SB Nation User Blog: mattwelch

Think About Brandon Wood When You Watch the Phillies

mattwelch — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 19:49:22 -0000

Why You Should Think About Brandon Wood Every Time You Watch the Phillies

Do you feel like Brandon Wood has never been given his shot, that Mike Scioscia has kept him down far longer than any good prospect should rot in the minors? Conversely, do you think that the mere fact that Wood is going into his age-25 year without having earned a spot is telling in itself, and/or are you of the mind that unproven players of that age (or even slightly older) are "too old to be a prospect"?

Well, let me introduce you to Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth. You may have heard of them. A combined 9 All-Star selections, 5 seasons (and soon to be more) in the Top 10 of MVP voting; 9 seasons in the Top 25. Ten seasons scoring 100 runs, 12 seasons driving in 100, 10 seasons hitting 30 homers. Some good baserunning & defense for extra spice. Back-to-back World Series appearances.

Where were they, development wise, compared to Richard Wood?

Plate appearances through age-22 season:
83 Shane Victorino
33 Wood
0 Ryan Howard
0 Chase Utley
0 Raul Ibanez
0 Jayson Werth

Through age 23:
190 Wood
83 Victorino
53 Werth
0 Howard
0 Utley
0 Ibanez

Through age 24:
236 Wood
152 Utley
104 Werth
102 Victornio
42 Howard
6 Ibanez

In fact, the Phillies whole roster is filled with guys who would have loved to be where Wood is right now: all but assured of a starting spot at age 25, after having already spent parts of three seasons in the Show. Carlos Ruiz didn't see a Major League pitch until age 27. Pedro Feliz started his decade-long career at age 25. Matt Stairs had one home run through his age-27 year; he has 259 now.

I can say with confidence that Brandon Wood will not be as good as Chase Utley. But to say that his 236 plate appearances so far amount to either criminal development negligence or proof positive that he won't excell is, I think, inaccurate.

MLB Selling "Yankees 2009 American League Champs" Gear!

mattwelch — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 18:39:48 -0000

MLB Selling "Yankees 2009 American League Champs" Gear!

Read it and seethe. Link via the L.A. Times.

Figgy's 4-Game Brutality Streak(s)

mattwelch — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 14:22:44 -0000

So, has Chone Figgins gone through a four-game stretch this year remotely as brutal as this postseason's 0-fer-16 w/ just one walk? Why yes, he did, from May 8-12, when he was 0-fer-14 w/ just one walk. What did he do in, oh, the 12 games immediately following? This:

That's 22 hits, 5 walks, 7 runs, 7 stolen bases, and a batting line of .396/.448/.491.

Yes, I realize that looking at him now he seems lost, bewildered, scared, weird. But then he always looks terrible when going through an offensive rut. It's strange for Figgins & most other good big league players to maintain such a low level of suckitude for much longer than he already has.

Poll

Figgy from here on out

teh suck

25 votes

teh meh

20 votes

panther

33 votes

78 votes | Poll has closed

Classy Vlad quote about Adenhart

mattwelch — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 01:54:20 -0000

Classy Vlad quote about Adenhart

"I'm not going to say it's my biggest hit, but one thing it brings to mind is that we lost a teammate earlier this year," Guerrero said through an interpreter.

"When it comes down to honoring Nick Adenhart, in that respect, yes, it's probably the biggest hit of my career, because I'm dedicating it to a former teammate, a guy who passed away."

Torii on Hendu's first pitch: "That was terrible"

mattwelch — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 01:49:31 -0000

Torii on Hendu's first pitch: "That was terrible"

Great quote from our resident quotesmith:

"That was terrible," Angels center fielder Torii Hunter said. "I love Dave Henderson, but looking at that, I'm like, 'What are they trying to say?' They probably shouldn't have brought him out. It was bad luck, I guess."

Haw Haw, Baseball Prospectus!

mattwelch — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 16:54:19 -0000

By now, most people on this site are probably at least dimly aware that the go-to site for a certain sector of the stat-head crowd, Baseball Prospectus, picked the Angels to finish with just 84 wins this year (as least as far as I'm able to ascertain). This is, of course, nothing new for PECOTA and the Halos.

But what you probably didn't know was just how much abuse the B-Pro gang hurled at the Angels right before the season, in their annual guide. I only found out a couple of weeks back, when flipping through the book at a Baltimore Barnes & Noble. Such was the level of vitriol that I went home and immediately bought a used copy for the price of shipping. It arrived yesterday. Some highlights, interspersed with my reactions:

[T]he Angels were arguably the worst 100-win team of all time. [...] [T]he Angels' winding up a major-league-record 16 games better than their opponents-adjusted projected finish suggests that getting Teixeira might have represented more than just the cherry on top. His acquisition might have been a modest start to addressing a roster that simply still wasn't good enough to contend with the beasts from the AL East. Losing another season in the same fashion leaves us with the question of whether the Angels' brand of baseball is no more a formula for postseason success than, say, Billy Beane's poopadoodle. Making good contact and running the bases effectively is all well and good, but is it really an operating philosophy, or is it instead a matter of fetishizing tactics in the absence of actual strategy? [...]

[T]he Halos [were] not only history's weakest 100-win team, but also the going-away victors in a relatively pathetic division[.]

I will address the issue of the best and worst 100-win teams in a different post, because there's a lot of rabbits down them thar holes, but for now let's just address the Billy Beane playoff comparison: Oakland's record in post-season series under Beane is 1-5. The Angels under Scioscia? 4-4. Poop-a-doodle-doo!

For more fun, keep reading after the jump!

More from the 2009 Baseball Prospectus:

[P]redictably, the Angels were fortunate in one-run outcomes, going 31-21 in such contests. That represents almost a third of their schedule. Only four teams played in as many or more one-run gams last season, and of those four, only one, the Giants, who matched the Halos by also going 31-21, enjoyed the Angels' good fortune: the Blue Jays (24-32), Twins (26-26), and Cardinals (24-28) were not so lucky.

Emphases mine, to emphasize the bizarre notion that performance in one-run games is "luck," versus the apparent "skill" of winning games decided by two runs or more. WTF? At any rate, the Angels' record in one-run games WAS WORSE THAN THEIR RECORD IN THEIR OTHER GAMES, YA MAROONS -- .596 winning percentage compared to .627. To say that their one-run performance was partly responsible for "those magic 16 wins" separating B-Pro's adjusted Pythagoras and the suspiciously unadjusted won-loss record that the playoffs are organized around, is akin to saying that Reggie Willits is partly responsible for his team hitting home runs. It do not make sense.

[T]he Angels were a bad offensive ballclub.

Yes, the 2008 team finished 10th out 14 in runs scored. But their 4.72 runs per game was just a shade off the league average of 4.78 runs per game; they were closer to the 5th place White Sox (4.98 r/g, in a hitters park) than they were to the 11th place Blue Jays (4.41). Mediocre, sure, but bad? Let's see how Baseball Prospectus described the 9th-place offensive team, the Tampa Bay Rays, who scored all of 9 more runs:

[T]he offense labored under a popular misconception that they were not a good hitting team[.]

Got that? 4.72 runs per game = "bad," 4.78 r/g = "good." Even with Tampa being a tougher place to hit, that discrepancy is ridiculous.

Back to the 100-game winners:

Did the Angels have a great rotation? Again, not especially: the unit wasn't terribly impressive compared with those of other playoff teams, ranking ahead of only the White Sox in per-game rate for Support-Neutral Lineup-Adjust Value Above Replacement (SLNVA_R) among the eight that made it to October[.]

Not to snicker and snivel at SLNVA_R, but I'm guessing that it measured the 45 lousy starts by pitchers who weren't going to touch a playoff appearance with a 10-foot pole. Take the front 4 starters from the 8 playoff teams of 2008 (which for Milwaukee means minus Ben Sheets, who was hurt), rank them by ERA+ (ERA adjusted for ballpark effects), and you get this:

TEA GS   IP   ER   W-L  ERA  ERA+ I/S

MIL  81 513.1 213 30-22 3.73 143 6.34

CHC 109 671.0 257 53-22 3.45 138 6.16

BOS 119 733.0 290 56-30 3.56 133 6.16

LAD 104 631.1 244 41-35 3.48 125 6.07

LAA 117 757.0 313 56-29 3.72 120 6.47

CHW 133 828.1 360 56-45 3.91 119 6.23

PHI 109 684.1 288 44-30 3.79 118 6.28

TBD 122 745.1 304 50-34 3.67 118 6.11

That's "Innings per Start" over there on the right; note that the Angels led that category along with tying for 1st in wins, finishing 2nd in winning percentage, 5th in ERA & ERA+. Milwaukee's high ranking is a C.C. Sabathia-induced fluke; three-quarters of their playoff rotation was Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, and some rookie named Gallardo. The Dodgers never really had a number four (I inserted Greg Maddux, who they probably would have used in the World Series). I'd say that Chicago and Boston clearly headed this pack, and then it's pretty much a toss-up the rest of the way, though the Angels had as good a case as anyone for #3.

What about the Prospectus prognosis for this year's Angels?

[T]he real problem area, the action item that really needs addressing, is pretty straightforward: the Angels are yet again in danger of getting crummy production from the power positions, and not just from their left fielders and DHs, but now also from first base in the wake of Mark Teixeira's defection via free agency. While the club holds reasonable hope that Kendry Morales and a fully healthy Juan Rivera might make a difference at one or perhaps two of these slots, these represent fractional improvements over a broken-down Garret Anderson or free-agent boondoggle Gary Matthews Jr.

Let's see, what kind of production did the Angels get from power positions? As of Friday night's close:

DH: .299/.351/.473, 25 HRs, 104/92  R/RBI (4th in OPS, 1st in R & BA)

1B: .295/.346/.536, 33 HRs,  87/110 R/RBI (4th in OPS)

LF: .270/.310/.430, 24 HRs,  85/88  R/RBI (11th in OPS)

RF: .282/.368/.432, 18 HRs, 102/116 R/RBI (8th in OPS, 1st in R & RBI)

I guess that "danger" didn't quite pan out. How about the "fractional improvements" of Juan Rivera over G.A., Kendry Morales over Gary Matthews, Jr.?

JR: .285/.329/.473, 25 HRs, 70/87

GA: .273/.307/.408, 13 HRs, 52/61


KM: .304/.353/.571, 34 HRs, 85/107

GM: .251/.339/.362,  4 HRs, 43/48

Losing Teixeira highlights another issue, one that goes back to the question of what the Angels actually do that's distinctive. For 2009, the once-touted farm system doesn't have the impact bat to replace Teixeira or a pitcher who will make all the difference in the rotation, meaning there isn't that much in the way of in-house reinforcements to secure the Angels' current roost atop the division.

What do the Angels do that's "distinctive"? They go to the playoffs every year while continuing to break in new talent from the "once-touted farm system" that certain stat-munchers love to sneer at. This year Kendry Morales and Kevin Jepsen broke fully into a largely home-grown crew that includes a catching tandem that hit 24 home runs, a second baseman who hit .295 with pop, a shortstop who earned a Gold Glove while hitting above .300, four starting pitchers who went 50-31, and more. Next year we've got Brandon Wood, and this year we were able to flip yet another shortstop, Sean Rodriguez, for one of the best starting pitchers in the American League over the past five years.

Coming to a sports page near you, you can expect to find a certain number of prepackaged stories about how an Angels team, suddenly struggling in the standings, misses that late-game mojo because the team somehow doesn't like the cut of free-agent import Brian Fuentes' jib.

Yeah, didn't happen.

Since they failed to win the bidding on the one impact bat at a position where the team has a crying need, we're left asking whether the Angels are willing to settle for being the little engine that could but hasn't and doesn't, not on the bases, not in October, and not in their off-season shopping.

I dunno, Bobby Abreu and Juan Rivera worked out okay, and that "crying need" is laughing all the way to the playoffs.

Some individual player comments are worth noting, too. For instance, Chone Figgins:

As an everyday third baseman who stopped hitting balls into the gaps...he's become something less than an asset....they'd be best served by returning him to the superutility role.

Or not! How about Torii Hunter?

The Angels overpaid according to a career year, and they'll get to keep overpaying....Hunter is a good hitter and a wonderful defender and has clubhouse worth that we can't measure--but that doesn't excuse the Angels for signing a bad contract.

A contract, it might be noted, that has given the Angels two straight 20-Win Share seasons in CF for the first time since Albie Pearson. And we've had some decent center fielders over the years.

Yes, predictions are a notoriously unforgiving business, and B-Pro doubtlessly does it 100 times better than I ever could. (And certainly nobody outside of Acuda ever imagined Kendry Morales would have 75+ extra base hits.) But as the "bad offensive ballclub," "once-touted farm system," "history's weakest 100-win team" and Lucky McLuck-Luck cracks suggest, there is both a lack of comprehension and a lack of basic respect for the Angels' brand of winning consistently. Just like Bob Dylan warned against, they continue to criticize what they can't understand; and what they can't understand continues to blow right through their projections.

Still, if we lose to the Red Sox again, we get what we deserve....

21 out 21 ESPNers Agreed: Angels Won't Make Series

mattwelch — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 19:20:49 -0000

Was looking at ESPN.com's preseason baseball picks, to see toward whom I can soon direct my gloating (answer: only 3 of 21 pickers didn't have the Angels winning the AL West, but among them were perennial Scioscia-underraters Keith Law and Rob Neyer) ... and along the way I noticed something remarkable: All 21 prognosticators had an AL East team winning the American League pennant. Check it out.

Now, before you start damning them all with Bristol-coast bias, note that A) it's certainly not a bad bet, B) the Rays got a lot of votes, and C) among those getting votes for potential "breakout" season, at or near the top of the list was Howie Kendrick. Still, 21 for 21.... I have a strong feeling that no one will be giving us a chance in the playoffs this year, including members of the Red Sox. Within that may lie some underdoggy hope....

That Great Sucking Sound on Offense

mattwelch — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 18:47:10 -0000

It's reverse jinx time! Here's how bad everyone's been sucking on offense, and for how long:

GMJ, since May 23
.227/.333/.343
Rivera, since Aug. 4
.236/.286/.376
Abreu, since Aug. 8
.222/.333/.340
Napoli, since Aug. 23
.107/.180/.196
Torii, since Aug. 27
.250/.298/.393
Kendry, since Sept. 1
.230/.280/.333
Vlad, since Sept. 2
.270/.316/.392
Maicer, since Sept. 2
.263/.328/.351
Figgy, since Sept. 5
.250/.360/.368
Mathis, since Sept. 5
.188/.188/.219
Aybar, since Sept. 17
.214/.267/.286
Howie, since Sept. 21 (the day after he cracked .300)
.091/.167/.182

Note: This is, of course, designed to make everyone look as bad as possible; in fact, Howie's been hotter than hot until just a few days ago, and GMJ has been swinging a good bat lately, etc. Also, offense tends to peak in the hot summer months. But STILL.

ANGELS: .549 Winning % for 6 Straight Years

mattwelch — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 02:05:55 -0000

OK, so, the other day I pointed out that the Angels, with their 89th win this year, became 1 of only 8 franchises in ML history to chalk up 89 wins in 6 consecutive seasons. As commenters rightly pointed out, this wasn't exactly a fair fight for those quality teams who played less than 162 games in a season (everyone before '61, and then also '72, '81, '94, and '95). So, I decided to take our baseline winning percentage, and see how many teams since 1901 have, like the Angels, strung together at least 6 consecutive seasons with a .549 or higher record.

Here are the results of that search, in order of length of streak. For flavor, I put in parenthesis the names of everyone who played for that franchise throughout the duration of the streak. And, on the occasions that the same manager was at the helm all the way through, I indicated that after a colon. Here goes:

Yankees 1926-1943

Yankees 1946-1958 (Yogi Berra)

Pirates 1901-1912 (Honus Wagner, Tommy Leach: Fred Clarke)

Cardinals 1939-1949 (Enos Slaughter, Max Lanier)
Cubs 1903-1913 (Johnny Evers)

Braves 1991-2000 (Tom Glavine, John Smoltz: Bobby Cox)
Giants 1916-1925 (George Kelly: John McGraw)

Yankees 2001-2009 (Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada)
Indians 1948-1956 (Bob Lemon, Bob Feller, Al Rosen, Dale Mitchell, Jim Hegan)
Pirates 1921-1929 (Pie Traynor)

Braves 1953-1960 (Eddie Mathews, Warren Spahn, Joe Adcock, Lew Burdette, Del Crandall, Johnny Logan, Bill Bruton, Bob Buhl, Joey Jay, Mel Roach)
Dodgers 1949-1956 (Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella, Duke Snider, Pee Wee Reese, Gil Hodges, Carl Furillo, Don Newcombe, Carl Erskine, Ralph Branca)
A's 1925-1932 (Lefty Grove, Jimmie Foxx, Al Simmons, Mickey Cochrane, Max Bishop, Jimmie Dykes, Eddie Rommel, Rube Walberg: Connie Mack)

Orioles 1977-1983 (Eddie Murray, Jim Palmer, Ken Singleton, Mike Flanagan, Dennis Martinez, Scott McGregor, Al Bumbry, Rich Dauer, Tippy Martinez, Rick Dempsey)
Cubs 1932-1938 (Gabby Hartnett, Billy Herman, Stan Hack, Frank Demaree, Billy Jurges, Charley Root)

Angels 2004-2009 (Guerrero, Lackey, Figgins, Shields, Quinlan: Mike Scioscia)
Yankees 1994-1999 (Bernie Williams, Paul O'Neill)
Yankees 1976-1981 (Willie Randolph, Graig Nettles, Ron Guidry, Lou Piniella)
A's 1970-1975 (Reggie Jackson, Rollie Fingers, Sal Bando, Vida Blue, Bert Campaneris, Joe Rudi, Gene Tenace, Blue Moon Odom)
Giants 1933-1938 (Mel Ott, Carl Hubbell, Hal Schumacher, Jo-Jo Moore, Gus Mancuso, Harry Danning, Blondy Ryan, Sam Leslie: Bill Terry)
Yankees 1919-1924 (Wally Pipp, Bob Shawkey, Fred Hofmann: Miller Huggins)
A's 1909-1914 (Eddie Collins, Frank Baker, Eddie Plank, Chief Bender, Harry Davis, Jack Barry, Stuffy McInnis, Jack Coombs, Amos Strunk, Rube Oldring, Ira Thomas, Jack Lapp: Connie Mack)
Giants 1908-1913 (Christy Mathewson, Larry Doyle, Rube Marquard, Buck Herzog, Fred Merkle, Hooks Wiltse, Doc Crandall, Red Ames, Josh Devore, Art Wilson: John McGraw)

OK, so now we're 1 of 22, not 1 of 8.

Still, note who remains not on this list...

The Big Red Machine
Ty Cobb's Tigers
George Brett's Royals
Mike Schmidt's Phillies
anybody's goddamned Red Sox
Billy Beane
Tommy Lasorda
Tony LaRussa
the repeat-champ Blue Jays
the coke-whore Mets
Killebrew's and Puckett's Twins
the Clemente/Stargell Pirates
the Mays/Marichal/McCovey/Cepeda Giants

...and on and on. We are in phenomenal company, ladies and gents, even if we're at the very bottom of this particular barrel (at least until next year).

Note, too, that each and every one of these dynasties featured a Hall of Fame player who lasted the entire run, with the exception of the 1919-24 Yankees, the 1976-81 Yankees (so far, anyway), and the 1994-99 Yankees (ditto). Remember that next time someone tries to tell you the HoF has a pro-Yankee bias. Our HoFer, obviously, will be Vlad.

Finally, every one of those teams won at least 1 World Series, with the exception of the 1932-38 Cubs (who lost 3), the 1908-13 Giants (ibid), the modern day Yankees...and our Angels. The law of averages is on our side, or something!

And just to twist the knife into less-lucky fans, here are the last seasons in which various franchises have even made it to .549:

2008: Cubs, Mets, Rays, Brewers
2007: Indians, D-Backs
2006: White Sox, Tigers, Twins, A's
2005: Braves, Astros
2004: Rangers, Giants
2003: Mariners, Marlins
1999: Reds
1998: Padres
1997: Orioles
1994: Royals, Nats/Expos
1993: Blue Jays
1992: Pirates

Good times, etc.

Angels Reach 89 Wins 6 Straight Years

mattwelch — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 03:28:50 -0000

With yesterday's victory in Texas the Angels reached the 89-win mark for the 6th consecutive year. This, despite being picked to win about 84 each year by the PECOTAs of the world.

Anyhoo, how rare is that? Consider this -- only 8 other franchises have ever done it in baseball HISTORY. Here's a list, ordered by most recent to least:

Yankees 2009
Braves 2000
Athletics 1975
Dodgers 1956
Indians 1955
Cardinals 1947
Giants 1913
Cubs 1912

You're talking about some of the most celebrated teams in baseball history here. Charlie Finley's mustache gang, the Boys of Summer, Musial's Cardinals, McGraw's Giants, Tinkers-to-Evers-to-Chance. More importantly, note who's NOT there -- the Big Red Machine never won 89 for 6 straight. The Pirates have won a ton over the years (at least until they let Barry Bonds go), but 89 wins in 6 consecutive? Nope. The Tigers had an all-Hall-of-Fame outfield, the Orioles had Earl Weaver, the Blue Jays had a very good 12 years or so, and I've heard a certain broadcast network talk about a team from Massachussetts ... nope.

So tip your cap to Mike freaking Scioscia, and Arte, and Vladimir Guerrero, and Chone Figgins, and John Lackey, and the rest of 'em. And for those of you who are, say, 25 or younger ... man, do you people have it good.

UPDATE: See a more detailed/accurate list here.

SB Nation User Blog: mattwelch

Think About Brandon Wood When You Watch the Phillies

Wood will be better than....

MLB Selling "Yankees 2009 American League Champs" Gear!

MLB Selling "Yankees 2009 American League Champs" Gear!

Figgy's 4-Game Brutality Streak(s)

Figgy from here on out

teh suck

teh meh

panther

Classy Vlad quote about Adenhart

Classy Vlad quote about Adenhart

Torii on Hendu's first pitch: "That was terrible"

Torii on Hendu's first pitch: "That was terrible"

Haw Haw, Baseball Prospectus!

21 out 21 ESPNers Agreed: Angels Won't Make Series

That Great Sucking Sound on Offense

ANGELS: .549 Winning % for 6 Straight Years

Angels Reach 89 Wins 6 Straight Years