SB Nation User Blog: lonestar

Rays OF Prospects

lonestar — Fri, 23 Nov 2007 17:56:22 -0000

We spend most of our time talking about the uber prospects and the Rays system is loaded with them. I am curious about some lesser prospects in their system: Justin Ruggiano, Jason Pridie, and Fernando Perez.

What are their grades and scouting reports?

Where do they fit into the Rays plans?

What would be a fair trade for each? Being a Twins fan, I would appreciate if you use the Twins for context.

Wladimir Balentien

lonestar — Tue, 08 May 2007 20:02:12 -0000

Balentien was a C-rated prospect. It appears his plate discipline (newly found last year in the Texas League) is holding up at AAA Tacoma.

At age 22 (and in a very small sample size)his slash stats are .353/.424/.621/1.045.

His peripherals:

K/AB = 21/116 = .181
BB/AB = 13/AB = .112
BB/K = .619

What do you think?

What Do SP Numbers Mean?

lonestar — Mon, 04 Dec 2006 23:09:08 -0000

Is there a standardized definition and criteria of what a #1-5 starting pitcher is, especially #2, #3, and #4.

To illustrate the issue:
What makes both Johan Santana and Roy Halladay #1's?
Was Brad Radke a #2, #3, or #4?
What number is Gil Meche?
Jake Westbrook was 10th in AL in xFIP -- arguably the 10th best pitcher in the league. Is he a #2 or #3?
The AL average ERA for starters was 4.71. If a pitcher in a relatively neutral ballpark puts up an ERA of 4.71, what number is he? How do you determine?

What is Matt Kemp's Future?

lonestar — Tue, 21 Nov 2006 17:20:48 -0000

At the risk of being redundant, what is Matt Kemp's future? What is his trade value?
At the risk of being redundant, what is Matt Kemp's future? What is his trade value?
At the risk of being redundant, what is Matt Kemp's future? What is his trade value?
At the risk of being redundant, what is Matt Kemp's future? What is his trade value?

Shopping Juan Rincon

lonestar — Mon, 11 Jul 2005 22:50:19 -0000

Flipping the Set-Up Man

Last year Juan Rincon was one of the premier set-up men in baseball. He has been comparable this year, except for a 10-day suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs.

Year K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 WHIP ERA
2005 10.38 3.69 2.81 0.23 1.18 2.54
2004 11.63 3.51 3.31 0.55 1.02 2.63

If the Twins were to shop Juan Rincon, what could they get that would meet current and future needs? Include major league ready prospects, of course.

How much has Rincon's value been affected by the PED suspension?

Flipping The Closer -- Nathan

lonestar — Mon, 11 Jul 2005 22:08:29 -0000

Is there a likely match that would make it worthwhile for the Twins to flip their closer?

This was brought up in the Twins GM thread but not adequately addressed. Joe Nathan is an All-Star for the second year. He makes $2.0 million this year, $3.75 in 2006, and $5.0 in 2007. The Twins have a $6.0 million option in 2008.

Most of the damage to his peripheral numbers has been done in non-save situations. The problem is: The Twins need more offense so they can have more save situations in the next 3.5 years.

With Guardado, Baez, and possibly Wagner on the market, is there a likely match before the trade deadline or in the off-season that would make it worthwhile for the Twins to flip their closer? Or: What can the Twins get for an inexpensive All-Star closer?

Wilson Betemit

lonestar — Fri, 01 Jul 2005 18:02:43 -0000

How good is he?

In 2002, Betemit was BA's #5 prospect overall. This year he got a C+ from John Sickels. Currently he is tearing the cover off the ball in Atlanta.

What can we expect in terms of offense?
How good is his defense at SS and 3B?
Where does he fit into the Braves plans?
What would be a reasonable trade?

Jesse Crain: What Happened to My Fastball?

lonestar — Fri, 01 Jul 2005 17:49:33 -0000

Should the Twins be concerned?

Jesse Crain is one of the most effective relievers in baseball. Yet his K/9 has gone from 11.37 in AAA to 3.5 with Minnesota. His GB/FB ratio is .90. Does he have any comparables? Should the Twins be concerned?

1.    pitched more innings than anybody else out of the bullpen
2.    seen 70% of those innings come in a High Leverage Situation (one-run ahead, tie game, one-run behind or tying run at the plate)
3.    failed just THREE!!! times in those innings to prevent the other team from scoring (even if the runner was on base when he entered)
4.    struck out just 14 men (or 3.5 batters / 9 innings)
5.    held right-handed batters to a .208(!!!) slugging percentage
6.    allowed left-handed batters to slug a slightly less ridiculous (but still amazing) .229
http://www.wyoung.net/twins/

The following is copied from the Minneapolis Star Tribune without permission.
Twins' Jesse Crain: No fastball? No problem
La Velle E. Neal III, Star Tribune
June 14, 2005 TWIN0614

Scouts have walked into press boxes with questions. Reporters have looked at stadium radar gun readings and wondered.
Most importantly, Twins righthander Jesse Crain has thrown a pitch and asked himself: What happened to my fastball?
More than two months later, and after compiling enough shutout innings to make a starting pitcher envious, Crain has answered the question.
Who cares?
Instead of struggling after a change in his delivery decreased his velocity, Crain has embraced movement over power. With a 5-0 record in his second major league season, he has more victories than Twins starter Joe Mays. With a 0.69 ERA, he was the only reliever in baseball who, through Sunday, had pitched at least 14 2/3 innings and had an ERA under 1.00.
"Crainer has been throwing the ball really well for us," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said.
In 28 games, Crain has given up 13 hits and eight walks. The only reason he has an ERA is because he gave up two earned runs against Milwaukee on May 21. That's it. Opponents are batting .148 with a .159 slugging percentage and .227 on-base percentage.
Crain has stepped up in a season in which the Twins lost Grant Balfour for the year because of Tommy John elbow surgery and top setup man Juan Rincon for a 10-game suspension for violating the league's drug policy.
"We knew coming in what kind of pitcher he is and what kind of pitcher he can be," closer Joe Nathan said. "We knew having him here and getting him confident late in the game is going to be huge."
Not throwing fastballs at 94 or 95 miles per hour no longer is a big deal to Crain, who has developed a sinking fastball to go with his slider and curveball. The sinker comes in about 90 mph and breaks in on righthanded hitters. Once worried about not being able to blow a fastball past hitters, Crain now welcomes contact.
"It's been great," Crain said. "I couldn't throw one in the minor leagues. I couldn't get one of those balls to move to save my life. Coming up here, I've just been working on it, and I get it to move a lot."
But the straight fastball used to be a big deal to Crain, 23, who was drafted in the second round in 2002 and rose quickly through the Twins system. He dominated throughout the Twins' minor leagues. He didn't give up a home run as a pro until last season at Class AAA Rochester.
Crain made his major league debut with the Twins last Aug. 5 and learned early that good hitters could tag his fastball.
The goal was to sharpen his mechanics and learn a sinking fastball. Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson taught him to stand taller in his delivery to get more of a downward angle on his pitches and, consequently, more movement.
That worked, but Crain could no longer push off the mound as hard with his legs, which diminished his velocity. It was a big issue this spring when he reported to camp and could only hit 90 mph on the radar gun.
"At first, I was kind of scared," he said. "I didn't know what I had to do."
Anderson said it forced Crain to adapt. He sharpened his sinker and threw his curveball more.
"It's been a wonderful pitch for him," Anderson said. "He even had a game this spring when he threw a lot of breaking balls. I told him you have to do what you do to survive. He's only been up here a year and has been pitching professional for two years before that, and he is still learning."
Crain still throws a straight fastball. As he's gotten more comfortable with his mechanics, his velocity has begun to creep upward. He's hit 93 mph on the gun several times recently and has touched 94 once, although radar gun readings vary from stadium to stadium. So he can throw two different fastballs, a slider and an occasional curveball at hitters.
The Twins believe their bullpen is as deep as last year's, with Crain, Rincon and J.C. Romero serving as the main setup men for Nathan.
"Pitching at this level is more about getting confidence," Crain said. "Obviously, you belong here or you would not be up here. But to actually feel like you belong here is great. I got on a nice little roll, and I feel like I'm supposed to get these guys out."

Free Jonny Gomes

lonestar — Thu, 09 Jun 2005 16:14:41 -0000

pondering the erstwhile D-Ray

Why is Jonny Gomes not playing in Tampa Bay?
Where does he fit into their plans?
What kind of defense does he play?
Can he play first base?
What kind of splits does he have?
What kind of MLB averages could a team expect in 2005 (assuming neutral park)?
What kind of offensive averages could a team expect in 2008 (age 27)?
What would it take to obtain him in trade?

Background: I am a Twins fan, looking for a DH and 4th/5th OF and possibly a back-up 1B. I am disappointed in LeCroy and not willing to take on Sweeney. Gomes looks to me as good as most of the alternatives in terms of offense (average, discipline, power), let alone price ( salary and talent given up). Also, he might fit into future plans when Jones and/or Stewart are gone.

I was thinking of trading Boof Bonser for Jonny Gomes. Is this a realistic trade?

Draft Choice Distribution

lonestar — Thu, 26 May 2005 16:48:42 -0000

What is a reasonable distribution of draft choices between position players and pitchers over time?

Example: Last year the Minnesota Twins had 14 picks in the first 10 rounds. They spent 11 on pitchers. Over the last 5 years, they have spent 37 out of 56 picks in the first 10 rounds on pitchers. They are rumored to be taking 7 pitchers with their first 10 picks this year.

In the meanwhile, their upper minor league system is bereft of position prospects except for SS Jason Bartlett who is blocked by Juan Castro.

Can the Twins sustain and enhance their overall talent and competitiveness by spending 2/3 of their top 10 picks on pitching -- perhaps trading pitching for position players?