Portland has made the playoffs for three straight seasons, yet the team is still hurting for a point guard, as well as a young big man to play alongside LaMarcus Aldridge. The Blazers seemed to have it all figured out after drafting Brandon Roy, Aldridge and Greg Oden in a two-year span, and were the "hot" young team that many pundits had as a future NBA title contender. A degenerative knee condition has already ended Brandon Roy's career after three All-Star Game appearances, and Greg Oden has played in less than a quarter of the team's games since being drafted #1 overall, leaving Aldridge as the face of the franchise.

Aldridge has been playing at an All-Star level the last year and a half, and was just announced as a reserve in this years' game while averaging 23.3 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. Part of the problem for Portland has been its bad performance in recent drafts.

In 2007, Portland won the NBA Draft lottery and selected former Ohio State center Greg Oden. Oden was widely viewed as a game-changer in the middle, who at 7'0", 255 pounds, had the size and athleticism that had many believing he was a once-in-a-generation type of player. Injuries have seen Oden on the sideline since fracturing his kneecap in December of 2009. Here's is the team's draft history since the 2004 season.

2004

PG Sebastian Telfair, 13th overall

SF/PF Viktor Khryapa, 22nd overall

SG/SF Sergei Monia, 23rd overall

C Ha Seung-Jin, 47th overall

Analysis: Among the players the Blazers could have drafted instead of this current crop include Al Jefferson (15th), Josh Smith (17th), J.R. Smith (18th), Jameer Nelson (20th), Kevin Martin (26th) Anderson Varejao (31st) and Trevor Ariza (44th). Only one player is still in the league (Telfair), though Khryapa was used in a 2006 Draft day trade that landed Portland LaMarcus Aldridge.

Grade: D-

2005

SG/SF Martell Webster, 6th overall

PG Jarrett Jack, 22nd overall

Analysis: The Blazers chose to trade the #3 overall pick to Utah for the 6th overall pick and 27th overall pick (which Portland flipped, along with the 35th pick for Jarrett Jack), passing on both Deron Williams and Chris Paul. Among the other players that could have been taken include Andrew Bynum (10th), Danny Granger (17th), David Lee (30th), Monta Ellis (40th), Lou Williams (45th) and Marcin Gortat (57th). Jack has been playing well this season replacing Chris Paul at point guard in New Orleans.

Grade: C

2006

PF LaMarcus Aldridge, 2nd overall

SG Brandon Roy, 6th overall

PG Sergio Rodriguez, 27th overall

PF Joel Freeland, 30th overall

Analysis: Portland wheeled-and-dealed throughout the evening, including deals for Aldridge (Tyrus Thomas, selected 4th overall, along with Viktor Khryapa) and Roy (Randy Foye, selected 7th overall, and cash considerations). Between the 27th and 60th pick, some others that could have been in PDX include Paul Millsap (47th) and Leon Powe (49th). Overall, you really couldn't have asked for a better draft than this, as both Roy (3x) and Aldridge (1x) have been selected as All-Stars.

Grade: A

2007

C Greg Oden, 1st overall

SG Rudy Fernandez, 22nd overall

PG Petteri Koponen, 30th overall

PF Josh McRoberts, 37th overall

PG Taurean Green, 52nd overall

Analysis: The Blazers won the draft lottery and selected Oden ahead of now perennial All-Star Kevin Durant with the first pick, which was a franchise-altering decision. Fernandez was much more sizzle than susbstance in Portland, and will be going back to play for Spanish team Real Madrid after he finishes this season with the Denver Nuggets. McRoberts has been a solid role player in the NBA for the Pacers and Lakers, while Koponen had his draft rights traded on draft night, and Green washed out in just a little over a season. Others that could have been chosen include Durant (2nd), Al Horford (3rd), Mike Conley Jr. (4th), Joakim Noah (9th), Rodney Stuckey (15th), Carl Landry (31st), Glen Davis (35th) and Marc Gasol (48th).

Grade: D

2008

PG/SG Jerryd Bayless, 11th overall

SG/SF Nicolas Batum, 25th overall

Analysis: The Blazers were again active on Draft day, sending Jack, McRoberts and the draft rights to Brandon Rush (13th overall) for Ike Diogu and the draft rights of Bayless. They also acquired the draft rights to Batum for a package that included the rights to Donte Greene (28th overall) and Joey Dorsey (33rd overall). Bayless is a rotation player for the Raptors, while Batum has started the majority of his time in Portland, though is currently a sixth man type player for Portland. Solid draft for the Blazers.

Grade: B+

2009

SF Victor Claver, 22nd overall

PF Jeff Pendegraph, 31st overall

PF Dante Cunningham, 33rd overall

PG Patty Mills, 55th overall

Analysis: The Blazers traded up two spots with the Mavericks to draft Claver, who has yet play for Portland. The Cunningham pick came from the Clippers in a previous trade, and Mills was acquired in a three-team deal with Denver and Chicago. Pendegraph is an end-of-the-bench player in Indiana, while Cunningham was a part of the deal that brought Gerald Wallace to PDX, and is currently a role player for Memphis. Mills signed with a Chinese team during the NBA lockout, and will likely try to sign with an NBA team soon. Both Cunningham and Mills provided the Blazers energy off the bench from 2009 to early 2011. Other players that could have been drafted include Taj Gibson (26th), Toney Douglas (29th), DeJuan Blair (37th) and Jonas Jerebko (39th).

Grade: C-

2010

SF Luke Babbitt, 16th overall

SG Elliot Williams, 22nd overall

PG Armon Johnson, 34th overall

Analysis: The Blazers acquired F Ryan Gomes and the draft rights to Luke Babbitt in a trade with Minnesota for Martell Webster. Babbitt has yet to find any consistent minutes, and has yet to prove he's an NBA ready player. Williams missed nearly his entire rookie season dealing with knee injuries, but is seeing spot minutes at shooting guard for Portland. Johnson made a splash early in his rookie season, but careless ball-handling and questionable shot selection landed him either on the end of the bench, or in the NBA Developmental League. Other options included Jordan Crawford (27th), Greivis Vasquez (28th) and Landry Fields (39th).

Grade: C-

2011

PG Nolan Smith, 21st overall

SG Jon Diebler, 51st overall

Analysis: Smith has seen spot minutes behind Raymond Felton at point guard, but is still working on transitioning from playing largely shooting guard in his four years at Duke. Diebler is currently playing in Greece, but could be a solid situational shooter in the league, as he shot 50.2% from deep in his senior season at Ohio State. Current rookies that could've been in Portland include MarShon Brooks (25th), Chandler Parsons (38th), Jeremy Tyler (39th), Josh Harrellson (45th) and Isaiah Thomas (60th).

Grade: Incomplete

Final Thoughts

Of the 25 players on this list, there are seven players currently on the roster, but only three of those that were selected in 2009 or earlier (Aldridge, Batum and Oden). There are three that have yet to come over from Europe (Koponen, Freeland and Claver), which doesn't include Jon Diebler, who is playing in Greece this season. Two players (Roy and Aldridge) have been selected as All-Stars in that time frame. Seven players are currently out of the NBA (Khryapa; Monia; Seung-Jin; Roy: injury; Rodriguez; Green; Mills: signed overseas), and only two are starters on their respective teams (Aldridge and Jack). Ultimately, I believe the front office has to do a better job of finding quality NBA players in order for Portland to be able to go from a playoff also-ran to a legitimate contender.

As Blazers fans everywhere know by now, the health of Brandon Roy's knees has an issue since getting injured about a week before the Blazers entered the 2010 NBA Playoffs against the Phoenix Suns. Since the injury, Brandon has shown flashes of his former self, including his ridiculous 18 point fourth quarter to spark the Blazers comeback from 23 down in the second half to knot the series at two wins apiece.

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Disclaimer: I’m sure by now, most of you are tired of discussing Jerryd Bayless. Please bear with me, as I’m going to try and provide a little bit different look at the whole situation.

Being Blazers fans, we all tend to find our favorite players. Now whether it’s because of their on-court intelligence, first class athleticism, personalities or leadership (both vocal and silent), it doesn’t make a difference. Certain players just seem to have a very divisive quality about them, where people are divided on exactly how good someone is/can be. Never has that been more apparent than with the hot-and-cold relationship between Blazers fans and Jerryd Bayless.

At this point, there seems to be two vastly different opinions on Bayless:

1) He is a hard working kid who will eventually be a perfect fit alongside Brandon Roy, becoming our point guard of the future

OR…

2) He is simply a 2-guard who can’t shoot, stuck in a point guard’s body.

I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle, as both sides have valid arguments that can be backed up. Jerryd definitely can do things our other point guards currently can’t, namely his ability to create shots for himself and get to the free throw line at a very solid rate (1.6 makes per game in 12:24 minutes/game). That number could have been higher had some calls been made that would have been called for more established players. For a comparison, Bayless almost as many FT/game as Blake and Sergio COMBINED, in less than 1/3 the total playing time per game. Bayless also has the will to get better, as he was often reported to be one of the first players at the practice facility, as well as one of the last to leave. So what’s not to like about Bayless?

Bayless definitely needs to improve his shooting from both the field (36.5%), as well as from three (25.9%). As many have pointed out, he also tends to put his head down and drive, frequently ignoring open teammates that have a better look than he does. He also didn’t quite have a 1.5 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio, hardly numbers you’d like to see from a point guard. So why do people believe that Bayless is a long-term answer at PG?

-          He is a very good athlete, with a strong, compact body that will have an easier time withstanding contact from attacking the rim.

-          He will still only have just turned 21 by the time training camp opens this fall, and has a lot of room for growth.

-          He could give our offense another scoring option, who can create shots off the dribble and attack the rim, which would force defenses to collapse.

Before this past season, I did a poll to gauge how BEdgers felt about Jerryd’s chances to become the starting point guard for the Blazers in the near future…here were the results:

Looking at the results, a whopping 87.6% (304 of 347) people polled believe that Bayless would, AT WORST, be our starter by next season… I’m willing to bet that the number wouldn’t be nearly as optimistic if I were to list a poll again now. This just goes to show you how much the culture of Blazers basketball has changed. During the 05-06 season, the majority of Blazers fans talked about “potential”. We had guys like Darius Miles, Zach Randolph, Travis Outlaw, Sebastian Telfair and Martell Webster, just to name a few. Darius and Zach’s bad behavior got them a one way ticket out of town, along with Sebastian Telfair’s trade to Boston for the rights to the 7th pick in the 2006 Draft (which we parlayed into Randy Foye, swiftly sending him to Minnesota along with cash for “The Franchise” Brandon Roy). Travis was a fan favorite then, but now a large portion of Blazers fans are calling for him to be shipped off. Martell missed all but five minutes this season, a huge disappointment for those (including KP and Monty Williams) who believed Martell was primed for a breakout year. Seeing that laundry list of guys who have yet to live up to the promise they sometimes displayed, it’s no wonder that as a whole, people are now wary that Bayless may not be the answer. It’s very hard for fans to be patient, and being Blazers fans, we’ve been through the constant arrests and embarrassments some former players caused, the Twenty-Five Point Pledge and the rebuilding.

The NBA culture is largely a “now” league. Many of us believe that Portland can potentially be a contender in the Western Conference next year, which makes being patient very much a virtue. While very few would disagree with the fact that Bayless had a disappointing season, I just refuse to count out a kid that works so hard, and does everything in his power to become a better player and transform his game into what Coach McMillan wants. Whether you believe Bayless is the long-term answer at point guard or not, all I know is, I wouldn’t bet against him.

To those of you that finished this, thanks for reading, and I'd love to hear your opinions.

After watching our first three games this season, there are some observations I’ve had about our team in general, as well as some indvidual players. First, let’s start with the team…

*We aren’t playing good team defense. It seems as though we’re late in rotating to the ball on swing and skip passes, resulting in an abnormally high amount of open three pointers, which our opponents have been hitting at a significantly high rate (52.3 from the field, and a whopping 51.2 from distance)

*Our first team’s offense looks stagnant. This is especially true when our opponents move into a zone. Instead of using our dribble and getting into the heart of the zone and dishing, we need to attack the rim and get ourselves to the line, only kicking if the defense closes in time. We seem to just settle for the first decent look we get. Very few teams can consistently win by taking a high rate of jumpers, and I can’t recall the last team to win an NBA title while consistently settling for outside shots.

*Injuries are really hurting this team right now. While being 1-2 so far is not that bad, there are certain things that both Oden and Webster can do which we need. Webster had been arguably the most impressive Blazer in camp (outside of Aldridge), and really looked good in our first preseason game before his injury. Martell does a good job of scrapping on defense, and is not out of position all that often (something Travis is still struggling with). While the numbers may disagree with me, there’s nobody outside of Brandon Roy I’d rather have take an open three than Martell. Oden provides a scoring threat at center for us, one of the few things Przybilla doesn’t do. Because of Oden’s sheer size, he’ll demand at least occasional double-teams when guarded by smaller centers. Even though he’d admit he’s not in game shape yet, during the pre-season, he averaged 11.5 points and 7.8 rebounds in 23 minutes a game, which for half the centers in the league would be a good year. Give this kid time, and he’ll be VERY GOOD!

*Our best line-up is Roy, Fernandez, Batum, Aldridge, and Przybilla. Since we’ve only seen Oden in one half of one game, this is our most complete line-up when factoring in half court offense, fast breaks and defense. When Webster and Oden are back healthy, I’m sure this will change, but with this line-up, we can play a zone defense, with good passing lane defenders in Fernandez and Batum, and two good shot blockers in Aldridge and Przybilla. We’d be able to get out on the break, and all of our guards can handle the ball (Roy and Rudy our two best), and Aldridge and Przybilla (to a lesser extent) can run and finish in transition.

*The officials won’t give us any breaks. If you’re unsure of that, just watch the officiating in the Suns game. We’re a young team, and we DO have to earn a reputation in this league as an attacking team before calls that should be made will be. Outside of Brandon Roy and Rudy Fernandez, nobody else is attempting 3 free throws a game, which tells me we are settling for far too many jumpers, as evidenced by our paltry 42.1% shooting from the field, which is the sign of a young team.

Now for the individual observations.

*Brandon Roy is our Point Guard of the Future. While Nate has been very hesitant to say such things, Brandon initiates the offense at least 2/3rds of the time. At this point, he is our best ball-handler, and while Nate may never list Brandon as a PG, he is one.

*Aldridge can be a force…when he puts his mind to it. One of my biggest worries with him is that he’s starting to get Rasheed Wallace Syndrome…No I don’t mean getting technicals every game. He seems to be taking too many jumpers, and while he makes a decent percentage of them, he’s also a very efficient post player. If he were more willing to take it hard to the rack, he’ll get the man guarding him in more foul trouble, and open up more easy shot opportunities as his man will have to be more cautious while they are in foul trouble.

*Rudy is our second best playmaker. Note that I didn’t say player, as the #2 guy is still LaMarcus (Brandon is #1). Rudy seemingly is all over the court, and does an excellent job of coming off of screens, as well as rebounding and playing the passing lanes. He does gamble a little bit more than I’d like to see, but he’s always hustling, doing the little things to try and help this team win.

*Batum is NBA ready. While I don’t think he’s come anywhere close to reaching his potential, this kid’s defense is already more polished than any of our other wing defenders. He’s rarely out of position, and uses his long arms very well to contest shots, as well as poke the ball away from his man. I remember watching Summer League and thinking he was AT LEAST three years away from being a rotation player. I still can’t believe how much this kid has progressed in just a few short months!

*We miss Martell Webster. Since Nate has seemingly insisted on starting Outlaw, our first unit has seemed out of sync. Travis seems like a great kid, but our offense has been missing some continuity. He is definitely a very good offensive player, but he kind of has the Ron Artest – Zach Randolph black hole mentality, that every time he touches the ball, he needs to shoot. While Outlaw is not THAT bad about passing, and has done better this year, he needs to be a better catch-and-shoot player from inside the arc when he’s open, instead of always taking a dribble and allowing a defender to close on his shot. With Webster in the first unit, Outlaw can slide back to being the primary option with the second unit, where he'd have more freedom to take shots.

*Given time, Greg Oden will be a beast. It seems as though quite a few people have been jumping off the Oden Bandwagon lately. Why? Because he landed on Derek Fisher’s foot and sprained his own? Ludicrous. If that would have happened to Aldridge, would there have been the same reaction? NBA big men get injured. It happens. The kid doesn’t turn 21 until January 22nd, yet some people seem ready to write him off. Oden is a

very good passing big man, something most centers take 3 or 4 years in the league to develop. He requires constant attention in the post, as his sheer size and strength make him a target for double teams. He uses his body very well to box out, and rebounds out of his space. He also does a very good job of staying on his feet until the last second before trying to block a shot, which should be able to keep him from fouling as much as a lot of other young big men do. His offense is raw, I don’t think anyone would dispute that. At this point in his career, he kind of reminds me of Dwight Howard his first couple years in the league. Let’s also not forget Oden also needs a little bit of time to adjust to the NBA game, both with the speed of the game, and how it’s played. Despite being injured in the first four minutes of the Laker game, he was still able to keep Bynum at bay (including a SICK block of a Bynum hook shot before he sprained his foot), and grab 5 boards (3 offensive) in just under 13 minutes of play. As long as Oden comes back healthy from his foot injury, he should end up averaging close to a double-double with at least two blocks per game.

*Blake has struggled on “D”. While he’s been shooting very well this season (45.5% from the field, 50% from three), he has been getting beat off the dribble a lot, which is allowing the drive and kick for the open three (which, as mentioned above, has led to opponents shooting over 50% from distance).

So, with all that being said, what are your thoughts on this team so far?

So it looks like we've dodged a bullet for the time being...I just saw on the bottom line on ESPN that the Celtics have indeed decided to release Darius Miles...The move made sense in that they already had 15 people with guaranteed contracts, so had they decided to retain Miles, they would have had to not only pay Miles the veterans minimum, but also pay the the player they cut the remainder of their salary. Everyone take a deep breath, and enjoy this moment!

I’d venture a guess that most of you are as excited about our prospects in the upcoming NBA season as I am. With that in mind, I’d like to take a look at our team, one player at a time. I think there’s no better place to start off than with our All-Star…

Brandon Roy – The face of this franchise, Brandon Roy has been given the keys to this team, and is an unquestioned leader. Roy is coming off his first All-Star appearance, as well as arthroscopic surgery to repair his meniscus. Should Roy stay healthy this year, we should see, at worst, a repeat of last season’s numbers. Roy is the epitome of unselfish, often times deferring to his teammates more than he should. He, along with everyone else on this roster, will benefit from the return (or arrival, depending on how you look at it) of…

Greg Oden – Perhaps no rookie big man in the past five to ten years (outside of perhaps Yao Ming), will have the spotlight shone as heavily on them as it will on Oden. At seven feet tall, and most likely playing between 275-280 pounds, he will provide this team with an intimidating presence in the paint, something this team truly needs. He has the innate ability to keep his feet on the ground until the last possible minute, then sky to block a shot. Oden will be especially helpful on the offensive side of the ball. Last season, people would often cheat off of Joel Przybilla and double both Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, believing he couldn’t hurt them. There will be no such luck with Oden. His size, strength and athleticism will force teams to keep a body on him at all times, or face a constant barrage of alley-oops. Early on, Oden will need to adjust to the way NBA referees call the games, as well as the speed of the game. Should he be half of what some of us think he will be, I’d bet he’ll average no worse than a near double-double, with probably right around two blocks a game in his rookie campaign. This will definitely help his frontcourt teammate...

LaMarcus Aldridge – A classic face-up big man, this season, should have a lot more open looks at the basket. Along with Oden, he will help form one of the top inside-outside big men tandems in the NBA. While his rebounding numbers may drop slightly due to the big guy’s arrival, I expect his both his scoring and assists to go up, at least slightly. Should a double team come, Aldridge will record a lot more assists, including some of them to…

Martell Webster – Webster will most likely be our opening day starter at small forward to give the first unit a legitimate outside shooting threat. His defense should at least slightly improve from last season to this. Then again, everyone’s perimeter defense will look a little better when they have a monster like Oden backing them up. I’m willing to bet that Martell will be hoisting up between 3-4 three-pointers a game. His numbers may take a dip, as his minutes may be cut down due his new backup…

Travis Outlaw – Instant offense. That’s what comes to mind whenever I see Outlaw enter the game. He still needs to work on his ball handling, as well as his less-than-stellar on ball defense. Making the permanent move to small forward will force him to be a better ball-handler, and he will have to get much better at defending fellow threes. That being said, I can’t say that anyone from the second unit was more exciting to see enter the game than he was. Let’s not forget our own “Lieutenant Dan”…

Steve Blake – Perhaps no current TrailBlazer is more blue collar than this guy. He is the consummate professional, and is a proven three point shooter. While I don’t expect Blake to score much more than the eight points per game he did last year, he’s going to get a lot of open looks from three with our “Big Three” getting most of the attention. Blake will be our opening day starter, but might be looking at some good competition from…

Jerryd Bayless – Coming off an MVP performance from Bayless in the Vegas Summer League, some might expect Bayless to supplant Blake from his starting post, sooner rather than later. My main concern with Bayless being inserted into the starting line-up is the fact that there may not be enough shots to go around. He is similar to Brandon Roy in that he is best at making plays with the ball in his hands. I firmly expect Bayless to be at least an adequate role player for our team, along with fellow second unit player and new arrival…

Rudy Fernandez – Arguable Spain’s second best Olympic player behind Pau Gasol, Fernandez has shown he’s a true team player. I suspect he’ll provide some of the three point shooting off the bench that was lost when James Jones bolted town. He still takes too many chances on both sides of the floor, but has top flight athleticism and a willingness to put his body on the line for his team (taking charges, diving for loose balls, et cetera). Rudy should be an immediate rotation player, and, should Bayless struggle, may be playing with fellow countryman…

Sergio Rodriguez – Its possible nobody has seen as large a drop in their stock on this team than Sergio has. After his rookie season, there was a clamoring for him to replace Jarrett Jack in the starting lineup by some over-exuberant fans. Were he not playing for such a defensive minded coach, Rodriguez may already be our back-up point guard. He still needs to allow his screeners to get set (too many times Przybilla or Frye would be whistled for illegal picks through no wrong-doing of their own), as well as his decision making and defense. Should he get some playing time, he may well be threading the needle to the likes of…

Channing Frye – With the return of Oden, Frye will see a decrease in playing time, due in large part to the fact he saw a good amount of time at both power forward and center. Frye has not let that deter him, as he appears to be in the best shape of his professional career. Also adding a three point shot, Frye will still be a vital part of our “White Unit”, forming an inside-outside tandem of his own with former starter…

Joel Przybilla – Firmly entrenched as one of the leaders on this team, Przybilla adds another level of toughness and grit to this Blazers squad. Quite possibly the best back-up center in the league, Przybilla will still see a fair amount of playing time while Greg Oden adjusts to the speed and officiating of the NBA. His ability to rebound and alter shots, as well as setting bone-crushing screens will be a welcome sight for the playmakers of the “White Unit”. Should Przybilla or Oden have foul or injury troubles, we have another tough big man to take their place by the name of…

Ike Diogu – Another player whom injuries have plagued, Diogu is NOT a finesse player. Built like a Panzer, Diogu’s physicality reminds me of Utah backup PF Paul Millsap. While he may never be more than a role player in the NBA, Diogu will provide us with a physical presence at power forward that can bang with the stockier 4’s in the league. Should something catastrophic happen with our frontline, then we may witness an appearance by…

Raef LaFrentz – Injuries have robbed LaFrentz the last five years of his career. Before injuries caught up to him, LaFrentz was an excellent high post power forward with the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks. While we can’t reasonable expect anything close from him, he has transformed his game and is willing to bang with other bigs and is still an effective rebounder and adequate shooter in short bursts. Another player who’ll likely not see the court much this season is…

Nicolas Batum – “Batman” will probably not see the court much, if at all, this season. He has the length and athleticism to be an excellent defender, and the speed to run the court, but he still needs to refine his shot and get stronger. Management believes that if Batum works hard, he will be a solid player for us in the long run. Unless we’re hit by the injury bug this year (let’s hope not), I believe Batum will see some time in the D-League to refine certain areas of his developing game.

Team Expectations:

I believe that the talent is there for this squad, as is currently assembled, to make the playoffs. Whether we do that will be largely contingent on how well our players work together, as well as the development of Oden, Aldridge, Webster, Fernandez and Bayless. We will definitely have one of the best second units in the league, which will afford us the ability to get out and run more on the fast break and take advantage of our depth. Injuries will always be a concern, but as long as our “Big Three” can steer clear of extended ailments, we will have the ability to compete against any team, any night. I think our record will improve over last year, as the addition of highly touted big man Greg Oden will make our team’s defense and rebounding infinitely better. Should everything come together quickly this year, we may approach 50 wins and a playoff berth. It had better come together fast though, as we open with 15 of our first 22 on the road, with only 9 of 22 coming against teams that missed the playoffs last season. If we can manage to stay near .500 through the first month-plus of the season, playoffs should be a reasonable goal. Either way, the future looks bright. It’s a great time to be a Blazers fan. Let’s enjoy it!

There has been quite a clamoring on BlazersEdge to have Terry Porter’s number retired. I, too, firmly believe that he is definitely worthy of having his number hanging from the rafters in the Rose Garden. While I know Ben and Dave, along with some others, have brought this subject up before, I just thought I’d put a give everyone a little bit different look at it. To prove that, I’m going to give you Porter’s career numbers as a Blazer, as well as any honors he received while with Portland, and compare those to some of the other players whose jersey numbers are retired. Hopefully, by the end, those of you still unsure whether or not Porter is deserving, will have changed your mind. Also, let’s remember I’m not saying the players I’m comparing Porter to don’t deserve to have their numbers retired. I’m just giving you the facts! J

We’ll start off with a statistical comparison first:

Terry Porter (1985-1995) - 758 games, 31.6 minutes/game, 14.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.5 steals, 47.1 FG%

Lloyd Neal (1972-1979) – 435 games, 25.3 minutes, 11.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 48.5 FG%

Lionel Hollins (1975-1979) – 315 games, 29.3 minutes, 13.9 points, 2.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.9 steals, 43.5 FG%

Larry Steele (1971-1980) - 610 games, 24.2 minutes, 8.2 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 48.3 FG%

For my money, Porter had the best career in both longevity (played more games in a Blazers uniform than both Lloyd Neal and Lionel Hollins combined) and statistics (leader out of those four players in points and assists, while finishing second in both steals and rebounds).

Next, let’s look at some of their career accomplishments as Blazers:

Terry Porter - 2-time All-Star (1991, 1993), Two NBA Finals appearances (1990, 1992), Recipient of Walter J. Kennedy Citizenship Award (1993)

Lloyd Neal - 1st Team All-Rookie (1973), NBA Champion (1977)

Lionel Hollins - 1st Team All-Rookie (1976), All-Star (1977), 2-

Time All-NBA Defensive Team (1977, 1978), NBA Champion (1977)

Larry Steele – League Leader in Steals (‘73-‘74 Season), NBA Champion (1977)

The big claim here for Neal, Hollins, and Steele is that they all were on the Blazers 1977 NBA Championship team, while Terry Porter never won a title. However, Porter had more All-Star appearances (two) than did the other three combined (one, by Lionel Hollins). Porter also received the Walter J. Kennedy Citizenship Award. I believe that is just as important as any of the other statistics or awards that I’ve been comparing.

Porter was a shining example of positive leadership, both on and off of the court, and though he never won a title, definitely has as much right as some of the other former Blazers players to have his number hanging in the rafters! Kevin Pritchard, Paul Allen, Larry Miller… We Blazers fans are asking you politely…Do the right thing, and hang Terry Porter’s number from the rafters!

While I was listening to Wheels after Work today, and just prior to the end of the show, he announced that on next Monday morning (August 18th), he will undergo Laproscopic Band surgery. This is similar to a stomach staple, in that a band will be placed around the upper part of the stomach, shrinking the available space for food (very similar to gastric bypass, but according to Wheels, much safer). He also went on to say that he will not be hosting Wheels After Work this week, but will be out of the hospital the same day as the surgery.

I'm sure I speak for my fellow B-Edgers in wishing Wheels a speedy recovery! Our prayers are with you Wheels!

That’s something I’ve been wondering since the day we traded for his draft rights. One of my biggest concerns for him coming out of college was his physical strength, and I thought that his overall lack of muscle mass might get in the way of him being a top-flight power forward. There was never a doubt that the skills were there, but power forward is a very physical position, and I was worried he wouldn’t hold up well.

Obviously, he has been able to improve his strength since we acquired him on Draft Night 2006. One question I’ve been asking myself is, “How good CAN LaMarcus truly be”? For that, I’ve tried to find power forwards with similar body structure and skills sets, and for this particular piece, I’ve found three current NBA players who Aldridge may compare to, and they are Chris Bosh, Rasheed Wallace and Jermaine O’Neal. For these comparisons, I’m using the players stats from seasons when they were 21 and 22 (which was how old Aldridge was in his first two seasons) to see how they stack up.

At 21 Years Old

Aldridge: 63 games, 22.1 minutes, 9.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 1.2 blocks, 50.3% FG

O’Neal (his last season in Portland): 70 games, 12.3 minutes, 3.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.8 blocks, 48.6 FG%

Wallace(his rookie year w/Bullets): 65 games, 27.5 minutes, 10.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 blocks, 48.7 FG%

Bosh (his third year in the NBA): 70 games, 39.3 minutes, 22.5 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.1 blocks, 50.5 FG%

Player             1st        2nd       3rd        4th       Total Points

Aldridge           1          2         2         1                33

O’Neal             1*       0         2**       5                23

Wallace            0         3         4         0                33

Bosh                6         1         0         0                67

[First place = 10, second = 7, third = 4, fourth = 1]

(*-tied with Chris Bosh so there will be two first places awarded for games and no second place)

(** - tied with Rasheed Wallace for third, so there is no 4th place for blocks)

Taking a look at the numbers, Bosh is by far the best out of the four at that age. However he came to a team that was built around him. Jermaine was on our Western Conference Finals teams, which were stacked at the ‘4’ and ‘5’ with the likes of Sabonis, Brian Grant and Rasheed Wallace, and Wallace was largely Chris Webbers back-up in Washington. While the Blazers 2006-2007 season wasn’t necessarily spectacular, he was stuck behind Zach Randolph at PF (a 20-10 guy, no matter what people think about him) and Joel at center, so playing time was limited, even though we weren’t a great team.

Now let’s take a look at their respective stats the next year…

At 22 Years Old

Aldridge (first year starting): 76 games, 34.9 minutes, 17.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 blocks, 48.3 FG%

O’Neal (first year with Pacers): 81 games, 32.6 minutes, 12.9 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 2.8 blocks, 46.5 FG%

Wallace (first year in Portland): 62 games, 30.5 minutes, 15.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.0 blocks, 55.8 FG%

Bosh: 69 games, 38.5 minutes, 22.6 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.3 blocks, 49.6 FG%

Player             1st        2nd       3rd        4th       Total Points

Aldridge           0         4         3         0                40

O’Neal             2         1         1*       2                33

Wallace            1         0         2*       4                22

Bosh                4         2         1         0                58

[First place = 10, second = 7, third = 4, fourth = 1]

(*tie for 3rd in assists, so no 4th place was awarded for assists)

As with the first set of stats, the numbers again reveal that Chris Bosh is the premier player out of those four, with him taking home first place in 4 of the 7 categories at 22 years old. Aldridge and O’Neal would be in a close race for second, with Rasheed Wallace pulling up the rear.

Overall, between the two years of comparison Bosh was the clear winner with 125 points, with Aldridge claiming second at a solid 73 points, with Jermaine O’Neal narrowly edging Rasheed Wallace, with 56 compared to Sheed’s 55.

Looking at the numbers and breakdown, I firmly believe there’s no reason LaMarcus shouldn’t be able to become at least the player Jermaine and Rasheed were, though it might not be reflected in the numbers playing alongside a beast like Oden. His jump shot is at least close to on par with both Rasheed and Bosh’s, he was every bit efficient as any of the other power forwards in this comparison, and those numbers will only improve with a complementary big man like Oden next season.

It’s hard to not get excited about next year looking at all the talent Kevin Pritchard has assembled. After a 41-41 season, with last years number one overall pick Greg Oden well on his way back from microfracture, the addition of Jerryd Bayless and Rudy Fernandez, and the growth of our other young players, this team is on the verge of something truly special. It’s an exciting time to be a Blazers fan!

I know there has been a lot of talk on what to expect from Greg Oden this upcoming season, so I thought I take a slightly different look at what we could expect from The Big Guy. I believe that nothing is a better indicator of what we can expect than recent history; therefore I’ve looked at the recent draft history of centers taken #1 overall since 2002, to see where Oden might fall in.

Before Oden, the most recent center taken #1 overall was Andrew Bogut, in 2005. At the start of his rookie season, Bogut was 21 years old. Here are his rookie season stats.

28.6 Minutes/game, 9.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 0.8 blocks, 53.3 FG%, 3.2 PF

The year prior was Dwight Howard, who was 19 at the start of his rookie year. His stats were as follows.

32.6 Minutes/game, 12.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 52.0 FG%, 2.8 PF

Then there was Yao, who made his NBA debut in 2002 at the age of 22. His rookie year broke down like this.

29.1 Minutes/game, 13.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 49.8 FG%, 2.8 PF

Looking at the three centers, they all played an average of 30.1 minutes per game and averaged 11.7 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game. By their third year, all three players had improved, on average, 5.1 points, 1.8 rebounds and .4 blocks per game.

The obvious comparison to Greg would be Dwight Howard, a classic back to the basket, physical center, so I’d like to believe his stats will resemble Howard’s numbers. Howard came directly from high school to the NBA, so I believe Howard will end up having faced a bigger adjustment to the pro game than will Oden, due in large part to the fact he faced better competition before going pro. On the other side of the coin, Oden hasn’t played in a game in over a year (since the 2007 Vegas Summer League), and that long of a layoff would make anyone a little rusty, let alone someone who has yet to play in an NBA game (facing DeSagana Diop isn’t quite the same as Tim Duncan). I would say Howard has more pure athleticism than does Oden, however Oden may be stronger than Howard (that’s according to both Nate McMillan and Channing Frye).

After looking back and analyzing the other recent centers taken first overall, my best guess for Oden’s season might look something like this.

28 minutes/game, 11.3 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and a FG percentage a little over 50.

I’d love for his numbers to be higher, but Howard have fairly little talent around him his rookie year, while Oden will have the 06-07 Rookie of the Year and 2008 All-Star Brandon Roy, and a quickly improving LaMarcus Aldridge to take some of the pressure off. Also, let’s not forget that just because Oden may not instantly become an all-star, if you take into account the average growth of the three players listed above by year three (when we should be contending for an NBA title), Oden should be in the neighborhood of 16.4 points, 11.0 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game.

This is an exciting time for us in Rip City, and with a healthy Oden back next year, things are really going to get interesting!

Since we already have three point guards on our roster, I can understand why bringing Petteri over might seem to be wasting a roster spot. Should K.P. and company decide to sign him, he’d likely be competing with Sergio Rodriguez for playing time. Going on that assumption, I’ve broken down both players games, category by category, and see how a competition between those two might play out.

Passing: Arguably the most important trait for a point guard to possess, both players are at least adequate at it. Sergio has the ability to thread the needle on a bounce pass between two guys to a teammate for a dunk. Petteri, meanwhile, is not as flashy, but also not quite as prone to making the bad pass that leads to a fast break.

Edge: Sergio (slightly). While last year was definitely a step back for Spanish Chocolate (2.3 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio last season versus 2.87-1 as a rookie), he’s a proven commodity to be at least a decent passer at the NBA level, while Koponen is yet to play against top level competition on a regular basis.

Ball Handling: Along with passing, this is where point guards make their money. Both players during their most recent summer league stints, did a large majority of the ball-handling.

Edge: Sergio. While Koponen could eventually be as adept as Sergio with the ball, Rodriguez’ ability to dribble equally well with both hands makes the difference here.

Defense: The old adage, “Defense wins championships”, has definitely held true for most of the past decade. Even the L*kers of the early 2000’s played solid defense. Throw in teams like San Antonio, Detroit and, most recently, the Boston Celtics, and it really underscores how important a facet defense truly is.

Edge: Petteri. We’ve yet to see if he can do it on a consistent basis against top competition, but he’s shown a willingness to work hard on both ends of the court, and also get back on ‘D’ to prevent the fast break during Summer League.

Shooting: Everybody who has ever played basketball enjoys seeing their shot fall through the hoop. For these guys, its no different.

Edge: Koponen (slightly). Both players in their most recent summer league (Sergio in 2007, Petteri in 2008) showed flashes of brilliance and also areas of their shot that need work. Both players percentage were similar, and you could argue that Sergio had more to work with in those games than did Petteri this year. This could change to a push or even advantage Rodriguez if shooting coach John Townsend was able to get Sergio’s mechanics straightened away.

Stats: The only fair way I can seem to relate the two players is by comparing their most recent summer league exploits. So for that, we’ll use Sergio’s 2007 and Petteri’s 2008 VSL stats.

Rodriguez:

28.0 Minutes, 7.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.8 steals, 3.6 turnovers, 38.9 FG%.

Koponen:

31.0 Minutes, 13.2 points, 2.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 3.2 turnovers, 38.0 FG%.

Edge: Push. Rodriguez had the edge in assists and steals, as well as a slightly higher field goal percentage. But if you look at the talent surrounding the two players, you’d see Sergio had Martell for five games, as well as both Aldridge and Oden for two games. While Petteri did play alongside the VSL Most Outstanding Rookie in Jerryd Bayless took some pressure off of him, having next to no frontcourt help gave Sergio an advantage.

Intagibles: On one hand, you have someone in Sergio who sees the floor very well, and can (sometimes) squeeze a ball through a small passing lane, but can also be a little bit of a headcase if things aren’t going his way. On the other hand, you have a big point guard in Koponen, who works hard on defense and has a more fundamentally sound shot and seems to take things more positively if they aren’t going his way. He’s also shown the desire to compete against the best, as he’s bypassing millions of dollars by wanting to play for Portland right now instead of taking the big money overseas.

Edge: Koponen (slightly). With a couple years of learning under a big former PG in Nate McMillan, he could at the very least be a very solid backup PG and has shown the willingness to work on both ends of the court, something Sergio still has trouble grasping at.

Conclusion:

Competition breeds success, so in that I hope that we do decide to bring Koponen over. It would push both him and Sergio to become better, which can only make the rest of our team better in both the short and long runs. Also, since we already invested three million dollars for his rights, he’d be a low risk, high reward kind of player (he’d make right around $900K this season). Should KP and company decide to do just that, we should have an exciting battle for the number three PG spot this year!

Since I wanted to join one of the teams a fellow B-Edger created, but was too late, I decided to create a team of my own. As of right now, I'm the only member, so I could use a bunch of players!! Lets try and get some training done so we can compete, but if you can't do it all the time, no biggie! Anyways, here's the information

Team Name: B-Edge Odenizers

Password: oden4roy

Lets try and get this thing rolling! I really need something to pass the time until the preseason gets going...Can't believe its still three months until the season starts! Hopefully, I'll see some of you on there!!

-kyle

I know we've only got to see him in one summer league game so far this year, but he definitely showed signs of at least having the ability to be a serviceable backup. So, I was wondering what everone here on B.E. thought about bringing him over. If we don't, there are several European teams offering him 4 or 5 year deals for fairly substantial sums, and we could risk losing him for good, or at least the next 4-5 years...So, what should we do?

This may have been covered before, but I figured I'd ask all you other BE'ers out there what you thought about the short and long-term prospects of Jerryd Bayless starting for us!

Bayless is more of a combo guard than a traditional point guard. He's undersized to guard the SG, but he creates his own shot very well off the dribble, and gets to the free throw line very well (7 FT attempts per game his only year at Arizona). The problem with that is both he and Brandon Roy are at their best with the ball in their hands.

On the flip side, he would be able to guard opposing teams' point guards, which allows Brandon to not have to expend more energy guarding a quick PG (ie Mr. Longoria, CP3). He also has the ability to play passing lanes and gamble more since we'll have the Big Man back next year to guard the basket. He's also a good three-point shooter (just about 40 percent last year for UA), which would be able to stretch the defense and make teams pay for doubling Aldridge, Oden or Roy.

So what I'm asking is, when (if ever) do you see Jerryd Bayless starting for our beloved TrailBlazers?

According to Casey Holdahl, it looks as though we've added at least one player to our summer league. He's Steven Hill, a 7-footer out of Arkansas. Here's the link

http://trailblazerscentercourt.blogspot.com/2008/06/hair-comes-summer-league.html

I also have a link to his stats here...

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/profile?playerId=22246

Thought my fellow B-E'ers would like to know who'll be joining Petteri, Freeland, Bayless and possibly Batum in Vegas next month!

With all the excitement building for the upcoming season, its easy to fall into the trap of wanting to win right now. However, we're probably at least one more year away before we can be considered serious contenders in the Western Conference. Bearing that in mind, its my belief that we should stand pat with the roster we have, at least for a while, and see what exactly we have. Here's why I believe we should at least consider waiting until mid-season to make a trade...

Championship teams don't need all-stars at every position. The 88-89 and 89-90 Pistons had Isiah Thomas, Joe Dumars, Bill Laimbeer, John Salley and Dennis Rodman (outside of Isiah and Dumars, not anyone anybody would consider an all-star player). The L*kers teams of the early 2000's had two all-star talents in Kobe and Shaq, and a lot of complimentary players (Robert Horry, Derek Fisher, Ron Harper, etc). Even the "Showtime" L*kers had only three real all-star players (Magic, Kareem and Worthy). ot many guys that could be considered all-stars). The Bulls teams of the 1990's didn't have all-star caliber starters. It was MJ and Pippen (throw Horace Grant and Dennis Rodman if ya want to), and a bunch of guys who did the little things that championship teams do.

We had enough talent last year to go 41-41 being the 3rd youngest team in NBA history. Throw in the fact that we're going to add a healthy Oden to the starting lineup, and an exciting playmaker like Rudy Fernandez to our white unit, and that immediately makes us a better team. That alone should be good enough for another handful wins (hopefully, at least). Then factor in organic growth of our other young players like Trout, Martell and Frye, along with the acquisitions of Jerryd Bayless (who KP had as the 4th best player in the draft) and Batum (another guy with freakish athleticism and all the tools to be a lock down perimeter defender), and we have the potential to be a 8-10 year contender for NBA titles.

I realize that at some point, whether its halfway through this season or after this season, we may have to make a decision on who to hold onto between Outlaw and Martell. There's no sense in rushing to judgement without at least seeing what each of them can do this upcoming season. Barring a ridiculous trade offer for a perennial all-star, another 45-50 more games should help us get a little bit better of an idea as to who best fits our long-term plans and can play best alongside Roy, LMA and Oden. Raef's expiring contract will still be there at the trade deadline this year, and if a too-good-to-be-true trade offer comes along, I'd be more than fine moving it, along with another piece or two (Outlaw, Webster, Frye). I am just weary of sacrificing too much cap space in return on a player who's not as important to our long-term success as any of our Big Three would be. The last thing I, or any other Blazer fan would want to see, is another team swooping in and outbidding us on our franchise players. Long-term extensions are for Oden, Roy and LMA are our #1 priority.

There has been a clamoring to add a veteran to the roster to help the team get over the hump. I firmly believe we have enough leadership and experience on the roster as its currently assembled. Steve Blake won a national championship at Maryland and Joel Przybilla brings the intensity and blue collar attitude, all of which are admirable attributes, sorely needed for teams that want to win titles. Brandon Roy leads us by example, as he plays hard on every possession. His effort is the same whether we're winning by 40 or losing by 40. We can only assume Oden will provide a similar leadership when he hits the court next year.

I've also heard people saying we need more perimeter defense. While I would agree with that to a certain extent, it also makes everyone on the perimeters' jobs a lot easier having a beast like Oden patrolling the middle. Throw in Przybilla and Aldridge's (as well as Frye to a certain extent) shot-blocking ability, and teams will be a little more weary of driving the lane knowing there's a good chance their shot will be blocked. Remember the 1999 and 2003 Spurs with Duncan and Robinson? We'll have that, except both will be in their primes at the same time!

As long as we keep our own version of the "Big Three" in Roy, LMA and Oden (who'll all hit their prime at roughly the same time) surrounded by solid players, these next 8-12 years should be a blast for us all! Go Blazers!!

I was just looking for potential trades for the Blazers to make, and i think i found one that would fill our hole at PG for sure, as well as give us a defensive stopper against SG and SF that kill us on a regular basis.

Portland trades:

Martell Webster, Raef LaFrentz, 1st Round Draft Pick (13th overall)

to Milwaukee for

Mo Williams and Bobby Simmons

Why Portland should do it: Though I would personally hate to see Martell go, we'd acquire a sure fire starting point guard (averaged 17.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg and 6.3 apg last season) and a veteran SF in Simmons who could be our defensive stopper (his contract isn't great, but it expires after 2009-2010 season) and provide us with a solid backup that could either hold the fort another year until Outlaw is ready or come off the bench and strengthen our perimeter 'D'.

Why Milwaukee should do it: If they pull the trigger on this trade, they get cap relief after next season, as well as two of the top 13 picks in this years draft. With Ramon Sessions playing very well at the end of the season, he may be a better fit under Scott Skiles. With two first round picks, they could potentially grab both Gallinari and Russell Westbrook, both of whom fill needs.

Let me know what ya'all think!