SB Nation User Blog: madvillian

Charting a Rising Missile

madvillian — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 03:03:23 -0000

I was perusing Fangraphs after the game today looking at they WPA graphs (Sox were at less than 2% after the top of the second) and one thing lead to another and I pulled up to Ramirez' graphs and stats. I was struck by how linear his gains have been since a rough first month.

Perhaps this guy really is improving every day.

via www.fangraphs.com

See the rest.

Some things still need improving, like patience, patience, patience. I don't get the feeling the Missile will ever be much of a walk taker, but if he can just improve a little bit he could be a 300/350/475 guy from SS -- and that would be awesome.

Sox at 79% odds for Playoffs at BP

madvillian — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 17:56:19 -0000

Sox at 79% odds for Playoffs at BP

And if you think they have been sort of lucky the PECOTA odds are at 71%!!

Holy shit batman!

What are we, the Royals?

madvillian — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 04:29:11 -0000

The White Sox aren't a great team, but they might be a good team. Beating what is certainly a bad team -- the Royals -- by a sound margin will help their case as Gavin Floyd and a home friendly homer binge helped the Sox win 9-5.

In an early turning point, Q's great strength helped him go oppo on a jam shot down the line after AJ had bled in a roller to right to put a man on with one out.. A a couple of Royal gaffes in the 2nd helped the Sox go up 6-0 on a single by Crede, a gift 2B (should have been caught by DeJesus ranging to his left) by Ramirez, and a homer by A.J.

The rest was all academic as Floyd threw strikes and featured a good enough breaking pitch to keep the Royals' AAAA offense down.

As for the struggling white guys, Kong and Thome go 0-7 with a walk. For the Ramirez people: A-Ram continues to hit the ball hard while showing no patience. Like a homeless man's Soriano.

Tonight was a game againt an inferior oponent. The Sox won: but questions remain about the offense going forward.

Billy Beane: "Frank was such a positive influence when he was here. The thing I like about having...

madvillian — Mon, 26 May 2008 15:26:20 -0000

Billy Beane: "Frank was such a positive influence when he was here. The thing I like about having Frank around the younger players is how he prepares himself. He prepares himself similar to how Barry Zito used to prepare himself to pitch in a game. That’s good for young guys to watch. And I have such a soft spot for Frank. He had such a great year (when he was here). And you can’t beat the price for a guy who brings all he does.

Q: "...I have had a tendency to get amped up...this year, I've kind of backed off and just said, ...

madvillian — Fri, 23 May 2008 04:38:41 -0000

Q: "...I have had a tendency to get amped up...this year, I've kind of backed off and just said, use the barrel, get a single and do anything you can to get the job done."

-- Quentin when asked about his success in key situations this season.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=280522104

An Open Letter to Carlos Quentin

madvillian — Fri, 09 May 2008 03:31:32 -0000

An Open Letter to Carlos Quentin

Surprisingly (for ESPN) level-headed yet excited analysis of Q in a "OMG this guy is good and the ladies love him" piece.

Ozzie: "He's (Quentin) always getting hit by a pitch at the right spot. I like it. This kid gives...

madvillian — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 01:07:42 -0000

Ozzie: "He's (Quentin) always getting hit by a pitch at the right spot. I like it. This kid gives you everything he has every at-bat. I haven't seen him waste one at-bat yet."

Ozzie Guillen on Q's timely HBPs.

MLB TV '08 Style: Gripes and Notes

madvillian — Fri, 04 Apr 2008 15:17:35 -0000

So I purchased my MLB.TV premium package the other night and I must say I'm pretty disappointed that they are still tied to Microsoft and their horribly clunky interfaces.

AND WHY IS IT STILL SO HARD FOR EXISTING CUSTOMERS TO START THE STREAMS! I mean, it's ridiculous that they devote this tiny little button "existing customers click here" that is buried at the bottom of the page.

One good thing they did this year is that you can actually check a box that says you don't want to be auto signed up month after month. Although it was so freaking audacious that you had to call to cancel in the past that this improvement just seems like throwing us all a tiny little bone after so much hassle in the past.

As to the actual streams themselves:

I have an HDTV and like to hookup my laptop to it to watch the games. So I really wanted to use the "next def" stream at 1.2Mps that they are hyping so much. Well, first they make me download some stupid "accelerator" that promises to make everything run really smoothly. And then I have to download this "Silverlight" garbage from MS just to view the stream.

After finally downloaded and installing all this I get the "next def" stream up and it is too choppy to even run on my Dell D600. I checked my bandwidth and I should have had plenty enough to stream it properly, it's just that MS' stream software is so horribly inefficient that you apparently need a supercomputer to run it properly. NM that using VLC Media Player I can full screen streaming video at near 1080i quality with no framerate problems.

So that's where I'm at right now. I'm really not sure I'm going to continue paying 20 dollars a month for a service that continues to treat it's customers so poorly. At least I won't be forced into picking up the phone to cancel this year.

Fun With Graphs: Javier Vasquez, AKA "The Suck"

madvillian — Fri, 21 Jul 2006 06:42:21 -0000

Understandably, given the Sox's investment in him and his recent suckitude, Javier Vasquez has been a flashpoint of controversy. In this article, I will attempt to find the underlying causes for Javier's suckitude. Let's start off with a graph charting Javier's ERA compared to the league average over the course of his career.

Note that he hasn't been better than league average in ERA since 03. Remember this 03 season, as we'll be comparing it to his more recent seasons, and try to find the reason for "The Suck".

Javier was advertised as a guy that can strike guys out. Well, can't get on if you can't hit it, so let's see just how good he is at this in the form of his k/9 numbers:

Immediately apparent is that Javier posted an outlier season in 03 with his K/9 rate. He has never come close to that number since, and in fact, his strikeouts are down in 2006 to almost only league average.

For whatever reason he's not striking guys out as much, this is not good.

Alright, well, let's look at his control, in the form of his bb/9 numbers:

Many things factor into "good control", but by one particularly important measure, walks, Javier does just fine. He's right there with his 03 season.

What about the long ball? Among more dedicated fans, Javier has a justified reputation as a guy that is prone to the long ball. Observation as well as statistics suggests he struggles with the HR ball. Surprisingly, his HR/9 numbers are down this year, as evidenced by this graph:

Without seeing the even deeper data on the % of FB against Javier that turn into HR's, it's hard to tell if he's really been better at keeping the ball down, or if he is just getting lucky.

There is evidence though, that the % of FB that turn into HR is not something a pitcher can control, and that the league average is around 11%, anything higher or lower than this is probably caused by park factors and random variance.

If we measure how many fly balls Javier is throwing, we might be able to provide solid evidence that he's doing a better job of keeping the ball down, thus limiting both fly balls and home runs.

Let's check out the graph:

The bad news is: Javier is throwing more fly balls this year than last year. However, in general, those balls, for whatever reason, are staying in the park. It is interesting to note that in 03, Javier's batted ball stats were actually worse than what they are so far this year. However, remember how many more strikeouts he was getting in 03, and it might partially explain why he was so much more successful.

Finally, our last two graphs focus on stats that people with much more training in statistics have argued pitchers have little to no conrol over: the % of runners left on base, and the batting average on balls in play against a pitcher, sometimes referred to as pitcher's BABIB (batting average on balls in play).

In an attempt to see if Javier has perhaps just been unlucky, let's look at the graphs for % of base runners left on and Pitcher's BABIB:

This graph perhaps shows, along with strikeouts (and possibly in conjunction with) why Javier experienced so much success in 03 compared to so far in 06: when runners got on in 03 against Javier, they didn't score very often, however, this year, they are scoring in bunches. Is he weak mentally, i.e. is he lacking confidence? Can he not "buckle down" under pressure?

Alternatively, is his stuff just not as good in 06 compared to 03? That is, he can't just rear back and throw it past guys when runners get on anymore. Strikeouts are always valuable, but they are most valuable with runners on. It is possible that Javier simply struck people out when the going got tough in 03, but has been unable (for whatever reason) to do so in 06.

And now Pitcher BABIB:

Although the difference between 03 and 06 is not as pronounced here, it is still noticable that batters had a lower BABIB against Javier in 03 than 06, again, for whatever reason--luck included. Again, some stats experts have argued pitcher BABIB is entirely "luck", and not at all something a pitcher controls.

I think a few conclusions from the data are possible. First, Javier needs to strike more people out to have success. He isn't a guy that is going to throw a consistent number of ground balls, and he relies on the K to get out of trouble. If he can't start missing some more bats, he'll continue to struggle. His two most successful seasons, in 2001 and 2003, correlate to his best K/9 seaons. Second, Javier has probably been the victim of some bad luck. His % of base runners left on, is likely artificially high. If his career is any indication (and it should be), that number will fall more in line with his career average by the end of the year.

And lastly, and most importantly: Javier's 03 season was likely a fluke.

Javiers is currently being paid very well for a fluke season. His ceiling from this point on is likely as a 10 million dollar league average innings eater.

Seemingly, not even Coop can reclame this reclamation project. Probably because their wasn't much to reclaim in the first place. THANKS A MILLION TIMES TO STUDES, FANGRAPHS, AND COFFEE.

White Sox Win 9 Straight--World To End Soon

madvillian — Sat, 24 Jun 2006 21:40:05 -0000

If you're into such things--namely, signs of the apocalypse--now might be a good time to stock up on canned goods, water, and Joe Crede jerseys.

Seriously, those Crede jerseys are going to go fast after he hit yet another grand slam to help the White Sox win 9 straight for the first time since 1982, as the Sox beat the Astros 6-5 in 10 innings this afternoon in Chicago.

Things were looking dreary with the Sox down 5-1 heading into the bottom of the 7th. But after the Sox had loaded the bases, Crede, in a moment of world series deja vu, took one look at a Chad Qualls meatball and sent it into the left field stands. The grand slam (video) tied the game at 5 and was a huge blow to Houston, who was a victim of bad luck when earlier in the inning Jermaine Dye got jammed and sent a high popup into shallow right that fell in for a hit. Dye's well placed popup loaded the bases for Crede.

The game would remain tied until the bottom of the 10th, when good execution by Juan Uribe--he laid down a picture perfect sacrifice--and then good hitting by Alex Cintron plated Rob Mackowiak, who had led off the inning with a double, for the walk-off winner. Mackowiak had played a terrible game in all areas before his double, and he had to be relieved after scoring the winning run. No doubt many Sox fans will be relieved when Brian Anderson is again roaming center field.

Before the Crede slam in the 7th, it looked like the Sox would again be foiled on their quest for 9 straight: Garland battled his control and the Houston hitters made him pay, scoring 5 runs off the inconsistent right hander. Meanwhile, Houston starter Taylor Buckholz had dominated the Sox, only allowing one run and striking out 8. But with a little luck and a lot of good hitting, the Sox were able to chase Buckholz and do their damage against Houston's bullpen.

This is a game the Sox wouldn't have won if not for excellent bullpen pitching, and it's a game they probably wouldn't have had a chance in just a few weeks ago. But now, the bullpen is again a position of strength, with a confident and aggressive Matt Thornton leading the way today, as he easily dispatched Houston's hitters with good command and a nasty 97 MPH heater. David Riske also pitched well in relief.

Now go get those Crede jerseys. And if you're of age--get drunk tonight--it might be a whole 'nother world when you wake up tommorrow.