SB Nation User Blog: marc w

King Felix and Mariner Catchers

marc w — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 21:44:28 -0000

1: As we've discussed a bit here, the M's behavior seems to suggest that they believe catchers impact RA much more than the minimal amount analysts would ascribe to CS, PB, errors, etc. Why would you utilize the immortal platoon of Rob Johnson and Jamie Burke unless you believed catchers had an inordinate impact on RA?

2: cERA and other attempts to measure this effect have always foundered on two issues: sample size and selection bias. The first because, duh and the second because a catcher who only catches Felix is going to look a lot better than a catcher who catches a large number of Carlos Silva starts.

3: Felix is having one of his best seasons ever, and yet he's still had some downright awful games. The crappy game at home vs. LAA comes to mind - a start so bad, Wakamatsu 'called him out' in the press. Baker seems to credit that move with helping Felix to 'focus' better, and notes his results since being trashed by his manager: 3-0, 0.72 ERA in 5 starts. Of course, most M's fans would remember that Johjima caught that Angels game, and hasn't caught him since. Indeed, you can pretty much eyeball Felix's game log and pick out the Johjima starts just be looking to see when Felix gave up runs/XBH. And yes, the sample size in 2009 is laughably small.

So, I took a look at Felix's career splits by catcher. What we get is this:

*With Johjima:*

1958 PAs, 406 Ks, 154 BBs, 52 HRs, 486 H. BABIP: .327

*With everyone else:*

1245 PAs, 277 Ks, 91 BBs, 19 HRs, 263 H. BABIP: .291

If you normalize the BABIP to Felix's career average of .313, you get slash lines of:

*.274/.334/.419 with Johjima*

and *.250/.312/.329 with everyone else.*

In rate terms, that works out to:

H: 23.85% (Johjima, normalized), 22.65% (Field, normalized)

BB: 7.87%, 7.31%

K: 20.74%, 22.25%

HR: 2.66%, 1.53% (whoa)

'The Field' produces a shinier K/BB ratio, but it's not huge. The difference here is almost entirely down to HR rate. It's enough to produce a FIP of ~4 for Johjima and ~3.2 for everyone else. That's big. We keep waiting for 'King Felix' to stop pitching stupid, or for his results to show up and.... they basically have, from 2005-2009, so long as Johjima isn't catching.

But wait! Pizza Cutter's good work on when sample sizes 'stabilize' suggests that HR/FB or HR/PA is really, really volatile. It's true - at 750 PAs, Pizza found HR/PA's r value was only at 0.323. Not nothing, but not near the 0.7 he used as his standard for reliability. So is Johjima the victim of really, really terrible luck on HR/FB? Note that the samples for Felix/Johjima/the field are much, much larger than the 750 PA sample Pizza used (he was trying to use around 1 season of data; we've got more than that).

I have no idea. I'm posting this because I was supposed to go to a meeting and it got cancelled. I just dumped Felix's career splits into excel and estimated IP (and an error in IP will affect FIP, and my est. IP is too low, so knock a bit off the FIP). I suspect it's one of those things where everyone will see their preconceived hypothesis 'vindicated' - if you hate the idea that catchers impact a pitcher's FIP, you can point to the pathetic r value and chalk it up to a fluke. If you love the idea of catcher 'leadership' or 'grit' or 'studying the opposing hitters' or whatever the causal model is actually supposed to be here, you've got a big difference in FIP with no selection bias and so-so samples.

For fun, let's regress these rates and see where we get. If you double the PAs, and use league-average HR/PA figures for the second 'sample', you'll come out with rates of: 2.45% for Johjima and 1.89% for the 'field.' That greatly reduces the FIP gap, but it's still there (as is the HR/PA gap).

So what the hell is this? WHY would Johjima 'create' more HRs? What could he possibly be doing that would create a large effect on HR/PA? It can't really be pitch calling, as Felix was shaking him off repeatedly in the infamous Angels start, only to have the pitches HE wanted to throw get crushed. I'd love to see if there's a difference in GB% by catcher, or in the frequency of off-speed pitches thrown. Felix certainly threw a ton of FBs against the angels, but again, that's not necessarily what Johjima called.

Theories?

Burke DFA'd, Johjima back (and starting)

marc w — Fri, 01 May 2009 22:56:43 -0000

Burke DFA'd, Johjima back (and starting)

They'll try and get Burke through waivers; if he clears, he'll be back in Tacoma.

Rainiers Home Opener

marc w — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 06:39:29 -0000

The Rainiers opened the refurbished Cheney Stadium tonight with an easy 6-2 win over the Sacramento Rivercats.

via farm4.static.flickr.com

There's been a lot of talk about the new scoreboard...here it is:

There's been even more talk about Jeff Clement's slow start. The Sexwagon was apparently annoyed at that, as he went 3-4 with a HR and a 2B. Here, mere moments before the HR....Mr. Jeff Clement:

via farm4.static.flickr.com

Also rocking the house: Mike Carp.

via farm4.static.flickr.com

For real pictures, please wait for Positive Paul's.

via farm4.static.flickr.com

Rainiers won behind Chris Seddon and Denny Stark. Seddon pitched 5 1/3 of 4 hit 2R ball. He K'd 5 and walked 2, overcoming a shaky first inning. The lefty threw a FB between 86-89 (mostly right at 87), and a 79mph change. Denny Stark went 3 2/3 IP of 1 hit, 3k 1BB ball. He's doing his best to separate himself from the rest of the Rainiers reclamation projects (Jim Parque, Kevin Appier, etc.).

New MiLB infielder acquisitions

marc w — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 23:12:21 -0000

(link)

GMZ continued his poaching of the farm system he built in Milwaukee by signing 2B Callix Crabbe, a 25 yo who'd been in the Brewers farm system.

Crabbe was selected by the Padres in last year's Rule 5 draft, but was returned to Milwaukee in May. He's a guy with great plate discipline, and little to no power. He's a poor man's Luis Valbuena, but with a much, much cooler name. A great guy to plug in Tacoma with the departure of Yung-Chi Chen.

And, since there's been so much talk about OTHER teams signing shortstops, the M's also picked up ex-Mets/Blue Jays SS Chris Woodward. I'm guessing Woodward fills the Mark Kiger/Oswaldo Navarro role as back-up to Tug, or as starter in West Tennessee.

Nice work Jack.

RIP Ed McMichael - the Tuba man

marc w — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 16:53:46 -0000

If you've been to a sporting event in Seattle, you've probably come across Ed McMichael, the guy with the beard and Tuba playing before (and after) each game.

Sadly, he's been murdered. Story here. Some kids beat/robbed him at a bus stop, apparently stealing his 1979 Sonics championship ring. Two have been arrested, but police are looking for more scum/suspects.

He was 53.

What are your favorite tuba man memories? Where did you first hear him? Have any other favorite buskers around Qwest/Safeco?

Benny Looper is now looking for a job.

marc w — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 23:53:09 -0000

M's press release noted that Looper (VP for Player Development) "declined an opportunity to stay" with the org.

The opportunity was apparently becoming a scout on the pro side within the M's. We'll have to see who fills the vacancy at VP. The director of player development, Greg Hunter, may be a candidate, but I'd guess Zduriencik may have others in mind for the gig.

I like this move. What do you think?

Fall/Winter League updates

marc w — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 18:34:57 -0000

The Hawaii Winter Baseball league started near the end of September, so the teams have played 10-11 games to this point. The Arizona Fall League started on the 7th of October.

The Caribbean leagues start next week in most cases - most high-level M's prospects/players end up with the Lara Cardenales in the VWL, but Wlad and a few prospects will be playing in the Dominican instead. J at Mariner Minors will probably cover these leagues, and has the wrap-up on M's representatives in the Baseball America top 20 prospects in each minor league.

The M's have several prospects in the prestigious Arizona Fall League this year, headlined by Carlos Triunfel and Greg Halman. Triunfel is the youngest player in the league by a wide margin, and Halman would vie for that spot if Triunfel wasn't around. Despite this, they're both off to hot starts. Halman has played every OF spot and is off to a 6-13 start with a 2B and only 2 Ks. Triunfel has played 2b and SS and is 5-13 with 3 2Bs, 1K and 1BB.

Rob Johnson is the injury replacement for Adam Moore, but has played only one game behind the plate, with one appearance as a DH.

The pitching 'spects in Peoria include Joe Woerman, Doug Fister, Stephen Kahn and Gaby Hernandez. Fister, Woermanand Kahn have each thrown 1 scoreless inning so far.

The HWL restarted a few years back as a league for low-minors prospects *and* advanced prospects from Japan (the NPB players seem older; I'd guess quite a few are corporate league vets). Given that the players weren't as advanced as AFL guys, expectations weren't terribly high. However, with draft hold-outs, injuries, etc., the league has managed to nab some of the better prospects in the game, often before they become household names. Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Jeff Clement and Rick Vanden Hurk were all members of the original class in 2006, and Matt Wieters made his pro debut there last year. This year, the league's headlined by 1st round picks Buster Posey, Yonder Alonso and 2007 1st rounder (and TJ surgery veteran) Andrew Brackman.

The only M's name of any note is Cuban 1B prospect Johan Limonta. He's been old for his league in 2007 and 2008, but he's a 1B prospect who could take a walk, so he was at least moderately interesting. So far, he's uh... he's struggling. In 29 at bats, he's got 3 hits and has struck out a remarkable 14 times with 0 walks. SSS, sure, but... oww. He's also had some time in LF, so we'll see if he plays more OF in West Tennessee next year.

The other M's farmhands on the Waikiki Beachboys include Jamie McOwen, who's been batting leadoff and playing CF, and pitchers Rob Harmon and Steven Richard.

Arizona Fall League rosters taking shape

marc w — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:33:45 -0000

The Arizona Fall League kicks off in early October, and once again the M's will send several prospects to play for the Peoria Javelinas.

MLB announced some *preliminary* rosters today; often, one or two players will get substituted, and there are still several 'TBA' roster spots (two from the M's).

What we know now is that the M's are sending Gregory Halman, Joe Woerman, Adam Moore, Justin Thomas, and Gaby Hernandez.

Other big names on the Javelinas include CF Austin Jackson of the Yankees and "3B" Mat Gamel of the Brewers.

The battle for CF supremacy between Halman and Jackson will be great to see. Halman turns 21 today and Jackson is 21 as well.

The biggest name in the league is probably Matt Wieters of the Orioles, the likely MiLB player of the year. He and Jackson played in the Hawaii Winter Baseball League last year.

OT: Mobile/Smartphone advice

marc w — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 08:24:21 -0000

Matthew had one of these fanpost/diary thingies about a year ago, right around the time I was looking at jumping into the smartphone market.

I ended up getting a T-mobile Shadow, which was great for viewing LL on the go, or finding a restaurant, and all those nice things that smartphones are supposed to do.

It worked in the UK, or at least I think it did, because someone fucking stole it when I was there. (Graham, if you know anything about this...)

Basically, I'm under contract (T-mobile), and I really need a phone. For the purposes of this discussion, let's assume that insurance actually gives me something for the loss of the old one, otherwise it'd be too expensive to do much of anything.

Basically, have any of the new phones (iPhone '3G', LG Voyager, whatever) blown people away? Any 3G phones on a GSM network that people love or hate?

Also, has anyone bought a phone abroad to use here? Shopping for phones in the UK was cool, because the phones were about 1-2 years ahead of what you can get here. Seems like it'd be cool to grab an unlocked Nokia e75/76, but then I wonder why I'd do that when there's simply no way to take advantage of it.

Any advice, recommendations, complaints, etc. would be really appreciated.

Joe Blanton -> Philadelphia

marc w — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 23:20:33 -0000

Billy Beane tries to ram it home to the remaining 15 A's fans that no, they're not trying to compete this year.

Oakland gets much-hyped 2b prospect Adrian Cardenas along with moderately intriguing LHP prospect Josh Outman and OF Matt Spencer.

What do you think? Did the A's get enough? Cardenas and Outman really isn't a bad haul - this is more upside (though waaay more risk) than they got from the Cubs.

Is this enough to help the Phillies hold off the Mets?