I was talking with a friend earlier today about how it seems Albert has hit an unusual amount of solo homers this season, at least compared to a lot of other power hitters.  Well, part of that is due to short term memory:  #5 has hit 6 solo blasts in a row now between August 26th and his multi-home run game yesterday on 9/12.  Also, going back to August 13th, 10 of his last 11 homers have resulted in only 1 RBI.

On the season, 24 of the 38 that have gone yard were solo, or 63.2%

That's not too unusual, and before I go further, we have to remember that most all of this data are prone to the small sample size rut that is always fun to look at but rarely that informative.  This is more for curiosity's sake.

For his career, Pujols has hit 220 solo homers out of a total of 405:  54.3%

I wanted to look at the total # of solo shots / total # HRs from the league totals for the length of Pujols's career, but it would take way too long to count out solos from 2000+ lines of data from www.baseball-reference.com  If anyone knows an easier way to do this, please let me know - I'm not used to looking up information online and so I am not fully aware of what's available out there.

Anyway, broken down year by year, Pujols's numbers (solo / total, rounded up to the nearest decimal) look like the following:

2001:  21/37 = 56.8%

2002:  14/33 = 42.4%

2003:  22/42 = 52.4%

2004:  26/45 = 57.8%

2005:  21/40 = 52.5%

2006:  22/48 = 45.8%

2007:  20/31 = 64.5% (sidenote:  He almost missed 30 HRs. Only hit 2 in final month and a half)

2008:  20/36 = 55.6%

2009:  30/46 = 65.2%

2010:  24/38 = 63.2%

Totals:  220/405 = 54.3%

Obviously, in his first 6 seasons his solo rates ranged from 42.4% to the highest at 57.8%.  Again, small sample sizes, but in the last 4 years, it has ranged from 55.6% to 65.2%.  There are too many factors that could begin to explain this, ranging from not performing in pressure situations to not receiving a pitch in the strike zone and so on, but there seems to be some sort of growing trend here.

I wanted to compare Albert to the other "most dangerous hitter in baseball" so I looked at A-Rod's totals from the same 2001-2010 timespan.   They are as follows.

2001:  27/51 = 53.0%

2002:  29/56 = 51.8%

2003:  28/46 = 60.9%

2004:  18/35 = 51.4%

2005:  27/47 = 57.4%

2006:  16/34 = 47.1%

2007:  18/53 = 34.0%

2008:  23/34 = 67.6%

2009:  15/29 = 51.7%

2010:  10/21 = 47.6%

Totals:  213/406 = 52.5%

As you can see, Pujols and A-Rod have hit almost the exact same amount of solo shots to total shots: 220 for AP vs 213 for AR and 405 for AP vs 406 for AR.  Impressive all around.  I will take this opportunity to not take a cheap shot by saying I hate the Yankees and A-Rod happened to be caught using steroids in this time, whereas Pujols has, as far as we know, not.

Anyway, there does not seem to be a trend for Rodriguez that would indicate that he is instilling a growing fear into the hearts and minds of pitchers. Again, SSS.

I considered the fact that the AL plays baseball a bit differently and often features more home runs and more home run hitters.  I figured the easiest comparison would be home run hitters from a friendly ballpark so I chose Coors Field, and 2001-2004 Todd Helton and 2005-2010 Matt Holliday.  Perhaps Larry Walker would have been a better choice, but it's too late now.  Their numbers?

2001:  28/48 = 58.3%

2002:  18/29 = 62.1%

2003:  22/32 = 68.8%

2004:  22/31 = 70.0%

--

2005:  6/18  = 33.3%

2006:  19/33 = 57.6%

2007:  18/35 = 51.4%

2008:  18/24 = 75.0%

2009:  11/23 = 47.8%

2010:  13/25 = 52.0%

Totals:  175/298 = 58.7%

As I expected, Holliday's numbers were not surprising for someone I consider a dangerous hitter but nobody that a pitcher is actually afraid to face of the likes of this decade's Bonds Pujols A-Rod etc.  However, Helton's solo shot percentages are quite high - perhaps due to the protection of having to face Larry Walker and several other 30-HR guys in that time?

The 2007-2010 percentages for Pujols made me consider IBBs for these respective sets.  A-Rod has 78, Pujols 232, and Helton/Holliday 109.  Pujols by the years:

2001:  6

2002:  13

2003:  12

2004:  12

2005:  27

2006:  28

2007:  22

2008:  34

2009:  44

2010:  34 and counting

Total:  232

When compared to his solo shots numbers, his average IBBs have increased when his solo shot percentages have increased.  In 2005 and 2006 his IBBs increased significantly but his solo percentages did not - however, those were lineups that featured Larry Walker ('05) and Rolen and Edmonds in both years to provide dangerous cleanup hitting.  From 2007-2008 it seems the consensus in the media was that the Cardinals had no legitimate backup for Pujols, but 2008 of course featured Ludwick's crazy awesome season, and 2007 showed Lil Dunc's once-promising 21 HR season and 2008 had Glaus at 20+ and 2009 brought in Holliday.  

Still, after the 2003-2005 seasons it seems that teams stopped being afraid of what the Cardinals brought to the table - work around Pujols and there's not much to fear.  Even with Holliday having a good year (disappointing for me compared to his contract) we all know there isn't anything in the 6-9 and 1-2 spots to really worry about.  What went from a promising 1-6 of (what I wanted to see) Rasmus > Lopez > Holliday > Pujols > Ludwick > Rasmus lineup has of course turned into Schu > * > Pujols > Holliday > Rasmus > * *  etc.

I guess what I'm getting is that these small samples seem to show that pitchers/managers/whatever are afraid of Pujols moreso than any other player in the game and that they are becoming increasingly comfortable with not letting him hit.

Assuming Pujols's power numbers do not begin fading in the next few years from wear and tear, I believe this means the Ludwick trade was not only terrible for this season, but will impact the team for the next several years.  Colby must maintain his power threat and stay healthy, and Freese must be healthy in order to add some stability and to the lineup - something neither of them has thus far shown.  

And for GOB's sake, we need to install some high OBP players in front of Pujols - aka some young, cheap talent from hmm, the minors maybe?  Trading the 3rd biggest power threat and playing the gritty vets is not only hurting the team, but limiting the best player in baseball from showing that he might actually be able to put up greater numbers than he already has, something I am not sure if I believe possible.  So I suppose I will end with this:  It is time for TLR to go.  I liked him until 2008 or so and I grew up with him, but there always comes a time..and I hope that time does not effect Pujols's future location.

And for my first fanpost..

Well, Hinkster's FanPost at http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2009/6/22/920962/is-this-a-great-game-or-what about his borderline mental obsession with baseball took me and others on a brief trip down memory lane.  That got me thinking about my obsession with collecting things...ranging from bottle caps to PD Weatherbirds (I have 2 shoebox fulls of these cut out..) to pokemon cards to movie ticket stubs (can't believe I saw Car 54 among others, ugh..), etc.  You get the idea.  

Anyway, one of the things I have collected over the years are the baseball ticket stubs of games I have attended.  I have them pinned to my bedroom wall.

Since I was born in 1987, I do not have any until 1993, although my parents inform me that I have been to at least a game or two a year since 1989.  I remember hearing about Whitey growing up and of course now know about his brand of ball that he brought to town.  I also apparently got to see Schoendienst manage, which I wish I could remember.  The Joe Torre years are the first that I personally remember.  I definitely remember liking him a lot more as a Cardinal than a Yankee....anywho, we all know some of the great players from these decades.  I've had the pure privilege of seeing Ozzie, Willie, my favorite outfield ever of Gilkey Jordan and Lankford, well..this list will get way too long in a hurry.  We all know the players.

Granted the following list isn't that large for a 16 year period, but seeing as I have only recently been old enough to afford going to games myself, I thought it would be interesting to see what happened at some of these specific games.  There are also games missing, as I know I've been to more, just have lost the stubs over the years.  I also thought it would be interesting if you all know which specific games you have been to, and if anything exciting happened at them.  Which leads me to this:

All links thanks to the amazing baseball-reference.com

Jul 3 '94 L 2-5 vs Rockies

Aug 22 '95  W 7-3 vs Reds.  The Secret Weapon! and Barry Larkin and Reggie Sanders on a winning Cincinatti team.  Nice speed

Aug 15 '96  L 2-5 vs Dodgers.  Hideo Nomo in one of his great years, 10 K 8 IP.

Aug 31 '96  W 2-1 vs Rockies.  Andy Benes 8 IP 1 ER

May 30 '97  W 2-1 vs Dodgers.  Andy Benes 8 IP 1 ER again

Jul 1 '97  W 2-0 vs Twins.  My first interleague game that I know of, against my tied for favorite AL team (along w/ Royals).  Will see Pujols vs Mauer this Friday.

Aug 12 '97  W 5-2 vs Mets.  Andy Benes gets W again, seem to go to a lot of his games...my first Big Mac game AND HR I ever saw live! 3 run shot.  Remember my dad telling me that this guy was good.

Apr 27 '98  W 7-0 vs Expos.  Remember them?  Never knew Grudz and dirtyhat Kline played for them.  

May 17 '98  W 13-4 vs Marlins. 

May 27 '98  W 2-1 vs Rockies.

Jun 30 '98  L 6-1 vs Royals.  Saw McG's 37th HR on his path to 70.  Also got a commemorative pin marking the event as 1st interleague game at Busch II of the season.

Jul 4 '99  L 17-5 vs Diamondbacks.  OUCH. Andy Benes gets W for Dbacks, I must be his good luck charm.

Aug 16 '99  W 4-3 vs Phillies.  J.D. Drew's first game @ Busch since the battery throwing incident in Philly.  I remember a fan walking around the stadium with a sign saying Welcome to St. Louis - Batteries not included! One of the best signs I've ever seen in person.

Jun 20 '00  W 7-2 vs Giants.  My first game seeing Edmonds (HR) and dun dun dun...Rick Ankiel! His line for the day: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K, gave up a homer.

Jul 4 '00  W 14-3 vs Reds.  

Aug 4 '00  L 6-4 vs Braves.   Andy Benes finally loses a game I attend.

Jun 18 '01  W 6-2 vs Cubs.  My first Cubs Cards game and we win! Yay.  First time seeing Pujols play - goes 1/4 w/ a single.  This was the only game I went to where Stubby Clapp played, and boy was that fun.  I got a "STUBBY! STUBBY!" cheer started in the upper deck which spread around the stadium before he struck out.  Alas.  Also first time seeing Kile pitch for the Cards.  Saw him as a Rockie. McG hits 3R HR, Kile gave up a solo HR to Sosa.  He goes 7 w/ 2 ER and 11 K:1 BB.  He died almost exactly a year later vs the same opponents.  RIP =(

Aug 5 '01  L 5-3 vs Marlins.  Mabry returns to hit a HR against the Cards

Aug 8 '02  W 5-3 vs Expos.  First time I ever saw Pujols hit a home run, and first time I ever saw Izzy get a save.

Aug 11 '02  W 9-0 vs Mets.  Went for a friends birthday, about 12 15 year old brats yelling "CMON PIZZA" at Mike Piazza to annoy him and the Mets fans in our section.. Rolen w/ 8 TB, BB + double shy of the cycle.  Least it wasn't a triple..Dan 'n Al..

Aug 26 '03  L 7-4 vs Cubs.  Got to see that Bo Hart guy play.

Jun 20 '04  L 0-6 vs Reds.  Griffey Jr. belts #500 off Matty Mo.  Wonderful moment to be a part of, wish we could've won of course..

Aug 4 '04  W 5-4 vs Expos.  Mabry 4-4.  I always liked him even if he wasn't that great of a player.  Last series the Expos would play in STL.

Jul 18 '05  W 11-4 vs Brewers.  

Aug 7 '05  W 5-3 vs Braves.  Last game I ever attended at Busch II, and a good one to add to the many fond memories I have of that amazing stadium.  Probably the greatest game I've ever been to.  Cardinals down 3-1 in 9th riding on a Pujols HR, Cards load bases on 3 singles when Eckstein cranks a walk off grand slam.  Never heard the stadium so loud.

Aug 3 '06  L 1-8 vs Phillies.  

May 9 '07  W 9-2 vs Rockies.  First time seeing WW start a game.

Jun 12 '07  L 1-8 vs Royals.  Only time I've seen Cards play away from home.  Drove down I-70 to see game w/ a friend from KC, of course we get blown out for my first trip to Kauffman. My first tailgate.  20 years old, dehydrated and drinking and smoking hookah made me pass out for a few seconds in the parking lot.  Ludwick hits the solo shot in the 9th so at least I didn't have to see a shut out.  Bannister wasn't that lucky this year!

Jul 8 '07  W 7-0 vs Giants.  How many times did we see Welly and Izzy both pitch in a game with no ER?

Aug 8 '07  W 2-1 vs Padres.  Kip Wells 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4K.  What?

Aug 9 '07  W 5-0 vs Padres.  The Pinata's 1st home start, 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4K.  Look familiar?  One of the starts we resigned him for.  Ankiel has his 1st game back as a Cardinal and belts a 3 run homer.  Great game!

Jul 4 '08  L 1-2 vs Cubs.  PUJOLS 300!!!!! Worth the loss to get to be there for that.

Aug 5 '08  W 6-4 vs Dodgers.  1st time I get to see Carp pitch, I believe.  He went down on his next start..ugh.

Aug 6 '08  W 9-6 vs Dodgers.  Pujols GS 

Mar 10 '09 W 5-2 vs Tigers.  Took my first spring break trip to go see Cardinals Spring Training! Got Nick Stavinoha's autograph, shook hands with Brian Barton, Jim Leyland looked at me, watched hours of practice, sat 5 rows behind Tigers dugout for $27.  Heckled by Tigers fan for not looking old enough to buy beer. From a previous comment I posted on VEB: "I was standing next to the dugout before the game when Brian Barton walked in. He was very polite, quiet and humble and signed several autographs. He was leaving when a 4 or so year old kid started calling his name, and Barton went up to him and received a card that had been made specifically for him. In the dugout, he took about 30 seconds to read the card. It was touching" Good times.

Mar 12 '09  W 4-2.  Red Sox fans bragging about beating us in '04 WS.  Whatever.  Joey Bombs belts a walkoff home run in the 9th to win, so we got to brag about that.  Old Sox fan teaches me a tip:  When needing to get beer and not wanting to get up from your seat, put dollar bills inside empty water bottle and toss bottle to someone at aisle or exit.  Handy..

Apr 6 '09   L 4-6 vs Pirates.  My first opening day!  Drove 3 hours from Kirksville to make it just in time for pre-game festivities and to freeze my skinny white ass off.  Really, I have never been outside for 4-5 hours in such weather.  It wasn't that cold, but the wind gusting through the stadium really sucked.  I felt bad for the home crowd because it sounded like the stadium was dead, but it was because all the fans were wearing gloves and not a single clap could be heard.   Spent $30 a piece on SRO tickets, but well worth it.  We don't need reminding what happened..

Apr 26 '09  L 10-3 vs Cubs.  Ugh. Drove 3 hours for that one..got lost downtown at 3 AM after drinking away the game, spent 2 hours finding a hotel @ 5 AM so we could spend $125 to check out 6 hours later.

May 22 '09  W 5-0 vs Royals.  Albert Pujols 2008 MVP Figurine Night - proudly watching over me as I sleep.

Jun 4 '09  W 3-1 vs Reds.  Pujols scores all 3 runs, Carp pitches all 9 innings, 1 juicer Nix away from a CG shutout.  God I love watching him pitch a gem.  I'd give my soul to have him pitch to his abilities til he's Moyer's age.

Jun 8 '09  L 2-5 vs Rockies.  

Jun 17 '09  W 4-3 vs Tigers.

Jun 18 '09  L 3-6 vs Tigers.  Ankiel GIDP w/ bases loaded to end game.  Told my mom it was coming as soon as he came to the plate, she didn't believe me...she's one of those people that thinks he can hit in that situation.  Sigh.

 

Some misc. stats I looked at:

Pujols HR/Games Attended:  9/25 = 36%

Record when attending Cards game:  (26-15) = .634

Record from '94-'09: (1296-1137) = .533

Winning percentage attended/winning percentage '94-'09:  .634 / .533

Spring training record:  (2-0)

Cubs games attended:  4 (1-3)

Most common opponent attended:  Rockies; 5 (3-2)

In attendance, runs scored vs runs against:  192:155

Teams seen:  21.  Every NL team.  Hope to see every AL team at some point.