SB Nation User Blog: madvillian

Williams stresses patience and OBP, not speed as requisite for leadoff.

madvillian — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 02:46:35 -0000

Williams stresses patience and OBP, not speed as requisite for leadoff.

Jerry Owens sighs.

The FA Scrap Heap: anything look good?

madvillian — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 17:00:22 -0000

Here are some projections and comments on the more plausible guys.

HITTERS:

ZIPS:

Frank Thomas : 260 / 362 / 402 in 340PA

Jim Edmonds: 243 / 334 / 425 in 320PA

Nomar Garciaparra 278 / 334 / 420 in 319PA

Ray Durham 235 / 326 / 357 in 381PA

Paul Lo Duca 261 / 318 / 337 in 280PA

PECOTA (weighted mean)

Ivan Rodriguez: 263 /301 / 364 for a 3.1 VORP

PITCHERS:

Pedro Martinez: 87IP, 95ERA+

Job Lieber: 63IP 4.86ERA

____________

I really don't think anyone outside of Pudge or Edmonds makes any sense. Pudge's value comes on handling the staff and defense, Edmonds is just better than Owens and probably Wise too. He'd replace one of them and split time with BA in CF.

Frank I'm mild on, but only if he accepted a limited roll and a limited paycheck. He can't play any thing in the field so the OBP would just be insurance for Thome. But it's worth taking the risk not to sign him, if Thome goes down then scoop him up. If he's already signed elswhere oh well hindsight is 20/20.

Durham, nice guy, nice career, but toast. He knows it too as he mulls retirement.

Pedro is washed up IMO and the projection confirms that. He'd be bad at the Cell and he rarely seems to make it past the 5th inning -- not a recipe for contributing. With the (so far) sunny timetables for Colon and Contreras, there is no reason to sign him.

PLAYER, POS Moises Alou, LF	AGE 42	TYPE B	TEAM NY Mets
Joe Beimel, RP	31	B	LA Dodgers
Gary Bennett, C	36	Free Agent	LA Dodgers
Ambiorix Burgos, RP	24	Free Agent	NY Mets
Paul Byrd, SP	38	B	Boston
Orlando Cabrera, SS	34	A	Chicago Sox
Juan Cruz, RP	30	A	Arizona
Jairo Cuevas, SP	25	Free Agent	Kansas City
Ray Durham, 2B	37	Free Agent	Milwaukee
Damion Easley, 2B	39	Free Agent	NY Mets

Jim Edmonds, CF	38	Free Agent	Chicago Cubs
Scott Elarton, SP	33	Free Agent	Cleveland
Keith Foulke, RP	36	Free Agent	Oakland
Nomar Garciaparra, SS	35	Free Agent	LA Dodgers
Luis Gonzalez, LF	41	Free Agent (B)	Florida
Mark Grudzielanek, 2B	38	B	Kansas City
Orlando Hernandez, SP	39	Free Agent	NY Mets
Chuck James, SP	27	Free Agent	Atlanta
Jon Lieber, RP	38	Free Agent	Chicago Cubs
Paul Lo Duca, C	36	B	Florida

Aquilino Lopez, RP	33	Free Agent	Detroit
Pedro Martinez, SP	37	Free Agent	NY Mets
Mark Mulder, SP	31	Free Agent	St. Louis
Will Ohman, RP	31	Free Agent	Atlanta
Jay Payton, LF	36	Free Agent	Baltimore
Sidney Ponson, SP	32	Free Agent	NY Yankees
Manny Ramirez, LF	36	A	LA Dodgers
Dennys Reyes, RP	31	B	Minnesota
Ricardo Rincon, RP	38	Free Agent	NY Mets
Ivan Rodriguez, C	37	B	NY Yankees

Kenny Rogers, SP	44	Free Agent	Detroit
Curt Schilling, SP	42	Free Agent	Boston
Rudy Seanez, RP	40	Free Agent	Philadelphia
Ben Sheets, SP	30	A	Milwaukee
Julian Tavarez, RP	35	Free Agent	Atlanta
Frank Thomas, DH	40	B	Oakland
Mike Timlin, RP	42	Free Agent	Boston
Ron Villone, RP	39	Free Agent	St. Louis
Matt Wise, RP	33	Free Agent	NY Mets

"McCarthy isn't the first injured pitcher Kenny Williams has traded who was already damaged goods...

madvillian — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 02:57:56 -0000

"McCarthy isn't the first injured pitcher Kenny Williams has traded who was already damaged goods at the time of the trade."

[edited for clarity]

-Keith Law (subtle guy that Keith)

http://www.bbtia.com/home/2009/2/10/keith-law-prospect-qa.html

Sox 2009 Marcel Projections

madvillian — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 00:30:44 -0000

So I ran the Marcel projections through some Access database queries and pulled out the Sox' 2009 hitter projections (will be doing pitchers in a bit) -- but this should tide you over for awhile.

Thinks Q was a fluke but is kind to Getz and Thome. No Fields listed.

Enjoy.

Projections

Uribe still sucks. Imagine that. Griffey still salvageable for a team looking for a DH, although only if he realizes that it will probably involve no more than a 1 year deal.

"Jermaine is as hot as doughnut grease right now," Nick Swisher said. "He's doing his thing, and...

madvillian — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 16:08:31 -0000

"Jermaine is as hot as doughnut grease right now," Nick Swisher said. "He's doing his thing, and we're just trying to get as many guys on for him as we can. Overall, this was a good series for us. We've got a long way to go."

What the Record Says They Are

madvillian — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 02:39:59 -0000

Punchless Paul Konerko was 0-4 with four left on. Clueless Ozzie Guillen inserted a bad reliever into a a high leverage situation. Butcher Josh Fields booted a ball that led to a run for the opposition.

The Sox were down a run heading into the 9th and self-inclicted blunders were looming large; no doubt so predictable to even the most casual fan that half of Chicago talk radio and the Sox blogosphere lined up ready to point fingers.

It was going to be one of those losses. No depth, a crazy manager, and an overpaid and washed up bum at 1B: this team ain’t going nowhere.

But a seeing eye single from Quentin, a massive opposite field HR from Dye, and a solid 9th from a healthy looking Jenks (96mph on the heater) pulled victory from the jaws of defeat.

And that -- contributions from the good players -- more than bad managing decisions, more than bad production from 1B and below average defense from 3B, is what makes this White Sox team good. They have the horses to get around mistakes. It was on evidence in Texas and again tonight. It’s been on evidence all season really, a season now over 62% over.

If you add up the good and bad on this Sox team so far, in some crazy perfect equation of baseball prowess, it probably would say about 88-94 wins, given some leeway for luck and injuries along the way. There are just more good things than bad things. The run differential (+ 84), OPS+ (107), and ERA+ (117) – indicate such.

At this point, guys like Danks and Quentin and Ramirez aren’t flukes – they are good players. There is no reason to believe they will dramatically fall off. The Sox have been buoyed mightily by surprises, and the production from those guys should continue to excel given the evidence accumulated.

_____________________________________________

BP had the Sox at 72% odds to make the playoffs entering tonight. The chances had to rise a bit with the lead in the division now extended to 3.5 over the Twins and 6.5 over the Tigers.

As has been duly noted many times, the Sox are not a deep team. An injury to a big run producer or starter would be devastating, and might tip things in the favor of the Twins or Tigers.

But the hypothetical is only hypothetically speaking , (As a certain slugging LF from Stanford might say.), and until then it’s best to take things at face value over the long term.

This team is better than most. Take it for what it is.

Fire Joe Cowley -- or -- Punch Cowley

madvillian — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 05:28:33 -0000

If you want an example of why the fishwraps are running for their lives, Cowley is a great example. Fattened by years of monopolistic dispersion of news, the Sun Times has been convinced that Cowley is writer worthy of our attention. Well, so much for all that.

...there stood pitcher Jose Contreras, hours before his start Tuesday in the White Sox' 13-inning, 8-7 victory over the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium, looking like he had just received a thunderous body blow and there wasn't enough air in the room for him to take a breath. The right-hander had just been told that, to make room for first baseman Paul Konerko's return from his rehab assignment, the Sox had informed reserve infielder Pablo Ozuna earlier in the day at the team hotel that he was being designated for assignment.

Ignore the obvious non-sequitar that Jose a) had been informed of Ozuna's DFA just hours before the game, and b) that Cowley was there to witness said hypothetical moment. Ignore all that and focus on the rest:

[After the game] Contreras walked out of the clubhouse, obviously disturbed by the news.

He wasn't as upset as his manager.

''[Bleep] Jose Contreras,'' Guillen said. ''Nobody in this organization is more upset or sad than Ozzie Guillen. Nobody.

It's easy to see the Cowley is trying to form a narrative. What if Count was just walking off pissed because he gave it up to a shitty Royals team? It's obvious that he's creating the story and not reporting. He prodded Guillen about Contreras and Ozzie responded like Ozzie always does. Ozzie should have just said, "fuck Joe Cowley. Who is this guy, some Ozuna fanboy?" It's disengenous of Cowley to not print what the question was that he asked Guillen to prompt the response. I can just picture him prodding and prodding with his asinine line of questioning. Finally Ozzie flips and mission accomplished.

What is with Cowley? Does know anything about baseball? What has he done to earn his job? There are literally hundreds of bloggers who can both write more eloquently then he can while providing real insight about baseball. And that's why the Sun Times is doomed and the Internet continues to grow. It's the entitled opinion of the Sun Times and Crowley that has got them where they are today.

I've always wanted to say this: fuck'em.

Charting a Rising Missile

madvillian — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 03:03:23 -0000

I was perusing Fangraphs after the game today looking at they WPA graphs (Sox were at less than 2% after the top of the second) and one thing lead to another and I pulled up to Ramirez' graphs and stats. I was struck by how linear his gains have been since a rough first month.

Perhaps this guy really is improving every day.

via www.fangraphs.com

See the rest.

Some things still need improving, like patience, patience, patience. I don't get the feeling the Missile will ever be much of a walk taker, but if he can just improve a little bit he could be a 300/350/475 guy from SS -- and that would be awesome.

Sox at 79% odds for Playoffs at BP

madvillian — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 17:56:19 -0000

Sox at 79% odds for Playoffs at BP

And if you think they have been sort of lucky the PECOTA odds are at 71%!!

Holy shit batman!

What are we, the Royals?

madvillian — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 04:29:11 -0000

The White Sox aren't a great team, but they might be a good team. Beating what is certainly a bad team -- the Royals -- by a sound margin will help their case as Gavin Floyd and a home friendly homer binge helped the Sox win 9-5.

In an early turning point, Q's great strength helped him go oppo on a jam shot down the line after AJ had bled in a roller to right to put a man on with one out.. A a couple of Royal gaffes in the 2nd helped the Sox go up 6-0 on a single by Crede, a gift 2B (should have been caught by DeJesus ranging to his left) by Ramirez, and a homer by A.J.

The rest was all academic as Floyd threw strikes and featured a good enough breaking pitch to keep the Royals' AAAA offense down.

As for the struggling white guys, Kong and Thome go 0-7 with a walk. For the Ramirez people: A-Ram continues to hit the ball hard while showing no patience. Like a homeless man's Soriano.

Tonight was a game againt an inferior oponent. The Sox won: but questions remain about the offense going forward.