What I would do with the Magic this summer?

It is obvious, just from the playoff series with the Atlanta Hawks, that Orlando could benefit from some off-season adjustments. 

No, I'm not giving up hope for this season.  Even if Orlando wins the whole thing, I'd be tempted to break up this team a little in order to make improvements for next season.  I see there are already a few FanPosts looking ahead to the summer, so let me throw mine out there, too.

I've been toying with this idea for awhile now (even before Josh Smith went off for 26 points versus the Magic or the playoffs started).  I recognize that our tradeable assets are slim, but I think some moves are possible.  I try to avoid "homer" trades that rob other teams in order to benefit Orlando.  Rather, I try to consider realistic scenarios that might be palatable to the trading partner as well as beneficial to the Magic.

FRONT OFFICE CHANGE:

Goodbye to Otis Smith.

Too many bad moves.  (I know there were a few pluses, but too few.) I know some critiques are 20/20 hindsight, but even so.

• Failed to extend Dwight as soon as he was eligible. 
• Got Vince Carter in the retread years. 
• No return this year on our draft picks. 
• Duhon for four years, for too much $$$.
• Net losses on the mid-season trades from this year--which essentially amount to giving up Gortat, Pietrus, and a 1st rounder to get Hedo back. 
• Failed to obtain a backup center.  Without which the bench cannot sustain leads.
• And, the last straw--gimpy Gilbert Arenas. 

He's running out of players to sign or trade for from his days with the front office of the Golden State Warriors.

I don't get the sense that other GMs in the league enjoy doing business with him.

The only reason to keep Otis around at this point is to have a scapegoat if Dwight leaves.

ROSTER CHANGES

The following player moves assume that the new CBA operates with contraints and stipulations that mirror the present agreement (or perhaps creates a environment that lowers the level of player salaries).  I also assume (unless otherwise stated) that all these moves work together as a package.  If any one part could not be pulled off, then the whole plan needs revamping.

1. Dump Gilbert Arenas under the new CBA?

If the new CBA mirrors the old CBA and allows franchises to excise one contract when the agreement is enacted, then Arenas gets the axe.

If Arenas is retained, he'd better get himself in game shape this summer and even then he's likely the 3rd PG.  If he's disruptive to the team based on that decision, I'd give deep consideration to suspending him.

2. Trade with the Atlanta Hawks

OUT: Jameer Nelson, Brandon Bass, Quentin Richardson, Fran Vazquez, and 2014 1st round draft pick.
IN: Josh Smith and Jeff Teague. 

If Atlanta is going to stay out of the tax after signing Joe Johnson, they need to make some moves.  There was a report earlier this year of Josh Smith being a little distruptive in the locker room in terms of relating to the coach.  Jeff Teague gets very little time and trust in Larry Drew's system.  So, perhaps Atlanta is willing to part with the two of them in exchange for the right pieces. 

This move assumes that Fran Vazquez will come over and sign this summer--which he might be more inclined to do if he has a chance to start on a team rather than being stuck on the bench behind ironman, Dwight Howard.

Why for Atlanta?

• Jameer is a PG upgrade.
• Get a starting center in Vazquez.
• Get a future 1st rounder.
• Get a starting-level, young, athletic backup PF in Bass.
• Get bench depth on the wing with QRich.
• Can use Hinrich's expiring for other assets.
• Atlanta only needs to resign Jamal Crawford, agree to terms with Vazquez, and fill out the roster with a few minimum salary players to be set for next season. 

Atlanta's lineup:

PG Jameer Nelson - Kirk Hinrich
SG Joe Johnson - Jamal Crawford
SF Marvin Williams - Quentin Richardson
PF Al Horford - Brandon Bass
C Fran Vazquez - Zaza Pachulia

Now, if the Hawks beat the Magic in the 1st round, they may not want to make many (any?) changes, since winning helps soothe strained relationships.  And, while Josh Smith is really the only contributing piece they are giving up in this deal; he's a big chip.  (So maybe Atlanta just decides to trade Marvin Williams to Dallas for Brendan Haywood and stand pat.)

Why for Orlando?
Josh Smith would become the starting PF. 

• Though he has a reputation of spacing out on the court, I think he's an upgrade over Bass.
• Chucking has really diminished over the last two seasons.
• Good on defensive rotations.
• Great weakside shot blocker. 
• Not the ball-stopper on offense that Bass has been.  Smith averages three assists per game. 
• Capable of attaching the rim.
• Gives the option of dropping down to SF in lineups with another PF.

Teague is a scoring PG that I think could serve as a sufficient backup in Van Gundy's system.  Better than average three-point shooter.  In a pinch, he could play at the SG spot.

This is giving up a lot of assets in order to get Josh Smith, but I think his contributions are worth it.

3. Trade PGs with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

OUT: 2012 1st round pick, Chris Duhon, $3M cash
IN: Ramon Sessions. 

Why for Cleveland?
Yes, this is PG for PG, but it gives the rebuilding Cavaliers (which will take a few years) another draft pick, pays most of Duhon's 2011-12 salary, and lets them consider using Duhon as the backup PG if they both draft someone like Kyrie Irving and want to move Daniel Gibson or Baron Davis for other assets.

Why for Orlando?
While Sessions does not have Nelson's outside shooting (in fact he's pretty bad from distance), he does get to the rim and [importantly] draws fouls.  I also think he'd be a great P&R partner in Van Gundy's offense. The rest of the moves preserve the three-point aspect of the offense.  This is one of the moves that improves Orlando's ability to generate offense by attacking the rim and getting to the line.  Yes, Jameer can drive-&-dish or drive-&-float, but he does not tend to draw contact and trips to the line.  I also think Sessions and Teague give the option of playing at a faster pace and getting more transition buckets.  Part of me thinks the slow pace to this offense might be Van Gundy, but I often wonder if Nelson isn't the bigger culprit.

On the other end of the court, Sessions' reputation is that he doesn't play defense, but I don't think he's been on a team that emphasizes it like Orlando does.  He is certainly athletic enough to play good defense.  Also, with Sessions at 6'3" and Teague at 6'2", there is a little added height and wingspan for PG defense.

4. Get a backup center.

Despite what the Orlando Sentinel reports, Orton needs to show me something before I pencil him in behind Dwight.  I have no problem making him the 3rd center on the depth chart.

Option A: Trade with the Dallas Mavaricks?  Ian Mahinmi for Lewis TPE, $2M cash, and a 2nd round pick.

Option B: Sign a free agent such as (in order) Kwame Brown, Nazr Mohommed, or even Alexis Ajinca.  Orlando can sign & trade via the Lewis TPE to get a little above the minimum player salary without cutting into the mid-level exception (if it still exists).  If the bi-annual exception still exists, that could be used, too.

Why for Orlando?
The need is fairly obvious.  Though young and still gaining experience, I think Mahinmi would be athletic enough to defend the paint and, if Van Gundy would allow it, he's not a bad offensive option either.  His plus/minus numbers have been pretty good for his career.  I think he's worth a try.  [Rakovic is an outside option here, too.]

5. Trade/Sign players from Denver Nuggets

I'd like to secure Arron Afflalo as the starting SG, but I'm not sure Denver will part with him.  I'm even less sure now that JR Smith has expressed his desire to leave the Nuggets.  Originally, I hoped Orlando could sign Afflalo to an offer rich enough to dissuade Denver from matching him (he's a restricted free agent).  Then I got the idea to take on Al Harrington's contract to entice Denver to let the deal go through. 

Denver and their players have some decisions to make this summer regarding who to extend/re-sign and who will go.  Will Nene stay?  Will they resign Kevin Martin?  How much will Wilson Chandler cost them?  Do they keep Felton or move him?

Frankly, I'm not sure that Denver would part with anyone but JR Smith.  And if they won't, Orlando could do worse than hanging onto JJ Redick and re-signing Jason Richardson.  Though since mid-season, I'm concerned that JRich is out of gas as well as a defensive liability. 

This summer, there are few SGs of worth on the free agent market, so the bidding might be high for restricted free agent Afflalo.  Can Orlando afford it?

There are lots of different options to make the salaries work.  Here's the one that I think is best for Orlando:

Sign Arron Afflalo to a contract via the MLE to to an amount which he'd agree to sign and Denver would not match. This gives Affalo a greater raise than the max 26.5% bump he could get with an extension ($2.79M).  Absorb Al Harrington via the Gortat TPE.

Maybe the 2014 1st round pick should be offered to Denver instead of to Atlanta.  I don't know.

Why for Orlando?
Afflalo is the wing defender that has been absent this year.  High basketball IQ.  High percentage three-point shooter.  Gets his points in the flow of the offense.

As an aside, Orlando could offer JJ Redick to Denver in order to get Afflalo.  In which case two supplemental options are: (1) resign Jason Richardson as the second SG, or (2) sign a free agent like, say, JR Smith as a part of the transactions with Denver.
 
I'd pick to keep Redick. It provides more continuity to the team from this season and gives the Magic one more player in the locker room who is firmly behind Van Gundy's system.  On the other hand, JR Smith can give instant offense off the bench. Though he has the rep of being an offensive player, Redick's percentages are actually better than Smith's expect that Smith gets more rebounds.  However, Smith can slide up to the SF spot and play alongside Afflalo when needed.

Though I'd place Harrington down the depth chart here, he is good injury insurance and could make decent offensive contributions if called upon.  He could play SF in a pinch.  Granted, he's not been much of a defender in his career, but his role would be offense off the bench.  (If I weren't trying to entice Denver to give up Afflalo, the cheaper route is to avoid Harrington and try to re-sign Earl Clark.)

Again, I'm not sure Denver will want to part with either Afflalo or Harrington.

ORLANDO'S LINEUP (age at season start in parenthesis):

PG - Sessions(25) - Teague(23) - Arenas?(29)

SG - Afflalo(25) - JJ Redick(27) or JR Smith(26)

SF - Turkoglu(32)

PF - Josh Smith(25) - Ryan Anderson(24) - Al Harrington(31)

C - Howard(25) - Mahinmi (or other)(24) - Orton(21)

Without Arenas, that is 11 players.  The current roster minimum is 13.  So, pick up two minimum salary players: a 3rd PG and a wing.

Discuss.

1st Trade - ORLANDO-PHILDELPHIA

Out - Jason Richardson, Brandon Bass, Chris Duhon, Malik Allen (Duhon & Allen to make salaries match)

In - Andre Igoudala, Elton Brand (plus Battie or filler if Orlando and Philly agree on lesser players)
*can't take place until Feb 18, due to restrictions on trading Richardson with another player.

Pros:

• Igoudala is the wing defender that is missing right now; and he can get to the rim, yet is a very willing passer.  I'd start him at SG, but he also fits the SF-as-facilitator role when Turk is off the floor.
  
• Brand has higher basketball IQ than Bass and is a more willing passer while putting up similar per36 numbers to Bass. Brand has produced good numbers during his time playing limited minutes at center for the 76ers.  (While Brand is partly the cost of acquiring Igoudala, the combo of Brand and Igoudala is a net plus in my mind.)
• Gets rid of Duhon's contract.
• Otis Smith gets more of the league's "least tradeable" contracts.

Cons:

• More expensive.
• Igoudala not as good outside the 3-point arc as JRich.
• Is there time for new players to mesh into the system before the playoffs? (with Igoudala and Brand's high basketball IQ, I think the answer is yes.)
  
• Leaves Orlando with only 11 players.  They could either sign vets, DLeaguers, or use their TPE to absorb someone from a 3rd or 4th team. For example, Utah is over the cap and might give up Ronnie Price or Earl Watson to be our 3rd PG.  Or Minnesota might move Telfair for cash and Fran Vasquez's rights--to lure or package with Rubio.  Or maybe Philly waives Malik Allen and he comes back to the Magic bench.  I'd like to see a SF/wing picked up in case Turk or Igoudala were to go down...or to let Turk sit for a few games and save his aged-body for the playoffs--or maybe more time for Clark at the SF??
  

Why for 76ers:

• Get out of Brand's contract (who else is going to take it?)
• Get a younger PF replacement in Bass.
• Accelerates the youth movement.
• Bass and JRich give them enough talent to continue their playoff push this season.

2ND Trade - ORLANDO-DALLAS

Out - Quentin Richardson, Daniel Orton (via TPE)

In - Ian Mahinmi, Dominique Jones

Pros:

• Young "play now" backup center in Mahinmi.
• Rookie SG that can get to the rim (with Central Florida ties).

Mahinmi is the most important piece.  To balance salaries in the trade another player has to come from Dallas.  I'm suggesting Jones, because his contract balances the salary numbers.  Jose Juan Barea or Rodrigue Beaubois' contracts would work, too, but the Mavs are high on Beaubois.  And, Barea gets more floor time right now than Jones, so I assume that makes Jones more moveable.  It is technically possible to just trade QRich for Mahinmi using each team's TPEs and held draft rights.

Cons:

• Lose Richardson knowing the Magic system while bringing in two new players.
• Lose Orton as a prospect.

Why for Dallas:
Lost Caron Butler, but are in "win now" mode.  QRich gives the Mavs vet experience on the wing--likely a starter at small forward.  Orton gives them a young prospect for next year, so they are not completely giving up this year's 1st round pick.  [Still not sure Dallas would go for this move, since Mahinmi and Jones may be worth more to them than this offer gives them.  They'd probably be more willing to move Haywood, but that would be a rotten contract for Orlando relative to his production and floor time.]

New Lineup:

Nelson / Arenas / ***
Igoudala / Redick / Dominique Jones
Turkoglu / ***
Brand / Anderson / Clark
Howard / Mahinmi

Alternate idea:
Jason Richardson goes with QRich to Dallas.  Caron Bulter and DeShawn Stevenson's expiring contracts go to Philadelphia plus Dallas' 1st-round pick.  This way Dallas gets more talent now and Philly gets more assets for the future.  This depends on the 76ers desire to play younger players versus making the playoff push with JRich on the team.

After the Brian Schmitz Orlando Sentinel article appeared with the quote from Magic GM Otis Smith, stating that he might not sign another big man AND the ensuing comment thread here at OPP regarding that article, I decided to take a look at the numbers. 

How are the Magic doing during the times Dwight is on the bench since the big trades?

The Data:

(All info taken from basketball-reference.com team unit data through Jan 10, 2011)

• The table below shows all lineups without Dwight since the trade with greater than one minute of floor time (of the nine other units with < 1 min, there is only one score for Orlando and one score for the opponent in 4.13 total minutes; so it just becomes statistical noise).
• Even the units that get below 10 minutes of playing time are difficult to use in drawing conclusions (so don't make too much of a particular lineup that has very few minutes).
• Some of these lineups are garbage time and likewise difficult to use in drawing conclusions.

[click table to enlarge image]

Update #2 (10:25pm EST) new table. Thanks to an inquiry by Matt1325, I realized that my original method of calculating the difference between ORtg and DRtg was not correct.  In the new table below, I've summed and calculated the ORtg and DRtg based on the possession and point totals, rather than my original method of trying to produce the results based on weighting each lineup according to its % of total minutes.

Some concluding thoughts:

There is a reason Allen, Duhon, Q. Richardson are not in the regular rotation.  Their units tend to be the statistically worst.

Weighting each lineup for its percentage of total minutes, the Magic ORtg/DRtg differential is +16.07 with Dwight off the floor since the trades.  [Update #2: This means that without Dwight, the Magic's ORtg is 16.07 points better than their DRtg.  This is not the same as an on/off rating....in other words, the Magic are not 16.07 points better with Dwight off the floor than with him on the floor.  Or vice versa. Nor is this a simple +/- rating.]

So far, so good.

Certainly an injury to a rotation player would be a concern (as it is for any team in the league). Even then, the Magic may have the personnel to weather the storm.  For now, it appears that Otis' "if the right deal comes along" approach continues to be the correct one.

Update #1: Copying my comment from below into the post itself:

When Malik Allen plays center, all of the 5-man units with negative ratings come with Duhon on the floor (looking at the whole season).

Allen + any other PG = positive-rated 5-man unit. (Well, perhaps there is one exception to note. One of the negative units has Duhon and Nelson in at the same time with Redick at the SF versus Philly—the game when the trade was going down—so it is hard to tell who was the PG and who the SG…or really for that matter to use that game as much of a measuring stick at all.)

However, Allen + Duhon is not always negative. Sometimes that combo has positive rated 5-man units, too.

I was just surprised that Allen + any of the PGs besides Duhon seemed to do okay in limited minutes.

Btw, Allen at PF never seems to work very well either offensively or defensively. One more tidbit: Allen has zero minutes with Clark.

So, really an injury to any of Howard, Anderson, or Bass could significantly hurt the Magic, and would push Turkoglu and/or Clark into more minutes at PF.

Data on Allen from: http://basketballvalue.com/player.php?year=2010-2011&id=130

Imagine playing the Orlando Magic and the Miami Heat on the road on back-to-back nights. Brutal. 14 times this season, that is exactly what happens; thanks to the NBA travel agents schedule makers.

Six times, Orlando receives the benefit of getting the 2nd game.

Eight times, the advantage swings to the Heat, who play a team that had to face Orlando the night before.

Additionally, five times, teams play at Orlando and Miami in consecutive road games, but they have a day off in between (twice that team is the Knicks...cue Stern-based conspiracy theorists).

Incidentally, does it ever happen that a team has to play the Heat and Magic on a back-to-back on their home floor (i.e. away games for both the Magic & Heat)?  Nope.

Dates for these games are below.  I've also listed the occasions [in square brackets] that either Orlando or Miami is playing on the second night of their own back-to-back.

Continue reading this post »

Ed. note: OPP community member magicfaninTN has really outdone himself with this thorough examination of Dwight Howard's many technical fouls. As such, I've promoted it to the frontpage. - BQR

As a part of the lively discussion in the post, Off-Day Open Thread: Should the Orlando Magic Curb Their Complaining to Referees?, I started to wonder if there was a trend in Dwight's technical fouls.  Do they hurt the team by taking Dwight out of his game?  Do they lead to momentum swings for the other team?  Are they linked to frustration with early foul trouble?  Missed free throws?  Repeated no-calls?

Technical foul situations do not make it into the boxscore.  There is no single good place that I could find online that lists the technical foul information all in one place.  So, I did the grunt work of cobbling the following tables together by using the boxscores at YahooSports, the play-by-play info at ESPN, and either the Associated Press or Orlando Pinstriped Post recaps.  Remember, I didn't watch a lot of these games (and even if I did, that's a long time ago), so in a lot of cases I'm guessing the reason by looking through the events of the play-by-play.  Feel free to offer corrections in the comments if you remember the game.

I didn't take the time to look up which of these techs have been rescinded, but since Dwight's official count is 15 (rather than the 17 I have listed), at least two were withdrawn by the NBA.  I'm more interested in the situations that lead to them getting called in the first place.

Continue reading this post »

[4/1/2010 data from ESPN.com, Hoopdata.com, and basket-reference.com, players on pace for 70 games and 1400 points to qualify.  FYI, Gil Arenas is the only top 25 player to not make the cut due to limited games played.]

What if Dwight shot the ball as much as the league's other scoring leaders?

Dwight is currently 26th in the league at 18.6 points per game (ppg).

Field Goal Attempts Per Game

• Dwight takes 10.3 fga per game. Lowest in the top 60! scorers. Efficient!
  
• Scorers #1-25 average 17.0 fga per game.
• That's an average difference of 6.7 fga per game less for Dwight.

Field Goal Percentages

• Dwight is 1st in FG% at .607
• 1st in eFG% at .607
• 2nd in TS% at .631 (trails Nene's .633, who is #66 in ppg at 13.9ppg)
• Players #1-25 average eFG% = .507
• Dwight makes a ridiculous 1.81 points per shot (C. Maggette is 2nd at 1.58pps).

The Big Men Who Score More Than Dwight

The PFs and Cs who rank above Dwight in ppg are, in order: Dirk, Bosh, Stoudemire, Z Randolph, NYK's D. Lee, Boozer, NJN's B. Lopez, & NOH's D. West.

What if Dwight took as many shots as the scoring leaders ahead of him on the list?  What would his PPG be?

Calculation #1 - if Dwight shot the scoring leader average 17.0 fga per game:

If you use his .607 FG%  for the extra 6.7 FGAs, it would be 26.7ppg.

Dwight's current 18.6ppg + (6.7 more shots * .607FG% * 2pts per basket) = 26.7ppg

Good for 5th behind LeBron & Durant (29.7ppg on 20.1fga), Carmelo (28.5ppg on 21.9fga), and Kobe (27.2ppg on 21.4fga). 

Dwight would still be averaging at least 3 fewer shots per game than these other leaders and no 3-pointers to speak of.  Pretty efficient scoring even with his lower free throw percentage. 

Calculation #2 - if Dwight took LeBron's 20.1 fga per game:

If Dwight took the extra 9.8 shots per game to equal LeBron's 20.1 FGAs (note Dwight's USG% is not even in the top 20), Dwight would score 30.5ppg to lead the league!  (And, on-air personalities would probably all call him a chucker.)

Dwight's current 18.6ppg + (9.8 more FGA * .607 FG% * 2pts per basket) = 30.5ppg

Calculation #3 - if Dwight's extra 6.7 fgas are shot at a lower percentage:

But let's assume that taking more shots might lower Dwight's shooting percentage a little.  To be fair, let's use the average eFG% for the 25 players above Dwight (.507) for these extra 6.7 shots.

Dwight's current 18.6ppg + (6.7 more FGA * .507 eFG% * 2pts per basket) = 25.4ppg

Still good for 7th, just ahead of Dirk and just behind #5 D. Wade (26.2ppg on 19.6fga) and #6 M. Ellis(25.5ppg on 22.0fga).  He'd still have the highest ppg for for all PF's and C's in the league.

Calculation #4 - if Dwight shot the same (lower) number of free throws as the top 25 average:

Dwight leads the league in FTA per game at 10.2.  Players #1-25 average only 6.5 FTA per game.  What if we lowered Dwight's FTA so that his scoring is calculated matching this lower average?

If Dwight shot his .603 FT% at 6.5 attempts per game, he'd score 2.25 points per game less.  But, I'd say we really ought to ignore a deduction like that; because if Dwight shot 6.7 more FGA per game, then it is likely that he'd get fouled more (rather than less) and thereby get more (rather than less) FTA [UPDATE - especially since Dwight is 3rd in the league in FTA/FGA at 0.99].  But, even if we did take away those 2.25 free throw points, you get 25.4ppg - 2.25ftm = 23.1ppg.  Good for 10th in the league; behind PFs Dirk & Bosh and ahead of Ama're.

Final Thought

Would those kind of numbers help his MVP campaign?  Probably.  It would be harder for the casual analyst (yes, I know that should be an oxymoron) to ignore his offensive contributions.

I keep seeing people mention the "hockey-assist" in comment threads.  It's made me think that we might want come up with a list of non-boxscore stats like hockey-assist and as a group try to keep a record of them as the season goes on (maybe the playoffs or next year would be the time to give it a trial run).  When Jon Nichols was contributing, he was watching games and making these kinds of observations:

Tracking Dwight Howard’s Offense in the Magic’s 106-94 Victory Over the Timberwolves

Tracking Defense in the Magic’s 104-99 Victory Over the Jazz

Tracking Defense in the Magic’s 106-98 Victory Over the Pacers

Tracking Hustle Plays in the Magic’s 126-118 Victory Over the Warriors

It needs to be a group effort to develop the list of stats to track (maybe even dividing observers to have some watch offense, some defense, or maybe even divide up so each member is assigned just one stat to watch....having League Pass or being a consistent game-watcher would obviously be necessary).  Then we'd need a mechanism for posting/comparing totals, since some of them may be largely subjective observations.

Just an idea.  Doable?  What stats?  Discuss.

We are all familiar with the chatter about whether or not LeBron stays in Cleveland or hits the free agent market.  Teams have cleared cap space to make a run at LBJ (and/or Dwayne Wade, Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh, etc.).  Lately, commentators have questioned whether or not the teams that cleared out cap space can offer a roster that gives LeBron better pieces to contend for multiple championships than what he already has in Cleveland.

Secondly, in the comments on a recent thread erivera7 mentioned that JJ Redick could be resigned as the heir apparent at starting SG, but such a move would necessitate getting a premier wing at the SF position.  Who is more premier at SF than LeBron James?  No one.  So, I got thinking about Otis and Dwight making a pitch to LeBron.  And if LBJ wants to come play alongside Dwight and the other assembled pieces in Orlando, what kind of pitch would it take to Danny Ferry to get him to pull the trigger rather than just telling LeBron, "don't let the door hit you on the way out"?

So, let's say LeBron wants to play with the young, dominating big man, Dwight Howard, without state income tax, in a brand new arena, on a team put together for multiple championship runs with a serious/elite coach....that's already defending its Finals' title (okay, okay, that last one is still TBD).

To get LeBron, Otis ought to be willing to part with anyone not named Dwight.  Right?   This offer is pretty tilted for Cleveland, but this is LBJ, so in the final analysis, ORL gets the better package.  Nonetheless, even with LeBron in the driver's seat as far as the Cavs, I'm leaning toward making it sweet for CLE to avoid losing the deal to one of the cap-cleared teams.  With this, Danny Ferry doesn't end up looking like such a jerk, because (1) LeBron himself pushes the issue, and (2) the Cavs get something in return.....small consolation for setting up another team in the East for a dynasty.  And, I recognize that one reason Ferry would not do this is that it would upset the "balance of power" in the East, but not significantly more than letting LeBron team up with Bosh, Wade, or Amare on one of the cap-cleared teams.  Just throwing it out to get the OPP community's feedback.

Here's the package:

Continue reading this post »

Sources: 82games.com (data through 1/25/2010) & basketball-reference.com (data through 2/2/2010) for 2009-2010 NBA regular season. [UPDATED with 2/3/2010 data from 82games.com for one table.]

Where does this idea come from?

• I read commenter magic12ball's remark,"VC does NOT deserve to be winning with Orlando while Courtney Lee is a "loser" with NJ," and wondered if that's fair in terms of the contributions each player is making to the team(s).  It seemed like a funny thing to say when the Nets gave up their starting SG in Carter and one projected backup PF in Anderson, in exchange for a starting SG in Lee, starting PG from the Eastern Conference Champions in Rafer Alston, and a backup PF/C in Tony Battie, but then NJ went completely in the tank this season.  If it is as simple as Lee = good, and Carter = bad, then somebody's got some explainin' to do about the Nets.(By the way, I'm not saying magic12ball's remark was intended to be as reductionistic as I might have just made it sound.)
  
• So, I went hunting for numbers to compare Vince Carter and Courtney Lee. [Leave aside for now (a) the contributions that Ryan Anderson has made this season, and (b) the Nets/Magic team differences, because they are essentially moot. Carter doesn't play for the 2009-10 Nets nor Lee for the Magic. So saying things like, "If Lee played for Orlando..." doesn't help.  Can't crunch those numbers.  Sorry.] 
• Then I remembered the Hedo versus Carter debate, so Turkoglu's numbers got added for comparison. 
• Then I started thinking that Hedo was a SF for Orlando, but Carter is a SG.  So, I decided to look at last year's SG/SF combo and this year's SG/SF combo by adding Matt Barnes' stats. 
• Finally, where applicable, I added/averaged the Turkoglu+Lee combo and the Carter+Barnes combo. 
• I bolded the "best" stat (again, where applicable) for both the individual player and the combos.
• I know this excludes the other players and the impact of units.  Take it for what it's worth.

Here are the numbers.  It's a lot of data.  But, in my opinion, it gives a pretty good statistical comparison of the four players.  My observations follow the charts.

[HTML tables are murder to compose at this site, so I uploaded screen grabs of my spreadsheets.  The images are not all a standard size.  Click for the full-size image.]

Continue reading this post »

Dwight's Physical Peak

The analysis of players' peak ages in the article, "For Prime Out Loud!" has got me to thinkin'....originally about Vince Carter who is mentioned in the article, but then about the 24-year-old franchise superstar, Dwight Howard.  How long does Orlando have with Howard to win a championship?  According to the article's analysis, if Howard follows the typical pattern then he enters an adjustment curve this summer/next season (can someone say, "Develop the jump shot!"?). 

How badly does the organization's management want to win a championship?  Some pundits have said that last year with Hedo was the best chance.  Watching Carter play this year leads some of us to agree with that.  At the risk that this year may be the athletic peak for Dwight, are the Magic willing to go deeper into the tax in order to win? 

Assessing the Competition

• Atlanta - The Hawks are already something of a threat (except Orlando seems to have their number) and if they retain Joe Johnson and find a center upgrade (maybe before the deadline), then they are a bigger concern. 
• Boston -  Boston might have already aged themselves out of contention due to the Garnett injury re-surfacing this season.  But Perkins gives Howard fits and Rondo typically torches the Magic.  Both of those players are young and improving. 
• Cleveland - If the Cavs are successful in trading Big Z for a stretch PF like Jamison or Murphy, Orlando may be in a heap of trouble in the East.
• The West - Even if Orlando survives the East, it is questionable whether or not Carter is the piece that let's Orlando beat the Lakers, Nuggets, or whomever prevails in the West.  Maybe.  Maybe not.
• 2010-2011 - Looking ahead to next year, with this summer's possible free agent moves, Orlando faces the possibility of two (or three), top-tier free agents joining forces in the East for NJ, NY, or Miami.  And, Chicago (unless management blows it) will be one more step into their rebuild.

Stand pat, tweak, or go for broke?

That's the money question, isn't it?  (Sorry, couldn't resist.)  Standing pat and tweaking are both defensible moves.  But I'm not defending them here.

If we make a big splash, trying to move Carter has the biggest potential to pay off for the Magic due to factors that have been detailed in numerous places on this site and others (salary relief, get a better player back, etc.).  But, Carter is a gamble for both Orlando and any trade partner, because the very real possibility of him healing from the injuries, adjusting his game, and returning to a higher-level of play--for both this year and next--still exists.  So who takes Carter, especially when his value is so low right now?  Answer: Somebody who has even "worse" assets that they need to move.  Since Carter is owed ($16M/$17.5M/$4M), we are talking about a team with a contract longer than two years that they are looking to unload. 

I've come up with 4 possible trade ideas below the jump.  My preference would be #4.

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The Off-Day Open Thread: What Do You Want to See From the Orlando Magic in the Next Few Games? got me thinking and rather than just leave a comment there, I'm putting my thoughts here.

With the extra two PFs we have in the stable this season (Brandon Bass & Ryan Anderson), I'd like to see the Magic test Lewis at the SF spot for enough floor time to get a good look at this option before the trade deadline.  Yes, I know about Lewis and SF defense, but 82games.com shows in the limited time he got this year and last at the 3, he did okay.

In 2008-2009 (Rashard Lewis '08-'09 at 82 games.com), Lewis played 3% of the team's minutes at SF (I'm not taking time to look up those full lineups, W & Ls, etc).  95.3 team OFF rating/87.2 team DEF rating.  His per48 ppg, rpg, apg, etc. between his time at SF and time at PF are almost identical.

In 2009-2010 (Rashard Lewis '09-'10 at 82 games.com), he's played only 2% of the team's total available minutes as the SF.  97.2 OFF/89.3 DEF.

The problem?  Small sample size.

Switching data sources and looking at all of Rashard's 5-man units this year at basketballvalue.com runs into the same problem.  The sample size is too small and the lineups too varied (only 4-5 minutes per any given 5-man unit where Lewis plays with another PF) to figure out very well if Lewis at the SF spot works, and if it works who the other four players need to be.

So, I propose giving the following units a try for a quarter or more (total floor time) against at least two different opposing teams:

#1 Nelson - Redick or Pietrus - Lewis - Anderson - Howard, or

#2 Nelson - Redick or Pietrus - Lewis - Bass - Howard

with 2nd unit, JWill - Carter - Barnes or Pietrus - Anderson or Bass - Gortat (to try Carter off the bench, 'cause Lewis and Carter together on the wings probably hurts Orlando defensively).

I know this will negatively impact somebody's wing minutes (Carter, Pietrus, Barnes, Redick) and I haven't thought much about how to rotate (this is more of a platoon approach).  [Edit: I guess if Van Gundy insists, there is probably some way to rotate (using lineup #1) with Lewis moving to the 4 when Anderson sits on the bench and putting Barnes or Pietrus in at the 3 with Anderson for those times when Lewis needs a breather.  That way we can play the stretch 4 offense for all 48 minutes.  And, I know that lineup #2 is what everyone expected when we signed Bass, so maybe there are legit reasons showing up in practice for why we've not gone to it during games.  Edit #2: Actually everyone expected Nelson-Carter-Lewis-Bass-Howard. Edit #3: "everyone" means those who might not have been familiar with Van Gundy's commitment to the 1-in/4-out/stretch-PF system.]  Trade idea below the jump.

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The Magic's current skid of six losses in 10 games has not put coach Stan Van Gundy's job in jeopardy. League sources said Van Gundy is on solid ground. The same cannot be said about most of the roster. An NBA source described Orlando GM Otis Smith as "active" in trade talks and said the Magic could look to reshape their roster before the Feb. 18 trade deadline.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/chris_mannix/01/14/nets.notes/index.html?eref=sihp#ixzz0ceRDKmsw

So trades are on the table?  I originally posted a version of this at RealGM a few weeks ago and didn't get a whole lot of either push back or feedback (some King's fans said no, some said yes, and Philly fans didn't really weigh in).  I know it is VERY unlikely that the Magic make any trades (in fact, I think the team will work out its issues without any moves...barring injury). And, I imagine Eddy and Ben will quickly veto these trades as a bad idea, and they're probably right.  I tried to think realistically for each franchise involved, but I confess it may be a little Magic-centric.  Maybe we wrest some draft picks out of another team, but I actually shot low in order to make the idea more appealing for other teams.  So, for the sake of kicking something around for fun on an off day:

ORL-SAC-PHI-CHI Trade Idea (includes Carter, Igoudala, Brand, Hinrich, and others).  Give it a read.

ORL out:
C - Marcin Gortat (to SAC),
PF/C - Brandon Bass (to PHI),
SF/SG - Mickael Pietrus (to CHI),
SG - Vince Carter (to PHI),
PG - Anthony Johnson (to PHI),
$6.2M TPE (to PHI),
2010 1st Round Pick (to PHI)

ORL in:
PF/C - Elton Brand (from PHI),
SF - Ime Udoka (from SAC),
SF - Jason Kapono (from PHI via TPE),
SG - Andre Igoudala (from PHI),
PG - Kirk Hinrich (from CHI)

ORL: Igoudala > Carter for ORL. Younger, can still finish at the rim, good APG, better defender.  Not as good a 3pt. shooter, but I think his other pluses balance out this minus, even with our 1-in/4-out offense.

The cost of getting Iggy is taking on Elton Brand (who has to play mostly at the 5...but some of PHI's most statistically successful lineups have Brand at the 5) and Jason Kapono (if there is a team that his one skill--3pt shooting--fits, it is ORL).  Alternately, could ship Kapono (2011 expiring) to SAC for Garcia (2014 expiring, though I wouldn't if I were SAC) if they want to create more financial flexibility for the future.   I think Brand's post game would work in the 1-in/4-out system even though he is a little undersized for a center.  And, I think with a post-oriented PF of Brand's skill, Stan could probably come up with some floor time for Howard and Brand together.

ORL gives up Gortat to SAC in order to get the Kenny Thomas contract for Philly and Sergio Rodriguez to the Bulls (for Hinrich replacement).

Bass goes to PHI to give the Sixers front court depth at a better price than Brand (or to CHI if the Bulls want to move Tyrus to PHI and juggle the deal).

Pietrus goes to CHI to get Kirk Hinrich who is for ORL a combination of good perimeter/PG defender (debatable if he's better than Jameer at this point in their careers) and a pass-first PG, which moves Nelson's scoring to the 2nd unit and keeps Dwight's friend on the team.   We lose Pietrus as a defender, but picking up Igoudala should balance (or maybe even improve) that.  Not sure how much burn J-Will gets once Jameer is healed.  Hinrich can, in a pinch, slide up and play the 2.

Ime Udoka is backup insurance at the SF and to give ORL 13 players. He and Kapono likely compete to make the playoff roster. Including Udoka delays the whole trade until Feb 3, because of the 90-day rule.

Adonal Foyle likely sees the court a little more now as a true center and seven-footer.

Oh, did I mention, this is VERY, VERY expensive for ORL.

Kirk Hinrich / Jameer Nelson / Jason Williams*
Andre Igoudala / JJ Redick**
Matt Barnes*** / Jason Kapono*** (or Francisco Garcia) / Ime Udoka*
Rashard Lewis / Ryan Anderson
Dwight Howard / Elton Brand / Adonal Foyle*

[* = expiring contract; ** = RFA; *** = player option for next season]

SAC out:
PF - Kenny Thomas (to PHI),
SF - Ime Udoka (to ORL),
PG/SG - Sergio Rodriguez (to CHI)

SAC in:
C - Marcin Gortat (from ORL),
PG/SG - Royal Ivey (from PHI)

SAC: Gets a defensive, shot-blocking center in Gortat who can split time at the 5 with Hawes (or play beside him in stretches). They do NOT give up any of their essential young core or draft picks and can look for a PF in the offseason or with another trade (Garcia?).

Kenny Thomas' expiring goes to PHI to help ORL get Brand/Igoudala.

Royal Ivey comes from PHI (rather than Anthony Johnson from ORL) because he is more of combo guard and that seems to be the role Sergio played.  Plus a guy named "Royal" should play for the Kings.

Tyreke Evans / Beno Udrih / Royal Ivey*
Kevin Martin / Donte Greene
Omri Casspi / Andres Nocioni / Francisco Garcia (or Jason Kapono)
Jason Thompson / Jon Brockman* / Sean May*
Marcin Gortat / Spencer Hawes


PHI out:
PF/C - Elton Brand (to ORL),
SF - Jason Kapono (to ORL),
SG - Andre Igoudala (to ORL),
PG/SG - Royal Ivey (to SAC)

PHI in:
PF/C - Kenny Thomas (from SAC),
PF/C - Brandon Bass (from ORL),
SG - Vince Carter (from ORL),
PG - Anthony Johnson (from ORL),
$6.2M TPE, (from ORL)
2010 1st Round Pick (from ORL)

PHI: Blows it up. Now, they could take the Tracy McGrady deal everyone is rumbling about, but Houston won't take on Brand, and here, ORL will (and Kapono as well). PHI has to take Vince Carter who seems to still have the "it" factor for some games, but is pretty up and down and a little out of place in ORL's system. He and Iverson can fight for "no-no-no...yeah!" types of shots for the next year.

Even though they are getting Kenny Thomas' expiring this season, PHI still has to wait for Carter and Dalembert to expire after 2010-2011 (or use them as BIG expirings next season) to complete the rebuild.

Anthony Johnson comes over not only as an expiring contract, but his experience helps mentor PGs Williams and Holiday. Otherwise, the youth movement begins.

Lou Williams / Jrue Holiday / Anthony Johnson*
Vince Carter / Allen Iverson* / Willie Green***
Thaddeus Young / Rodney Carney*
Marreesse Speights / Brandon Bass / Jason Smith
Samuel Dalembert*** / Primo Brezec* / Kenny Thomas*


CHI out: PG/SG - Kirk Hinrich
CHI in: SF/SG - Mickael Pietrus (from ORL), PG/SG - Sergio Rodriguez (from SAC)

CHI: Unloads Hinrich's contract and stops trying to make a PG play SG (unless they continue that trend with Rodriguez). Sergio can back up Rose at PG, and when needed, put in some time as a SG. Pietrus brings a defensive presence on the wing and can shoot the 3pt'er while serving as either the starter at the 2 or backup at the 2/3. And, CHI still has Tyrus Thomas, Salmons, James, and Miller to make other moves with.

Derrick Rose / Sergio Rodriguez** / Lindsey Hunter
John Salmons*** / Mickael Pietrus / Jannero Pargo (also 3rd PG)
Loul Deng / (Pietrus?) / James Johnson
Taj Gibson / Tyrus Thomas**
Joakim Noah / Brad Miller* / Jerome James*

It's a daydream.  Maybe a good one.  Maybe not.  So, have at it.....respectful, thoughtful replies most appreciated.....

Tuesday, TrueHoop interviewed statistician Wayne Winston, in "Ten Weeks In, Ten Questions with Wayne Winston." I posted the follow quote that grabbed my attention as a FanShot:

10. You have told me that many coaches do things you simply cannot understand, for instance by ignoring some really good lineups. What are some of the best lineups from this season, and are some of them not being played enough?
As I described above, the Lakers have the best lineups. After that, some of the best in the League are:

....
Magic: Ryan Anderson, Matt Barnes, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick Rating +56
Magic: Matt Barnes, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard and Jason Williams Rating +36

So….what? Sit Carter and Lewis?  Start Jason Williams? What?!

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