SBNation.com User Blog: loyal2sdad

An attempt to improve the HR Derby

loyal2sdad — Mon, 09 Jul 2012 22:51:07 -0000

The Billy Butler snub by Cano got me thinking: I don't usually pay much attention to the HR derby; why is that? Well, besides the obvious answer (it's not "real" baseball anymore than the NBA slam dunk contest is "real" basketball - and the NBA slam dunk "jumped the shark" so to speak, a long time ago anyway...), this year made another reality dawn on me. Maybe, just maybe, I would be interested if a player from a team I follow was involved. This lead to the idea below, after the jump.

Step 1: ALL THIRTY teams get to enter a player in the HR derby. I don't particularly care how they do it (by team leader, by a team HR derby, or even by lot is fine by me - just let each TEAM decide who)

Step 2: First round consists of 8 swings for each player (and players have only 10-12 pitches to take their 8 swings). Winner of each division (6 total) advance

Step 3: Semifinals are by league, with each division winner getting 10 swings (out of say, 15 pitches max)

Step 4: Finals (AL winner vs NL winner) can be conducted the same as now, with unlimited pitches, and a maximum of 10 "outs" ending the players turns.

Advantages of my proposal:

1) A fan of ANY team has a rooting interest. Even after the first round, rooting for your division winner, should your guy not advance, (or rooting AGAINST him!) would still be better than the current format

2) Upset/underdog possibilities! For example, what if Seattle decided to send Ichiro as their representative? Or if Houston decided to send Jose Altuve? Kind of compelling, huh?

3) Given the limit on pitches in the first and second round, I would argue that the drama could easily be heightened from the current format (which, one could argue, tends to make the whole thing kind of drag on at times)

OK, there you have it. Begin ripping it to shreds (or recommend it if you like it!)

A look at Strikeout-challenged starting staffs in Royals history

loyal2sdad — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 20:30:52 -0000

I noticed that Hochevar is leading the 2011 Royals pitching staff in Ks with a startingly low total of 66. Considering the new 6 man rotation, which means Luke might only have 10 starts left, and considering he averages about 4.5 K per 9 IP, I decided a little research was in order. Just how many times have the Royals had their strikeout leader fail to post at least 100 Ks in a season?

The answer is twice. In 1983, Paul Splittorff actually LED the team with the grand total of 61 Ks. The other time will be not be a surprise to RR readers. It was Mark Redman (All-Star!) with 76 Ks in 2006.

The 2006 starting staff was actually a LOT worse than 1983 - but 1983 deserves a few "shudders" of its own. Consider these stats for the top 6 pitchers in games started that season (K/9, ERA+, and age):

Vida Blue 5.6, 68, 33

Gaylord Perry 4.3, 96, 44

Steve Renko 4.0, 95, 38

Paul Splittorff 3.5, 112, 36

Larry Gura 3.4, 83, 35

Buddy Black 3.2, 108, 26

Those 6 pitchers accounted for 126 starts. 807 IP produced 279 walks and only 323 strikeouts.

Of course, strikeouts weren't the same animal in 1983 as they are today, and of course, a serious look at 2006 shows that staff to be infinitely worse than 83's. Here are the ERA+ figures for the top 5 in games started in 2006:

Luke Hudson 92

Scott Elarton 88

Odalis Perez 84

Mark Redman 82

Runelvys Hernandez 73

Egads. I set out researching this because I was upset with the lack of strikeout ability in our current rotation. This little excercise actually managed to make me feel a bit better. After all, at least the current team has two relatively young pitchers with strikeout ability - Paulino and Duffy. Is it enough? Of course not - but it's a start. Things looked MUCH bleaker, pitching wise, in the summer of 1983. In short order, the team's fortunes were turned around by the arrival of a bunch of young, talented pitchers almost all at once. Yes, it is difficult for that to come together like it did in 1984 - but it is at least possible. Throw in that the 2011 staff is arguably ahead of where the 1983 staff was, and there you have it - PARADE!

We need a positive post

loyal2sdad — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 18:44:43 -0000

Lost in the hub bub that was yesterday's game was Danny Duffy's performance. Duffy's nine strikeouts of the first eighteen batters faced was only the 10th time that has been ever done since 1919.

After the jump is the list:

Lost in the hub bub that was yesterday's game was Danny Duffy's performance. Duffy's nine strikeouts of the first eighteen batters faced was only the 10th time that has been ever done since 1919.

After the jump is the list:

Nolan Ryan (10 Ks)

John Henry Johnson (10)

Jordan Zimmerman (9)

John Smoltz (9) (did it twice)

Chad Billingsley (9)

Randy Johnson (9)

Hideo Nomo (9)

Ron Guidry (9)

Got to admit, that is a pretty damn impressive list. Now, I have no idea if this event has "signature significance", to coin an old term first used by Bill James - but it's fun to dream that it might.

My REAL concern, however, is that the Royals somehow think this was a bad performance because he used 95 pitches or so. Yes, I want Duffy to throw more strikes - but sure as hell NOT at the expense of intentionally ignoring his ability to strikeout batters.

1985 DVD Contest: Abridged edition

loyal2sdad — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 21:14:04 -0000

I'll follow the lead of our leader, Will - and suggest tasks in a month-by-month format:

July 2011: Focus energy and effort on improving the starting pitching

August 2011: Focus energy and effort on improving the starting pitching

September 2011: Focus energy and effort on improving the starting pitching

Off-Season 2011/2012: For good measure, continue to focus energy and effort on improving the starting pitcher

2012 Season: See prior season and off-season. Repeat.

Why the Royals starters have sucked this year

loyal2sdad — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 21:44:34 -0000

I tend to try to see things in the simplest terms, seeking the simplest answers. This leads me to this simple analysis of why the Royals starting rotation has been SO bad this year:

Average Ks per 9 IPs, AL starters: 6.37

Royals starters: 4.75

13th and 12th in this category in the AL: 5.64 (Min) and 5.74 (Cle)

Only Duffy (7.52), Paulino (7.20, but only 1 start), and Davies (6.37) have managed to match the AL average - everybody else is worse, including some ridiculously low figures (O'Sullivan 3.10; Hochevar 4.18)

It's simply too hard to succeed with these kind of strikeout rates. You would have to have a DER of, say 725 or so, to turn a staff this lacking in strikeouts into a successful rotation.

This leads me to my final point: Is this simply the Royals reluctance to try some of their bullpen arms in the rotation, seeing as how most of them might be capable of higher K rates? Or is it symptomatic of a bigger problem; i.e., the organization's ill-conceived strategy of preaching "pitch to contact" as the solution for any and all pitching woes? (Because, you know, it most decidedly is NOT the solution. If you can strike people out, for chrissakes the organization should be ENCOURAGING that)

Kane County Cougars playing in Busch Stadium May 26th

loyal2sdad — Mon, 16 May 2011 18:34:20 -0000

For Royals fans stuck in STL area - Kane County will be playing a game in Busch Stadium on 5/26 versus STL low a team (Quad Cities River Bandits). A chance to look into the (distant) future and see Michael Eibner in CF and, if you're lucky, the recently promoted Yordani Ventura on the mound. Ventura made his first start of the year on the 15th; barring rainouts and assuming a 5 man rotation, it would be his turn to start on the 26th.

Japanese shortstop Noshioka will be posted

loyal2sdad — Wed, 10 Nov 2010 16:03:41 -0000

I would love to see the Royals spend some real money on this and solve their depth problem in the middle infield.

Seriously, an argument can be made that Moore has replenished the system in most areas, with the possible exception of middle infield prospects. Colon was not all that impressive (although he should be given a pass perhaps, for being his first season of pro ball), and as much as I like Giavatella, there are concerns about his glove being a liability at 2B. Toss in the uncertainty about Bianchi's ability to stay healthy, and one could argue that we don't have ideal minor league depth in the middle infield.

Now, I don't know much about Noshioka (other than the short blurb in ESPN), and I certainly understand the difficulty in translating Japanese league stats to MLB. All that being said, would this be a good gamble for the Royals? Would Glass even have the stones to compete for him?

A simplistic look at where Dayton Moore has taken the Royals pitching staff

loyal2sdad — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 17:25:44 -0000

I know ERA isn't exactly the best measuring stick, but for simplicity's sake, look at these charts of the Royals and the AL's ERA and ERA plus since 2005, and then try to tell me why this isn't one of the most depressing Royal seasons in a long time:

Overall Team Pitching (KC ERA, AL ERA, Royals ERA+)

2005: 5.49, 4.36, 74

2006: 5.65, 4.56, 76

2007: 4.48, 4.51, 101

2008: 4.48, 4.35, 97

2009: 4.83, 4.45, 91

2010: 5.09, 4.16, 78

Now, the same chart, for starting pitching only:

2005: 6.00, 4.56, 68

2006: 5.85, 4.75, 77

2007: 4.88, 4.63, 95

2008: 4.62, 4.50, 97

2009: 4.73, 4.63, 98

2010: 5.34, 4.27, 75

Conclusion:

Moore did what any competent GM did when he first arrived, in that he was able to jettison the below-replacement-level starters (for the most part) and restore the pitching to something less than horrendous; however, in 2010 the staff essentially returned to the darkest days in team history for pitching - 2005 and 2006, right before he arrived.

What are we to make of this? Well, for one, if the next crop of arms, legitimately viewed as excellent by most prospect experts, does not make the anticipated impact, Moore should be fired. Even then, to me, this still raises a lot of questions about the competency of Moore to assemble and supplement parts to adequately replace existing black holes on the staff, and one could also argue, perhaps, that this should be reflected on Bob McClure to at least some extent. The thing I keep coming back to - Moore's stated goal to win with pitching and defense, and his mantra that pitching is the currency of baseball.

Nothing new here, I know - but sometimes looking at a chart of the "big picture" helps me understand where the organization has been, and where it needs to go.

Royals HRs vs LH pitchers

loyal2sdad — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 16:08:24 -0000

Let's get this out of the way first:

I'm not sure what this means, and I do realize most opposing pitchers are right handed. Still, these are very bizzare results for 2010

Let's get this out of the way first:

I'm not sure what this means, and I do realize most opposing pitchers are right handed. Still, these are very bizzare results for 2010

Can you guess which Royals have hit the most HRs vs LH pitchers this season?

1) Betemit 4

2) Maier 3

T 3) DeJesus, Betancourt, Bloomquist 2 each

T6) Guillen, Butler, Callaspo, Gordon 1 each

Again, no idea what this means, other than our main RH power bats (Butler and Guillen) for some reason or another did not provide much power vs lefties.

A bold idea to really jumpstart the Royals rebuild

loyal2sdad — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 17:21:42 -0000

I've been thinking of this for a while - there are only 3 assets the Royals can really trade that will actually provide the type of prospect haul to substantially increase the odds that the current bumper crop growing in the Royals minors will, after being supplemented by these trades, be so overwhelming that they could possibly render Moore's poor ML evaluations moot. Here we go:

Step 1: Greinke, Soria, Butler are the 3 assets. Keep Greinke and Soria, trade Butler. Butler should produce a nice haul of 3 or 4 prospects, with at least 1 (if not 2) Grade A or A-

Step 2: Bring Kila up to play 1B for the rest of 2010 and all of 2011. After he rakes, trade him for a similar haul of 3 or 4 prospects. By this time, Hosmer will be ready for 1B (2012)

Step 3: Use some of the savings from Butler's arb year savings to extend Greinke for another 2-3 years (thru 2014 or 2015)

With the wave of pitching prospects, all we need is for one of them to turn into another #1 like Greinke, then you have the 1-2 pitching punch that seems to characterize championship clubs. The rest of the rotation could easily be well above the rest of baseball's 3 thru 5 guys. Soria still manning the closer role. Offense led by Moose and Hosmer, with Myers somewhere in the lineup, Colon and Giavatella revamping the MI.

It is painful to say trade Butler - but Moore needs to do something ballsy. Hosmer looks like a LH version of Butler, but with better plate discipline and much better athleticism. Easily could project to be a better player than Butler (and I LIKE Butler...)

Anybody watch "The Club"? Comments?

loyal2sdad — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 20:06:17 -0000

MLB is running a new 6 part show in the mold of NFL Hard Knocks. This one follows the White Sox. I watched the first episode last night - thought they went thru ST and the beginning of the season sorta fast. I think this sort of show has huge potential - but perhaps this version somewhat lacked the polish typical of the "Hard Knocks" series I've seen. Wonder if that is due to MLB having more limited footage available to edit, or the baseball season being so long, it makes it difficult to see the forest for the trees when editing?

Your thoughts?

2010 Team Mantra: We're gonna win with pitching and defense

loyal2sdad — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 20:03:48 -0000

Heh, it's never too early to post (and overreact) to what is (so far) a disturbing trend, even if the trend could easily be heavily skewed by small sample size.

Never-the-less, I want to look at some data periodically thru the year, to see if Moore can even deliver on his paper thin, ill-conceived, and poorly executed Process®

Heh, it's never too early to post (and overreact) to what is (so far) a disturbing trend, even if the trend could easily be heavily skewed by small sample size.

Never-the-less, I want to look at some data periodically thru the year, to see if Moore can even deliver on his paper thin, ill-conceived, and poorly executed Process®

Let's look at the first component - pitching. Thru 13 games, Royals are last in AL in ERA, and by a LOT. ERA is a full run and three-quarters higher than league avg.

Let's look at the second component - defense. Arguably, a quick and dirty way exists to evaluate a team's defense as a whole - DER. DER is a measure of what percentage of balls put in play against a team are turned into outs. Think of it as reverse BABIP, if you will. First, let's see where Mr Moore is coming from:

2005 : KC DER was .667, which ranked 30th in MLB

2006: .676, 27th

2007: .684, 21st

2008: .690, 16th (this passes for the halcyon days of defense in Moore's world, apparently)

2009: .675, 30th

So, how has the major revamping of the team's defense that was the cornerstone of last offseason's plan gone to date, you ask?

2010 (granted, only 13 games): .671, 26th

Sigh.

George Brett's incomplete assessment of the 70s and 80s Royals

loyal2sdad — Thu, 08 Apr 2010 14:28:10 -0000

"...We never led the league in home runs,..."

Brett, commenting on how his Royals of the 70s and 80s won with speed, defense, doubles, triples, stolen bases, and fundamentals.

"...We never led the league in home runs,..."

Brett, commenting on how his Royals of the 70s and 80s won with speed, defense, doubles, triples, stolen bases, and fundamentals.

I wish the Star would publish some facts when someone makes a broad statement that is not entirely truthful. Let me try to help. Here are the HR hit and HR allowed stats for the Royals playoff teams of the 70s and 80s (I'm excluding 81 because of the bizzare playoff format):

1976: hit 65 (11th of 12 teams); allowed 83 (3rd/12)

1977: 146 (6th of 14); 110 (1st/14)

1978: 98 (11th); 108 (5th)

1980: 115 (9th); 129 (5th)

1984: 117 (12th); 136 (3rd)

1985: 154 (8th); 103 (1st)

So, saying that homeruns were unimportant to winning back then is distorting the facts somewhat, IMHO. I prefer to look at the HR differential, because PREVENTING homeruns is just as important as hitting them. Basically, the team did manage to win in 76,78,80, and 84, despite having slightly negative net homeruns. Two of the best Royals teams; however, had LARGE positive net homeruns. The 77 squad, which undoubtably was the best in Royals history, was +36. The 85 squad, which won it all, was +51.

So, George, if you insist on spouting the company line (we can't afford power, therefore, we will win with athleticism, speed, defense, and pitching), don't forget to point out that those winning teams from the 70s and 80s never ranked lower than 5th in the league in Hrs allowed.

A quote from John Foster Dulles

loyal2sdad — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 22:37:51 -0000

"The measure of success is not whether you have a tough problem to deal with, but whether it's the same problem you had last year"

The Royals, on the day GMDM assumed his duties, had the following problems to deal with:

Shorstop unable to hit at an acceptable level.

Lack of sufficient power production in the corner outfield, corner infield, and DH spots.

Inadequate pitching - both starters and relievers.

Lack of outfield defense sufficient to cover the demands of a large home ballpark.

Four years later, stop and ask yourself which of these problems GMDM has solved.

By my count, I can give him credit for improving the pitching. He gets credit for Meche, and for Soria, which might be the best thing he has done for the Major League roster to date.

Attempts to address the corners/DH power production have been fruitless. Guillen was an absolute disaster. Butler and Gordon help - but those finds belong to Baird.

Attempts to address the shortstop situation have been laughably bad. Tony Pena Jr., followed by Yuniesky Betancourt? Horrendous.

Attempts to address the outfield defense have been abysmal as well. So far, Moore has obtained Gathright, Podsednik, Freel, and the craptastic Anderson brothers, among others.

What could Moore have tried differently in these areas? Well, given the budget constraints and the pathetic state of the system he inherited, I don't think he could have been expected to fix all of these woes; however, he certainly could have given a look-see to Kila to see if perhaps his scouts were wrong. He certainly could have traded some of his assets, such as DDJ or Soria, to potentially solve several of these problems in the future.

Sorry for rehashing the GMDM past - just saw that quote, and thought it was REALLY an appropriate one to contemplate when evaluating the state of our beloved franchise.

Happy 24th Anniversary, Royals

loyal2sdad — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 15:02:45 -0000

It was 24 years ago tonight that the Royals vanquished the hated Cards in Game 7 of the World Series. For just one day, I'm choosing to forget all the problems with the current regime and take some time to remember how awesome that year was. Here's hoping history repeats itself sometime soon - at least once more before I die.

So let me get this straight

loyal2sdad — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 20:21:23 -0000

Bob Dutton, commonly believed to be a lacky for the Royals, cited driveline mechanic's article on catcher defense in his Royals article in the Star today. Basically, he was using that source as a reason why the Royals were looking to make changes at the catcher position this offseason.

So, let me get this straight:

Advanced defensive metrics are USELESS when trying to evaluate a shortstop you traded too much for to acquire.

Advanced defensive metrics are USEFUL when trying to justify a potential move you have already decided is needed in the offseason.

Thanks, Bob, for clearing that up for us. Granted, these two positions SEEM diametrically opposed to each other - but obviously that's my fault, as I can't be educated, don't trust the process, and am an impatient product of a "want it now" society.

So, let me get this straight:

Advanced defensive metrics are USELESS when trying to evaluate a shortstop you traded too much for to acquire.

Advanced defensive metrics are USEFUL when trying to justify a potential move you have already decided is needed in the offseason.

Here's something odd: Billy Butler's Mystery Pitching Performance

loyal2sdad — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 19:33:24 -0000

I recently was browsing thru Billy Butler's minor league stats on baseball-reference.com and noticed that Butler has 4.1 innings of pitching (1 game) on his resume from 2004 in rookie league ball. I thought that was very odd, for many reasons, not the least of which was it obviously not a "mop up" in a blowout, since he allegedly faced 25 batters. I then did some research, and found that Billy Buckner was on the same team that year, and thought to myself - well, that's an easy explanation: the boxscore simply was misrecorded or something. In addition, I really doubt the Royals would have approved of using a #1 draft pick in an emergency "mop up in a blowout" role in the first place - surely that job would fall to a lesser talent, right? Also have never heard anyone mention this before - and as much as we all followed Billy's progress, surely somebody would have asked if it were true, right?

Anyway, I emailed baseball-reference and asked about it; got a response today in which they said they think it is true, because they cross referenced with several other sources, including Baseball Cube, Baseball Almanac, etc.), and claim that all of these sources they cross referenced do not "work from the same dataset", in their words.

Doesn't sound like very stellar research on their part at all, IMHO. I assume they all get their info from some official boxscore or something, and most likely said boxscore is the source of this error in the first place.

Anyway, I'd thought I'd ask the people who know the Royals the best (RR community): Has anybody ever heard of Butler pitching a game in the minors? Does it seem as unlikely to you as it does to me?

Rumor heard around the K

loyal2sdad — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 14:58:05 -0000

Talking to a season ticket holder Tuesday night; a guy who knows some of the front office personnel, supposedly. I think he knows some of the lower level guys, not the top-rung people, but still, some of the things he has told me the club was toying with doing in the past actually ended up playing out eventually.

If the Royals were able to get rid of Guillen, they would consider moving Callaspo to 3B, Gordon to 1B, and Butler to DH, with Aviles getting a shot at winning the 2B job next year, or acquiring a 2B and using Aviles as MI utility man. There is some thought in the organization that Callaspo's defensive "abilities" play out much better at 3B than 2B, because while his range is limited, he has quick reflexes and a strong arm ( much stronger than needed at 2B).

Now, I have no idea if this guy is accurate this time - but at least this makes some sense. It would strenghten the team defensively in several positions, while having the added benefit of not losing the offensive value of Callaspo's bat (800 OPS at 3B is acceptable). Assuming Aviles this season is irrelevant, since he was trying to hit with basically ONE ARM all year, and it is not inconceivable that he would be more than adequate offensively for 2B. I think we can all agree that he would be adequate defensively there, and a significant upgrade from Callaspo defensively.

The key to the offseason is to get rid of Guillen, somehow, someway. The Cubs are desperate to get rid of Bradley. Despite whatever issues he might bring, he is a SIGNIFICANT upgrade talent-wise over Guillen. Would love to see Moore pull that off, somehow.

Can U stand reading another post on Butler?

loyal2sdad — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 20:21:25 -0000

I noticed that Butler now has 274 total bases on the season, giving him an outside shot at the coveted 300 TB figure.

This has been accomplished only 18 times in team history, by a total of only 10 players:

Brett 4 times

Beltran 3

Dye, McRae, Sweeney 2 times each

Damon, Cowens, Tartabull, Mayberry, Seitzer once each

Obviously, that reads like a who's who of Royals hitters. Would be great to see Billy stay hot enough to pick up 26 more TBs in the last 12 games. Odds are against that, as his pace is only for about 296.

Didn't bother to research the ages of any of these when accomplished - but I'll bet only two or three (at most) were able to do it at age 23 or less.

I noticed that Butler now has 274 total bases on the season, giving him an outside shot at the coveted 300 TB figure.

This has been accomplished only 18 times in team history, by a total of only 10 players:

Brett 4 times

Beltran 3

Dye, McRae, Sweeney 2 times each

Damon, Cowens, Tartabull, Mayberry, Seitzer once each

Didn't bother to research the ages of any of these when accomplished - but I'll bet only two or three (at most) were able to do it at age 23 or less.

Yet another post on the AL Cy Young Race

loyal2sdad — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 15:32:22 -0000

Let's look at this again. In my mind, there are 3 primary competitors (not counting Rivera):

Sabathia, Verlander, Hernandez.

Assuming Greinke keeps his ERA around 2.25, and gets his win total to, say 16-8 or even 16-9, here's what we need to root for:

Sabathia currently has 17 wins, but, AND THIS IS CRUCIAL, most likely has only 3 starts left. (19th, 24th, 29th, then they would likely skip him the last weekend so he could start the playoff opener). If he falls short of the magical 20 win figure, then Greinke could beat him out.

Verlander currently has 16 wins, but like Sabathia, most likely has only 3 starts left, IF, AND THIS IS A BIG IF, Detroit can clinch it before the last weekend. (Verlander pitches on the 19th, 24th, 29th, then skipped on the weekend so he could open the playoffs). Bottom line - no way Verlander gets to 20 wins.

King Felix - currently has 15 wins, and like Greinke will only get 4 more starts. (18th, 23rd, 28th, Oct 3rd). Can't get to 20 wins either, but we really need him to stay only 1 or 2 wins ahead of Greinke, and for Zack to maintain his current ERA gap over Hernandez of about a third of a run or so.

Looking at the schedule, it may come down to THE ROYALS HITTERS, who may need to get Sabathia a ND or a loss in his last start, which looks like it will be against KC.

You will note I'm discounting the voters doing something idiotic like give it to Rivera as some sort of career achievement award. I may be making a big mistake discounting this - but I'm hopeful the voters are sufficiently more informed now than they have been in the past.

Let's look at this again. In my mind, there are 3 primary competitors (not counting Rivera):

Sabathia, Verlander, Hernandez.

Assuming Greinke keeps his ERA around 2.25, and gets his win total to, say 16-8 or even 16-9, here's what we need to root for:

Looking at the schedule, it may come down to THE ROYALS HITTERS, who may need to get Sabathia a ND or a loss in his last start, which looks like it will be against KC.

Fantasy Playoff Advise Needed

loyal2sdad — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 02:31:37 -0000

I'm about to start the semifinals of a fantasy league playoffs; league is points based. Playoff period is 2 weeks, but can change lineup after the 1st week. Anyway, starting 5 pitchers, and I'm actually thinking about benching Greinke due to the vagueness of Hillman saying they are gonna give him an extra day or two or rest this week. My options to replace him would be Mark Buehrle or Max Scherzer. Key info is that both Buehrle and Scherzer start tomorrow, meaning they will get 2 starts instead of 1. The league gives +10 for a win, <5> for a loss. There is also 1 point for each out, 1 for each K, <1> for each hit or BB, and <3> for each ER.

Am I nuts? How can I bench the best pitcher in baseball? I'm frustrated because I can't find confirmation ANYWHERE on when Zack will actually make his next start. (I could KILL Hillman for leaving him in for 125 pitches last night for no damn apparent reason)

Royals depressing stat of the day

loyal2sdad — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 15:38:04 -0000

I used to send occasional emails to a fellow peanut vendor, with a tidbit demonstrating how bad things have become. Called it "Royals depressing stat of the day" Thought it would be fun here too.

09 Yankees now have 7 players with 20+ Hrs this season. Jeter is at 17, so this may or may not go to 8 players. Assuming Olivo, Jacobs, Butler all stay below 20, and Jeter does make it to 20, then:

09 Yankees would have more guys with 20+ Hrs than the Royals had in the last EIGHT years combined!

Here are the gory details:

09 Royals: none

08: Guillen 20

07: None (Buck led with 18)

06: None (Teahen led with 18)

05: Sweeney 21

04: Sweeney 22

03: Beltran 26

02: Beltran 29, Ibanez 24, Sweeney 24

I used to send occasional emails to a fellow peanut vendor, with a tidbit demonstrating how bad things have become. Called it "Royals depressing stat of the day" Thought it would be fun here too.

09 Yankees now have 7 players with 20+ Hrs this season. Jeter is at 17, so this may or may not go to 8 players. Assuming Olivo, Jacobs, Butler all stay below 20, and Jeter does make it to 20, then:

09 Yankees would have more guys with 20+ Hrs than the Royals had in the last EIGHT years combined!

Here are the gory details:

09 Royals: none

08: Guillen 20

07: None (Buck led with 18)

06: None (Teahen led with 18)

05: Sweeney 21

04: Sweeney 22

03: Beltran 26

02: Beltran 29, Ibanez 24, Sweeney 24

I'm not giving up on a Greinke Cy Young

loyal2sdad — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 15:24:45 -0000

With recent poor outings from Halladay & Beckett, not to mention a mediocre loss by King Felix and a mediocre win by Verlander last night, I still think the AL Cy Young race is wide open, and that with a strong finish, Greinke could still pull it out. Let's look at the other candidates:

Good pitchers on playoff teams: I'm lumping Sabathia, Verlander, and Beckett in this group. All will have significantly better W-L record than Greinke - but all currently have an ERA of a nearly a full run (or more, in some cases) higher than Zack. Best hope is that nobody in this group reaches the magical 20 win figure. Not entirely impossible, as 15 is the most anybody has right now and the season is a bit more than three-fourths complete. In addition, it looks like for Sabathia that the Yanks will clinch early, and they may wish to have him skip a start at the end of the year.

Great pitchers on bad teams: This is Hernandez and Halliday - and if I were voting, these two would be the main contenders along with Greinke. Hernandez is 12-5, ERA is only three-tenths higher than Zack. Greinke probably needs to close the gap on the W-L record here; increasing his ERA lead to a half-run wouldn't hurt either. Holliday's ERA is now over 3; however, I'd bet he gets it under 3 again before the year ends. Don't underestimate that, as there probably is a huge subconcious difference to an uninformed voter between say, a 3.10 and a 2.95 ERA, as illogical as that may sound.

Bottom line - what does Zack have to do in his remaining 8 starts to get what he deserves? My best guess is he needs to win minimum of 6 of these, and lose no more than 1 more. That would have him finish at 17-9 or 18-9. Also think he needs to win the ERA title by at least three-quarters of a run over the Sabathia, Verlander, and Beckett trio. Probably needs to stay three-tenths or more ahead of King Felix and Halliday. Strikeouts, CG, and shutout categories are all good for Zack already - adding another shutout wouldn't hurt, and merely maintaining his current rank in Ks (2nd) would probably suffice.

So, what are the odds? Just a guess, but I think he has about a 15% chance at this point of all this happening. Maybe I'm just an optimist when it comes to Zack - what do you all think his chances are?

More positives on Butler

loyal2sdad — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 17:21:45 -0000

Decided to run stats on AL players since the All-Star break. Using minimum of 125 PAs since the All-Star break (approximating "qualified" status), Billy's 950 OPS since the break ranks 9th in the American League.

Sure, this is a small sample size - but if he has indeed "turned the corner" like it seems he may have, it sure looks like we have found a legit middle of the order hitter. (That leaves us 2 middle of the order hitters short, as I think you need to have studs at 3,4, and 5 to actually have an above avg offense)

Will be interesting to see how he finishes out this season.

Sorry for constantly posting about Billy - I'm about as obsessed with his talent as I was a couple of years ago posting about Greinke's talent. Heh - I guess that's not such a bad thing! Greinke ended up justifying my foaming at the mouth over him; maybe Butler will do the same.

Will be interesting to see how he finishes out this season.

We need some levity

loyal2sdad — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 05:05:48 -0000

OK, by now, everyone is pretty much burned out for this horrible season. Time for some laughs, in the form of a fun poll. I've heard people lament the dearth of good nicknames in baseball today - but the awesome posters of RR have come up with plenty of creative, derisive nicknames for the "talent" put on the field by our beloved Royals. Please vote for your favorite. (I'd love to give credit to whichever poster came up with these first, but I'm too lazy to research them. Only one I remember was that my daughter came up with the Ponson moniker, I believe. If I left out any good ones, I apologize - these four seem to be my favorites.

Poll

What is your favorite derisive Royals nickname coined on Royals Review this year? (I left out some goodnatured nicknames for players who don't actually suck, such as Butlerbean and Baconator for Billy Butler)

Josh Gathwhite

21 votes

Sidney Pontoon

8 votes

Kyle Farnsworthless

10 votes

Yuniesky Betancorpse

16 votes

55 votes | Poll has closed

Guess this player

loyal2sdad — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 14:16:42 -0000

This player has more extra base hits this season than Michael Young, Ibanez, Hawpe, Damon, Cano, Zimmerman, Branyan, D Lee, Bay, Tulowitzki, Kinsler, Youkilis, J Upton, C Lee, Miguel Cabrera, Utley, Mauer, Kemp, and Zobrist, among others.

He has as may extra base hits as Sandoval, Adrian Gonzalez, and Hanley Ramirez.

He is within 6 extra base hits or fewer of Fielder, Reynolds, Lind, Howard, Braun, Ethier, Morneau, K Morales, Dunn, and Longoria.

Of course, he is still quite a bit behind Teixeira (8 behind) and Pujols (15 behind)

He is ONLY 23 years old!

I'm sure everyone has guessed by now that I speak of Billy Butler. There are caveats here - he does play 1B, where this sort of production is expected, and he does need to convert some of his doubles to homeruns to truly match some of the guys listed above - but let me repeat something: HE'S TWENTY-THREE! It is probably gonna happen!

Rany had a great post today, in which he pointed out that amid a season that has been largely disastrous, two of the former 3 first round draft picks that we are counting on to be the cornerstones of the future have made the leap and done exactly that - set the stage for being the cornerstones we need going forward.

We all get caught up in the day to day disasters of this franchise, and (rightfully) are concerned with the abilities of the GM and the player development system, but having two probable stars going forward, under team control for 3 and 4 years respectively, is actually a good start towards building a contender. At least this season hasn't been a total waste, at least in this respect.

He has as may extra base hits as Sandoval, Adrian Gonzalez, and Hanley Ramirez.

He is within 6 extra base hits or fewer of Fielder, Reynolds, Lind, Howard, Braun, Ethier, Morneau, K Morales, Dunn, and Longoria.

Of course, he is still quite a bit behind Teixeira (8 behind) and Pujols (15 behind)

He is ONLY 23 years old!

More on Greinke run support

loyal2sdad — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 15:47:04 -0000

Here is a breakdown of Greinke's run support so far in 2009:

Royals have scored 4+ runs in only 7 of his 21 starts. He is 5-1 with 1 ND in that span (7 IP 3 ER in the ND). Only loss was the Arizona game (6.2 IP 4 ER; was undermined by shitty defense in that one)

Royals have scored 3 or less an incredible 14 times in his 21 starts. Despite that, Greinke is 5-5 in those games, and the bullpen contributed 4 Blown Saves in the other 4 games. This means that Greinke HAD HIS TEAM IN POSITION TO WIN 9 out of 14 times despite the team scoring 3 or less runs for him. Take a second and reread that. If that doesn't scream Cy Young winner, nothing does.

Royals scored a grand total of 9 runs in his 6 losses. (5 in one game, 3 in another)

Looking back at his game by game result, I'm going to guestimate what he would be with average run support and average bullpen support.

Here are the results I am "changing":

5/9 vs LA: 8 IP 1 ER change from a L to a W (royals were shutout)

7/3 vs CWS: 6 IP 2 ER change from a L to a ND (royals were shutout, but Zack also allowed 2 more UER)

7/8 @ DET: 6 IP 3 ER change from a L to a ND (royals scored only 1 run)

7/24 TEX: 7 IP 1 ER change from a L to a W (royals shutout)

5/21; 6/11; 7/18; 7/29: change these 4 NDs to 3 Ws and a ND. These were the 4 blown save games. Greinke had a quality start in every one of these. (6 IP 2 ER twice, 7 IP 1 ER once, and 7.1 IP 3 ER once - with 2 of those runs scoring after he left the game). Notice I am allowing for 1 blown save, as being typical.

That leaves us with a 15-2 record, with 4 NDs - a much more representative record for a guy with an ERA+ still over 200 for the season.

If this continues and the voters ignore it when doling out the Cy Young, it will be a shame. The voters seemed to be more enlightened in recent years than they were 15 or 20 years ago, but you still have to worry about some "old school" guys who will use his W-L record to justify voting for somebody less deserving on a winning team.

Here is a breakdown of Greinke's run support so far in 2009:

Royals scored a grand total of 9 runs in his 6 losses. (5 in one game, 3 in another)

Looking back at his game by game result, I'm going to guestimate what he would be with average run support and average bullpen support.

Here are the results I am "changing":

5/9 vs LA: 8 IP 1 ER change from a L to a W (royals were shutout)

7/3 vs CWS: 6 IP 2 ER change from a L to a ND (royals were shutout, but Zack also allowed 2 more UER)

7/8 @ DET: 6 IP 3 ER change from a L to a ND (royals scored only 1 run)

7/24 TEX: 7 IP 1 ER change from a L to a W (royals shutout)

That leaves us with a 15-2 record, with 4 NDs - a much more representative record for a guy with an ERA+ still over 200 for the season.

Will Lubanski get a shot this season?

loyal2sdad — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 17:30:23 -0000

Chris Lubanski, who is still only 24, has recently begun a rehab from an injury. In limited # of games in Omaha this spring, he had seemingly improved his BB and K rates quite a bit from 2008 Omaha numbers. In addition, his SB ability seemed to be on the rebound, as he posted 6 SB with 1 CS in only a month or so of action.

I heard an interview on 610 with him a few weeks back, in which he credited hard work with a personal trainer in the off season for his speed somewhat coming back; in addition, some increased quickness defensively as well. Sorta sounded like going thru being exposed to the minor league draft and being undrafted served as a wakeup call of sorts to him.

Anyway, with the Guillen injury, I assume Teahen will get most RF starts; however, remember that Gordon will need to be sat every 3rd or 4th game the rest of the way, and that means RF will be open for auditions a reasonable amount of the time.

The Guillen injury is now revealed to be 6-8 weeks (let's hope it's the latter), so that more or less could be, for all intents and purposes, the end of his season. I know we all are looking for reasons to continue watching this year (aren't we every year?); personally I'd love to see the team call him up soon and take a look. Of course, because this is logical and we're talking about the Royals, I'm sure it won't happen. The scouts have probably already decided one way or the other.

Thoughts, anyone?

Special fanshot for GobbleforCyYoung

loyal2sdad — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 14:02:18 -0000

Just noticed in the Sunday game thread where you were getting beat up pretty bad for defending Jose Guillen's attempt to reach 3rd on a Jacobs single. Just wanted to post something about the true odds in that situation (or at least a good approximation of the true odds).

To recap, for those who missed it, Guillen was gunned down at 3rd with 1 out on a single by Jacobs. Considerable debate ensued, where Gobbleforcyyoung defended Guillen, followed by a few people ripping him for doing so.

I went to Baseball Prospectus and used the dandy Run Scoring Matrix to calculate this. Here is the relavent data for this situation:

Man on 1st and 2nd, 1out - run expectancy is 0.9132

Man on 1st and 3rd, 1 out - run expectancy is 1.17692

Man on 1st, 2 outs - run expectancy is 0.22588

Obviously, these 3 situations are if Jose holds, if he goes for 3rd and makes it, and if he goes for 3rd and is out, respectively.

The question is, in my mind, is what % of the time does he have to be successful for it to be a good gamble? In other words, what is the "breakeven" % for trying for 3rd in this situation?

Formula:

(1.17692-0.9132) / (1.17692-0.22588)

= 0.26372 / 0.95104

=0.27730

In other words, Jose needs to make it 72.27% of the time in order to "break even"

Proving the math, (1.17692 * .7227) + (0.22588 * .2773) = 0.9132 runs,

AND (0.9132 * 1.0000) = 0.9132 runs

SOOOOOO,

the debate should have been along the lines of, "that's a good gamble by Jose/windmill Dave Owen, as long as there was about a 73% chance of him making it to 3rd safely", or "that was a bad gamble by Jose/windmill Dave Owen, there was less than a 72% chance of him making it".

Of course, no one knows these odds off the top of their head, but I think if everybody took a second and guessed it, they probably could have come reasonably close.

To conclude, I think you and your detractors were arguing about what the % was on this particular play - and that can be pretty damn hard for us to know as fans. The fact that the Pirates made it look riduculously easy sorta (perhaps?) made it appear that the % was far below 73%, thus making your detractor's argument appear to be an easy one. I just think if every one involved had argued in this manner, rather than the manner which was used, would have resulted in a more enjoyable game thread debate.

Not trying to stir up any shit, or get on anyone at all - the situation was interesting, and I was interested enough to want to know exactly what the odds were on this play.

Another interesting aspect of this, to me, is that one would hope to have a team full of intelligent players, who instinctually know the odds in their heads, and thus know when and why to gamble, even if they don't know the odds per se. This sorta thing can be quantified, to some extent, in baserunning ratings, which I believe is yet another area in which the Royals are below average.

I went to Baseball Prospectus and used the dandy Run Scoring Matrix to calculate this. Here is the relavent data for this situation:

Man on 1st and 2nd, 1out - run expectancy is 0.9132

Man on 1st and 3rd, 1 out - run expectancy is 1.17692

Man on 1st, 2 outs - run expectancy is 0.22588

Obviously, these 3 situations are if Jose holds, if he goes for 3rd and makes it, and if he goes for 3rd and is out, respectively.

The question is, in my mind, is what % of the time does he have to be successful for it to be a good gamble? In other words, what is the "breakeven" % for trying for 3rd in this situation?

Formula:

(1.17692-0.9132) / (1.17692-0.22588)

= 0.26372 / 0.95104

=0.27730

In other words, Jose needs to make it 72.27% of the time in order to "break even"

Proving the math, (1.17692 * .7227) + (0.22588 * .2773) = 0.9132 runs,

AND (0.9132 * 1.0000) = 0.9132 runs

SOOOOOO,

Of course, no one knows these odds off the top of their head, but I think if everybody took a second and guessed it, they probably could have come reasonably close.

Not trying to stir up any shit, or get on anyone at all - the situation was interesting, and I was interested enough to want to know exactly what the odds were on this play.

We're playing HTN, so here's a sad tale of 3 prospects

loyal2sdad — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 21:35:27 -0000

Here are three stat lines from the 2006 minor league AA season, all playing in the same league, and all basically playing a full season:

Player A: 23 yrs old, put up a 283/357/533 line with 60 BB and 109 K

Player B: 22 yrs old, put up a 325/427/588 line with 72 BB and 113 K

Player C: 20 yrs old, put up a 331/388/499 line with 41 BB and 67 K

Player A has gone on to post a combined OPS+ of 122 during 2007-09 in the majors

Player B has gone on to post a combined OPS+ of 97 during 2007-09 in the majors

Player C has gone on to post a combined OPS+ of 100 during 2007-09 in the majors

I'm sure the astute among you have already identified the above players - Hunter Pence is "A", Alex Gordon is "B", and Billy Butler is "C". These 3 prospects were definitely among the top in their league in 06, if not the best 3 prospects, period. Despite the odds in the Royals favor, we managed to miss on what appears to be the superior player by far among the three. Of course, this could end up changing - especially since Butler has a significant age advantage over the other two - but for now, if you had to bet which would have the better career, you'ld have to go with Pence, wouldn't you?

Turning back the clock to the winter of 2006, I'd venture to guess that most GMs would not have traded either Butler or Gordon for Pence even up.

Is this just a case of "that's prospects for you", or just another indictment of the Royals organization's MASSIVE failure to develop prospects?

Feel free to discuss (or cry, if it helps)