Where would you slot this year's picks in your minor league rankings? For example, how would Tim Beckham compare to Elvis Andrus?

Another interesting thing to consider is where non-draftees (e.g. players who signed at a young age) would go in this year's draft. For example, how high would Andrus or Angel Villalona go were they eligible, given what we now know about them?

I look forward to reading your responses. Thanks.

I took part in a draft tonight, and here are the first two rounds of picks:

Round: 1
(1) Alex Rodriguez 3B
(2) Hanley Ramirez SS
(3) David Wright 3B
(4) Matt Holliday LF
(5) Miguel Cabrera 3B
(6) Ryan Howard 1B
(7) Vladimir Guerrero RF
(8) Jose Reyes SS
(9) Jimmy Rollins SS -- my pick
(10) Ryan Braun 3B

Round: 2
(11) Chase Utley 2B
(12) Prince Fielder 1B -- my pick
(13) Johan Santana SP
(14) Derek Jeter SS
(15) Troy Tulowitzki SS
(16) David Ortiz DH
(17) Jake Peavy SP
(18) Carl Crawford LF
(19) Albert Pujols 1B
(20) Carlos Lee LF

The strangest pick I've ever seen was Felix Hernandez third overall a few years back, but this was the strangest overall. These oddball picks continued for the remainder of the draft, by the way.

What are some of the biggest overreaches you've seen in a fantasy draft?

Former Blue Jay Joe Kennedy died today at the age of 28. That's very shocking and tragic, considering how young he was. There have been an inordinate amount of deaths among current players in the past year, with Cory Lidle and Josh Hancock also dying during that span.

One rumour is that he died of a brain aneurysm, but that's by no means conclusive.

R.I.P. and condolences to the Kennedy family.

Link

Dustin McGowan has a no-no through six innings!

edit: Now through seven innings, as Torgen posted in the comments section.

edit: Eight innings. One left. He would join Dave Stieb as the only Blue Jays to throw a no-hitter.

edit: Didn't happen. It was broken up by Jeff Baker. It's a shame, too, since he had already overcome the strongest part of the order.

Toronto:

Wells
Zaun
Rios
Stairs
Thomas
Hill
Lind
Clark
McDonald

Colorado:

Taveras
Matsui
Holliday
Helton
Atkins
Hawpe
Tulowitzki
Baker
Torrealba

I found this interesting over at Joe Posnanski's blog. Here's one paragraph of his and Bill James's analysis of Stairs:

Matt Stairs

Might be in the Hall of Fame if: I'll let Bill explain.

"Look at it. Somebody decided he was a second baseman, he tears through the minor leagues, gets to Montreal, the Expos take one look at him and say, 'He's no second baseman, get real.' He bounces around, goes to Japan, doesn't really get to play until he's almost 30, then hits 38 homers, slips into a part-time role and hits 15-20 homers every year for 10 years in about 250 at-bats a season. ... You put him in the right park, right position early in his career ... he's going to hit a LOT of bombs."

Very interesting, and it's kind of a shame that he didn't get a real shot when he was younger. I hate  to hear about 'what if...' scenarios like this. Nevertheless, he's managed to have a decent career, and he's useful at his age, though Adam Lind should still get playing time ahead of him.

By the way, I'll be out of town until tomorrow night, though I'll post the next entry in the Top 40 list right when I return. So long.

William Roger Clemens | SP | 1997-1998 | Career Stats

Roger Clemens is the best player to ever don a Blue Jays uniform. Period. In a Hall-of-Fame career that has spanned 23 seasons, Clemens has amassed 7 Cy Young Awards, 348 wins, and a 3.10 ERA in 4817.2 IP. But this list only accounts for his time with the Blue Jays, which spanned a mere two seasons. They were two dominant seasons, in which he re-established himself as the best pitcher in baseball, and perhaps of all-time. Since this list accounts for both peak and longevity, of which, as a Blue Jay, he has plenty of the former but very little of the latter, Clemens is not ranked higher than 19th. Nevertheless, no one on the list spent less time with the organzation, so it's quite an accomplishment that he's ranked in the top 20, let alone the top 40, all-time greatest Blue Jays.

Following the 1996 season, one year removed from the free agent departures of Roberto Alomar, Al Leiter, Paul Molitor, and Devon White, the Blue Jays decided to substantially increase their payroll, which had been in freefall since it was the game's highest only a handful of years earlier (Yes, you read that correctly, the Blue Jays once had the highest payroll in all of baseball).

In addition to signing Clemens to a three-year, $24.75 million contract, which was then a record for a pitcher, the Blue Jays inked Pat Hentgen, who was the reigning Cy Young Award winner, to a three-year contract worth a maximum $20.5 million, depending on whether Hentgen met certain benchmarks. Those two, along with Juan Guzman, who won the AL ERA title the year before, helped form what many predicted to be the best starting rotation in the league. Gord Ash, the former Blue Jays GM who once showed up to a game dressed up as Dr. Evil, voiced his excitement in the January 13, 1997 issue of The Sporting News: "Toronto is a baseball Mecca again. Right now, we have to be the favorites." Of course, the Blue Jays failed to deliver on Ash's optimism, though not because of their pitching. It was Ash's other moves, which were suspect at the time they were made, that spelled their doom. For example, his decision to essentially dump John Olerud (along with $5 million) on the Mets in order to replace him at first base with an aging, unproductive Joe Carter, whom manager Cito Gaston inexplicably favoured over Olerud, cost the team a handful of wins in 1997, as well as plenty more in the future.

Upon his arrival in Toronto, Carlos Delgado changed his uniform number from 21 to 25, for Clemens had worn the former throughout his days in Boston. As a token of his appreciation, Clemens handed Delgado, who at the time had never earned more than the league minimum, a Presidential Rolex watch. Beforehand, Delgado had worn the number 21 in honour of Roberto Clemente, who was a fellow Puerto Rican. But, according to the Boston Herald, he explained his rationale behind the switch:

The way I look at it, it's a seniority thing. He's been in the league 13 years, he's been the MVP, won the Cy Young. He's a great player. I just hope a younger player would do the same for me.

In his first start as a Blue Jay, on April 3, 1997, against the Chicago White Sox, in what was being hyped as a battle between the highest-paid pitcher in the game, Clemens, and the highest-paid player in the game, Albert Belle, who signed a monster five-year, $55 million contract, he pitched a complete game, allowing just one run in a 6-1 victory. With a repertoire that featured five pitches -- a mid-90s four-seam fastball, a forkball, a two-seam fastball, a slider, and a changeup -- Clemens struck out nine batters while walking just one in what would be the first of eleven consecutive wins to start the season, a feat which tied former reliever Dennis Lamp's team record for consecutive wins. His only awful start until then occurred in a home game versus the Seattle Mariners, on April 25, 1997, in which he surrended six earned runs over seven innings. On a personal note, that was the only Clemens start I would personally attend, which was a let down, especially since I had spent a long time hyping him up to my dad, who took me to the game and knew very little about baseball.

Following Clemens's first loss of the season, on June 11, 1997, again versus the Mariners, though this time in the Kingdome, he was slated for an interleague affair against Denny Neagle of the Atlanta Braves. Neagle, who was acquired the season before in a deal that involved a very young Jason Schmidt, was in the midst of a career year, as he was 9-1 with a 3.15 ERA prior to entering that game. It was billed as a matchup between two leading Cy Young candidates, and the results did not indicate otherwise. Both men pitched complete games, with Neagle tossing a five-hit shutout and Clemens racking up twelve strikeouts. Neagle's offspeed stuff, complemented by a decent fastball that allowed him to seamlessly change speeds, disrupted the timing of the Blue Jays hitters, and led to a bevy of lazy fly ball outs. Meanwhile, Clemens delivered heat, which, combined mainly with a deadly split-fingered fastball and pinpoint slider, led to a lot swings and misses. While his record fell to 11-2 following two consecutive losses, he didn't demonstrate all that many signs of slowing down.

At the All-Star break, his numbers were downright incredible, as he sported a 13-3 record to go along with a 1.69 ERA. Of course, he seemed to be the most deserving American League pitcher to start that season's All-Star game, which was played at Jacob's Field in Cleveland. However, since Clemens pitched a shutout against the New York Yankees only two days earlier, Randy Johnson, who was having a fine season in his own regard, got the nod ahead of him. Clemens entered the game in the third inning, sporting a blue glove as a sign of his allegiance to the Blue Jays, and retired the first three hitters in order. Only four days later he would be in Boston to take on his former team, an affair which had been pointed to, discussed, and analyzed everyday since Clemens jumped ship to join the Blue Jays.

Like many athletes who experience high-levels of sustained success, Clemens possesses a lot of confidence (some would employ another, more negative word to describe it). As a result, he was part of a good number of on-field altercations, even before his well-publicized spat with Mike Piazza. For instance, as a brash young pitcher with the Red Sox during the 1980s, he would sometimes yell at opposing hitters who couldn't quite catch up with his deliveries (taken from the April 29, 1997 issue of The Kansas City Star):

Clemens is also the guy who, as former teammate Bill Buckner remembers, would yell sarcastically, "Swing a little harder!" at hitters who flailed hopelessly at his pitches.

In 1988 against the Royals, he yelled at Willie Wilson, who was perched at second base, because Clemens thought Wilson was stealing signs from the catcher and relaying them to George Brett at the plate.

"Who does he think he is?" Wilson said after the game. "He struts around there like, 'Hey man, I'm God. I'm Roger 'God' Clemens, and nobody is going to hit me.'

Well, that same confidence was on display when he returned to Boston on July, 12, 1997. Dan Duquette, who became villified as the man who let Clemens go, was on hand to watch his former star strike out a season-high 16 batters in eight innings to cap off a 3-1 victory, his 14th of the season.

In order to put that into context, let's revisit how the feud between Clemens and Duquette first began. In 1996, Clemens posted a 10-13 record with the Red Sox, leading to a combined record of 40-39 from 1993-1996. Many experts pointed to that run-of-the-mill record as proof that Clemens, who was then 33, was in the twilight of his career. They arrived at this conclusion despite the fact that his ERA+ total in each of those seasons was above 100, including an impressive 177 in 1994. In an article from June 3, 1997, Peter Schmuck of the Charleston Daily Mail explains:

The Rocket is back. Yet he never left.

There's really no great mystery here. Clemens had a nagging groin injury in 1993. His numbers were watered down by the players strike in 1994. He had a sore shoulder in 1995. And his won-lost record didn't reflect his 1996 performance, which included the second 20-strikeout game of his career. Still, four off-peak years are four off-peak years.

As a result of those off-peak years, which would be considered great years for most pitchers, Duquette low-balled Clemens in free agency, as his best offer was a four-year, $20 million deal of which only $10 million was guaranteed. From that, Clemens easily interpreted the message (also from The Kansas City Star):

The only thing that I can really say is that I know from their initial offer that Mr. Duquette put out there, in my heart I know he didn't want me back. He might tell you differently, but I think he is really happy (now).

That's why, after his remarkable performance against the Red Sox, in what is now an infamous event, Clemens tilted his focus upwards and glared at Duquette, who was seated in a private box, likely overcome with twinges of regret.

The rest of the season, Clemens went 7-4 with two more shutouts. He wasn't quite as sharp as he had been earlier in the season, for he allowed six earned runs or more in three of those games down the stretch, one of which was against the Mariners, who seemed to have his number all season long. Nevertheless, he finished with a 21-7 record, a 2.05 ERA, a 1.030 WHIP, and 292 K in 264 IP. He swept the AL triple crown categories (W, ERA, K) and won the Cy Young Award, garnering 25 of 28 first place votes. He finished a distant tenth in MVP voting, behind nine hitters. However, Mike Pindelski of Beyond the Boxscore argues that Clemens was wrongly denied this award, largely because of a widespread anti-pitcher bias that continues to exist among MVP voters:

Only two starters (Johnson in 1913 and Gibson in 1968) and one relief pitcher (Fingers in 1981) top the ERA+ Clemens put up in 1997.  Amazingly, only one MVP Award winning pitcher, once again Johnson in 1913, top the WARP3 Clemens put up in 1997.  

In fact, Clemens Adjusted ERA+ of 226 that season was the 12th highest single season Adjusted ERA+ posted in major league history.

Clemens 1997 season was better than most of the seasons in which pitcher's won the MVP Award. The fact his team didn't make the playoffs along the fact he was pitching during an era in which MVP voters were, and still are, shy to elect pitchers as the most valuable players of each league certainly contributed to his poor showing at the MVP polls if not killed them completely.

But did he deserve the 1997 American League MVP Award?

I would argue he did.  He was the most valuable player among candidates going by WARP, and when compared to other pitchers who have previously won the MVP Award, Clemens stacks up nicely against them.

Furthermore, Clemens's 1997 season could very well be the best single-season output of any pitcher post-1969, when pitching mounds were lowered. The obvious choice for many would be Pedro Martinez, whose peak, many would argue, has never been matched. Others might point to one of Greg Maddux's or Randy Johnson's peak seasons, for either of which cases could easily be made. However, the strength of Clemens's case, especially relative to Martinez and Maddux, lies in the 264 innings he threw that year, which were tied with Hentgen for the most in the majors. For example, in the 2000 season, Martinez posted an ERA+ of 285, the highest such figure in the history of the game. He did so, however, in only 217 IP, 47 fewer innings than Clemens threw in 1997. Others on the Red Sox, whose cumulative ERA+ total was probably around 100, give or take a few, had to chip in to make up the difference. The cumulative ERA+ of Martinez and co., therefore, was probably lower than Clemens's total of 226. That's simply one argument, and it by no means lifts the ubiquitous shadow of doubt that creeps into any conversation concerning the best season among contemporary pitchers.

After a season in which the Blue Jays, who some picked to win the division, finished 76-86, Clemens remained optimistic about the future. In the September 2, 1997 edition of The New York Times, Clemens is quoted as saying:

It's been a pleasure watching Pat and some of the other guys. I've learned a lot about a lot of guys that I only saw from afar. I don't know if it's strange to say, but it's easy to find out about a person when they're winning, but you find out a lot about them through adversity.

I'm glad I got off to a great start with this club. But we're building and looking forward to next year, which is kind of exciting.

Much like the previous offseason, Gord Ash was in spending mode, as he dipped his feet into the free agent pool once again; this time, he lured free agents Randy Myers and Darrin Fletcher to Toronto. Furthermore, Cito Gaston was let go as the team's manager, following a gloried tenure with an organization he had been with, as either its manager or hitting coach, since 1982. He was supplanted by Tim Johnson, who would later become blackballed from the game because he lied about being a veteran of the Vietnam War. Finally, in an attempt to boost the lackluster hitting performance of the year before, Gary Matthews, Sr., the father of Gary Matthews, Jr., who's currently being paid very handsomely as a member of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, was hired as the team's hitting coach.

Meanwhile, in Boston, as a way of tending to the wounds inflicted by Clemens's departure a year earlier, the Red Sox traded for Pedro Martinez, who was the reigning NL Cy Young award winner. That move, of course, was a stroke of genius, and it almost single-handedly kept the Red Sox in contention for years to come.

In 1998, Clemens got off to a slow start by his standards. After soaring to an 11-0 record the season before, he stood at 5-6 with an ERA in the mid-3.00s. This dip in performance was partly due to a slight increase in walks. At the end of May, through 69.1 IP, he had already walked 38 batters, or, by contrast, 14 more batters than he walked during the first two months of 1997, which spanned 82.2 IP. Nevertheless, he was still striking batters out at a fair clip, which helped mitigate his total hits allowed. His slow start could be partly due to a groin injury he suffered in early April that forced him to miss a start and likely lingered into May.

On July 5, 1998, Clemens notched his 3000th career strikeout, as he fanned seven Devil Rays in 7.1 IP. He became only the 11th pitcher to ever record a total that high. Here's how the all-time leaderboard looked at the time, as printed in The Tampa Tribue on July 6, 1998:

In the All-Star game, which David Wells started, Clemens pitched the third inning, in which he got roughed up for two runs. Despite that poor showing, Clemens went on an absolute tear in the second half, ensuring he'd walk away with his second consecutive Cy Young Award. For example, from August 15 - September 5, he pitched 34.1 scoreless innings, the longest such streak of his career. Moreover, from June 3 - September 21, he never lost a game, reeling off 15 straight victories to finish with a mark of 20-6. His ERAs in July, August, and September were 1.73, 0.90, and 2.70, respectively. His walk rate decreased significantly from the first couple months of the season, though his strikeout rate remained as high as it had ever been. He finished the season with a 2.65 ERA, a 1.095 WHIP, and 271 K in 234.2 IP.

While his season totals regressed slightly from 1997's otherworldly effort, he was the unanimous choice for the Cy Young Award. It was the fifth of his career, a total that would eventually be matched by Randy Johnson, though Clemens himself would go on to capture two more, for a total of seven.

After a season in which the Blue Jays failed to make the playoffs once again, despite posting a respectable 88-74 record, Clemens began to voice his displeasure. At the time, he had yet to win a World Series and his individual accomplishments failed to fill the void. For instance, consider a story printed in the November 17, 1998 edition of USA Today:

Toronto pitcher Roger Clemens, who won a record-making fifth Cy Young Award on Monday, isn't sure about his future with the Blue Jays. But he knows this: He's tired of sitting at home in October.

"I'd like to be 10-10 and give me the ball in the playoffs," said Clemens, who has missed the playoffs since 1995 and has not been with a World Series winner in his 16-year career. "That's the objective. I don't hear anything that we're going to catch up with the Yankees, Baltimore and Cleveland."

And so it went. On December 3, 1998, Murray Chass of The New York Times, among others, reported that Clemens had demanded to be traded to a contender. Apparently, before he signed with the Blue Jays, a verbal commitment was made by then-club president Paul Beeston that assured Clemens that the Blue Jays would be in contention throughout the course of his contract. Despite a 12-game improvement between 1997 and 1998, Clemens was not convinced that this team would compete in the near future, and GM Gord Ash had no choice but to comply.

Within a month, however, after some potential trading partners, such as the Houston Astros, balked at Clemens's requests for a high-salary extension, he rescinded his demand to be traded. Nevertheless, he remained open to a trade, and one was soon brought forth. On February 18, 1999, after months of speculation, Clemens was traded to the Yankees for David Wells, Graham Lloyd, and Homer Bush. The trade was an odd one for the Blue Jays, as it demonstrated that, despite losing their best player, they had no desire of rebuilding.

Whether you love him, hate him, or are indifferent towards him, Roger Clemens has proven to be amongst the game's all-time greats, regardless of where he's pitched. In a relatively brief stay in Toronto, he posted perhaps the two greatest seasons ever by a Blue Jays pitcher, and, if perhaps only momentarily, he single-handedly instilled hope and interest in a sport that had quickly fallen into disfavour with the local fans.

Resources: Retrosheet.org and Baseball-Reference.com were great helps, as well as the various newspapers and websites mentioned within the article.

Yet another injury. Look for Jason Phillips to get most of the playing time in his place.

Toronto catcher Gregg Zaun will be placed on the 15-day disabled list after injuring his right hand in Tuesday night's game against Boston.

***

Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi said Zaun had a scan that was inconclusive, so he will see a hand specialist in Baltimore on Wednesday.

hmmm... I noticed our question is the same as the one posted on Blue Jay Way. Strange coincidence.

While typing the entry for the 19th All-Time Greatest Blue Jay (according to us), I came across some numbers that made me look twice.

ERA+ Leaders (for qualified pitchers through April 23, 2007, and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com):

Rich Hill and Tim Hudson are pitching in a completely different stratosphere at the moment. But, more than anything, these ridiculously high numbers (remember, 100 is league average) show that it's early in the season. Players will regress to the mean, and this list will look very similar to past ones. Still, coupled with his second half last season, Hill looks like the real deal. Even with Mark Prior and Kerry Wood MIA, they have two formidable pitchers at the top of their rotation in Hill and Carlos Zambrano.

Most game photos are taken from close range with high-quality cameras that fully capture the experience of being at the game. Well, almost fully, that is. In order to illustrate what's it's like up top, in the 500 level at the Rogers Centre, I've posted some pictures taken by one of my friends from the Friday, April 13 game vs. the Tigers. The quality isn't the best, and, since they were taken from so far away, you can barely make out some of the players. But for those who've never attended a game there, they'll act as sneak peaks of what the experience is like.

The rest of the pics can be accessed by clicking "read more." By the way, the first pic is of a chili race. I think the green one wound up winning.

Continue reading this post »

On the ESPN.com MLB message boards, user bs630 took offense to my grim outlook on Adam Loewen's immediate future:

Loewen

This guy will get absolutely shelled in the near future. Considering his awful peripherals, he's been incredibly fortunate this season.

by mark w

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/story/2007/4/22/85019/9930

He walked a few guys," Toronto manager John Gibbons said. "But he got a lot of ground ball outs and some key strikeouts. That kid is only going to get better. His ball is so lively."

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2007/04/22/4102855-sun.html

Loewen is walking a lot of batters, but he is giving up less than a hit per IP, has an opposing SLG of .310, and has a 2/1 G/F rate. Gibbons is right and mark w only proves that there are still a lot of Canadians who don't understand baseball.

Being given the opportunity to pitch out of situations like last night and continuing to work with Mazzone, Loewen will only improve. Perlozzo and Mazzone are handling Loewen like they did Bedard. It will work with Loewen too. Good job.

Since I didn't include a qualifier in my comment, I think it's fair to assume that bs360 inferred that I meant Loewen would pitch poorly, regardless of whether his peripherals improve. Of course, if he maintains his current K/BB rate of 19/13, no one could persuasively argue that his ERA wouldn't significantly increase, despite his low HR/9 and his high GB rate.

Well, I wasn't completely going in the direction of the former, since Loewen's track record is far too short to have a good feel for his true value. Nevertheless, he's an interesting case, so let's take a closer look to draw some tentative conclusions.

In 2006, Loewen pitched 112.1 innings, while this season he's already pitched 19.1. From those numbers, it seems that Loewen induces a lot of groundballs, which explains his very low HR/9 totals, though, coupled with his reduced K/9 rate, it means that he's become very reliant on his defense. Last season, the Orioles didn't help him out much, as they ranked 26th out of 30 teams in defense efficiency, which was in line with previous seasons. This season, they currently rank 23rd. Of course, that's a bad sign for Loewen, whose eDER is quite high because of an abnormally low LD%. Moreover, his RA totals show he's prone to allowing unearned runs, which is normal for a groundball pitcher.

In his player profile of Tim Hudson, Marc Normandin voices concern about the strategy employed by groundball pitchers who rely a lot on their defense:

Essentially, even though Hudson was probably not as good a pitcher as he had been just two years before, he was putting up better numbers due to his groundball rates. This is a strategy that works very well if you have a solid or great defense behind you, but once you stop striking batters out, start handing out free passes to first base again, and lose the incredible infield defense that used to back you (read: get traded to Atlanta later on in life), it catches up to you.

What also jumps out at me is Loewen's high LOB%, especially relative to his K/9 rate. Players with high K/9 rates are more likely to leave more men on base, since strikeouts, as we all know, are often vital to keeping men on base. For example, while groundballs and flyballs still induce outs, they often advance runners, too. Anything in the .75% range is a very high LOB% total, and it's a good indicator of a low ERA, which Loewen possesses at the moment. But, due to his low K/9 rate, it appears that it's an aberration rather than a harbinger of what's to come. For instance, Zach Duke, another young lefthander, experienced this regression last season, after his LOB% dropped from 84.2% to 69.9%. His ERA increased dramatically as a result. For a more extensive explanation of this, you should read Anthony A. Perri's article at Insider Baseball.

So what, right? These numbers won't mean anything if Loewen improves his true value as a pitcher under the tutelage of Leo Mazzone. But, even from a scout's perspective, the jury is still out on Loewen's potential. For example, Keith Law said the following in his most recent ESPN.com chat:

Matt (Springfield, MO): Is Loewen going to get his "stuff" together? Is he any good?

SportsNation Keith Law: His stuff is only OK, and his control has never been good. I think that the "real" Adam Loewen was left on the operating table when he tore his labrum in '04.

Loewen has 7.7 BB/9 (85.5%) compared to the league average of about 3.5 BB/9 (38.8%). Through 19.1 IP, the 95% confidence interval for walks in 19.1 IP for a league average player would be between 3 and 12. At his rate, Loewen is well beyond that range, which suggests that he won't suddenly start walking batters at a league average clip, despite the small sample size.

Nevertheless, in fairness to bs630, I might have been somewhat hasty in my assertion. However, a rebound by Loewen is by no means imminent, and, judging by his small sample in the majors, it's safe to say that his ERA will rise, though likely not as much as his peripherals would suggest. Still, barring a complete turnaround, a marked regression should occur as the season progresses. Prior to the season, Marcels, which simply predicts future totals by using weighted averages regressed to the major league mean, forecasted Loewen's ERA at 4.41. I'm slightly more skeptical, based on this season's rates, so I'd add about a quarter of a run (and maybe more) to that total. So, Loewen could very well prove to be valuable, but not at his current rate.

Thomas Anthony Henke | P | 1985-1992 | Career Stats

Tom Henke, at 6'5", 215 lb. and known as "The Terminator," was an intimidating presence on the mound, despite his preference for oversized glasses. He was essentially the Blue Jays' first closer, since, prior to his arrival, the team record for most saves in a season was 11, set by Dale Murray in 1982. Of course, at the time, the game experienced a shift in the way managers utilized relief pitchers. Relief duties had become far more categorized, as pitchers were placed into subgroups, such as closer, setup man, lefty specialist, and mop-up reliever. Henke, with an absolutely nasty combination of a mid-90s fastball and a devastating, strikeout inducing forkball, became one of the game's predominant closers. In his time with the Blue Jays, during which they were perennial contenders as well as World Champions, he was the core of one of the most successful bullpens of that era, and he is the highest-ranked relief pitcher on our list.

After being drafted by the Texas Rangers in the fourth round of the 1980 amateur draft, Henke joined the Blue Jays in 1984 as a compensatory pick for former Blue Jays DH Cliff Johnson, who signed with the Rangers as a free agent. In hindsight, it was absolutely foolish that the Rangers left Henke unprotected, in what sportswriter Moss Klein called "... a transaction that now looks like legalized burglary" in the Oct. 10, 1991 issue of The Sporting News. In fact, to make matter worse for the Rangers, Johnson would return to the Blue Jays less than one year later. At the time, however, Henke was a 26-year-old minor leaguer, whose brief callups to the majors produced cringe-inducing results, as evidenced by his 6.35 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in 28.1 IP with the Rangers in 1984. But, as was the case with Randy Johnson and various others, tall pitchers with great stuff often require more time to develop enough control to successfully compete against major league hitters. Furthermore, Henke's K/9 totals were so high that they somewhat offset his high walk rates, which gave hope to the Blue Jays that he could have been of use to them.

Following his acquisition, Henke spent about half the 1985 regular season with the Syracuse Skychiefs, the Blue Jays' AAA affiliate. Prior to his mid-season callup, Henke posted an 0.88 ERA, a 0.60 WHIP, 60 K, and 18 SV in 51.1 IP. As a result, he was the International League's leading vote-getter for the All-Star game. He then went on to compile a 2.03 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, 42 K, and 13 SV in 40 IP with the Blue Jays in the remainder of that season. In what seems rather ridiculous now, those 13 saves broke the aforementioned record of 11 posted by Dale Murray three years before.

As a Blue Jay, Henke never had to carry the brunt of the relief load on his own, for he normally worked in tandem with another great reliever. At the beginning, he teamed with Mark Eichhorn, who would later be replaced by an up-and-coming Duane Ward. In 1986, Henke's second season with the Blue Jays, he and Eichhorn formed the best relief tandem in the game. Eichhorn's 1986 season was otherworldly, and it certainly deserved far more recognition than it received. Nevertheless, Henke, whose season was impressive in its own right, remained firmly entrenched as the team's primary closer. Henke's 3.35 ERA that season was a notch or two above what it should have been, considering his exceptional peripheral stats. However, he pitched so many fewer innings than Eichhorn, whose 157 IP as a reliever seem outlandish by today's standards, that his true ERA was masked by poor luck. To further expand on this premise, wins, a category that is far more luck-dependent than most others, did not come easily for Henke during this time, for he pitched in 120 consecutive games without recording one, according to the Baseball Library.

In 1987, for the third straight season, Henke set a team record for saves, with 34. He also made the All-Star team for the first time in his career, in which he fittingly pitched during the 9th inning. Surprisingly, at 29 years of age, Henke was the eldest member of the Blue Jays' bullpen, and the bulk of the praise and accolades were pointed in his direction. For instance, after the season, Thomas Boswell of The Washington Post -- one of many others, to be sure -- sang Henke's praises and touted him as a legitimate Cy Young candidate:

Tom Henke and Steve Bedrosian for the Cy Young awards. Yes, even though they're relief pitchers. Please, don't let the awards go to Jimmy Key, Jack Morris, Frank Viola, Roger Clemens, Rick Sutcliffe or Orel Hershiser.

***

For instance, how can Key win the top award when Henke, on his own staff, has 34 saves, a 2.49 earned run average and one of the best ratios of strikeouts-to-innings in history (128 in 94)? Okay, so Henke's record is 0-6. A winless Cy Young winner sure would be memorable. But relievers aren't supposed to get wins; it usually means they blew a save. Zero is good.

If not Henke, then either Dave Righetti or even high-ERA Jeff Reardon (38 wins-plus-saves) have had better years by relief standards than Clemens or Stewart have had for starters. Reardon was the key to Minnesota's division championship.

In the end, Boswell was correct about Bedrosian, who captured the NL Cy Young award in one of the closest votes in history, as he outscored Rick Sutcliffe 57-55. Henke, meanwhile, did not receive one vote; however, nine others did, with Roger Clemens taking home the hardware.

Boswell appeared to misguided, though, despite the fine seasons by Henke and Bedrosian. The starting pitchers named within the excerpt pitched far more innings than either reliever, with a difference of more than 150 IP in most cases. Furthermore, the numbers posted by Henke and Bedrosian were not astoundingly superior to the starters' -- unlike Eric Gagne's 2003 season, for instance -- which meant that the difference in IP simply could not be made up.

At the start of the 1989 season, Henke encountered his first extended bout with adversity. In the first five weeks of the season, Henke compiled a mere 6.1 IP, which included three blown saves in five opportunities. In a home game against Seattle, Henke was booed loudly by a packed SkyDome crowd upon his arrival in the game. According to the May 8, 1989 edition of The Toronto Star, Henke took the harsh reaction well, stating that "It's their privilege." However, the team's pitching coach at the time, Al Widmar, voiced his displeasure when he said, "All those people on him because of the bad time he's going through are forgetting all the good things he's done for the team." As it turns out, Widmar was right, not simply because 6.1 IP is far too small a sample size to incite merited wide-scale booing, but because Henke rebounded to have one of the best seasons of his career. The October 3, 1989 edition of USA Today, includes the following quote by Henke:

I was struggling because I had something like six innings in six weeks. It hurt. I can look back on it now and laugh because it wasn't as bad as it seemed earlier.

By season's end, he posted a 1.92 ERA, a 1.022 WHIP, 116 K, and 20 SV in 89 IP. Unfortunately, the low saves totals led some -- Boswell likely included -- to dismiss his season as a down year.

In 1991, a hard-throwing young pitcher named Duane Ward emerged as one of the game's best relief pitchers. By that point, he had been with the Blue Jays for three full seasons, but he never really took flight until his fourth full campaign. His K/9 and BB/9 totals improved significantly, which led to a sharp decrease in his ERA and WHIP. Conversely, Henke was 33 years old, six years Ward's senior, a time when the injury bug is not only contracted more often, but also lasts a lot longer. In April of that year, Henke went on the disabled list with a pulled groin muscle that was acquired while fielding balls during practice. Ward, who amassed 12 saves in 13 chances during Henke's departure, stepped in admirably. And so it became clear that Henke, who would become a free agent after the 1992 season, had a successor waiting in the wings.

Not one to back down easily, Henke came back firing, as he set a major league record for consecutive saves with 24, from April 9 - August 7, 1991. The associated press published a list of the consecutive saves leaders at the time, which was, not surprisingly, full of Henke's contemporaries:

Leading consecutive save opportunities converted since 1988 when blown saves were recorded on a major league-wide basis:

24 - Tom Henke, Toronto, 1991 (April 9 - August 7).

23 - John Franco, Cincinnati, 1988 (July 1 - September 11).

23 - Rob Dibble, Cincinnati, 1991 (April 8 - July 16).

21 - Doug Jones, Cleveland, 1988 (May 13 - August 11).

20 - Dennis Eckersley, Oakland, 1990 (April 10 - June 12).

19 - Dennis Eckersely, Oakland, 1990 (June 15 - August).

Of course, Eric Gagne now holds the record, with a total that dwarfs the ones listed above, though that should not take anything away from Henke's accomplishment.

In 1992, Henke posted yet another stellar season. He finished with a 2.26 ERA, a 1.114 WHIP, 46 K, and 34 SV in 55.2 IP. Ward was absolutely unbelievable that season, while racking up almost twice as many IP as Henke. The two teamed up to help a stacked Blue Jays roster capture the organization's first World Championship, only 15 years after its inception. It was clear, however, that Ward's presence made Henke expendable. In 1992, despite the fact that Henke voiced a desire to stay in Toronto, he signed with the Rangers, who narrowly beat out the Boston Red Sox for his services. The 2-year-$8 million contract he received no doubt played a role in the Blue Jays' decision to not retain his services.

Top 10 Toronto Blue Jays Pitching Ranks (min. 500 IP):

Shannon Harold Stewart | OF | 1995-2003 | Career Stats

Shannon Stewart, whose name might not immediately conjure up baseball-related thoughts, was the personification of a natural - a player who gave off the impression that he could roll out of bed, shake off any side-effects from the night before, and hit .300. A three-sport athlete -- baseball, football, and track -- in high school, his athleticism led to high early-career batting averages and stolen base totals. Those numbers were somewhat hollow, however, for he did not walk enough to take full advantage of his high batting average nor did he steal successfully enough to overcome his high caught stealing totals. Nevertheless, when healthy, his offense was worthy of an everyday spot in the lineup, as was his above average defense.

Stewart was selected in the first round, 19th overall, of the 1992 amateur entry draft. With history as our guide, that draft, on the whole, was not very memorable, though it did manage to produce Derek Jeter, who is in the midst of a Hall of Fame career. Stewart rose through the minor league ranks quickly, as he never repeated a full season at the same level. He never displayed much power during those years, for the most home runs he ever managed in a season was six, in 1996. However, he displayed the ability to walk more often than he struck out, thus leading to high on-base totals. As a result, he earned his first cup of coffee with the Blue Jays in 1995, as well as another, albeit slightly briefer one, in 1996.

Following the 1997 season, the 1998 Sports Forecaster magazine -- my copy appears disheveled due to the amound I read it as a kid -- labeled Stewart a potential star:

The Jays hope this speedy center fielder will be a part of their outfield for the next decade.... Speed is his meal ticket. The 24-year-old sophomore should be able to steal close to 50 bases per season. Add that to a good eye at the plate and his OBP/SB potential and his OBP/SB potential is solid enough for him to grow into an all-star leadoff man, in time. His arm isn't the strongest, but his range makes up for it.

By 1998, he was in the majors for good, starting in left field for a surgung Blue Jays team whose outfield featured the impressive young trio of Stewart, who manned left field; Jose Cruz, Jr., who was pilfered from Seattle for Paul Spoljaric and Mike Timlin, who patrolled center field; and Shawn Green, who possessed an absolute rocket for an arm, who was in right field. That trio never quite fulfilled its potential, as it turned out, but they were far from flops, especially Green. With a rejuvenated Jose Canseco at DH and the always formidable Carlos Delgado at 1B, the Blue Jays posted 88 wins that season, an impressive total that was unfortunately dwarfed by the two superpowers, New York (A) and Boston, the former of which won an otherworldly 114 games.

Stewart's 51 stolen bases that season ranked third in the American League. However, despite that high total, he was caught stealing 18 times, which led to a SB% of just under 74%. The break even point for stealing second base is about 73%, which means that anything below that mark actually hampers the team's success, high SB totals notwithstanding. In fact, in 1998, his CS total was the second highest in the AL, while his CS total of 14 the following year was the highest. His SB% totals were perennially too low for him to ever have been considered a top base stealer. Unfortunately, despite that harsh fact, the acclaim he received generally revolved around his basestealing abilities, not his other above average attributes. The following excerpt, taken from the Preview Sports' 2000 Fantasy Baseball magazine, is but one example:

Blazing speed and solid contact make Stewart one of the best outfielders in the league, which he should remain for years to come. The stolen base total dropped due to ankle problems late last season, but he should rebound and return to the 50+ level in 2000.

That quote indicates how much reliance analysts had on hollow, uninformative statistics such as AVG and SB. To be fair to these particular authors, however, in standard 5x5 fantasy leagues, which glorify such stats, they are rather important.

Okay, after debunking prevailing perceptions, it is time to focus on Stewart's positives, of which there were quite a few. While his production certainly did not the fit mold of the traditional corner outfielder, he posted above average OPS totals during his final three-plus seasons as a Blue Jay. Despite so-so home run power, he managed to post respectable SLG totals due to his ability to manufacture doubles, as he hit more than 40 in three separate seasons. His ability to reach base was mostly dependent on his batting average, but, since he managed to hit .300 or above virtually every season, his OBP was comfortably in the .360-.375 range every season. Of course, that is rather impressive, though not incredibly high relative to other leadoff hitters. Nevertheless, during his tenure with the Blue Jays, he fit that role better than any of his teammates, many of whom, like Tony Batista and Alex Gonzalez, neither walked nor hit for a high average.

On the defensive side, as mentioned in one of the above excerpts, Stewart's range was quite impressive, though his poor arm detracted from his value to an extent. For the most part, that explains why he primarily manned LF, since leftfielders, due to their advantageous position on the field, need not possess similar arm strength those in CF or RF. His Rate2 totals, as listed on Baseball Prospectus, were above average every season except 1999 and 2002. Once he left the Blue Jays, though, age and injuries sapped his speed, which not only reduced his SB totals, but also his range in LF. As a result, his defense was never quite the same, as it was average to below average from that point onwards.

One of Stewart's highlights as a Blue Jay included a 26-game hitting streak from August 1-29, 1999. Also, despite my obsession with his CS totals, he managed to never get caught more than once in a game, instead doing so exactly once in 67 separate affairs.

Top 10 Toronto Blue Jays Batting Ranks (min. 2000 PA):

Scott from Camden Chat recently posted the Orioles-related portion of the discussion. Check it out if you have time.

2. Is this the year Daniel Cabrera finally breaks out? He was widely believed to be a breakout candidate last year, especially with Leo Mazzone coming aboard, but he struggled right off the bat. He did improve towards the end of the season, though. Is Mazzone finally getting through to him?

Marc Normandin: I've watched Cabrera pitch brilliantly and incredibly poorly, but you can see that he has a lot of talent. He picked up on Mazzone's lessons a bit later in the year, and you could see he was a bit better of a pitcher than he had been earlier in the year, but he's not quite there yet. I still think he can turn into a serious pitcher-and hope he does, with all the ability he has-and along with Bedard, can form one of the best 1-2 combos in the majors. The Orioles are going to need that to happen, and it's certainly a possibility. I think the O's have more positives going for them than we give them credit for, but they're stuck in the AL East, and you can't luck your way into the playoffs there for the most part.

Hey, everyone. Here's a quick roundtable discussion about the 2007 Blue Jays. I hope you enjoy it.

Participants:

Pinstripe Alley (Anaconda)
Over The Monster (Randy Booth)
Bluebird Banter (Mark Willis-O'Connor)
Camden Chat (Scott Christ)
DRays Bay (Patrick Kennedy)
Beyond The Boxscore (Marc Normandin)

1. The Blue Jays finished higher than third place last year for the first time since 1993. Have they overtaken the Red Sox as the Yankees' chief competition in the AL East? Where will they finish this year?

Pinstripe Alley: Jays will finish in 3rd place. The Red Sox seem to have improved enough to jump them in the standings.

Over The Monster: No, they are not the new number two in the American League East. The reason the Blue Jays surpassed the Sox last season is because the Sox beat themselves with injuries. The Blue Jays are a great team - I certainly can admit that - but they still don't have the fire power that the Red Sox have. They've got talented players like Vernon Wells and Troy Glaus, but I don't see some of their players, like Alex Rios, being great players for the rest of their careers. I think the Blue Jays will come in third - just like the good ol' days - right in front of the Orioles and Devil Rays.

Bluebird Banter: Sadly, I'll have to side with the others on this one. Based on the roster in place, as well as the lackluster farm system J.P. Ricciardi has assembled, their window of opportunity appears to be rather narrow. Last season was likely their best shot at the playoffs,
especially now that the Red Sox have restocked and the Yankees have smartened up. The situation isn't hopeless, though, because the Blue Jays do have a strong core in place, led by Roy Halladay, the best pitcher in the entire division. However, they lack the roster depth of the two superpowers, and must win via alternative methods. Unless they replenish their farm system or drastically increase their payroll, they will always be considered third best, for they simply cannot hope to contend long term with the Yankees and Red Sox without using an alternative organizational strategy.

Camden Chat: No, they aren't the chief competition for New York, and they aren't the chief competition for Boston, either, as that title still belongs to the Yankees. They are a good team, but the buck stops there - they finished one game ahead of a battered Red Sox team last year. If Frank Thomas stays in the lineup, I really like the middle of their order, but Wells, Thomas and Glaus are not as good as Ramirez, Ortiz and a healthy J.D. Drew, either. Their rotation is as potentially flaky as Boston's, maybe moreso. They had a good year in 2006, but they have a
couple of starters (Rios and Johnson) that need to prove they can do that again, and I'm not sold, personally. They're going to drop this year, and I think it's possible they could fall to fourth if the Orioles get their pitching straightened out.

DRays Bay: I certainly don't think so. I don't think one year will, in the long run, reverse the precedent. The Red Sox just merely had a worse than normal year, and the margin by which Toronto finished ahead of Boston was slim anyways. With the upgrades Boston made this offseason, I
really don't see them being usurped by the Blue Jays just yet. Toronto is doing their best free spending imitation of Boston and New York, but
ultimately the Red Sox and Yankees are on a different level with regards to spending, and as a result it will be very hard to displace them at
the top for any sustained period of time. I see Toronto finishing third this year in the division, although it is entirely possible that they would reach 90 wins in falling back one spot.

Marc Normandin: I like the Jays more than most, but they have some problems. Their hitters are incredible at the Rogers Centre, but not quite
as good on the road-see Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Troy Glaus for some eye-popping splits on that note-and their rotation is still a serious question mark, although I really like the strategy employed this winter by signing Ohka, Thomson, and everyone else with a pulse who was at one point deemed a useful starter. I don't see them as the chief competition for the Yankees though; the Red Sox were a bit overrated last year, and injuries helped drive them down towards where they belonged, but with the additions they have made to their roster in comparison to what the Jays have done, I don't see 2007 being as close as some may make it out to be. Anything can happen over 162 games though, as we've seen many a time in the past.

2. The Blue Jays spent $126 million to keep Vernon Wells in Toronto for the seven seasons beyond 2007. Good move or bad, and why?

Pinstripe Alley: Good move. Wells is one of the best young players in the game. It's never a bad idea to sign those kind of players to long-term deals.

Over The Monster: Great move. The Blue Jays have the money to spend and they spent it wisely. They didn't spend it on a free agent that had a great season in a contract year. They spent it on a proven player that is only going to get better. They locked up the face of the franchise for seven more years. How many other teams - right now - can say that? They made a smart decision and they'll be rewarded by seven really good years out of their center fielder.

Bluebird Banter: This move must be placed in some sort of context. If it doesn't hamper Ricciardi's ability to acquire talent or displace a superior player from CF, then it should be fine. In regards to the former, Ted Rogers hasn't shied away from raising the team's payroll, nor has there been any indication that he will act differently in the future. But the latter is what may present a problem, since Alex Rios' defence appears to be well-suited for CF. Moreover, if Wells were moved from CF in the future, as his defence is likely to decline with age, his offence wouldn't be that great relative to corner outfielders. I like the move based on what he'll contribute at the moment, but it definitely presents some major long-term concerns.

Camden Chat: Wells' profile isn't terribly dissimilar from Carlos Beltran's, and the Jays made a good move in locking up their center fielder before they had to fight someone else with deep pockets for him in free agency. He'll be a good player for the rest of his contract, probably. If you've got the money to spend, which Toronto obviously does, then you're a fool to not use it for a situation like this.

DRays Bay: How good this move is depends a lot on the financial shape of the Blue Jays. I don't really know where they are. They have been a mid to low payroll ballclub in the past, but with the sudden infusion of cash in the previous few years from Rogers, I'm not really sure where they stand. I very much doubt they are self-sustaining with their current spending spree, so I don't know how long it will be until the flow of money is cut off at the spigot. But if Toronto can afford the salary, and they can eat the contract if things go wrong, it can never really be a horrible move, and the presence of Wells no doubt helps improve the ballclub. From a strictly production for money standpoint though, it is a terrible deal. Wells has had exactly two seasons of great offensive production, the rest have been merely good, and this has evened out to a .303/.336/.492 career batting line. That's a pretty good player, but a $126 million player? I think not. Further, when this contract expires after the 2014 season, Wells will be 35 years old, not exactly on the upswing of his career. And the deal is structured so that the Jays will have to pay Wells $21 million in the final year of the agreement. Again, if they can afford the deal it isn't necessarily bad for them, but I can't imagine the flow of cash running forever, and if the Jays don't have substantial on-field success in the next few years they could be swimming in quite a bit of red ink by the time this contract terminates. Again, without knowing where Toronto really is financially, it is hard to fully evaluate the deal, but I'll tell you one thing: I wouldn't bet on Wells giving you anywhere close to $126 million worth of production over the life of this contract.

Marc Normandin: I like this for the first few years of the deal, although once the price picks up after a few seasons it's an awful contract. Wells is one of the more overrated players in the game, who relies on his home park to boost his stats and isn't quite as incredible defensively as he used to be. I'm going to catch a lot of crap for this, but going forward, I like Alex Rios better than Vernon Wells. His splits are much, much less severe, and he's a great defender in his own right.

Also, if Wells dips back down to his 2004-2005 production at the plate, the Jays will be paying $18 million AAV for an aging centerfielder who
will need to be moved off the position as he continues to put on weight without hitting like a corner guy. I don't really see where the idea of
Wells being a proven player who will only get better comes from.

3. Will the Jays miss Ted Lilly? He wasn't great, but he did start 25 games each of the past three seasons, which is more than you can say
about any other Jays starter. Can the staff just stay healthy?

Pinstripe Alley: For all of his faults, Lilly did eat up some innings for that team last season. That said, he's not exactly irreplaceable.

Over The Monster: They'll miss Ted Lilly, but they're really not going to be thinking about Lilly once Halladay wins the American League Cy
Young. That's if he's healthy, of course, which I think he will be. Lilly was a strong starter for the Jays, but he wasn't going to win the division for them anytime soon. Plus, he was overpaid and they have better things to spend their money on at this point.

Bluebird Banter: Lilly's production will be missed to an extent, of course. Players of his calibre, while not stars, are important pieces to any successful organization. But he's replaceable, and his production won't be missed if any of his potential replacements come through.

Camden Chat: They're going to miss Lilly if Gustavo Chacin or someone can't rebound and do the job that Lilly did, and possibly do it better and much cheaper. Lilly is a solid major league starter, but the Cubs paid a premium for that service, and the Jays probably assume they can replace Lilly pretty easily, either in-house or with one of their cheap free agent pickups. They very well may be right, too.

DRays Bay: The Jays will probably miss Lilly a little, but for the contract he signed with Chicago he wasn't worth the cost to keep around. Then again, looking at Toronto's previous two offseasons, the cost for production factor hasn't stopped them from overspending before, so I'm not really sure why they got stingy here. But as for the Jays, they will miss Lilly a little because now they have to slot someone inferior into the No. 5 hole in the rotation, be in John Thomson or whomever. How inferior that particular pitcher will be depends on which Ted Lilly shows up next year. While he is consistent with respect to eating innings, his numbers have never really been that great, and his walk rates have risen dramatically in the last three years. How that translates to Wrigley Field, I don't know, but the Jays will miss Lilly. How much they'll miss him is dependant on which one shows up this year.

Marc Normandin: The Jays will miss Lilly if neither Ohka or Thomson works out for them. Chacin will also need to stay healthy, and if Josh Towers can shave roughly 37.00 points off of his ERA, he'll be a decent option. Chances are good that either Ohka or Thomson will pitch decently for Toronto, or that both of them will combine for an average-ish year, which will help fill the void left by Lilly's departure. Losing him hurts, but signing him to a comparable deal to the one the Cubs gave him would hurt more.

The final part of the roundtable. Thanks to everyone who participated.

Bluebird Banter: Can the Blue Jays realistically compete in the AL East, both now and long term?

Alpheus: If everything breaks right, I don't see why not. The Jays definitely have enough talent to win this upcoming season. However, we also need some of our prospects to break out and perform at or near their talent level. The biggest problem the Jays had the past couple season was due to hot shot prospects not living up to expectations (Josh Phelps, Guillermo Quiroz, Dustin McGowan, to name a few). Aside from Alex Rios, there hasn't been a top prospect in the Jays organization that actually made significant contribution at the major league level since Vernon Wells. I think we are due for some better luck with prospects. However, even if some of our prospects bust out big time, we also have to best the revamped Red Sox and the rebuilding Yankees (as much as you can rebuild with a $150mil payroll). I think the team to beat in the AL East in 2007 is the Red Sox, although there are uncertainties, their rotation has the potential to be deadly, which will offset any problems they have in their bullpen. In addition, any team with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz hitting 3-4 will not have problems scoring runs, the rumours of them getting Todd Helton only made me more concern about facing this Red Sox team this upcoming season. On the other hand, I feel like the Yankees are at a transitional stage this moment, they are set to peak a year or two down the road. Despite his struggles, trading away Randy Johnson is going to hurt the Yankees this upcoming year. The back end of the Yankees rotation looks even more suspect than the Jays before the signing of Thomson and Ohka. In addition, losing Gary Sheffield will not help their chances in 2007, his bat will be missed by the Yankees this upcoming season. On the other hand, the moves that Brian Cashman made this offseason set them up for prolonged success in the future. The Yankees have arguably the best group of Right-Handed pitching prospects in baseball. Philip Hughes looks to be the real deal but likely won't be ready to make a huge impact until 2008. For the Yankees, age and injuries is always a concern, I say 2007 will be an off year for them but they will storm back with vengence in 2008. For these reasons, I believe the Jays has a better chance to win it all in the near future than the long term future. Our farm system and economical situation indicates that the Yankees and the Red Sox will once again come out on top going into the next decade. The upcoming draft, with 7 picks in the first 100, will be crucial to our long-term success.

bigearcreations: It has frustrated me these last number of years when people say that the Blue Jays can NEVER compete with the Red Sox and Yankees.  That's extremely shortsighted perspective.  Everything is cyclical.  Dollar values change.  Ownerships change.  Minor League Systems change.  Philosophies change.  It wasn't that long ago that Mike Pagliarulo and (still free wheeling) Yankees where the laughing stock of the East.  Long term is LONG TERM and there are many variables so of course they CAN compete.

This year, I think the Jays are still a couple of starters short of being a genuine contender.  Add a Buehrle or two mid-season if they are able to stay close (and I think they can stay close) and then the situation changes.  But "adding a Buehrle" is not easy.  If was easy, the name Josh Towers would never be heard again.

easyrichboy: Hells yeah the Jays can compete. They're just going about it the wrong way. Save that money that keeps getting thrown your way- stop spending every available penny you have on mediocrity. Fact: free agents demand more $$$ to come to Canada . SO, stop pissing about with free agents- trade expensive talent for cheap talent.

At least we aren't trading much in the way of talent for big names (yet).

Sadly, the Jays are looking a lot more like Baltimore than Oakland right now.

hugo: I think so.  I think the Yankees' spending is coming down to earth now that the full implications of the luxury tax has hit and they realize that not only are they wasting money, but when they do so they are actually kicking money back in for other teams to lock up their Santanae, and Bondermen, and Sheets'.  I also think the Jays have increased payroll to the point that the only thing remaining to do is to continue to improve the farm system, and to make smart moves to keep the team moving in the right direction.  While I agree it is tough to compete in the AL East, its rigor means that once the Jays make it through, they will be that much more prepared for the playoffs.  Who wants to see a team squeak through a weak division year after year only to get knocked out of the playoffs in the first round because they have not addressed a significant element of the game?  The rigor of the East has forced the Jays to acquire top players and to attempt to improve all areas of the team while also preparing for the long haul.  That's not a bad thing.  I also think this draft (and all the picks) represent a great chance for the Jays to restock the farm system and get some real high-ceiling guys, some difference makers, into the system.

Allan: They better.

Bluebird Banter: Do you think J.P. Ricciardi is the right man for the job? What are his strengths? Weaknesses?

Allan: No idea. When he is fired/resigns I will evaluate his success entirely. Who knows, he may win us a championship or make the worst trade in history. Time will tell.

hugo: It is difficult to evaluate J.P. because he has not been, in my opinion, particularly creative in his tenure as GM.  I think this is a significant weakness, and probably his biggest.  His drafting has not been horrible but has certainly not been shown to have been great, his free agent acquisitions have mixed records but have certainly helped the team more often than not, and his trades have generally been fine.  But he hasn't shown a true long-term vision or skill for outmaneuvering other GMs when it comes to identifying overlooked areas and exploiting market inefficiencies/bargains.  I think a GM needs time (so long as they show something), but I sense that JP's time will run out quickly if the Jays have a disappointing season this year.  I don't think that will happen, but I do think JP could benefit from a little more strategic thinking.

easyrichboy: Yeah he's the right man for the job! He just seems to be caving in to pressure. Admit that we're gonna suck for a couple years and build a decent team. Stop spending money just cuz it's there.  J.P. needs to remember his roots and read Moneyball one more time. Yeah I know the A's haven't won since 1989- but they've contended almost every year. There's a good reason for this.

      ***As an aside, if any of you haven't read Moneyball, you really need to. It is a fantastic baseball book with TONS of brilliant insights and frankly just a damn good story. i read it to my son Hudson while he was still in the womb. So far he's looking like a totally awesome (under-rated) left-handed pitcher. Sweeee-eeet.

bigearcreations: Honestly, it's been a rare occasion that I haven't agreed with his moves at the time they were made.  But I've always been a believer that he came into Toronto with a long-term plan, and many of his decisions have been made within the framework of that plan.  Therefore, I believe that he's been justified in choices like dumping Carpenter (which hurts now, but remember how you felt at the time?)  

That said, its fish or cut bait time.  Either it comes together or it's time to evaluate again.  One area that he's been shockingly poor at is building the farm system.  Evaluating talent doesn't solely fall under a General Manager's job description... but as the visionary... he sets the course.  And JP's course has been white American college kids.  It's been too narrow a focus (duh), and it's coming back to bite him pretty good and hard.  Oh for the days of Eppy Guerrero and the San Pedro de Macoris baseball factory!  

Alpheus: Like every GM, J.P. Ricciardi has his strength and weaknesses. I think he has done a good job identifying and acquiring established talents that has continued their production in a Blue Jays uniform (e.g. B.J. Ryan, A.J. Burnett, Lyle Overbay), and finding washed up ballplayers that rejuvenates their career as a Blue Jay(Greg Zaun, Greg Myers, etc.). However, I feel like Ricciardi lacks a long term vision that is an essential quality of a good GM. Unlike Billy Beane, who is very good at selling high and buying low, Ricciardi has an opposite tendency of buying high and selling low. In many instances over the past couple seasons, Ricciardi refuses to trade his impending free-agents for one reason or another to improve the future prospects of the team. For example, Ricciardi should've pulled the plug on Hillenbrand before it boiled over into the Hillengate scandal; Hillenbrand should've been traded in April when his value peaked. I also thought Ricciardi should've pursued trading Ted Lilly and Justin Speier actively at the deadline, where there was high demand for pitchers. I am afraid that the Vernon Wells signing is another case where Ricciardi is buying high at a time where he should be selling. If the Jays don't get to the playoffs by in the next two seasons, I predict the Jays will fire Ricciardi.

(Big ups to easyrichboy for the header)

Part deux...

Bluebird Banter: The game appears to be flush with money, thus inflating the free agent market and organizational budgets. To what extent should our perceptions of free agent contracts adapt to this?

Furthermore, now that budgets are on the rise and plenty of teams are willing to take on large contracts in lopsided trades (i.e. last season's Bobby Abreu deal), is it now much more difficult for GMs to handcuff their team's long-term potential with overpriced contracts?

bigearcreations: Greatly.  There is no reason why owners who are making money should not be paying the players who are making them this money appropriately.  You would expect nothing less from your employer.  They just happen to be in a very profitable industry.  I lament the fact that we know so much about this process as it can taint people's view of the game, just as it can taint player's passion for genuine competition.  Personally, a couple of years ago, I decided to stop caring what people made and simply sit back and enjoy watching a beautiful game I love.   It makes a world of different in my enjoyment level.

(In response to the second part of the question) Very much so.  Three words.  "Opt out clause". How many times have we heard that built into contracts this off season.  Teams have budgets (save a few) that they must find a way to stay within.  But for most owners of , they are sports fans that want to win.  It MAKES them money AND it's fun.  Taking on contracts when there's a shot a title is now feasible for teams like the Jays and CAN payoff in numbers of different ways for owners with some foresifranchisesght like Uncle Teddy.  Keep buying those bundles and he'll keep it up.

easyrichboy: Stay out of the free agent market. Simple. Build from within. Buy low, sell high.

hugo: Well, I disagree with the sentiment that one must adapt himself to the market realities in the sense that I don't think one should simply accept something along the lines of "well, $55 million seems like a lot, but that is what free agent pitchers cost and we need pitching so that's what we should do."  I think that there will always be market inefficiencies where certain abilities or qualities are undervalued and it is the job of a good GM to exploit that.  The adaptation should be on the part of the GM to figure out which way the wind is blowing and exploiting the inefficiency/undervaluing of certain aspects to gain the biggest advantage.

An example:  I know JP went for Meche, but put that aside.  Would you rather sign Meche to a 5/$55 deal, or would you rather take 3-4 1 year flyers on Okha/Thomson type guys and see what happens?   I know how I answer that question, I think Okha and Thomson were undervalued this season because of injuries, I know they might both stink, but Meche could very well stink too.    

I think a team should sign core-players long term and try to fill the gaps by getting the best value - not just chase the market based on what free-agent pitchers cost.  I think a good GM's job is to be able to beat the market by exploiting areas of undervalued-ness/inefficiency, not going along with the market.  That said, I try not to get too caught up in the economics of the game (I don't want to be one of those fans who criticize every deal in which money is spent).

Allan: To not see 5 million or 6 million as big money anymore or even 10 million soon will probably look like nothing. The NBA has a lot of average players receiving 10 million after their already 4 million dollar rookie contracts. Soon, 10 million may be the standard to what an average player gets and eventually we've got to stop complaining as all it matters is wins and losses when the season starts.

Money buys everything, from the farm team to the salary budget on the major league team. For those teams flush with money, they can take on overpriced contracts and still have money left over to buy guys in South America and Asia. (It's not fair)

Bluebird Banter: Which Blue Jay is due for a breakout season? Which Blue Jay is due for a significant decline?

Alpheus: Last year, I was one of the few that predicted Alex Rios' breakout, so I am going to go a step further and say this year he will outperform Vernon Wells both offensively and defensively. A.J. Burnett will stay healthy and win 17 games. Dustin McGowan will be a mainstay in our rotation by June. On the other hand, I feel like Troy Glaus might be heading towards a sharp decline. Watching him hit in the second half of last season was painful, his production won't completely drop off the table, but he will become even more of a all or nothing type of hitter, I don't think he will top 30 HRs this upcoming year. Also, Reed Johnson is not over the hill, but he was playing over his head last year. He is still a good player, but will not top .300 this year in BA, I predict an OPS just south of .800.

Allan: Which Blue Jay didn't have a nice season last year? I expect Brandon League to put up solid numbers for the entire year (does that count as a break out?). Gregg Zaun or Reed Johnson I expect them to have declined statistics as they are going from platoons to most of the time starter. Zaun I expect to have a poor year becoming our starting catcher again.

hugo: Great question.  I am not sure any Jay is due for a breakout season like Rios' first half last year, but I do think Rios and League are good bets to produce well over the full year.  I also think Lind will validate a lot of people's high expectations of him and produce well in a part-time role. I also think Adams could show himself to be a productive regular this year if given the chance, but that is not really a breakout, and I don't think he will be given the opportunity anyway. The Jays are put together such that they are not really expecting a breakout season, but expecting/hoping for healthy and productive seasons from a wide spectrum of players.  A breakout year by McGowan would be nice, but I don't see much evidence that his control is improving.  Finally, I do think Frasor will be given more of a role this season, and I think he will produce, but not exactly "break out."

In terms of decline, I would target Johnson, I think.  I should qualify that by saying that I think he is a good player and a significant asset, but his numbers against righties in his career were never very good until last season.  He may struggle in an everyday role.  I would like to see him get a new platoon partner, but since no one has jumped on my suggestion of trading McDonald (who Cleveland seems to really covet) and a pitcher for Shin-Soo Choo (who has been basically made expendable by Cleveland and who I think would be a great 4th OF and platoon partner for Reed), I am hoping it will be Lind.  That is perhaps for the best anyway, with Overbay now locked in at 1b and Thomas manning the DH spot.  So long as the Hurt stays healthy...

It is also hard not to be a little wary of Zaun, but hopefully he and Phillips can hold out for the season until Thigpen arrives, hopefully, next year.   I will say I am not as down on Chacin as most, I know his peripherals are not encouraging, but I think he is a type who has deceptive movement on his fastball who can consistently give his team a  chance to win and, for the most part, limit HRs and serious damage.  Not to mention, he is still relatively young and could still improve his control and/or secondary pitches.

easyrichboy: Due? How about A.J.? And now Wells (with all that money). Oh and due for decline? Same guys.

bigearcreations: Breakout: AJ Burnett.  Call me crazy, but those unhittable curves are making me salivate.  I'm going to step out in faith and say that he's not going to be injured this season and he's going to be what everyone always thought he should be.  

Decline: I hate saying this... but Glaus.  Those creaky knees and his total lack of bending ability make me a wee bit nervous.  And don't be shocked when Zaun's numbers plummet after the All Star break again... he's a back up... just so you know.

(Kudos to easyrichboy for the header)

This is part one of a roundtable discussion I moderated between the other five writers: Alpheus, bigearcreations, easyrichboy, hugo, and Allan. Today, I'll post each of their answers to two out of the six questions. Enjoy!

Bluebird Banter: How did you first become a baseball fan, and a fan of the Blue Jays in particular? Also, if you have any favourite all-time players, cherished baseball memories, or interesting stories, please feel free to share them with us.

Alpheus: Living in Vancouver, I never had the chance to go to any live big league games, so I got my baseball fix on TV. With a large percentage of Blue Jays games nationally televised, the Jays became the natural choice for me to follow. As a kid, I remember coming home from school and watch the Dan Schulman, Buck Martinez telecast nearly every day, and slowly developed an obsession with the team.

bigearcreations: : I was born in the fall of 1976 in the middle of the Big Red Machine's run.  My parents tell me that I was mesmerized.  Growing up I lived, ate and drank baseball.  We played in the tennis court behind my house, until it got too hot... when we moved to backyard pool baseball... until we moved into our league games at night!  My summers of Blue Jay's baseball started with the Pennant year of 1985. I still remember my favorite player George Bell falling to his knees at Tony Fernandez ran out and gave what still should be considered the most awkward high-five in Blue Jays History.  The loudest I've ever heard the Dome was at the AL East clinching game in 1991 when we broke the 4 million-fan mark.  But my best memory was being at Game 1 of the 1993 World Series.  I sat in the right field upper-deck seats that jut up above the lights!  I set with a group of Phillies fans who insisted on singing, "Whoop there it is" for the whole game.

easyrichboy: While i can't remember exactly when i became a baseball fan, i believe it was around 1986 or so- which i guess would mean i was about 8 years old. My family is from New Zealand, and because of our lack of familiarity with frozen water, no one knew how to skate. Going to a small school in Canada without being able to skate meant i was the only guy NOT on the hockey team. Maybe that's why i gravitated towards baseball (that or the similarities to cricket).

i think part of it also had to do with my silly need to be different- everyone else was a hockey fan, so i'll be a baseball fan. My father went to McGill and so he was a Habs/ Expos fan. Anyone else was into Toronto .  And where did my loyalties fall? Oakland .

It was of course the bash brothers that drew me in- Jose in '86 and McGwire in '87. Then the Hendersons, Dave Stewart, Lansford, Steinbach, Eck- i could go on and on and i still remember SO many stats from those days it's disgraceful.

hugo: I have been a baseball fan for as long as I can remember, and grew up playing and watching the game.  I grew up in Brooklyn, NY, (like Shawon Dunston, one of my childhood idols, more on that later) and used to ditch class in High School and catch the subway to Shea Stadium.  I am still a big Mets fan, but over the years have taken the Jays as my AL team, at first as a way to root against against the Yankees and Red Sox.  As a dyed-in-the-wool New Yorker, I will probably never be totally even in my fandom between the Mets and the Jays, but I am pretty close at this point and even found myself more interested in the Jays than Mets last year as the Mets were running away with the division.

I played baseball through high school and into college and, although I had always been a fan, it wasn't until I stopped playing that I really became interested in the statistics and nuances of the game.  Although I have been to a few great games (1996 ALCS Game 1 where Jeter's "HR" was deflected by Jeff Maier, David Cone's perfect game at Yankee Stadium, John Maine's fantastic performance in last year's NLCS), my two best memories are as a player: playing in a midnight game in Alaska, and doubling in a game at Doubleday Field at Cooperstown, stealing third and scoring on an error.

As for favorite players, as a SS myself, I always loved Dunston (a Bucktown man) and Kevin Elster for their smoothness in the field, and was in awe of Roberto Alomar's talent (until he signed with the Mets, thanks a lot Robbie!).  But my favorite all-time players are Jimmy Key and Barry Larkin.  Larkin was everything I aspired to be as a SS and a player: a tremendous all-around talent, fantastic in the field, played hard, had fun, was a great teammate, and conducted himself with humility, class, and grace in the face of incredibly difficult circumstances.  I loved Key's determination, his low-key personality, and his ability to succeed despite not having the best stuff.  As you can tell, I have never really gone for the guys with tons of HRs or 100 MPH fastballs (probably because what little I achieved as a player was a product of fundamentals and lots of practice, not given talent).  My favorite current players are John Maine, Jose Reyes, Lyle Overbay, and Ichiro.

Allan: I first became a baseball fan when I was in grade 3 (10 years ago). I always watched anything on CBC or TSN so whenever the Jays were on I would just watch and try to learn the game by myself. I've been born and raised in Toronto so naturally I love all the teams that play here. I actually don't have any favourites nor any real memories, I guess I'm boring? I've made it a goal to catch some more Jays games.. I'm still young...    

Bluebird Banter: While it's technically not over, how would the grade this offseason's transactions? What, in your opinion, was the organization's best move? Worst move?

Allan: The team didn't improve by much (if at all) but I liked the solid moves of signing Thomson and Ohka for very cheap considering what the market offered. A suitable grade would be B/B+. The best move was the Frank Thomas signing as he will probably have the biggest impact and he was the biggest named brought north of the border. The worst move was the Gregg Zaun signing (not that bad a move). I just don't see him putting great enough numbers to warrant 3 million a year.

hugo: I think JP was about right when he characterized the offseason as "good, not great."  I think the Jays did what they had to do, hopefully, to remain competitive - the Thomas signing is a big risk but if it doesn't work out, it's only money, and only two years, while if Thomas stays healthy, there is no doubt he is a difference maker, even in an already excellent lineup.  I think it was a good move.

I do have mixed feelings about the Overbay and Wells deals, but as a big fan of both, I am happy they are both in the team's long-term plans.  Neither is likely to really hurt the Jays in the long run as both will likely be productive throughout most of their respective deals.

I also liked the Thomson and Okha pickups as low-risk signings.  There is no guarantee that either will be helpful to the team, but depth is great to have in pitching and I hope that between the sheer number of potential 3-5 starters this year, three guys will emerge.

I think the best move made by JP was not signing Gil Meche, although he deserves no credit for it.  Although it is possible that Meche will become a frontline starter, there is no real reason to think he will and whatever chance there is of it happening is not the kind of risk you want to put $55 million and 5 years into.  That is the kind of contract that keeps teams sending guys like Meche out there for years of <90 ERA+, just based on money.  I think the worst move was signing Clayton, but it is not really a bad move unless it stops the team from considering other options at SS.  Clayton stinks, but as a last fallback, he is likely to improve on the production from SS last season.  I am probably in the minority, but I would like to see Adams get another shot at SS; (Personal grudge disclosure: I myself was moved from SS to 2B because of my arm at one point, and always felt it was a bit of a snap judgment based on a few bad games.)

easyrichboy: i don't necessarily think much of this offseason's transactions. The Big Hurt signing will (i think), hurt. The V-Dub contract is (frankly), insane. Overbay deal doesn't look too bad (in comparison). Actually, Ohka's contract is looking like my favourite @ this point (cuz it's just one year).

bigearcreations: Best move?  Allan Ashby replacing Warren (Beaver Cleaver " Josh Jerry") Sawkiw.  I'm not even kidding.  I love the sound of baseball.  It's intoxicating!  It's as important to me as the results of the game.  I like the Thomas move... I think Thompson with prove a great investment.  I think Zaun's skills have plateaued but is still a better catcher than Barajas.  The worst move is Clayton.  I know they're not looking for much in the bat department (thankfully since it would be like milking a dry cow... ouch) but looking at his defensive stats and range doesn't exactly warm the cockles of my heart.  My suggestion is during spring training; get the7 poor shortstops in camp to have a "good clubhouse guy" competition.  The funniest guy wins the starters job.  Then no matter how poor they are, you can always say, "well, he's a good clubhouse guy".

Alpheus: I have to say I have not been impressed by the Blue Jay's offseason to date, I feel like the gap has grown between the Jays and the two evil empires. I liked the Frank Thomas signing, despite the obvious injury risks, he is still one of the top hitters in baseball when healthy. The John Thompson, Tomo Ohka signings are also good, low-risk, medium reward deal that add depth to our rotation, something that was sorely missed last year. In my opinion, the worst move this offseason is easily locking up Wells for $126 big ones over 7 years. Wells is a very good player, above-average both offensively and defensively, but overrated on both ends as well. If some of the reported packages offered were true (i.e. the Mets' package or the Dodgers' package), it would've filled holes, trimmed payroll, and infused young talent into the system. I am not convince that a team with Wells will do that much better than a team without the next season given the quality of the return. Overall, I give the offseason a grade of B-/C+.

Earlier today, it was reported that Tomokazu Ohka is now a member of the Blue Jays. He'll have to slug it out with Casey Janssen, John Thomson, Josh Towers, Sean Marcum, and perhaps others for the final two spots in the rotation.

From mybaseballbias.com :

According to Ken Rosenthal at FoxSports.com, the Blue Jays have signed Ohka to a one year deal possibly worth $750-$1M, pending a physical. Also, Rosenthal reports that Ohka turned down a two year deal with the National and the Pirates so he can become a free agent after the 2007 season.

*

The 30 year old Ohka has been around the block so to speak, pitching for five teams since 1999 (Boston, Montreal, Milwaukee twice, Washington and now Toronto). He's compiled a 48-58 record and a 4.04 ERA over that time and should add depth to the Blue Jays rotation.

Most of my friends in Toronto only know about Ohka because his name was mentioned on The Simpsons. Now they'll be able to see him in person. Whether they'll be impressed by what they see, though, remains to be seen.

Update: Apparently Jeff Blair from The Globe and Mail reported different figures than Rosenthal's:

Ohka, who was 4-5 in 18 starts for the Milwaukee Brewers this past season, agreed on a one-year contract worth $1.5 million (all figures U.S.) with incentives that could push its value up to $3 million.

I recently came across an NBA article by Marc Stein on espn.com that discusses MVP candidates now that the season is approaching the halfway mark. Well, in the article, Stein states his MVP-voting philosophy, which I find to be very misguided and all too common among his analytical counterparts on the baseball side.

Regular readers know that team success is always the foundation of our MVP deliberations, with at least 50 W's required to crack the conversation. (Unless you play in the modern-day East, which means you'd probably need at least 55 wins and a few of those unforgettable walk-off triples that Arenas keeps giving us.)

It's apparent that there's a great deal of confusion or disagreement about the definition of Most Valuable Player. Looking at nothing but the term itself, I would presume it's the most valuable player in the game. And value, I guess, is how much of a player's output affects his team's chances at success, because what could be more valuable than impacting your team's chances at success? So, to me, it seems rather fair to suggest that "most valuable" should be synonymous with "best."

It seems that Stein believes that a player is only valuable if his team is among the game's best. But what if one player provides much more value (i.e. production) relative to other individual players? By definition, isn't he still providing the most value, regardless of how productive his teammates are?

One counterargument is that certain players affect team success in more indirect, intangible ways, thus getting the most out of those around them. However, how can this even begin to be quantified? I guess the voters could conduct some interviews of other players to gauge who affects whom and to what extent. But even if that were done, how much could we trust the results? Also, in a game such as baseball (or even basketball, probably), I doubt these intangibles would help produce enough -- be it runs in baseball or points in basketball -- to close the gap between individual production, which is measured in a far more sophisicated, accurate manner. Furthermore, in basketball, the affect one player has on others while on the court can be determined with a reasonable degree of accuracy.

Players should not be disqualified from the MVP-voting process simply because of their team's futility. If a huge outlier such as Barry Bonds circa 2001-2004 were denied MVP consideration simply because of his teammates' poor production, that would be a gross injustice, for he easily provided the most value during each of those seasons.

As I mentioned in my previous post, I was in search of new writers for the website. Well, four (yes, four) have been added to the lineup. That means, of course, that posting will be more collaborative than ever before.

Three of the writers -- "hugo", "easyrichboy", and "achengy" -- have posted in the diaries and comments sections, and are well-suited to post about topics related to the Blue Jays and baseball in general. Allan (achengy) runs his own website dedicated to sports, Allan's World.

The fourth writer, Dave, runs two websites, Big Ear Creations and brantNOW.com.

So I'd like to welcome them all aboard and wish them luck on the website. It could be tough juggling so many different views and opinions at once, but, if anything, that will create more diversity and make the Bluebird Banter a more interesting place to frequent.

Hello, everyone. It's been a while.

A couple of items in the news:

Lyle Overbay signed an extension with the Blue Jays this week. The contract is worth $24 million and spans four years, two of which he would have been eligible for free agency. My views are on this signing are rather mixed. At first glance, it appears to be a thrifty signing, as the Blue Jays lock up a somewhat gifted hitter at a relatively cheap price. On the other hand, however, couldn't the Blue Jays have waited another season, thus hedging their bets? I can't imagine that Overbay's value will skyrocket at this point of his career, especially considering he's a likely candidate to "age quickly" -- at least based on the career trends of statistically similar players from the past. In the end, I don't think this contract will come back to bite them, if only because of its low cost to the organization. And Overbay appears to be a safe bet for at least the next 2-3 years.

Also, much-maligned prospect Elijah Dukes was recently arrested for the possession of marijuana. And as Mike Pindelski of Beyond the Box Score points out, Dukes has been rumoured to be on the move, with Toronto mentioned as a specific destination:

A few days later I encountered something similar over at DRays Bay, SB Nation's Tampa Bay Devil Rays blog.  This time it was speculated that the Rays and Blue Jays were discussing a deal that could send Dukes to Toronto in exchange for pitchers Josh Sowers and Shaun Marcum.

Though these are just rumors and nothing is apparently close, the fact remains that Elijah Dukes might very well be available.

I wouldn't bet the family fortune on this deal taking place, especially with Dukes' stock so low. However, the Devil Rays absolutely have to trade one of their outfielders while they still have any value, be it real or perceived. Otherwise, they'll run the risk of repeating the same mistake the prospect-rich Angels of Anaheim (it still sounds weird, even after all this time) have made with a few of their once-touted prospects like Dallas McPherson  and Casey Kotchman.

As a final note, I'd like to extend an invitation to anyone who's interested in writing about the Blue Jays for Bluebird Banter. As has unfortunately been made obvious by my low post-rate these past few months, I don't have time (or perhaps the time management skills) to update this website as often as I did when I first took up the task many moons ago.

As for me, I'll continue participating in the comments section and will steadily chip away at the top 40 list. I'll be more active once spring comes around, much like I was throughout my brief holiday break in December.

If this interests you, please send me an email.

As of this moment, Alex Rios finds himself on the frontpage of the MLB section on ESPN.com. Now that Vernon Wells signed that Hugh Jazz contract, the attention has shifted towards Rios, who appears to be the most likely Blue Jay to be traded this offseason. Richard Griffin also adds fuel to the fire in today's Toronto Star:

It would require, at minimum, Rios as an enticement to wrest Brad Penny from the Dodgers or to get Jon Lieber from the Phillies as mid-rotation additions, but there are other, cheaper, more reasonable options to fill out the Jays' pitching staff, replacing Ted Lilly, that would allow Ricciardi to keep his already thin outfield together.

The Oakland A's, whose GM Billy Beane is Ricciardi's best friend in baseball and his former boss, loves young, cheap talent from other teams' farm systems. In his rotation, Beane has some interchangeable parts, like Dan Haren and Joe Blanton and, a notch below them, Kirk Saarloos, a teammate of Johnson's at Cal-Star Fullerton.

The Dodgers would seem to have starting excess now that they have signed Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf to join Penny and Derek Lowe. Ricciardi was asked if something might be done to solve the next problem by, say, Christmas.

"No, no, no, no," Ricciardi said. "I think this would be something -- if we can get it, which is going to be hard to do -- that might go right up to spring training."

I'm not opposed to trading anyone, since what ultimately matters is the net value of the trade. With that said, I think it'd be very difficult to trade Rios for a fair amount in return, if only because his stock, from what I gather, isn't as high as it should be. On the other hand, though, last season might have been an aberration and it'd be wise of J.P. to trade him this offseason. While I think his first half was certainly an aberration -- based on his inability to work the count to his liking, his low walk rate, and his abnormally-high BABIP -- it definitely appears that he took a step forward last season. Furthermore, his defensive value is rather high, fueled partly by his strong arm.

Ken Rosenthal reports that Vernon Wells is on the brink of signing a 7-year, $126 million extension with the Blue Jays. One item of note is that the contract, like the one given to A.J. Burnett, includes an opt-out clause.

In one of the bigger upsets of the off-season, the Blue Jays are on the verge of signing center fielder Vernon Wells to a seven-year, $126 million contract extension.

An agreement between the Jays and Wells is close, according to major-league sources. The deal is expected to include full no-trade protection and an opt-out clause.

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The deal also would reflect positively on Wells, who could have commanded a much bigger payout - perhaps as big as 10 years, $200 million - as a free agent next winter.

Wells, 28, will earn $5.6 million in 2007. His new contract would run from `08 to `14, and his ability to void the deal probably would come after year three or year four.

Former Blue Jay Miguel Batista got his piece of the giant free agent pie, reportedly signing a three-year, $24 million contract with the Mariners.

And, as everyone knows, Adam Eaton also signed a three-year $24 million contract, though with the Phillies.

But how do they match up as players?

Batista:

• Signed through his age 36-39 seasons
  
• Posted an ERA+ between 101 and 136 from 2001-2006
  
• His peripherals, namely his his WHIP totals and poor FIP totals, indicate that those ERA+ totals might not reflect his true performance
  
• He's only topped 200 IP once, in 2006 with the Diamondbacks, though he's pitched 184 or more innings in four seasons (2002-2004, 2006)
  
• Despite his relatively low IP totals, he's rarely missed significant time due to injury

Eaton:

• Signed through his age 29-31 seasons
  
• Has only had an ERA+ above 100 once, in 2000 with the Padres
  
• Prior to 2006, his FIP totals suggest he should've posted much better ERAs
  
• He's never topped 200 IP, and has pitched more than 135 innings only twice (2003-2004)
  
• His low IP totals are largely a result of his many injuries

Taking those and perhaps other, hopefully objective factors into account, whom would rather have on your team for the next three years, Miguel Batista or Adam Eaton?

Since I haven't gone over these transactions in depth, I thought I'd gage how everyone feels about them.

To recap, the Blue Jays:

• signed Royce Clayton to a one-year, $1.5 million contract.
• signed Matt Stairs to a one-year contract, though the amount has not yet been disclosed (at least not to my knowledge).
• drafted Jason Smith, a 29-year-old middle infielder, in the Rule V draft.

The Clayton move is the only one that really leaves me befuddled, especially since he's projected to be the team's opening day shortstop. He has no offensive value, as he posted a 66 OPS+ last season, and his defense is widely considered to be very subpar. The Blue Jays' output at the position was so terrible that almost anything would be an upgrade, but Clayton appears to be a useless player at this point in his career.

The Stairs signing seems harmless, especially since I don't think John Gibbons will be foolish enough to grant unwarranted at-bats to him in favour of younger players like Adam Lind. He appears to be decent insurance in the event that Frank Thomas gets hurt.

As for Smith, he could make the team as the 25th man. He hit .291/.354/.511 in 141 ABs for Colorado's AAA affiliate, Colorado Springs. I have a sneaking suspicion that those numbers are environment-inflated, as they don't match up with the rest of his minor league career and, well, he played half his games in Colorado, which is notorious for its thin air. Furthermore, he was quite old for the league, obviously. In the majors, he hit .263/.324/.424 in 99 ABs.

Today's a rather slow news day, but I came across a recent column by Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun. I'd say a few of the items on this list were actually advantageous for the Blue Jays, including this offseason's non-signing of Gil Meche. By the way, whatever happened to Joey Hamilton? It seems like he's been out of the game forever, but he's only 36! Looking back, he was a pioneer of sorts, blazing trails for pitching mediocrities with aspirations of unwarranted fortune.

2. 2006 -- The Jays get beat by two last-place teams, the Royals for free agents RHP Gil Meche and the Cubs for LHP Ted Lilly. Call it oh-for-Orlando.

3. 1998 -- RHP Joey Hamilton is acquired from the Padres as the Jays give up RHP Woody Williams in Nashville. Jays made Hamilton the second highest paid player in terms of service time. He wins 14 games in less than three seasons and is released. Williams wins 96 games.

It's hard to argue against ol' Buddy, whose comments appear in the Toronto Sun:

"(Ricciardi) is an interesting guy for all that he's done in the game," Bell told the Kansas City Star. "He's a little guy with a big mouth and all he does is whine. And you can write that. That's the kind of crap in this game that drives me crazy. He knows nothing about our situation. You've got to be kidding me. Every time I hear this guy talk, all he's doing is whining."

This is hardly an isolated incident, for J.P.'s been embroiled in similarly petty scuffles in the past. Much like another disciple of Billy Beane's, Paul DePodesta, he's had a difficult time interacting with the media, though for somewhat different reasons than DePodesta. He ofen lacks the tact required of a public figure, leading to a rather strained relationship with the media and the public. Although, to be fair, I think a lot of the media's resentment stems from older writers who negatively associate Ricciardi with the Moneyball philosophy.

In today's game, GMs are large public figures within the game, often viewed as the face of an organization's current regime. That's why it's imperative that they possess an ability to deal with the media. While their baseball tasks are often delegated to their subordinates, they are held solely accountable for the organization's administrative moves. As a result, they must resonate legitimacy, professionalism, and organization to the public through the media. And J.P.'s been at the helm for far too long to be involved in such petty altercations.

Further discussion on this topic can be found at Baseball Primer.

As he does every year, John Sickels lists his top 20 prospects from each organization, as well as some honourable mentions. Yesterday, he listed his top 20 Blue Jays, including a grade he assigns to each player.

Here are the top 5:

1. Adam Lind, OF, Grade A- (his bat is not a fluke)
   
2. Travis Snider, OF, Grade A- (outstanding hitter)
   
3. Ricky Romero, LHP, B  (I think he'll rebound)
   
4. Curtis Thigpen, C, B-  (good bat, good glove, lacks home run power)
   
5. Ryan Patterson, OF, C+ (tons of power, but could end up like Ryan Ludwick)

With last season's promotions of Dustin McGowan, Brandon League, Casey Janssen, and others, this list slightly differs from last season's.

Adam Lind was well-regarded prior to last season, but he's propelled himself into a position among the game's best prospects. Of course, his potential isn't quite on par with the likes of Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Alex Gordon, for example, but it appears as though he should fare very well in majors.

Travis Snider, who was drafted out of high school, looks like a great coup for the Ricciardi regime, and hopefully it means the rigid, risk-free strategy of past years won't experience a resurgence in this offseason's draft. That strategy led to the choice of Ricky Romero instead of Mike Pelfrey, who was universally regarded as the best pitcher of the 2005 amateur draft. Of course, I don't mean to imply that Ricciardi should throw caution to the wind and focus solely on toolsy players out of high school. Rather, he shouldn't adopt a strategy that unfavourably limits his focus to a certain style or group of players.

On balance, the farm system appears to be weak in comparison to most other organizations. That should change, however, considering how many relatively high draft picks the Blue Jays have in the upcoming draft. Pistol from Batter's Box listed them late last week:

Here are the 8 picks the Jays have at the moment in the first 3 rounds (again, this can, and likely will, change slightly based on the remaining free agents in above):

    #16 (from the Rangers)
    #21 (own 1st round pick)
    #42 (for Speier)
    #52 (for Cat)
    #55 (for Lilly)
    #71 (own 2nd round pick)
    #74 (from the Angels)
    #101 (own 3rd round pick)

First, these Jays-related tidbits from Aaron Gleeman's winter meetings update:

Apparently the Blue Jays have removed Vernon Wells from all advertising for the 2007 season, although manager John Gibbons said he "hadn't heard that" when informed by a reporter. Gibbons also revealed that it'll be "tough for Russ Adams to make the team" and said Adams' long-term position is second base moments after saying Aaron Hill could become one of the league's top second baseman. In other words, Adams is trade bait.

Additionally, espn.com's rumors section (insider only) is reporting that the Blue Jays are in trade talks with the Dodgers, which are, of course, revolving around the availability of Wells. It must be noted, however, that most of the rumors posted in that section never come to fruition. Moreover, this doesn't make much sense from the Dodgers' perspective. While Wells would significantly improve their outfield corps, they're committed to Juan Pierre in centerfield and, following Ned Colletti's ill-advised signing of Luis Gonzalez, they already have more corner outfielders than necessary.

If he does indeed intend to take the trade route, I recommend that J.P. not limit his focus to players who would fill positions of immediate need, much like Allard Baird notoriously did when he traded Carlos Beltran a few years back. Of course, replacing Russ Adams with a shortstop who's capable of fielding would be opportune, but turning down a potential star simply because he's not a shortstop would be foolish and short-sighted.

Another factor that must be considered is whether the Blue Jays truly believe they're built to win now. It appears that they do -- based mainly on last season's free agent signings and second-place performance -- so they should tailor any trades in that direction. That requires:

a) Someone capable of replacing Wells immediately and

b) Acquiring a few players in return who could help the team next season.

The Mark Mulder trade from a few years back is a great example of something for which J.P. should strive (apologies for inducing painful emotions from Cardinals fans). Of course, that's much, much easier said that done.

Alexis Rios could very well replace Wells in center field, though his strong arm may be best-suited for right field, especially since, based on what I've read, his range has never been deemed to be exceptional.