SBNation.com User Blog: mcflies

My Day on DraftExpress

mcflies — Thu, 23 May 2013 14:29:07 -0000

I took the day off of work to get some stuff done and be ready to get out of dodge for the weekend tomorrow, but instead I found myself watching draftexpress scouting reports on youtube. Being that I didn't want it to be a complete waste of my morning I've decided to post some impressions. As most if not all of you know the videos go over a players strengths and weaknesses making them look both like the best player on the planet and the worst all within 10 minutes.

So here are my thoughts on likely Pistons targets:

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: The first half, or I should just say the whole video, is comprised of him taking 3's. You'd come away thinking it is the only shot he took all year. You look at the stats and realize he took 8 threes a game, so that's not far off. He shoots 37% on 3's and 42% overall, but because he takes so many 3's, and 37% is actually an above average percentage, he has a phenomenal 59% TS%. His defense and anticipation are as good as advertised. He loves to dunk in transition, but he's pretty horrible around the rim in the half court. He should probably just stick to shooting 3's and playing defense and dunking on the break. Dude can't make a layup in this video to save his life. I have no idea how he shot 50% on 2-point shots. Must have all been dunks in transition.

Michael Carter-Williams: He can make all the passes! Over the top, lobs, behind his back, across the court, in mid-air doing somersaults while knotting up his laces. He can make all the steals! On the ball, off the ball, between his legs, standing on his head, you can't get a ball by this man. His defense is pretty good both on and off the ball. He can get into the lane with ease. And then reality hits. For all the amazing passes he makes he takes so many chances that you end up with a highlight of great plays and one of bad plays. He can get into the lane, but he can't do much once he gets there hitting only 42% of his 2-point shots. Also a 26% turnover rate, which is 3rd worst for prospects. 29% 3-point shooter. To say Carter-Williams can't shoot is an exaggeration.

C.J. McCollum: Honestly this is just one awesome highlight reel. I can see why Sawyer's likes him. He came into the combine with a 38.5" vertical and you can see it. He really rises up on his shots. He's about a foot or more off the ground when he releases. Pretty impressive. He can drive, lay it up, dunk, fadeaway, finger roll, floater, shoot the 3, get to the line, crossover, dribble, this man is the deadliest offensive weapon in the draft. Hands down. He's like a Curry, Iverson, Ellis all wrapped into one. He has Iverson/Ellis style with the crossover and quick step and ability to get into the lane like there's nobody in front of him, but he has Curry's ability to shoot. He's a machine. He IS NOT a PG. He cannot see open men. He's too geared toward scoring. And for all the agility he shows on offense it's like his feet are stuck in cement on defense. I'm not sure what he's even looking at because the ball handler will have already made one or two steps to get past him before he even turns his hips to make a move. It's like he's one step ahead on offense and one behind on defense.

Shabazz Muhammad: 26% of his offense came in transition. He loves to get out and run, and loves to throw it down even more. Definitely an above the rim type player, and when you consider his 6'11" wingspan and 37" vertical at the combine you can see why. The fact that so much offense came in transition on a Ben Howland half-court slow it down team is interesting. The NBA is more open and the tempo is higher in general. People suspect that Howland held him down and I can instantly see what they mean. He can score in the post and he's pretty exceptional taking contact and making the bucket. He can hit the 3. Like KCP he dunks in transition but not on drives. He settles for jumpers or contested layups on his drives and only drives left, as he is left handed. Doesn't pass much. Doesn't create turnovers. Doesn't look good at defense, but doesn't look as horrible as McCollum did. Take away the highlight reel dunks and he looks pretty average.

Anthony Bennett: He is a dunking machine. Shot 74% at the rim which was top 10 in all of college basketball. Obvious athleticism is obvious right away. Also like to get out and run. He's pretty skilled. Rises up on his shots and has good form. Face up post game that is kind of old school, which would be fun to watch. He pump fakes on the perimeter and then drives. Out of all the videos I've watched today Bennett's game looks like the most prototypical NBA game. He's solid at just about everything and even things NBA players don't practice much these days like facing up in the post or pump faking and has a great mid-range shot. He's 19 years old. Just thought I'd throw that out there. Doesn't seem to take contact too well though. Not great at scoring with his back to the basket. And then there's the whole height thing. If he was 1 or 2 inches taller he'd be going #1 overall and there wouldn't be a discussion to the contrary.

(Update) Cody Zeller: I caved and watched the video even though I've predisposed myself to be opposed to taking him. He's a 7 foot white guy that runs as fast as Lebron and jumps as high as a guard. I'm already impressed. More? He hedges really great on P/R's. He's got cat like quickness and can jump out quick halting any PG's path around him. His offensive game is a lot better with his back to the basket. Both he and Bennett look to have the most skilled offensive games of big men I've seen. Bennett's is more outside in and face up. Zeller can face up but he's not a mid-range shooter. He only attempted 24 jump shots the whole year. He's kind of a wuss though. Half the video is of him getting pushed around by Payne/Sims or McGary/Morgan pretty much the only legit front courts he played against all year and then there's that whole Syracuse debacle where every shot he took was blocked. He turns it over quite a bit when a dude bodies him up he loses control. He just gets way too many shots blocked. Whatever vertical he showed up with at the combine he doesn't look to have in games.

Ok so overall impressions: Pick your poison? I was impressed with all of them, but KCP, McCollum, and Bennett would be my top 3. I like KCP's willingness to jack it up from outside and play tough defense and rebound. That would really help stretch the floor on offense for our big men down low. McCollum just looks fantastic on offense. He can't play PG and trying to force that would just be a disaster, but he could be a more efficient Ellis/Iverson at SG, and a definite upgrade over Knight. I don't know what to say about Bennett. I love his game. It's so old school and he dunks it every chance he gets. There is no pussy-footing around when he's by the rim. I wish he was a little bit taller, but I don't have to wish that he was a baller. (update) I'm coming around on Zeller, but his agent is telling people he's a stretch 4 for some reason I'm not understanding. He would need to not be such a pansy though and I'm not sure how a team would go about fixing that.

I can't decide.

So here are my thoughts on likely Pistons targets:

I can't decide.

Chad Ford's NBA mock draft 2.0: Shabazz Muhammad to Pistons

mcflies — Thu, 09 May 2013 13:17:33 -0000

1. Orlando Magic - Nerlens Noel

2. Charlotte Bobcats - Ben McLemore

3. Cleveland Cavaliers - Otto Porter

4. Phoenix Suns - Victor Oladipo

5. New Orleans Pelicans - Trey Burke

6. Sacramento Kings - Anthony Bennett

7. Detroit Pistons - Shabazz Muhammad

Analysis: The Pistons have had a bit of luck the past few years in the lottery. Every year a player who is ranked very high at the start of the season seems to slide to them later in the draft and somehow fits a perfect need. First it was Greg Monroe in 2010. Brandon Knight slid in 2011. Last year it was Andre Drummond. At times, all three were ranked in the top five with Monroe and Drummond going as high as No. 2. Could it happen again this year with Muhammad? The Pistons clearly have a need for a shooter, and before the season began, many scouts had Muhammad as a top-three pick. He didn't look like one at UCLA, but draft prospects rarely shine in Ben Howland's system.

8. Washington Wizards - Alex Len

9. Minnesota Timverwolves - C.J. McCollum

10. Portland Trailblazers - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

11. Philadelphia 76ers - Cody Zeller

12. Oklahoma City Thunder - Gorgui Dieng

13. Dallas Mavericks - Dario Saric

14. Utah Jazz - Kelly Olynyk

Joy...

1. Orlando Magic - Nerlens Noel

2. Charlotte Bobcats - Ben McLemore

3. Cleveland Cavaliers - Otto Porter

4. Phoenix Suns - Victor Oladipo

5. New Orleans Pelicans - Trey Burke

6. Sacramento Kings - Anthony Bennett

7. Detroit Pistons - Shabazz Muhammad

Analysis: The Pistons have had a bit of luck the past few years in the lottery. Every year a player who is ranked very high at the start of the season seems to slide to them later in the draft and somehow fits a perfect need. First it was Greg Monroe in 2010. Brandon Knight slid in 2011. Last year it was Andre Drummond. At times, all three were ranked in the top five with Monroe and Drummond going as high as No. 2. Could it happen again this year with Muhammad? The Pistons clearly have a need for a shooter, and before the season began, many scouts had Muhammad as a top-three pick. He didn't look like one at UCLA, but draft prospects rarely shine in Ben Howland's system.

8. Washington Wizards - Alex Len

9. Minnesota Timverwolves - C.J. McCollum

10. Portland Trailblazers - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

11. Philadelphia 76ers - Cody Zeller

12. Oklahoma City Thunder - Gorgui Dieng

13. Dallas Mavericks - Dario Saric

14. Utah Jazz - Kelly Olynyk

Joy...

Pimpin' SBNation

mcflies — Thu, 07 Mar 2013 18:02:07 -0000

Pimpin' SBNation

I know this article is a headline SBNation thing, but it's just so damn good that I have to leave it in the fanshots for those that don't get on here to see it while it's front and center.

SVG might have the best quote in it.

If you haven't read it...just read it.

Age vs. Experience (redux)

mcflies — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 15:29:04 -0000

This little ditty is based off a previous post in which XstreamINsanity asked How much does average team age and average team experience mean? I took to the comments to explain what I thought would be a proper way to evaluate this question. I'm bored, so here it is:

I took the top 10 players in minutes played for each team being that this would eliminate bench scrubs that don't really contribute to wins yet could play a big role in the average age of a team. I then averaged the ages and experience of each team. All data was taken from the 2011-12 season, but the data isn't that important. Instead, here's a few fun graphs!

Graph 1: Wins vs Age

Graph 2: Wins vs Experience

What are you looking at you might ask? Those are linear regressions showing the relationship both age and experience have on wins. They both look similar right? That's because age and experience are essentially the same thing. However, a numerical regression shows that age accounts for 21% of team wins whereas experience accounts for only 16.9% of team wins. In either case neither age nor experience is all that significant, but it does tell you something - that age is a slightly bigger factor.

In reality the above graphs would probably be bell curves, but because rosters are constantly being overturned (out with the old, in with the new) it's rare that an NBA team actually reaches the steep decline on the opposite side of the bell curve.

And here's a 3rd fun graph!

Graph 3. Wins vs Age Matrix

What does this graph show? The horizontal line is set to 33, or .500 ball over 66 games. The vertical line is set to 27, the average age of an NBA roster.

Anything interesting? If you look to the right of the vertical line you see 11 dots representing 11 teams in the NBA with rosters above the average age. Of those 11 teams only 3 teams won 33 or fewer games last season. 8 of those 11 teams made the playoffs.

The three dots furthest to the right? Those are the Mavs (oldest), Lakers (2nd), and Celtics (3rd). The Mavs average age last season was 31.3 years old making them by far the oldest team in the NBA.

The three dots furthest to the left? Those are the Wiz (youngest), Sixers (2nd), and Wolves (3rd).

Where are the Pistons? They are the team closest to the average age line sitting with a below average win total. Their average age suggested a team that should have been peaking. Every other team older than them had more wins. The team high above them also close to the average age line is the Chicago Bulls.

Conclusions:

Age matters more than experience. It's fun to look at graphs. Age doesn't matter that much, but it's interesting that most old teams aren't bad. Things like productivity, or even altitude (yes, that thing that relates to sea level, not to be confused with attitude), matter more than an NBA team's average age.

Graph 1: Wins vs Age

Graph 2: Wins vs Experience

And here's a 3rd fun graph!

Graph 3. Wins vs Age Matrix

What does this graph show? The horizontal line is set to 33, or .500 ball over 66 games. The vertical line is set to 27, the average age of an NBA roster.

The three dots furthest to the right? Those are the Mavs (oldest), Lakers (2nd), and Celtics (3rd). The Mavs average age last season was 31.3 years old making them by far the oldest team in the NBA.

The three dots furthest to the left? Those are the Wiz (youngest), Sixers (2nd), and Wolves (3rd).

Conclusions:

5 Questions with Greg Monroe

mcflies — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 04:56:11 -0000

5 Questions with Greg Monroe

Apparently the Celtics TrueHoop guy got close to a Moose prior to the game.

Dumars wants to participate in Denver three-way

mcflies — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 17:24:01 -0000

Dumars wants to participate in Denver three-way

Bullet point in the blog while describing the pistons:

"Sources say the Pistons are expected to make their interest known in participating in the Carmelo Anthony talks as a third team, with Prince satisfying part of what Denver is looking for as a wing player on an expiring deal."

CBSsports.com