1:  As we've discussed a bit here, the M's behavior seems to suggest that they believe catchers impact RA much more than the minimal amount analysts would ascribe to CS, PB, errors, etc.    Why would you utilize the immortal platoon of Rob Johnson and Jamie Burke unless you believed catchers had an inordinate impact on RA?  

2:  cERA and other attempts to measure this effect have always foundered on two issues: sample size and selection bias.   The first because, duh and the second because a catcher who only catches Felix is going to look a lot better than a catcher who catches a large number of Carlos Silva starts.  

3:  Felix is having one of his best seasons ever, and yet he's still had some downright awful games.    The crappy game at home vs. LAA comes to mind - a start so bad, Wakamatsu 'called him out' in the press.   Baker seems to credit that move with helping Felix to 'focus' better, and notes his results since being trashed by his manager:  3-0, 0.72 ERA in 5 starts.    Of course, most M's fans would remember that Johjima caught that Angels game, and hasn't caught him since.   Indeed, you can pretty much eyeball Felix's game log and pick out the Johjima starts just be looking to see when Felix gave up runs/XBH.    And yes, the sample size in 2009 is laughably small.

So, I took a look at Felix's career splits by catcher.   What we get is this:

*With Johjima:*

1958 PAs, 406 Ks, 154 BBs, 52 HRs, 486 H.    BABIP: .327

*With everyone else:*

1245 PAs, 277 Ks, 91 BBs, 19 HRs, 263 H.   BABIP: .291

If you normalize the BABIP to Felix's career average of .313, you get slash lines of:

*.274/.334/.419 with Johjima*

and *.250/.312/.329 with everyone else.* 

In rate terms, that works out to:

H: 23.85% (Johjima, normalized), 22.65% (Field, normalized)

BB: 7.87%, 7.31%

K: 20.74%, 22.25%

HR: 2.66%, 1.53% (whoa)

'The Field' produces a shinier K/BB ratio, but it's not huge.   The difference here is almost entirely down to HR rate.  It's enough to produce a FIP of ~4 for Johjima and ~3.2 for everyone else.   That's big.   We keep waiting for 'King Felix' to stop pitching stupid, or for his results to show up and.... they basically have, from 2005-2009, so long as Johjima isn't catching.  

But wait!   Pizza Cutter's good work on when sample sizes 'stabilize' suggests that HR/FB or HR/PA is really, really volatile.    It's true - at 750 PAs, Pizza found HR/PA's r value was only at 0.323.   Not nothing, but not near the 0.7 he used as his standard for reliability.    So is Johjima the victim of really, really terrible luck on HR/FB?  Note that the samples for Felix/Johjima/the field are much, much larger than the 750 PA sample Pizza used (he was trying to use around 1 season of data; we've got more than that).

I have no idea.   I'm posting this because I was supposed to go to a meeting and it got cancelled.    I just dumped Felix's career splits into excel and estimated IP (and an error in IP will affect FIP, and my est. IP is too low, so knock a bit off the FIP).  I suspect it's one of those things where everyone will see their preconceived hypothesis 'vindicated' - if you hate the idea that catchers impact a pitcher's FIP, you can point to the pathetic r value and chalk it up to a fluke.   If you love the idea of catcher 'leadership' or 'grit' or 'studying the opposing hitters' or whatever the causal model is actually supposed to be here, you've got a big difference in FIP with no selection bias and so-so samples.  

For fun, let's regress these rates and see where we get.   If you double the PAs, and use league-average HR/PA figures for the second 'sample', you'll come out with rates of: 2.45% for Johjima and 1.89% for the 'field.'   That greatly reduces the FIP gap, but it's still there (as is the HR/PA gap).   

So what the hell is this?   WHY would Johjima 'create' more HRs?   What could he possibly be doing that would create a large effect on HR/PA?   It can't really be pitch calling, as Felix was shaking him off repeatedly in the infamous Angels start, only to have the pitches HE wanted to throw get crushed.   I'd love to see if there's a difference in GB% by catcher, or in the frequency of off-speed pitches thrown.   Felix certainly threw a ton of FBs against the angels, but again, that's not necessarily what Johjima called.   

Theories?

The Rainiers opened the refurbished Cheney Stadium tonight with an easy 6-2 win over the Sacramento Rivercats.

via farm4.static.flickr.com

There's been a lot of talk about the new scoreboard...here it is:

There's been even more talk about Jeff Clement's slow start.   The Sexwagon was apparently annoyed at that, as he went 3-4 with a HR and a 2B.    Here, mere moments before the HR....Mr. Jeff Clement:

via farm4.static.flickr.com

Also rocking the house: Mike Carp.

via farm4.static.flickr.com

For real pictures, please wait for Positive Paul's.

via farm4.static.flickr.com

Rainiers won behind Chris Seddon and Denny Stark.    Seddon pitched 5 1/3 of 4 hit 2R ball.   He K'd 5 and walked 2, overcoming a shaky first inning.   The lefty threw a FB between 86-89 (mostly right at 87), and a 79mph change.   Denny Stark went 3 2/3 IP of 1 hit, 3k 1BB ball.   He's doing his best to separate himself from the rest of the Rainiers reclamation projects (Jim Parque, Kevin Appier, etc.).

(link)

GMZ continued his poaching of the farm system he built in Milwaukee by signing 2B Callix Crabbe, a 25 yo who'd been in the Brewers farm system.

Crabbe was selected by the Padres in last year's Rule 5 draft, but was returned to Milwaukee in May.   He's a guy with great plate discipline, and little to no power.   He's a poor man's Luis Valbuena, but with a much, much cooler name.   A great guy to plug in Tacoma with the departure of Yung-Chi Chen.

And, since there's been so much talk about OTHER teams signing shortstops, the M's also picked up ex-Mets/Blue Jays SS Chris Woodward.   I'm guessing Woodward fills the Mark Kiger/Oswaldo Navarro role as back-up to Tug, or as starter in West Tennessee.   

Nice work Jack.

If you've been to a sporting event in Seattle, you've probably come across Ed McMichael, the guy with the beard and Tuba playing before (and after) each game.

Sadly, he's been murdered.    Story here.   Some kids beat/robbed him at a bus stop, apparently stealing his 1979 Sonics championship ring.   Two have been arrested, but police are looking for more scum/suspects.   

He was 53.

What are your favorite tuba man memories? Where did you first hear him?   Have any other favorite buskers around Qwest/Safeco?

M's press release noted that Looper (VP for Player Development) "declined an opportunity to stay" with the org.

The opportunity was apparently becoming a scout on the pro side within the M's.   We'll have to see who fills the vacancy at VP.    The director of player development, Greg Hunter, may be a candidate, but I'd guess Zduriencik may have others in mind for the gig.  

I like this move.    What do you think?

The Hawaii Winter Baseball league started near the end of September, so the teams have played 10-11 games to this point.  The Arizona Fall League started on the 7th of October.   

The Caribbean leagues start next week in most cases - most high-level M's prospects/players end up with the Lara Cardenales in the VWL, but Wlad and a few prospects will be playing in the Dominican instead.   J at Mariner Minors will probably cover these leagues, and has the wrap-up on M's representatives in the Baseball America top 20 prospects in each minor league.

The M's have several prospects in the prestigious Arizona Fall League this year, headlined by Carlos Triunfel and Greg Halman.   Triunfel is the youngest player in the league by a wide margin, and Halman would vie for that spot if Triunfel wasn't around.   Despite this, they're both off to hot starts.   Halman has played every OF spot and is off to a 6-13 start with a 2B and only 2 Ks.    Triunfel has played 2b and SS and is 5-13 with 3 2Bs, 1K and 1BB.   

Rob Johnson is the injury replacement for Adam Moore, but has played only one game behind the plate, with one appearance as a DH.

The pitching 'spects in Peoria include Joe Woerman, Doug Fister, Stephen Kahn and Gaby Hernandez.   Fister, Woermanand Kahn have each thrown 1 scoreless inning so far.

The HWL restarted a few years back as a league for low-minors prospects *and* advanced prospects from Japan (the NPB players seem older; I'd guess quite a few are corporate league vets).    Given that the players weren't as advanced as AFL guys, expectations weren't terribly high.   However, with draft hold-outs, injuries, etc., the league has managed to nab some of the better prospects in the game, often before they become household names.   Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Jeff Clement and Rick Vanden Hurk were all members of the original class in 2006, and Matt Wieters made his pro debut there last year.    This year, the league's headlined by 1st round picks Buster Posey, Yonder Alonso and 2007 1st rounder (and TJ surgery veteran) Andrew Brackman.

The only M's name of any note is Cuban 1B prospect Johan Limonta.   He's been old for his league in 2007 and 2008, but he's a 1B prospect who could take a walk, so he was at least moderately interesting.    So far, he's uh... he's struggling.    In 29 at bats, he's got 3 hits and has struck out a remarkable 14 times with 0 walks.    SSS, sure, but... oww.    He's also had some time in LF, so we'll see if he plays more OF in West Tennessee next year.

The other M's farmhands on the Waikiki Beachboys include Jamie McOwen, who's been batting leadoff and playing CF, and pitchers Rob Harmon and Steven Richard.

The Arizona Fall League kicks off in early October, and once again the M's will send several prospects to play for the Peoria Javelinas.

MLB announced some *preliminary* rosters today; often, one or two players will get substituted, and there are still several 'TBA' roster spots (two from the M's).  

What we know now is that the M's are sending Gregory Halman, Joe Woerman, Adam Moore, Justin Thomas, and Gaby Hernandez.

Other big names on the Javelinas include CF Austin Jackson of the Yankees and "3B" Mat Gamel of the Brewers.  

The battle for CF supremacy between Halman and Jackson will be great to see.   Halman turns 21 today and Jackson is 21 as well.

The biggest name in the league is probably Matt Wieters of the Orioles, the likely MiLB player of the year.   He and Jackson played in the Hawaii Winter Baseball League last year.

Matthew had one of these fanpost/diary thingies about a year ago, right around the time I was looking at jumping into the smartphone market.

I ended up getting a T-mobile Shadow, which was great for viewing LL on the go, or finding a restaurant, and all those nice things that smartphones are supposed to do.

It worked in the UK, or at least I think it did, because someone fucking stole it when I was there.  (Graham, if you know anything about this...)  

Basically, I'm under contract (T-mobile), and I really need a phone.   For the purposes of this discussion, let's assume that insurance actually gives me something for the loss of the old one, otherwise it'd be too expensive to do much of anything.   

Basically, have any of the new phones (iPhone '3G', LG Voyager, whatever) blown people away?   Any 3G phones on a GSM network that people love or hate?  

Also, has anyone bought a phone abroad to use here?   Shopping for phones in the UK was cool, because the phones were about 1-2 years ahead of what you can get here.   Seems like it'd be cool to grab an unlocked Nokia e75/76, but then I wonder why I'd do that when there's simply no way to take advantage of it.  

Any advice, recommendations, complaints, etc. would be really appreciated.

Billy Beane tries to ram it home to the remaining 15 A's fans that no, they're not trying to compete this year.

Oakland gets much-hyped 2b prospect Adrian Cardenas along with moderately intriguing LHP prospect Josh Outman and OF Matt Spencer.  

What do you think?   Did the A's get enough?   Cardenas and Outman really isn't a bad haul - this is more upside (though waaay more risk) than they got from the Cubs.  

Is this enough to help the Phillies hold off the Mets?

So I'd planned a little draft FanPost for the lunch hour, but I see Dave Cameron beat me to it .   

Go read that first... ok, got it?   Here are a few other possibilities - guys who may go from 12-25 or so:

1:  Yonder Alonso - 1b, Miami.   He was a consensus top 5 or 10 pick earlier, but seems to be dropping as prep 1B Eric Hosmer rises.   Would be a great bat, and a guy who could hit the ground running, but the odds still aren't great he'll be around at 20.

2:  Casey Kelley, SS, Fla HS.   Sounds similar to the prepster Anthony Hewitt, albeit with more physical tools and less baseball skill.   Kelley's signed a letter of intent to be U. of Tennessee's QB, so it'd take a lot to sign him, and at this point his hitting performance doesn't match his body type.   Could be another Hanley type like Hewitt, but he also screams Mike Morse to me (he's 6'4").

3:  Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane.   Great power pitcher, has hit 95, good offspeed pitch, but so so command.   He may go earlier, but this is a decent high risk high reward pick for a college pitcher.

4:  Ike Davis, OF, ASU.   Pure hitter, he's almost guaranteed to be around when the M's pick.   His teammate Brett Wallace is a great pure hitter as well, but if you can't get Wallace (he'll go around 10th-15th), Davis isn't a bad consolation prize.   Decent power, though not quite the plate discipline of Wallace.   A decent value pick if they really wanted a safe guy or a signable guy.

5:  Conor Gillaspie, 3b, Wichita State.   Another great pure hitter, hasn't played quite the competition of Davis/Wallace, and lacks pure power.   Did well in the Cape Cod league (led it in average), but that plus his meh power makes me think of Matt Mangini.  

6: Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Ill. HS.   Good FB/CB pitcher with a low-90s FB and a good slow curve.    Also developing a slider.    Some scouts like his mechanics/delivery.  

7:  Gerrit Cole, RHP, CA. HS.   True power pitcher who touches the mid/upper 90s.   Makings of a slider and change.    A Boras client, and someone whose mound demeanor has drawn some criticism.   Maybe a rawer but more projectable version of Chris Tillman.   He'll likely be there at 20, but will the M's go with another HS pitcher?  

What should the M's do?    Do you draft for need, or is that silly talk?   HS or college?   Pitcher or position player?

Bummed that you couldn't go to the softball game because you live in portland? Don't worry. Tonight, I propose to drink up, walk to PGE park, then go to a show, and then drink some more. If this sounds like your cup of tea, let me know, or come by the Shanghai Tunnel in a few hours.

Other stops may include the B side, the Doug Fir, Satyricon and more. If you have nothing better to do than argue about Roman history, go see the beavs and try to get LL signs on tv or go to a punk show well, uh, yeah me too.

Please note, this is a non-pornographic suggestion....

With the M's off today, I've been watching the Portland Beavers game on FSN.  

What's so interesting about the Hated Rivals' AAA club?   Well, the starting pitcher for the Beavs is Dirk Hayhurst, who's moving out of the bullpen to get some starts.   Who's Hayhurst?   He's the guy who blogs at BA in the 'non-prospect diary.'    His writing has really attracted some attention, and he's gotten writing gigs elsewhere.   

You may remember Dave Cameron drawing attention to Hayhurst in this post.

In addition, the game features a number of A's prospects, from Travis Buck to Wes Bankston (an ex-Rays prospect...yeah Jeff, I said RAYS).   All in all, it's a decent enough off-day distraction, and while the NBA game is close... it's baseball.

Fun fact:  typing on an eee pc is next to impossible if you have big hands.   I have mistyped every single word of this fanpost, but do not wish to encroach on JI's territory.

Ah, opening day.    Remember how excited we all were on Monday?   It's BACK!

The Rainiers open their season tonight at 7 versus the hated Sacramento Rivercats.   Ryan Feierabend gets the start versus Greg Smith (acquired in the Dan Haren deal).

It's a match-up of flyballers who really don't miss a ton of bats....a great test for the defense of Wlad Balentien and Jeremy Reed.   

No Roy Corcoran tonight, so maybe Sean White gets a shot at closing.   Or
The roster should be up at the Rainiers official site, and Jason Churchill had the roster here as well.   If you're looking for a bit of info about these guys, check this out (it's poorly organized and yeah, the final roster caught me a bit off guard.  sorry.).   Positive Paul will be at the game taking photos, so check marinersmorsels or the fanshots section for some of those.   I'll be there drinking beer, so...yay me!   Any other LLers going?

Wear your Rainiers jersey with pride today, people.

Kevin Goldstein's list is here, and features several M's:
33 - Jeff Clement
44 - Chris Tillman (interesting)
55 - Carlos Triunfel
93 - Wlad Balentien

In the chat at BP, Goldstein said that, if he was eligible, Adam Jones would be in the top 10 "easily.  I'm a HUGE fan."

Agree/disagree?  

FWIW, Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra came in at 65 and 79.  

As reported at USSM, BA, and elsewhere, the M's selected your 2007 PCL Pitcher of the Year, RA Dickey, in this year's rule 5 draft.
Dickey just signed on with the Twins, so he'd be returned to Minnesota, though he's never thrown a pitch in that organization.   Instead, he'll bring his knuckler (and whatever pitch it is that he calls 'the thang') to Peoria this spring.  

At this point, the M's haven't lost anyone.  

The first player selected was Twins relief 'spect Tim Lahey, a converted catcher (selected by the Rays).  
Other big names to move include Brian Barton, widely expected to go first or second (now a Cardinal), and Wesley Wright, a top 20-30 Dodger prospect who's now with the Astros.

FYI - the Jose Capellan selected by the Giants, is not the guy who was in the Brewers' bullpen.  This is a LHP who was in the Boston org; this name thing basically broke his baseball cube page, as you can see.  The lines from the Boston org are THIS capellan, the others are for the more famous one.  Oh, and the Detroit Tigers are listed as an affiliate of the M's.  Would that this were true.

Update [2007-12-6 12:19:1 by marc w]:One more thing: Pat Gillick continues to collect the prospects he had during his Seattle tenure. Travis Blackley was selected by the Phillies. Blackley and Doyle, together again.

Most of you are probably aware that the Arizona Fall League, the Hawaiian Winter Baseball League and the caribbean winter leagues are in full swing, and the that M's have prospects in both.  If you didn't, um, Michael Wilson, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Yung-Chi Chen have been pretty darn good, Wlad Balentien, Josh Womack and Harold Williams have struggled.  Tui continues the nice BA/OBP, poor slugging thing.

But this diary isn't about that.  This is about stories that you may have missed while watching Kevin Durant, the World Series or reading about the AFL.  

1:  The European Baseball Championships were held this fall in Barcelona.  Long-time power Holland took the title, which is not at all surprising.  What WAS surprising was the team they beat in the final: the United Kingdom.  The brits were led by the tournament MVP, a member of the 2007 Tacoma Rainiers and a grad. of Eastlake HS in Redmond: Brant Ust.
Another power, Italy, had a disappointing tournament and fired their long-time coach soon after.   Alex Liddi, the Wisconsin T-Rats 3B, played for the Italians.  Italy still qualifies for the 2007 world cup (more below), but the UK will qualify for the World Championships in 2008 or 2009 based on their performance.

2: With the WS over, a number of minor leaguers declared free agency.   You can peruse the list here and look for 2008's Jack Cust amongst the names.   Some M's fans might remember include Clint Nageotte, Rich Dorman, Greg Jacobs (who had a hell of a 2007 in Reading), Vince Faison and Wiki Gonzales.  The M's themselves look set to lose Cibney Bello, Justin Lehr, Brad Thomas and Jesus Merchan (acquired from the Phillies in the Julio Mateo deal).  
Though it's not up on the M's website, the M's look like they picked up an indie league vet from the Yankees, Scott Patterson.  Patterson's 29 now, but is coming off a truly remarkable season for AA Trenton.   Check it out.  That's a K/9 over 11 and a BB/9 under 2.  Intriguing, anyway, though he's obviously a longshot to make the majors.  So was George Sherrill though...  Patterson is currently pitching for the Lara Cardenales in Venezuela, alongside Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brad Thomas and Brandon Morrow.

3:  The Baseball World cup kicks off on Tuesday in Taiwan.   The US team has been warming up by playing in the Arizona Fall League.  The team includes Evan Longoria, Jay Bruce and Josh Outman, but no M's representatives.  
While M's OF prospect Greg Halman played in the Euros, he doesn't appear on Holland's World Cup roster.  It appears Yung-Chi Chen will stay in Arizona, too.  Alex Liddi will be there representing Italy, however, and Michael Saunders and Phillippe Aumont will play for Canada.  
Aumont ran into some trouble in a tune-up game in Australia, however, going 1/3 of an inning, and giving up a run on 3BB and a hit.   Hope he wasn't hurt...

John Schuerholz is expected to resign from the Braves, according to ESPN.

What do people think of this?   Would he ever come here?   Should he?   His track record is pretty damned impressive...

Ichiro Suzuki.

Hmm.   If you want some independent confirmation that Ichiro does not in fact suck, check the Hardball Times' Revized Zone Ratings, or go here for some work based on those ratings that show Ichiro as +30 runs on the year (hat tip: tangotiger).

The varying play-by-play metrics used to disagree on Andruw Jones, but there, the lower bound was that he was average or a little above (instead of historically great).   Here, the two advanced PBP metrics (NOT win shares, NOT BP stuff) think Ichiro's exceptional, just one thinks he's exceptionally awful, and the other exceptionally great.  

Same thing (though to a slightly different degree) with Ian Kinsler of the Rangers.   And, at least in 2005 and 2006, with Richie Sexson (in RZR, he was average to slightly above average).  

What the hell is going on?   Weren't these proprietary PBP systems supposed to eliminate the noise in defensive data?   Is it just me, or has this year resulted in even less correlation between BIS and Stats numbers?   HOW?

Good luck to you, Neil Huntington.

Huntington apparently saw his star wane under Shapiro with the rise of Chris Antonetti and was in a scout/MiLB coordinator sort of a role with Cleveland.   The indians were worried about Antonetti leaving for Pittsburgh, but the Pirates opted to go w/Huntington (apparently).

Link

Yesterday's attendance at the Marlins-Nats clash?  400 people.  Well, 399 after a heckler was ejected.
Check out the picture here, and remember: a major league baseball game was taking place when it was taken.

According to the Washington Post, "The three-day series between Florida and Washington at Dolphin Stadium drew a total of perhaps 3,000 fans."  

Johnbai's diary a ways down about Sean Green got me searching through the gameday logs looking for how much he's used his slider versus his fastball.  
Nothing systematic - just a quick look.   I love that we've got this data source, but I'm not really going to be the one to mine it and turn it in to something useful.

Well, lucky for me, this guy did.  
What John Kalk's got are charts for every pitcher who's thrown over 100 pitches in an enhanced gameday park.   You can see what they throw, and get a rough idea of how much they rely on one pitch or another.  I think it kicks ass.

He's developed an algorithm that classifies pitch types using the pitchfx data.   For many/most, it works beautifully.  The aforementioned Mr. Green is one of these (as you'd guess).   But he'd like some help if the formula's just obviously missing something - if the pitch type is wrong (splitter as opposed to slider), or if there are a lot of 'unknowns' that fans might be able to shed some light on.   So check out this list, and let's see if there are some anomalies.

It's been discussed in some of the minor league threads - is Wlad close to returning, or was his injury more severe?  
Balentien ended the debate by starting for the Rainiers last night (and going 0-4), and gettng another start tonight, going 1-3 with an RBI, a walk and a single.
He made a brutal throw from RF, allowing Brady Clark to score.  We'll chalk that one up to rust.

Oh, and Cha Seung Baek got pulled after 59 pitches, but went 4 1/3, 5h, 1r, 1bb, 1K.  
The WinVulture on the night?  None other than John Parrish.  

Rob Stratton, who doesn't play professional baseball.  
The ex-Albuquerque Isotope works as a realtor in the area, so they gave him an opportunity to enter the contest.  He ended up beating minor league HR leader Craig Brazell in the finals.  

For those that may not remember him, he was the ultimate three true outcomes slugger a few years ago.  In 2003 he hit 32 bombs in 372 ABs.  And struck out 175 times.  Nearly one every 2 ABs!  

We'll see if this gets him another shot next year.