SB Nation User Blog: math_geek

Koji Uehara's pitching and stats broken down at Fangraphs

math_geek — Sun, 17 May 2009 16:42:02 -0000

Koji Uehara's pitching and stats broken down at Fangraphs

It's just a really great article about Koji's pitch types and early season numbers.

Melvin Mora's back

math_geek — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 20:27:01 -0000

Melvin Mora's back

Albers to Norfolk. Hopefully Albers can get his stuff worked out. He was pretty good for us last year until the injury. This team was due some playoff-style bunting.

The Ravens are really good at drafting

math_geek — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 23:06:15 -0000

The most stunning result from this particular weekend is the results of the Ravens three draft day trades. They traded twice with the New England Patriots and once with the Denver Broncos, and it was pretty much a cup game. They literally walked out with more value than they walked in by almost any metric. They walked in with 6 picks (#26, #57, #88, #123, #162, #198) and walked out with 6 picks (#23, #57, #88, #137, #149, #185). Here's how it went down...

The Ravens decided that they had to have OT Michael Oher, and Bill Bellichek seemed to want no part of the first round. So we traded a fifth round pick (#162) to move up three spots in the first round while the Patriots flew out of it. I love this trade and pick, because Michael Oher was a player I had written off any chance of the Ravens getting. I think he was one of the top 10 players in the draft and a huge steal for the Ravens at #23... but that's still my opinion, and only the beginning of the story.

Then the Ravens, when they were going to make their fourth round pick, chose to trade it and their sixth round picks to the Patriots for two fifth round picks. This was picks (#123 and #198) for (#137 and #141). A late fourth and sixth rounder for two fifth round picks, not bad. Finally, when it came to #141, they traded it for a later fifth round pick plus a sixth round pick (#149, #185). Finally, the Ravens had six picks, exactly where they started with. But that's not all. What this essentially means is that in order to move up and take Oher, the Ravens had to give the Patriots... 9 spots in the late 4th round of the draft. That's it. Move up 3 spots in the first round, move down 9 spots in the 4th round. Wait, no, the Ravens weren't satisfied with that deal, they held out for getting to move up 13 spots in the fifth round and 13 spots in the sixth round. There is literally no metric that makes any sense that could possibly argue against the fact that the Ravens walked out of the draft with literally better draft picks than they walked in with.

Now, if the Ravens scouting was as good as the Ravens draft day dealing, this will be one hell of a draft to remember.

The Big Board

math_geek — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 02:34:25 -0000

A lot of people don't really understand what a team's Big Board might look like, and I've decided that I can start an exciting conversation about the draft and explain what a Team's Big Board might look like. First a couple facts.

A Big Board consists of a list of players. Each player is listed with a position (or positions) that he would likely play on the team and a grade. This grade will at least include what round value the team thinks the player has, but many teams increase that to "early 1st round" or "late 2nd round" separation for the early rounds.

Note that not every player will be on a team's big board, and while there is a lot of ranking, the groups are much more important than the ranking. For example, Matt Stafford, despite that he is an excellent quarterback prospect, will not even be on the Ravens big board. They won't grade him and they won't draft him because he would simply be a distraction to the team, given that we have a franchise QB. Stafford may be the #1 guy on another team's draft board. The other case is someone like Andre Smith, who cleanly wiped himself off of many draft boards due to his behaviour at the combine. Some teams wouldn't draft him regardless of the circumstances, while others will simply put a lower grade on him.

Finally, the Ravens will not have 32 players with 1st round grades. They may not even have 26 players with 1st round grades. A team that watches every player that they've deemed worthy of a 1st rounder is in a tough spot. That team will probably try to trade down no matter the circumstances. For example, last year the Ravens had only 3 players that they felt were worthy of the #8 pick, widely believed to be Matt Ryan, Chris Long, and Sedrick Ellis. Glenn Dorsey didn't fit their scheme, and I think it was already clear the Dolphins were drafting Jake Long, but I'm not sure. When those 3 players were drafted, they simply traded down with the Jaguars, taking a well below "draft chart" deal to do it. It worked out for them, however, as they were able to draft Joe Flacco #18 when they might well have drafted him #8!!!

So, what might the Ravens "Big Board" look like? Here are a list of players I think are widely considered to be 1st round possibilities.

QB - Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
RB - Knowshown Moreno, Chris Wells
WR - Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Darius Heyward Bey, Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Kenny Britt
TE Brandon Pettigrew
OT Eugene Monroe, Jason Smith, Michael Oher, Andre Smith, Ebon Britton
G/C Duke Robinson, Alex Mack
DT BJ Raji, Peria Jerry, Evander Hood
DE Brian Orakpo Everette Brown, Tyson Jackson, Michael Johnson, Aaron Maybin, Larry English
LB Aaron Curry, Rey Maualuga, Brian Cushing, James Laurinitis
CB Malcolm Jenkins, Vontae Davis, Darius Butler, Alphonso Smith, Sean Smith

Everbody's list is going to be different, and this is really just a quick crack at it. This is thirty six players already, so if you get upset that I left someone off, make sure you can find someone he's clearly better than. But again, I'm not aiming for perfection.

Next up is eliminating some of these players off the board. The quarterbacks are simply not options for the Ravens early thanks to Joe Flacco. I'm honestly a little shaky on both Moreno and Wells, and although Ozzie has drafted running backs early before (Jamal Lewis and Ray Rice), it's not his favorite position to draft early either. Plus we have invested in three separate running backs at this point that all figure to get carries. If I thought Knowshon Moreno was a superb prospect I'd put him on the board, butI simply don't. I simply don't really see Ebon Britton as a 1st round prospect, I just realize that OT is a position people reach for. WR is the shakiest position to draft (including QB!) and if the Ravens go here they are going to want to be very careful. Rumor has it that they are looking to "hit a double" as opposed to a "home run." I agree with that philosophy and think if you are going to spend a 1st round pick on a WR he should be an excellent route runner, blocker, physical, etc. That takes out Jeremy Maclin, Darius Heyward Bey, and Percy Harvin, leaving three physical, very skilled receivers on the board. This may be too many, as not a single WR was drafted in the first round last year, which might be a trend. I simply don't like Duke Robinson that much, as we can find excellent guards later in the draft and are loaded at the position right now. The Ravens do seem to like Alex Mack though, so we'll leve him on the board.

Cut from the first round - Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman, Britton, Wells, Moreno, DHB, Maclin, Harvin (Nine players)

As for defense, I don't see Michael Johnson fitting our scheme, and believe Aaron Maybin is an overrated 1 year wonder. James Laurinitis is also not a fit for our scheme. I think Evander Hood is also really a 4-3 guy. Peria Jerry is also really a 3-technique, which are not heavily employed by the Ravens. Larry English is a solid pass rusher, but not much else, which is difficult for the Ravens where they ask for a large skill-set out of every player.

Cut from the first round - Johnson, Maybin, Laurinitis, Hood, Jerry, English (six players).

So on my "Big Board" we only have 21 players that get a 1st round grade. WOW. That was fun. So now to form a ranking

Aaron Curry - Pairing him with Ray Lewis would be simply absurd. Not the biggest need, but probably the best player.
Michael Crabtree - a simply excellent receiver prospect. Not as fast as some like, but he's still the full package.
Eugene Monroe - Superb tackle would solve all our offensive line problems
Jason Smith - above, but with less polish and run-blocking
Brian Orakpo - play him opposite from Suggs and watch the sparks fly.
Malcolm Jenkins - was the player I most wanted at the beginning of the season. Concerns about his timed speed might drop him because teams are stupid. Watch him play and tell me he is slow.
Everette Brown - Stock is rising... rising... RISING
BJ Raji - What, we've already got Haloti Ngata? We'll figure out something awesome with two awesome tackles. He's really good, even if he doesn't fit a need, the Ravens love to draft defensive linemen.
Michael Oher - Honestly, I might be underrating him. See Monroe and Smith, but some intelligence concerns that are heavily overhyped. He's awesome.
Vontae Davis - the above nine I consider the elite prospects that we might consider trading up for. From now on we're talking second half first round prospects. Vontae will likely be taken by #26, but there's a chance he might fall as rumor has it the corners are dropping as a position due to a strong free agent class. If he fell to us that would be the ideal scenario for the Ravins. Vontae is really really good and would make our secondary elite.
Tyson Jackson - when a supertalented defensive lineman who perfectly fits your system at a position where your starter is 34 and there is no heir apparent falls to you, you thank God for blessing your team and waltz write up to the podium and take him. Consider this the Haloti Ngata rule where Phil Savage "outsmarted us" by getting a 6th round pick for letting us take Haloti when clearly he was better off with Kameiron Wimbley. Hilarious.
Brandon Pettigrew - A superb blocker and solid pass catcher. Don't think of this as a replacement for Heap. We can start the both of them and they'll compliment eachother very nicely. 2 TE sets are also effective against zone-blitzing 3-4 defenses, not that I can see how that's relevant.
Kenny Britt - underrated by a lot of draftnicks. The man has more speed than we give him credit for, and has all the underrated qualities in a WR (route running, run blocking, getting off the line of scrimmage, abilitiy to go over the middle). Attitude issues are a concern, as he could become a headache, but most WRs are headaches, so we're kind of stuck.
Hakeem Nicks - He's an extremely polished route runner who should be a very good receiver in the NFL. He lacks the attitude of Kenny Britt, but is still physical and won't likely give the team headaches. But this guy really isn't that fast and won't be the downfield threat that Cam Cameron wants.
Rey Maualuga - He's a bit overrated because he can't "do it all" as a linebacker, but he's still really really good.
Darius Butler - Absurdly underrated corner.
Sean Smith - playing speed is still a concern, but he could be a steal. I think he's more risky than the Ravens might be going for, but the upside of Nmandi Asomougha is one heck of an upside.
Alphonso Smith - yes the 5 foot 9 is a concern, and limits his upside, but he's could very well be Cortland Finnegan.
Andre Smith - he's still on here, as he's simply too talented and his film is too good despite the character concerns, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens took him off their board.
Brian Cushing - Injury prone, but excellent when healthy.
Alex Mack - Taking interior offensive line early is never that much fun, but Alex Mack is a very good player that will keep our offensive line going when Matt Birk hangs up his cleets. Center is so important in our division.

So there you have it. 21 players total in the 1st round, but it's still likely the Ravens get a player they think is worth the #26.

Orioles out of options

math_geek — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 00:49:23 -0000

From Peter Schmuck, Brian Bass, David Pauley, Hayden Penn, Dennis Sarfate, Scott Moore, Felix Pie and Jeremy Guthrie are out of minor league options, along with Rich Hill if we trade for him. Guthrie is obviously a non-issue, as are Pie and Sarfate, but this probably spells doom for Scott Moore. If Trembley goes with the 3 man bench (probable), those three would almost certainly be a catcher, Freel, and a guy who can play shortstop, which leaves Moore plum out of it.

Brian Bass, Hayden Penn, David Pauley are all of course going to be competing for spots in the starting rotation.

Chris Ray, Jimmy Johnson, George Sherrill, Dennis Sarfate have a stranglehold on four rotation spots, leaving four left for the taking.

Orioles Rule 5 Selections

math_geek — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 17:42:56 -0000

Orioles Rule 5 Selections

From Peter Schmuck.

C Lou Palmisano from the Nashville Sounds (Milwaukee Brewers)
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/P/lou-palmisano.shtml

SS Robert Valido from the Birmingham Barons (White Sox)
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/v/robert-valido.shtml

I haven't looked closely at their histories yet, but this seems like good news.

UPDATE (from duck): We've already flipped Lou Palmisano. From The Sun:
"The Orioles selected catcher Lou Palmisano from the Milwaukee Brewers organization with the fifth pick of today's Rule 5 Draft, but then traded him to the Houston Astros for cash considerations."

Ravens Week 15 Rooting Guide

math_geek — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 21:16:51 -0000

With a big win over the Redskins, the Ravens are still plugging along successfully on their way to a playoff berth. That three game losing streak really feels distant right now doesn't it? Unfortunately, once again, the only team that decided to help our Ravens out this week were the San Francisco 49ers, only increasing the debt of gratitude us Ravens fans have for the excellent coach Mike Singletary (I was so angry when people were trashing him after the drama of his first NFL game. Anyone notice how well he's done as an interim HC. Of course, I love Mike Nolan too, so it's bittersweet).

The 49ers beating the Jets helped the Ravens even more than I had expected, because while it gives us three opponents from the AFC East for the playoffs, the best of those three teams will be the Division champion, so we're only competing against the second best of the Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins. Because the Dolphins and the Jets play eachother in week 17, those teams have a maximum of 5 games between them. Also worth nothing that if either the Jets or the Dolphins go 3-0, then they win their division with certainty.

What this means for the Ravens is that if the Ravens go 2-1, they win a wild card spot with certainty, as they'll have a better conference record than the Patriots, and only one of the Jets or Miami can go 3-0 and that will make them the division champion. This leaves the Patriots as our most dangerous competition for a Wild Card spot. NE could easily go 3-0, and if that makes life difficult if the Ravens go 1-2.

Dallas, however, did us no favors in giving away that Pittsburgh game. An awful 4th quarter meltdown makes it very difficult for the Ravens to take the division. There are exactly two possibilities that would cause a division victory. First, I'm excluding the possibility that a Ken Dorsey led Browns can beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh. It's just not going to happen. This means that we need to beat the Steelers, and we need the Titans to beat them also. If that happens, we can take the division by beating the Cowboys and Jaguars. Alternatively, we can take the division if we lose to the Cowboys by the Strength of Victory tiebreaker (we ABSOLUTELY have to beat the Jags). SOV is going to be really really hard, we're better off winning out (but that's also going to be really hard playing the Cowboys in Dallas under their terms and conditions. The Steelers got to play them at home with a freezing field and no Marion Barber to expose their passing game to turnovers). SOV boils down to the combined records of the Raiders (3-10), Dolphins (8-5), and Eagles (7-5-1) being better than the combined record of the Chargers (5-8), Patriots (8-5), and Cowboys (8-5). As you can see, the Steelers have a freaking 2.5 game lead in this tiebreaker. Sheesh.

1) Patriots @ Oakland - If NE loses this game, they fall behind us permanently in tiebreakers, and the only way they could finish ahead of us in record is if they win their last two games and we lose all three of our games. Also, this would give us a full one game boost in the SOV tiebreaker with Pittsburgh. New England is the biggest threat to keep us out of the playoffs right now.

2) Bills @ Jets - The Jets have much better tiebreakers against us than Miami does, which makes them a dangerous team also. An upset win for Buffalo will be a big help.

3) 49ers @ Dolphins - Please keep up the good work Mike Singletary and the SF 49ers! Still, we have the tiebreakers over the Dolphins and a Dolphins win would give us a .5 SOV gain on the Steelers. By far the least important of the 3 NFC East games.

4a) Giants @ Dallas - Gives us .5 a win in the SOV tiebreaker, plus another loss for Dallas might cause a meltdown in that fragile locker room.

4b) Browns @ Eagles - Watch the Browns, after failing to win any games that might have helped us out, beat the Eagles to give Pitt a .5 SOV gain. Still, with the way McNabb/Westbrook/JJ are performing, this is a likely .5 win for us.

4c) Chargers @ Chiefs - The Chiefs are one of the weirder bad teams in the league, but we can't expect them to beat the Chargers, as they are still terrible. Still, where there is life there is hope.

7) Titans @ Texans - If we beat Pittsburgh, but the Titans beat the Texans, they will have no incentive to play hard against Pittsburgh, having clinched home field advantage. Maybe Fisher rests his starters, maybe not, but we absolutely need the Titans to beat the Steelers to have a shot at the Division Title.

8) Lions @ Indy - The "Keep Dreaming" game of the week. This is actually not very important anymore. As shake n bake said, we are basically competing with Indy for the #5 seed. If we can win some games, we'll be able to stave off the AFC East teams. If we can't, than Indy losing games won't help us because they still have the tiebreaker over us.

This should be an exciting weekend for football, and a win against the Steelers will be by far the best help we could give ourselves heading into the final stretch. Nevertheless, I'd love to see some help from these eight teams this weekend.

Baltimore Ravens Week 14 Rooting Guide

math_geek — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 21:43:07 -0000

While the Ravens win was great, it's safe to say that last week did not go as well as we would have hoped. Indy, Miami, and Pittsburgh all won, although we still gained some distance in the playoff hunt due to NE losing to Pittsburgh. If we could find a way to make those two play every week, that would be great. We are now essentially holding onto a 1.5 game lead for the sixth seed, with NE and Miami trailing.

1) New England @ Seattle - It's not likely to happen, but getting distance between us and New England would be huge for our playoff chances.

2) Miami @ Buffalo - Slightly less big of a deal because Buffalo is also in WC contention and has better tiebreakers, although they are a game behind. Nonetheless, i'd rather see Miami lose and let the tiebreakers fall where they may.

3) Cincinatti @ Indy - Right, this won't happen in a million years, and it will be difficult to pull ahead of Indy regardless as they have the tiebreaker and the easier schedule. However, and upset by Cincy will be a great boost at helping us pull ahead of them and get some more distance in the Wild Card race.

4) Dallas @ Pittsburgh - Obviously we really want Dallas to beat Pittsburgh, but that still doesn't help us much in the Division race. The Ravens have to win out to have a shot at the division and I don't really see that happening. Alternatively, the Steelers have to lose 3 of the next 4 games (presumably Dallas, Baltimore, and Tennesee), and while they could easily lose any of those games they are just too good of a team to lose them all. Nevertheless, a Dallas victory is probably necessary for us to win the division, but it wouldn't be close to sufficient.

5) New York Jets @ San Francisco - San Francisco was the only team that gave us help last week, knocking Buffalo back a game in the standings. The Jets probably have the division title in hand , and have worse tiebreakers with four AFC conference losses (the Ravens only have 3), but if the Jets do fall back into the Wild Card hunt for some reason, they will be the most dangerous team from the AFC East against us matchup wise. A loss to SF helps us pull ahead of them as well, but doesn't hurt their tiebreakers at all.

6) Cleveland @ Tennessee - Again, TN is clearly going to win that division, but an upset loss to Cleveland keeps them fired up to play hard in the last two weeks of the season, against Pittsburgh and Indy. It's worth something, but not much. Cleveland, incidentally, were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to Indy. We know they will be behind Baltimore, Pitt, Indy, and TN due to record and head to head tiebreakers. This also means that the Ravens by default will be the 1st or 2nd place finish in the division. Most likely second, unfortunately.

Denver will win the AFC West, and SD will come nowhere close to sniffing a WC, so we can stop thinking about those teams.

Image FanShot

math_geek — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 21:26:09 -0000

Ravens Rooting Guide Week 13

math_geek — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:00:16 -0000

The Ravens have surprisingly found themselves in the thick of a playoff hunt. I didn't expect this at all, but at 7-4, there is no other way to define the Ravens performance this season. As such, I'll try to post a rooting guide so that people know what non-Ravens games have the most impact to the Ravens chances to get a coveted playoff spot. Most important games will be listed first.

1) Indianapolis at Cleveland - Boy oh boy have the Browns struggled this season. It caught me quite by surprise because I thought their offense would carry them through. DA might have been overrated, but Edwards dropscapades and the struggling of an offensive line that was one of the best in the NFL last year was not something that I had anticipated. Indy, of course, has recovered from a struggling start to be placed 1st in the Wild Card standings with head to head wins against Baltimore and New England, their two biggest competitors in the Wild Card standings. Look, let's be absolutely clear, we want Cleveland to win this game. Badly. Indy is going to be a really tough team to beat out for the WC due to them having the tiebreaker and a softer schedule. I don't dislike the Browns as much as some other posters around here, but I think we can all agree that Cleveland winning would be a great boost to our team's playoff chances.

2) Pittsburgh @ NE - This game is actually far more important to our standings as the Ravens will have an easier time beating out NE for a WC spot than Indy and we could easily see Bal and Indy as the two wild cards. The problem, however, is that in an ideal world, we would want both teams to lose. If Indy gets WC #5, then NE is our biggest competitor for WC #6. However, if Pittsburgh loses at NE, that gives us a reasonable chance at taking the division, as we would catch up in the standings and have a chance to put them a game behind in Baltimore. Pittsburgh will probably have tie-breakers over us, but the tie-breakers are going to be really, really close. I'm rooting for NE in this game, because it would be awesome to see the Ravens get a home playoff game, but Pitt winning may give us the best chance to make it to the playoffs.

3) Miami @ St. Louis - I think Miami wins this easily, and we have the tiebreaker over them regardless. However, an upset St. Louis win will help drive away a potential WC competitor.

4) San Francisco @ Buffalo - See #3, then replace all instances of Miami with Buffalo (minus the tiebreaker) and St. Louis with San Francisco.

5) Tennesee @ Detroit - No way TN loses to Detroit, but we should all hope that they do. On principle, it almost always helps us when an AFC competitor loses to an NFC team, even if it's only a little. There are some bizzarre tiebreaker situations, but whatever. In any case, TN losing this game doesn't actually increase our mathematical chances of reaching the playoffs, but it does increase our intangible chances, which took a big blow when TN lost to the Jets. Why? Because TN faces Pittsbugh and Indy in the final two games of the season, two of the three biggest competitors with us for a Wild Card spot. If TN was still perfect, we know they would bring their A game aginst Pitt and Indy. If TN is seen to struggle at this point, they will have to bring their A game in any case to keep their #1 seed and just in general to keep the team's attitude in shape.

6) Denver @ NY Jets - It's conceivable, although unlikely, that SD could improve and contend with Denver with one of them getting a wild card. But in actuality, we want the Jets to keep winning so that TN is fighting for the #1 seed and beats Pitt and Indy.

I think these are all the games of consequence for us (minus the most important one) Hope this keeps everyone's Thanksgiving weekend entertaining.