SB Nation User Blog: losjanks

Free Agents / Teixiera

losjanks — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 21:01:45 -0000

I have some thoughts about Teixiera. Pete A doesn't think the Yanks are really going to go after him. I agree with his analysis on the economics.

But:

1. What if Boston makes a real play for Teixiera?
2. Even if we sign CC and another FA pitcher, how do we make the playoffs when we have lost the production of Abreu and Giambi? (nearly 200 runs created between them)

First, If Cash doesn't make an effort to sign Tex and the Sox nab him - and they subsequently club us into submission in '09 - wouldn't that be tantamount to suicide?

Second, If we want to make the playoffs next year we have to leapfrog either Boston or Tampa Bay; that's doable, but not necessarily easy. Why throw $20+M per at CC and hope that your hitters will put up enough runs to jump the Sawks and/or the Rays? That doesn't make sense to me. If they are going to go the free agent route, why not commit to the strategy and get the best position player on the market (who, by the way, plays a position where we have been weak defensively for the last few years - and plays it well).

Otherwise, why throw any money at CC at all? Clearly we are not on a 5 year plan. If we were, then why not wait to see if Joba and Hughes develop into the starters we think they can be and avoid sacrificing draft picks by signing big free agents? If we drop in the standings, all the better, we will get higher draft picks and be able to build a farm system capable of producing some real talent in the position player department (a la Stick's work in the early 90's). As it stands, we don't have any real hitters/position players in the pipeline. Yes, Ajax is highly touted. But he's at the top of a short list of position players with a high ceiling and he's not ready for the majors yet. On top of that we have no idea if he will ever be as good as Tex - who is clearly the best position player on the market - let alone how good he will be when he first makes it to the show.

The Bronx unloaded a TON of payroll (perhaps as much as $80M, with almost $40M between Giambi and Abreu alone, according to USA Today) but the offensive production of those two players hasn't been replaced (Swisher ain't bad, can you honestly make the argument that he replaces both Abreu and Giambi?). So even if our starting rotation gets better assuming we get CC and for the sake of argument, Lowe - our lineup as it stands today is weaker than last year's - wouldn't the Yanks just be treading water? Do you think that's good enough to jump either the Sox or the Rays in the standings?

Hopefully we will get better production out of Jorge (if he's healthy enough to catch all year) and Cano - but those are still big question marks to my eyes.

It's not like Cash couldn't make room for Tex. Moving either Nady or Damon could be possible (preferably Damon, though the Yanks would probably have to eat some of his contract if they could find a trading partner - and I'm not sure whether he has a no-trade in is contract). If he could pull that off, there would re room for Swisher in one of the corner OF positions. Cashman's own words seem to suggest he would be OK with starting Swisher at a corner position, "He’s a guy who can give us plus defense at the corners".

I would love to see left to right: Nady, Gardner/Melky/Ajax, Swisher in the outfield with Arod, Jeter, Cano and Tex left to right in the infield and Jorge catching. DH Matsui or Damon (if you can't get rid of him) and rest Jorge once a week. Bat them however you like.

I could see why Cashman would want to give the impression that he's not in the running for Tex (he can be Greenspanian in his vagueness). But I don't see them making the playoffs next year if they don't sign Tex (as well as signing CC and another starter who can fit into the 3rd slot in the rotation). The thing is that they have a lot of money to spend and a decent amount of ground to cover in order to bridge the gap between them and Boston and Tampa.

I acknowledge that they will go after FA pitchers aggressively because they have the money and want to stock up so that they are not depending on the young arms like they were last year. I also am aware that Boras wants 10 years for Teixiera and that's likely out of the range of the plausible for the Yanks, but given the current state of the economy, isn't that a bit unrealistic for just about any team? If the Yanks can't afford him, who can? Plus we got Boras to come down on his demand for 7 years with Damon a few years ago - maybe we could nab Tex with an offer of 6 years / $20M per.

The only limitation that I'm aware of is that Cashman said they wouldn't spend more than they did last year (approx. $382M on long term free agent signings). So we are almost halfway there already with our offer to Sabathia, and there is only so much room in there. But I don't see the door as totally shut to Tex, unless you think Lowe or Burnett can command the kind of salary that CC can.

I realize that I might be splitting hairs here, "Is the door totally shut?" vs. "Is the door open just a crack?" Last year was pretty good evidence that pitching is more important than hitting, but I don't see Swisher as enough of an addition to keep them at the level they will need to be at in order to compete in the AL East even if we get CC.

Igawa drawing interest?

losjanks — Sat, 28 Jul 2007 18:35:33 -0000

Yesterday, Michael Kay of ESPN radio cited a Buster Olney report that Kei Igawa is drawing interest around the league (about halfway through the podcast).

And just this morning MLB Trade Rumors speculated about the M's interest in the recently demoted Yankee pitcher, linking to a Seattle Times post which referenced an uncredited TV report.

Apparently the Mariners have some interest in twice-demoted Yankees starter Kei Igawa, according to an uncited TV report. The report pleased Ichiro Suzuki and Kenji Johjima.

Igawa is locked up through 2011, which may or may not be a positive. He earns another $1.5MM this year plus $4MM annually through the end of the contract. The posting fee situation ensures that Igawa's salary is really cheap, the price a team might pay for a semi-utility guy like Mark DeRosa. If Igawa can be league average in the comfy confines of Safeco, he's a bargain. More likely he'd have value to an NL team.

I don't know about anyone else, but I've given up on Igawa. Almost anything we can get back for him is worth it in my eyes. Maybe we can get a couple of mid-level position player prospects from Seattle, assuming they have some.

I tend to agree with the folks at MTR, though, that he would seem to have more value to an NL team. I don't think Igawa has the stuff to make it in the AL right now.

What to do if/when Giambi gets back

losjanks — Fri, 27 Jul 2007 17:25:03 -0000

We have had some discussion about Giambi getting close to coming back and whether that's a good thing or not.

Meanwhile, it remains to be seen if he is actually as close to returning as he thinks he is.

July 26, 2007 - Associated Press

Manager Joe Torre said both he and GM Brian Cashman thought DH Jason Giambi's prediction that he would be ready to rejoin the team next week might be overly optimistic. Giambi has been out since May 30 with torn tissue in his left foot and is set to start a minor league rehab assignment on Friday with Class-A Tampa. ``I just talked to Cash about that, and he, like I, thought that was a little quick,'' Torre said. ``I don't know who communicated that to Jason. I haven't.''

But I'm curious to see what we think we could actually do with him when he does return to the team.

I bring this up because when you look at it, there aren't many places where he fits into the lineup (at least at first blush).

Here is Giambi's line from the beginning of the season. It is not good enough in my opinion to warrant plopping him in to the 5th or 6th hole in the order right away, but it is good enough to warrant giving him some at bats to prove that we can move him into one of those slots if he puts up some numbers first. I'm going to try to list a set of assumptions:

Giambi is limited to dh, and is a superior option over Damon at dh.
Andy Phillips should be our regular 1b as long as he bats in the 7, 8 or 9 hole.
Melky Cabrera is far superior to Johnny Damon in cf, and measurably superior to Damon at the plate.
Melky might actually be our best option at leadoff (please see his splits when batting leadoff; to summarize: 80 AB .275 BA .379 OBP .375 SLG .754 OPS) - I know it's a small sample set, but it is encouraging.
Hideki Matsui is far superior to Damon at the plate and is at worst, only slightly worse than Damon in lf, and at best equal with him in lf.
Joe Torre will continue to insist upon his alternating L and R batters in the order (I don't wish to have an argument about whether or not this is a good idea, I'm simply stating that Torre will be Torre and this is a batting order philosophy he is very unlikely to break with).
Historically, Robinson Cano does his best hitting in the #7 hole.

So...that's a lot of setup, I know, but where does that leave us? Consequently, I'm interested in hearing other considerations that I may have left out in my set of assumptions.

WHERE DO WE BAT THIS GUY?

Ninth.

It ought to fit with all the previous assumptions and I think it even leaves some flexibility in the lineup late in games (more on that later). Here is my proposed order (in case it's not obvious the extra letter after the batters' position is their batting preference: left, right or switch):

Cabrera cf s
Jeter ss r
Abreu rf l
Rodgriguez 3b r
Matsui lf l
Posada ca s
Cano 2b l
Phillips 1b r
Giambi dh l

At least until he proves he can really rake like we all hope he can. Admittedly, he won't have any real protection between Phillips and Cabrera, but he'd be a guy who can likely get on base (more than Damon at this point, at least) and not eat up outs. If he draws the customary 7th or 8th inning walk in a close game there is a simple solution: pinch run with Damon and you don't need to burn two bench players to replace him because you can leave Damon at dh.

The biggest problem I see has been Torre's historical reluctance to sit guys with big contracts (ie Damon in this case).

Poll

Which Giambi will we see when he returns?

Giambi from April: .322 BA .404 OBP .517 SLG .921 OPS

5 votes

Giambi from May: .177 BA .350 OBP .323 SLG .673 OPS

2 votes

Somewhere in between

18 votes

25 votes | Poll has closed