SB Nation User Blog: lee3022

NBA Refs are dirty - FBI

lee3022 — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 04:59:46 -0000

The New York Daily News has published an interview with Philip Scala, recently retired FBI supervisor who uncovered Donaghy's betting scheme and headed the task force that investigated Donaghy's claims. Scala believes Donaghy told the truth, including about the NBA having other refs that are dirty.

Philip Scala, the recently retired FBI supervisory special agent in charge of the Gambino squad, which uncovered Donaghy's scheme of betting on basketball games he had officiated, said he believes the disgraced referee's claims that other refs were dirty.

This has been hashed about some before about believing or disbelieving David Stern's assertion that there are no other refs doing illegal gambling on NBA games. Since Mr. Scala is now retired he can presumably speak more freely about the investigation.

Scala said he was not merely offering his opinion of the disgraced referee, rather it was his informed assessment of his credibility after his unit - officially known as C-16 - conducted an exhaustive investigation.

What do you think happens next? Maybe a congressional investigation of the NBA? How can this not create a stir? Do you believe Donaghy now with Scala's support?

US Players abroad pay taxes to US

lee3022 — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 21:55:21 -0000

There has been much discussion about Josh Childress taking a contract in Greece this year including that his income is tax free. This may not be accurate. I assume Greece has waived local income taxes for Josh so this post will not address other countries' taxation. It will attempt to address the IRS regulations on US citizens working and living abroad and paying tax to the US.

The genesis of the issue is the exemption of certain income from US income tax (and state income taxes) for US citizens living and working abroad. There are several requirements for this exemption:

(Caveat: this is not professional advice. If you are affected you should discuss with your CPA)

1. A US citizen working abroad is still required to file a US Income Tax Return each year.

2. A US citizen living abroad must be a resident of the country he/she works in.

3. A US citizen living abroad is exempt for income tax on income earned abroad if the citizen has lived outside of the US for the entire tax year up to a maximum limit.

If you are a United States citizen with a tax home in a foreign country and you meet the bona fide residence test or physical presence test, you may exclude up to the maximum limit allowed for the taxable year.

Here are the two tests for living aboad:

a. You must be a resident for a whole year and

b. You must be a bone fide resident as defined below::

You must be a bona fide resident of a foreign country or countries for an uninterrupted period that includes an entire tax year. The characteristics which qualify you as a bona fide resident usually include establishing a home and settling in that country with some degree of permanence. An individual is not a bona fide resident of a foreign country if, the individual claims to be a nonresident to the authorities of the foreign country and his/her earned income is not subject to tax in the foreign country because the individual is considered a nonresident in the foreign country.

or you meet the physical presence test:

The physical presence test can be used by any United States citizen or resident alien. You must be physically present in a foreign country or countries for at least 330 full days during any period of 12 consecutive months. The 12–month period can begin with any day of any calendar month.

If one of those two tests are met there is still a limit on the exclusion:

Limit on Excludable Amount

You may be able to exclude up to $85,700 of your foreign earned income in 2007.

You cannot exclude more than the smaller of:

$85,700, or

Your foreign earned income (discussed earlier) for the tax year minus your foreign housing exclusion (discussed later).

If both you and your spouse work abroad and you and your spouse meet either the bona fide residence test or the physical presence test, you can each choose the foreign earned income exclusion. You do not both need to meet the same test. Together, you and your spouse can exclude as much as $171,400.

Most states have shadow tax laws which allow the state to tax any income that the US taxes for state residents. The definition for residency for states depend on the state and is beyond the scope of this post.

Finally if your income is subject to income tax you are also required to pay self-employment tax (currently 15.3%) on income up to the current limit of $102,000. Senator Obama's proposal to tax addition income above $250,000 would presumably include tax on foreign income as well. This excludes those countries that have an agreement with the US to collect social security type tax in their country but that would likely require that that country tax the income as well.

Your net self–employment income is generally subject to self–employment tax even if it is excluded for income tax purposes. However, if it was earned in a country that has a social security agreement with the United States, which is called a totalization agreement, it may be exempt from U.S. social security taxes, including the self–employment tax.

So for Childress to be told his muti-millions are tax free is apparently false and he will likely pay nearly as much or more than if he played in the US. This is because the employer half of the payroll taxes will be paid by Josh as well which partly offsets the small exclusion of income.

So here is my question: If you are a US citizen pro basketball player would you want to play overseas for a bump in income and avoid returning to the US in the off-season for more than 35 days a year? Having a shorter season does not seem so attractive if you have to stay there to me. Having to pay taxes at home while living abroad is also an equalizer. Do you think Josh's agents researched this question? Would taxes even matter in the decision to play abroad?

Why we will sign Petko and Batum this year

lee3022 — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 06:38:37 -0000

The economics of drafting Europeans in the bottom of the 1st round has shifted dramatically in the past 5 years. Considering 1) European teams paying significantly more to players; 2) the dollar's drop against the Euro; and 3) the NBA rookie salary structure for 1st round picks there simply is not enough money to sign a European talent after he establishes himself in Europe. (Rudy is amazing to be willing to come anyway.) Both Kopenen and Batum will have to sign 4-5 year contracts in order to play in Europe next year (and get pretty good money). By the end of those contracts they will be getting 3-5 times the salary restricted for low 1st rounder (remember that the salary is the amount when they were drafted). So failing to sign both this year probably means we will not see them again. A side note: I believe 2nd round picks are not restricted in what we can pay so 2nd rounders are more valuable than low 1st rounders for Europeans. It is why KP does so well with this currency.

Both show huge upside and both are raw in experience. Both can be worth having on the roster by the end of this year (getting some playing time).

So the real question to me is do you want to keep these guys or toss off Paul Allen's $3M purchase of each of these draft picks? It would appear that error on the side of keeping the player makes more sense. Especially if there is indeed a trade this next year (likely a 2 or 3 for 1 trade). We also have the ability to waive Raef (hate it if we do) and still keep his salary cap value going into next year. With Greg healthy there will not be minutes for him I would think. That would free up a roster slot if absolutely needed.

Fan Hatred and its fallout

lee3022 — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 20:38:28 -0000

A number of posts recently have indicated that the repeated success of a team is guaranteed to generate hatred nationally from other fans. I have been thinking about this and believe there are some nationally hated teams that share some characteristics we should consider.

1. Teams with owners (Cuban, Dolan and Buss) who habitually buy and trade players without regard to the luxury tax and fail mostly to develop their own players. This is seen as a competitive advantage that other teams cannot achieve and therefore resent. The Blazers in our dark days were in this category as well (Allen) which contributed to the focus nationally on the off-court troubles of the Blazer players.

2. The extensive coverage of large-market teams in Chicago, LA and New York areas has raised the focus nationally on these teams - especially when the teams do not merit such coverage by their current record.

3. Bandwagon fans across the country who adopt a big-market team in the good years and flaunt this to others around them who root for the home team. You can see this phenomenon with the baseball Red Sox and Yankees. Until the Red Sox won their first World Series they had few fans sporting their gear in other ball parks while the Yankees often had as many fans in another ball park as the home team. After Boston won that ratio began to reverse and after last year's championship Boston became the new 'darling', particularly among Yankee haters. The water cooler talk becomes obnoxious.

1. There are likely more you can add here. What are your additions?

Winning championships does not in itself generate hatred. San Antonio has won more than anyone this last decade and my perception is that their fans are gracious and they are not hated. When we play San Antonio my feelings are more of fear for their talent than anger over their success, Utah has been successful as has Phoenix but and others but not hatred on the scale of LAL, NYK or CHI.

Being in large markets does not in itself generate hatred. New Jersey Nets and LAC do not seem to generate much emotion nationally even when NJN were in the conference finals.

2. Another question is do we want to revert to the fan behavior that led to the ugly national hatred? How do you feel? Is hatred of the Blazers really inevitable?

Poll

3. Do you think fans can influence national perception and should we reassess our attitudes?

Was Arthur promised #12?

lee3022 — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 01:02:56 -0000

Hello - This is my first post here but longtime poster on Blazers Edge and a KU alum. The question posed above might be of interest here given the normal interest we all have in our team's draft process. The support for the question comes from a leading NBA draft journalist and evaluator:

Today Jonathan Givony wrote on Draftexpress.com :

-A few teams we spoke with this weekend were wondering about the whereabouts of Darrell Arthur. The Kansas power forward reportedly canceled workouts with the Clippers (#7), Philadelphia (#16), Toronto (#17) and Indiana (#11) after working out for Seattle (#4, 24) and Sacramento (#12). Arthur has not hired an agent and is reportedly conducting all his business through his mother and AAU coach, although he will surely stay in the draft. One NBA team we spoke to had a hard time figuring out where he was and whether or not he’ll be showing up for their workout, as he did not bother to cancel or notify anyone of his plans. There were talks of a potential back and/or hamstring injury, leading some to question if anything funny is going on. He was reportedly 100% healthy when he worked out for Sacramento on Friday. Arthur’s camp could not be reached for comment.

What's the point?

lee3022 — Mon, 26 May 2008 06:21:32 -0000

There is so much debate about which point guard we need and so many who passionately believe we need a much better point guard to win a championship. In this light I wanted to look at championship teams in the past and how their starting point guards stack up to Steve Blake for this past year. OK- stop laughing. Even I was unprepared for the results.

From our own championship in 1977 through 2007 there are 31 championship teams. Looking at regular season statistics , I was surprised to discover that only 2 times in those 31 teams does the point guard average per game double digits in assists. Those two times were both by Magic Johnson ( 2 out of his 5 appearances). There were 11 times in those championship teams that the starting point guard had fewer assists per game than Steve Blake last year.

In those same years the average per game starting point guard turnovers for those championship teams was 2.1. Steve Blake’s 1.4 average as good as or better than 25 of those point guard's years with an additional 3 years n/a before turnovers were recorded as a stat. That suggests that Steve took as good as or better care of the ball than in all but 3 of those championship years. Not so shabby.

Now for the big difference – Steve Blake scored fewer points per game than all but 5 of those point guard/years. Even here Steve’s average last year of 8.5 is not that far below average of 14.0. We all remember that if Steve played in the 4th quarter is was as a spot-up shooter (he did shoot 40.6% from 3 compared with the average 25.1% in our study). Where Steve falls short is in shooting inside of the 3 as his overall FG% of 40.8% indicates he is not shooting well close in (especially compared with the championship point guards average of 46.9%). With Greg and LaMarcus scoring down low and with Brandon and Rudy adept at penetration, I would think maybe three point shooting is just fine for our remaining point guard.

We certainly are a long way from having a Chris Paul or Magic Johnson or even Isiah Thomas. But we are better off than with Ron Harper, Vernon Maxwell/Kenny Smith, John Paxson, Derek Fisher, Tiny Archibald or Maurice Cheeks in their championship years. Magic is in a category all his own and even though millions of players have tried to approach his level none have succeeded.

I suspect next year will improve our point guard play no matter who we have as we force teams to double team the bigs and get open shots for the perimeter. At least I am off the suicide watch if that remains Steve Blake.

Poll

Can Steve and Sergio and maybe Jarrett behind Brandon and Rudy be enough to take us to the championship in three years?

NBA rules the world!

lee3022 — Mon, 19 May 2008 05:44:36 -0000

For an entirely different reason I was reading on FIBA.com and encountered a stunning announcement. Perhaps I was asleep and missed the posting here since it is dated April 28, 2008.

As most of us know the USA plays basketball and the world plays an entirely different game with different rules. That disparity is over. FIBA is the rule-making body for the world and the Olympics. FIBA has adopted NBA rules!

World breakthrough as NBA and FIBA put their eggs in one basket

When I first read this I thought is must be a joke. But posted on FIBA.com gives it credence.

But no more. The International Basketball Federation (FIBA) took the giant leap yesterday at its meetings in Beijing, when its highest executive body - the FIBA Central Board - announced a number of rule changes, which in effect will make the international and NBA game virtually the same.

Even FIBA's press release referred to "historical changes", and indeed in one fell swoop, FIBA did a "copy and paste" from the NBA rule book to its own:

You can read the whole announcement here .

Why we should draft a Center (and who?)

lee3022 — Sun, 18 May 2008 19:19:10 -0000

Most of the draft discussion has been around point guard with occasional mentions (good) of power forward and small forward but almost nothing about Centers. The conventional wisdom seems to be that we have Joel and Greg and we are already good there.

Here is the missing link: 12

Yes, twelve fouls between Greg and Joel and we are done. We need a physical shot-blocking, rebounding center who can come in and give 10-15 minutes when foul trouble sits the others. He can also provide relief minutes 2-5 minutes at a time against Shaq, who I still see as a force to be countered. I think we have all seen that LaMarcus and Channing need to play PF most of the time.

What stats are meaningful? To me, rebounds, blocks, ball handling, fouls and shooting % are all important for a reserve Center in that order. Shooting is more FT% than FG% (anyone this size can dunk on smaller players) because you want to use this center when ahead and still hurt the other team for intentionally fouling. Ball handling is both assists and turnovers. There is a wide disparity of A/TO in this draft. Personal fouls should be adjusted by 1.2 times to account for 6 fouls in NBA (4 fouls of 5 is 80% of limit so 80% of 6 is 4.8) since games with 5 fouls stop counting for these players in college or Euroleague when they foul out. One player is from NBL in Australia (Jawai) and 3 from EuroLeague (Pekovic, Asik, Erden) Ajinka is on the list because he played well at the Nike Summit this year (foreign players against USA HS seniors). Ajinka did not play much in EuroLeague but he can sure block shots!

1st round or 2nd round is unknown since we do not need a starter at this time but can begin planning for protection for the end of Joel’s contract in three years. If the best player available is a Center at #13, maybe we take one there but, more likely, one in the 2nd round. I have listed below the Centers projected by Draft Express for 1st round and for 2nd round. I would like to hear if you think any of these would be especially desirable (consider the cost - we probably have a shot at all but Lopez at 13 and all from Pekovic down in the 2nd round without moving) and any that you think would definitely not fit our need. Also add players not listed below. Perhaps this can remain as a resource for Centers until the draft.

Brook Lopez (20) 7’0” 260 10.6TR 2.7BL 0,64A/TO 3.2PF 46.8%FG 78.9%FT

DeAndre Jordan (20) 7’0” 260 11.9TR 2.5BL 0.28A/TO 3.8PF 61.7%FG 43.7%FT

Kosta Koufos (19) 7’1” 245 9.9TR 2.7BL 0.36A/TO 3.2PF 65.0%FG 68.0%FT

JaVale McGee (20) 7’0” 237 10.7TR 4.1BL 0.26A/TO 3.6PF 52.9FG% 52.5%FT

Alexis Ajinca (20) 7’1” 225 no meaningful stats

Roy Hibbert (21) 7’2” 272 9.7TR 3.4BL 0.46A/TO 4.1PF 60.9%FG 64.6%FT

Robin Lopez (20) 7’0” 255 9.2TR 3.8BL 0.4A/TO 4.3PF 53.4%FG 65.2%FT

Jason Thompson (21) 6’11” 250 14.0TR 3.1BL 0.94A/TO 56.0%FG 58.1%FT

DeVon Hardin (21) 6’11” 250 12.4TR 2.1BL 0.46A/TO 55.4%FG 63.6%FT

Nikola Pekovic (22) 6’11” 243 10.2TR 0.8BL 0.39A/TO 58.4%FG 77.3%FT

Nathan Jawai (21) 6’10” 282 12.2TR 1.3BL 0.76A/TO 57.5FG% 64.5% FT

Omar Asik (21) 6’11” 230 11.8TR 4.5BL 0.30A/TO 3.7PF 59.5%FG 52.7%FT

Trent Plaisted (21) 6’11” 240 10.8TR 1.4BL 0.26A/TO 54.2%FG 54.2%FT

Semih Erden (22) 7’1” 240 8.9TR 1.8BL 0.38A/TO 6.5PF 50.0% FG 57.5%FT

David Padgett (23) 6’11” 240 8.1TR 1.9BL 1.31A/TO 66.7%FG 66.0%FT

Sasha Kaun (23) 6’11” 243 9.7TR 2.8BL 0.25A/TO 5.4PF 61.9%FG 54.1%FT (added by me)

Martell Webster moving up

lee3022 — Mon, 12 May 2008 08:06:22 -0000

There has been much disparaging of Martell and our selection of him and Jarrett Jack instead of Deron Williams or Chris Paul. While those two players have indeed become big contributors in year 3 Martell is not so shabby. Martell has those qualities so hard to find with terrific athleticism, wonderful shooting form, toughness and size. Some do not appreciate Martell as a shooter. He compares very well with NBA shooters.

Martell is a better 3-point shooter in year 3 than most 6-5 to 6-8 SFs. Can I back that up? Here is a list of shooters most of us know and how they shot the 3-point in year 3 of the NBA:

Martell Webster 38.8%

Ray Allen 35.6%

Reggie Miller 41.4%

Michael Jordan 18.2%

K*by Bryant 26.7%

Caron Butler 30.4%

James Worthy 0%

Clyde Drexler 20.0%

Ron Artest 31.2%

Dominique Wilkins 30.9%

Kiki Vanderweghe 29.4%

Carmelo Anthony 24.3%

Luol Deng 14.3%

Andre Iguodala 31.0%

Manu Ginobili 37.6%

Joe Johnson 30.5%

Magic Johnson 20.7%

James Jones 38.6%

Kyle Korver 42.0%

Rashard Lewis 43.2%

Martell Webster at age 21 shoots better from 3-point range than most 6-5 to 6-8 shooters at that age in the NBA:

Martell Webster 38.8%

Ray Allen 39.3%

Michael Jordan 17.3%

K*by Bryant 31.9%

James Worthy 25.0%

Clyde Drexler 25.0%

Ron Artest 29.1%

Carmelo Anthony 24.3%

Luol Deng 14.3%

Rudy Gay 34.6%

Andre Iguodala 33.1%

Joe Johnson 36.6%

Magic Johnson 17.6%

Rashard Lewis 43.2%

The thing Martell does best I think is shoot. Yes, he is streaky as all of these players were as well. Many of them were not in the league at age 21.

I also submit that Martell plays better defense than most of these at the same age/experience. This was not a blown pick. CP3 has wowed us all on the court this year but this was the same guy who showed off his expensive hot new ride on draft day with CP3 burned/monogrammed into the leather seats. He may need to be the center of attention at all times. Martell is humble and determined to get better. He has done that every year and when he gets inducted into the HOF nobody will consider this a blown pick! (Ok that was over the top. My bad.)

Getting a serviceable and tradeable point guard in Jack was simply icing on the cake. Martell is moving up and I am glad.

All stats courtesy of basketball-reference.com.

Poll

Martell Webster's outside shooting in 10 years will be better than

Another Free Agent

lee3022 — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 05:14:38 -0000

NFLDraftbible.com is disclosing that the Cowboys have signed a SS in Dowayne Davis of Syracuse.

Link

DRAFT BIBLE SLEEPER: DOWAYNE DAVIS

One of the prospects flying under the radar is Syracuse safety/cornerbacks Dowayne Davis. After starting at strong safety for two seasons, the 6’0, 200-pound Davis excelled as a senior-- making the transition to cornerback and showing vast improvement in his man coverage. He displayed outstanding athleticism and good instincts, not to mention he can also lay the lumber (see insert). A scouting combine snuff, Davis looks to impress scouts at his pro day workout in March where the former track standout is expected to run in the low 4.4-range. With The Orangemen producing such talents as Tanard Jackson (Buccaneers) and Anthony Smith (Steelers) in recent years, look for Davis to garner some attention. A native of Jamaica, he was also an academic achiever in the classroom.

Posted by NFL DRAFT BIBLE at 7:33 AM