I noticed that Hochevar is leading the 2011 Royals pitching staff in Ks with a startingly low total of 66. Considering the new 6 man rotation, which means Luke might only have 10 starts left, and considering he averages about 4.5 K per 9 IP, I decided a little research was in order. Just how many times have the Royals had their strikeout leader fail to post at least 100 Ks in a season?

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Lost in the hub bub that was yesterday's game was Danny Duffy's performance. Duffy's nine strikeouts of the first eighteen batters faced was only the 10th time that has been ever done since 1919.

After the jump is the list:

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I'll follow the lead of our leader, Will - and suggest tasks in a month-by-month format:

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I tend to try to see things in the simplest terms, seeking the simplest answers. This leads me to this simple analysis of why the Royals starting rotation has been SO bad this year:

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I would love to see the Royals spend some real money on this and solve their depth problem in the middle infield.

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I know ERA isn't exactly the best measuring stick, but for simplicity's sake, look at these charts of the Royals and the AL's ERA and ERA plus since 2005, and then try to tell me why this isn't one of the most depressing Royal seasons in a long time:

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Let's get this out of the way first:

I'm not sure what this means, and I do realize most opposing pitchers are right handed. Still, these are very bizzare results for 2010

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I've been thinking of this for a while - there are only 3 assets the Royals can really trade that will actually provide the type of prospect haul to substantially increase the odds that the current bumper crop growing in the Royals minors will, after being supplemented by these trades, be so overwhelming that they could possibly render Moore's poor ML evaluations moot. Here we go:

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MLB is running a new 6 part show in the mold of NFL Hard Knocks. This one follows the White Sox. I watched the first episode last night - thought they went thru ST and the beginning of the season sorta fast. I think this sort of show has huge potential - but perhaps this version somewhat lacked the polish typical of  the "Hard Knocks" series I've seen. Wonder if that is due to MLB having more limited footage available to edit, or the baseball season being so long, it makes it difficult to see the forest for the trees when editing?

Your thoughts?

Heh, it's never too early to post (and overreact) to what is (so far) a disturbing trend, even if the trend could easily be heavily skewed by small sample size.

Never-the-less, I want to look at some data periodically thru the year, to see if Moore can even deliver on his paper thin, ill-conceived, and poorly executed Process®

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"...We never led the league in home runs,..."

Brett, commenting on how his Royals of the 70s and 80s won with speed, defense, doubles, triples, stolen bases, and fundamentals.

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"The measure of success is not whether you have a tough problem to deal with, but whether it's the same problem you had last year"

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Bob Dutton, commonly believed to be a lacky for the Royals, cited driveline mechanic's article on catcher defense in his Royals article in the Star today. Basically, he was using that source as a reason why the Royals were looking to make changes at the catcher position this offseason.

So, let me get this straight:

Advanced defensive metrics are USELESS when trying to evaluate a shortstop you traded too much for to acquire.

Advanced defensive metrics are USEFUL when trying to justify a potential move you have already decided is needed in the offseason.

Thanks, Bob, for clearing that up for us. Granted, these two positions SEEM diametrically opposed to each other - but obviously that's my fault, as I can't be educated, don't trust the process, and am an impatient product of a "want it now" society.

I recently was browsing thru Billy Butler's minor league stats on baseball-reference.com and noticed that Butler has 4.1 innings of pitching (1 game) on his resume from 2004 in rookie league ball. I thought that was very odd, for many reasons, not the least of which was it obviously not a "mop up" in a blowout, since he allegedly faced 25 batters. I then did some research, and found that Billy Buckner was on the same team that year, and thought to myself - well, that's an easy explanation: the boxscore simply was misrecorded or something. In addition, I really doubt the Royals would have approved of using a #1 draft pick in an emergency "mop up in a blowout" role in the first place - surely that job would fall to a lesser talent, right? Also have never heard anyone mention this before - and as much as we all followed Billy's progress, surely somebody would have asked if it were true, right?

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Talking to a season ticket holder Tuesday night; a guy who knows some of the front office personnel, supposedly. I think he knows some of the lower level guys, not the top-rung people, but still, some of the things he has told me the club was toying with doing in the past actually ended up playing out eventually.

If the Royals were able to get rid of Guillen, they would consider moving Callaspo to 3B, Gordon to 1B, and Butler to DH, with Aviles getting a shot at winning the 2B job next year, or acquiring a 2B and using Aviles as MI utility man. There is some thought in the organization that Callaspo's defensive "abilities" play out much better at 3B than 2B, because while his range is limited, he has quick reflexes and a strong arm ( much stronger than needed at 2B).

Now, I have no idea if this guy is accurate this time - but at least this makes some sense. It would strenghten the team defensively in several positions, while having the added benefit of not losing the offensive value of Callaspo's bat (800 OPS at 3B is acceptable). Assuming Aviles this season is irrelevant, since he was trying to hit with basically ONE ARM all year, and it is not inconceivable that he would be more than adequate offensively for 2B. I think we can all agree that he would be adequate defensively there, and a significant upgrade from Callaspo defensively.

The key to the offseason is to get rid of Guillen, somehow, someway. The Cubs are desperate to get rid of Bradley. Despite whatever issues he might bring, he is a SIGNIFICANT upgrade talent-wise over Guillen. Would love to see Moore pull that off, somehow.

I noticed that Butler now has 274 total bases on the season, giving him an outside shot at the coveted 300 TB figure.

This has been accomplished only 18 times in team history, by a total of only 10 players:

Brett 4 times

Beltran 3

Dye, McRae, Sweeney 2 times each

Damon, Cowens, Tartabull, Mayberry, Seitzer once each

Obviously, that reads like a who's who of Royals hitters. Would be great to see Billy stay hot enough to pick up 26 more TBs in the last 12 games. Odds are against that, as his pace is only for about 296.

Didn't bother to research the ages of any of these when accomplished - but I'll bet only two or three (at most) were able to do it at age 23 or less.

Let's look at this again. In my mind, there are 3 primary competitors (not counting Rivera):

Sabathia, Verlander, Hernandez.

Assuming Greinke keeps his ERA around 2.25, and gets his win total to, say 16-8 or even 16-9, here's what we need to root for:

Sabathia currently has 17 wins, but, AND THIS IS CRUCIAL, most likely has only 3 starts left. (19th, 24th, 29th, then they would likely skip him the last weekend so he could start the playoff opener). If he falls short of the magical 20 win figure, then Greinke could beat him out.

Verlander currently has 16 wins, but like Sabathia, most likely has only 3 starts left, IF, AND THIS IS A BIG IF, Detroit can clinch it before the last weekend. (Verlander pitches on the 19th, 24th, 29th, then skipped on the weekend so he could open the playoffs). Bottom line - no way Verlander gets to 20 wins.

King Felix - currently has 15 wins, and like Greinke will only get 4 more starts. (18th, 23rd, 28th, Oct 3rd). Can't get to 20 wins either, but we really need him to stay only 1 or 2 wins ahead of Greinke, and for Zack to maintain his current ERA gap over Hernandez of about a third of a run or so.

Looking at the schedule, it may come down to THE ROYALS HITTERS, who may need to get Sabathia a ND or a loss in his last start, which looks like it will be against KC.

You will note I'm discounting the voters doing something idiotic like give it to Rivera as some sort of career achievement award. I may be making a big mistake discounting this - but I'm hopeful the voters are sufficiently more informed now than they have been in the past.

I'm about to start the semifinals of a fantasy league playoffs; league is points based. Playoff period is 2 weeks, but can change lineup after the 1st week. Anyway, starting 5 pitchers, and I'm actually thinking about benching Greinke due to the vagueness of Hillman saying they are gonna give him an extra day or two or rest this week. My options to replace him would be Mark Buehrle or Max Scherzer. Key info is that both Buehrle and Scherzer start tomorrow, meaning they will get 2 starts instead of 1. The league gives +10 for a win, <5> for a loss. There is also 1 point for each out, 1 for each K, <1> for each hit or BB, and <3> for each ER.

Am I nuts? How can I bench the best pitcher in baseball? I'm frustrated because I can't find confirmation ANYWHERE on when Zack will actually make his next start. (I could KILL Hillman for leaving him in for 125 pitches last night for no damn apparent reason)

I used to send occasional emails to a fellow peanut vendor, with a tidbit demonstrating how bad things have become. Called it "Royals depressing stat of the day" Thought it would be fun here too.

09 Yankees now have 7 players with 20+ Hrs this season. Jeter is at 17, so this may or may not go to 8 players. Assuming Olivo, Jacobs, Butler all stay below 20, and Jeter does make it to 20, then:

09 Yankees would have more guys with 20+ Hrs than the Royals had in the last EIGHT years combined!

Here are the gory details:

09 Royals: none

08: Guillen 20

07: None (Buck led with 18)

06: None (Teahen led with 18)

05: Sweeney 21

04: Sweeney 22

03: Beltran 26

02: Beltran 29, Ibanez 24, Sweeney 24

With recent poor outings from Halladay & Beckett, not to mention a mediocre loss by King Felix and a mediocre win by Verlander last night, I still think the AL Cy Young race is wide open, and that with a strong finish, Greinke could still pull it out. Let's look at the other candidates:

Good pitchers on playoff teams: I'm lumping Sabathia, Verlander, and Beckett in this group. All will have significantly better W-L record than Greinke - but all currently have an ERA of a nearly a full run (or more, in some cases) higher than Zack. Best hope is that nobody in this group reaches the magical 20 win figure. Not entirely impossible, as 15 is the most anybody has right now and the season is a bit more than three-fourths complete. In addition, it looks like for Sabathia that the Yanks will clinch early, and they may wish to have him skip a start at the end of the year.

Great pitchers on bad teams: This is Hernandez and Halliday - and if I were voting, these two would be the main contenders along with Greinke. Hernandez is 12-5, ERA is only three-tenths higher than Zack. Greinke probably needs to close the gap on the W-L record here; increasing his ERA lead to a half-run wouldn't hurt either. Holliday's ERA is now over 3; however, I'd bet he gets it under 3 again before the year ends. Don't underestimate that, as there probably is a huge subconcious difference to an uninformed voter between say, a 3.10 and a 2.95 ERA, as illogical as that may sound.

Bottom line - what does Zack have to do in his remaining 8 starts to get what he deserves? My best guess is he needs to win minimum of 6 of these, and lose no more than 1 more. That would have him finish at 17-9 or 18-9. Also think he needs to win the ERA title by at least three-quarters of a run over the Sabathia, Verlander, and Beckett trio. Probably needs to stay three-tenths or more ahead of King Felix and Halliday. Strikeouts, CG, and shutout categories are all good for Zack already - adding another shutout wouldn't hurt, and merely maintaining his current rank in Ks (2nd) would probably suffice.

So, what are the odds? Just a guess, but I think he has about a 15% chance at this point of all this happening. Maybe I'm just an optimist when it comes to Zack - what do you all think his chances are?

Decided to run stats on AL players since the All-Star break. Using minimum of 125 PAs since the All-Star break (approximating "qualified" status), Billy's 950 OPS since the break ranks 9th in the American League.

Sure, this is a small sample size - but if he has indeed "turned the corner" like it seems he may have, it sure looks like we have found a legit middle of the order hitter. (That leaves us 2 middle of the order hitters short, as I think you need to have studs at 3,4, and 5 to actually have an above avg offense)

Will be interesting to see how he finishes out this season.

Sorry for constantly posting about Billy - I'm about as obsessed with his talent as I was a couple of years ago posting about Greinke's talent. Heh - I guess that's not such a bad thing! Greinke ended up justifying my foaming at the mouth over him; maybe Butler will do the same.

OK, by now, everyone is pretty much burned out for this horrible season. Time for some laughs, in the form of a fun poll. I've heard people lament the dearth of good nicknames in baseball today - but the awesome posters of RR have come up with plenty of creative, derisive nicknames for the "talent" put on the field by our beloved Royals. Please vote for your favorite. (I'd love to give credit to whichever poster came up with these first, but I'm too lazy to research them. Only one I remember was that my daughter came up with the Ponson moniker, I believe. If I left out any good ones, I apologize - these four seem to be my favorites.

This player has more extra base hits this season than Michael Young, Ibanez, Hawpe, Damon, Cano, Zimmerman, Branyan, D Lee, Bay, Tulowitzki, Kinsler, Youkilis, J Upton, C Lee, Miguel Cabrera, Utley, Mauer, Kemp, and Zobrist, among others.

He has as may extra base hits as Sandoval, Adrian Gonzalez,  and Hanley Ramirez.

He is within 6 extra base hits or fewer of Fielder, Reynolds, Lind, Howard, Braun, Ethier, Morneau, K Morales, Dunn, and Longoria.

Of course, he is still quite a bit behind Teixeira (8 behind) and Pujols (15 behind)

He is ONLY 23 years old!

I'm sure everyone has guessed by now that I speak of Billy Butler. There are caveats here - he does play 1B, where this sort of production is expected, and he does need to convert some of his doubles to homeruns to truly match some of the guys listed above - but let me repeat something: HE'S TWENTY-THREE! It is probably gonna happen!

Rany had a great post today, in which he pointed out that amid a season that has been largely disastrous, two of the former 3 first round draft picks that we are counting on to be the cornerstones of the future have made the leap and done exactly that - set the stage for being the cornerstones we need going forward.

We all get caught up in the day to day disasters of this franchise, and (rightfully) are concerned with the abilities of the GM and the player development system, but having two probable stars going forward, under team control for 3 and 4 years respectively, is actually a good start towards building a contender. At least this season hasn't been a total waste, at least in this respect.

Here is a breakdown of Greinke's run support so far in 2009:

Royals have scored 4+ runs in only 7 of his 21 starts. He is 5-1 with 1 ND in that span (7 IP 3 ER in the ND). Only loss was the Arizona game (6.2 IP 4 ER; was undermined by shitty defense in that one)

Royals have scored 3 or less an incredible 14 times in his 21 starts. Despite that, Greinke is 5-5 in those games, and the bullpen contributed 4 Blown Saves in the other 4 games. This means that Greinke HAD HIS TEAM IN POSITION TO WIN 9 out of 14 times despite the team scoring 3 or less runs for him. Take a second and reread that. If that doesn't scream Cy Young winner, nothing does.

Royals scored a grand total of 9 runs in his 6 losses. (5 in one game, 3 in another)

Looking back at his game by game result, I'm going to guestimate what he would be with average run support and average bullpen support.

Here are the results I am "changing":

5/9 vs LA: 8 IP 1 ER  change from a L to a W (royals were shutout)

7/3 vs CWS: 6 IP 2 ER change from a L to a ND (royals were shutout, but Zack also allowed 2 more UER)

7/8   @ DET: 6 IP 3 ER change from a L to a ND (royals scored only 1 run)

7/24 TEX: 7 IP 1 ER change from a L to a W (royals shutout)

5/21; 6/11; 7/18; 7/29: change these 4 NDs to 3 Ws and a ND. These were the 4 blown save games. Greinke had a quality start in every one of these. (6 IP 2 ER twice, 7 IP 1 ER once, and 7.1 IP 3 ER once - with 2 of those runs scoring after he left the game). Notice I am allowing for 1 blown save, as being typical.

That leaves us with a 15-2 record, with 4 NDs - a much more representative record for a guy with an ERA+ still over 200 for the season.

If this continues and the voters ignore it when doling out the Cy Young, it will be a shame. The voters seemed to be more enlightened in recent years than they were 15 or 20 years ago, but you still have to worry about some "old school" guys who will use his W-L record to justify voting for somebody less deserving on a winning team.

Chris Lubanski, who is still only 24, has recently begun a rehab from an injury. In limited # of games in Omaha this spring, he had seemingly improved his BB and K rates quite a bit from 2008 Omaha numbers. In addition, his SB ability seemed to be on the rebound, as he posted 6 SB with 1 CS in only a month or so of action.

I heard an interview on 610 with him a few weeks back, in which he credited hard work with a personal trainer in the off season for his speed somewhat coming back; in addition, some increased quickness defensively as well. Sorta sounded like going thru being exposed to the minor league draft and being undrafted served as a wakeup call of sorts to him.

Anyway, with the Guillen injury, I assume Teahen will get most RF starts; however, remember that Gordon will need to be sat every 3rd or 4th game the rest of the way, and that means RF will be open for auditions a reasonable amount of the time.

The Guillen injury is now revealed to be 6-8 weeks (let's hope it's the latter), so that more or less could be, for all intents and purposes, the end of his season. I know we all are looking for reasons to continue watching this year (aren't we every year?); personally I'd love to see the team call him up soon and take a look. Of course, because this is logical and we're talking about the Royals, I'm sure it won't happen. The scouts have probably already decided one way or the other.

Thoughts, anyone?

Just noticed in the Sunday game thread where you were getting beat up pretty bad for defending Jose Guillen's attempt to reach 3rd on a Jacobs single. Just wanted to post something about the true odds in that situation (or at least a good approximation of the true odds).

To recap, for those who missed it, Guillen was gunned down at 3rd with 1 out on a single by Jacobs. Considerable debate ensued, where Gobbleforcyyoung defended Guillen, followed by a few people ripping him for doing so.

I went to Baseball Prospectus and used the dandy Run Scoring Matrix to calculate this. Here is the relavent data for this situation:

Man on 1st and 2nd, 1out - run expectancy is 0.9132

Man on 1st and 3rd, 1 out - run expectancy is 1.17692

Man on 1st, 2 outs - run expectancy is 0.22588

Obviously, these 3 situations are if Jose holds, if he goes for 3rd and makes it, and if he goes for 3rd and is out, respectively.

The question is, in my mind, is what % of the time does he have to be successful for it to be a good gamble? In other words, what is the "breakeven" % for trying for 3rd in this situation?

Formula:

(1.17692-0.9132) / (1.17692-0.22588)

= 0.26372 / 0.95104

=0.27730

In other words, Jose needs to make it 72.27% of the time in order to "break even"

Proving the math, (1.17692 * .7227) + (0.22588 * .2773) = 0.9132 runs,

AND (0.9132 * 1.0000) = 0.9132 runs

SOOOOOO,

the debate should have been along the lines of, "that's a good gamble by Jose/windmill Dave Owen, as long as there was about a 73% chance of him making it to 3rd safely", or "that was a bad gamble by Jose/windmill Dave Owen, there was less than a 72% chance of him making it".

Of course, no one knows these odds off the top of their head, but I think if everybody took a second and guessed it, they probably could have come reasonably close.

To conclude, I think you and your detractors were arguing about what the % was on this particular play - and that can be pretty damn hard for us to know as fans. The fact that the Pirates made it look riduculously easy sorta (perhaps?)  made it appear that the % was far below 73%, thus making your detractor's argument appear to be an easy one. I just think if every one involved had argued in this manner, rather than the manner which was used, would have resulted in a more enjoyable game thread debate.

Not trying to stir up any shit, or get on anyone at all - the situation was interesting, and I was interested enough to want to know exactly what the odds were on this play.

Another interesting aspect of this, to me, is that one would hope to have a team full of intelligent players, who instinctually know the odds in their heads, and thus know when and why to gamble, even if they don't know the odds per se. This sorta thing can be quantified, to some extent, in baserunning ratings, which I believe is yet another area in which the Royals are below average.

Here are three stat lines from the 2006 minor league AA season, all playing in the same league, and all basically playing a full season:

Player A: 23 yrs old, put up a 283/357/533 line with 60 BB and 109 K

Player B: 22 yrs old, put up a 325/427/588 line with 72 BB and 113 K

Player C: 20 yrs old, put up a 331/388/499 line with 41 BB and 67 K

Player A has gone on to post a combined OPS+ of 122 during 2007-09 in the majors

Player B has gone on to post a combined OPS+ of 97 during 2007-09 in the majors

Player C has gone on to post a combined OPS+ of 100 during 2007-09 in the majors

I'm sure the astute among you have already identified the above players - Hunter Pence is "A", Alex Gordon is "B", and Billy Butler is "C". These 3 prospects were definitely among the top in their league in 06, if not the best 3 prospects, period. Despite the odds in the Royals favor, we managed to miss on what appears to be the superior player by far among the three. Of course, this could end up changing  - especially since Butler has a significant age advantage over the other two - but for now, if you had to bet which would have the better career, you'ld have to go with Pence, wouldn't you?

Turning back the clock to the winter of 2006, I'd venture to guess that most GMs would not have traded either Butler or Gordon for Pence even up.

Is this just  a case of "that's prospects for you", or just another indictment of the Royals organization's MASSIVE failure to develop prospects?

Feel free to discuss (or cry, if it helps)

Where is KC headed with the bullpen?

First of all, Tejeda is nearing a return; hopefully Trey will decide to at least try him in more meaningful roles. Who is the odd man out when he returns? Is it Colon? Wright? Will they do something really bold, such as release or trade Mahay? My guess is it will be Colon, but I wouldn't mind if it was Wright instead.

What happens with Ponson once he rehabs and his 20 days are up? No way he replaces anybody in the rotation, or do you think he should replace either Davies or Hochevar? If not, do you see him filling a role in the bullpen? Personally, I don't think he is suited for that role AT ALL. If it were me, I'd ask him to pitch in Omaha, and if he balks, release him.

Saw where Chris Hayes has pitched 5 and 4 innings in his last 2 appearances in AAA. Pretty sure they are doing this just to get an extended look at him, and do not see him as a potential starter. Does this strike you as a sorta "fast tracking" of him, with the thought being maybe they are considering calling him up later this year? After all, he is 26 already. His unique style and singular skill (extreme GB pitcher) could be very attractive (OK, maybe not with our infield defense!). Sorta seems like he could be being groomed to take Wright's place as the staff GB specialist.

Please share your thoughts on any/all of these topics.