Bill James Bullish on Braden Looper

lightbulb — Wed, 26 Dec 2007 22:41:57 -0000

I was clicking around on the Cards' fangraphs page to see Bill James' 2008 projections, and Braden Looper's caught my eye.

For reference, Looper in 2007 (IP / ERA / WHIP / K/BB ratio / K/9 ratio):
175/4.94/1.34/1.71/4.47

Bill James Projection fo Braden Looper 2008 (IP / ERA / WHIP / K/BB ratio / K/9 ratio): 183/3.98/1.36/1.75/5.07

For reference, here are the 2008 projections from ZIPS and CHONE (this is VEB after all...no way one data point would suffice!).

Stats - IP /ERA /WHIP/K_BB/K_9
James - 183/3.98/1.36/1.75/5.07
Chone - 136/4.30/1.40/1.64/4.76
Zips - 160/4.84/1.42/1.54/4.67

So Bill James is the optimist in the group, projecting Looper to be a full run better than last year. Zips is most pessimisitc, while Chone is right in the middle except on innings pitched.

So..why is Mr. James so optimistic? No doubt that Looper's sinker helped out his GB/FB ratio in 2007, and I suppose that must be playing into the 2008 calculation. But still, a full run lower ERA than 2007? And a healthy increase in the K/9 ratio (13%)? I find it hard to believe that James's projection would entertain intagibles such as "experience as a starter", but who knows.

The Chone and Zips projections seem a little more plausible to me, but hey, I'll happily take James's suggestions. Any thoughts as to why Bill James sees Braden Looper as having such a solid 2008?

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Bill James Bullish on Braden Looper