SB Nation User Blog: marbotty

Royals Decline Options on Crisp, Yabuta, and Olivo

marbotty — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 07:06:35 -0000

Royals Decline Options on Crisp, Yabuta, and Olivo

Dick Kaegel reports the Royals will likely be without Crisp, Yabuta or Olivo in 2010, as they've cut ties. Dayton's offseason house cleaning continues.

An Encouraging Billy Butler Comp

marbotty — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 10:47:01 -0000

Check out these two lines:

Billy Butler, Age 23 season: 140 games, 45 2B, 17 HRs, 45 BB, 90 Ks, .303/.355/.487
Player X, Age 22ish* season: 140 games, 40 2B, 23, HRs, 41 BB, 90 Ks, .300/.350/.496

Here are their career minor league OPS's:

Billy Butler: .336/.416/.561 (.977)
Player X: .327/.388/.600 (.988)

Butler's had a slight edge during his early career in OBP, Player X a slight edge in the power department. The mysterious identity of Player X is revealed following the jump....

*turned 22 in July

Player X = Alex Rodriguez. This might be a bit disingenuous, actually, as Alex posted an OPS above 1.000 the year before, while Billy didn't clear .800 last year. And Alex was a year and a half younger.

But it's certainly something good to take away from this season.

CDC Report: Americans no Longer at Risk of Catching Royals Fever

marbotty — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 09:25:39 -0000

Image from MSNBC.com, sort of

View full size photo »

ATLANTA – A report released Thursday by researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia brought a collective sigh of relief to medical workers around the nation.

"The crisis has passed," said Dr. Thomas Frieden, CDC Director. "Royals Fever is no longer considered contagious."

It all started when scattered reports of the disease began trickling in around March, primarily in rural sections of Arizona. But it was not until the beginning of April, when a large outbreak of infections occurred in the Midwest, that medical researchers became alarmed.

"We were seeing huge numbers of cases, " said Doug McCabe, spokesman for the Kansas Department of State Health Services. "There would literally be 20,000 to 30,000 new infections occurring daily."

Officials were concerned most by a record 38,098 new cases reported on April 10. Said McCabe, "To put it in perspective, that’s about the size of a small-market sports stadium at capacity."

The disease had several stages of symptoms. In the initial stage, individuals suffered from delusions and mild euphoria. As the fever progressed, however, this gave way to a soul-crushing despair.

At certain points of their illness, individuals suffering from the disease would congregate in large groups for two to three hours at a time, more often than not wearing similar apparel. It was not unlike a leper colony, except that the afflicted actually chose to be there.

"Looking back, I’m actually kind of ashamed I spent my time doing that," said Bill McDougal, a Blue Springs, MO resident who has now recovered from the disease. "But when you've caught the fever, you find yourself doing all sorts of crazy stuff."

In total, over 900,000 U.S. cases of the disease had been confirmed through laboratory testing, though officials think the actual number of infections may have been much higher. Either way, this marked the largest outbreak of its type since 1985.

"It was really a perplexing disease, and didn’t follow normal patterns of infection," stated Steve Waterman, medical epidemiologist for the CDC. "Taking precautions like hand washing and avoiding those who were infected did little to curb the spread of the disease.    Similarly, there were some who would be exposed to the disease repeatedly who seemed immune from infection, while some individuals would seemingly recover from the disease but would become infected again a few days later."

"This happened over and over again, usually every fifth day or so."

While the CDC and National Health Organization were taking precautions for a potential epidemic, officials at the World Health Organization seemed unconcerned.   As one anonymous official there explained, this had to do with a naturally high resistance to Royals Fever in people living outside of North America. "We just simply aren’t affected by such trivialities," he said.

There seemed to be a tipping point around mid to late May, when the number of new cases dropped dramatically.   Still, health officials remained vigilant. There was a fear that, as with the 1918 Flu Epidemic, the disease was going dormant due to the rise in temperatures, only to have a stronger, more lethal strain appear in September or October.

When asked if there was a chance at this point of the disease turning into a full-fledged epidemic, Waterman laughed. "No, it’s virtually impossible. Statistically speaking, the odds are at 0%.

"It has been mathematically eliminated," he continued.

"Still, like the common flu, this is a seasonal disease, so there’s sure to be a few new infections next year, but the odds of it going national are very minute." Waterman said.

"It’s looking more and more likely that it will never happen."

Preseason Rookie Meter: Not exactly a ringing endorsement of Tyson Jackson

marbotty — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 21:05:28 -0000

Preseason Rookie Meter: Not exactly a ringing endorsement of Tyson Jackson

We shouldn't read into this at all, but if we did, it would sort of suggest Pioli/Haley blew the pick. At least we've got a full season to prove this thing wrong.

21 Things You Could Have Told Me at the Beginning of the Season that Would Have Led Me to Believe We'd Be in First Place Right Now

marbotty — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 02:17:34 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

#1 Zack Greinke would be a potential Cy Young winner

Browse more photos »

1. Zack Greinke would be leading the AL in Strikeouts and ERA

2. Brayan Pena would be called up and would hit .319/.355/.478

3. Brian Bannister hwould not only regain his 2007 form, but improve on it

4. Willie Bloomquist would not be as terrible as we anticipated

5. Coco Crisp would have a .371 OBP in the first month, and would have the 3rd most walks on the team through August

6. Mark Teahen would show a resurgence in his ability to hit, garnering a lot of interest as a trade candidate...

7. ...but we would not trade him because Moore viewed him as to valuable to the team's chances in 2009

8. The Royals would be in first place through much of the first two months

9. Kyle Farnsworth would have more strikeouts than innings pitched, and a 4:1 K/BB ratio, against only 2 homeruns allowed

10. Mike Jacobs would have dramatically improved his walk rate and his defense, while also leading the team in homeruns

11. Miguel Olivo would have 14 homeruns

12. Alberto Callaspo and Billy Butler would both have OPS's around .800

13. Soria would continue to dominate

14. Hillman would start demonstrating some creativity with the use of his closer, not being wedded to the idea of a 3 out pitcher

15. Moore would trade away two prospects, including Dan Cortes, to upgrade our shortstop position

16. Both Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar would show flashes of brilliance, including months in which they both pitched as good as or better than Greinke

17. Gil Meche would continue to be a dependable innings eater with an above average ERA

18. Sidney Ponson wouldn't be on the major league squad by June

19. The Royals would be buyers at the trade deadline, trading for depth at the outfield and infield positions

20. Jose Guillen wouldn't be starting in the outfield by August 2, as we had several better options

21. Dayton Moore would condescend to us about how well The Process was working

The 600/1200 Rule and Predicting Future All-Stars

marbotty — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 22:24:11 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Not me.

Browse more photos »

I am not a scout. I am not a sabermagician. I have no professional, college, or even high-school baseball experience, either as a player or as part of a front-office or coaching staff.

In fact, my direct association with the game ceased to exist around the 6th grade, when, while picking grass while "manning" right field, I had an epiphany: carrying a lifetime .057 batting average wouldn't be opening any doors for me in the world of baseball.

In other words, I'm no expert. You can take everything I am about to write with a grain of salt, dismiss what I say, and disagree with me entirely.

But be prepared to eat that grain of salt on a serving of crow, as I am 100% correct.

Well, maybe.

Introduction to the 600/1200 Rule

Like clockwork, there is a time each season where I abandon hope of the Royals winning the pennant and instead start to wonder what will happen next year and beyond (see DANSSTOAD). That moment arrived about a week or two ago, and while I still check the boxscores each day, it's less with an interest in seeing the score, and more an eye at individual performances, to see if there's any reason to be optimistic about the future of our younger players.

Specifically, my main concern was whether our core of younger players (Butler, Gordon, Callaspo, and Aviles) would ever be able to hit well enough to anchor a playoff-bound offense, Or, more simply, whether these guys would ever turn into all-stars.

This naturally lead to a couple of questions:

1. How does one define an all-star?

2. Is it even possible to predict if Player X will become an all-star?

I took a bit of an arbitrary approach to #1 -- I defined an "all-star" as any player capable of amassing an .800 OPS or higher. (Similarly, I have defined a player with a .900 OPS or greater as a super-star.)

I'm sure I'll catch a little flack from some on the site, as not all .800 OPS'ers are built the same -- for example, OBP is likely much more important than SLG. That said, an .800 OPS is an .800 OPS, and for a team that's only featured four guys over the last three years to have topped that mark (Callaspo, Sanders, Aviles, and DeJesus), we should be ecstatic if we can add two or three more names to the list, no matter how that OPS was arrived at.

To answer #2, I decided to look at commonalities between all of the players that managed to cross both the .800 OPS and .900 OPS thresholds over the last nine years. What I found was a melange of different playing types, ages, positions, and backgrounds. Some of the guys on the list were perennial all-stars (Pujols, A-Rod, etc.), some guys who were rookie sensations (Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez, Evan Longoria), and some were guys that seemed to come out of nowhere (Russell Branyan, Nelson Cruz, Jack Cust, Ryan Ludwick, Raul Ibanez.)

It was this last group, the Late Bloomers, that intrigued me the most -- with little exception, the majority of these players had been in the league for a few years, perhaps sporting a decent minor league pedigree, but never showing enough at the major league level to warrant extended playing time.

Despite the seeming disparity in player profiles, after a bit of digging, I was a bit surprised how easy it was to spot future all-stars. They all had the same thing in common -- and I was even more surprised that I had never come across this idea previously, even though it intuitively made sense. Maybe this has been explored and discussed countless places before, maybe it''s already so obvious to the majority of baseball fans that it doesn't even warrant discussion, even among casual observers of the game. But this discovery was new to me, so there's likely one or two of you that will find this at least a little interesting.

So what was the common thread?

Basically, there were two central precepts at play here. Which leads to Rule #1:

Rule 1: The first 600 at bats in a player's career don't
matter...

After looking at the career statistics of all 100+ players who had managed to post an OPS of .800 or greater over the 2000 - 2009 seasons, one thing proved to be true. No matter how poorly they had done in their initial 600 at bats (even if spread across several seasons), it had little to no bearing on how they would perform later on. This was almost universally true for all of the future all-stars, with only a handful of exceptions (roughly 6 - 7 %) which I'll get into later.

Here are but a few examples of how the first 600 at bats are irrelevant:

Jermaine Dye
1996 ATL 292 at bats OPS .763
1997 KC 263 at bats OPS .653
Career OPS .830

Mike Sweeney
1996 KC 165 at bats OPS .770
1997 KC 240 at bats OPS .668
1998 KC 282 at bats OPS .728
Career OPS .854

Hideki Matsui
2003 NY 623 at bats OPS .788
Career OPS .847

Raul Ibanez
1997 SEA 26 at bats OPS .500
1998 SEA 98 at bats OPS .699
1999 SEA 209 at bats OPS .734
2000 SEA 140 at bats OPS .630
Career OPS .829

Adam Lind
2007 TOR 290 at bats OPS .678
2008 TOR 326 at bats OPS .755
2009 TOR 269 at bats OPS .915

The list literally goes on and on, but I think you get the idea. Whether you chalk up this phenomenon to small sample sizes or as a "necessary adjustment period" to major league pitching -- the fact is, you shouldn't dismiss a player based on his first 600 at bats, particularly if the player has shown a tendency to hit well in the minors. What's sort of interesting is that age really doesn't play a factor -- it's mainly a function of opportunity.

Another cool example is Casey Blake, who is OPS'ing over .881 right now. Here's his first 6 years in the majors:

1999 .677 OPS
2000 .646 OPS
2001 .746 OPS (NY) .521 OPS (BAL)
2002 .521 OPS
2003 .723 OPS

Blake was 26 years old when he logged his first ML at bat, and it wasn't until age 30 when he got extended playing time in 2003 (557 at bats). It would have been very easy to write him off as a scrub based on those pitiful numbers. One thing to realize is that he had only logged just a shy over 600 at bats from 1999 - 2003 (including his 557 at bats in 2003). So, according to the 600 rule (which I am stretching a bit here, if only slightly), you shouldn't give up on him. And true to the rule, he's OPS'd over .800 in 3 of the 6 years since.

Of course, there are a few instances where common sense dictates that it is indeed okay to give up on the player, like with Tony Pena, Jr., where there's nothing in either his major league or minor league profile that would suggest he would ever hit better than he does currently.

Considering the mildly disappointing starts to both Gordon and Butler's careers, (and "disappointment" is of course subjective and debatable), this was encouraging news, as their sub .800 OPS's seemed to belie what was their true talent. But then I discovered rule #2:

Rule #2: ...But the first 1200 at bats do matter.

Almost without fail, everyone who has posted a .800+ OPS season over the last ten years has posted an OPS of .800 within at least one 500-600 at bat stretch during his initial 1200 at bats.

Among all of the players who had managed an .800 OPS in a single season from 2000 - 2009, about 93% had posted at least an .800 OPS in one of their first two seasons (or equivalent). For those players who had managed to make it to superstar level (.900 OPS or higher), the baseline was an OPS of about .850 OPS during one or both of their first two seasons.

What's interesting here is that this was true across the board, regardless of position. For example, you may have often heard, like I had, that catchers take a long time to develop.

It is for this reason that for years I have waited patiently for John Buck to blossom into an all-star caliber hitter. He had often showed flashes, he had the build, but he just hadn't put it all together. Had I applied the 1200 rule after his first 1200 or so at bats, I would have realized earlier that my waiting was in vain.

The simple truth is, if a player is ever going to hit .800 OPS or greater over a sustained period of time, the proof of their ability to do so should be evident within their first two years. A brief look at all of the premiere hitting catchers (Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, Jorge Posada, Javy Lopez, Joe Mauer) over the last ten years has proven this to be true. It didn't take them years to adjust -- they basically came up and started hitting -- if not in year one, in year two.

In other words -- if you're good enough to start hitting, you're going to do it right away, otherwise it's not going to happen.

Of course, sometimes it does happen. Sometimes a guy who fails to post an .800 in their first 1200 at bats goes on to have an excellent career.

Ironically enough, this was the case with our own Carlos Beltran (though he logged a .791 in his first full year), and there are a handful of other guys to which this applies (Gary Sheffield, Luis Gonzalez, and Sammy Sosa are among some of the more notable guys) These counter-examples are rare, and even in most of the cases, if they didn't clear .800 in their first 1200, they did it in their first 1800. And while it's probably a little unfair to note, some of these guys were heavily rumored, if not confirmed, to have used steroids, so there's at least the possibility that they've skewed the results.

The corollary is the other type of guy who posts an .800 season without having one in his first 1200 at bats. These are the flukes -- the Edgar Renteria's, the Juan Encarnacion's, or the Shea Hillebrand's. At most, they will likely only provide one or two more .800 OPS seasons, but it is usually a crapshoot when and where that will occur.

While some of these players may add value to their team defensively, the odds are very heavily against them repeating their .800+ seasons, so astute general managers will know not to rely on them to be offensive sparkplugs for their respective teams.

Not so astute general managers end up spending millions of dollars on guys like Gary Matthews, Jr., and to a lesser extent, Jose Guillen. While the Rule of 1200 may tell you who will become a star, it's just as likely, if not more likely, to tell you who won't become a star (or maintain their current stardom.)

What does this mean for the Royals?

What's sort of unique about the four players I mentioned at the top of this agonizingly long post was that they all could go either way with this, depending on how generous you feel.

Right now, only Aviles is in the running for future all-star, under these two rules. Although of the four, he's the one I feel least likely to actually be able to capitalize. Most of Aviles' offensive value was tied up in a very unsustainable high batting average. It would appear his .800+ OPS of 2008 was a fluke, but considering the current state of the Royals, it wouldn't hurt to give him a season to prove otherwise.

Callaspo's probably in the best shape under this scenario, provided he's able to keep on his current pace. His minor league numbers provide a lot of reason for optimism here, too.

As for Gordon and Butler, it's difficult to get too excited. A year ago, I saw a future George Brett and David Ortiz. Now, and especially in light of the trend I've seen among the players I surveyed, it seems more likely we're looking at something like Shea Hillebrand and John Olerud. Not terrible, but certainly a let down considering the hype surrounding these players.

Of course, Butler still has about 400 at bats remaining of his 1200, so if he picks things up, we can begin to dream a little again. And even if he doesn't manage, he's still young, but if this study proved anything, it doesn't matter what age people are when they get their chance -- they'll either hit right away or they won't. And if they don't, there's little reason to expect they'll start doing it later.

Poll

What else does this mean?

It's not too late to bring back Justin Huber

141 votes

141 votes | Poll has closed

Minor League Recap: 2008 Omaha Royals

marbotty — Sat, 02 May 2009 12:01:03 -0000

It must be fun to be a baseball fan in a town that houses a AAA affiliate. Not only do you get to enjoy the highest quality baseball outside of the majors (or Japan), you also get to watch a wide array of players take the field.

For example, had you picked a random Omaha Royals game to watch last season, you would have had the pleasure of seeing a hodgepodge of different players: rising stars like Mike Aviles, Billy Butler, and Kila Kaaihuie, retreads like Gookie Dawkins and Angel Berroa, AAAA tweener-types like Shane Costa and Damon Hollins, and a bunch of guys like Ryan Shealy and Brayan Pena, who don't really belong in the minors but who also don't have a roster spot open for them on the parent club.

On top of that, you get awesome promotions that are usually too risque or too bizarre to be considered acceptable at the major league level. Take this year's bobblehead promotion.

If you go watch a game on bobblehead night in Kauffman, you'd expect to receive either a current player or a former allstar like George Brett or Amos Otis. In Omaha? Warren Mother Flipping Buffett. Why? Because the guy could rake, that's why.

Career OPS: .931

Or how about this other promotion. Ever heard of Todd Balduf? I hadn't, but if you look at the Omaha Royals stat sheet from last year, you'll see he logged exactly one game and only one at bat. What was the point? I'm guessing it was "Moonlight Graham" night at Omaha Stadium, and one lucky fan got picked from the stands to get a minor league at bat. At least, that's what should have happened, and if this promotion ever gets greenlighted, I want credit for it.

2008 TEAM RECAP

The O Royals went a disappointing 63-81, which was the 3rd lowest win total among the 16 teams in the Pacific League. On the plus side, nobody gives a squirt.

TOP 5 HITTING PERFORMANCES

1. Kila Kaihuee, 1B
114 At Bats, 11 HRs, .316/.439/.640, 24BB, 26K

Kila was sort of the minor league equivalent of Manny Ramirez in that he ended up being the best hitter on two different teams. Of course, in Kila's case, the two teams were NW Arkansas and Omaha, so he didn't get quite as much press on the subject as Manny.

Even though he had a higher walk rate than anyone on the team and averaged one homerun per 10 at bats, (which was actually better than Manny), Kila didn't get the call to the majors until the very tail end of the 2008 season. You would have thought Dayton would have been more inclined to call him up sooner considering:

1. An ineffective Ross Gload was manning 1B, and
2. Aviles had a monster season once he was called up to replace an equally ineffective Tony Pena, Jr.

But this was Ross Mother Flipping Gload we were talking about, so I can understand Moore's reluctance. Let's also not lose sight of the fact that there's nothing about Kíla's name that would either imply or rhyme with an explosion, so there's no way he could have been as big of a fan favorite as Ross. (Wait, what about a "Kila-ton" bomb? Oh, well.)

2. Mike Aviles, 2B/SS
214 At Bats, 10 HRs, .336/.370/.631, 11BB, 26K

If you were unfamiliar with the Royals and were just looking at this year's stats, you might wonder what the big deal is about Mike Aviles. In fact, you might think he sucks.

But last year was a different story, and Aviles was arguably our best player last season. Of course, his story began in Omaha, where, like Kila, he manhandled Pacific League pitching. While Aviles only hit homeruns at half the rate that Kila did, his slugging percentage was nearly identical, thanks in big part to a higher batting average and a much higher doubles rate.

Where he lagged behind Kila the most was in his ability to draw walks, only garnering one every five games or so. Critics/cynics who believed Mike's success was unsustainable pointed first at this low walk rate as evidence of a future decline. So far, those concerns have had merit, as Aviles has been terrible.

But we'll always love Aviles for 2008. And eventually, that love will turn to annoyance, then disdain, and then sheer, gutwrenching hatred... much like it did with Berroa in the years following his rookie of the year season. Speaking of which...

3. Angel Berroa, SS
189 At Bats, 10 HRs, .291/.323/.519, 8BB, 25K

Didn't see that coming did you?

Okay, I'm cheating a bit here, as either Butler or Shealy should be in this spot. But that would have ruined my cool Aviles-Berroa segue, and I just couldn't have that.

The other thing is that there's a sentimentality factor in play here -- nobody expected Berroa to ever perform well again, and that sort of underdog-ness made me root for him more than I normally would for another player. (Am I glad he's with another team? Yes. I'm not crazy.)

So while his raw stats don't compare to Butler and Shealy's, the fact that he performed well despite the fact that nobody believed in him, or even really liked him, and the fact that it helped with my literary transition, Berroa gets the nod at #3. Also, it gives me an excuse to post this photo:

Either the Dodgers appreciate Angel as much as we do, or this was the most poorly-conceived Budweiser ad ever. (via www.pe.com)

4. Billy Butler, 1B
101 At Bats, 5 HRs, .337/.417/.564, 14BB, 7K

Hey! It's Billy Butler! No big surprise here, and nothing really exciting to write about that nobody hasn't written before. (How's that for a triple negative?)

5. Ryan Shealy, 1B
400 At Bats, 22 HRs, .283/.376/.503, 55BB, 93K

It's sort of mind boggling that Shealy still doesn't have a spot on the 25 man roster, considering the success he had for half a season in the pros and two years in the minors, and considering what was at the time a rather large bounty required to bring him over. It's also mind boggling because other guys that Dayton brought in via trade all got more of an extended shot than Ryan (Pena, Gathright, Gload), despite all having a worse pedigree and requiring less in the trade. Sure, he sucked in 2007, but so did those guys, and they all got to keep playing.

I have an irrational man crush on Mike Jacobs, but I would have been perfectly happy to let Shealy man the 1B/DH position in 2009. Having Nunez in the fold might have also spared us the pain of acquiring Kyle Farnsworth, and maybe that extra $4 million spent on Jacobs could have spent on something to spare us the pain of Sidney Ponson. But there's no point dwelling on this now. The only real question is which of Shealy or Kaiihue gets traded first.

Other Notables: Todd Balduf

TOP 5 PITCHING PERFORMANCES

1. Joel Peralta
18.2 IP, 0 GS, 0.00 ERA, 19K, 6BB

Sure, he was tater-ific while pitching in KC last season, but he was downright nasty as a reliever in Omaha. A 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio, over a strikeout an inning, and not a single runner allowed in 18 innings qualifies as a success at any level. His struggles in KC last year was a bit perplexing, as he hadn't ever shown before such a high propensity for giving up dingers, either at the minor or major league level. Let's hope he can get his career back on track, as he was a solid pitcher prior to last season's meltdown.

2. Jorge De La Rosa
22 IP, 4 GS, 1.64 ERA, 23K, 7BB

Here's another name you probably didn't expect to see on this list, but really, it's pretty typical of his career. In what must be maddening for GMs, Jorge shows flashes of brilliance, only to eventually turn into a pumpkin once given enough exposure to ML hitting.

Colorado's giving him a starting role again this season, and I'm sure he'll last another month in the pros before eventually getting demoted, traded, or waived, only to be picked up by another team in search of a reclamation project. But next time it will work!

3. Carlos Rosa
50.2 IP, 11GS, 4.09 ERA, 44K, 12BB

I still don't understand why Rosa isn't considered the better prospect of him and Dan Cortes. Of course, I'm not looking at this from a scouting standpoint, and yes, Cortes has the advantage (or disadvantage) of being younger. But from a purely statistical perspective, Rosa has easily bested Cortes in pure performance each year they've been in the system.

Rosa had one of the best K:BB ratios on the squad, and while his ERA wasn't that impressive, he did do a good job of limiting baserunners and avoiding homeruns. He's back in Omaha again this year, and thus far he's dominating, with a 3.27 ERA, 11 K's against 3 BBs in only 11 innings pitched. Cortes, meanwhile, is sporting a 6.23 ERA, and 1.73 WHIP, although his peripherals suggest he's pitched much better than those numbers suggest.

4. and 5. Kyle Davies/Devon Lowery
57.2 IP, 11 GS, 2.03 ERA, 38K, 21BB (Davies)
59.1 IP, 0 GS, 2.12 ERA, 43K, 30BB (Lowery)

Davies gets a slight nod over Lowery -- their numbers were very similar -- due to the fact that he was starting and due to a better walk rate. But their other numbers, hits, homeruns, innings pitched, strikeouts, and runs allowed were almost identical. If Lowery had put up these numbers as a starter maybe we would have found our replacement for Ponson in the rotation. (It should be noted here that Jeff Fulchino actually had superior K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 than both Lowery and Davies, but he also gave up twice as many runs).

Other Notables: Luke Hochevar, Greg Atencio, Jeff Fulchino

Curtis Granderson Blogs about the New Kauffman Stadium for Some Reason

marbotty — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 18:43:52 -0000

Curtis Granderson Blogs about the New Kauffman Stadium for Some Reason

Not sure what to make of this, actually.

Minor League Recap: 2008 NW Arkansas Naturals

marbotty — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 14:29:30 -0000

2008 must have been a bittersweet year for Kansas-based fans of minor league baseball. On the one hand, the Royals organization saw spectacular performances from many of our young hitters and pitchers, and some clubs even managed to bring home an elusive division championship.

On the other hand, 2008 marked the departure of the AA affiliate from Wichita, as GM Dayton Moore relocated the team to Springdale, Arkansas, citing poor attendance and antiquated facilities as the reason behind the move. It made sense from a business perspective - relocation would bring in a new fan base and expose the Royals to new geographical region, as well as allow the players to play in a brand new ballpark designed by the KC-based firm responsible for gems like Camden Yards and Progressive Field. It also didn’t hurt that owner David Glass lives close by. Still, the loss of the team must have stung dearly for the 1,000 or so diehard fans who managed to show up to each game.

Those fans may have felt vindicated a bit by what happened next, as subsequent decisions related to the creation of the new team incited confusion and stirred up more than a little controversy.

First was the non-traditional nomenclature -- rather than calling the team the "Springdale Naturals," ownership opted for the more opaque "Northwest Arkansas Naturals", in what was most likely a cynical attempt at trying to lure in unsuspecting fans of early 90’s rap. (Straight outta Springdale!)

Second, and more damning, was the choice of the team mascot, "Strike." A Bigfoot/Caveman/Hillbilly hybrid, the new mascot immediately became one of the scariest in the minor leagues, famous for its taste for human flesh.

RIP Elaine Delphy (1956-2008) Cause of Death: between-inning "entertainment"

On the field, the 2008 Naturals performed valiantly -- winning 75 games while amassing 64 losses. As with every Kansas City minor league team last year, the Naturals pitching was responsible for their success, as they posted the second lowest team ERA (4.15) in the league.

Also, as with every Kansas City minor league team last year, their hitting sucked -- they were second to last in runs scored, outpacing only the Arkansas Travelers. (Arkansas Travelers? Suddenly the move to Arkansas makes no sense at all.) Aside from a few luminaries, the Naturals were every bit as anemic at the plate as the rest of their Royals affiliate brethren.

TOP 5 HITTING PERFORMANCES

1. Kila Ka’ahuie, 1B
287 At Bats, 26 HRs, .314/.463/.624, 80BB, 41K

Hawaiian Punch, Kila Monster, That Hawaiian Guy… whatever you call him, the guy can rake. Kila’s performance last season didn’t just lead the Naturals, it was among the best in all of minor league baseball. The .463 OBP was about 40 to 50 points higher than any other hitter in the minors, and was second to only Chipper Jones (.470) in all of baseball. He actually walked twice as often as he struck out last season, which was outstanding.

It wasn’t just about plate discipline either -- Kila hit for power, as well, as he led the team in homeruns and slugging. There really aren’t enough superlatives available to describe his season. He was naturally rewarded for his big year by getting the opportunity to repeat it again in AAA Omaha.

2. Juan Richardson, 1B
494 At Bats, 16 HRs, .296/.370/.474, 54BB, 93K

Hey, did you know there was another 1B that played for NW Arkansas last year? Me, neither. Kila’s monstrous year overshadowed Juan’s strong performance, but he still managed to lead the team in one category -- doubles, of which he hit 36. He was also rewarded for his success with his second straight Texas League All Star game appearance. Unfortunately, due to his age (28), his prospectdom is virtually nil. Factor in that he’s originally from the Dominican Republic, there’s a chance he’s actually about ready to start collecting social security payments.

3. Irving Falu, RF
362 At Bats, 5 HRs, .301/.367/.384, 38BB, 31K

Falu really only did a couple of things well last year, but he did them very well. He hit for average, cracking the Texas League top 10 in that category with a .301 avg, and he showed off a pretty good eye, with 38 BB’s against just 31 K’s. Had Kila not crushed him in that category, it probably would have seemed a lot more impressive.

Falu didn’t hit for much power and didn’t display much speed, as his .378 SLG and 9 CS (against 11 SB) demonstrate, so feel free to contest this ranking. Falu will continue to see time in the outfield at 2B in 2009 with the Naturals.

4. Cory Aldridge, DH
167 At Bats, 10 HRs, .269/.361/.497, 25BB, 37K

Cory hit homeruns at almost a good a clip as Kila, with 10 in just 167 at bats. He was also a Texas League All-Star… in 2005, which says a lot about whether or not we’ll be seeing him in the majors any time soon. He’ll turn 30 this season, so 2009 may end up being his swan song. He was promoted to Omaha, at least, so barring any trades and assuming injuries to Jacobs, Butler, Shealy, Kila, and likely Guillen, Costa, and Maier, you may get to see him playing in Kansas City this summer.

5. Brian McFall, 1B/OF
348 At Bats, 18 HRs, .241/.329/.454, 39BB, 103K

McFall’s one of those guys who performs well enough to get promoted but never quite well enough to generate serious buzz about him, and his season last year was no different. It was pretty good, but not great, as he hit a fair number of doubles and homeruns, and walked at a decent rate. He didn’t hit well for average, which depressed his overall rate stats.

The future’s a bit murky for Brian. He’s stuck with Shealy and Kila ahead of him in Omaha, and Jacobs and Butler up in KC, so advancement looks unlikely. He’s always hit for pretty good power, and there were several people before the season started last year who viewed him as good as or better a prospect than Kila, so there’s a chance something could click for him. Odds are that his chance will come with another organization, if at all.

TOP 5 PITCHING PERFORMANCES

1. Carlos Rosa
45 IP, 8 GS, 1.20 ERA, 42 K, 7 BB

Rosa may have had a bit harder time in Omaha, but he dominated Texas League hitters last year -- with just under a strikeout an inning over 8 starts. While Dan Cortes in considered the better pitching prospect, Carlos has done a good job of outperforming him thus far in their short careers. Carlos also had a nifty stint in the majors, when he struck out 3 in 3 innings, with 0 walks and just one run.

2. Tim Hamulack
23 IP, 0 GS, 1.96 ERA, 23 K, 1 BB

Hamulack quietly put together a great year for NWA in 2008, so quietly that I didn’t even know he existed until his name started popping up last month in spring training exhibition games. His K/9 was one of the best on the team, and his 23:1 strikeout to walk ratio must have made fellow teammate Rowdy Hardy feel nostalgic for his early part of his career.

3. Chris Hayes
65.2 IP, 0 GS, 1.64 ERA, 39 K, 13 BB

As a submariner, Hayes evokes memories of Royals great Dan Quisenberry. As a brainy sabermetric-friendly blogger, Hayes calls to mind (now) fellow minor leaguer Brian Bannister. He didn't strike out too many batters this season (he had a low 5.3 K/9), but he made up for it by minimizing the number of walks and homeruns allowed. He's the kind of pitcher you root for, and because of his unorthodox style, he's the kind of pitcher who you won't be surprised to see gracing the Powder Blues in a couple of years.

4. Chris Nicoll
43.2 IP, 1 GS, 3.09 ERA, 55 K, 8 BB

Nicoll was once considered one of the top Royals pitching prospects, having started off his career with strong seasons at Idaho Falls and Burlington in the rotation. Unfortunately, he got absolutely shelled in 2007 at Wilmington, and it wasn't just cosmetic, as he declined in all of his peripheral stats. An injured quadriceps may have contributed to his fall.

Nicoll was converted into a reliever after his fateful season, and seems to have gotten things back on track. He sported the top K/9 for the Naturals this season (11.3), while being very stingy with the walks, as well.

5. Dusty Hughes
52.2 IP, 4 GS, 2.91 ERA, 43 K, 16 BB

It could have been Jarod Plummer or Daniel Cortes in this spot, had the latter cut down on his walks and had the former cut down on his homeruns allowed. Hughes is another guy like Nicoll that was considered one of the better minor league pitchers for the Royals, until Moore took over from Baird and injected the system with a slew of young talent.

Hughes also spent some time in Omaha last year, but failed to match his success in Springdale. He'll get a chance again in 2009 to see if his promotion was warranted.

We must trade for League Leading Homerun Hitter Jeff Francouer!

marbotty — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 11:11:52 -0000

We must trade for League Leading Homerun Hitter Jeff Francouer!

Now, before it's too late