SBNation.com User Blog: lemonbrigade

Summer Draft and Free Agency Plans

lemonbrigade — Tue, 09 Apr 2013 20:25:33 -0000

Editor's Note: Front-paged. Let us know what you think of these plans! - LJ

1. Draft a C or PG

We probably won't have a starter caliber player in mid-first round right off the bat, so we'll need to be looking for the long term and still sign starters for the position we draft. Luckily for us, there should be multiple quality Cs (Kelly Olynyk, Rudy Gobert, Alex Len, Mason Plumlee, Isaiah Austin, Gorgui Dieng) and several PGs (Michael Carter-Williams, C.J. McCollum) potentially available. It's not a high quality draft, but it is a big draft, with a bunch of solid 7-footers coming out.

2. Find a starting caliber PG (assuming no CP3)

Jarrett Jack and Eric Bledsoe are starter-caliber PGs that have been coming off the bench behind stars. Calderon, Billups and Teague are also worth looking into (Teague is restricted, but might be worth a bid). NO BRANDON JENNINGS. PLEASE.

3. Extend a QO Collison

We all have our beefs with Collison's decisionmaking, but he'd be a high-quality bench sparkplug and, worst-case scenario, a decent temporary starter. His next salary is only $3.3m, so maybe we luck out and nobody bids much more than that. Otherwise, let him walk.

4. If Mayo does not opt out, great. If Mayo opts out and wants more than $20m/3yr, let him walk and find someone else.

Mayo would be a great bench SG, but he has been unreliable in the clutch, has not jived well with Dirk and his production has gone from brilliant/MIP quality to utterly mediocre. I'd prefer a player like Tony Allen. Tyreke Evans would be worth an RFA bid for. J.R. Smith would also be worth a look and probably be cheaper than Mayo, though he's a gamble on court and in the locker room.

5. Keep Marion unless a great deal appears from a team willing to trade a quality asset to shed salary or something.

Marion is still one of the best bang-for-your-buck SFs in the game. His efficiency is in line with many players making $2-8m more than him. And he'll expire at the end of the year, so we'll still be able to compete in 2014 free agency or use him as a trade asset at the deadline. He's a better deal than trading him so we can pay Josh Smith a max contract (unless that is what is required to sign Dwight... if the math would add up.)

6. Find a C with great defensive and rebounding skills that will complement Dirk's game. (Assuming no D12)

Dalembert, Splitter, Okafor and Pekovic would all be quality Cs that fit this standard for better or worse. If Brand will come back for cheap, he'd make a great bench 5. I'd also see if Greg Oden is healthy again and consider rolling those dice.

6. Re-sign Brandan Wright for 5 years, $20m

He should be our primary backup PF from here on out. He is also insurance in case Dirk goes down with more injuries, as is unfortunately likely at his age. At $4m a year, with his production, he'd be a quality trade asset.

Possible Starting Lineup #1: Jarrett Jack, Tyreke Evans, Marion, Dirk, Sam Dalembert

Possible Starting Lineup #2: Jose Calderon, Tony Allen (would offset Calderon's bad D), Marion, Dirk, Tiago Splitter

Possible Starting Lineup #3: Chauncey Billups, J.R. Smith, Marion, Dirk, Nikola Pekovic

Bench: Collison, Carter, Crowder, Wright, Sarge, rookie C

Editor's Note: Front-paged. Let us know what you think of these plans! - LJ

Analyzing the 2012-13 Mavericks

lemonbrigade — Wed, 25 Jul 2012 04:19:50 -0000

If there is any lingering doubt remaining that the Mavericks aren't significantly better on paper than last year or that the lineup doesn't compare favorably to the championship lineup in 2010-11, I hope this will be the post to convince you otherwise. And we may not even be done yet. If there is one problem with this team, it is that we are TOO deep and some won't be happy with their low minutes compared to last year. We can possibly flip some of that depth for quality if the front office continues their creative streak.

In this analysis, I'm excluding the rookies, for whom I have no NBA-level stats to accurately analyze and in my mind are icing on the cake at this point.

Depth Chart

PG: Darren Collison, Delonte West, Jared Cunningham

SG: O.J. Mayo, Rodrigue Beaubois, Dahntay Jones, Dominique Jones

SF: Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Jae Crowder, (Dahntay Jones)

PF: Dirk Nowitzki, (Elton Brand), Brandan Wright

C: Chris Kaman, Elton Brand, (Brandan Wright), Bernard James

Age

Our average age dropped from 29.43 last year to 27.27 this year.

In this analysis, I'm excluding the rookies, for whom I have no NBA-level stats to accurately analyze and in my mind are icing on the cake at this point.

Depth Chart

PG: Darren Collison, Delonte West, Jared Cunningham

SG: O.J. Mayo, Rodrigue Beaubois, Dahntay Jones, Dominique Jones

SF: Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Jae Crowder, (Dahntay Jones)

PF: Dirk Nowitzki, (Elton Brand), Brandan Wright

C: Chris Kaman, Elton Brand, (Brandan Wright), Bernard James

Age

Our average age dropped from 29.43 last year to 27.27 this year.

Minutes and Estimated Stats

Now, summing all these players' average minutes from last year and dividing by 5 players on court at a time = a per position average of 58.34 minutes per game. And we're not even factoring the rookies in. In other words, each position will require a combined 10 minute sacrifice in playing time compared to last year. None of the players we've added played less than 16 minutes per game last year, meaning competition for playing time will be fierce – especially at the guard positions.

We have only two players who played under 1000 total minutes last year (Wright 791, Dominique Jones 268). Not counting Dominique Jones, who typically only played in garbage time, our average minutes per game last year was 25.75. That's a pretty good argument for dealing some of our decent role players who may not have a place for upgrades. And as you will see, pretty much every player on the roster is a quality player.

Because there are so many more quality players demanding minutes than previous years and so many versatile players that can play multiple positions, I calculated estimated minutes played this year based on the formula (average minutes per game / (summed team average minutes per game / 5)) * 48. Again, this number is obviously disregarding any minutes rookies will get.

Obviously DoJo won't play 6 minutes every night, our rookies will likely get a few minutes and we can fully expect Dirk, Mayo, Marion, Collison, Brand and Kaman to play a little more than calculated here but this gives us an objective baseline with which to estimate points, rebounds, assists, etc.

Estimated Stat Lines per Game

Name	Mins	PPG	RPG	APG	Pts/36M	Reb/36M	Ast/36M	PER
Dirk Nowitzki	27.6	17.8	5.6	1.8	23.2	7.3	2.4	21.7
Darren Collison	25.8	8.5	2.6	3.9	11.9	3.6	5.5	13.6
Shawn Marion	25.1	8.8	6.1	1.7	12.6	8.7	2.5	15.0
Chris Kaman	24.0	10.8	6.4	1.8	16.2	9.6	2.7	15.3
Elton Brand	23.8	9.0	5.9	1.3	13.7	8.9	2.0	18.0
O.J. Mayo	22.1	10.4	2.6	2.1	16.9	4.3	3.4	14.7
Vince Carter	20.8	8.3	2.8	1.9	14.4	4.8	3.2	13.6
Delonte West	19.8	7.8	1.9	2.7	14.3	3.4	4.7	15.3
Rodrigue Beaubois	17.9	7.3	2.3	2.4	14.8	4.7	4.8	15.3
Dahntay Jones	13.3	4.4	1.5	0.8	11.8	4	2.2	10.3
Brandan Wright	13.3	5.7	2.9	0.2	15.4	7.9	0.6	21.6
Dominique Jones	6.7	2.2	1.1	1.1	11.8	5.9	5.6	11.8
Est. 2012 TEAM		101.1	41.6	21.6
2010 TEAM		100.2	41.4	23.8
2011 TEAM		95.8	42.8	20.9

Because of the depth and minute limitations, nobody's individual stat line (including Dirk's) looks particularly sexy at face value. But it's a team game. Overall this team stat line looks relatively better than either of the past two years.

Per 36 minute stats indicate Dirk - Kaman - Mayo - Roddy - Carter is the lineup that scores the most, averaging a combined 85.5 points in three quarters. However, there are multiple possible lineups that are only a point or two different. That's comparable to our most point-productive lineup last year (Terry - Roddy - Dirk - Carter - Wright) which would have averaged 85 per 36m.

Shooting Percentages

Year	Avg Indiv FG%	Avg Indiv 3PT%*	Avg Indiv FT%	Team FG%	Team 3PT%	Team FT%
2010	46.1%	36.1%	78.1%	47.5%	36.5%	77.7%
2011	44.9%	31.5%	75.8%	44.3%	33.9%	77.1%
2012	44.4%	35.3%	80.5%	44.8%	35.3%	81.7%

Team Percentages are calculated by total combined shots made / total combined attempts. These are probably the more accurate stats to gauge who is actually be on the court shooting - and in all three categories we have improved from last year's squad, although only FT% beats the 2010 lineup. (Note: Avg Individual 3PT% only includes players with more than 10 attempts.)

PER (Player Efficiency Rating)

That somewhat controversial advanced stat created by John Hollinger is overused and not the end-all in player efficiency, but it is certainly nifty for comparison. It does not show many intangibles on defense, etc. but it does give a gauge for how a player's usage of their minutes translates to their stat line. Our average player efficiency rating based on last year's numbers is 15.52, ranging from Dirk Nowitzki (21.7) at best to Dahntay Jones (10.3) at worst. As of right now, we have zero players with single digit PERs last year. Our projected starting lineup has an average PER of 16.1. Our second team (West-Beaubois-Carter-Wright-Brand) has an even better average PER of 16.8.

For accuracy, I also calculated the PERs for only players who played over 400 minutes, to remove garbage time players and outliers in order to get to the meat of the rotation.

Team	Avg PER	Avg PER>400m	Starting Lineup	2nd Team
This Year	15.5	15.9	16.1	16.8
Last Year	13	15.2	15.3	13.8
Championship team	14.3	14.5	16.6	14.1
Miami Heat	11.2	14.9	19.9	9.8
OKC Thunder	13	14.1	17.3	12.5
LA Lakers	12.8	14.1	18.7	10.4
Indiana Pacers	15	14.2	17.6	12.1
Denver Nuggets	16.3	16.6	18.6	14.9
San Antonio Spurs	13.6	16.2	17.7	17.8

Our starting lineup is below the contender average, although obviously better than last year's. However, our second team is well above any other contender besides San Antonio, who were and still are a ridiculously deep and high quality team. Note our absolute worst PER (Dahntay's at 10.3) is still more efficient than your average Miami 2nd string player and about even with your average Lakers 2nd string player.

Now, these comparisons vs. contenders look fine when maintaining last year's stats straight up. But what if Collison and Mayo improve with starting roles and offensive systems more suitable to their games? What if Brand and Kaman become more productive with Dirk stealing the defensive attention in the frontcourt? I can imagine our efficiency could only improve when Carlisle works his magic.

Summary

In my next post I'll be running some comparisons for more advanced stats like win shares, offensive and defensive ratings, etc. But all in all there should be no question that we have a chance at contention. While we may not have the most stellar numbers or efficiency based upon last year's statistics, our depth goes all the way to the end of the bench with quality players.

With the right combination of luck, sacrifice, health, chemistry, rest and creativity, I see no reason why Carlisle should not be able to build a contender out of this Lake Baikal-deep team. I also see no reason why anyone should think we'll miss the playoffs or that we've somehow gotten worse. Our middling team last year was swept by the best young team in the West last season, but by the least convincing margin in each game. With a little extra production, why couldn't we give them a run for their money?

Stein: Delonte's coming back, y'all!!!

lemonbrigade — Tue, 24 Jul 2012 23:52:36 -0000

Stein: Delonte's coming back, y'all!!!

Are we the deepest team in the league now? I think so, but I'm a homer.

The Final Roster Slot: West, Miles or Belinelli? Birdman, Darko?

lemonbrigade — Tue, 17 Jul 2012 19:48:20 -0000

Assuming we still have a room exception after the Mayo signing and considering we have generous depth and quality at just about every position now (four combo guards in Mayo, Roddy, DoJo and Cunningham, two SG-SF wings in Carter and Dahntay Jones and two PF-C crossovers in Wright and Brand), what should we do with our last $2.5M dollars?

We will discuss our ~~four~~ three best options: ~~Anthony Randolph~~, C.J. Miles, Delonte West and Marco Belinelli. No guarantee any of these guys would take the room exception, of course...

~~Anthony Randolph~~ (Signed with Denver)
PF/C, 23 yo, 6'11"
7.4 pts, 3.6 rebounds in 15.2 minutes with the Timberwolves last year, 17.60 PER

Adds further size, athleticism and depth at PF and C. Most efficient player on this list. Hometown kid. Could combine with Wright if we're trying for a younger, more athletic garbage time frontcourt. With Brand and Kaman's injury histories this might be a wise investment. Young and raw, however.

C.J. Miles
SF, 25 yo, 6'6"
9 pts, 2.1 rebs in 20.4 minutes for the Jazz, 12.46 PER

Another hometown kid, adds depth at SF. Probably would be 3rd or 4th option at that position behind Marion, Carter and Dahntay Jones.

Delonte West
PG/SG, 28 yo, 6'3"
9.6 pts, 3.2 assists, 2.1 rebounds in 24.1 minutes for the Mavs. 15.35 PER

Fan favorite, Wet Willie distributor and real hustle guy. Would likely be the first guy off the bench to back up Collison at PG. Downside is that we already have a crowded backcourt with plenty of talented combo guards just like him. Upside is that he already knows the system and we know what he can do.

Marco Belinelli
SG, 26 yo, 6'5"
11.8 PPG, 37.7 3PT% 12.00 PER

Would be our best three point shooter. With Mayo switching over to PG, would be very useful at the end of close games where we need quick points. Of the four, probably the least likely to take the room exception though. Also the least efficient of the four.

---

Update: Anthony Randolph has been signed to Denver, who amnestied Chris "Birdman" Andersen to make room. Andersen is a rugged, tough veteran defender who gave Dirk fits in our 2009 series. If he clears waivers, should we make a go? The recent raid of his house by the Internet Crimes Against Children unit and subsequent suspension by Denver until the investigation is complete would complicate everything about this pick up, but as a player he'd be exactly what we need. He was also a beloved fan favorite in Denver, at least before this went down.

Another option is the infamous disappointment Darko Milicic, who cleared waivers and may now be looking for a minimum deal. Indications are he'll go to Boston or the Clippers, but he wouldn't be the worst option to fill our last slot either.

Honestly, I'm thinking Delonte would be ideal but he deserves more than we can offer. If he comes back, we can be eternally grateful for his loyalty, but I wouldn't blame him for taking more money and a multi-year contract either.

Poll

Which player should we use our room exception on for our final roster slot?

Delonte West

513 votes

Marco Bellinelli

108 votes

Chris "Birdman" Andersen

90 votes

Darko Milicic

43 votes

C.J. Miles

68 votes

Someone else? Tell us in comments.

15 votes

Save for later opportunities and waived players

40 votes

877 votes | Poll has closed

Mavs are Deep and Complete

lemonbrigade — Tue, 17 Jul 2012 16:43:46 -0000

Mavs have been the target of relentless derision by blowhard pundits and fans and trolls of other teams for their failure to get another superstar this summer and fulfill their stated goal of making Dirk the "second best option."

Even as the front office made the best value plays of the summer, the haters are all still predicting us as a 7th or 8th seed first round exit. However, with the addition of Mayo filling our last two lineup needs (a legitimate starting SG and a consistent three point threat) I will go on record now claiming that we are certainly a contender for another ring next summer. I may even put money on it, because we’re being so severely underrated right now.

In 2011, we didn’t need two superstars because we had a "complete", veteran team where just about every need and role was filled and had a backup plan. The Big Three model is in vogue now, but our model already beat that model with a team that had every player in his right place, with (if we’re being honest) below average, inconsistent role players like J.J. Barea and DeShawn Stevenson outperforming at the right time in their contract year. Even Chandler was seen as a consolation prize for that summer’s failed free agency plans to land a second star. Nobody would have expected Chandler and an end-of-the-line veteran in Peja Stojakovic alone to turn a first round exit team the year before into a champion, especially one which lost their most promising young player (Rodrigue Beaubois) and their third option (Caron Butler) to season-ending injuries. Looking back, it’s still amazing that we actually did it. You can’t honestly blame the doubters at the time for saying we couldn’t be the favorite, as most of us would have agreed.

Well, the doubters and haters are back as always, because we haven't yet been able to make a fashionable, sexy, league-changing superstar move yet. Yet on paper, there’s absolutely no reason why our current squad won't be significantly better than the 2011 championship team. On paper and if healthy, this lineup looks better and deeper and has a much higher ceiling. And even more players are in contract years than ever before, which usually leads to outperformance. Perhaps there’s something worth keeping about this one-year contract, depth-based model Cuban and Nelson have been following?

We have a superstar (Dirk), an abundance of former-star veterans (Kaman, Brand, Marion, Carter) and young prospects with All Star-caliber talent that has been glimpsed but hasn’t been fully attained yet (Collison, Mayo, Beaubois). And like in 2011, I truly think the Mavericks will surprise everyone as we are arguably the deepest team in the league.

Consider this: the player in our lineup with the worst efficiency rating last year (Dominique Jones – PER 10.3) is currently the stats leader in the entirety of Summer League and has led our team to commanding victories in our first two games. That’s right: arguably our worst player has a better stat line and FG% than Portland’s new starting PG Damien Lillard (the 2nd best stat line in summer league) and all the other feted potential superstar rookies like Bradley Beal and young, experienced talents like Kahwi Leonard. Small sample size of course, but if Dominique Jones and athletic, underrated rookies like Jared Cunningham and Jae Crowder are our “worst case scenario”, we’re in a very good place.

If we can end up signing Delonte West, a 2nd team of West – Beaubois – Carter – Wright – Brand would be arguably the best 2nd squad in the league, with an average PER of 16.8 last year and every player except Carter above the overall league average of 15. Now, PER is an overrated stat, but it still provides a baseline to compare ourselves with the rest of the league. Denver was considered the best bench in the league last season and their second squad (Miller – Hamilton – Brewer – Harrington – Koufos) had an average PER of exactly 15. Even now, without West and with Dahntay Jones (PER 11.87, our second “worst” player), we’d have a better average PER at 15.8 than last year's second squad in Denver. Essentially, our depth chart is already stronger than Denver’s - and Denver does not have a Dirk Nowitzki-caliber superstar.

While we certainly don’t have Chandler’s dominating defensive prowess, we have in his place two veteran double-double machines and underrated defenders in Brand and Kaman. Kaman had as many double doubles per game played last year as Chandler, and I expect his productivity to increase with Dirk attracting the stronger frontcourt defender from opposing teams. Brand, Kaman, Dirk and Marion all made the league’s top 50 rebounders list last year, so we should be a league-leading team in that department.

And instead of Jason Kidd and Jason Terry, we now have in their place two 24-year olds with superstar-caliber talent and athleticism whose “declined” production last year in bench roles still matched the production and efficiency of our 2011 tandem: Darren Collison (11.9 pts per 36) and O.J. Mayo (16.9 points per 36).

Both players needed a system change because they were out of place in Indiana and Memphis’s respective systems and lost their starting spots to players that, if not as talented, meshed with those systems better. With Collison running the pick and roll with Dirk, Barea-style, and Mayo as the three point shooter to kick out to, there’s no reason why these two shouldn’t blossom here and regain their step in Dallas's system. I wouldn’t be surprised if one or the other are Most Improved Player candidates and maybe even All Stars, as Dirk is one of those superstars who truly makes his teammates better and Carlisle knows how to bring out the best in players that have been playing under their potential, like he did with Chandler in 2011 and Brandan Wright last year.

The only potential concern for me is the injury histories of both Kaman and Brand. Those two are so critical for solidifying the lineup’s depth, and losing either would probably end any championship chances this year. But that’s always risk on any contending squad, and both are almost certainly better risks to take than any other options we realistically had. Chandler wasn't known for stellar health before he came here – a trade for him was rejected on medical grounds by OKC (to their later chagrin) just the season before our championship year. We are fortunate our medical and training team is one of the best in the league. I’d still love to make a minimum contract gamble on Greg Oden and see what they can do with him.

We match up well with Denver, Memphis, the Clippers and even the Spurs. It’s far too early to say whether or not we should be favored over these teams for the #3 or 4 slot in the Western conference, but we should be considered a candidate for one of those slots. And if you’re in the top half of your conference, you are definitely a ring contender. All it takes is the right amount of momentum, luck and cohesion to push you over the top.

I intend to follow up later with a post comparing stats and advanced stats of our existing lineup with last year’s and 2011’s teams, as well as other contenders. But as of right now we have no reason to reject optimism going forward. Compared to last year, our average age has dropped three years while pretty much every team stat has improved with the lineup changes we’ve made so far. It’s a very good place to be considering the doomsday aura everyone felt a week ago.

Cuban and Nelson may have the last laugh and shock everyone by winning it all with a deep, complete team – again. Not to mention our cap space, D12 chances, etc. next summer.

Poll

Are the 2012-13 Mavs better and deeper on paper than the 2011 Championship squad?

Yes

122 votes

No

69 votes

191 votes | Poll has closed

Hello, Optimism!

lemonbrigade — Fri, 13 Jul 2012 03:47:37 -0000

See, I told you not to panic!

This year's lineup is coming together quite nicely, considering most people here believed we were a near-lottery team before Nellie reaffirmed his genius by making us both short term contenders to be a playoff dark horse - and long term contenders for our future behind Dirk's superstar replacement.

We are currently well placed to win either Elton Brand or Luis Scola (or both?) off amnesty waivers and still have a few cap tools to fill in our remaining holes:

Backup center: Hopefully this will be filled by the amnesty bid for former number 1 pick Elton Brand, who will also likely back up Dirk at PF with Brandan Wright and Bernard James alternating shifts where necessary. If we lose bids for both Brand and Luis Scola, we still have about $8 million in salary to use to add a bit more depth than Brandan Wright and Bernard James.
Legitimate starting/closing SG: Rodrigue Beaubois and Vince Carter probably aren't what we want starting and closing out games. Re-sign Delonte West and/or pick up a...
Dedicated 3 point threat. Dirk, Darren Collison and Carter were all about 36% 3PT shooters and Dahntay Jones was a 42.9% 3PT shooter last year. While Dahntay may play a nice, complementary Stevenson-esque role, it would be nice to have one more dedicated three-ball threat; a player like Marco Bellinelli (37.7%), Randy Foye (38.6%) or John Lucas (39.3%) (who would also be a reliable backup PG) would make up for the loss of Terry's 37.8% 3-pt shooting and help us could close out games in close situations.

Despite these holes, the front office deserves a belated round of applause for free agency so far...

See, I told you not to panic!

We are currently well placed to win either Elton Brand or Luis Scola (or both?) off amnesty waivers and still have a few cap tools to fill in our remaining holes:

Backup center: Hopefully this will be filled by the amnesty bid for former number 1 pick Elton Brand, who will also likely back up Dirk at PF with Brandan Wright and Bernard James alternating shifts where necessary. If we lose bids for both Brand and Luis Scola, we still have about $8 million in salary to use to add a bit more depth than Brandan Wright and Bernard James.
Legitimate starting/closing SG: Rodrigue Beaubois and Vince Carter probably aren't what we want starting and closing out games. Re-sign Delonte West and/or pick up a...
Dedicated 3 point threat. Dirk, Darren Collison and Carter were all about 36% 3PT shooters and Dahntay Jones was a 42.9% 3PT shooter last year. While Dahntay may play a nice, complementary Stevenson-esque role, it would be nice to have one more dedicated three-ball threat; a player like Marco Bellinelli (37.7%), Randy Foye (38.6%) or John Lucas (39.3%) (who would also be a reliable backup PG) would make up for the loss of Terry's 37.8% 3-pt shooting and help us could close out games in close situations.

Despite these holes, the front office deserves a belated round of applause for free agency so far...

Zero bad contracts and more cap space available for next summer with the Haywood amnesty.
Likely almost $30 million in expiring contracts and team options that can be used in trade deadline moves to get players we want from teams looking for cap relief.
Far younger, faster, more athletic in the backcourt. We have a multiple combo guard types (Roddy, Cunningham, DoJo) and wings that can switch between SG and SF (Carter, Dahntay Jones). Hopefully we'll add yet another combo guard in Delonte West, and the SG and backup PG positions will be a constant competition for playing time.
Far better offensively in the frontcourt – probably the best offensive frontcourt rotation in team history if we get Brand. About even with last year defensively, probably little better if we get Brand.
One of the best things about an improved frontcourt on offense is that the best big defender will usually take Dirk, leaving Kaman or Brand/Scola open to score more efficiently than they did previously. Also, our FT% from our centers is bound to take a big jump without Haywood's bricklaying skills.
Still have the most important pieces of last year's core (Dirk's offense and Marion's defense), without the deadweight of Haywood and Odom and the age-related production declines and liabilities of Kidd and Terry (as much as we'll miss those two emotionally).
Preliminary stat crunching shows marked improvement in just about every statistical and efficiency measurement from last year.
Proven once again that we truly have a stellar front office that can turn water into wine. This will be important to convince big name free agents to sign here with an empty roster of Dirk, Marion (if he's not traded), Cunningham and $26 million in cap space.
Since it's likely 12 out of 15 of our players would be in potential contract years, they have additional motivation to perform.

To be honest, I was really never convinced paying Deron Williams + Dirk + Marion 80% of our cap space would be enough to make us a legitimate championship contender. Instead, with a few more feasible pieces we have a deep, well rounded, hungry team that actually lines up rather nicely next to our championship team's rotation.

While we don't have a dominant defensive C like Chandler, we'd have two bigs besides Dirk that can consistently put up double-doubles. Kaman was tied for 31st in the league for most double-doubles with 15, and was just as likely to put up a double-double per game played last year as Chandler (32% of both players' games were double-doubles). Brand and Dirk were both tied at 45th with 11. And I'm hoping their production improves even more with more options defenders have to account for.

If Darren Collison can return to his rookie offensive numbers or better with more playing time, a good system and a great frontcourt to feed to, and if he can keep up with Westbrook and the like on D, he will be an improvement over both Kidd and J.J. Barea.

The only position that doesn't hold up to the championship squad is shooting guard, but there's a lot of pieces there that might work out. Roddy, West and Cunningham all have enormous potential, and Jones and Carter have plenty to bring to the table as well. I can't see SG as a big weakness if it remains deep, athletic and competitive for playing time. As mentioned, Dahntay may be a feasible starter if he can bring what Stevenson did – gritty defense and solid three-ball.

The point is, there's plenty of cause for optimism. Training camp will help our new players get our system in place, unlike last year. With a successful amnesty bid (or two) and avoiding major injuries, I think we have a team that can hold its own against the Clippers, Grizzlies, Nuggets, etc. and, with the right dose of luck and chemistry, maybe even give LAL, SAS and OKC a run for their money. We also still have a team that may have a second big name star or two this time next summer. You just never know.

Don't Panic!

lemonbrigade — Fri, 06 Jul 2012 22:01:20 -0000

Here we are in a dark, scary Mavericks universe. Rejected by Deron Williams and Steve Nash. Terry's gone. Kidd even rubbed salt into our wound by toying with us before rejecting us. Now it's just Dirk, Marion and the D-Leaguers, as some have half-jokingly said. Many fans are calling for Mark Cuban to be thrown into a shark tank and for Donnie Nelson's head on a pike. Even more drastically, they are calling for trading Dirk and starting over from scratch.

The panic is understandable. We're hurt. We've been spoiled with 12 straight, great playoff years, two Finals tries and finally a championship less than thirteen short months ago. Now, all of a sudden we'll be lucky (or unlucky, depending on your perspective) to stay out of the lottery this year if our existing roster stands without significant improvements. To have blown our abundant riches that fast, no wonder Mavs diehards and bandwagoners alike are ranging from homicidal to suicidal in their reactions to the past week.

We came to Vegas this summer with a fat wallet, a bottom spending limit we set for ourselves and a poker strategy that has won in the past. We placed some big bets and we lost them all. We could have hit big, but Brooklyn went all in on a good hand in a game was stacked in their favor anyway. L.A. called our bluff on another big hand. Now we've reached our spending limit and the wallet's mostly empty. We can cut our losses, lick our wounds, buy a nice consolation dinner and go home and rebuild our bank account for next year's Vegas vacation. Or we can whip out the credit cards and start playing the slot machines. A lot of kneejerk reactions have demanded the latter out of desperation. And a few are even calling for taking out a second mortgage on the house. I may be alone on this, but I sure hope Cuban doesn't listen to them, because slot machines are not a suddenly good investment just because the cards didn't fall your way.

Many are acting as though Dirk's career is basically over, and he'll just rot away alone with his one ring if we keep being stingy in what may be one of his last great years. This is frankly silly. I'd bet losing Terry and Kidd will hurt his enjoyment of being king of the Mavericks, and admittedly Cuban and Nelson haven't yet given him anything to remotely salve the wounds (Nash, Williams, etc.) But Dirk is a professional, and he always rises to the occasion. We still have several options, even this year.

I think there is a much bigger question that critics of Cuban and Nelson's strategy need to answer before lambasting the front office for not paying tens of millions of dollars for decent backups with some potential like Goran Dragic and Omer Asik:

Is avoiding one bad year by overpaying for bad, long-term contracts to keep us in marginal contention worth sacrificing any real chance at Dirk winning another ring with the Mavs?

Because, sorry, Dragic, Asik, and an aging Dirk and Marion aren't catching up with Durant-Westbrook-Harden-Ibaka, Lebron-Wade-Bosh, Kobe-Pau-Bynum-Nash anytime soon. That lineup probably couldn't compete with the Celtics, Nets, Knicks or Spurs either. That lineup would be lucky to beat the Grizzlies and the Clippers. And it would be set long term, as those contracts will probably not be very tradeable.

I think we have only three decent possibilities for this season. Most importantly, these choices don't sacrifice long-term flexibility for long term mediocrity. None are ideal, but none are the end of the world either.

1.) TANK IT
Dirk would probably have to be onboard with this decision so we don't end up as the post-Amare Phoenix Suns, pt. II - striving on the back of one star just to make the playoffs. We play the rookies and young guns, start Carter, keep Haywood, trade Marion for picks and young pieces. Maybe we can buy out Calathes from his Euro team. Keep Dirk very well rested. The fans can buckle their seatbelts and expect a season of pure terror. In the end, we get a decent lottery pick or two while preserving both Dirk and all our cap space to compete again next summer.

2.) TRADE FOR A MARGINAL STAR
Marion, Roddy and a pick for Tyreke Evans? Find a player with superstar potential who desperately needs a change of scenery or is being misused in his current system. Preferably on a team looking to improve defense and add veteran leadership, like Sacramento (whom I believe was worst in the league last year on D by most measurements). In Tyreke, we'd have a second cornerstone in place, making us more attractive. In the interim our defense will be atrocious. Maybe we'd be bad enough to still get a decent pick. I don't want to trade Marion, as he pretty much singlehandedly kept us an elite defensive team last year, but do we have a choice? And is Marion even a good long-term investment anyway?

3.) PAY OUT THE BUTT FOR VERY SHORT-TERM DEALS
Kind of what we did last year. Pay stupid money to role players like Chris Kaman, Ramon Sessions, Marcus Camby, O.J. Mayo, or Jose Calderon for a one year contract. Amnesty Haywood to do so. You simply have to pay stupid money for a shorter term for these guys. This lineup would be good enough to make the playoffs next year. It would probably be even better than last year's lineup considering Terry and Kidd's falloff and the slacking of Haywood and Odom. Most importantly we wouldn't put our flexibility for next year at risk. We wouldn't be a real contender (but then we weren't considered such in 2011 either, right?), and there are long-term tax risks for going over the cap. But it would keep fans and season ticketholders satisfied in the interim.

Trading Dirk is not a real option. Anyone saying that really needs a chill pill. We also ideally want to avoid post-Amare Suns-esque mediocrity - too good for the lottery, too bad for the playoffs. So considering the few choices we have, whaddya wanna do?

Poll

Which of the following is the least bad option for the Mavericks at this point?

Tank it: play our rookies and elders, trade Marion for picks and pieces, rest Dirk a lot, go for a lotto pick

22 votes

Find a marginal star like Tyreke Evans for a package of Marion, Roddy and picks

23 votes

Try to stay in the lower playoff seed race while saving cap space by amnestying Haywood and paying for big, dumb one-year contracts for role players like Kaman, Camby, Mayo and Sessions

38 votes

83 votes | Poll has closed