The Beavers basketball team has announced their goal for the year is to make the NCAA tournament. This is a laudable goal, but it has been made more difficult by the overall poor performance of Pac-12 teams during the non-conference schedule. This poor performance means the Pac-12 will probably get only two or three bids to the dance. The outside stretch would be to get four bids.

The Beavers have done well in the out of conference season, but their strength of schedule is rated amongst the lowest in the country. While we expect that the Beavers will beat Chicago State tomorrow, a loss to Chicago State would probably end the hope for a bid to the tournament. The selection committee would view that as a very ugly loss. For argument's sake, let's assume that the Beavers win by 20 points in Chicago. This will give them a 10-2 non-conference record.

What conference record will be needed to make the tournament? Last year, third place Washington had a 11-7 conference record to go with a 20-10 overall record and made the tournament. Given the weakness of the non-conference schedule and the weakness of the conference, 11-7 is likely to be the minimum record to have a chance. Definitely bubble team at that level. My guess is that 12-6 or 13-5 will be required for the Beavers to make the tournament given that they have not been to the tournament in 20 years.

The Beavers first five conference games are against Washington, Washington State, Cal, Stanford and Arizona. These are a good part of the tough section of the schedule. The Beavers need to come out of these games at least 2-3, but preferably 3-2 to make the tournament. You have to be good to make the tournament and this section of the schedule will tell the tale. By the middle of January, we will have a good sense of this team.

(Photo by Andy Wooldridge)

Oregon St. Beavers schedule
Listening to sports talk radio in Seattle yesterday, they picked the Beavers to be in the top half of the conference this year. They noted the December 29 Beaver-Huskie game is looking like a big game on the conference schedule. Normally the Beavers are dismissed as cellar dwellers by the Seattle media. This represents a big change in the respect for the program.

Jared Cunningham was picked as the PAC 12 player of the year thus far in the season. They spoke at some length about Cunningham's improvement and his defense.

So far this basketball season, we have seen the Beavers go 4-4 and the rest of the Pac-10 has played pretty poorly as well in non-conference play. In order to make the NCAA tournament, the Beavers will need to win 20 regular season games.

The Beavers have 22 remaining regular season games. To get to 20 wins, the Beavers must go 16-6 in their remaining games. This does not seem likely to me. For starters, they will probably have to win all four of their remaining non-conference games. This is possible but not necessarily probable. For the sake of argument, let's suppose it happens. This still means the Beavers must go 12-6 in conference. The conference is weak, but this still seems to be a stretch.

Given their start, the Beavers will need to improve and become more consistent to make the tournament. One step at a time. Let's win the next game against Illinois-Chicago.

I was talking to my brother, a Cal fan, about the upcoming Civil War game. We were discussing the interesting fact that the winner of the Civil War game go to the Rose Bowl regardless of who wins. I said this is the first time in the history of the Civil War this has happened.

We speculated that it was pretty rare for rivalry games in general. In particular, we couldn't think of another rivalry game in the Pac-10 of similar magnitude. Certainly, there has not been a Big Game like this recently. Can anyone think of another Pac-10 rivalry game where the winner went to the Rose Bowl? Was there a USC-UCLA game way back when?

Can someone help me out?

If the Beavers win the Civil War, then the Beavers go to the Rose Bowl and the Ducks go to the Holiday Bowl.

If the Ducks win the Civil War, then the Ducks go to the Rose Bowl and the Beavers go to ???? Is there a scenario where the Beavers end up in the Holiday Bowl? Or if the Beavers lose the Civil War, they end up in the Las Vegas Bowl?

What are the determining factors? Should we be rooting for ASU to beat Arizona and UCLA to beat USC? Could the USC/Arizona game have an impact? Does the Holiday Bowl get to choose whomever they want after the Rose Bowl?

The Pac 10 is a tough conference this year, but the teams at the top of the standings have only themselves to blame for not having higher national rankings. Each year, the teams in the Pac 10 play relatively (compared to the SEC) tough non-conference schedules. This year while USC, Cal and UCLA did well in their non-conference play, the four teams at the top of the league standings all stubbed their toes in non-conference play.

The Ducks and Beavers lost to Boise State and Cincinnati. Arizona and Stanford lost to Iowa and Wake Forest. Imagine what the national rankings would look like right now, if the Pac 10 had won those four games. The Ducks would be ahead of Boise State. The Beavers, Stanford and Arizona would all be ranked more highly. Everyone's strength of schedule in the BCS system would be that much higher.

One of the keys to USC's long-time high rankings has been their consistent success in non-conference games. For other teams in the Pac 10 to be considered in the race for the national championship, they need to play and win games against significant non-conference opponents. Boise State, Cincinnati and Iowa have turned out to be significant non-conference opponents, but you have to win those games.

For the Pac 10 to win a second BCS bowl bid, collectively they need to win a higher percentage of the non-conference games. This year, if the Pac 10 had won those four games, we would be talking about the likelihood of two BCS bowl bids for the Pac 10. To become national champions it is very competitive, but for members of the Pac 10 other than USC they will have to pick up the slack in non-conference games to be considered.

The Beavers can mathematically eliminate USC from the Rose Bowl hunt with a victory on Saturday. All scenarios which would allow the Trojans to go to the Rose Bowl this year involve the Beavers losing to WSU on Saturday. Thus, a Beaver victory ends the USC streak in the Rose Bowl and/or any BCS bowl.

In a game where the Beavers are searching for a spark to get up for a game where the opponents are so weak that TV will not cover the game, eliminating USC is a great goal. The Beavers will have all Trojan-haters on their side for this effort.

Go Beavers! Eliminate the Trojans!