SB Nation User Blog: maestro876

Chargers (+4.5) over GIANTS Phil Rivers, would you like some ketchup or A1 sauce with the Giants'...

maestro876 — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 03:34:50 -0000

Chargers (+4.5) over GIANTS
Phil Rivers, would you like some ketchup or A1 sauce with the Giants' secondary? And how would you like them cooked? Is medium rare good? I'm making this my Underdog Lock of the Week. Chargers 38, Giants 30. By the way, I watched the G-men self-destruct against Philly with my dad last Sunday. At one point he said sadly, "Why didn't we get this Eli for the [Giants-Pats] Super Bowl?" He's still not over it. And neither am

Bill Simmons

Hindsight: How Could This Have Been Avoided?

maestro876 — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 22:15:16 -0000

I think we have a good front office, especially considering some of the ones that are out there in other cities (Oakland, Detroit, St. Louis). But the fact remains that they've made some fairly significant errors that has lead to this team being in the state it currently is--an average team with a few talented players, but not enough to be considered an elite group.

Hindsight is 20/20. I'm not disputing that. But A.J. has, over the past few years, appeared to over-value the players already on the team, and not taken any affirmative steps to improve the team beyond the draft. What I'd like to do is take a look back at the 2009 off-season and see what A.J. Smith and the front office could have reasonably, and realistically, done to improve this team. I know it's easier to see things now than several months ago, but I still think it could be a useful and interesting exercise to see what could have been.

By "realistic" and "reasonable", I mean no signings of Albert Haynesworth for $100+ million, no firing Turner or the coaching staff as a whole, no firing A.J. Smith, no replacing half the team and switching to a 4-3. I mean moderate steps that could have translated to significantly improved product on the field.

Feel free to agree or disagree with me. Let's take a look.

The Draft

The draft is the primary tool A.J. likes to use to build and improve a team, and I largely agree with this approach. I don't really have an issue with many of the choices he made, but I think he made a mistake with his 1st, and by extension 3rd, round picks.

I like Larry English. I think he looks like a good kid and has the potential to be a stand-out outside linebacker. I also realize that we had a problem with rushing the passer last year. But despite what we were told in the off-season about a 3-headed monster of pass-rushers, the reality has been that with Shawne Merriman's return, English hasn't seen the field much, and when he has been out there it's mostly been special teams.

A first round pick that could have made an immediate and SIGNIFICANT impact would have been Michael Oher. Many of us hoped/expected us to take him when our turn came and he was still unselected, and I count myself as stunned as anyone else was when Goodell called out English's name instead of Oher's. The simple truth is that Jeromey Clary has been average. He has his good days, and bad days, but he's never going to light the world on fire. Oher could have stepped in and started immediately and played at a high level, just as he's done in Baltimore. That could have allowed us to shift Clary to guard, where many think he would be better suited.

With Oher at right tackle and Clary at right guard, our 3rd round pick could have been used on any other position of need--safety, defensive line, running back. I'm not well-versed enough in the draft to know who would have been available in the 3rd round for us had we not chosen Vasquez. And that's not to say I don't like Vasquez--I do and think he'll be a great guard. But it probably would have been better for the team overall to have an experienced player starting at right guard and to have used the 3rd round pick on a player that could have filled another position of need.

Free Agency

This is where I, and many others, have the biggest problem with A.J. Smith. It's an interesting problem, too, because in the past he wasn't as averse to free agency as he is now. He brought in multiple free agents in the 2004 off-season, and it was a major reason why the Chargers went from last-to-first in one season's time. I have no idea what happened between then and now that's made him avoid it to the extent he has, but since 2004 he hasn't signed one impact free agent I'm aware of (unless you count Kevin Burnett). If someone knows why, please enlighten me.

When you avoid free agents so completely like A.J. does, you're trying to build/improve a team with one hand tied behind your back, and that's not a productive approach. Like I said before, I'm not advocating the idea that A.J. should have paid through the nose to acquire someone like Albert Haynesworth. But there were multiple mid-tier free agents he could have at least PURSUED to attempt to improve the team.

For the safety position, A.J. did make an offer to Jermaine Phillips. Phillips isn't a bad player, but he's got an extensive injury history, evidenced by him missing the last several games of 2008 with a broken arm, and his being placed on IR already this season with the same injury. Plus at the time, many observers believed Phillips was making the rounds in free agency solely to induce the Buccaneers to increase their offer to him. This is in fact what happened, as Phillips re-signed in Tampa.

What A.J. could have, perhaps should have, done was pursue free agent safeties Brian Dawkins, Darren Sharper, and Sean Jones. Dawkins and Sharper have already proven to be impact players on their new teams. Jones hasn't gotten a lot of playing time and probably isn't as talented as Dawkins or Sharper, but he would definitely have been an improvement over the Hart/Gregory/Ellison platoon. Regardless, any of these three players, especially the first two, could have provided immediate impact in the secondary and significantly improved our defense.

On the defensive line, I've already suggested in a couple other posts that we should have pursued Chris Canty. The point has been made that he was injured, and that is true, but he was injured in practice the Wednesday before the first game of the season. That's the kind of injury that's a freak thing, and could just as easily not have happened had he been in San Diego rather than New York. He would have immediately upgraded our defensive line, especially with Bingham going down and Cesaire spending the entire off-season injured. At the very least, he would have been the second most talented player on the line after Castillo, and could have been a valuable contributor to the rotation on the defensive line.

Coaching

This section is perhaps not so realistic. It's probably more wishful thinking. I've made it known elsewhere that I'm not impressed with Ron Rivera. He's not a 3-4 coordinator, and it shows. It would have been really, really nice to have hired an ACTUAL 3-4 coordinator this off-season, one who knows how to use its strengths and disguise its weaknesses. It doesn't seem very realistic to have replaced Rivera this off-season, though, given that he seemed like he had things in hand towards the end of the season. Plus the top 3-4 coordinators, Nolan and Capers, were each hired on January 13th and 19th respectively, which were mere days after our season ended.

Conclusion

In the end, this team wasn't as good as we hoped it would be. Merriman has taken weeks to work his way back, LT is clearly not the back he once was, and our offensive line has struggled in both run blocking and pass protection. The steps I've suggested above wouldn't have been a quick fix by any means. But they would have helped. We would have had a better outlook for the remainder of the season, and people like me wouldn't be being accused of needing Prozac (that's for you, 'Tec).

Like I said, I like A.J. But he really needs to recognize this team's shortcomings, and instead of standing mostly pat and depending on rookies, he needs to go out there and take affirmative steps to improve this team in the 2010 off-season.

My Optimistic Prediction

maestro876 — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 06:59:22 -0000

I've been pretty pessimistic around SB Nation lately, both on Gaslamp Ball and here on BFTB. Therefore, in celebration of our victory over the Raiders today, I've decided to put forward a rosy view of the future. An optimistic portrait of what we could accomplish in the coming weeks if we can improve each week.

We currently stand at 4-3. Our next three games are at the Giants, home vs. the Eagles, and on the road vs. the Broncos. If we can somehow manage to win two of those three games, we'd stand at 6-4 ten games in. You'd like to win the one against Denver to even the tiebreakers, but it's not necessary.

After that, we get two nice games at home vs. Kansas City, and on the road at Cleveland. It should not be a problem winning those games. That would put us at a nice 8-4.

The following two games are somewhat more difficult. At Dallas, who is playing great football right now, and at home vs. Cincinnati, who currently sits in first place in the tough AFC North. If we can somehow manage to split those two games (the game at home vs. Cincy seems like the best bet), we'd be at 9-5 with two games to play.

Our last two games of the season are eminently winnable--@ Tennessee on Christmas Day, and at home vs. the Redskins. Winning those two games would close us out at 11-5, which COULD be enough to win the division if we split with Denver, and should almost certainly be enough for a Wild Card spot.

The keys are the 5 games @ NYG, @ DEN, @ DAL, vs. PHI, and vs. CIN. Going 3-2 in those games would almost guarantee a 10+ win season, assuming we don't mess up against the remaining crappy teams on our schedule. That's our best chance to salvage the season.

OT: Let's talk about the other games.

maestro876 — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 18:10:23 -0000

So let's talk about various other games that are going on. Denver-Baltimore, San Fran-Indy, Dallas-Seattle, all of them.

Have I mentioned how much I hate the 75-word requirement?

So are we all agreed that we're rooting for the Packers over the Vikings? It's almost like the old Colts vs. Pats good vs. evil rivalry.

I'm not going to talk much about Denver, because I've decided to ignore them as suggested by Wonko.

Yee ha!

In his final year as CEO, Sandy Alderson got majority owner John Moores on board with the idea that...

maestro876 — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 03:55:56 -0000

In his final year as CEO, Sandy Alderson got majority owner John Moores on board with the idea that developing your own is the way to go in a mid-sized market. That led to the team’s $8 million facility in the Dominican Republic and a $5 million allowance for international spending in 2008. This year, the team paid out $9 million to sign its top picks. And almost overnight, the bottom half of the farm system found itself stocked with players.

Thoughts on Fuson, Gayton

Hoyer needs to rebuild, and he probably has to start by dealing Gonzalez and Bell for several...

maestro876 — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 05:49:11 -0000

Hoyer needs to rebuild, and he probably has to start by dealing Gonzalez and Bell for several prospects, then investing the payroll savings in the draft and the international market. The Padres have a long ways to go before they're ready to contend in the short term or long term.

This makes me sad.

Adrian to Red Sox?

maestro876 — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:21:42 -0000

So now that we've hired a Boston assistant as our GM, rumors are flying that it's only a matter of time before Adrian gets traded to the Red Sox. Even KT is getting in on the action:

He is a San Diego product and the Padres' one gate attraction, but they know they won't be able to afford Gonzalez when his contract runs out after his $5.5million option year in 2011. In order to get maximum return, the Padres probably will have to trade Gonzalez this winter. Either way, it will be about the most unpopular trade they could ever make. And no doubt, the first bidders at Hoyer's door will be the Red Sox, since he served as GM Theo Epstein's top assistant since 2004.

Sadly, the Padres must deal Gonzalez.

Revenue-sharing money simply isn't enough right now in their market, where a bad local TV package reaps only about $2million and they have $18 million a year in stadium debt. In addition, nobody knows how much it's costing new owner Jeff Moorad to complete his buyout of John Moores. "They're going to have a $40 million payroll for the foreseeable future," said recently fired Padres GM Kevin Towers, "and there's just no way they can devote half of that to one player. It's just a matter of when they decide to trade (Gonzalez)."

I really don't think this has to happen, and will be disappointed if it does.

But if it does in fact happen, what would you want in a trade for Adrian?

I'd want Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Daniel Bard, plus prospects at minimum.

Thoughts?

ALCS Game 6 OT

maestro876 — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 01:37:11 -0000

Doesn't anyone want to watch the last righteous team left in the playoffs battle the evil pinstripes from New York City? Or are we all still dead drunk celebrating the Chargers' victory over the Chiefs earlier today?

Well, I say we get out there and support the Angels against the trepidations of the big bad Yankees. Go Halos!

By the way, it really sucks you have to come up with 75 words to post these stupid things. I can barely write 10 words on my school exams, let alone a fan post intro!

OT: Sunday's other games

maestro876 — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 20:49:14 -0000

Let's all talk about the games going on right now. Atlanta @ Dallas, New York @ Oakland, New Orleans @ Miami, you name it! Atlanta is dominating the Cowboys, and Breezer has already thrown a pick-6 against Miami. Some fun, eh? Maybe we'll lose another undefeated team today.

BTW I think we can all be glad the Chargers won today. How much would it have sucked to have lost? A lot.

Have I taken up 75 words yet?

Who would you choose to replace Turner?

maestro876 — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 01:31:52 -0000

I think for the first time this is becoming a legitimate discussion. I don't think there's much of a possibility of Turner being fired mid-season. But if the team continues to slide and eventually misses the post-season, then I believe that could cost him his job.

I want to be clear. I don't want to get rid of Turner just for the sake of getting rid of him. I still think he's a good coach for a good team. If the team somehow turned things around and made the playoffs with a decent record, then this discussion is moot because nothing is going to happen. If you're still confident that will happen, then that's great and I salute you.

But I don't think this is a good team anymore. I think we have serious personnel and probably coaching issues as well, and I'm not reasonably confident they'll turn it around like the last couple years. I'd like to discuss possible replacements for Turner, as well as both coordinator positions

If we did miss the playoffs and Turner was fired, I would prefer to start fresh. I'm not impressed with Rivera, and Clarence Shelmon is basically a non-person.

Now, I don't think any of the "big name" candidates would be good choices for this team. Gruden, Shanahan, Holmgren, Cowher, etc., I do not want here. A few coaches have gone to a Super Bowl with more than one team, and none have won it with more than one team.

That being said, there are a few guys I think would be good choices for head coach, depending on the direction you'd like to go.

If you want an offensively-minded head coach, I think Bruce Arians, Pittsburgh's OC, would be a good choice. I like what he's done with Roethlisberger and the Steeler receivers, none of whom I think are as good as Philip and the receivers we have here. He's been around Cowher and Tomlin, and probably has a decent idea of how to run a team. He was also Peyton Manning's QB coach when he was a rookie, and probably helped his development along quite well.

In that eventuality, I think John Pagano would make an excellent defensive coordinator. He's been around Phillips, Cottrell, and Rivera, and been with the Chargers for some time. I think that he's probably got a good idea of what works with our personnel and what doesn't. He's also got a good rapport with the players, who reportedly all love him.

If you want a defensively-minded head coach, three possibilities come to mind for me. First there's Greg Manusky. He was here with the Chargers for several years as linebacker coach, and is currently San Francisco's defensive coordinator. Again, he's familiar with our personnel, and has been around a few different 3-4 guys and could probably help put together a good defense. He's also been around Schottenheimer, Nolan, and Singletary, which you'd hope would give him a decent idea of what works and what doesn't as a head coach.

The second possibility is Mike Nolan. I'm not inclined to hold his time at San Francisco against him, considering the personnel he had to work with there and the ownership situation. From what I've been told, his leadership abilities were never an issue and the players all loved him. He also clearly knows how to put a defense together, and his work in Denver has been outstanding. Of course, we should wait and see if it holds up an entire season. But if so, I think he should be given serious consideration.

Third is Leslie Frazier, defensive coordinator with Minnesota. Again, he seems to be putting together a good resume for himself, running their defense from 2007 to present. He's a 4-3 guy, so we'd still need a 3-4 coordinator, but I think Pagano could still fill that role nicely.

If we go with a defensive head coach, I think an interesting idea for offensive coordinator would be Hue Jackson, QB coach in Baltimore. Wonko brought this up, and I think it's a good idea. He's worked with top QBs like Palmer, and has done a good job so far with Flacco. He's also familiar with Cameron's offense, which a good portion of our key players (Rivers, LT, Nick) should remember.

I'll include a poll, but since I can only do one there will be just HC candidates included. Go ahead and vote, and tell us what you think. Feel free to talk about coordinators as well. I'd like to see where people stand. I already said I'm against the "big names", but I know other people aren't.

Poll

Who would be your choice for the next head coach of the San Diego Chargers?

Mike Holmgren

8 votes

Mike Shanahan

42 votes

John Gruden

107 votes

Bill Cowher

137 votes

Brian Billick

21 votes

Bruce Arians

11 votes

Greg Manusky

8 votes

Mike Nolan

24 votes

Leslie Frazier

12 votes

Other (explain)

10 votes

380 votes | Poll has closed