SB Nation User Blog: maurerdj

What's the best baseball sim out there?

maurerdj — Mon, 21 Jan 2008 16:36:16 -0000

I'm looking for a stat heavy baseball sim. I have heard that Out of the Park Baseball and Baseball mogul are both good choices. The most important element to me is that it is user-friendly. Just wondering what people of this board have played and what you guys think is the bets one out there.

Oh yeah, and I don't care what the online options there are. I plan on playing offline.

Analysis of the Brewers signing of Cameron

maurerdj — Sat, 12 Jan 2008 18:41:44 -0000

I know this is Cards page, but the Brew Crew is in the Central and I love baseball analysis. The Brewers signed Cameron to a 1yr deal worth 5.5 million (including signing bonus) with an option. I believe this is one of the better signings of the offseason in terms of cost efficiency. As a result Hall will be moved from CF to 3B, Braun from 3B to LF and Cameron will play CF.

Defensive Benefit
2007 FAA (Fielding runs above replacement, adjusted for position) by position for Brewers
3B: -19
CF: -20
LF: 2
Total: -30

In 84 games as a 3B, Hall has a RAA of 0, inducting he's a league average 3B. Last year Cameron had an RAA of -1 in CF, indicating he's a league average CF. Braun was a horrible defender at 3B, but it was mostly due to his glove. He has a above average arm and above average speed. I have read some scouts say he could be a league average OF, but for the sake of argument we'll give him a -10.

2008 (projected)
3B: 0
CF: 0
LF: -10
Total: -10 (2 wins gained)

Offensive analysis
Hall had a down year last year and likely to rebound this year. Its unlikely Braun can support a .367 BABIP, so he will regress. For the sake of simplicity, let's assume Hall's rebound and Braun's regression offset one another. Essentially you are replacing Cameron with a Jenkins/Mench platoon.

Jenkins(15) and Mench(7) combined to obtain at BRAR of 22, but this overvalues them somewhat as Mench played 33 game in RF and 51 games in LF, so let's take from the total of BRAR for the platoon making it 19. Cameron had a BRAR of of 28 in a extreme pitcher's park. I believe that Cameron's bat alone will account for about 2 more wins than the platoon of Jenkins/Mench.

Overall, it looks like the Brewers will gain 4 wins from the Cameron signing. Basically one win per million spent. But this is just comparing the singing to last year's stats. A whole year of Braun in 3B could cost the Brewers -40 FAA making the total projected wins gained 6. The Cameron signing has an excellent signing by the Brewers in that it is a low cost, 1 year deal and allows them to gain wins defensively by placing players in positions where they can cause the least damage.

Nice BP article on how the Cards farm system has changed in the last 3 years

maurerdj — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 02:43:45 -0000

A subscription is needed. but here' the link

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7001

Basically it says the Cards have made great strides in improving their farm system in the last 3 years. Beginning of 2005, it was ranked dead last, but now its middle of the pack. They give a lot of kudos to both Moze and Lunhow helping change the organization's philosophy, overall a very good article.

Cards get Brian Barton in the Rule 5 draft

maurerdj — Thu, 06 Dec 2007 17:41:07 -0000

Something went right for a change. Here's a link to his minor league states http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Brian-Barton-3.shtml.

I believe he will be a good upgrade over Schumaker and Taguchi. His OBP skills might make him a decent leadoff man. His defense is good and he plays all 3 OF positions. I think he might fit in and perfrom very well here.

Reyes for Carlos Quentin

maurerdj — Sat, 29 Sep 2007 21:13:45 -0000

A good friend of mine lives in Arizona and says that Quentin is viewed much like Reyes is here. A guy with a lot of talent who's pretty much been a bust. My question is would you like to see Reyes traded for Quentin and give both guys a change of scenery?

Reyes - 25
Minors: 16-9, 3.23 ERA, 1.04 WHIP: 81 ERA+
MLB: 8-23, 5.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

Quentin - 25

MLB performance: .229/.316/.345: 84 OPS+
Minors: .313/.413/.527: .940 OPS (sorry couldn't find any equivalence stats)

Very similar track record; both were very good college players, had very good success in the minors, but have struggled at the MLB level. Quentin is pretty much out of a job with Brynes, Young, Upton all coming back. I think the D-backs may be willing to pull the trigger on such a trade, what do all of you think?