A Brief Ian Snell PITCHf/x Preview

lightbulb — Sun, 13 Jul 2008 00:25:41 -0000

Yo. Longtime reader and sarcastic & reactionary commenter, second time Fanposter.

In preparation for tomorrow's game against the Bucco's Ian Snell, I thought I'd take a look at Ian Snell's pitch f/x data (Thank You Josh Kalk!) from this year to see what Snell's been throwing.

Here's Ian Snell's 2008 Pitch f/x data. In 2008, pitch f/x classifies him as a two-pitch pitcher: Fastball and Slider.

Fastball: 69% Slider: 31%

In 2007, pitch f/x had a change-up registered, but he only threw it 8% of the time. It would appear he's either phased the Change out of his repertoire or there's not enough difference from his fastball for pitch f/x to register it. And if the latter is the case, it might explain his downright shit-tastic 2008 (Either that or the walks).

So far this year, Snell has thrown the fastball as his first pitch three-quarters of the time. If there happens to be anyone reading with access to the players (Westcoastbirdwatcher, I'm e-looking at you, man), please tell them there's a pretty good chance of a first-pitch fastball. At 1-2, he'll throw the slider 2/3rds of the time, and he'll throw it even more often (3/4ths) on 2-2.

This is a guy who's become eminently beatable this year, and the Cards have done pretty damn well against him with the bat so far this year, so here's hoping a sweep is in order (8-3 in the 6th after Yadi's 4th hit of the night as I write this...no jinx no jinx no jinx!). Let me know if I'm mssing anything with the pitch f/x data as I'm a bit of newcomer with it.

Looking forward to tomorrow's game!

Bill James Bullish on Braden Looper

lightbulb — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 22:41:57 -0000

I was clicking around on the Cards' fangraphs page to see Bill James' 2008 projections, and Braden Looper's caught my eye.

For reference, Looper in 2007 (IP / ERA / WHIP / K/BB ratio / K/9 ratio):
175/4.94/1.34/1.71/4.47

Bill James Projection fo Braden Looper 2008 (IP / ERA / WHIP / K/BB ratio / K/9 ratio): 183/3.98/1.36/1.75/5.07

For reference, here are the 2008 projections from ZIPS and CHONE (this is VEB after all...no way one data point would suffice!).

Stats - IP /ERA /WHIP/K_BB/K_9
James - 183/3.98/1.36/1.75/5.07
Chone - 136/4.30/1.40/1.64/4.76
Zips - 160/4.84/1.42/1.54/4.67

So Bill James is the optimist in the group, projecting Looper to be a full run better than last year. Zips is most pessimisitc, while Chone is right in the middle except on innings pitched.

So..why is Mr. James so optimistic? No doubt that Looper's sinker helped out his GB/FB ratio in 2007, and I suppose that must be playing into the 2008 calculation. But still, a full run lower ERA than 2007? And a healthy increase in the K/9 ratio (13%)? I find it hard to believe that James's projection would entertain intagibles such as "experience as a starter", but who knows.

The Chone and Zips projections seem a little more plausible to me, but hey, I'll happily take James's suggestions. Any thoughts as to why Bill James sees Braden Looper as having such a solid 2008?

SB Nation User Blog: lightbulb

A Brief Ian Snell PITCHf/x Preview

Bill James Bullish on Braden Looper