On the ESPN.com MLB message boards, user bs630 took offense to my grim outlook on Adam Loewen's immediate future:

Loewen

This guy will get absolutely shelled in the near future. Considering his awful peripherals, he's been incredibly fortunate this season.

by mark w

http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/story/2007/4/22/85019/9930

He walked a few guys," Toronto manager John Gibbons said. "But he got a lot of ground ball outs and some key strikeouts. That kid is only going to get better. His ball is so lively."

http://slam.canoe.ca/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2007/04/22/4102855-sun.html

Loewen is walking a lot of batters, but he is giving up less than a hit per IP, has an opposing SLG of .310, and has a 2/1 G/F rate. Gibbons is right and mark w only proves that there are still a lot of Canadians who don't understand baseball.

Being given the opportunity to pitch out of situations like last night and continuing to work with Mazzone, Loewen will only improve. Perlozzo and Mazzone are handling Loewen like they did Bedard. It will work with Loewen too. Good job.

Since I didn't include a qualifier in my comment, I think it's fair to assume that bs360 inferred that I meant Loewen would pitch poorly, regardless of whether his peripherals improve. Of course, if he maintains his current K/BB rate of 19/13, no one could persuasively argue that his ERA wouldn't significantly increase, despite his low HR/9 and his high GB rate.

Well, I wasn't completely going in the direction of the former, since Loewen's track record is far too short to have a good feel for his true value. Nevertheless, he's an interesting case, so let's take a closer look to draw some tentative conclusions.

In 2006, Loewen pitched 112.1 innings, while this season he's already pitched 19.1. From those numbers, it seems that Loewen induces a lot of groundballs, which explains his very low HR/9 totals, though, coupled with his reduced K/9 rate, it means that he's become very reliant on his defense. Last season, the Orioles didn't help him out much, as they ranked 26th out of 30 teams in defense efficiency, which was in line with previous seasons. This season, they currently rank 23rd. Of course, that's a bad sign for Loewen, whose eDER is quite high because of an abnormally low LD%. Moreover, his RA totals show he's prone to allowing unearned runs, which is normal for a groundball pitcher.

In his player profile of Tim Hudson, Marc Normandin voices concern about the strategy employed by groundball pitchers who rely a lot on their defense:

Essentially, even though Hudson was probably not as good a pitcher as he had been just two years before, he was putting up better numbers due to his groundball rates. This is a strategy that works very well if you have a solid or great defense behind you, but once you stop striking batters out, start handing out free passes to first base again, and lose the incredible infield defense that used to back you (read: get traded to Atlanta later on in life), it catches up to you.

What also jumps out at me is Loewen's high LOB%, especially relative to his K/9 rate. Players with high K/9 rates are more likely to leave more men on base, since strikeouts, as we all know, are often vital to keeping men on base. For example, while groundballs and flyballs still induce outs, they often advance runners, too. Anything in the .75% range is a very high LOB% total, and it's a good indicator of a low ERA, which Loewen possesses at the moment. But, due to his low K/9 rate, it appears that it's an aberration rather than a harbinger of what's to come. For instance, Zach Duke, another young lefthander, experienced this regression last season, after his LOB% dropped from 84.2% to 69.9%. His ERA increased dramatically as a result. For a more extensive explanation of this, you should read Anthony A. Perri's article at Insider Baseball.

So what, right? These numbers won't mean anything if Loewen improves his true value as a pitcher under the tutelage of Leo Mazzone. But, even from a scout's perspective, the jury is still out on Loewen's potential. For example, Keith Law said the following in his most recent ESPN.com chat:

Matt (Springfield, MO): Is Loewen going to get his "stuff" together? Is he any good?

SportsNation Keith Law: His stuff is only OK, and his control has never been good. I think that the "real" Adam Loewen was left on the operating table when he tore his labrum in '04.

Loewen has 7.7 BB/9 (85.5%) compared to the league average of about 3.5 BB/9 (38.8%). Through 19.1 IP, the 95% confidence interval for walks in 19.1 IP for a league average player would be between 3 and 12. At his rate, Loewen is well beyond that range, which suggests that he won't suddenly start walking batters at a league average clip, despite the small sample size.

Nevertheless, in fairness to bs630, I might have been somewhat hasty in my assertion. However, a rebound by Loewen is by no means imminent, and, judging by his small sample in the majors, it's safe to say that his ERA will rise, though likely not as much as his peripherals would suggest. Still, barring a complete turnaround, a marked regression should occur as the season progresses. Prior to the season, Marcels, which simply predicts future totals by using weighted averages regressed to the major league mean, forecasted Loewen's ERA at 4.41. I'm slightly more skeptical, based on this season's rates, so I'd add about a quarter of a run (and maybe more) to that total. So, Loewen could very well prove to be valuable, but not at his current rate.

Thomas Anthony Henke | P | 1985-1992 | Career Stats

Tom Henke, at 6'5", 215 lb. and known as "The Terminator," was an intimidating presence on the mound, despite his preference for oversized glasses. He was essentially the Blue Jays' first closer, since, prior to his arrival, the team record for most saves in a season was 11, set by Dale Murray in 1982. Of course, at the time, the game experienced a shift in the way managers utilized relief pitchers. Relief duties had become far more categorized, as pitchers were placed into subgroups, such as closer, setup man, lefty specialist, and mop-up reliever. Henke, with an absolutely nasty combination of a mid-90s fastball and a devastating, strikeout inducing forkball, became one of the game's predominant closers. In his time with the Blue Jays, during which they were perennial contenders as well as World Champions, he was the core of one of the most successful bullpens of that era, and he is the highest-ranked relief pitcher on our list.

After being drafted by the Texas Rangers in the fourth round of the 1980 amateur draft, Henke joined the Blue Jays in 1984 as a compensatory pick for former Blue Jays DH Cliff Johnson, who signed with the Rangers as a free agent. In hindsight, it was absolutely foolish that the Rangers left Henke unprotected, in what sportswriter Moss Klein called "... a transaction that now looks like legalized burglary" in the Oct. 10, 1991 issue of The Sporting News. In fact, to make matter worse for the Rangers, Johnson would return to the Blue Jays less than one year later. At the time, however, Henke was a 26-year-old minor leaguer, whose brief callups to the majors produced cringe-inducing results, as evidenced by his 6.35 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in 28.1 IP with the Rangers in 1984. But, as was the case with Randy Johnson and various others, tall pitchers with great stuff often require more time to develop enough control to successfully compete against major league hitters. Furthermore, Henke's K/9 totals were so high that they somewhat offset his high walk rates, which gave hope to the Blue Jays that he could have been of use to them.

Following his acquisition, Henke spent about half the 1985 regular season with the Syracuse Skychiefs, the Blue Jays' AAA affiliate. Prior to his mid-season callup, Henke posted an 0.88 ERA, a 0.60 WHIP, 60 K, and 18 SV in 51.1 IP. As a result, he was the International League's leading vote-getter for the All-Star game. He then went on to compile a 2.03 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, 42 K, and 13 SV in 40 IP with the Blue Jays in the remainder of that season. In what seems rather ridiculous now, those 13 saves broke the aforementioned record of 11 posted by Dale Murray three years before.

As a Blue Jay, Henke never had to carry the brunt of the relief load on his own, for he normally worked in tandem with another great reliever. At the beginning, he teamed with Mark Eichhorn, who would later be replaced by an up-and-coming Duane Ward. In 1986, Henke's second season with the Blue Jays, he and Eichhorn formed the best relief tandem in the game. Eichhorn's 1986 season was otherworldly, and it certainly deserved far more recognition than it received. Nevertheless, Henke, whose season was impressive in its own right, remained firmly entrenched as the team's primary closer. Henke's 3.35 ERA that season was a notch or two above what it should have been, considering his exceptional peripheral stats. However, he pitched so many fewer innings than Eichhorn, whose 157 IP as a reliever seem outlandish by today's standards, that his true ERA was masked by poor luck. To further expand on this premise, wins, a category that is far more luck-dependent than most others, did not come easily for Henke during this time, for he pitched in 120 consecutive games without recording one, according to the Baseball Library.

In 1987, for the third straight season, Henke set a team record for saves, with 34. He also made the All-Star team for the first time in his career, in which he fittingly pitched during the 9th inning. Surprisingly, at 29 years of age, Henke was the eldest member of the Blue Jays' bullpen, and the bulk of the praise and accolades were pointed in his direction. For instance, after the season, Thomas Boswell of The Washington Post -- one of many others, to be sure -- sang Henke's praises and touted him as a legitimate Cy Young candidate:

Tom Henke and Steve Bedrosian for the Cy Young awards. Yes, even though they're relief pitchers. Please, don't let the awards go to Jimmy Key, Jack Morris, Frank Viola, Roger Clemens, Rick Sutcliffe or Orel Hershiser.

***

For instance, how can Key win the top award when Henke, on his own staff, has 34 saves, a 2.49 earned run average and one of the best ratios of strikeouts-to-innings in history (128 in 94)? Okay, so Henke's record is 0-6. A winless Cy Young winner sure would be memorable. But relievers aren't supposed to get wins; it usually means they blew a save. Zero is good.

If not Henke, then either Dave Righetti or even high-ERA Jeff Reardon (38 wins-plus-saves) have had better years by relief standards than Clemens or Stewart have had for starters. Reardon was the key to Minnesota's division championship.

In the end, Boswell was correct about Bedrosian, who captured the NL Cy Young award in one of the closest votes in history, as he outscored Rick Sutcliffe 57-55. Henke, meanwhile, did not receive one vote; however, nine others did, with Roger Clemens taking home the hardware.

Boswell appeared to misguided, though, despite the fine seasons by Henke and Bedrosian. The starting pitchers named within the excerpt pitched far more innings than either reliever, with a difference of more than 150 IP in most cases. Furthermore, the numbers posted by Henke and Bedrosian were not astoundingly superior to the starters' -- unlike Eric Gagne's 2003 season, for instance -- which meant that the difference in IP simply could not be made up.

At the start of the 1989 season, Henke encountered his first extended bout with adversity. In the first five weeks of the season, Henke compiled a mere 6.1 IP, which included three blown saves in five opportunities. In a home game against Seattle, Henke was booed loudly by a packed SkyDome crowd upon his arrival in the game. According to the May 8, 1989 edition of The Toronto Star, Henke took the harsh reaction well, stating that "It's their privilege." However, the team's pitching coach at the time, Al Widmar, voiced his displeasure when he said, "All those people on him because of the bad time he's going through are forgetting all the good things he's done for the team." As it turns out, Widmar was right, not simply because 6.1 IP is far too small a sample size to incite merited wide-scale booing, but because Henke rebounded to have one of the best seasons of his career. The October 3, 1989 edition of USA Today, includes the following quote by Henke:

I was struggling because I had something like six innings in six weeks. It hurt. I can look back on it now and laugh because it wasn't as bad as it seemed earlier.

By season's end, he posted a 1.92 ERA, a 1.022 WHIP, 116 K, and 20 SV in 89 IP. Unfortunately, the low saves totals led some -- Boswell likely included -- to dismiss his season as a down year.

In 1991, a hard-throwing young pitcher named Duane Ward emerged as one of the game's best relief pitchers. By that point, he had been with the Blue Jays for three full seasons, but he never really took flight until his fourth full campaign. His K/9 and BB/9 totals improved significantly, which led to a sharp decrease in his ERA and WHIP. Conversely, Henke was 33 years old, six years Ward's senior, a time when the injury bug is not only contracted more often, but also lasts a lot longer. In April of that year, Henke went on the disabled list with a pulled groin muscle that was acquired while fielding balls during practice. Ward, who amassed 12 saves in 13 chances during Henke's departure, stepped in admirably. And so it became clear that Henke, who would become a free agent after the 1992 season, had a successor waiting in the wings.

Not one to back down easily, Henke came back firing, as he set a major league record for consecutive saves with 24, from April 9 - August 7, 1991. The associated press published a list of the consecutive saves leaders at the time, which was, not surprisingly, full of Henke's contemporaries:

Leading consecutive save opportunities converted since 1988 when blown saves were recorded on a major league-wide basis:

24 - Tom Henke, Toronto, 1991 (April 9 - August 7).

23 - John Franco, Cincinnati, 1988 (July 1 - September 11).

23 - Rob Dibble, Cincinnati, 1991 (April 8 - July 16).

21 - Doug Jones, Cleveland, 1988 (May 13 - August 11).

20 - Dennis Eckersley, Oakland, 1990 (April 10 - June 12).

19 - Dennis Eckersely, Oakland, 1990 (June 15 - August).

Of course, Eric Gagne now holds the record, with a total that dwarfs the ones listed above, though that should not take anything away from Henke's accomplishment.

In 1992, Henke posted yet another stellar season. He finished with a 2.26 ERA, a 1.114 WHIP, 46 K, and 34 SV in 55.2 IP. Ward was absolutely unbelievable that season, while racking up almost twice as many IP as Henke. The two teamed up to help a stacked Blue Jays roster capture the organization's first World Championship, only 15 years after its inception. It was clear, however, that Ward's presence made Henke expendable. In 1992, despite the fact that Henke voiced a desire to stay in Toronto, he signed with the Rangers, who narrowly beat out the Boston Red Sox for his services. The 2-year-$8 million contract he received no doubt played a role in the Blue Jays' decision to not retain his services.

Shannon Harold Stewart | OF | 1995-2003 | Career Stats

Shannon Stewart, whose name might not immediately conjure up baseball-related thoughts, was the personification of a natural - a player who gave off the impression that he could roll out of bed, shake off any side-effects from the night before, and hit .300. A three-sport athlete -- baseball, football, and track -- in high school, his athleticism led to high early-career batting averages and stolen base totals. Those numbers were somewhat hollow, however, for he did not walk enough to take full advantage of his high batting average nor did he steal successfully enough to overcome his high caught stealing totals. Nevertheless, when healthy, his offense was worthy of an everyday spot in the lineup, as was his above average defense.

Stewart was selected in the first round, 19th overall, of the 1992 amateur entry draft. With history as our guide, that draft, on the whole, was not very memorable, though it did manage to produce Derek Jeter, who is in the midst of a Hall of Fame career. Stewart rose through the minor league ranks quickly, as he never repeated a full season at the same level. He never displayed much power during those years, for the most home runs he ever managed in a season was six, in 1996. However, he displayed the ability to walk more often than he struck out, thus leading to high on-base totals. As a result, he earned his first cup of coffee with the Blue Jays in 1995, as well as another, albeit slightly briefer one, in 1996.

Following the 1997 season, the 1998 Sports Forecaster magazine -- my copy appears disheveled due to the amound I read it as a kid -- labeled Stewart a potential star:

The Jays hope this speedy center fielder will be a part of their outfield for the next decade.... Speed is his meal ticket. The 24-year-old sophomore should be able to steal close to 50 bases per season. Add that to a good eye at the plate and his OBP/SB potential and his OBP/SB potential is solid enough for him to grow into an all-star leadoff man, in time. His arm isn't the strongest, but his range makes up for it.

By 1998, he was in the majors for good, starting in left field for a surgung Blue Jays team whose outfield featured the impressive young trio of Stewart, who manned left field; Jose Cruz, Jr., who was pilfered from Seattle for Paul Spoljaric and Mike Timlin, who patrolled center field; and Shawn Green, who possessed an absolute rocket for an arm, who was in right field. That trio never quite fulfilled its potential, as it turned out, but they were far from flops, especially Green. With a rejuvenated Jose Canseco at DH and the always formidable Carlos Delgado at 1B, the Blue Jays posted 88 wins that season, an impressive total that was unfortunately dwarfed by the two superpowers, New York (A) and Boston, the former of which won an otherworldly 114 games.

Stewart's 51 stolen bases that season ranked third in the American League. However, despite that high total, he was caught stealing 18 times, which led to a SB% of just under 74%. The break even point for stealing second base is about 73%, which means that anything below that mark actually hampers the team's success, high SB totals notwithstanding. In fact, in 1998, his CS total was the second highest in the AL, while his CS total of 14 the following year was the highest. His SB% totals were perennially too low for him to ever have been considered a top base stealer. Unfortunately, despite that harsh fact, the acclaim he received generally revolved around his basestealing abilities, not his other above average attributes. The following excerpt, taken from the Preview Sports' 2000 Fantasy Baseball magazine, is but one example:

Blazing speed and solid contact make Stewart one of the best outfielders in the league, which he should remain for years to come. The stolen base total dropped due to ankle problems late last season, but he should rebound and return to the 50+ level in 2000.

That quote indicates how much reliance analysts had on hollow, uninformative statistics such as AVG and SB. To be fair to these particular authors, however, in standard 5x5 fantasy leagues, which glorify such stats, they are rather important.

Okay, after debunking prevailing perceptions, it is time to focus on Stewart's positives, of which there were quite a few. While his production certainly did not the fit mold of the traditional corner outfielder, he posted above average OPS totals during his final three-plus seasons as a Blue Jay. Despite so-so home run power, he managed to post respectable SLG totals due to his ability to manufacture doubles, as he hit more than 40 in three separate seasons. His ability to reach base was mostly dependent on his batting average, but, since he managed to hit .300 or above virtually every season, his OBP was comfortably in the .360-.375 range every season. Of course, that is rather impressive, though not incredibly high relative to other leadoff hitters. Nevertheless, during his tenure with the Blue Jays, he fit that role better than any of his teammates, many of whom, like Tony Batista and Alex Gonzalez, neither walked nor hit for a high average.

On the defensive side, as mentioned in one of the above excerpts, Stewart's range was quite impressive, though his poor arm detracted from his value to an extent. For the most part, that explains why he primarily manned LF, since leftfielders, due to their advantageous position on the field, need not possess similar arm strength those in CF or RF. His Rate2 totals, as listed on Baseball Prospectus, were above average every season except 1999 and 2002. Once he left the Blue Jays, though, age and injuries sapped his speed, which not only reduced his SB totals, but also his range in LF. As a result, his defense was never quite the same, as it was average to below average from that point onwards.

One of Stewart's highlights as a Blue Jay included a 26-game hitting streak from August 1-29, 1999. Also, despite my obsession with his CS totals, he managed to never get caught more than once in a game, instead doing so exactly once in 67 separate affairs.

Scott from Camden Chat recently posted the Orioles-related portion of the discussion. Check it out if you have time.

2. Is this the year Daniel Cabrera finally breaks out? He was widely believed to be a breakout candidate last year, especially with Leo Mazzone coming aboard, but he struggled right off the bat. He did improve towards the end of the season, though. Is Mazzone finally getting through to him?

Marc Normandin: I've watched Cabrera pitch brilliantly and incredibly poorly, but you can see that he has a lot of talent. He picked up on Mazzone's lessons a bit later in the year, and you could see he was a bit better of a pitcher than he had been earlier in the year, but he's not quite there yet. I still think he can turn into a serious pitcher-and hope he does, with all the ability he has-and along with Bedard, can form one of the best 1-2 combos in the majors. The Orioles are going to need that to happen, and it's certainly a possibility. I think the O's have more positives going for them than we give them credit for, but they're stuck in the AL East, and you can't luck your way into the playoffs there for the most part.

Hey, everyone. Here's a quick roundtable discussion about the 2007 Blue Jays. I hope you enjoy it.

Participants:

Pinstripe Alley (Anaconda)
Over The Monster (Randy Booth)
Bluebird Banter (Mark Willis-O'Connor)
Camden Chat (Scott Christ)
DRays Bay (Patrick Kennedy)
Beyond The Boxscore (Marc Normandin)

1. The Blue Jays finished higher than third place last year for the first time since 1993. Have they overtaken the Red Sox as the Yankees' chief competition in the AL East? Where will they finish this year?

Pinstripe Alley: Jays will finish in 3rd place. The Red Sox seem to have improved enough to jump them in the standings.

Over The Monster: No, they are not the new number two in the American League East. The reason the Blue Jays surpassed the Sox last season is because the Sox beat themselves with injuries. The Blue Jays are a great team - I certainly can admit that - but they still don't have the fire power that the Red Sox have. They've got talented players like Vernon Wells and Troy Glaus, but I don't see some of their players, like Alex Rios, being great players for the rest of their careers. I think the Blue Jays will come in third - just like the good ol' days - right in front of the Orioles and Devil Rays.

Bluebird Banter: Sadly, I'll have to side with the others on this one. Based on the roster in place, as well as the lackluster farm system J.P. Ricciardi has assembled, their window of opportunity appears to be rather narrow. Last season was likely their best shot at the playoffs,
especially now that the Red Sox have restocked and the Yankees have smartened up. The situation isn't hopeless, though, because the Blue Jays do have a strong core in place, led by Roy Halladay, the best pitcher in the entire division. However, they lack the roster depth of the two superpowers, and must win via alternative methods. Unless they replenish their farm system or drastically increase their payroll, they will always be considered third best, for they simply cannot hope to contend long term with the Yankees and Red Sox without using an alternative organizational strategy.

Camden Chat: No, they aren't the chief competition for New York, and they aren't the chief competition for Boston, either, as that title still belongs to the Yankees. They are a good team, but the buck stops there - they finished one game ahead of a battered Red Sox team last year. If Frank Thomas stays in the lineup, I really like the middle of their order, but Wells, Thomas and Glaus are not as good as Ramirez, Ortiz and a healthy J.D. Drew, either. Their rotation is as potentially flaky as Boston's, maybe moreso. They had a good year in 2006, but they have a
couple of starters (Rios and Johnson) that need to prove they can do that again, and I'm not sold, personally. They're going to drop this year, and I think it's possible they could fall to fourth if the Orioles get their pitching straightened out.

DRays Bay: I certainly don't think so. I don't think one year will, in the long run, reverse the precedent. The Red Sox just merely had a worse than normal year, and the margin by which Toronto finished ahead of Boston was slim anyways. With the upgrades Boston made this offseason, I
really don't see them being usurped by the Blue Jays just yet. Toronto is doing their best free spending imitation of Boston and New York, but
ultimately the Red Sox and Yankees are on a different level with regards to spending, and as a result it will be very hard to displace them at
the top for any sustained period of time. I see Toronto finishing third this year in the division, although it is entirely possible that they would reach 90 wins in falling back one spot.

Marc Normandin: I like the Jays more than most, but they have some problems. Their hitters are incredible at the Rogers Centre, but not quite
as good on the road-see Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Troy Glaus for some eye-popping splits on that note-and their rotation is still a serious question mark, although I really like the strategy employed this winter by signing Ohka, Thomson, and everyone else with a pulse who was at one point deemed a useful starter. I don't see them as the chief competition for the Yankees though; the Red Sox were a bit overrated last year, and injuries helped drive them down towards where they belonged, but with the additions they have made to their roster in comparison to what the Jays have done, I don't see 2007 being as close as some may make it out to be. Anything can happen over 162 games though, as we've seen many a time in the past.

2. The Blue Jays spent $126 million to keep Vernon Wells in Toronto for the seven seasons beyond 2007. Good move or bad, and why?

Pinstripe Alley: Good move. Wells is one of the best young players in the game. It's never a bad idea to sign those kind of players to long-term deals.

Over The Monster: Great move. The Blue Jays have the money to spend and they spent it wisely. They didn't spend it on a free agent that had a great season in a contract year. They spent it on a proven player that is only going to get better. They locked up the face of the franchise for seven more years. How many other teams - right now - can say that? They made a smart decision and they'll be rewarded by seven really good years out of their center fielder.

Bluebird Banter: This move must be placed in some sort of context. If it doesn't hamper Ricciardi's ability to acquire talent or displace a superior player from CF, then it should be fine. In regards to the former, Ted Rogers hasn't shied away from raising the team's payroll, nor has there been any indication that he will act differently in the future. But the latter is what may present a problem, since Alex Rios' defence appears to be well-suited for CF. Moreover, if Wells were moved from CF in the future, as his defence is likely to decline with age, his offence wouldn't be that great relative to corner outfielders. I like the move based on what he'll contribute at the moment, but it definitely presents some major long-term concerns.

Camden Chat: Wells' profile isn't terribly dissimilar from Carlos Beltran's, and the Jays made a good move in locking up their center fielder before they had to fight someone else with deep pockets for him in free agency. He'll be a good player for the rest of his contract, probably. If you've got the money to spend, which Toronto obviously does, then you're a fool to not use it for a situation like this.

DRays Bay: How good this move is depends a lot on the financial shape of the Blue Jays. I don't really know where they are. They have been a mid to low payroll ballclub in the past, but with the sudden infusion of cash in the previous few years from Rogers, I'm not really sure where they stand. I very much doubt they are self-sustaining with their current spending spree, so I don't know how long it will be until the flow of money is cut off at the spigot. But if Toronto can afford the salary, and they can eat the contract if things go wrong, it can never really be a horrible move, and the presence of Wells no doubt helps improve the ballclub. From a strictly production for money standpoint though, it is a terrible deal. Wells has had exactly two seasons of great offensive production, the rest have been merely good, and this has evened out to a .303/.336/.492 career batting line. That's a pretty good player, but a $126 million player? I think not. Further, when this contract expires after the 2014 season, Wells will be 35 years old, not exactly on the upswing of his career. And the deal is structured so that the Jays will have to pay Wells $21 million in the final year of the agreement. Again, if they can afford the deal it isn't necessarily bad for them, but I can't imagine the flow of cash running forever, and if the Jays don't have substantial on-field success in the next few years they could be swimming in quite a bit of red ink by the time this contract terminates. Again, without knowing where Toronto really is financially, it is hard to fully evaluate the deal, but I'll tell you one thing: I wouldn't bet on Wells giving you anywhere close to $126 million worth of production over the life of this contract.

Marc Normandin: I like this for the first few years of the deal, although once the price picks up after a few seasons it's an awful contract. Wells is one of the more overrated players in the game, who relies on his home park to boost his stats and isn't quite as incredible defensively as he used to be. I'm going to catch a lot of crap for this, but going forward, I like Alex Rios better than Vernon Wells. His splits are much, much less severe, and he's a great defender in his own right.

Also, if Wells dips back down to his 2004-2005 production at the plate, the Jays will be paying $18 million AAV for an aging centerfielder who
will need to be moved off the position as he continues to put on weight without hitting like a corner guy. I don't really see where the idea of
Wells being a proven player who will only get better comes from.

3. Will the Jays miss Ted Lilly? He wasn't great, but he did start 25 games each of the past three seasons, which is more than you can say
about any other Jays starter. Can the staff just stay healthy?

Pinstripe Alley: For all of his faults, Lilly did eat up some innings for that team last season. That said, he's not exactly irreplaceable.

Over The Monster: They'll miss Ted Lilly, but they're really not going to be thinking about Lilly once Halladay wins the American League Cy
Young. That's if he's healthy, of course, which I think he will be. Lilly was a strong starter for the Jays, but he wasn't going to win the division for them anytime soon. Plus, he was overpaid and they have better things to spend their money on at this point.

Bluebird Banter: Lilly's production will be missed to an extent, of course. Players of his calibre, while not stars, are important pieces to any successful organization. But he's replaceable, and his production won't be missed if any of his potential replacements come through.

Camden Chat: They're going to miss Lilly if Gustavo Chacin or someone can't rebound and do the job that Lilly did, and possibly do it better and much cheaper. Lilly is a solid major league starter, but the Cubs paid a premium for that service, and the Jays probably assume they can replace Lilly pretty easily, either in-house or with one of their cheap free agent pickups. They very well may be right, too.

DRays Bay: The Jays will probably miss Lilly a little, but for the contract he signed with Chicago he wasn't worth the cost to keep around. Then again, looking at Toronto's previous two offseasons, the cost for production factor hasn't stopped them from overspending before, so I'm not really sure why they got stingy here. But as for the Jays, they will miss Lilly a little because now they have to slot someone inferior into the No. 5 hole in the rotation, be in John Thomson or whomever. How inferior that particular pitcher will be depends on which Ted Lilly shows up next year. While he is consistent with respect to eating innings, his numbers have never really been that great, and his walk rates have risen dramatically in the last three years. How that translates to Wrigley Field, I don't know, but the Jays will miss Lilly. How much they'll miss him is dependant on which one shows up this year.

Marc Normandin: The Jays will miss Lilly if neither Ohka or Thomson works out for them. Chacin will also need to stay healthy, and if Josh Towers can shave roughly 37.00 points off of his ERA, he'll be a decent option. Chances are good that either Ohka or Thomson will pitch decently for Toronto, or that both of them will combine for an average-ish year, which will help fill the void left by Lilly's departure. Losing him hurts, but signing him to a comparable deal to the one the Cubs gave him would hurt more.

The final part of the roundtable. Thanks to everyone who participated.

Bluebird Banter: Can the Blue Jays realistically compete in the AL East, both now and long term?

Alpheus: If everything breaks right, I don't see why not. The Jays definitely have enough talent to win this upcoming season. However, we also need some of our prospects to break out and perform at or near their talent level. The biggest problem the Jays had the past couple season was due to hot shot prospects not living up to expectations (Josh Phelps, Guillermo Quiroz, Dustin McGowan, to name a few). Aside from Alex Rios, there hasn't been a top prospect in the Jays organization that actually made significant contribution at the major league level since Vernon Wells. I think we are due for some better luck with prospects. However, even if some of our prospects bust out big time, we also have to best the revamped Red Sox and the rebuilding Yankees (as much as you can rebuild with a $150mil payroll). I think the team to beat in the AL East in 2007 is the Red Sox, although there are uncertainties, their rotation has the potential to be deadly, which will offset any problems they have in their bullpen. In addition, any team with Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz hitting 3-4 will not have problems scoring runs, the rumours of them getting Todd Helton only made me more concern about facing this Red Sox team this upcoming season. On the other hand, I feel like the Yankees are at a transitional stage this moment, they are set to peak a year or two down the road. Despite his struggles, trading away Randy Johnson is going to hurt the Yankees this upcoming year. The back end of the Yankees rotation looks even more suspect than the Jays before the signing of Thomson and Ohka. In addition, losing Gary Sheffield will not help their chances in 2007, his bat will be missed by the Yankees this upcoming season. On the other hand, the moves that Brian Cashman made this offseason set them up for prolonged success in the future. The Yankees have arguably the best group of Right-Handed pitching prospects in baseball. Philip Hughes looks to be the real deal but likely won't be ready to make a huge impact until 2008. For the Yankees, age and injuries is always a concern, I say 2007 will be an off year for them but they will storm back with vengence in 2008. For these reasons, I believe the Jays has a better chance to win it all in the near future than the long term future. Our farm system and economical situation indicates that the Yankees and the Red Sox will once again come out on top going into the next decade. The upcoming draft, with 7 picks in the first 100, will be crucial to our long-term success.

bigearcreations: It has frustrated me these last number of years when people say that the Blue Jays can NEVER compete with the Red Sox and Yankees.  That's extremely shortsighted perspective.  Everything is cyclical.  Dollar values change.  Ownerships change.  Minor League Systems change.  Philosophies change.  It wasn't that long ago that Mike Pagliarulo and (still free wheeling) Yankees where the laughing stock of the East.  Long term is LONG TERM and there are many variables so of course they CAN compete.

This year, I think the Jays are still a couple of starters short of being a genuine contender.  Add a Buehrle or two mid-season if they are able to stay close (and I think they can stay close) and then the situation changes.  But "adding a Buehrle" is not easy.  If was easy, the name Josh Towers would never be heard again.

easyrichboy: Hells yeah the Jays can compete. They're just going about it the wrong way. Save that money that keeps getting thrown your way- stop spending every available penny you have on mediocrity. Fact: free agents demand more $$$ to come to Canada . SO, stop pissing about with free agents- trade expensive talent for cheap talent.

At least we aren't trading much in the way of talent for big names (yet).

Sadly, the Jays are looking a lot more like Baltimore than Oakland right now.

hugo: I think so.  I think the Yankees' spending is coming down to earth now that the full implications of the luxury tax has hit and they realize that not only are they wasting money, but when they do so they are actually kicking money back in for other teams to lock up their Santanae, and Bondermen, and Sheets'.  I also think the Jays have increased payroll to the point that the only thing remaining to do is to continue to improve the farm system, and to make smart moves to keep the team moving in the right direction.  While I agree it is tough to compete in the AL East, its rigor means that once the Jays make it through, they will be that much more prepared for the playoffs.  Who wants to see a team squeak through a weak division year after year only to get knocked out of the playoffs in the first round because they have not addressed a significant element of the game?  The rigor of the East has forced the Jays to acquire top players and to attempt to improve all areas of the team while also preparing for the long haul.  That's not a bad thing.  I also think this draft (and all the picks) represent a great chance for the Jays to restock the farm system and get some real high-ceiling guys, some difference makers, into the system.

Allan: They better.

Bluebird Banter: Do you think J.P. Ricciardi is the right man for the job? What are his strengths? Weaknesses?

Allan: No idea. When he is fired/resigns I will evaluate his success entirely. Who knows, he may win us a championship or make the worst trade in history. Time will tell.

hugo: It is difficult to evaluate J.P. because he has not been, in my opinion, particularly creative in his tenure as GM.  I think this is a significant weakness, and probably his biggest.  His drafting has not been horrible but has certainly not been shown to have been great, his free agent acquisitions have mixed records but have certainly helped the team more often than not, and his trades have generally been fine.  But he hasn't shown a true long-term vision or skill for outmaneuvering other GMs when it comes to identifying overlooked areas and exploiting market inefficiencies/bargains.  I think a GM needs time (so long as they show something), but I sense that JP's time will run out quickly if the Jays have a disappointing season this year.  I don't think that will happen, but I do think JP could benefit from a little more strategic thinking.

easyrichboy: Yeah he's the right man for the job! He just seems to be caving in to pressure. Admit that we're gonna suck for a couple years and build a decent team. Stop spending money just cuz it's there.  J.P. needs to remember his roots and read Moneyball one more time. Yeah I know the A's haven't won since 1989- but they've contended almost every year. There's a good reason for this.

      ***As an aside, if any of you haven't read Moneyball, you really need to. It is a fantastic baseball book with TONS of brilliant insights and frankly just a damn good story. i read it to my son Hudson while he was still in the womb. So far he's looking like a totally awesome (under-rated) left-handed pitcher. Sweeee-eeet.

bigearcreations: Honestly, it's been a rare occasion that I haven't agreed with his moves at the time they were made.  But I've always been a believer that he came into Toronto with a long-term plan, and many of his decisions have been made within the framework of that plan.  Therefore, I believe that he's been justified in choices like dumping Carpenter (which hurts now, but remember how you felt at the time?)  

That said, its fish or cut bait time.  Either it comes together or it's time to evaluate again.  One area that he's been shockingly poor at is building the farm system.  Evaluating talent doesn't solely fall under a General Manager's job description... but as the visionary... he sets the course.  And JP's course has been white American college kids.  It's been too narrow a focus (duh), and it's coming back to bite him pretty good and hard.  Oh for the days of Eppy Guerrero and the San Pedro de Macoris baseball factory!  

Alpheus: Like every GM, J.P. Ricciardi has his strength and weaknesses. I think he has done a good job identifying and acquiring established talents that has continued their production in a Blue Jays uniform (e.g. B.J. Ryan, A.J. Burnett, Lyle Overbay), and finding washed up ballplayers that rejuvenates their career as a Blue Jay(Greg Zaun, Greg Myers, etc.). However, I feel like Ricciardi lacks a long term vision that is an essential quality of a good GM. Unlike Billy Beane, who is very good at selling high and buying low, Ricciardi has an opposite tendency of buying high and selling low. In many instances over the past couple seasons, Ricciardi refuses to trade his impending free-agents for one reason or another to improve the future prospects of the team. For example, Ricciardi should've pulled the plug on Hillenbrand before it boiled over into the Hillengate scandal; Hillenbrand should've been traded in April when his value peaked. I also thought Ricciardi should've pursued trading Ted Lilly and Justin Speier actively at the deadline, where there was high demand for pitchers. I am afraid that the Vernon Wells signing is another case where Ricciardi is buying high at a time where he should be selling. If the Jays don't get to the playoffs by in the next two seasons, I predict the Jays will fire Ricciardi.

(Big ups to easyrichboy for the header)

Part deux...

Bluebird Banter: The game appears to be flush with money, thus inflating the free agent market and organizational budgets. To what extent should our perceptions of free agent contracts adapt to this?

Furthermore, now that budgets are on the rise and plenty of teams are willing to take on large contracts in lopsided trades (i.e. last season's Bobby Abreu deal), is it now much more difficult for GMs to handcuff their team's long-term potential with overpriced contracts?

bigearcreations: Greatly.  There is no reason why owners who are making money should not be paying the players who are making them this money appropriately.  You would expect nothing less from your employer.  They just happen to be in a very profitable industry.  I lament the fact that we know so much about this process as it can taint people's view of the game, just as it can taint player's passion for genuine competition.  Personally, a couple of years ago, I decided to stop caring what people made and simply sit back and enjoy watching a beautiful game I love.   It makes a world of different in my enjoyment level.

(In response to the second part of the question) Very much so.  Three words.  "Opt out clause". How many times have we heard that built into contracts this off season.  Teams have budgets (save a few) that they must find a way to stay within.  But for most owners of , they are sports fans that want to win.  It MAKES them money AND it's fun.  Taking on contracts when there's a shot a title is now feasible for teams like the Jays and CAN payoff in numbers of different ways for owners with some foresifranchisesght like Uncle Teddy.  Keep buying those bundles and he'll keep it up.

easyrichboy: Stay out of the free agent market. Simple. Build from within. Buy low, sell high.

hugo: Well, I disagree with the sentiment that one must adapt himself to the market realities in the sense that I don't think one should simply accept something along the lines of "well, $55 million seems like a lot, but that is what free agent pitchers cost and we need pitching so that's what we should do."  I think that there will always be market inefficiencies where certain abilities or qualities are undervalued and it is the job of a good GM to exploit that.  The adaptation should be on the part of the GM to figure out which way the wind is blowing and exploiting the inefficiency/undervaluing of certain aspects to gain the biggest advantage.

An example:  I know JP went for Meche, but put that aside.  Would you rather sign Meche to a 5/$55 deal, or would you rather take 3-4 1 year flyers on Okha/Thomson type guys and see what happens?   I know how I answer that question, I think Okha and Thomson were undervalued this season because of injuries, I know they might both stink, but Meche could very well stink too.    

I think a team should sign core-players long term and try to fill the gaps by getting the best value - not just chase the market based on what free-agent pitchers cost.  I think a good GM's job is to be able to beat the market by exploiting areas of undervalued-ness/inefficiency, not going along with the market.  That said, I try not to get too caught up in the economics of the game (I don't want to be one of those fans who criticize every deal in which money is spent).

Allan: To not see 5 million or 6 million as big money anymore or even 10 million soon will probably look like nothing. The NBA has a lot of average players receiving 10 million after their already 4 million dollar rookie contracts. Soon, 10 million may be the standard to what an average player gets and eventually we've got to stop complaining as all it matters is wins and losses when the season starts.

Money buys everything, from the farm team to the salary budget on the major league team. For those teams flush with money, they can take on overpriced contracts and still have money left over to buy guys in South America and Asia. (It's not fair)

Bluebird Banter: Which Blue Jay is due for a breakout season? Which Blue Jay is due for a significant decline?

Alpheus: Last year, I was one of the few that predicted Alex Rios' breakout, so I am going to go a step further and say this year he will outperform Vernon Wells both offensively and defensively. A.J. Burnett will stay healthy and win 17 games. Dustin McGowan will be a mainstay in our rotation by June. On the other hand, I feel like Troy Glaus might be heading towards a sharp decline. Watching him hit in the second half of last season was painful, his production won't completely drop off the table, but he will become even more of a all or nothing type of hitter, I don't think he will top 30 HRs this upcoming year. Also, Reed Johnson is not over the hill, but he was playing over his head last year. He is still a good player, but will not top .300 this year in BA, I predict an OPS just south of .800.

Allan: Which Blue Jay didn't have a nice season last year? I expect Brandon League to put up solid numbers for the entire year (does that count as a break out?). Gregg Zaun or Reed Johnson I expect them to have declined statistics as they are going from platoons to most of the time starter. Zaun I expect to have a poor year becoming our starting catcher again.

hugo: Great question.  I am not sure any Jay is due for a breakout season like Rios' first half last year, but I do think Rios and League are good bets to produce well over the full year.  I also think Lind will validate a lot of people's high expectations of him and produce well in a part-time role. I also think Adams could show himself to be a productive regular this year if given the chance, but that is not really a breakout, and I don't think he will be given the opportunity anyway. The Jays are put together such that they are not really expecting a breakout season, but expecting/hoping for healthy and productive seasons from a wide spectrum of players.  A breakout year by McGowan would be nice, but I don't see much evidence that his control is improving.  Finally, I do think Frasor will be given more of a role this season, and I think he will produce, but not exactly "break out."

In terms of decline, I would target Johnson, I think.  I should qualify that by saying that I think he is a good player and a significant asset, but his numbers against righties in his career were never very good until last season.  He may struggle in an everyday role.  I would like to see him get a new platoon partner, but since no one has jumped on my suggestion of trading McDonald (who Cleveland seems to really covet) and a pitcher for Shin-Soo Choo (who has been basically made expendable by Cleveland and who I think would be a great 4th OF and platoon partner for Reed), I am hoping it will be Lind.  That is perhaps for the best anyway, with Overbay now locked in at 1b and Thomas manning the DH spot.  So long as the Hurt stays healthy...

It is also hard not to be a little wary of Zaun, but hopefully he and Phillips can hold out for the season until Thigpen arrives, hopefully, next year.   I will say I am not as down on Chacin as most, I know his peripherals are not encouraging, but I think he is a type who has deceptive movement on his fastball who can consistently give his team a  chance to win and, for the most part, limit HRs and serious damage.  Not to mention, he is still relatively young and could still improve his control and/or secondary pitches.

easyrichboy: Due? How about A.J.? And now Wells (with all that money). Oh and due for decline? Same guys.

bigearcreations: Breakout: AJ Burnett.  Call me crazy, but those unhittable curves are making me salivate.  I'm going to step out in faith and say that he's not going to be injured this season and he's going to be what everyone always thought he should be.  

Decline: I hate saying this... but Glaus.  Those creaky knees and his total lack of bending ability make me a wee bit nervous.  And don't be shocked when Zaun's numbers plummet after the All Star break again... he's a back up... just so you know.

(Kudos to easyrichboy for the header)

This is part one of a roundtable discussion I moderated between the other five writers: Alpheus, bigearcreations, easyrichboy, hugo, and Allan. Today, I'll post each of their answers to two out of the six questions. Enjoy!

Bluebird Banter: How did you first become a baseball fan, and a fan of the Blue Jays in particular? Also, if you have any favourite all-time players, cherished baseball memories, or interesting stories, please feel free to share them with us.

Alpheus: Living in Vancouver, I never had the chance to go to any live big league games, so I got my baseball fix on TV. With a large percentage of Blue Jays games nationally televised, the Jays became the natural choice for me to follow. As a kid, I remember coming home from school and watch the Dan Schulman, Buck Martinez telecast nearly every day, and slowly developed an obsession with the team.

bigearcreations: : I was born in the fall of 1976 in the middle of the Big Red Machine's run.  My parents tell me that I was mesmerized.  Growing up I lived, ate and drank baseball.  We played in the tennis court behind my house, until it got too hot... when we moved to backyard pool baseball... until we moved into our league games at night!  My summers of Blue Jay's baseball started with the Pennant year of 1985. I still remember my favorite player George Bell falling to his knees at Tony Fernandez ran out and gave what still should be considered the most awkward high-five in Blue Jays History.  The loudest I've ever heard the Dome was at the AL East clinching game in 1991 when we broke the 4 million-fan mark.  But my best memory was being at Game 1 of the 1993 World Series.  I sat in the right field upper-deck seats that jut up above the lights!  I set with a group of Phillies fans who insisted on singing, "Whoop there it is" for the whole game.

easyrichboy: While i can't remember exactly when i became a baseball fan, i believe it was around 1986 or so- which i guess would mean i was about 8 years old. My family is from New Zealand, and because of our lack of familiarity with frozen water, no one knew how to skate. Going to a small school in Canada without being able to skate meant i was the only guy NOT on the hockey team. Maybe that's why i gravitated towards baseball (that or the similarities to cricket).

i think part of it also had to do with my silly need to be different- everyone else was a hockey fan, so i'll be a baseball fan. My father went to McGill and so he was a Habs/ Expos fan. Anyone else was into Toronto .  And where did my loyalties fall? Oakland .

It was of course the bash brothers that drew me in- Jose in '86 and McGwire in '87. Then the Hendersons, Dave Stewart, Lansford, Steinbach, Eck- i could go on and on and i still remember SO many stats from those days it's disgraceful.

hugo: I have been a baseball fan for as long as I can remember, and grew up playing and watching the game.  I grew up in Brooklyn, NY, (like Shawon Dunston, one of my childhood idols, more on that later) and used to ditch class in High School and catch the subway to Shea Stadium.  I am still a big Mets fan, but over the years have taken the Jays as my AL team, at first as a way to root against against the Yankees and Red Sox.  As a dyed-in-the-wool New Yorker, I will probably never be totally even in my fandom between the Mets and the Jays, but I am pretty close at this point and even found myself more interested in the Jays than Mets last year as the Mets were running away with the division.

I played baseball through high school and into college and, although I had always been a fan, it wasn't until I stopped playing that I really became interested in the statistics and nuances of the game.  Although I have been to a few great games (1996 ALCS Game 1 where Jeter's "HR" was deflected by Jeff Maier, David Cone's perfect game at Yankee Stadium, John Maine's fantastic performance in last year's NLCS), my two best memories are as a player: playing in a midnight game in Alaska, and doubling in a game at Doubleday Field at Cooperstown, stealing third and scoring on an error.

As for favorite players, as a SS myself, I always loved Dunston (a Bucktown man) and Kevin Elster for their smoothness in the field, and was in awe of Roberto Alomar's talent (until he signed with the Mets, thanks a lot Robbie!).  But my favorite all-time players are Jimmy Key and Barry Larkin.  Larkin was everything I aspired to be as a SS and a player: a tremendous all-around talent, fantastic in the field, played hard, had fun, was a great teammate, and conducted himself with humility, class, and grace in the face of incredibly difficult circumstances.  I loved Key's determination, his low-key personality, and his ability to succeed despite not having the best stuff.  As you can tell, I have never really gone for the guys with tons of HRs or 100 MPH fastballs (probably because what little I achieved as a player was a product of fundamentals and lots of practice, not given talent).  My favorite current players are John Maine, Jose Reyes, Lyle Overbay, and Ichiro.

Allan: I first became a baseball fan when I was in grade 3 (10 years ago). I always watched anything on CBC or TSN so whenever the Jays were on I would just watch and try to learn the game by myself. I've been born and raised in Toronto so naturally I love all the teams that play here. I actually don't have any favourites nor any real memories, I guess I'm boring? I've made it a goal to catch some more Jays games.. I'm still young...    

Bluebird Banter: While it's technically not over, how would the grade this offseason's transactions? What, in your opinion, was the organization's best move? Worst move?

Allan: The team didn't improve by much (if at all) but I liked the solid moves of signing Thomson and Ohka for very cheap considering what the market offered. A suitable grade would be B/B+. The best move was the Frank Thomas signing as he will probably have the biggest impact and he was the biggest named brought north of the border. The worst move was the Gregg Zaun signing (not that bad a move). I just don't see him putting great enough numbers to warrant 3 million a year.

hugo: I think JP was about right when he characterized the offseason as "good, not great."  I think the Jays did what they had to do, hopefully, to remain competitive - the Thomas signing is a big risk but if it doesn't work out, it's only money, and only two years, while if Thomas stays healthy, there is no doubt he is a difference maker, even in an already excellent lineup.  I think it was a good move.

I do have mixed feelings about the Overbay and Wells deals, but as a big fan of both, I am happy they are both in the team's long-term plans.  Neither is likely to really hurt the Jays in the long run as both will likely be productive throughout most of their respective deals.

I also liked the Thomson and Okha pickups as low-risk signings.  There is no guarantee that either will be helpful to the team, but depth is great to have in pitching and I hope that between the sheer number of potential 3-5 starters this year, three guys will emerge.

I think the best move made by JP was not signing Gil Meche, although he deserves no credit for it.  Although it is possible that Meche will become a frontline starter, there is no real reason to think he will and whatever chance there is of it happening is not the kind of risk you want to put $55 million and 5 years into.  That is the kind of contract that keeps teams sending guys like Meche out there for years of <90 ERA+, just based on money.  I think the worst move was signing Clayton, but it is not really a bad move unless it stops the team from considering other options at SS.  Clayton stinks, but as a last fallback, he is likely to improve on the production from SS last season.  I am probably in the minority, but I would like to see Adams get another shot at SS; (Personal grudge disclosure: I myself was moved from SS to 2B because of my arm at one point, and always felt it was a bit of a snap judgment based on a few bad games.)

easyrichboy: i don't necessarily think much of this offseason's transactions. The Big Hurt signing will (i think), hurt. The V-Dub contract is (frankly), insane. Overbay deal doesn't look too bad (in comparison). Actually, Ohka's contract is looking like my favourite @ this point (cuz it's just one year).

bigearcreations: Best move?  Allan Ashby replacing Warren (Beaver Cleaver " Josh Jerry") Sawkiw.  I'm not even kidding.  I love the sound of baseball.  It's intoxicating!  It's as important to me as the results of the game.  I like the Thomas move... I think Thompson with prove a great investment.  I think Zaun's skills have plateaued but is still a better catcher than Barajas.  The worst move is Clayton.  I know they're not looking for much in the bat department (thankfully since it would be like milking a dry cow... ouch) but looking at his defensive stats and range doesn't exactly warm the cockles of my heart.  My suggestion is during spring training; get the7 poor shortstops in camp to have a "good clubhouse guy" competition.  The funniest guy wins the starters job.  Then no matter how poor they are, you can always say, "well, he's a good clubhouse guy".

Alpheus: I have to say I have not been impressed by the Blue Jay's offseason to date, I feel like the gap has grown between the Jays and the two evil empires. I liked the Frank Thomas signing, despite the obvious injury risks, he is still one of the top hitters in baseball when healthy. The John Thompson, Tomo Ohka signings are also good, low-risk, medium reward deal that add depth to our rotation, something that was sorely missed last year. In my opinion, the worst move this offseason is easily locking up Wells for $126 big ones over 7 years. Wells is a very good player, above-average both offensively and defensively, but overrated on both ends as well. If some of the reported packages offered were true (i.e. the Mets' package or the Dodgers' package), it would've filled holes, trimmed payroll, and infused young talent into the system. I am not convince that a team with Wells will do that much better than a team without the next season given the quality of the return. Overall, I give the offseason a grade of B-/C+.

Earlier today, it was reported that Tomokazu Ohka is now a member of the Blue Jays. He'll have to slug it out with Casey Janssen, John Thomson, Josh Towers, Sean Marcum, and perhaps others for the final two spots in the rotation.

From mybaseballbias.com :

According to Ken Rosenthal at FoxSports.com, the Blue Jays have signed Ohka to a one year deal possibly worth $750-$1M, pending a physical. Also, Rosenthal reports that Ohka turned down a two year deal with the National and the Pirates so he can become a free agent after the 2007 season.

*

The 30 year old Ohka has been around the block so to speak, pitching for five teams since 1999 (Boston, Montreal, Milwaukee twice, Washington and now Toronto). He's compiled a 48-58 record and a 4.04 ERA over that time and should add depth to the Blue Jays rotation.

Most of my friends in Toronto only know about Ohka because his name was mentioned on The Simpsons. Now they'll be able to see him in person. Whether they'll be impressed by what they see, though, remains to be seen.

Update: Apparently Jeff Blair from The Globe and Mail reported different figures than Rosenthal's:

Ohka, who was 4-5 in 18 starts for the Milwaukee Brewers this past season, agreed on a one-year contract worth $1.5 million (all figures U.S.) with incentives that could push its value up to $3 million.

I recently came across an NBA article by Marc Stein on espn.com that discusses MVP candidates now that the season is approaching the halfway mark. Well, in the article, Stein states his MVP-voting philosophy, which I find to be very misguided and all too common among his analytical counterparts on the baseball side.

Regular readers know that team success is always the foundation of our MVP deliberations, with at least 50 W's required to crack the conversation. (Unless you play in the modern-day East, which means you'd probably need at least 55 wins and a few of those unforgettable walk-off triples that Arenas keeps giving us.)

It's apparent that there's a great deal of confusion or disagreement about the definition of Most Valuable Player. Looking at nothing but the term itself, I would presume it's the most valuable player in the game. And value, I guess, is how much of a player's output affects his team's chances at success, because what could be more valuable than impacting your team's chances at success? So, to me, it seems rather fair to suggest that "most valuable" should be synonymous with "best."

It seems that Stein believes that a player is only valuable if his team is among the game's best. But what if one player provides much more value (i.e. production) relative to other individual players? By definition, isn't he still providing the most value, regardless of how productive his teammates are?

One counterargument is that certain players affect team success in more indirect, intangible ways, thus getting the most out of those around them. However, how can this even begin to be quantified? I guess the voters could conduct some interviews of other players to gauge who affects whom and to what extent. But even if that were done, how much could we trust the results? Also, in a game such as baseball (or even basketball, probably), I doubt these intangibles would help produce enough -- be it runs in baseball or points in basketball -- to close the gap between individual production, which is measured in a far more sophisicated, accurate manner. Furthermore, in basketball, the affect one player has on others while on the court can be determined with a reasonable degree of accuracy.

Players should not be disqualified from the MVP-voting process simply because of their team's futility. If a huge outlier such as Barry Bonds circa 2001-2004 were denied MVP consideration simply because of his teammates' poor production, that would be a gross injustice, for he easily provided the most value during each of those seasons.