It seems from the end-of-season regrade thread that Addison Reed will be on many top 100 radars and is the consensus top relief pitching prospect in the minors. I think you can make the argument that Kelvin Herrera is just as good, if not better.

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Been a while since I made one of these.

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Chad Ford speculates that #2 and Pekovic for Gortat and #13 is a possibility.  What would you think of #2 and Darko (more money off the books) for Gortat and #13?  Draft Biyombo at #13 if he's there?

Here's another entirely speculative deal: Beasley in a sign-and-trade for Arron Afflalo.

Both of these trades would force this roster to make a lot more sense (kind of like the Perkins trade for OKC):

PG: Rubio, Ridnour, Flynn

SG: Afflalo, Webster, Ellington

SF: Johnson, Hayward (#20?)

PF: Love, Randolph, Tolliver

C: Gortat, Biyombo, Pekovic

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12433

It's probably worth the subscription to read this article alone.  Wyers's basic premise is that sabermetrics is about the search for reproducible truth.  Defensive statistics (even ones that use the same source data) do not correlate to each other well.  According to Wyers, we have fundamentally abandoned the premise of sabermetrics in an attempt to create workable defensive stats.

The conclusion: "The AL Gold Glove voters made a mistake in giving Jeter the award. But I think we make a much bigger mistake if we castigate the Gold Glove voters for their beliefs without a serious effort to give them something in which they ought to believe."

This is really worth a read; it's perhaps the best attempt at self-criticism I've seen in baseball research in a long time.

Adapted from my preliminary prospects list at Battle Your Tail Off.  I didn't put anyone with MLB experience on the BYTO version, but I'm slotting Revere on this list for consistency with John's list.  Also, as you can see from the post date, this was made before I saw John's list.  The only change I made was adding Stuifbergen, who was an inadvertent omission from my initial list.

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Some notable pitching lines:

Brandon Beachey: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 R/ER, 8 K

John Ely: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 R/ER, 7 K, BB

DJ Mitchell: 5 IP, 7 H, 3 R/ER, 7 K, BB

Miguel de los Santos: 5.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R/ER, 5 K, 5 BB

Some dudes who hit homers: Jose Altuve, Bobby Borchering, Hank Conger, Danny Espinosa (first MLB bomb), Jonathan Galvez, Alex Liddi, Chris Marrero.

Questions:

1) just for cap space?

2) can he play the three?

3) will he get PT?

4) if so, will he score 20 PPG?

Pretty exciting on the whole though.  I'm hoping he takes the chance and runs with it.

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Three years, $13MM.  Just reported on ESPN's Daily Dime chat.  Not a bad deal at all.  It's pretty cool that he was willing to come over so fast; hopefully this bodes well for Bjelica and Rubio.

chadfordinsider: Breaking News: Wolves agree to 3 year, $13 mil deal with 2008 2nd round pick Nikola Pekovic. Link coming on ESPN.com...

Pekovic is Serbian 6-foot-11 physical center who has played in Greece last 2 years. Averaged 14.8 ppg in 23 mpg last season ...

Just to remind everyone, the deal was:

New Jersey sent Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson to the Nets, received Tony Battie's and Rafer Alston's contracts, and Courtney Lee from the Magic.

The important thing for the Magic was that they worked Hedo Turkoglu's deal into this one as a sign and trade.  The Magic received a large trade exception (around $6.8MM) in the deal.

This is the kind of framework that the big free agent and trade deals this offseason could take.  For example, one or two teams (like the Pistons and Wolves) might want to take on long-term salaried players, while a third team (like Philly or other teams in cap purgatory) might want to take back expiring deals for one of their long-term contracts.  One of the involved teams, or a fourth team, could work its way in to garner a trade exception for its outgoing free agent.

Al Jefferson to Detroit, Tayshaun Prince to Philly, and Andre Iguodala to Minnesota makes a bunch of sense (and may be more likely to happen mid-season if the pieces remain in place and Philly falls off).

Another consequence of the Vince Carter deal is Orlando's large trade exception.  The Magic are exploring options to bring in a power forward who can play with his back to the basket, and you have to believe Al Jefferson is somewhere on their list.  Orlando can mostly match salaries with its exception.  In a one-on-one deal, they could include Brandon Bass, Marcin Gortat, or J.J. Redick in a sign-and-trade.  A team looking to shed salary would be an ideal third wheel in this trade, since the Wolves can absorb salary under the cap.

For example, the Magic could swap their exception, plus Brandon Bass, for basically any player in the $4MM to $11MM annual range on a cap-strapped team that the Wolves want.  Most of these teams would kill for the instant $7MM of savings.  Then the Wolves could deal Jefferson plus Webster or Brewer (both of whom make sense for a Magic team that will probably lose Matt Barnes) for Gortat plus the acquired player.  I think the salaries on this would even work for Iguodala + Gortat, though there might have to be a filler player involved.

I see a lot of posts about how age relative to league is not important for pitchers.  I disagree.

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The Wolves have the fourth pick.  There is almost no chance for the Wolves to get Turner unless the Sixers and Nets both decide that a different one of Cousins and Favors is super awesome and are willing to move down or do a post-draft deal (or just take those two second and third, which seems really unlikely).

The interesting thing about the Sixers landing the second pick is that while it's bad for the Wolves getting Turner, it's actually pretty good for the Wolves getting Andre Iguodala.  The Sixers are looking to slash salary, and Turner would make Iguodala expendable.

The Wolves will likely be able to take back all of Iguodala's salary while staying under the cap (they might be able to get Philly to take back Ryan Hollins if the difference is a couple million, and they also have cap exceptions amounting to nearly two million), so they could get him in a straight salary dump.  It would be a good move for both teams.  Iguodala is a fairly young and extremely athletic wing who actually deserves his contract, and more importantly for the Wolves, he's one of the best wing defenders in the league.  He's also the only long-term deal that the Sixers can reasonably expect to deal, since Brand has become an albatross.

I also expect the Wolves to try to consolidate their sixteenth and 23rd picks into a higher pick.  One way that they might be able to get a pretty high pick is to deal the two first rounders along with Ryan Gomes's deal (which can be used to slash three and a quarter million for this coming year if he is cut before June 30th) and their cap exceptions for a traditional expiring deal to a team with salary issues picking in the 9-12 range.  Gomes['s contract], the 16th and 23rd picks, and cap exceptions to the Pacers for the 10th pick and Jeff Foster['s expiring contract] is a workable idea.

In the draft, I think you have to take Cousins if he's there (he's the best player likely to be available, and would make Jefferson expendable) and I'd like to see them grab Hassan Whiteside with their second pick.  He's a finisher, a strong help defender, and an above-the-rim athlete, which is what the Wolves need in the frontcourt.  Moving up to tenth would give the Wolves a good shot at snagging Whiteside.

Finally, I think that regardless of who they take with the fourth pick (I don't see them being able to move up or willing to move down, so I'm assuming they'll pick fourth), they will try to trade Al Jefferson for another wing player.  The pipe dream is to somehow fold a Jefferson-for-Granger deal into the above Pacers proposal, but that seems unlikely.  If LeBron to Chicago is a reality, Jefferson for Luol Deng has a really good chance of happening.  Monta Ellis is another possibility.  There are other wing players with smaller contracts who might be available, but those two are locked up for nearly the same years and money as Jefferson and could be on the trade block.  Toronto also has a couple of players with similar deals in Turkoglu and Bargnani, but you'd have to think the Wolves wouldn't be interested.

The Wolves could realistically come away from the draft with Iguodala, Deng, Cousins, and Whiteside, which would be a really nice offseason.  I don't think there is a true superstar in that group, but Rubio could be the kind of point guard who brings it all together.

I'm hoping to learn a little more about this guy.  His numbers are interesting...he's got a huge K/9 and a pretty small BB/9.  He's also not overly old for his level as a college starter in the Sally league.  The low HRs stand out as a potential lucky break, but he does induce grounders pretty well.  He also had a high BABIP that wasn't supported by his lowish LD%, so maybe his luck evened out a bit.

What I've read suggests that he has great command of a 86-91 MPH fastball.  I read somewhere that he had the best lefty command in the 2008 draft.  BA rates his curveball as the best in the Giants' organization, but I don't know if that says more about the pitch or the other curveballs in San Fran's system.  His changeup is apparently a decent pitch as well.

What's the word on this guy?  Does he have any projection left on his velocity, can he succeed in the high minors, and can he become more than a pitchability lefty?

The Warriors obviously have a massive stockpile of very talented players who primarily play the tweener-guard and wing positions, and it's no secret that they've been looking for an offensive presence at the four to play off of this strength.

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Oleksiy Pecherov and Wolves' second-round 2010 pick to the Warriors for Marco Belinelli.

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Hey everyone,

I am the GM of the Padres in the Fair Off the Foul Pole DMB sim league.  We are 1.5 years old, have 22 dedicated GMs and a very active commissioner, and eight current openings, including a team that went to the World Series in the league last year.  These open teams are mostly the result of recent departures due to other commitments; the rosters are well-constructed and worth managing.  We are seeking eight dedicated and smart GMs to pick up where the last GMs left off.

More importantly, everyone in the league is very active and responds to trade offers.  The league is also very friendly to GMs who like to control their rosters.  We have a 25-man roster and 25 other keeper slots.  Trading of draft picks is allowed, and we have a salary cap structure (using real MLB salaries) to ensure that rosters do not stagnate.  I've never seen this as an issue; nearly every GM is at least willing to seriously discuss trades, and several fair deals for megastars have gone down.

Please contact me at danclovic@gmail.com if you would like more information about the league.

The teams that are open are the: Rangers, Yankees, Orioles, Giants, Diamondbacks, Astros, Pirates, and Phillies.  The rosters were based on a fantasy draft, so please contact me if you'd like to know what they are.  We are open to allowing people to select a roster first, then decide what team they want that roster to correspond to (i.e., you can pick the Giants' roster and decide that you'd rather your team be the Yankees).

Thanks, and again, please email me at danclovic@gmail.com if you're interested.

I was perusing some minor league stats when I noticed that Shane Lindsay is back from labrum surgery.  He had a bit of a rough go of A-ball, but upon his first career promotion to A+, he racked up 56 K in 47 IP and a 3.99 ERA.  That's not too bad for a first try in the Cal League.

Is his velocity creeping back to where it used to be?  Is he expected to move fast now that he's back?

This guy seems to be flying way under the radar.  Stats this year.  Does anyone have info on what he throws?  Either way, he's coming off of TJ surgery and has made the AA transition with little effect on his K/9, BB/9 or H/9.  He's 24, so he's a bit old, but I think his stats compare favorably to Erik Bedard's, who also was coming back from TJ around age 24.

If he really has the talent to K/9 13 and BB/9 2.5 in AA, he's a great prospect who deserves more hype.

Euclides Viloria was a pretty interesting prospect about a year ago; a 17-year-old who struck out over 1.5 per inning in the AZL.  He was a pretty well-regarded international signing with the Padres, and reports are that he's got an impressive changeup and good velocity. 

But he hasn't pitched at all this year, and I can't find any updated info on him on Google News or anywhere else.  Does anyone know what's up with Euclides?

Anyone know anything about this guy's stuff?  I've heard he has a nice breaking ball and one of the really good fastballs in the minors.  His K rate seems to support the idea that he has good stuff, and his BB rate isn't too bad, but the ERA is pretty nasty at this point.

I've never seen him pitch, so it would be interesting to hear what he throws and how he throws it from someone in the know.  And maybe some insight as to his ceiling or why he's struggling so much right now.

Straight out of college, the Braves promoted him to the Sally League and he put up more walks than strikeouts with a .925 OPS.  This year he's hitting for power at Myrtle Beach, one of the nastiest parks to hit in in the minors.  The strikeouts seem to be a concern now, and they weren't before, but he's still walking a lot and crushing the ball when he does hit it.

Where do others see Hicks ending up defensively?  He's a moderately sized guy for a shortstop, and I haven't heard much about his defense.

Not a bad third-round pick, that's for sure.

I know that one's a 22 year old college pitcher who went straight to AA the the other is a little-known A-ball pitcher from high school, but I was really struck by the similarities in numbers and scouting reports of Mulvey and Burnett.

Both are GB-inducing righties with mid 90s fastballs and decent-not-great K rates.  Both have great control and feature a curve and a change in addition to the FB.  Both are shorter righties as well.

Anyway, just wondering if anyone else sees this comparison.

48 flyballs (17 infield flies)
33 ground balls
33 strikeouts
14 line drives
11 walks
0 hit by pitch

Upton is showing the classic signs of a good hitter struggling on his first exposure to big league pitching.  His strikeout rate is pretty bad, but what's really hurting his average are 17 infield flies.  That's not typical of his minor league record, and probably indicates that he's getting fooled by major league stuff.

That being said, I love the 15 more flyballs than groundballs and I like the not-sickly LD% and BB%.  There's plenty of room for improvement in these numbers, and nothing sticks out as particularly alarming.

Strikeouts: 17
Groundballs: 14
Flyballs: 10
Walks: 3
Hit by pitch: 1
Line drives: 1

His minor league numbers indicated that this would happen, and it did.  Now let's hope he can make the adjustment, because any question about whether he could hit a grounder or strike out 2/3 of the time at the Major League level has been answered.

In a John Buck thread nearly four months ago, Uncle Charlie said

"Does anyone know how to tag posts like this for future reference?  I don't have a position one way or another on Buck, but there have been a few of these sorts of predictions (some of Dr.B.'s glowing comments on Russ Ortiz and Zito spring to mind, as does Shamus's comment on--I think--Hirsh).

I think it would be fun to collect these somewhere."

So here's a thread for pulling up old predictions and gloating or shaming.

The power and stolen bases haven't been there since August, but who cares?  He's hitting .403 with only 9 strikeouts in 62 at bats.  Quite a few doubles as well.  It's pretty obvious that Kendrick is a special hitter.  So far, he's batted at least .327 in months of 40+ at bats this year.

Brandon Morrow.

Since July 1: 1.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

Only 10 BB in 22.1 innings pitched, a cool 4.03 BB/9 after a harsh 9.8 BB/9 his first three months.

He's maintained a disgusting strikeout rate as well, 10.48 K/9.
                                                                                 

This is absolutely infuriating.

While the useless likes of Chris Heintz, Carmen Cali, and Jason Miller waste spots on the Twins' 40-man roster, Terry Ryan let another legitimate prospect walk to another organization for free yesterday.

During the offseason, it was Alex Romero, a versatile outfielder who struggled in AAA at 22, was demoted to AA, and did very well for 50 games.  The Twins didn't much care for his future, and who can blame them with such treasure to protect as the immortal Chris Heintz?  All Romero's done in Tucson is bat .330 and OPS .820 with a boatload of doubles, earning him an AAA all-star appearance.

Now it's Alex Smit, a projectable Dutchman they signed at 16 for $800,000.  He's a lefty with sparkling career numbers and projection that makes scouts drool.  And he's been claimed off waivers by Cincinnati after being outrighted from the Twins' 40-man.

These are two prospects that John has rated a B-.  They're not organization filler...these are guys who have real value that can be measured in integer multiples of Chris Heintz.  Romero has position versatility and enough speed and power to be a championship level fourth outfielder, and the sky is the limit for Smit, whose control seemed to break out in a big way last year.

But thank god.  We've still got a 32-year-old no-stick no-defense catcher and two relievers who can't strike an AAA batter every other inning.

NOTE: Because I am stupid, I forgot to put Clay Buchholz on here. I like him about equally as Luke Hochevar, so call him #18b.

My post-2006 list for reference

Honorable Mention: Jeff Clement, Carlos Truinfel, Kurt Suzuki, Mike Carp, John Whittleman, Chris Lubanski

Top 50 guys still eligible but not on the list: Scott Elbert (injury)

Biggest risers: Ryan Braun (I missed this one badly), Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Felix Pie, Eric Hurley, Travis Snider

Biggest fallers: Andy LaRoche (still like him), Carlos Gonzalez (shouldn't have had him so high), Jeff Niemann, Kevin Slowey, Joel Guzman, Chris Parmelee

Picks from 2006 I'm really happy with: Justin Upton, Colby Rasmus

Picks from 2006 I hate: Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun

I was hoping to get some thoughts about him from anyone who cares to defend this pick.  It simply doesn't make sense to me at all.

To whoever said that the Twins have a track record of developing outfielders, you must be insane.  Of the top ten round picks from 1999-2005, none drafted as outfielders have made the majors.

Their only two first-round outfielders in that time were other speedy, toolsy guys (and abject failures) named BJ Garbe and Denard Span.

Maybe I'm wrong and Revere is Kirby Puckett 2.0, but I have absolutely no confidence in this organization's ability to adjust its draft plan to take the best player on the board when impact guys like Mangini, Doolittle, Frazier, and Middlebrooks slide while they make the biggest reach of the first round.

PS--Are we not allowing individual pick threads, or is there a policy that allows swearing in posts but not in titles?  I guess I can understand that.  Not trying to rock the boat or anything.

What's up with Olsen?  He's allowing well over a hit per inning, his K rate is way down, his walk rate is up, his ERA hasn't been below 4.80 all year and currently sits at 5.27.  He couldn't even hang around 5 innings to steal a win for me in fantasy today.  I thought he was Kazmir 2.0 when I drafted him this year, but unlike my other young value SPs (Bonser, James, Shields, Maine) he's been a huge disappointment.

What's wrong with Olsen, and is it time to cut bait in a 10-team league?