SB Nation User Blog: laxtonto

Blake Beavan to AA Frisco

laxtonto — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 15:22:51 -0000

Blake Beavan, the RHP the Rangers drafted out of Irving High in the 2007 first round, has been promoted to Double-A Frisco.

His first start is expected to be Monday in Midland. His first home start in Frisco is expected to be June 20.

Beavan was 5-4 with a 4.30 ERA in 12 starts (73 1/3 innings) for Class A Bakersfield. Beavan had 16 walks and 51 strikeouts and gave up 75 hits. Opponents hit .264 against him. In his last seven starts, Beavan has seven quality starts. He had a complete game, four-hit shutout on May 7 and has allowed 14 runs in his last 49 1/3 innings (2.55 ERA). Clearly, he's been improving.

Link

Looks like he is finally out of the Hell of the California league...

I still can't get over the fact that Bakersfield is 354" to center.

First Day Winners and Losers of the 2009 MLB Draft

laxtonto — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 14:35:21 -0000

Who does everyone consider the biggest winners and losers from Day 1 of the draft?

Right now my 4 "winners" are:

Nationals- Hard to have a bad draft when you draft Strasburg.

Colorado- Matzek and Wheeler in the First Round, Brothers in the Supplemental... NICE, but be ready to break out the checkbook for Matzek. Even is MAtzek doesn't sign, Brothers and Wheeler are a nice first day.

Texas- Purke and Scheppers. Going to be another expensive draft for Texas.

Toronto- Good mix of youth, signability and college players with upside. Best draft out of the teams not going to have to break the bank.

"Losers" are harder to determine.

Phillies first selection seemed to be a major reach...

Pitt is well Pitt... Sanchez? If you are going to waste the #4 pick, atleast shoot for mid round talent not late round talent

Needless to say, If you don't like my "Winners and Losers" then defend your team and tell us why and give your own "Winner and Losers" instead. A little bit of friendly draft chatter is always welcome.

Poll

Who had the best first day of the MLB draft?

Nationals

30 votes

Rockies

83 votes

Rangers

50 votes

Blue Jays

23 votes

Cardinals

17 votes

Other AL

30 votes

Other NL

16 votes

249 votes | Poll has closed

Pitch fx data now avaliable at FanGraphs

laxtonto — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 19:29:27 -0000

Man I love this site. They get better and better..

Just some quick things from this..

Millwood looks to be using his FB way less this year so far

Padilla velocity is down, but it has increased both the vertical and horizontal movement of his pitches

McCarthy's velocity is up on all of his pitches with his change losing the most movement

Harrison's average velocity is down about a 1/2 a mph from last season and he is throwing his FB less than last year.

Fun little toy to use...

Gobble to Texas

laxtonto — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 03:36:37 -0000

Rangers sign Gobble

The Texas Rangers announced late Saturday the signing of free-agent reliever Jimmy Gobble to a minor league contract.

The left-hander, who was released Friday by the Kansas City Royals, will be in big league spring training Sunday. Gobble, 27, is a six-year veteran who was 0-2 with an 8.81 ERA in 31 2/3 innings last year with KC.

The Rangers have two left-handers who are considered locks for the bullpen, former All-Star closer Eddie Guardado and 2008 closer C.J. Wilson. Both of them, however, have suffered from injuries recently.
Wilson had a blister on his middle finger but threw an inning Saturday against Colorado. Guardado has complained of a sore shoulder but has thrown bullpen sessions the past two days.

Link

One mans trash is another mans treasure

The Fallacy of Park Factors and the AL West

laxtonto — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 19:48:08 -0000

As Ranger Fans, we are constantly beaten over our heads with the fact that TBPIA is a decisive advantage for our offense and a hindrance to our pitching staff. Even with Park Factor Data, at first glance Texas has a few major concerns.

Well, contrary to the initial glance, TBPIA is actually fairly consistent with the rest of MLB parks in baseball. There are very few areas that are a concern, such as triples and sacrifices, but as a whole we fall into the "norms" of the rest of baseball.

Now before I get chased out of town as a lunatic spouting gibberish, let me explain how I derived these numbers and more importantly what I learned about the AL West.

Let’s start with getting the Data. I used the 3 year park factor data from 2006-2008. This is available here in Excel 2007 format. I then used some very basic statistical approaches. First derive the mean or average of all the categories. I then derived the standard deviation of each category in the spread sheet as well.

I then subtracted the Park Factor of whatever team I was sampling from the MLB average. Let’s call this that particular team’s distance from the mean At this point it is a simple "IF" function with Excel. If the absolute value of a team’s distance from the mean is greater than or equal to the standard deviation, it fell into the "Fail" category, if not it was "Good".

At one Standard Deviation, this if we assume with our 30 samples that the data is a normal curve, encompasses roughly 68% of all the ballparks In the MLB or 20 ballparks. Texas fell within 1 standard deviation in all but 3 of the 26 categories in the test data. Out of those 3, triples, at bats, and sacrifices, only at bats and triples would have a large effect on the offensive output. Needless to say, runs, RBI's and home runs fell within the "norms" of baseball.

Now it is time for the fun part. Let’s compare that to the rest of the AL West. The Angels home park "Fails" the at bats, hits and walks categories, which is a nice plus to the pitching staff. The Mariners home park "Fails" the games criteria, walks, strike outs, stolen bases, caught stealing, and hit by pitch categories. And then there is Oakland.

McAfee Coliseum is a major advantage, regardless how you break up the numbers. It "Fails" in the at bats, runs, total bases, extra base hits, RBI’s, strike outs, caught stealing, stolen base percentage, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, ground outs and air outs. In any case of how you slice it, that is a huge factor in offensive performance.

Is the BPIA the major problem with the pitching, No. Is the BPIA the reason for the Ranger's offensive success, No. Is our park comparative to most parks in the league, Yes.

All these snide remarks we Rangers fans get beat down with now have a better answer than "No, our pitching really is that bad" or "No, our offense is really pretty damn good". Next time just say that the BPIA falls within one standard deviation of all the major offensive categories, and is easily within the ranges that would be classified as the "norms" of the MLB. If they look at you funny, tell them to go look it up.

If you want the excel file with the formulas or the charts that would be associated with this, email me at laxtonto@hotmail.com and leave a note in the thread to check my email.

Project Prospect top 200

laxtonto — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 04:26:38 -0000

I thought you guys might like this...

Here is the top 20

1 Matt Wieters C Much better power, contact, and walk rates than Longoria in AA; good defensive catcher 22.8 BAL AA

2 David Price LHP From 2007's No. 1 pick to MLB in 15 months; 7.2% BB, 24.3% K in '08, lots of GBs (appx. 54%) 23.5 TB MLB

3 Cameron Maybin CF Nearly replicated A+ (.406 wOBA) numbers in AA (.381); still K'd a ton (26.9%); .179 IsoP 21.9 FLA MLB

4 Colby Rasmus CF After posting .397 wOBA in AA in '07, fell to .324 in AAA in '08; missed time w/ sprained knee 22.5 STL AAA

5 Dexter Fowler CF Olympian had breakout year: career-best .401 wOBA; lots of BBs (12.9%), K's down (17.6%) 22.9 COL MLB

6 Madison Bumgarner LHP Nearly flawless pro debut (29.4% K, 4.0% BB, 2.14 FIP) as the 4th-youngest SP in Low-A 19.6 SF A

7 Brett Anderson LHP Dominated A+/AA last year (6.2% BB, 26.3% K, 57+% GB); Ks rose by 4.7% from A+ to AA 21.1 OAK AA

8 Travis Snider LF/DH .361 wOBA across 4 levels in '08; lots of power, BB's, K's; could see regular time in bigs in '09 21.1 TOR MLB

9 Jason Heyward RF 6-foot-4, 220-pounder had .377 wOBA, 9.7% BB, not too many K's (14.7%) last year in Low-A 19.5 ATL A+

10 Pedro Alvarez 3B High upside hitter w/ power + patience; missed time in '08 (contract disputes/broken hamate) 22.0 PIT NCAA

11 Mike Moustakas 3B Tale of two havles in '08; pre all-star: .228/.285/.386, post all-star: .321/.392/.557; .343 wOBA 20.4 KC A

12 Derek Holland LHP One of biggest breakout arms in '08; 27.6% K, 6.8% BB (A/A+/AA); Juco signee in '06 ($100 K) 22.4 TEX AA

13 Tommy Hanson RHP Power arm who had mediocre '08 walk/ground ball rates (27.8% K, 10.0% BB in AA; 410 TBF) 22.5 ATL AA

14 Matt LaPorta RF/LF Went .279/.386/.539 ('08); plenty of power (.260 IsoP), 11.3% BB; slowed once traded to Tribe 24.1 CLE AA

15 Neftali Feliz RHP Posted awesome 32.7% K in A (25.4 in AA), but BB% rose from 8.6 to 12.4 (324 TBF vs. 185) 20.8 TEX AA

16 Justin Smoak 1B No. 11 overall pick had .372 wOBA (62 PA) in Low-A; .450 wOBA, 40% XBH in 48 AFL PA 21.9 TEX A

17 Rick Porcello RHP Top paid '07 prep arm managed 6.3% BB, 13.7% K, and 65% GB as 5th-youngest player in A+ 19.8 DET A+

18 Lars Anderson 1B All he did was follow .398 wOBA showing in Cal League with .415 wOBA in Eastern League 21.1 BOS AA

19 Jarrod Parker RHP K% doesn't wow you? Notice that Ks rose steadily from 19.4% in April to 30.6% in August 19.9 ARI A

20 Trevor Cahill RHP Stellar strikeout/ground-ball pitcher; command will determine if he peaks as a No. 1 or No. 3-4 21.0 OAK AA

Link

I count 14 in the top 200..

12.Holland

15 Feliz

16 Smoak

58. Elvis

59 Main

61 Max Ram

83 Teagarden

84 Martin Perez.... They have him down as Atlanta

87 Kiker

103 Beavan

104 Boscan

111 Borbon

166 Beltre

183 Lemon !!!!

Just for you Dirk

National Pastime Almanac 1876-2008

laxtonto — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 22:26:49 -0000

I found this the other day while visiting a few other baseball boards..

It is a pretty easy to use MLB stat database that is totally free to download.

http://nationalpastimealmanac.com/

It goes from 1876-2008 for MLB data with a lot of interesting search features that allow you to look for best multiple seasons or best single season for pitcher, hitter or manager. Sorry guys, no OPS+ or any advanced stats, but it is still great to play around with

Such as:

Who was the last guy to win 20 games in back to back seasons? Roy Oswalt before him Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens and Jack McDowell..

Who was the only guy to get HBP more than 30 times in back to back seasons since 1940? The immortal Jason Kendal..

Did you know that Stan Musial was the only guy to OPS over 1,000 in back to back season while having 200 or more hits since 1940…

FOF is tied for 7th since 1940 in consecutive seasons with at least 20 GIDP with 3? And his streak is still active… he could tie Julio Franco and Miguel Tejeda in a few years.

Did you know Eddie Murray leads all players since 1940 in number of hits in their 1st 3 professional seasons? Mark Texiera was 6th.

Pete Rose and Chipper Rose are tied at .309 for top BA for the first 10 years of a career.

There are only 8 players since 1940 to acquire 2,000 K in their first 10 seasons combined.

Who where they?

Don Drysdale, Bob Gibson, Nolan Ryan, Fergie Jenkins, Tom Seaver, Bert Blylevan, Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez…

So if you find anymore nice little nuggets of information, feel free to throw them in here.

USA Today's 100 Names You Need to Know: Rangers

laxtonto — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 01:46:09 -0000

3. Chris Davis, 1B, Rangers: Davis' age — he turns 23 next month — his home ballpark and his generally boffo debut in 2008 bode well for what should be a strong first full season. His strikeout total at three levels last year was alarming, but his contact should improve with experience, and Hank Blalock's shift to DH should give him sufficient at-bats to improve his power numbers.

7. Taylor Teagarden, C, Rangers: Barring a trade, Teagarden, 25, will complete with Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Max Ramirez for at-bats at catcher, with Teagarden being a slight favorite to earn the starting nod. A member of the University of Texas' 2005 national title team, Teagarden might be the most well-rounded of the group, offering a potent bat with above-average receiving and throwing skills. He struggled at two minor league levels last season, but that could be attributed to injuries. After a stint in the Beijing Games, he thrived in September in his second big-league stint.

26. Max Ramirez, C, Rangers: There's more to Ramirez than that highlight play where he completed a double play from his knees after being steamrolled at the plate. The 24-year-old Venezuelan also has pop in his bat and a sense of the strike zone. He's not a polished receiver, though, and could become trade bait with the Rangers already having two highly regarded young catchers in Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden.

43. Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers:

SPARKPLUG: Excitement may overcome game's rough spots

46. Neftali Feliz, P, Rangers: Feliz is only 20 but moving fast, thanks in large part to his overpowering fastball, which reaches 100 mph. The right-hander was acquired from the Braves in 2007 as part of the Mark Teixeira trade and has emerged as one of the game's top pitching prospects. Team President Nolan Ryan, another guy known for lighting up radar guns, has even gotten involved in Feliz's development. Feliz will probably open the season at Class AAA but could get called up during the first half.

66. Matt Harrison, P, Rangers: Given his internal numbers, Harrison, 23, posted perhaps the most improbable 9-3 season in recent memory. But away from hitter-friendly Arlington, Harrison was a respectable 4-1 with a 4.70 ERA. If he can improve at home, Harrison, a lefty acquired in the 2007 Mark Teixeira deal, could fit in nicely at the back of the Texas rotation.

86. Joaquin Arias, SS, Rangers: Arias, 24, had shoulder surgery in 2007 that limited his arm strength in 2008, and the emergence (and apparent anointing) of Elvis Andrus as the shortstop of the present and future casts Arias' role in doubt. Assuming Andrus pans out, Arias will have upside, possibly as a super-utility player.

Link
Interesting list of guys that aren't necessarily main stream names yet, but are all capable to bust out into the national spotlight.

Zack Greinke news

laxtonto — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 17:59:46 -0000

Time to hear hearts breaking all over the Newberg report and LSB..

According to several different news reports in the KC area, Zack Greinke signed a 4 year extension with the KC royals. The supposed new deal covers his last 2 years of arbitration and buys out the first 2 years of free agency. Press conference at 2:30.

Sorry guys, you got to grow your own Aces it seems like, becasue there are not going to be any front of the rotation starters under team control on the trade market.

The Royals reached agreement Monday morning with right-handed pitcher Zack Greinke on a four-year contract that buys out his first two seasons of free-agent eligibility.

Financial terms were not immediately available.

The deal comes after Greinke, 25, produced a breakout season in 2008 by going 13-10 with a 3.47 ERA in 32 starts. He achieved career highs in numerous categories, including victories, innings and strikeouts.

Greinke had sought $4.4 million through arbitration before agreeing to the multi-year contract. The Royals had offered $3.4 million. He made $1.4 million last season.

Link

Thanks for the link Rodney

Jim Callis Chat Rangers related 1-21-09

laxtonto — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 05:44:10 -0000

Arnie New York: Jim, who reaches the majors first and do you think it will be this year. Justin Smoak, Gordon Beckham or Matt LaPorta? Thanks for taking my question.

Jim Callis: LaPorta, because he's further along. I think he'll be in Cleveland before the all-star break.

Matt (DC): Can you help me rank some minor league pitchers who are fairly close to the majors? How do Chris Tillman, Justin Holland, Jordan Zimmermann and Carlos Carrasco compare?

Jim Callis: On my personal Top 50 list for the Handbook, I put Holland at No. 28, Tillman at No. 31 and Zimmermann at No. 35. I didn't rank Carrasco, who would fall in the 51-70 range for me.

Mike(Charlotte): Hey Jim, love your work. Tell me about Elvis Andrus, will he start att SS from opeing day, what can we expect this year and in the future from him? .280-10hrs-30sb and great defense?

Jim Callis: I talked about Andrus a lot in the last Ask BA column I wrote, which I will link to here. I like Andrus, but I'd let him spend half the year in Triple-A because he's just 20. He doesn't have that kind of power yet and I wouldn't expect him to hit a ton in his first year int he majors.

No Coke (Pepsi): AL East over AL West in divisional farm system strength?

Jim Callis: The Rangers and A's are dragged down by the Angels and Mariners.

Kevin (Las Vegas): If you blend your AL & NL Top 10s posted on BA.com, where do Bumgarner, Feliz, Hanson, Anderson, Cahill rank?

Jim Callis: My top five minor league pitchers and their rankings on my personal Top 50: Bumgarner No. 4, Anderson No. 7, Cahill No. 8, Feliz No. 9, Hanson No. 10.

Brett (Mount Prospect, IL): Justin Smoak or Chris Davis?

Jim Callis: Like them both a lot, I'll go with Smoak.

Nothing earth shattering, but decent info regardless