Cubs Top 20 Prospect List

matts89 — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 16:29:07 -0000

Cubs Top 20 Prospect List

WrigleyBound gives their top 20 Cubs prospect list.

New Cubs Minor League Website

matts89 — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 23:22:48 -0000

New Cubs Minor League Website

WrigleyBound, a website for hardcore Cubs fans with detailed scouting reports, links, and daily updates.

Right now looking for suggestions for players to profile.

Where does Rick Porcello fit?

matts89 — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 20:38:38 -0000

Coming out of high school armed with a mid-upper 90’s heater and demanding an astronomical signing bonus, Porcello was touted as the best high school pitcher since Josh Beckett. Prospect enthusiasts and experts alike drooled over his big frame, his athleticism and his delivery with visions of a Clayton Kershaw-like rise to the major leagues marked by pure dominance and high strikeout totals at every level. He was rated the 21st best prospect by BA and 11th by BP before ever throwing a professional pitch.

And then the season began, and Porcello struck out just 13.7% of the hitters he faced, or 5.18 K/9. He still dominated with a 2.66 ERA and a 65% GB rate, but not in the way the baseball world was expecting. All of this begs the question, what kind of prospect is Porcello going forward?

19 (Hi A)- 2.66 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 5.18 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 65% GB

What sets Porcello apart from most high school pitchers in their first professional experience is that he does not throw his fastball as hard as he can, because he doesn’t have to. He has incredible life on his heater, a hard sink that accounts in part for his high groundball rates. This hard sink of course is made even more effective by the downward plane on the ball due to his 6’5 frame. You can see how impressive it really is here:

http://rotoexperts.com/content/view/294/108/

By all accounts he has very good control over it, and can locate it with ease. He also sports a hard curveball, though he doesn’t use it much, a changeup that improves every day and really surprised scouts with its effectiveness, and a slider that has plus potential but that he hardly needs to develop.

It would appear that instead of throwing, Porcello is really focusing on pitching, and that is an exciting thing for a 19 year old with his stuff to be doing. So many guys come up and throw hard but not particularly well that it is refreshing to see such a talented player who realizes he doesn’t have to use every bit of his fastball, and instead prefers to get groundballs and control the strike zone. This is also a great sign for Porcello’s future, as it will reduce the risk of injury and perhaps keep him an effective pitcher even when he loses a few ticks off his fastball.

Maybe the best comparison for Porcello is Roy Halladay, the 6’6 Blue Jay ace. With similar frames, deep repertoires, and a propensity for groundballs, the two seem to be a perfect fit. Check out a comparison of each pitcher’s Hi-A seasons:

Halladay, 19 (Hi A) 2.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 5.95 K/9, 2.5 BB/9

Porcello, 19 (Hi A)- 2.66 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 5.18 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 65% GB

I can’t find Halladay’s GB% for that season, but his MLB career rate is near 60%. This comparison, along with other more loose ones (Brandon Webb for GB% and sinker, Justin Verlander for frame and velocity) only convince me that Porcello’s chances of being a great major league pitcher actually increased over the past season. While I’m sure BA and others will mention how his “strikeout rates are concerning” or something along those lines, I am encouraged by them because often times the best pitchers do not rely on Ks, because I see him as a workhorse down the road, and because of the company it puts him in. Coming into the season, I read several places that if you were going to bet on any current teenager to make the major leagues, it should be Brett Anderson. Well Anderson turned 20, so my money is now on Rick Porcello. I would be absolutely shocked if he didn’t end up as a good SP in the major leagues, and mildly surprised if he wasn't an ace.

To be clear, I am not saying all teenaged pitchers who have good years in A ball without striking anybody out are legitimate prospects. I am saying that if they do that with 4 plus pitches, a big frame, great makeup and the ability to throw in the upper 90’s, they’re excellent prospects in my book.

SB Nation User Blog: matts89

Cubs Top 20 Prospect List