SB Nation User Blog: malarky

November Comparison 2007/2008

malarky — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 06:30:59 -0000

I was playing around on http://www.basketball-reference.com/ and was comparing the splits from November 2007 and November 2008. This really shows the huge improvements we have made while playing a much more difficult schedule. Please excuse the image if it doesn't display or display correctly. I couldn't figure out how to import an excel object without losing the formatting.

We have improved almost across the board. The only categories we have not improved on are fouls and opponent FG percentage. We are committing .1 more foul per game this year and allowing .32% better FG percentage. However, these are more than made up by the huge improvement in other areas. The numbers that jump out at me are the rebounding. From 07 to 08 we have grabbed 1.6 more boards a game but our opponents are getting 7.5 fewer. That is 9.1 more boards for us a overall. Offensive rebounding has improved by 3.6 while our opponents have dropped by 2.5 a 6.1 over difference. It looks like everyone who said we would have our biggest weakness fixed immediately once Greg played was right. Your thoughts or observations from the numbers?

Rudy's Translated Stats

malarky — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 22:12:42 -0000

I have been reading a lot of posts lately about how Rudy is going to step in next year and start right away. I have been a bit skeptical about it. I know he is a talented player but the transition from Europe to the NBA is big. My hope is he can come over an play a role similar to what Juan Carlos Navarro has done for the Grizzlies. However, I just remembered that Hollinger posted an article about translating Euroleague stats to the NBA, last year. Rudy was included in that article, but it used last years numbers. I have recalculated the translation of his numbers based on this years stats and I am now convinced he will be able to come in a contribute right away. I doubt he will start, but I could see him taking over Jack's current role.

Hollinger's Projection based on 2006 stats: 17.5 pts/40, 6.6 reb/40, 42.0 FG percent, 15.83 PER)
Note: From the numbers it looks like Hollinger used 2pt% to calculate FG%, so I used that for all the calculations.

Rudy's Current Stats: 18.1 pts, 2.9 reb, 4.5 asst, 56% 2pt%.

Per 40 NBA Translation of 2007/8 stats: 18 pts, 4.5 reb, 7.82 asst, 44% 2pt%.

Direct NBA Translation of 2007/8 stats (27 min/g): 13.58 pts, 3.42 reb, 5.9 asst, 44% 2pt%.

Jarrett Jack's Current Stats (26.6 min/g): 9.7 pts, 2.6 reb, 3.6 asst, 46% 2pt%.

Hollinger uses the following as his translations:

their scoring rate to decrease by 25 percent;

their rebound rate to increase by 18 percent (there are more missed shots to grab over here);

their assist rate to increase by 31 percent (their scorers are stingy on assists);

their shooting percentage to drop by 12 percent; and

overall, their PER drops by 30 percent.

Hollinger also did the calculations on a few others that have come over. So I did a comparison of their proections from Hollinger and their actual NBA stats.

Luis Scola:
Hollinger Projection: 17.1 pts/40. 10.2 reb/40, 50.4 FG percent, 16.27 PER
Actual: 15.38 pts/40, 10.05 reb/40, 52.8% 2pt%.

Marco Belinelli:
Holling Projection: 13.3 pts/40, 3.1 reb/40, 33.4 FG percent, 7.34 PER
Actual: 10.77 pts/40, 2.56 reb/40, 24% 2pt%.

Juan Carlos Navarro (He was not included in the article but I did the calculation since I think Rudy may have a similar impact coming over.)
Projection: 16.2 pts/40, 3 reb/40, 5 asst/40, 46% 2pt%.
Actual: 14.57 pts/40, 2.86 reb/40, 2.86 asst/40, 50% 2pt%.

My calculations may be way off here, but I think the numbers are correct. The original article was insider only, but you can find a copy of it at the following location: http://www.spursreport.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-71049.html

Finley at 1B?

malarky — Tue, 02 May 2006 22:07:57 -0000

Has anyone heard about him getting some time at first? There is a little blurb in the San Diego paper saying he is taking infield practice at first.