Sixteen is an important number in the NFL. There are (still) sixteen games in a regular season and sixteen teams in each conference. Yesterday, the Ravens sadly finished their sixteenth season in the NFL, and this provides an excellent opportunity to review the Ravens over the course of their lifetime.

While there were only 30 teams in the NFL when the Ravens came to Baltimore, This was quickly changed as the Browns returned to the NFL in 1999 and the Texans in 2002. To look at how the Ravens have performed over that time, compare them to how the 16 AFC teams are guaranteed to perform in any one season.

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And compares it to QB knockdowns.  They note that Joe Flacco has been knocked down 180 times since the beginning of 2009 and received 1 Roughing the Passer penalty, the lowest ratio of any QB not named David Garrard.  I've long suspected Joe Flacco has rarely received these types of calls, and I can certainly recall hits where it seems he should have received them.  I've suspected that if Joe Flacco could improve his status, he would get more protection from refs, but at this point he has a significant (and good) body of work to his name, but not the ref support to show for it.

Congratulations to Coach Harbaugh, Ozzie and the Ravens for their Historic Win!

Historic?  Absolutely.  Monday's victory over the Houston Texans marks the first time in franchise history that the Ravens will have three consecutive winning seasons.  Our playoff percentage is currently through the roof with the "7th, 8th, and 9th" seeds two games behind us.  97.6%.  It's been an agonizing season, but we should at least recognize that we are lucky to be fans of a team that has delivered consistent success under Coach Harbaugh's watch (and that includes Cam Cameron and Gregg Mattison, who he brought here).

The past three weeks have been dissappointing to say the least.  3 consecutive close losses and our once thrilling prospects seem much more mediocre.  Missing the playoffs feels like a real possibility.  Pro Football Focus has numerical assessments of every Ravens player to point, and I thought it would be cool to identify who has been struggling for the Ravens and what the solutions might be.

Offense

Marshall Yanda - Yanda is a very solid guard, but not really a fit for tackle.  He's been repeatedly dominated over the past two games in both the run game and the passing game.  He's playing out of position and we've got to get better production at RT.  The solution here is easy.  Jared Gaither gets healthy, Oher moves to RT, and we have an elite offensive line again.  This is not a serious concern.

Mark Clayton - Mark's a hardworking player who does the little things but has trouble getting separation and can drop some serious passes.  He had a great catch last week and will occasionally have those, but he's far from a consistent second WR.  The solution to this problem is not easy at all.  Washington and Williams have played well in limited opportunities, but no-one really believes they are ready to be the #2 WR.  Clayton is going to need to improve and consistently get open.  Signing Joey Galloway might be a solution but he struggled in New England.

Defense/Special Teams

Dwan Landry - He's been really bad.  Probably the worst player on the Ravens team according to 2009 performance.  I think it's bad enough that he needs to be benched.  Our corners are not strong enough to survive without help and Landry has just been a huge liability on the field.  It's time to bring in Haruki Nakamura or Tom Zbikowski.  Hopefully Landry can recover some of his skills in practice and make a comeback, but we simply can't afford for him to play at the level he's been playing at.

Chris Carr - Chris Carr is the other major competitor for the worst performing Raven.  He's already been benched on kickoffs for Lardarius Webb and Webb has clearly and overwhelmingly been an improvement.  Carr also has stunk in coverage, and has been an overall liability.  Frankly, I'd like to see him cut from the team and replaced with just about anybody.

Frank Walker - Frank's not as bad as he often seems, but the penalties are just too much.  I'm fine with him down the depth chart, but his tendency to draw far too many penalties make him a liability.  Again, with the major issues with the secondary!  This is a position that needs some serious work. 

Trevor Pryce - I think the Ravens are already on this with subbing in Dwan Edwards more.  Pryce gets held a lot and that hurts his performance and wears him out.  We need him to be fresh to get anything out of him, and even though Edwards is not great, he's an adequate substitute for an aging player.

Pass Rush - we don't have an elite pass rusher.  If you look at the defensive numbers, we've got tons of guys who are excellent against the run but very few guys who are solid against the pass.  It's a big issue.  This is probably on Coach Mattison at this point.  We don't have a superb pass rusher, and we need to adjust our scheme to get to the QB more consistently.

I think articles like this would be a fun addition to the Beatdown.  Mike Preston usually does something like this for the Baltimore Sun, but, inspired by Mike Tanier's excellent weekly article, I've decided to try my luck with it.  The idea is simple, I'm going to analyze several key matchups in the upcoming game.

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The most stunning result from this particular weekend is the results of the Ravens three draft day trades.  They traded twice with the New England Patriots and once with the Denver Broncos, and it was pretty much a cup game.  They literally walked out with more value than they walked in by almost any metric.  They walked in with 6 picks (#26, #57, #88, #123, #162, #198) and walked out with 6 picks (#23, #57, #88, #137, #149, #185).  Here's how it went down...

The Ravens decided that they had to have OT Michael Oher, and Bill Bellichek seemed to want no part of the first round.  So we traded a fifth round pick (#162) to move up three spots in the first round while the Patriots flew out of it.  I love this trade and pick, because Michael Oher was a player I had written off any chance of the Ravens getting.  I think he was one of the top 10 players in the draft and a huge steal for the Ravens at #23... but that's still my opinion, and only the beginning of the story.

Then the Ravens, when they were going to make their fourth round pick, chose to trade it and their sixth round picks to the Patriots for two fifth round picks.  This was picks (#123 and #198) for (#137 and #141).  A late fourth and sixth rounder for two fifth round picks, not bad.  Finally, when it came to #141, they traded it for a later fifth round pick plus a sixth round pick (#149, #185).  Finally, the Ravens had six picks, exactly where they started with.  But that's not all.  What this essentially means is that in order to move up and take Oher, the Ravens had to give the Patriots... 9 spots in the late 4th round of the draft.  That's it.  Move up 3 spots in the first round, move down 9 spots in the 4th round.  Wait, no, the Ravens weren't satisfied with that deal, they held out for getting to move up 13 spots in the fifth round and 13 spots in the sixth round.  There is literally no metric that makes any sense that could possibly argue against the fact that the Ravens walked out of the draft with literally better draft picks than they walked in with.

Now, if the Ravens scouting was as good as the Ravens draft day dealing, this will be one hell of a draft to remember.

A lot of people don't really understand what a team's Big Board might look like, and I've decided that I can start an exciting conversation about the draft and explain what a Team's Big Board might look like.  First a couple facts.

A Big Board consists of a list of players.  Each player is listed with a position (or positions) that he would likely play on the team and a grade.  This grade will at least include what round value the team thinks the player has, but many teams increase that to "early 1st round" or "late 2nd round" separation for the early rounds.

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From Peter Schmuck, Brian Bass, David Pauley, Hayden Penn, Dennis Sarfate, Scott Moore, Felix Pie and Jeremy Guthrie are out of minor league options, along with Rich Hill if we trade for him.  Guthrie is obviously a non-issue, as are Pie and Sarfate, but this probably spells doom for Scott Moore.  If Trembley goes with the 3 man bench (probable), those three would almost certainly be a catcher, Freel, and a guy who can play shortstop, which leaves Moore plum out of it.

Brian Bass, Hayden Penn, David Pauley are all of course going to be competing for spots in the starting rotation.

Chris Ray, Jimmy Johnson, George Sherrill, Dennis Sarfate have a stranglehold on four rotation spots, leaving four left for the taking.

With a big win over the Redskins, the Ravens are still plugging along successfully on their way to a playoff berth.  That three game losing streak really feels distant right now doesn't it?  Unfortunately, once again, the only team that decided to help our Ravens out this week were the San Francisco 49ers, only increasing the debt of gratitude us Ravens fans have for the excellent coach Mike Singletary (I was so angry when people were trashing him after the drama of his first NFL game.  Anyone notice how well he's done as an interim HC.  Of course, I love Mike Nolan too, so it's bittersweet).

The 49ers beating the Jets helped the Ravens even more than I had expected, because while it gives us three opponents from the AFC East for the playoffs, the best of those three teams will be the Division champion, so we're only competing against the second best of the Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins.  Because the Dolphins and the Jets play eachother in week 17, those teams have a maximum of 5 games between them.  Also worth nothing that if either the Jets or the Dolphins go 3-0, then they win their division with certainty.

What this means for the Ravens is that if the Ravens go 2-1, they win a wild card spot with certainty, as they'll have a better conference record than the Patriots, and only one of the Jets or Miami can go 3-0 and that will make them the division champion.  This leaves the Patriots as our most dangerous competition for a Wild Card spot.  NE could easily go 3-0, and if that makes life difficult if the Ravens go 1-2.

Dallas, however, did us no favors in giving away that Pittsburgh game.  An awful 4th quarter meltdown makes it very difficult for the Ravens to take the division.  There are exactly two possibilities that would cause a division victory.  First, I'm excluding the possibility that a Ken Dorsey led Browns can beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh.  It's just not going to happen.  This means that we need to beat the Steelers, and we need the Titans to beat them also.  If that happens, we can take the division by beating the Cowboys and Jaguars.  Alternatively, we can take the division if we lose to the Cowboys by the Strength of Victory tiebreaker (we ABSOLUTELY have to beat the Jags).  SOV is going to be really really hard, we're better off winning out (but that's also going to be really hard playing the Cowboys in Dallas under their terms and conditions.  The Steelers got to play them at home with a freezing field and no Marion Barber to expose their passing game to turnovers).  SOV boils down to the combined records of the Raiders (3-10), Dolphins (8-5), and Eagles (7-5-1) being better than the combined record of the Chargers (5-8), Patriots (8-5), and Cowboys (8-5).  As you can see, the Steelers have a freaking 2.5 game lead in this tiebreaker.  Sheesh.

1) Patriots @ Oakland - If NE loses this game, they fall behind us permanently in tiebreakers, and the only way they could finish ahead of us in record is if they win their last two games and we lose all three of our games.  Also, this would give us a full one game boost in the SOV tiebreaker with Pittsburgh.  New England is the biggest threat to keep us out of the playoffs right now.

2) Bills @ Jets - The Jets have much better tiebreakers against us than Miami does, which makes them a dangerous team also.  An upset win for Buffalo will be a big help.

3) 49ers @ Dolphins - Please keep up the good work Mike Singletary and the SF 49ers!  Still, we have the tiebreakers over the Dolphins and a Dolphins win would give us a .5 SOV gain on the Steelers.  By far the least important of the 3 NFC East games.

4a) Giants @ Dallas - Gives us .5 a win in the SOV tiebreaker, plus another loss for Dallas might cause a meltdown in that fragile locker room.

4b) Browns @ Eagles - Watch the Browns, after failing to win any games that might have helped us out, beat the Eagles to give Pitt a .5 SOV gain.  Still, with the way McNabb/Westbrook/JJ are performing, this is a likely .5 win for us.

4c) Chargers @ Chiefs - The Chiefs are one of the weirder bad teams in the league, but we can't expect them to beat the Chargers, as they are still terrible.  Still, where there is life there is hope.

7) Titans @ Texans - If we beat Pittsburgh, but the Titans beat the Texans, they will have no incentive to play hard against Pittsburgh, having clinched home field advantage.  Maybe Fisher rests his starters, maybe not, but we absolutely need the Titans to beat the Steelers to have a shot at the Division Title.

8) Lions @ Indy - The "Keep Dreaming" game of the week.  This is actually not very important anymore.  As shake n bake said, we are basically competing with Indy for the #5 seed.  If we can win some games, we'll be able to stave off the AFC East teams.  If we can't, than Indy losing games won't help us because they still have the tiebreaker over us.

This should be an exciting weekend for football, and a win against the Steelers will be by far the best help we could give ourselves heading into the final stretch.  Nevertheless, I'd love to see some help from these eight teams this weekend.

While the Ravens win was great, it's safe to say that last week did not go as well as we would have hoped.  Indy, Miami, and Pittsburgh all won, although we still gained some distance in the playoff hunt due to NE losing to Pittsburgh.  If we could find a way to make those two play every week, that would be great.  We are now essentially holding onto a 1.5 game lead for the sixth seed, with NE and Miami trailing.

1) New England @ Seattle - It's not likely to happen, but getting distance between us and New England would be huge for our playoff chances.

2) Miami @ Buffalo - Slightly less big of a deal because Buffalo is also in WC contention and has better tiebreakers, although they are a game behind.  Nonetheless, i'd rather see Miami lose and let the tiebreakers fall where they may.

3) Cincinatti @ Indy - Right, this won't happen in a million years, and it will be difficult to pull ahead of Indy regardless as they have the tiebreaker and the easier schedule.  However, and upset by Cincy will be a great boost at helping us pull ahead of them and get some more distance in the Wild Card race.

4) Dallas @ Pittsburgh - Obviously we really want Dallas to beat Pittsburgh, but that still doesn't help us much in the Division race.  The Ravens have to win out to have a shot at the division and I don't really see that happening.  Alternatively, the Steelers have to lose 3 of the next 4 games (presumably Dallas, Baltimore, and Tennesee), and while they could easily lose any of those games they are just too good of a team to lose them all.  Nevertheless, a Dallas victory is probably necessary for us to win the division, but it wouldn't be close to sufficient.

5) New York Jets @ San Francisco - San Francisco was the only team that gave us help last week, knocking Buffalo back a game in the standings.  The Jets probably have the division title in hand , and have worse tiebreakers with four AFC conference losses (the Ravens only have 3), but if the Jets do fall back into the Wild Card hunt for some reason, they will be the most dangerous team from the AFC East against us matchup wise.  A loss to SF helps us pull ahead of them as well, but doesn't hurt their tiebreakers at all.

6) Cleveland @ Tennessee - Again, TN is clearly going to win that division, but an upset loss to Cleveland keeps them fired up to play hard in the last two weeks of the season, against Pittsburgh and Indy.  It's worth something, but not much.  Cleveland, incidentally, were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to Indy.  We know they will be behind Baltimore, Pitt, Indy, and TN due to record and head to head tiebreakers.  This also means that the Ravens by default will be the 1st or 2nd place finish in the division.  Most likely second, unfortunately.

Denver will win the AFC West, and SD will come nowhere close to sniffing a WC, so we can stop thinking about those teams.

The Ravens have surprisingly found themselves in the thick of a playoff hunt.  I didn't expect this at all, but at 7-4, there is no other way to define the Ravens performance this season.  As such, I'll try to post a rooting guide so that people know what non-Ravens games have the most impact to the Ravens chances to get a coveted playoff spot.  Most important games will be listed first.

1) Indianapolis at Cleveland - Boy oh boy have the Browns struggled this season.  It caught me quite by surprise because I thought their offense would carry them through.  DA might have been overrated, but Edwards dropscapades and the struggling of an offensive line that was one of the best in the NFL last year was not something that I had anticipated.  Indy, of course, has recovered from a struggling start to be placed 1st in the Wild Card standings with head to head wins against Baltimore and New England, their two biggest competitors in the Wild Card standings.  Look, let's be absolutely clear, we want Cleveland to win this game.  Badly.  Indy is going to be a really tough team to beat out for the WC due to them having the tiebreaker and a softer schedule.  I don't dislike the Browns as much as some other posters around here, but I think we can all agree that Cleveland winning would be a great boost to our team's playoff chances.

2) Pittsburgh @ NE - This game is actually far more important to our standings as the Ravens will have an easier time beating out NE for a WC spot than Indy and we could easily see Bal and Indy as the two wild cards.  The problem, however, is that in an ideal world, we would want both teams to lose.  If Indy gets WC #5, then NE is our biggest competitor for WC #6.  However, if Pittsburgh loses at NE, that gives us a reasonable chance at taking the division, as we would catch up in the standings and have a chance to put them a game behind in Baltimore.  Pittsburgh will probably have tie-breakers over us, but the tie-breakers are going to be really, really close.  I'm rooting for NE in this game, because it would be awesome to see the Ravens get a home playoff game, but Pitt winning may give us the best chance to make it to the playoffs.

3) Miami @ St. Louis - I think Miami wins this easily, and we have the tiebreaker over them regardless.  However, an upset St. Louis win will help drive away a potential WC competitor.

4) San Francisco @ Buffalo - See #3, then replace all instances of Miami with Buffalo (minus the tiebreaker) and St. Louis with San Francisco.

5) Tennesee @ Detroit - No way TN loses to Detroit, but we should all hope that they do.  On principle, it almost always helps us when an AFC competitor loses to an NFC team, even if it's only a little.  There are some bizzarre tiebreaker situations, but whatever.  In any case, TN losing this game doesn't actually increase our mathematical chances of reaching the playoffs, but it does increase our intangible chances, which took a big blow when TN lost to the Jets.  Why?  Because TN faces Pittsbugh and Indy in the final two games of the season, two of the three biggest competitors with us for a Wild Card spot.  If TN was still perfect, we know they would bring their A game aginst Pitt and Indy.  If TN is seen to struggle at this point, they will have to bring their A game in any case to keep their #1 seed and just in general to keep the team's attitude in shape.

6) Denver @ NY Jets - It's conceivable, although unlikely, that SD could improve and contend with Denver with one of them getting a wild card.  But in actuality, we want the Jets to keep winning so that TN is fighting for the #1 seed and beats Pitt and Indy.

I think these are all the games of consequence for us (minus the most important one)  Hope this keeps everyone's Thanksgiving weekend entertaining.

This is in no way meant to be a trash-talking post.  I just thought you might like to know.

On Offense - Protecting and developing rookie QB Joe Flacco is almost as important as winning the game.  This wasn't a year the Ravens planned to contend, but Flacco is absolutely instrumental to our future.  This showed in the offensive gameplan against Cincinatti, where the Ravens ran 46 times.  That said, the Ravens offense should look eerily familiar, as Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron was the former mentor of the Browns OC Rob Chudzinski, including the unbalanced offensive line.  With former Bengals T Willie Anderson scheduled to play Sunday, there is some speculation that the Ravens will have sets where a Tackle reports eligible.  Most people seem to think it will be RT Adam Terry reporting eligible, but I suspect it might be LT Jared Gaither, who at 6 foot 9, could be a surprising pass catcher, especially in the end zone.  In any case, our offensive line is young and athletic.  They absolutely dominated the Bengals converting a perfect 6 out of 6 3rd and 1 conversions.  While both both of our starting tackles are question marks in pass coverage, we probably have one of the best interior offensive lines in the NFL. I noticed people ripping on Rexx for claiming this, but Guards Ben Grubbs and Marshall Yanda are tough players that rarely make make mistakes, and Jason Brown was named as an all-pro by SI last year as a guard (Dr. Z referred to him as a human bowling ball.  To me, the Shaun Rogers verses Jason Brown matchup will be one of the most exciting when the Ravens have the ball (I like line grudgematches).  In the passing game, we've so far relied on short passes, quick drops, the shotgun formation, no-huddle, and screens.  Flacco's largest completion against the Bengals was for 15 yards, although he underthrew a deep pass that had TD written all over it.  The key for Cleveland (this is kind of obvious) will be to force Flacco to win the game.  If the Ravens can make their gains with runs and screens, they'll keep beating it in all night.  Cincinnati controlled the ball for less than 7 minutes in the second half two weeks ago.  Obviously our passing game, quarterback (and WRs) are our biggest weakness, but I honestly don't know how weak they are, as they haven't really had many opportunities.  TE Todd Heap was terrible against Cincy, but I expect that was just a little rust and a lot of statistical noise, he has had two whole weeks to stew over it.

On Defense:  Everyone knows what the Ravens defense is about.  And everyone knows who Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are, so I won't go into that.  Our Defense was 6th in the NFL in yards allowed last year, but still was a disappointment due to a severely injured secondary.  Neither Chris McCallister nor Samari Rolle played 8 games last season, but both will play Monday.  In addition, Ed Reed will play despite his injury, although he likely won't be doing much hitting, instead being held back to play center field (which was usually his job last year).  Fabian Washington, who the Ravens brought in for CB depth last year, will most likely not be ready to play, as he is still recovering from a neck injury.  I believe that Ravens nose tackle Kelly Gregg is one of the (if not THE) most underrated player in the NFL.  Although he never has made a pro-bowl, he regularly stops running plays dead cold, often making the tackle himself despite being double teamed.  However, he is ruled out on Sunday due to a knee problem.  His replacement, Justin Bannan, is not much of a break for Cleveland, as the kid is very strong.  Our weak point is definitely our corner backs, but Samari and Chris are quite good, and will play through pain.  If I were Cleveland I'd try to play out of 3WR 1TE 1RB sets to attempt to expose our nickel backs, as they are not very good players (Nickelback Fabian Washington is good, but he is doubtful for Sunday).  A good 3rd WR would severely expose our lack of depth at corner.  That being said, what do the Browns have behind Edwards and Steptoe if Stallworth and JJ don't play?  Kellen Winslow is definitely our biggest matchup problem, but SS Dawan Landry is really quite a good player, and the Ravens may employ a linebacker to hit Winslow at the line of scrimmage and then use Landy in coverage.  Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan lives and dies by the blitz, and we may well need it verses Clevelands excellent O-line.  That being said, I'm a bit disappointed Eric Steinbach may not be playing (This is something I don't understand, why would a player be unable to practice for 3 straight days and then be listed as QST instead of DBT?).  I was looking forward to the Steinbach match-up verses Haloti Ngata.

I do believe this team is better than last years team was.  Trevor Pryce, Samari Rolle, Chris McCallister, and Todd Heap all being healthy works wonders for the teams performance.  In addition, Joe Flacco may be a rookie, but he simply can't perform worse than Steve McNair did the first half of last year.  I think this Ravens team has improved at least slightly at the QB, RB, OL, TE, DL, and CB positions due to players coming back from injuries or replacements coming in, or in the case of the Oline, a better coach and some added experience for rookie players.  This is not to say that the Ravens will return to 2006 form, but this is a much tougher game for the Browns than it was last year.

http://ravens24x7.com/forum/showthread.php?t=26999

I don't have the participation by play for week 2 against the Titans, but in week 1, they asked their 2 defensive tackles to shoulder an astounding burden. Specifically, Domata Peko played 90% of the snaps and John Thornton 87%.

By comparison, last season, Haloti Ngata turned in an iron man season with 75% of snaps for the Ravens (Gregg was 2nd at 67%). Gregg led the '06 Ravens defense at 61%. In 2000 Adams played 63.5% of the snaps and Siragusa 52% (so it's not like Marvin Lewis is not familiar with rotating linemen).

I don't honestly think it matters how bad their backups are, the Bengals will continue to get run over until they rotate more on the defensive line.

This is in no way meant to be a trash-talking post.  I just thought on offense you might like to know.

On Offense - Protecting and developing rookie QB Joe Flacco is almost as important as winning the game.  This wasn't a year the Ravens planned to contend, but Flacco is absolutely instrumental to our future.  This showed in the offensive gameplan against Cincinatti, where the Ravens ran 46 times.  Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron likes to use funky formations, such as the unbalanced offensive line (where the RT shifts to the left of the left tackle) to throw defenses off balance.  With former Bengals T Willie Anderson scheduled to play Sunday, there is some speculation that the Ravens will have sets where a Tackle reports eligible.  Most people seem to think it will be RT Adam Terry reporting eligible, but I suspect it might be LT Jared Gaither, who at 6 foot 9, could be a surprising pass catcher, especially in the end zone.  In any case, our offensively is young and athletic.  They absolutely dominated the Bengals last Sunday converting a perfect 6 out of 6 3rd and 1 conversions.  While both both of our starting tackles are question marks in pass coverage, we probably have one of the best interior offensive lines in the NFL.  In the passing game, we've so far relied on short passes, quick drops, the shotgun formation, no-huddle, and screens.  Flacco's largest completion against the Bengals was for 15 yards, although he underthrew a deep pass that had TD written all over it.  The key for Houston (this is kind of obvious) will be to force Flacco to win the game.  If the Ravens can make their gains with runs and screens, they'll keep beating it in all night.  Cincinnati controlled the ball for less than 7 minutes in the second half on Sunday.  Obviously our passing game, quarter back (and WRs) are our biggest weakness, but I honestly don't know how weak they are, as they haven't really had many opportunities.  TE Todd Heap was terrible last Sunday, but I expect that was just a little rust and a lot of statistical noise.

On Defense:  Everyone knows what the Ravens defense is about.  And everyone knows who Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are, so I won't go into that.  Our Defense was 6th in the NFL in yards allowed last year, but still was a disappointment due to a severely injured secondary.  Neither Chris McCallister nor Samari Rolle played 8 games last season, but both will play Monday.  In addition, Ed Reed will play despite his injury, although he likely won't be doing much hitting, instead being held back to play center field (which was usually his job last year).  I believe that Ravens nose tackle Kelly Gregg is one of the (if not THE) most underrated player in the NFL.  Although he never has made a pro-bowl, he regularly stops running plays dead cold, often making the tackle himself despite being double teamed.  However, he is questionable to play on Monday (my guess, however, is that he will play).  His replacement, Justin Bannan, is not much of a break for Houston, as the kid is very strong.  Our weak point is definitely our corner backs, but Samari and Chris are quite good, and will play through pain.  If I were Houston I'd try to play out of 3WR 1TE 1RB sets to attempt to expose our nickel backs, as they are not very good players (Nickelback Fabian Washington is good, but he is doubtful for Sunday).  A good 3rd WR would severely expose our lack of depth at corner.  Owen Daniels might do the trick, but SS Dawan Landry is really quite a good player, and while Owen may win that matchup, it's not by much.  Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan lives and dies by the blitz.  Expect heavy pressure on the QB, but if Matt Shaub can stay on his feet and keep his wits he will be able to find open receivers.

I really expect this to be a defensive game determined by who turns the ball over, but the key for Houston in winning the matchup will be to stop the Ravens rushing attack, as otherwise the Ravens will be able to control the ball and the game.  On offense, its up to Matt Shaub to be able to air it out against the Ravens secondary.  QBs who fare well against us usually are quick with their throws and willing to spread the ball among their receivers.

From the Baltimore Sun

I was secretly hoping this would happen.  It's a great move by the Ravens and their offense.  Neal can still play and it was a wonder he didn't sign sooner.  He's still one of the best FB in the league.  For those naysayers who say that FB isn't an important position, let me remind you that a FB who sees play on the field is vastly more important than a WR who doesn't.  This is also a great relief for pass protection, as Lorenzo Neal will definitely be an asset on pass plays, which will help our struggling line.  It's kind of cool that they are thinking of using LeRon McClain as a running back, he can put a hurt on opposing linebackers.

As soon as Neal was cut, I was hoping he would sign with us because of Cam Cameron.  The Ravens just got a little bit better today.

So, today George Sherrill pitched in the 9th when the Orioles were down by six runs.  Since this was not by any stretch a clutch inning for the O's, it's safe to assume that he was pitching for the benefit of the scouts present, and that the Orioles are seriously considering trading Sherrill.  That's good (I'm sure everyone here will agree).

In the inning, he faced five batters, gave up two singles, and struck out two.  All three outs were against left-handed batters, while both hits were against right handers.

So, my question is, was this outing a good showing for the scouts, that will help increase Sherrill's value?  Or does giving up to hits remind scouts that he's a mediocre closer?

Over on lookout landing, they keep tons of statistical information, and this particular post caught my attention.

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/7/7/566526/unlucky-hitters#comments

The way they measure "lucky" hitting is by comparing someone's line-drive percentage to their BABIP.  The average luck factor = BABIP - LD% = 11.  This relies on the knowledge that Fly balls and ground balls both have about a 90% fielding percentage, while line drives have a 30% fielding percentage (although I'm not sure how they get the number 11 from those numbers) so a player that hits more line drives should get more hits.

As this pertains to the Orioles, Ramon Hernandez has been one of the unluckiest hitters this season, with a LD% of 22.2% and a BABIP of .257, giving a luck factor of .035.  This more or less confirms what we already suspected about Ramon, and hopefully he'll continue his improved prouduction through the second half. 
The second unlucky Oriole is ... Melvin Mora!  With a LD% of 19 and a BABIP of .243, he has been getting an ugly 5.3 luck factor, which might have something to do with his terrible season.  Hopefully we can expect his numbers to improve during the second half as well.

As for lucky hitters, we have Adam Jones, who has an LD% of only 17.9% and a BABIP of .356!  I suppose this means that he won't be likely to keep up his performance during the second half, but that might be mitigated by the fact that he has generally been improving as a hitter this season.  In addition, I would assume being fast as hell also increases your BABIP.

As a side note, all-star phony Jason Varitek is also one of the luckiest hitters in baseball.  Sure, his BABIP is only .275, but his LD% is a paltry 12.10%  That is terriible folks.  The only current Oriole with a lower LD% is Guillermo Quiroz, with and LD% of 11.5%.  Incredible.

Today Traschel and Loewen pitched, which means

Friday - Guthrie

Saturday - Cabrera

Sunday - Burres,

and by Monday, no-one has had the traditional 4 days rest.  Could this mean a start for Matt Albers?  We wouldn't seriously ask Trax or Low to skip a days rest, that seems to be asking for trouble, right?  I wouldn't mind seeing Albers start, he's looked OK in long relief, but I wonder if Trembley thinks he's ready.