SB Nation User Blog: marbotty

The 600/1200 Rule and Predicting Future All-Stars

marbotty — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 22:24:11 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Not me.

I am not a scout. I am not a sabermagician. I have no professional, college, or even high-school baseball experience, either as a player or as part of a front-office or coaching staff.

In fact, my direct association with the game ceased to exist around the 6th grade, when, while picking grass while "manning" right field, I had an epiphany: carrying a lifetime .057 batting average wouldn't be opening any doors for me in the world of baseball.

In other words, I'm no expert. You can take everything I am about to write with a grain of salt, dismiss what I say, and disagree with me entirely.

But be prepared to eat that grain of salt on a serving of crow, as I am 100% correct.

Well, maybe.

Introduction to the 600/1200 Rule

Like clockwork, there is a time each season where I abandon hope of the Royals winning the pennant and instead start to wonder what will happen next year and beyond (see DANSSTOAD). That moment arrived about a week or two ago, and while I still check the boxscores each day, it's less with an interest in seeing the score, and more an eye at individual performances, to see if there's any reason to be optimistic about the future of our younger players.

Specifically, my main concern was whether our core of younger players (Butler, Gordon, Callaspo, and Aviles) would ever be able to hit well enough to anchor a playoff-bound offense, Or, more simply, whether these guys would ever turn into all-stars.

This naturally lead to a couple of questions:

1. How does one define an all-star?

2. Is it even possible to predict if Player X will become an all-star?

I took a bit of an arbitrary approach to #1 -- I defined an "all-star" as any player capable of amassing an .800 OPS or higher. (Similarly, I have defined a player with a .900 OPS or greater as a super-star.)

I'm sure I'll catch a little flack from some on the site, as not all .800 OPS'ers are built the same -- for example, OBP is likely much more important than SLG. That said, an .800 OPS is an .800 OPS, and for a team that's only featured four guys over the last three years to have topped that mark (Callaspo, Sanders, Aviles, and DeJesus), we should be ecstatic if we can add two or three more names to the list, no matter how that OPS was arrived at.

To answer #2, I decided to look at commonalities between all of the players that managed to cross both the .800 OPS and .900 OPS thresholds over the last nine years. What I found was a melange of different playing types, ages, positions, and backgrounds. Some of the guys on the list were perennial all-stars (Pujols, A-Rod, etc.), some guys who were rookie sensations (Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez, Evan Longoria), and some were guys that seemed to come out of nowhere (Russell Branyan, Nelson Cruz, Jack Cust, Ryan Ludwick, Raul Ibanez.)

It was this last group, the Late Bloomers, that intrigued me the most -- with little exception, the majority of these players had been in the league for a few years, perhaps sporting a decent minor league pedigree, but never showing enough at the major league level to warrant extended playing time.

Despite the seeming disparity in player profiles, after a bit of digging, I was a bit surprised how easy it was to spot future all-stars. They all had the same thing in common -- and I was even more surprised that I had never come across this idea previously, even though it intuitively made sense. Maybe this has been explored and discussed countless places before, maybe it''s already so obvious to the majority of baseball fans that it doesn't even warrant discussion, even among casual observers of the game. But this discovery was new to me, so there's likely one or two of you that will find this at least a little interesting.

So what was the common thread?

Basically, there were two central precepts at play here. Which leads to Rule #1:

Rule 1: The first 600 at bats in a player's career don't
matter...

After looking at the career statistics of all 100+ players who had managed to post an OPS of .800 or greater over the 2000 - 2009 seasons, one thing proved to be true. No matter how poorly they had done in their initial 600 at bats (even if spread across several seasons), it had little to no bearing on how they would perform later on. This was almost universally true for all of the future all-stars, with only a handful of exceptions (roughly 6 - 7 %) which I'll get into later.

Here are but a few examples of how the first 600 at bats are irrelevant:

Jermaine Dye
1996 ATL 292 at bats OPS .763
1997 KC 263 at bats OPS .653
Career OPS .830

Mike Sweeney
1996 KC 165 at bats OPS .770
1997 KC 240 at bats OPS .668
1998 KC 282 at bats OPS .728
Career OPS .854

Hideki Matsui
2003 NY 623 at bats OPS .788
Career OPS .847

Raul Ibanez
1997 SEA 26 at bats OPS .500
1998 SEA 98 at bats OPS .699
1999 SEA 209 at bats OPS .734
2000 SEA 140 at bats OPS .630
Career OPS .829

Adam Lind
2007 TOR 290 at bats OPS .678
2008 TOR 326 at bats OPS .755
2009 TOR 269 at bats OPS .915

The list literally goes on and on, but I think you get the idea. Whether you chalk up this phenomenon to small sample sizes or as a "necessary adjustment period" to major league pitching -- the fact is, you shouldn't dismiss a player based on his first 600 at bats, particularly if the player has shown a tendency to hit well in the minors. What's sort of interesting is that age really doesn't play a factor -- it's mainly a function of opportunity.

Another cool example is Casey Blake, who is OPS'ing over .881 right now. Here's his first 6 years in the majors:

1999 .677 OPS
2000 .646 OPS
2001 .746 OPS (NY) .521 OPS (BAL)
2002 .521 OPS
2003 .723 OPS

Blake was 26 years old when he logged his first ML at bat, and it wasn't until age 30 when he got extended playing time in 2003 (557 at bats). It would have been very easy to write him off as a scrub based on those pitiful numbers. One thing to realize is that he had only logged just a shy over 600 at bats from 1999 - 2003 (including his 557 at bats in 2003). So, according to the 600 rule (which I am stretching a bit here, if only slightly), you shouldn't give up on him. And true to the rule, he's OPS'd over .800 in 3 of the 6 years since.

Of course, there are a few instances where common sense dictates that it is indeed okay to give up on the player, like with Tony Pena, Jr., where there's nothing in either his major league or minor league profile that would suggest he would ever hit better than he does currently.

Considering the mildly disappointing starts to both Gordon and Butler's careers, (and "disappointment" is of course subjective and debatable), this was encouraging news, as their sub .800 OPS's seemed to belie what was their true talent. But then I discovered rule #2:

Rule #2: ...But the first 1200 at bats do matter.

Almost without fail, everyone who has posted a .800+ OPS season over the last ten years has posted an OPS of .800 within at least one 500-600 at bat stretch during his initial 1200 at bats.

Among all of the players who had managed an .800 OPS in a single season from 2000 - 2009, about 93% had posted at least an .800 OPS in one of their first two seasons (or equivalent). For those players who had managed to make it to superstar level (.900 OPS or higher), the baseline was an OPS of about .850 OPS during one or both of their first two seasons.

What's interesting here is that this was true across the board, regardless of position. For example, you may have often heard, like I had, that catchers take a long time to develop.

It is for this reason that for years I have waited patiently for John Buck to blossom into an all-star caliber hitter. He had often showed flashes, he had the build, but he just hadn't put it all together. Had I applied the 1200 rule after his first 1200 or so at bats, I would have realized earlier that my waiting was in vain.

The simple truth is, if a player is ever going to hit .800 OPS or greater over a sustained period of time, the proof of their ability to do so should be evident within their first two years. A brief look at all of the premiere hitting catchers (Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, Jorge Posada, Javy Lopez, Joe Mauer) over the last ten years has proven this to be true. It didn't take them years to adjust -- they basically came up and started hitting -- if not in year one, in year two.

In other words -- if you're good enough to start hitting, you're going to do it right away, otherwise it's not going to happen.

Of course, sometimes it does happen. Sometimes a guy who fails to post an .800 in their first 1200 at bats goes on to have an excellent career.

Ironically enough, this was the case with our own Carlos Beltran (though he logged a .791 in his first full year), and there are a handful of other guys to which this applies (Gary Sheffield, Luis Gonzalez, and Sammy Sosa are among some of the more notable guys) These counter-examples are rare, and even in most of the cases, if they didn't clear .800 in their first 1200, they did it in their first 1800. And while it's probably a little unfair to note, some of these guys were heavily rumored, if not confirmed, to have used steroids, so there's at least the possibility that they've skewed the results.

The corollary is the other type of guy who posts an .800 season without having one in his first 1200 at bats. These are the flukes -- the Edgar Renteria's, the Juan Encarnacion's, or the Shea Hillebrand's. At most, they will likely only provide one or two more .800 OPS seasons, but it is usually a crapshoot when and where that will occur.

While some of these players may add value to their team defensively, the odds are very heavily against them repeating their .800+ seasons, so astute general managers will know not to rely on them to be offensive sparkplugs for their respective teams.

Not so astute general managers end up spending millions of dollars on guys like Gary Matthews, Jr., and to a lesser extent, Jose Guillen. While the Rule of 1200 may tell you who will become a star, it's just as likely, if not more likely, to tell you who won't become a star (or maintain their current stardom.)

What does this mean for the Royals?

What's sort of unique about the four players I mentioned at the top of this agonizingly long post was that they all could go either way with this, depending on how generous you feel.

Right now, only Aviles is in the running for future all-star, under these two rules. Although of the four, he's the one I feel least likely to actually be able to capitalize. Most of Aviles' offensive value was tied up in a very unsustainable high batting average. It would appear his .800+ OPS of 2008 was a fluke, but considering the current state of the Royals, it wouldn't hurt to give him a season to prove otherwise.

Callaspo's probably in the best shape under this scenario, provided he's able to keep on his current pace. His minor league numbers provide a lot of reason for optimism here, too.

As for Gordon and Butler, it's difficult to get too excited. A year ago, I saw a future George Brett and David Ortiz. Now, and especially in light of the trend I've seen among the players I surveyed, it seems more likely we're looking at something like Shea Hillebrand and John Olerud. Not terrible, but certainly a let down considering the hype surrounding these players.

Of course, Butler still has about 400 at bats remaining of his 1200, so if he picks things up, we can begin to dream a little again. And even if he doesn't manage, he's still young, but if this study proved anything, it doesn't matter what age people are when they get their chance -- they'll either hit right away or they won't. And if they don't, there's little reason to expect they'll start doing it later.

Poll

What else does this mean?

It's not too late to bring back Justin Huber

141 votes

141 votes | Poll has closed

Minor League Recap: 2008 Omaha Royals

marbotty — Sat, 02 May 2009 12:01:03 -0000

It must be fun to be a baseball fan in a town that houses a AAA affiliate. Not only do you get to enjoy the highest quality baseball outside of the majors (or Japan), you also get to watch a wide array of players take the field.

For example, had you picked a random Omaha Royals game to watch last season, you would have had the pleasure of seeing a hodgepodge of different players: rising stars like Mike Aviles, Billy Butler, and Kila Kaaihuie, retreads like Gookie Dawkins and Angel Berroa, AAAA tweener-types like Shane Costa and Damon Hollins, and a bunch of guys like Ryan Shealy and Brayan Pena, who don't really belong in the minors but who also don't have a roster spot open for them on the parent club.

On top of that, you get awesome promotions that are usually too risque or too bizarre to be considered acceptable at the major league level. Take this year's bobblehead promotion.

If you go watch a game on bobblehead night in Kauffman, you'd expect to receive either a current player or a former allstar like George Brett or Amos Otis. In Omaha? Warren Mother Flipping Buffett. Why? Because the guy could rake, that's why.

Career OPS: .931

Or how about this other promotion. Ever heard of Todd Balduf? I hadn't, but if you look at the Omaha Royals stat sheet from last year, you'll see he logged exactly one game and only one at bat. What was the point? I'm guessing it was "Moonlight Graham" night at Omaha Stadium, and one lucky fan got picked from the stands to get a minor league at bat. At least, that's what should have happened, and if this promotion ever gets greenlighted, I want credit for it.

2008 TEAM RECAP

The O Royals went a disappointing 63-81, which was the 3rd lowest win total among the 16 teams in the Pacific League. On the plus side, nobody gives a squirt.

TOP 5 HITTING PERFORMANCES

1. Kila Kaihuee, 1B
114 At Bats, 11 HRs, .316/.439/.640, 24BB, 26K

Kila was sort of the minor league equivalent of Manny Ramirez in that he ended up being the best hitter on two different teams. Of course, in Kila's case, the two teams were NW Arkansas and Omaha, so he didn't get quite as much press on the subject as Manny.

Even though he had a higher walk rate than anyone on the team and averaged one homerun per 10 at bats, (which was actually better than Manny), Kila didn't get the call to the majors until the very tail end of the 2008 season. You would have thought Dayton would have been more inclined to call him up sooner considering:

1. An ineffective Ross Gload was manning 1B, and
2. Aviles had a monster season once he was called up to replace an equally ineffective Tony Pena, Jr.

But this was Ross Mother Flipping Gload we were talking about, so I can understand Moore's reluctance. Let's also not lose sight of the fact that there's nothing about Kíla's name that would either imply or rhyme with an explosion, so there's no way he could have been as big of a fan favorite as Ross. (Wait, what about a "Kila-ton" bomb? Oh, well.)

2. Mike Aviles, 2B/SS
214 At Bats, 10 HRs, .336/.370/.631, 11BB, 26K

If you were unfamiliar with the Royals and were just looking at this year's stats, you might wonder what the big deal is about Mike Aviles. In fact, you might think he sucks.

But last year was a different story, and Aviles was arguably our best player last season. Of course, his story began in Omaha, where, like Kila, he manhandled Pacific League pitching. While Aviles only hit homeruns at half the rate that Kila did, his slugging percentage was nearly identical, thanks in big part to a higher batting average and a much higher doubles rate.

Where he lagged behind Kila the most was in his ability to draw walks, only garnering one every five games or so. Critics/cynics who believed Mike's success was unsustainable pointed first at this low walk rate as evidence of a future decline. So far, those concerns have had merit, as Aviles has been terrible.

But we'll always love Aviles for 2008. And eventually, that love will turn to annoyance, then disdain, and then sheer, gutwrenching hatred... much like it did with Berroa in the years following his rookie of the year season. Speaking of which...

3. Angel Berroa, SS
189 At Bats, 10 HRs, .291/.323/.519, 8BB, 25K

Didn't see that coming did you?

Okay, I'm cheating a bit here, as either Butler or Shealy should be in this spot. But that would have ruined my cool Aviles-Berroa segue, and I just couldn't have that.

The other thing is that there's a sentimentality factor in play here -- nobody expected Berroa to ever perform well again, and that sort of underdog-ness made me root for him more than I normally would for another player. (Am I glad he's with another team? Yes. I'm not crazy.)

So while his raw stats don't compare to Butler and Shealy's, the fact that he performed well despite the fact that nobody believed in him, or even really liked him, and the fact that it helped with my literary transition, Berroa gets the nod at #3. Also, it gives me an excuse to post this photo:

Either the Dodgers appreciate Angel as much as we do, or this was the most poorly-conceived Budweiser ad ever. (via www.pe.com)

4. Billy Butler, 1B
101 At Bats, 5 HRs, .337/.417/.564, 14BB, 7K

Hey! It's Billy Butler! No big surprise here, and nothing really exciting to write about that nobody hasn't written before. (How's that for a triple negative?)

5. Ryan Shealy, 1B
400 At Bats, 22 HRs, .283/.376/.503, 55BB, 93K

It's sort of mind boggling that Shealy still doesn't have a spot on the 25 man roster, considering the success he had for half a season in the pros and two years in the minors, and considering what was at the time a rather large bounty required to bring him over. It's also mind boggling because other guys that Dayton brought in via trade all got more of an extended shot than Ryan (Pena, Gathright, Gload), despite all having a worse pedigree and requiring less in the trade. Sure, he sucked in 2007, but so did those guys, and they all got to keep playing.

I have an irrational man crush on Mike Jacobs, but I would have been perfectly happy to let Shealy man the 1B/DH position in 2009. Having Nunez in the fold might have also spared us the pain of acquiring Kyle Farnsworth, and maybe that extra $4 million spent on Jacobs could have spent on something to spare us the pain of Sidney Ponson. But there's no point dwelling on this now. The only real question is which of Shealy or Kaiihue gets traded first.

Other Notables: Todd Balduf

TOP 5 PITCHING PERFORMANCES

1. Joel Peralta
18.2 IP, 0 GS, 0.00 ERA, 19K, 6BB

Sure, he was tater-ific while pitching in KC last season, but he was downright nasty as a reliever in Omaha. A 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio, over a strikeout an inning, and not a single runner allowed in 18 innings qualifies as a success at any level. His struggles in KC last year was a bit perplexing, as he hadn't ever shown before such a high propensity for giving up dingers, either at the minor or major league level. Let's hope he can get his career back on track, as he was a solid pitcher prior to last season's meltdown.

2. Jorge De La Rosa
22 IP, 4 GS, 1.64 ERA, 23K, 7BB

Here's another name you probably didn't expect to see on this list, but really, it's pretty typical of his career. In what must be maddening for GMs, Jorge shows flashes of brilliance, only to eventually turn into a pumpkin once given enough exposure to ML hitting.

Colorado's giving him a starting role again this season, and I'm sure he'll last another month in the pros before eventually getting demoted, traded, or waived, only to be picked up by another team in search of a reclamation project. But next time it will work!

3. Carlos Rosa
50.2 IP, 11GS, 4.09 ERA, 44K, 12BB

I still don't understand why Rosa isn't considered the better prospect of him and Dan Cortes. Of course, I'm not looking at this from a scouting standpoint, and yes, Cortes has the advantage (or disadvantage) of being younger. But from a purely statistical perspective, Rosa has easily bested Cortes in pure performance each year they've been in the system.

Rosa had one of the best K:BB ratios on the squad, and while his ERA wasn't that impressive, he did do a good job of limiting baserunners and avoiding homeruns. He's back in Omaha again this year, and thus far he's dominating, with a 3.27 ERA, 11 K's against 3 BBs in only 11 innings pitched. Cortes, meanwhile, is sporting a 6.23 ERA, and 1.73 WHIP, although his peripherals suggest he's pitched much better than those numbers suggest.

4. and 5. Kyle Davies/Devon Lowery
57.2 IP, 11 GS, 2.03 ERA, 38K, 21BB (Davies)
59.1 IP, 0 GS, 2.12 ERA, 43K, 30BB (Lowery)

Davies gets a slight nod over Lowery -- their numbers were very similar -- due to the fact that he was starting and due to a better walk rate. But their other numbers, hits, homeruns, innings pitched, strikeouts, and runs allowed were almost identical. If Lowery had put up these numbers as a starter maybe we would have found our replacement for Ponson in the rotation. (It should be noted here that Jeff Fulchino actually had superior K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 than both Lowery and Davies, but he also gave up twice as many runs).

Other Notables: Luke Hochevar, Greg Atencio, Jeff Fulchino

Curtis Granderson Blogs about the New Kauffman Stadium for Some Reason

marbotty — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 18:43:52 -0000

Curtis Granderson Blogs about the New Kauffman Stadium for Some Reason

Not sure what to make of this, actually.

Minor League Recap: 2008 NW Arkansas Naturals

marbotty — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 14:29:30 -0000

2008 must have been a bittersweet year for Kansas-based fans of minor league baseball. On the one hand, the Royals organization saw spectacular performances from many of our young hitters and pitchers, and some clubs even managed to bring home an elusive division championship.

On the other hand, 2008 marked the departure of the AA affiliate from Wichita, as GM Dayton Moore relocated the team to Springdale, Arkansas, citing poor attendance and antiquated facilities as the reason behind the move. It made sense from a business perspective - relocation would bring in a new fan base and expose the Royals to new geographical region, as well as allow the players to play in a brand new ballpark designed by the KC-based firm responsible for gems like Camden Yards and Progressive Field. It also didn’t hurt that owner David Glass lives close by. Still, the loss of the team must have stung dearly for the 1,000 or so diehard fans who managed to show up to each game.

Those fans may have felt vindicated a bit by what happened next, as subsequent decisions related to the creation of the new team incited confusion and stirred up more than a little controversy.

First was the non-traditional nomenclature -- rather than calling the team the "Springdale Naturals," ownership opted for the more opaque "Northwest Arkansas Naturals", in what was most likely a cynical attempt at trying to lure in unsuspecting fans of early 90’s rap. (Straight outta Springdale!)

Second, and more damning, was the choice of the team mascot, "Strike." A Bigfoot/Caveman/Hillbilly hybrid, the new mascot immediately became one of the scariest in the minor leagues, famous for its taste for human flesh.

RIP Elaine Delphy (1956-2008) Cause of Death: between-inning "entertainment"

On the field, the 2008 Naturals performed valiantly -- winning 75 games while amassing 64 losses. As with every Kansas City minor league team last year, the Naturals pitching was responsible for their success, as they posted the second lowest team ERA (4.15) in the league.

Also, as with every Kansas City minor league team last year, their hitting sucked -- they were second to last in runs scored, outpacing only the Arkansas Travelers. (Arkansas Travelers? Suddenly the move to Arkansas makes no sense at all.) Aside from a few luminaries, the Naturals were every bit as anemic at the plate as the rest of their Royals affiliate brethren.

TOP 5 HITTING PERFORMANCES

1. Kila Ka’ahuie, 1B
287 At Bats, 26 HRs, .314/.463/.624, 80BB, 41K

Hawaiian Punch, Kila Monster, That Hawaiian Guy… whatever you call him, the guy can rake. Kila’s performance last season didn’t just lead the Naturals, it was among the best in all of minor league baseball. The .463 OBP was about 40 to 50 points higher than any other hitter in the minors, and was second to only Chipper Jones (.470) in all of baseball. He actually walked twice as often as he struck out last season, which was outstanding.

It wasn’t just about plate discipline either -- Kila hit for power, as well, as he led the team in homeruns and slugging. There really aren’t enough superlatives available to describe his season. He was naturally rewarded for his big year by getting the opportunity to repeat it again in AAA Omaha.

2. Juan Richardson, 1B
494 At Bats, 16 HRs, .296/.370/.474, 54BB, 93K

Hey, did you know there was another 1B that played for NW Arkansas last year? Me, neither. Kila’s monstrous year overshadowed Juan’s strong performance, but he still managed to lead the team in one category -- doubles, of which he hit 36. He was also rewarded for his success with his second straight Texas League All Star game appearance. Unfortunately, due to his age (28), his prospectdom is virtually nil. Factor in that he’s originally from the Dominican Republic, there’s a chance he’s actually about ready to start collecting social security payments.

3. Irving Falu, RF
362 At Bats, 5 HRs, .301/.367/.384, 38BB, 31K

Falu really only did a couple of things well last year, but he did them very well. He hit for average, cracking the Texas League top 10 in that category with a .301 avg, and he showed off a pretty good eye, with 38 BB’s against just 31 K’s. Had Kila not crushed him in that category, it probably would have seemed a lot more impressive.

Falu didn’t hit for much power and didn’t display much speed, as his .378 SLG and 9 CS (against 11 SB) demonstrate, so feel free to contest this ranking. Falu will continue to see time in the outfield at 2B in 2009 with the Naturals.

4. Cory Aldridge, DH
167 At Bats, 10 HRs, .269/.361/.497, 25BB, 37K

Cory hit homeruns at almost a good a clip as Kila, with 10 in just 167 at bats. He was also a Texas League All-Star… in 2005, which says a lot about whether or not we’ll be seeing him in the majors any time soon. He’ll turn 30 this season, so 2009 may end up being his swan song. He was promoted to Omaha, at least, so barring any trades and assuming injuries to Jacobs, Butler, Shealy, Kila, and likely Guillen, Costa, and Maier, you may get to see him playing in Kansas City this summer.

5. Brian McFall, 1B/OF
348 At Bats, 18 HRs, .241/.329/.454, 39BB, 103K

McFall’s one of those guys who performs well enough to get promoted but never quite well enough to generate serious buzz about him, and his season last year was no different. It was pretty good, but not great, as he hit a fair number of doubles and homeruns, and walked at a decent rate. He didn’t hit well for average, which depressed his overall rate stats.

The future’s a bit murky for Brian. He’s stuck with Shealy and Kila ahead of him in Omaha, and Jacobs and Butler up in KC, so advancement looks unlikely. He’s always hit for pretty good power, and there were several people before the season started last year who viewed him as good as or better a prospect than Kila, so there’s a chance something could click for him. Odds are that his chance will come with another organization, if at all.

TOP 5 PITCHING PERFORMANCES

1. Carlos Rosa
45 IP, 8 GS, 1.20 ERA, 42 K, 7 BB

Rosa may have had a bit harder time in Omaha, but he dominated Texas League hitters last year -- with just under a strikeout an inning over 8 starts. While Dan Cortes in considered the better pitching prospect, Carlos has done a good job of outperforming him thus far in their short careers. Carlos also had a nifty stint in the majors, when he struck out 3 in 3 innings, with 0 walks and just one run.

2. Tim Hamulack
23 IP, 0 GS, 1.96 ERA, 23 K, 1 BB

Hamulack quietly put together a great year for NWA in 2008, so quietly that I didn’t even know he existed until his name started popping up last month in spring training exhibition games. His K/9 was one of the best on the team, and his 23:1 strikeout to walk ratio must have made fellow teammate Rowdy Hardy feel nostalgic for his early part of his career.

3. Chris Hayes
65.2 IP, 0 GS, 1.64 ERA, 39 K, 13 BB

As a submariner, Hayes evokes memories of Royals great Dan Quisenberry. As a brainy sabermetric-friendly blogger, Hayes calls to mind (now) fellow minor leaguer Brian Bannister. He didn't strike out too many batters this season (he had a low 5.3 K/9), but he made up for it by minimizing the number of walks and homeruns allowed. He's the kind of pitcher you root for, and because of his unorthodox style, he's the kind of pitcher who you won't be surprised to see gracing the Powder Blues in a couple of years.

4. Chris Nicoll
43.2 IP, 1 GS, 3.09 ERA, 55 K, 8 BB

Nicoll was once considered one of the top Royals pitching prospects, having started off his career with strong seasons at Idaho Falls and Burlington in the rotation. Unfortunately, he got absolutely shelled in 2007 at Wilmington, and it wasn't just cosmetic, as he declined in all of his peripheral stats. An injured quadriceps may have contributed to his fall.

Nicoll was converted into a reliever after his fateful season, and seems to have gotten things back on track. He sported the top K/9 for the Naturals this season (11.3), while being very stingy with the walks, as well.

5. Dusty Hughes
52.2 IP, 4 GS, 2.91 ERA, 43 K, 16 BB

It could have been Jarod Plummer or Daniel Cortes in this spot, had the latter cut down on his walks and had the former cut down on his homeruns allowed. Hughes is another guy like Nicoll that was considered one of the better minor league pitchers for the Royals, until Moore took over from Baird and injected the system with a slew of young talent.

Hughes also spent some time in Omaha last year, but failed to match his success in Springdale. He'll get a chance again in 2009 to see if his promotion was warranted.

We must trade for League Leading Homerun Hitter Jeff Francouer!

marbotty — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 11:11:52 -0000

We must trade for League Leading Homerun Hitter Jeff Francouer!

Now, before it's too late

Minor League Recap: 2008 Wilmington Blue Rocks

marbotty — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 09:22:42 -0000

When I first proposed this series to Will some time back, there was one team above all others that I was excited to write about... the Wilmington Blue Rocks.

It's not because Wilmington had a particularly memorable season, and it's not because they had particularly exciting prospects. The reason, really, had nothing at all to do with baseball, and everything to do with the fact that the Blue Rocks feature no fewer than 5 mascots (6, if you count Bon Jovi.)

A dancing celery stick AND a guy with french fries for hair. Why?

Like most Royals affiliates last year, the Blue Rocks ended the season with a losing record. However, based on their runs scored (591) vs. runs allowed (590) on the year, one would have expected at least a .500 season out of them, and really, they just missed that by a game. Their 69-71 record was still good enough for second place in their division.

in the end, the Rocks's record was basically inconsequential, as the Potomac Nationals and Myrtle Beach Pelicans had a stranglehold over the Carolina League, dominating in all facets of the game.

To the Blue Rocks' credit, they did best the Nationals and Pelicans in pitching, with a league low ERA. However, they also featured the league's worst offense. This should not be cause for alarm, however, as the Blue Rocks find themselves in this position basically year after year, as they play in an extreme pitcher's park, which usually suppresses their ability to hit for power. The 2008 Blue Rocks attempted to compensate for this by drawing a fair number of walks, and having an unusually high number of stolen base attempts. While they failed to break the record, they did lead the league, ending up with 258 swipes, which was almost double the runner-up in that category. All that proves, though, is that stolen bases don't necessarily help you score more runs.

TOP 5 HITTING PERFORMANCES

1. Cody Strait, RF
196 At Bats, 13 HRs, .292/.362/.571, 19BB, 40K, 11 SB, 2 CS

To tell you the truth, I had never heard of Cody Strait until I started doing research for this post.   Part of that can be attributed to the fact that Cody hadn't joined the Royals organization until midway through the 2008 season, having been drafted and developed at that point with Cincinnatti.

The other part can be attributed to the fact that Cody, unfortunately, is a bit of a non-prospect. He'll turn 26 this May, and until his stint with Wilmington this past season, had never cleared an .800 OPS in any year since his first season in rookie ball.

Considering that the Royals already had two capable right fielders on the squad, it didn't make a whole lot of sense to bring Cody into Wilmington. A part of me can't help but wonder if his acquisition was solely to improve their chances at setting the SB record, as Cody already had on his resume a season in which he stole 49 bases.   Whatever the case, he had a great season for the Blue Rocks, leading the team in HRs and OPS in just a fraction of the at-bats of some of his teammates.

2. Paulo Orlando, RF
522 At Bats, 12 HRs, .261/.310/.421, 19BB, 40K, 29 SB, 13 CS

The line above is a bit misleading -- Orlando put up most of those numbers while he was with the White Sox organization.   Some of you may remember Orlando as the prospect we got in return in the Horacio Ramirez trade, and based on last season's numbers, it would appear we made out pretty well on the deal.  Orlando appears to have a decent power/speed combo as he would have been second on the team in homeruns and also led the league in triples, with 14.

He also led the league in at-bats, which diminishes those other achievements, but only a little bit. Most encouraging for Royals fans is that he actually hit a lot better with the Royals than he did at any other time during his career, with a .254/.325/.507 line.

Interesting fast fact about Paulo Orlando -- he's actually from the town of Sao Paulo, Brazil. I can't think of too many players (or any, actually), who have the distinction of sharing the same name with his hometown.    Add in the fact that he was signed by scout Orlando Santana, and it gets creepy. Well, not really.

3. Joe Dickerson, RF
310 At Bats, 5 HRs, .297/.376/.442, 31BB, 48K, 24 SB, 14 CS

While teammate Derrick Robinson's typically been considered the better prospect of the two, Dickerson's the one that's actually produced. Dickerson's name still gets mentioned as one of the top hitting prospects in the organization, but he's far, far behind the likes of guys like Moustakas and Hosmer, and has never come close to cracking anybody's Top 10 list, so that's more of an indictment of the Royals' ability to develop hitting than it is a compliment to Dickerson.

It's hard to dislike Joe's 2008 season. Like fellow RF's Strait and Orlando, Joe showed a good combination of power and speed -- he didn't crack double figures in HRs, but he did have a healthy number of triples (10) and doubles (10).   It's hard to say what trajectory Dickerson's prospectdom is on at this point, but it shouldn't surprise you if he follows Mitch Maier's career path to 4th outfielder-dom.

4. Derrick Robinson, CF
497 At Bats, 0 HRs, .245/.316/.322, 51BB, 97K, 62 SB, 17 CS

If you find yourself in a minor league fantasy baseball league this season, and the only offensive stat you count is stolen bases, then there's a good chance Derrick Robinson will be a first rounder.

Other than that, it's all projection at this point.   Baseball America loves his speed, and have named him the Royals Best Athlete two years in a row.   At some point you hope he develops another facet to his game, as he's still stuck at 3 career homeruns and hasn't displayed much in the way of plate discipline (although he did cut down on his strikeouts this year while almost doubling the number of walks he took.)

Robinson was the youngest guy on the team (20), so there's a chance he'll have a Kenny Lofton or Carlos Beltran-esque leap forward this year.   In the meantime, he makes the top 5 list by virtue of his impressive, league-leading stolen base total.

5. Jeff Bianchi, 2B
396 At Bats, 10 HRs, .255/.290/.442, 20BB, 95K, 13 SB, 4 CS

It's hard to believe Bianchi's still only 21, as he was in the same draft class as Alex Gordon, who already seems to have been with the big league club for years.

Bianchi's had a bit of a weird journey through the minors thus far: he was crushing rookie league pitching as an 18 and 19 year old (to the tune of an 1.200+ OPS), before suffering a season ending injury in 2006.   He struggled mightily in his return with the Burlington Bees in 2007, as it looked like his injury sapped all of his power and perhaps permanently derailed his career.

That's why Bianchi's season last year, although only a modest success, was so encouraging. He saw a major spike in his slugging numbers (he led the team in all extra base hits), which offset the disappointment in what appeared to be a tiny step back in his plate discipline.   We'll see if he can pick up where he left off before his injury in 2009.

Honorable Mentions: Brad Correll, Kyle Mertins

TOP 5 PITCHING PERFORMANCES

1. Blake Wood
57.1 IP, 10 GS, 2.67 ERA, 63 K, 15 BB

Wood led all Blue Rocks starters in K/9, and was also the team leader in WHIP (0.82). Not suprisingly, Wood is also the only player on the team to crack Baseball America's top 10 Royals Prospects (#10).

Wood was promoted mid-year to NW Arkansas, where things got a little more challenging for him (5.29 ERA, 18 GS). His peripheral numbers were still pretty good, so his troubles there can be chalked up to adjustments and/or small sample sizes.

2. Henry Barrera
57.2 IP,  0 GS, 2.81 ERA, 78K, 24 BB

Barrera provided a Soria-like presence in the bullpen, leading the team in K/9 (12.2), while also being second best on the team in allowing homeruns, with a paltry .3 allowed per nine innings pitched.

He did walk quite a few batter per inning, but more than made it up for it with his dominance in the other areas.   Best of all, he was on the low-end of the age spectrum -- he will still be just 23 when he starts this year in NW Arkansas.

3 - 5 ????

This is a bit of a copout, I know, but there were too many good performances to make a choice.   While Wood and Barrera's performances seemed head and shoulders above their counterparts, one can legitimately make the case that seven or eight pitchers are deserving of these last three spots.   The pitching really was that good for Wilmington last year, which gives you hope that the Royals won't have to resort to inserting guys like Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez into the rotation in a few years.

Here's a quick glimpse of guys worthy for these final spots:

Everett Teaford          3.80 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 1.25 WHIP
Mario Santiago          3.43 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 1.34 WHIP
Matt Kniginyzky          3.57 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 1.30 WHIP
Edward Cegarra       4.67 ERA, 5.0 K/9, 1.20 WHIP (19 yrs old)
Greg Holland            3.42 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 1.25 WHIP
Aaron Hartsock        3.46 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 1.24 WHIP
Ben Swaggerty          2.66 ERA, 11.0 K/9, 1.42 WHIP
Gil De La Vara           3.65 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 1.02 WHIP
Chris Nicoll                2.91 ERA, 10.2 K/9, 1.13 WHIP

I guess if I were pressed to choose the top 3 out of that bunch, it would have to be Nicoll, Holland, De La Vara, but I could easily be convinced otherwise. The important thing to note was that the pitching was awesome.

Thoughts?

Minor League Recap: 2008 Burlington Bees

marbotty — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 11:14:41 -0000

It’s easy to see why 2008 was such a banner year for the Bees, as they took home a championship and also featured arguably the league’s best hitter and pitcher. I guess that shouldn’t come across as rocket surgery, really, as there exists a pretty strong correlation between having the best players and winning a bunch of games. Still, if you’re lucky enough to succeed in both areas, I would imagine it gives you a smile and a warm fuzzy feeling in your gut. (Or maybe that’s the gin? Fess up, drunkie.)

Burlington winning the league championship provides an added bonus for Royals fans, as it makes it easier to tell the difference between the Burlington Bees (they were good!) and the Burlington Royals (they were like a dog‘s breakfast!) Now we just need to find a way to determine where in the world Burlington is, as the town’s name is as ubiquitous as Springfield -- by my count, something like 46 states in the union feature a Burlington, (48 if you include coat factories.)

The Bees served as sort of the flagship affiliate for the Royals last year, as they excelled in all areas of the game. They had guys who struck out a bunch of people, guys who hit a lot of homeruns, guys who hit for average, guys who walked a lot, guys with low ERAs, and, of course, guys who stole a lot of bases. This makes it difficult to whittle down the top 5 pitching and hitting performances of 2008.

This also, thankfully, makes selecting the top performances an enjoyable exercise. This wasn’t the case with some of the previous affiliates, where the performances suggested a future for the Royals reminiscent of some sort of post-apocalyptic Road Warrior society, where nobody can get the ball out of the infield or walk or strike people out from the mound.

Okay, that’s a terrible analogy. But the point is that the future looked bleak. With the Burlington Bees, though, the future of the organization looks positively utopian. It’s all puppies and rainbows.

TOP 5 HITTING PERFORMANCES

1. Mike Moustakas, SS/3B
496 At Bats, 22 HRs, .272/.337/.468, 43BB, 86K

To build suspense, I probably should list these in ascending order, from worst performance to best, but I wouldn’t be surprising anyone by selecting Moustakas at the top spot, so might as well get it out of the way.

At first glance, Moustakas’ line looks a bit pedestrian, as he hit just .272/.337/.458 over the course of the season, which didn’t even crack the top 20 in the league in OPS. That’s a bit deceiving, however, and to fully appreciate his season, you must take a couple of factors into account.

First, Moustakas’ numbers were depressed by a miserable April in which he hit like a arthritic schoolgirl -- his .479 OPS during the month would be enough to make Tony Pena, Jr. blush. A .208 BABIP during the month certainly didn’t help matters.

Mike righted the ship after that, never failing to clear an .800 OPS in any month after April. And he had a monster, Lubanski-esque second half, with a MVP-caliber August in which he compiled 16 extra base hits in just 116 at bats, which earned him a .986 OPS during the month.

Second, Moustakas was one of the youngest players in the Midwest league, at just 19 years old. Of all the players under 20 years of age in the league, only three managed OPS’s over .800 (Dodgers OF Andrew Lambo, Reds SS/3B Neftali Soto, and Moustakas) one of which (Soto) seemed entirely dependent on batting average to do it. Most impressively, Moustakas hit 22 homeruns, which led the league in the category. Nobody under 22 cracked the top 5, which should give you an idea on why scouts and statisticians are so high on the guy.

2. Jason Taylor, 3B/1B
433 At Bats, 17 HRs, .242/.372/.418, 81BB, 97K

If you looked at the dearth of publicity on the guy, it might make you think he’s not considered much of a prospect. He really should be making more top prospect lists, when you consider his draft pedigree (2^nd rounder in 2006) and his pretty awesome performance in 2008. He was the league-leader in walks, took 4th in steals, and was tied for 5^th in homeruns -- all at a relatively young age of 20. One could make the case that Taylor had the #1 hitting performance for 2008.

So why the lack of buzz surrounding Taylor? It may have to do with the buzz Taylor has self-inflicted… he’ll be serving a 50 game suspension to start 2009 for violating the minor league drug policy. He had also faced some "disciplinary issues" for violating team rules in 2007, which resulted in his not playing for that entire year.

The team or the league won’t disclose the exact nature of the 2007 suspension, but since his most recent issue stems from recreational drug use rather than steroid abuse, it makes me feel more confident of his ability to rebound, if indeed he can stay clean. (Josh Hamilton comes to mind here.) If he can’t stay sober long enough to make it to the pros, I’m sure he’ll still make a pretty good one-hitter. Heh.

3. Kyle Martin, SS/3B
190 At Bats, 8 HRs, .316/.373/.537, 17BB, 40K

While Kyle was originally drafted as a SS, he played all over the diamond in 2008, splitting his time mainly between SS and 3B, but also logging time at 1B, 2B, and DH.

Martin led all Bees in OPS with .910, and had he been given enough at bats, there’s a chance he could have ended up with more doubles and homers than Moustakas, as he had about half the extra base hits as Moustakas in less than half the number of plate appearances.

Based on his college stats and draft slot, Kyle’s one of those guys who is unlikely to repeat this sort of performance at higher levels, so hopefully he enjoyed this season to the fullest, as it’s likely to be his peak. With all players in the minors, though, there’s always a chance his step forward is for real. Time will tell.

4. Nick Van Stratten, OF
139 At Bats, 1 HRs, .345/.400/.489, 12BB, 20K

The rankings get a little muddier after the top 3 performances, as about four or five guys could lay claim to the final to spots. I gave the edge here to Van Stratten, though, as he led the team in OBP and was third in the Midwest League in batting average (.345).

The problem here, though, was that Van Stratten’s performance is completely unsustainable. His .398 batting average on balls on play is plenty proof that his lofty numbers were more the result of good luck than any sort of skill set. Factor in his lack of power (only 1 homerun in 139 at bats) and his high GB% (57.9%), and it’s not hard to predict a giant plummet in numbers for Nick in 2009. So while performance-wise he gets the edge over guys like Johnny Giavotella or David Lough in 2008, his long-term prospects are a little more dubious.

5. Clint Robinson, 1B
379 At Bats, 17 HRs, .264/.333/.472, 33BB, 67K

Robinson isn’t really considered much of a prospect, but he has hit everywhere he’s played. While he didn’t slug as well as he did in 2007, when he had an impressive .593 SLG, he still displayed plenty of power during his time in Burlington. His 42 extrabase hits were third on the team, but he also had about 100 at bats fewer than the two guys ahead of him.

One of the obstacles standing in Robinson’s way of success is his clay feet. I don’t know what the methodology is for determining the speed ranking on BaseballCube.com, but Clint only scores a 1 out of 100. Not surpisingly, he was caught on all 3 stolen base attempts last season. He still managed three triples, so perhaps his speed is misleading, in a Prince Fielder sort of way. Or maybe he’s just adept a scoring the super-elusive ground rule triple.

Honorable Mentions: David Lough, Johnny Giavotella

TOP 5 PITCHING PERFORMANCES

1. Daniel Duffy
81.2 IP, 2.20 ERA, 102 K, 25 BB

The pitching performances were fantastic across the board for Burlington in 2008, but Duffy comes out on top by virtue of his eye-popping K/9 (11.24), a stellar a WHIP (.99), and a team-leading ERA. It might be easy to assume he was used as a reliever when you see his 102 strikeouts in 82 innings pitched, as that’s the sort of strikeout rate you’d expect from an elite closer or set-up man, not a starting pitcher, unless that starting pitcher is of the Jake Peavy/Tim Lincecum variety. Yet Duffy was indeed starting, notching 17 games in the rotation for the Bees. More impressively, he put up these numbers as a relatively young 19 years old, which in 2008, at least, made him sort of the pitching equivalent of Mike Moustakas.

Considering his youth, and the fact that he accrued these numbers exclusively as a starter, the case could be made that his was the best performance in the Midwest League in 2008. One could debate this, of course, but what is undeniable is that his future looks very bright.

2. Daniel Gutierrez
90 IP, 2.70 ERA, 104 K, 25 BB

If Duffy is #1, Gutierrez could rightfully be considered #1B, as his numbers nearly mirrored those of Duffy’s. His K/9, BB/9, IP, and ERA were all very, very close to Duffy’s. Sure, this Daniel was 2 years older, but it doesn’t make his year any less sparkling, and some actually consider Gutierrez the better prospect of the two. It will be interesting to see how he performs this season in Wilmington, where he’ll be playing in an even more extreme pitcher’s park/league. Okay, maybe it won’t be that interesting -- he’ll likely do very well.

3. Alexander Caldera
149.1 IP, 2.89 ERA, 120 K, 36 BB

What’s not to love about the Burlington rotation? Caldera was tops on the team in strikeouts (120) and games started (25), and was ahead of both Duffy and Gutierrez in BB/9. He was also older than the two pitchers, but that really shouldn’t be held against him.

Long term his star isn’t as bright as the two pitchers listed above or the two listed below, but one shouldn’t be surprised if he develops into a dependable 4^th or 5^th starter at the ML level if he doesn’t get untracked somewhere along the way.

4. Matthew Mitchell
116.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 77 K, 25 BB

Another 19 year old starter, Mitchell didn’t post a particularly great K/9, but he was, like Caldera, more adept at issuing the free pass, and he did a reasonable job of limiting base runners (and base scorers.) There wasn’t anything that screams FUTURE ALLSTAR about Mitchell’s season, but there’s very little to complain about here, either, except for maybe a slightly high homerun rate.

As with all people on this list, he’s proof that, if nothing else, Dayton Moore seems to know how to find good pitching in the draft. That Mitchell was a 14^th round pick is gravy.

5. Edward Cegarra
54 IP, 2.67 ERA, 53 K, 5 BB

We could have just listed the entire Burlington rotation in this top 5, as any other year Eduardo Paulino (3.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4:1 K:BB ratio) probably would have made the list. Cegarra gets the nod here though on account of his age (another 19 year old), his league leading BB rate, and a K:BB ratio that is absolutely wunderbar (over 10:1).

Cegarra’s walk rates evokes a young Rowdy Hardy, but by all accounts, Cegarra’s got considerably more zip on his fastball and registers as a bonafide prospect. It’s nice to see, and while Edward’s talents might end up being wasted in the pen, it will be an easier pill to swallow than when someone like Duffy or Mitchell gets shifted there later on, as seems to be the Royals front office modus operandi.

Honorable Mentions: Eduard Paulino, Henry Arias, and Pretty Much Every Other Bees Pitcher

Kansas - N. Dakota St Open Thread

marbotty — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 16:46:10 -0000

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) - Ben Woodside let his steely gaze relax for a second, and a sly smile crept across his face. His North Dakota State Bison, in this fifth and most special season, have officially stepped onto the national stage.

They're about to play the defending NCAA champions at a major league stadium just a four-hour drive from their campus on the prairie, and people all over the country who couldn't tell Bismarck from Fargo will be taking long lunches and logging onto their laptops to watch.

So far, so good, for Woodside. It looks like Collins is going to score 70 points this game, though.

Who the F$%# is that guy? A guide to the Unheralded Heroes of Spring Training

marbotty — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 09:16:39 -0000

The transplanted journeyman. The Rule 5 guy. The waiver-wire pickup. The non-roster invitee. Tug Hulett.

Each year, a motley collection of pitchers, hitters, and Tug Huletts descend upon Arizona with the singular purpose of earning (or sneaking) their way onto the Royals roster with a solid spring training performance. They may have varied backgrounds, but they all have one thing in common: you’ve never heard of them.

Look, I spend an inordinate amount of time following the Royals, and baseball in general, so when there’s a free agent signing or a minor league promotion, if I’m not intimately familiar with the player’s stats and history, at the very least I will be familiar with his name.

The one notable exception is during spring training, when teams are willing to try out an unknown amateur, or a player who may be a little better known (but known to be terrible,) with minimal risk to the organization. This adventurous approach to roster management is actually pretty refreshing for a sport that is steeped in tradition and which is usually dominated by conventional wisdom when it comes to building a team.

It’s this non-conventionality that leads to the team to try out has-beens, never-will-be’s, and the occasional country music superstar.

"I've got friends in low... minors"
via images.usatoday.com

It’s also the reason why there is always a small percentage of guys whose names make you scratch your head wondering who on earth they are. In an effort to make this spring training less confusing, here’s this year’s team of unknowns who have joined the Royals camp:

Tim Hamulack
Position: LHP
Obscurity Factor: 7
Number of Organizations Previously Played for: 6
Odds of Making 40 Man Roster: 20%

Apparently, Hamulack had already spent some time in the Royals system, which went completely under my radar. However, his time spent consisted of only 4 innings of Rookie ball, followed by a very short stint in AA NW Arkansas, so perhaps my overlooking him can be forgiven.

Hamulack was a 32nd round pick for Houston back in 1996. His shuttling
from organization to organization, and his horrendous 7.43 ERA in the majors, would likely lead one to believe he’s a terrible pitcher. That may be the case, but he’s actually had a pretty decent minor league career – 3.12 ERA with a decent K rate against relatively few walks.   My initial impression was that Hamulack is lot like a left-handed Joe Nelson, and after reviewing the stats, this is actually a pretty apt comparison.   Their situations were pretty similar, too – both would have been 31 when they got their shot with the Royals after having been given up on by a variety of other organizations. Nelson’s no world-beater, but he’s certainly a competent, low cost option out of the pen. Hamulack’s minor league numbers are better than Nelson’s almost all the way across the board, for what it’s worth.

Tommy Murphy
Position: OF
Obscurity Factor: 9
Number of Organizations Previously Played for: 5
Odds of Making 40 Man Roster: 3%

For every guy like Tim Hamulack, where you can see why he’s being given a shot during spring training, there’s a guy like Tommy Murphy, whose presence with the team defies all logic.   Tommy’s a converted shortstop, and he’s continued to hit like one since making the transition to centerfielder, with a .264/.318/.385 line in the minors. He doesn’t hit for power, doesn’t walk much, and plays a position that’s already pretty overcrowded, with Crisp, DeJesus, Maier and Duarte, all likely ahead of him on the depth chart. He does rank high in the speed department, with 23 SB against 4 CS last year.

Oh, wait, now it makes sense.

John Suomi
Position: C
Obscurity Factor 10
Number of Organizations Previously Played for: 4
Odds of Making 40 Man Roster: 7%

Unlike others on this list, Suomi has never tasted the majors, having spent his entire career in the minors, primarily with Oakland and Philadelphia. He’s hit reasonably well for a catcher in his 8 years on the farm, but he’s never really had an extended stay above AA, and he seems to hit progressively worse with each promotion.

He’s only really had one year (2004) in which he logged a full season’s worth of at bats, and to his credit he performed pretty well (.785 OPS, 41 BB) so perhaps his later struggles could be attributed to not getting enough playing time to get into a rhythm. Still, with the three headed beast that is Buck/Olivo/Brayan Pena, somebody (ore multiple somebodies) would have to get injured or traded for him to get a shot.

Luis Hernandez
Position: SS
Obscurity Factor 8
Number of Organizations Previously Played for: 2
Odds of Making 40 Man Roster: 25%

When I first came across Luis Hernandez when perusing the spring training boxscores, I didn’t initially believe he was all that obscure, having believed he was a middle infielder from the Twins. Turns out I was thinking about Luis Rodriguez (or Luis Rivas?) but I was still correct about the middle infielder part.

This wasn’t too hard of a call, as for some reason every Luis to play major league baseball seems to end up as a middle infielder or relief pitcher. (22 of the 52 Luis’s to make it to the ML level were middle infielders, 21 were pitchers – good for 83%.)

This (Former Atlanta Brave!) Luis doesn’t have any business making the roster, as he hasn’t shown the slightest inclination that he can hit (.600 OPS in the minors/majors.) There’s an unwritten law in baseball, though, that states that your ability to hit is inversely correlated with your defensive reputation (whether deserved or not). So, in other words, by virtue of being terrible at the plate, Luis must be wonderful with the glove.

Still, he might make the roster as Esteban German’s (and presumably Tony Pena’s) departure from the team leaves a bit of a void at utility infielder, Willie Bloomquist notwithstanding. The odds go up if Moore/Hillman make the unexplicable decision to hand Bloomquist the keys to 2B, as they would then probably want to stash a gloveman on the roster to handle SS and 1B duties to help protect late inning leads.

Top 5 Royals Spring Training All-Stars

marbotty — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 14:43:49 -0000

Top 5 Royals Spring Training All-Stars

Coco Crisp - 2nd in BB in ML (6)
Mike Jacobs - Tied 1st in HRs (3)
John Buck - 1.831 OPS (3rd) minimum 10 PA's
Miguel Olivo - 1.731 OPS (10th) minimum 7 PA's
Kyle Davies - 1.04 ERA (4th) minimum 8 IP