll do with myself.

Some All-Star Break Numbers

I've compiled some other numbers I find interesting after the jump. If you don't enjoy them, I'm not sure what I'll do with myself.

Chris Paul is Really Good

After examining Chris Paul's numbers further, I'm entirely convinced he has the title of the "NBA's Best Point Guard" firmly in his grasp. While I love me some Derrick Rose, his scoring and passing numbers can't compete with Chris Paul's.

Derrick Rose's Scoring and Passing Numbers

By	FG.	FGA	FG%	eFG%	Ast'd	Blk'd	FTM	Pts
Game	7.9	17.1	0.462	0.501	23%	5%	4.8	22.0

3-Pt

Assists

Jump

Assists

Close

Assists

Dunk

Assists

Total

Assists

Passing

T/O's

Assist/

Bad Pass

Passing

Rating

AST48

179

5.6

12.8

10.5

Chris Paul's Scoring and Passing Numbers

By	FG.	FGA	FG%	eFG%	Ast'd	Blk'd	FTM	Pts
Game	7.0	13.9	0.503	0.550	17%	3%	3.2	18.5

3-Pt

Assists

Jump

Assists

Close

Assists

Dunk

Assists

Total

Assists

Passing

T/O's

Assist/

Bad Pass

Passing

Rating

AST48

190

7.3

16.3

12.2

P.S. Lowry is still a better rebounder than every other point guard in the league.

Houston: Where Defense Happens (to be something we're getting better at)

The Rockets are still a mediocre defensive team at 95.9 points allowed per game, good for 19th in the league. However, according to basketball-reference.com, they're 16th in the league in defensive rating at 103.3. As far as I'm concerned, that means one more good defensive performance should bump us up to 15th, and we'll finally be able to call ourselves a mediocre defense. SCORE. Wait... No, don't score.

Clutch Stats

I've never been a Russell Westbrook fan, until I meandered over to 82games to further examine the numbers on him. His passing and turnover numbers are far worse than Paul, Williams, Lowry, Rose and Nash. At 48%, his eFG% is middle of the pack amongst other elite point guards. However, comparing his clutch numbers to other elite point guards reveals his true value.

Chris Paul - Clutch Scoring

By	FG.	FGA	FG%	eFG%	Ast'd	Blk'd	FTM	Pts
48 Min	12.2	29.6	0.412	0.441	0%	3%	13.1	39.2

Kyle Lowry - Clutch Scoring

By	FG.	FGA	FG%	eFG%	Ast'd	Blk'd	FTM	Pts
48 Min	6.9	24.8	0.280	0.380	14%	16%	2.0	20.8

Deron Williams - Clutch Scoring

By	FG.	FGA	FG%	eFG%	Ast'd	Blk'd	FTM	Pts
48 Min	11.3	23.8	0.476	0.571	10%	10%	6.8	34.0

Derrick Rose - Clutch Scoring

By	FG.	FGA	FG%	eFG%	Ast'd	Blk'd	FTM	Pts
48 Min	10.3	38.5	0.267	0.267	0%	20%	5.1	25.7

Russell Westbrook - Clutch Scoring

By	FG.	FGA	FG%	eFG%	Ast'd	Blk'd	FTM	Pts
48 Min	14.6	29.1	0.500	0.556	28%	3%	12.9	45.3

Then again, if Westbrook could play like this in the first 43 minutes of the game, he might not have to be Superman for the last 5.

Equally as impressive is what Chris Paul does in the Clutch without being assisted by any of his teammates. Cross-referencing his clutch shooting numbers with Rose's, who also has gone unassisted during clutch time, reveals just how good Chris Paul is at creating his own shot. Yet another example of what separates Chris Paul from other elite point guards.

Kyle Lowry is disgustingly good from the three point line in clutch time. 82games has his 3P% per 48 minutes of clutch time at .625 on 7.9 attempts per 48 minutes of clutch time. That's good for 14th in the league. However, only two of the 13 players in front of him in that category have a higher 3PA per 48 minutes in the clutch and those two players have each played half as many minutes in clutch time as Lowry, which is perhaps the reason for their inflated 3PA per 48 numbers (Morrow 10.1, Thomas 10.0).

Houston has 4 players shooting 100% from the free throw line in the clutch: Lowry, Martin, Scola and Dalembert. On another note, Parsons might suck at free throws (what's a more intense word for suck?), but he's turned the ball over a total of 0 times in clutch time, a rare feat for a second round draft pick in his first year receiving minutes during clutch time. He's also averaging 7.1 assists per 48 minutes of clutch time, that's good for 3rd among small forwards, behind Paul Pierce and Lebron James. The more I watch this guy, the more he reminds me of Battier. If he continues to develop his defensive skills, he'll be a valuable player in the league for a long time. Drafting the undervalued college senior out of Florida has turned into yet another sparkling bullet on Daryl Morey's resume.

Anyways... Happy All-Star break to all of you. It's time for me to go get faded with my wife in the wine country (one of the many perks of living in California). Live long and Lowry. I look forward to your comments.

Kyle Lowry Vs. Chris Paul

lakeytom — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 18:09:25 -0000

I've been reading this blog for the past four years. I thought it was about time I got myself an account. I'm a Rocket's fan living in Los Angeles, hoping that we'll beat an L.A. team at least once this year. Anyways, being out here, Chris Paul is always on the tube and I watch whenever I can. As much as I love what's going on this year with Kyle Lowry's alarmingly consistent near triple-double stat line, he's still not Chris Paul. While I as much as any one of you wish this wasn't the case, the stats, and the always less credible eye test confirm this all too frustrating notion.

Major Statistical Categories:

Chris Paul: 18.0 ppg, 8.4 APG, 3.0 REB, 2.8 STL, 0.0 BLK, 2.2 TOS, 0.520 FG%, 0.455 3P%

Kyle Lowry: 16.5 ppg, 8.6 APG, 6.6 REB, 2.1 STL, 0.4 BLK, 3.6 TOS, 0.427 FG%, 0.406 3P%

The difference in TOS jumps off the page. Paul and Lowry average nearly the same amount of minutes and assists and their usage rates are also similar (Lowry 23.1%, Paul 21.7%), yet Lowry is still averaging more than a turnover per game. Lowry dominates the ball, but no point guard in the league dominates the ball more than Chris Paul. One would think a point guard that always has the ball in his hands is the more turnover prone, which is simply not the case here. While there is an argument to be made for Kyle Lowry's high turnover average having a lot to due with Samuel Dalembert's delayed acclamation to the Rocket's offense and his terrible hands (can someone check the numbers on how many times one of Kyle's turnovers have been due to Sam Dalembert fumbling one of his passes?), the same argument could be used on Paul. Chris Paul is playing with 12 new players, yet his turnover rate is much lower.

The shooting percentages speak for themselves. Paul shoots the same amount but more efficiently. Their true shooting percentages also reflect this (Lowry .570% vs. Paul .600%). The gap will widen further once Kyle stops nailing his fourth quarter, contested three's so consistently (It has to stop at some point, right? Hopefully it doesn't.) Furthermore, one thing that I've observed from watching Chris Paul is that his assist ratio and high field goal percentages are directly related to his uncanny and arguably unrivaled ability to create space. Paul uses his ability to handle the ball and his powerful lower body to create ridiculous amounts of space that not only make room for his own shot but also open up other options on the floor by causing defenders to over help. His fleecing of the Rockets defense in early January is clear evidence of this. Specifically, watch the plays at 1:40, 2:20 (!!!), 2:43, 4:24 and 5:28.

Defensively, I think these players are equal. Paul's hands might be slightly quicker, but both players are defensive stoppers on the perimeter. They also both make smart, efficient decisions on defense that don't jeopardize team defense. Whether it's contesting a shot instead of going for a block or staying in front of a defender instead of going for risky steals in the passing lanes (ahem... kevin martin...), they always seem to make decisions that help their team. Then again, Kyle Lowry's on-ball defense might be a little better due to his ability to guard the two and smaller three's. There DRtg's this season are fairly similar (Paul's 104 vs. Lowry's 101).

One thing Kyle Lowry has on Chris Paul is his ability to rebound effectively. Does anyone remember Adam Everett?To this day he's still one of my favorite Astros ever (yes, I'm serious). Adam Everett was always consistently under valued by Houston fans because he didn't make spectacular diving plays like Ozzy Smith or Omar Vizquel. It's not that Everett wasn't as good as Ozzy or Omar, it's that he never had to dive for the ball, because he anticipated where the ball was going to be so much quicker than any other shortstop and thus, made everything look way too easy for the most error prone position in baseball. Kyle Lowry rebounds like Adam Everett fields. There is no point guard in the league who is better at judging the flight path of a ball coming off of the basket than Kyle Lowry. It never looks impressive because he's always in the right place at the right time. Seriously, how many of his rebounds seem like they just kind of... come right to him. One thing I'd be interested to find out is in what ways Kyle's uncanny ability to rebound effects the overall play of the rest of the team. For example, how many of Kyle's rebounds lead directly to points on fast breaks? If there's one thing that's true about Kyle, it's that his eyes are always looking down court. When bigs like Dalembert or Hill get the ball they have to come down with it, secure it, find Kyle, give him the ball, and run back down the court. Only at that point is Kyle able to start the offense up. When another player gets the rebound, does it effect his ability to start the fast break? Has anyone ever noticed how often Kyle is frantically calling for the ball from Hill or Dalembert while simultaneously looking down the court to start up the offense? My hypothesis would be that the percentage of made baskets coming on fast breaks off of Kyle's rebounds is higher than any other player's on the team with the exception of Dragic (the dragon is Jedi-like when it comes to finishing at the rim on the break). To sum it up, Chris Paul is a great rebounder for his size; Kyle Lowry is just a great rebounder.

These guys are both great point guards and if Kyle Lowry keeps this up for the entire season, he'll most definitely have cemented his place as a the third or fourth best point guard in the league. Hopefully those ridiculous from-the-parking-lot, contested three pointers will keep falling. Looking forward to hearing what y'all's thoughts are.