Bob Dutton, commonly believed to be a lacky for the Royals, cited driveline mechanic's article on catcher defense in his Royals article in the Star today. Basically, he was using that source as a reason why the Royals were looking to make changes at the catcher position this offseason.

So, let me get this straight:

Advanced defensive metrics are USELESS when trying to evaluate a shortstop you traded too much for to acquire.

Advanced defensive metrics are USEFUL when trying to justify a potential move you have already decided is needed in the offseason.

Thanks, Bob, for clearing that up for us. Granted, these two positions SEEM diametrically opposed to each other - but obviously that's my fault, as I can't be educated, don't trust the process, and am an impatient product of a "want it now" society.

I recently was browsing thru Billy Butler's minor league stats on baseball-reference.com and noticed that Butler has 4.1 innings of pitching (1 game) on his resume from 2004 in rookie league ball. I thought that was very odd, for many reasons, not the least of which was it obviously not a "mop up" in a blowout, since he allegedly faced 25 batters. I then did some research, and found that Billy Buckner was on the same team that year, and thought to myself - well, that's an easy explanation: the boxscore simply was misrecorded or something. In addition, I really doubt the Royals would have approved of using a #1 draft pick in an emergency "mop up in a blowout" role in the first place - surely that job would fall to a lesser talent, right? Also have never heard anyone mention this before - and as much as we all followed Billy's progress, surely somebody would have asked if it were true, right?

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Talking to a season ticket holder Tuesday night; a guy who knows some of the front office personnel, supposedly. I think he knows some of the lower level guys, not the top-rung people, but still, some of the things he has told me the club was toying with doing in the past actually ended up playing out eventually.

If the Royals were able to get rid of Guillen, they would consider moving Callaspo to 3B, Gordon to 1B, and Butler to DH, with Aviles getting a shot at winning the 2B job next year, or acquiring a 2B and using Aviles as MI utility man. There is some thought in the organization that Callaspo's defensive "abilities" play out much better at 3B than 2B, because while his range is limited, he has quick reflexes and a strong arm ( much stronger than needed at 2B).

Now, I have no idea if this guy is accurate this time - but at least this makes some sense. It would strenghten the team defensively in several positions, while having the added benefit of not losing the offensive value of Callaspo's bat (800 OPS at 3B is acceptable). Assuming Aviles this season is irrelevant, since he was trying to hit with basically ONE ARM all year, and it is not inconceivable that he would be more than adequate offensively for 2B. I think we can all agree that he would be adequate defensively there, and a significant upgrade from Callaspo defensively.

The key to the offseason is to get rid of Guillen, somehow, someway. The Cubs are desperate to get rid of Bradley. Despite whatever issues he might bring, he is a SIGNIFICANT upgrade talent-wise over Guillen. Would love to see Moore pull that off, somehow.

I noticed that Butler now has 274 total bases on the season, giving him an outside shot at the coveted 300 TB figure.

This has been accomplished only 18 times in team history, by a total of only 10 players:

Brett 4 times

Beltran 3

Dye, McRae, Sweeney 2 times each

Damon, Cowens, Tartabull, Mayberry, Seitzer once each

Obviously, that reads like a who's who of Royals hitters. Would be great to see Billy stay hot enough to pick up 26 more TBs in the last 12 games. Odds are against that, as his pace is only for about 296.

Didn't bother to research the ages of any of these when accomplished - but I'll bet only two or three (at most) were able to do it at age 23 or less.

Let's look at this again. In my mind, there are 3 primary competitors (not counting Rivera):

Sabathia, Verlander, Hernandez.

Assuming Greinke keeps his ERA around 2.25, and gets his win total to, say 16-8 or even 16-9, here's what we need to root for:

Sabathia currently has 17 wins, but, AND THIS IS CRUCIAL, most likely has only 3 starts left. (19th, 24th, 29th, then they would likely skip him the last weekend so he could start the playoff opener). If he falls short of the magical 20 win figure, then Greinke could beat him out.

Verlander currently has 16 wins, but like Sabathia, most likely has only 3 starts left, IF, AND THIS IS A BIG IF, Detroit can clinch it before the last weekend. (Verlander pitches on the 19th, 24th, 29th, then skipped on the weekend so he could open the playoffs). Bottom line - no way Verlander gets to 20 wins.

King Felix - currently has 15 wins, and like Greinke will only get 4 more starts. (18th, 23rd, 28th, Oct 3rd). Can't get to 20 wins either, but we really need him to stay only 1 or 2 wins ahead of Greinke, and for Zack to maintain his current ERA gap over Hernandez of about a third of a run or so.

Looking at the schedule, it may come down to THE ROYALS HITTERS, who may need to get Sabathia a ND or a loss in his last start, which looks like it will be against KC.

You will note I'm discounting the voters doing something idiotic like give it to Rivera as some sort of career achievement award. I may be making a big mistake discounting this - but I'm hopeful the voters are sufficiently more informed now than they have been in the past.

I'm about to start the semifinals of a fantasy league playoffs; league is points based. Playoff period is 2 weeks, but can change lineup after the 1st week. Anyway, starting 5 pitchers, and I'm actually thinking about benching Greinke due to the vagueness of Hillman saying they are gonna give him an extra day or two or rest this week. My options to replace him would be Mark Buehrle or Max Scherzer. Key info is that both Buehrle and Scherzer start tomorrow, meaning they will get 2 starts instead of 1. The league gives +10 for a win, <5> for a loss. There is also 1 point for each out, 1 for each K, <1> for each hit or BB, and <3> for each ER.

Am I nuts? How can I bench the best pitcher in baseball? I'm frustrated because I can't find confirmation ANYWHERE on when Zack will actually make his next start. (I could KILL Hillman for leaving him in for 125 pitches last night for no damn apparent reason)

I used to send occasional emails to a fellow peanut vendor, with a tidbit demonstrating how bad things have become. Called it "Royals depressing stat of the day" Thought it would be fun here too.

09 Yankees now have 7 players with 20+ Hrs this season. Jeter is at 17, so this may or may not go to 8 players. Assuming Olivo, Jacobs, Butler all stay below 20, and Jeter does make it to 20, then:

09 Yankees would have more guys with 20+ Hrs than the Royals had in the last EIGHT years combined!

Here are the gory details:

09 Royals: none

08: Guillen 20

07: None (Buck led with 18)

06: None (Teahen led with 18)

05: Sweeney 21

04: Sweeney 22

03: Beltran 26

02: Beltran 29, Ibanez 24, Sweeney 24

With recent poor outings from Halladay & Beckett, not to mention a mediocre loss by King Felix and a mediocre win by Verlander last night, I still think the AL Cy Young race is wide open, and that with a strong finish, Greinke could still pull it out. Let's look at the other candidates:

Good pitchers on playoff teams: I'm lumping Sabathia, Verlander, and Beckett in this group. All will have significantly better W-L record than Greinke - but all currently have an ERA of a nearly a full run (or more, in some cases) higher than Zack. Best hope is that nobody in this group reaches the magical 20 win figure. Not entirely impossible, as 15 is the most anybody has right now and the season is a bit more than three-fourths complete. In addition, it looks like for Sabathia that the Yanks will clinch early, and they may wish to have him skip a start at the end of the year.

Great pitchers on bad teams: This is Hernandez and Halliday - and if I were voting, these two would be the main contenders along with Greinke. Hernandez is 12-5, ERA is only three-tenths higher than Zack. Greinke probably needs to close the gap on the W-L record here; increasing his ERA lead to a half-run wouldn't hurt either. Holliday's ERA is now over 3; however, I'd bet he gets it under 3 again before the year ends. Don't underestimate that, as there probably is a huge subconcious difference to an uninformed voter between say, a 3.10 and a 2.95 ERA, as illogical as that may sound.

Bottom line - what does Zack have to do in his remaining 8 starts to get what he deserves? My best guess is he needs to win minimum of 6 of these, and lose no more than 1 more. That would have him finish at 17-9 or 18-9. Also think he needs to win the ERA title by at least three-quarters of a run over the Sabathia, Verlander, and Beckett trio. Probably needs to stay three-tenths or more ahead of King Felix and Halliday. Strikeouts, CG, and shutout categories are all good for Zack already - adding another shutout wouldn't hurt, and merely maintaining his current rank in Ks (2nd) would probably suffice.

So, what are the odds? Just a guess, but I think he has about a 15% chance at this point of all this happening. Maybe I'm just an optimist when it comes to Zack - what do you all think his chances are?

Decided to run stats on AL players since the All-Star break. Using minimum of 125 PAs since the All-Star break (approximating "qualified" status), Billy's 950 OPS since the break ranks 9th in the American League.

Sure, this is a small sample size - but if he has indeed "turned the corner" like it seems he may have, it sure looks like we have found a legit middle of the order hitter. (That leaves us 2 middle of the order hitters short, as I think you need to have studs at 3,4, and 5 to actually have an above avg offense)

Will be interesting to see how he finishes out this season.

Sorry for constantly posting about Billy - I'm about as obsessed with his talent as I was a couple of years ago posting about Greinke's talent. Heh - I guess that's not such a bad thing! Greinke ended up justifying my foaming at the mouth over him; maybe Butler will do the same.