SB Nation User Blog: lone1c

Is Lowrie the starter at 3B right now?

lone1c — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 14:52:44 -0000

With all of the roster moves going on, I was trying to figure out who is at 3B. Right now, as scary as it sounds, it looks like that that particular job would currently belong to Jed Lowrie.

If we assume that:

the Mike Lowell trade goes through;
the Red Sox don't let ~~Carcass~~ Jason Varitek catch more than once every five days;
Victor Martinez is the starting catcher; and
Casey Kotchman is hanging around for the days when Martinez or Youk is unavailable,

it leads to, barring another deal, a starting lineup for the Sox that would resemble the following:

Mr. On-Base, RF
The Elf, 2B
Clutch Mart, C
Youkbacca, 1B
Papi, DH
Mike Cameron, CF
Jedi Knight, 3B
Polo! (Marco Scutaro), SS
Taco (aka Mr. Larceny), LF

Given the players the Sox have right now, that's probably about as good a job as they can do in terms of putting together a lineup out of that. You might juggle around 6-8, but I would argue that any solution that involves Casey Kotchman or Jason Varitek having a large number of at-bats really isn't a viable solution at all.

Poll

What does the lineup make you think?

Why is Tito leaving the bullpen in too long?

lone1c — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 20:35:04 -0000

Now that the bullpen has blown a third game this week, it bears asking: why is Terry Francona leaving in pitchers from the bullpen when they are clearly struggling?

In Tuesday's infamous game, Justin Masterson was left in after already having given up two runs, with more lefties due up in the order, and after having already pitched 2+ innings. There was no logical reason not to turn to another member of the bullpen at that point to finish off the inning. Beyond that, Manny Delcarmen gets pulled after one hit.

In last night's game, Ramon Ramirez was clearly struggling with his command, but was still left in the game and proceeded to give up a two run lead. (Had he thrown to third instead of first on the grounder to him, the game may have had a different outcome.)

Then, in today's game, Takashi Saito walks the bases loaded, and is still left in the game, even though Papelbon and Bard are both available.

I'm normally a big supporter of what Francona's done for the team, but this last week has just been completely mystifying. Handing away three games in this division is never a good idea. Can somebody help me understand what's going on here?

Decisions, decisions: Smoltz and Lowrie looming

lone1c — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 02:13:20 -0000

With the imminent return of John Smoltz and the start of a minor-league rehab assignment for Jed Lowrie set to begin in Pawtucket on Sunday, Decision Day for the Sox is rapidly approaching with respect to both the pitching staff and the middle infield. A lot of ink---real and virtual---has already been spilled on the starting pitching issue, so I'd like to put the spotlight here on the shortstop/utility infielder dilemma that will arise.

Of course, the pitching situation has gotten the lion's share of the ink, especially because Smoltz is a much higher-profile "call-up" than Lowrie is. However, I suspect that Dice-K's most recent disastrous start may make the situation a little clearer. Right now, would anyone want to bet against a second all-expenses-paid trip to the beautiful, luxurious 15-day Disabled List for Matsuzaka? That leaves a five-man rotation of Jon Lester, Smoltz, Josh Beckett, Tim Wakefield, and Brad Penny, with Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden waiting in the wings in case of emergency or injury.

The scenario that has drawn less attention in recent days, I think, is the middle infield. While it's clear that Nick Green has usurped Julio Lugo as the de facto starter at SS, there is the question of what to do when Lowrie has recovered from his Pawtucket rehab stint. Granted, because of the rules in place governing rehab stints, Lowrie's return could coincide with the end of the All-Star Break, which would give the Sox a month to make up their minds about what path to take, it might be worth considering now.

Ultimately, the decision comes down to what to do with the Nine Million Dollar Man. Based on the relative playing times for Lugo and Green in the past month, the Sox clearly feel much more confident with Green on the field. However, to make room for Lowrie, they need to let go of either Lugo or Green. I don't see the Sox being able to trade Lugo for anything more than a minor-league prospect, and that's even with them eating most of the $15 million remaining on his contract. At the same time, I believe the Sox would be much more confident with a platoon of Lowrie and Green than they would be with a Lowrie-Lugo platoon. In addition, the Sox have shown the willingness lately to bench Lugo for extended periods of time, so the notion that Lugo's contract will force the Sox to keep him in the lineup no longer carries the same weight it did in the offseason.

I suspect the success of Lowrie's rehab stint will be a significant factor in determining the Sox's urgency. Right now, I think the most likely scenario will be that Green goes down to Pawtucket for a few weeks when Lowrie comes up. If Lowrie performs up to the Sox's expectations, then I think that the Sox will have more motivation to find a reason to get Lugo off the roster and bring Green back up as the utility infielder. If Lowrie struggles, then he can be exchanged for Green in the lineup, as Lowrie has minor league options remaining.

Poll

Who will be the starting SS and utility infielder for the Sox after the All-Star Break?

Lowrie SS, Lugo IF

31 votes

Lowrie SS, Green IF

269 votes

Green SS, Lugo IF

13 votes

Green SS, Lowrie IF

105 votes

Lowrie/Green SS/IF platoon

143 votes

Lugo SS, Lowrie or Green IF

14 votes

575 votes | Poll has closed

Unsubstantiated trade rumor: Saito for Blalock?

lone1c — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 19:24:07 -0000

According to reports on Extra Bases, there have been several teams interested in obtaining the services of Takashi Saito. One rumor even mentions the possibility of a Saito for Hank Blalock swap. While Blalock has been doing OK, he hasn't exactly lit the world on fire (this season (sub-.300 OBP, but an .823 OPS). So it looks like we'd be trading a second closer for a not-quite-ready-for-the-regular-lineup 1B/DH. I have a feeling that, as interconnected as all the issues on the team are this year, that this will depend a lot on what happens to both Dice-K and Ortiz before it's resolved one way or another. But this definitely adds an intriguing new set of possibilities to the recent articles suggesting what will happen once Smoltz is activated. If Papi's bat needs to be replaced, this might be a decent way to do that. However, if the priority is shoring up the defense, the Sox will probably pass.

Poll

Takashi Saito for Hank Blalock?

Hell yes!

11 votes

Meh--but it's not bad.

9 votes

Not if there are better options.

25 votes

Only if the Rangers also take Lugo off the Sox's hands as part of the deal.

43 votes

Run. Run far away.

27 votes

115 votes | Poll has closed

Improving the Sox defense from within

lone1c — Sat, 30 May 2009 05:48:26 -0000

Looking at recent games, it's clear that the struggling defense will play a significant role in determining the Sox's playoff chances. A number of the losses so far have come from giving up runs because of poor defense. While some parts of it the Sox will just have to live with in order to keep bats in the lineup and arms in the rotation, the infield woes can be addressed.

We know that Mark Kotsay and Jed Lowrie are both close to returning to the team. While Kotsay will probably displace Bailey, it's not clear what will happen when Lowrie is ready to return. Much as I'd like to hear Tito and Theo announce Lugo's immediate departure, more realistically, Green will be shipped back to Pawtucket when the time comes.

However, I'd like to offer another scenario Given David Ortiz's total lack of production this season, Mark Kotsay actually produced better numbers offensively last season for the Sox than Ortiz has this year. This suggests it might be possible to replace Ortiz's bat with Kotsay's and not lose any ground offensively. Of course, this requires the diagnosis of "fatigue" or something similar to send Ortiz to the DL again.

If that's the case, then Lowell could be moved to DH, with Kotsay at 1B and Youk to 3B. I think the combination of Kotsay--Pedroia--Lowrie--Youkilis represents the best possible infield defense that the Sox can assemble from internal talent.

The lineup would then be:

Ellsbury (CF)-Pedroia (2B)-Drew (RF)-Youk (3B)-Bay (LF)-{some permutation of Lowell (DH), Catcher, Kotsay (1B), and Lowrie (SS)}

In addition, if Lowell moves to the DH spot, that would leave an additional spot on the bench, which could be filled by Green, Carter, Bailey, van Every, or someone else. You'd gain an extra utility guy to back-up the rest of the roster.

Initially, this would give the Sox a chance to see if a new bat will be necessary, while providing a much-needed boost to the defense. If the defense hasn't improved significantly by early July, there would still be time to engineer a trade. No net offense would be sacrificed as a result of these moves.

Again, the lynchpin of this plan is the ability to move Ortiz off the roster, at least temporarily to the DL. If he is still clogging up a roster (or DH spot), all of this becomes much more difficult to pull off, as the Sox lose a lot of their versatility in the roster. However, given Theo's reluctance to part with any of the prospects he's stashed away in the Sox's "rookie jar," and the likely costs required to bring anyone on board, this seems like the route most likely to improve the team from within.

Sox consider moving Ortiz down in the lineup, but where?

lone1c — Sun, 24 May 2009 23:23:34 -0000

According to Extra Bases, Tito and Dave Magadan are considering moving Ortiz down in the lineup. The question now becomes: and then what?

The most likely scenario that I can see is the top 5 in the lineup becomes:

Ellsbury--MVP--Drew--Youk--Bay

But it remains what to do with Ortiz. Here are the issues I see:

For obvious reasons, Ortiz can't be put behind Bay.
Ortiz behind Lowell would create such an overwhelming possibility of double plays that Bay, if left at fifth, would probably get IBB'd every time he came to the plate with first base open.
Ortiz in front of Ellsbury creates too much of a left-handers' glut in the lineup (at 9, 1, and 3).

Given all of these, I suspect that the best spot to move Ortiz to the 8 spot in the lineup rather than the 7 spot, so we have

Ellsbury--MVP--Drew--Youk--Bay--Lowell--Slowly Reanimating Corpse--Ghost--Shortstop

Other theories as to how this might play out are also welcome.

Poll

Where should Ortiz be moved in the lineup?

Sixth

9 votes

Seventh

17 votes

Eighth

32 votes

Ninth

6 votes

Other (includes leaving him in the third spot)

8 votes

72 votes | Poll has closed

Papi benched versus Mariners

lone1c — Sat, 16 May 2009 00:12:57 -0000

Papi benched versus Mariners

Tito's given Papi the day off. We'll see if it's just that or the start of something longer.

OTM fans rejoice: Drew to bat lead-off!

lone1c — Wed, 06 May 2009 20:00:08 -0000

Well, don't get too excited.

It's only for today, with Ellsbury out of the lineup with a tight hamstring.

However, for some people, the thought of Drew atop the lineup seems like the restoration of natural order. Unfortunately, the Youk-light lineup still looks a little strange, even with the 1-2 punch of Drew and Pedroia at the top:

1 J.D. Drew, RF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. David Ortiz, DH
4. Jason Bay, LF
5. Mike Lowell, 3B
6. Jason Varitek, C
7. Jeff Bailey, 1B
8. Jonathan Van Every, CF
9. Nick Green, SS
-- Justin Masterson, SP

(lineup courtesy of Extra Bases)

Some of the Sox may enjoy this lineup---particularly Varitek, who is unlikely to be batting many more days from the 6 spot in the lineup.

What we can trade Julio Lugo for RIGHT NOW

lone1c — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 02:21:11 -0000

Seeing how Lugo has returned to glorious midseason form in just three innings tonight, I'd like to offer Theo Epstein and the rest of the front office some advice on what Lugo's current value in a trade would be worth:

One bat, after being used in a broken-bat pop-up.
A scuffed-up baseball that your dog chewed the other day.
That half-finished carton of milk that's been sitting in your fridge for the last two months.
The cash value on one coupon from Sunday's paper.
Britney Spears's vows of lifelong fidelity.
A case of food poisoning.
Bad fanfic.
A hangnail.
That Brian Austin Green collectible plate your cousin Maureen has been holding on to for all these years.
The trade-in value of Carl Edwards's car after the Talladega race this past weekend.

Feel free to add your own suggestions for what we could trade Lugo for below.

Update: Now that E6's three-run error has snapped our eleven-game win streak, I offer another eleven things which I would trade straight up for dear ol' Julio right now:

A free case of syphilis.
Suddenly Susan, The Complete Second Season on DVD
The styrofoam inserts in a computer box.
A discarded hair from ~~Youk's~~ Ellsbury's beard.
A shot of benzene-laced Everclear.
A shot of actual dirty water from the Charles.
The lint from my dryer.
A ball of used tinfoil.
The last piece of chewing gum Tito spat out tonight.
A used toilet bowl brush.
One at-bat from Nick Green or Jed Lowrie.

Carter sent down to Pawtucket

lone1c — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 13:05:48 -0000

Apparently we can't have Bailey and Carter on the team at the same time.

Full Count at WEEI.com is reporting that Carter is being sent back down to Pawtucket before the Yankees series. It's not clear if anybody who is coming up to fill in the extra spot. However, given that it is a utility outfielder spot, the most likely candidate is Jonathan Van Every.

The obvious question is whether this is because of the Baldelli injury. Carter isn't realistically a center fielder, and with Baldelli out, Drew is currently the back-up CF. Not the most thrilling of ideas, so that's probably what's behind the move. It will be interesting to see if Carter gets recalled after Baldelli returns to the club.