It's early in the new year,  the season for top prospect lists as we wait for pitchers and catchers to report. Tony Lastoria has started his top 50, and while I certainly appreciate his going that deep, I'll limit mine to a more manageable top 30. I think this is a FanPost and not a Shot. Here it is:

Top 30

1 - Alex White  (best starting pitcher prospect, great first year)
2 - Lonnie Chisenhall (on track for 2012)
3 - Jason Kipnis ("I'm lovin second base!")
4 - Drew Pomeranz (pretty much where White was last year)
5 - Jason Knapp (highest ceiling starting pitcher, needs innings to prove it)
6 - Nick Weglarz (perennial)
7 - Joe Gardner (Masterson who gets lefties out)
8 - Levon Washington (pure potential, did great in limited AB's)
9 - Chun-Hsiu Chen (breakout year at catcher)
10 - Giovanny Urshela (great glove, carried the MV team at 18)

11 - Nick Hagadone (wanna put him lower, destined for the pen)
12 - Tony Wolters (consensus great pick and surprise sign)
13 - Scott Barnes (best lefty starter)
14 - Giovanni Soto (great numbers, good trade)
15 - Matt Packer (the biggest surprise, 2cnd in era in all minors)
16 - TJ House (still solid and a level ahead of his age)
17 - Hector Rondon (injured/recovering former top tens coming up)
18 - Kelvin de la Cruz (natch)
19 - Alexander Perez (my fave)
20 - Bryce Stowell (highest ceiling reliever)

21 - Felix Sterling (biggest reach on the list, but 17 yrs old)
22 - Rob Bryson (biggest payoff for CC?)
23 - Austin Adams (true sleeper, great arm)
24 - Corey Burns (Doug Jones anyone? chk his #'s)
25 - Josh Judy (pass for last year, getting his nasty back)
26 - Vinnie Pestano (again, #'s. Good MLB short stint)
27 - Zach Putnam (like Judy, nasty when healthy)
28 - Paulo Espino (he keeps performing in every role)
29 - Jared Goedert (yeah, well. AAA home runs count)
30 - Jess Todd (Chris Perez Lite)

Back end of the list is heavy on relievers, which is perhaps the biggest mlb depth in the system, but hey, they don't even sit in the dugout. Left off Kyle Blair, #4 pick last year who many scouts rated highly, but I haven't seen or read anything about him after the draft.

I know a lot of Top 10 lists have been published, linked to and discussed here, and most observers give high marks for the current state of the tribe farm system for its depth of legit ML prospects. I put together my own "top 30" to get a read on that depth, and I thought I might as well post it here during the lull before ST.

I spent some time on it, weighing the usual considerations of ceiling, maturity of skills, age and level. I also weighed injury history, so that a player like Kelvin de la Cruz shows up a little lower than you might expect given an added uncertainty of return to form.

I think the "plus depth" rating shows - you can go over 20 deep on the list and have players that project to at least make it to the show at some point. I don't think we've ever had that kind of depth, and regardless of the number of blue chip prospects therein and what trades were made to supplement it, the current snapshot of the farm comes close to matching the vision Shap initially laid out. Of course, it remains to be seen if it provides the raw material to realize the primary goal - consistently competitive ML clubs (ours, hopefully!).

FYI, Tony Lastoria is doing his top 50 on his blog, and just hit #30 (Bryan Price, who didn't make the cut on mine). I recommend following it, since his scouting reports are more detailed than they've been previously (presumably from his expanding contact list of scouts and coaches both within and outside the Tribe system). He also posts video that usually has a slo-mo element that is kinda cool to watch, especially for pitchers.

So, my Top 30:

1- Carlos Santana

2 - Lonnie Chisenhall

3 - Hector Rondon

4 - Alex White

5 - Michael Brantley

6 - Carlos Carrasco

7 - Nick Hagadone

8 - Jason Knapp

9 -Alex Perez

10 - TJ House

11 - Nick Weglarz

12 - Lou Marson

13 - Abner Abreu

14 - Jeanmar Gomez

15 - Jess Todd

16 - Carlos Rivero

17 - Scott Barnes

18 - Kelvin De La Cruz

19 - Josh Judy

20 - Jason Donald

21 - Zach Putnam

22 - Jason Kipnis

23 - Eric Berger

24 - Jordan Brown

25 - Beau Mills

26 - CC Lee

27 - Frank Herrmann

28 - Wes Hodges

29 - Paulo Espino

30 - Delvi Cid

Entering the holidays and hot stove doldrums, I figured this deserved a diary thread, seeing as how its likely the roster will not undergo much upheaval going into spring training.

Assuming the roster stays pat, to me one of the biggest questions for next year is what role Andy Marte plays. He was our starting 3B at the beginning of last year, and even though his avg sucked, he handled himself pretty well at the hot corner throughout the cold weather and his ISO was decent. If he hadn't pulled a hammy, he probably would have made it into the warm weather as our 3B and gotten the sustained ML at bats most have figured he needs to give some indication of what kind of player he'll be.

A year later and much is the same - nobody knows. With the crucial distinction that he's out of options. Assuming health and a decent spring training, is he our starter at third once again? A backup at third and first? DFA? Minor part of a trade package? A very unusual range of options for someone who was an uber-prospect 2 years ago, and caused ShapCo to go through a very extended and public trade negotiation to acquire him as the third baseman of the future.

I'm of the opinion that he more than others needs consistent playing time to show anything, but given last season and the pressure to win in '08, it's hard to see him handed the starting job. Which means he's in a tough spot. And there are only 25.

Any thoughts?

Apparently he started on the mound for the Surprise Rafters today and was removed in the first inning with a "hand/wrist injury", after giving up 3 runs in the first, recording 1 out.

No mention in the game log of getting hit by a batted ball or anything. No other news yet, and there may not be much reported on this right away, we'll see.

Worthwhile to note that his first stint on the DL this summer was for a finger tendon, not the elbow.

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l119&t=g_log&gid=2007_11_15_pddwin_surwin_1

Aaron Laffey was removed after 2.2 innings and specific # of pitches in the first game of a Buffalo doubleheader today.

The Buffalo announcers said that they got the word he was heading to Cleveland. I didn't get many details, not sure if they knew much, but the impression I got was that he was being brought up to make a spot start sometime during the next week.

Could be a showcase for a trade, or a trade already completed, could be just to rest someone, I don't know - but the Buffalo/Cleveland shuttle is going into high gear as the brass looks to improve the team one way or the other.

Thought it was time to once again highlight a player or two on the farm that may be below the radar a bit. I was going to focus on Aaron Laffey, but he is starting to get his own press, as evidenced by the Sowers comp in a diary below. I would think he has moved up to the #3 position for Tribe pitching prospects behind Miller and Lofgren, and not only looks to provide starting depth for the parent club as early as next year, but also has become a prime trade chip for any deals in the meantime.

Another guy I wanted to look at is Nick Weglarz, who was drafted as a 17 yr old out of Canada in the 3rd round of the 2005 draft. Considering young Nick's size (6-3, 215) and raw power, this was a relatively rare "high-risk, high reward" type pick for Mirabelli. A wrist injury kept him out of the mix in '06, so Weglarz came into '07 with only a handful of pro at bats and was a surprise selection for the full season Lake County roster. At 19, he is still pretty young for the league.

However, big Nick has shown an uncanny ability to draw walks from the getgo, and now that he has started to hit with some regularity he is putting up Pronk-esque type numbers. He is showing the power and K's you might expect, but is also leading the entire league in walks, which is a great sign for his future development. He also seems to be getting the hang of playing the OF, so we can now officially say we have a power hitting corner OF prospect. Its just that he's still a teenager. Anyhow, Weglarz is currently tearing the cover off the ball in his first extended hot streak as a pro, and I think we'll see him on a top 10 list or two this offseason.

Stats and news links:

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Nicholas%2520Weglarz&pos=&sid=milb &t=p_pbp&pid=475676

http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=18516883&BRD=1698&PAG=461&dept_id=21848&rf i=6

Speaking of youth, the GCL Indians have assembled a very young but talented group of starters in FL that look to generate a lot of competition amongst themselves while they put a hurting on the opposition. Kelvin de la Cruz, Ryan Morris, Chris Archer, Gregorio Rosario (from the JD trade) and Santo Frias have all started the season well and bear watching over the summer. The team also has 17 yr old Jason Smit playing middle infield , and he also looks like he's making a good transition to pro ball.

Last note: As expected, Beau Mills was promoted to LC to take over 1B for Matt Whitney, who is promoted to Kinston.

Was asked to re-post this on its own, a nice article on Asdrubal:

Corrected link here. [Jay]

And here's his current player stats.

Might as well expand into general ob's...

A-Cab has probably had the best '07 season of any Tribe prospect so far. He has performed almost exactly as you would wish a future ML shortstop: he has fielded his position with consistency and flair, he has shown good instincts and awareness as "captain of the defense", he has been an ideal #2 hitter, has gotten on base well and stolen bases efficiently, and he has shown a little pop to boot. Not to mention he's 21 yrs old at AA.

Sound familiar? Yes, its eerily like Omar, except that Cabrera is showing offensive capabilities at a far younger age. Where does he go from here? Well, to Buffalo first, thus postponing a FO decision on what to do with him when he's ready to play with the big boys. Ideally, he gets his AAA time and becomes the Tribe's UT before any final decision is made. He is equally as proficient at 2B and certainly could handle 3B as well. With a year left in his development, and with Peralta, Barfield and Marte all still maturing, there are a lot of future scenarios in play.

Personally, assumimg A-Cab develops along the lines he's shown this year, I'd eventually want him at SS. But that's just me.

BTW, "Asdrubal" is one of those great latin names that retain the association to, well, latin times. I beleive it means "Ba'al helps". Or "Ba'al is an ass", one. Most famous Asdrubal: Hannibal's brother, who played 2B for the Carthaginian Berserkers before jumping on an elephant and sacking Rome.

Thought I'd do some caption shots of guys on the farm who haven't been talked about much:

Aaron Laffey, Buffalo - Another in a line of soft tossing lefties, Aaron started out the season in the Akron rotation and did well enough to get a promotion when injuries and callups thinned out the Bison starting 5. It was not advertised as a permanent deal, but it seems as if Laffey is going to stick, and he joins Adam Miller as the first HS draftees since 2001 (I think) to advance to the highest level of the Indian's farm system. Laffey has established a track record of being an extreme groundball pitcher (more so than Westy even) who relies on control to get guys out. When he's off he can get battered (sound familiar?) but when he's on he can be very effective, using his fastball to both sides of the plate and a good curveball to get guys out. While not a strikeout artist, he can get whiffs, as when he struck out 7 in 6 innings in his last start. When you consider that he is younger than David Huff and already experiencing some success two levels higher you'd have to say he's creeping up the prospect lists.

Jensen Lewis, Akron - Akron started the year with a bullpen dotted with former starters and a lot of questions. Lewis has answered those questions and now looks to have benefitted from the move and is set to get on the fast track as a late inning bullpen guy. Unlike Joe Ness, who never adjusted to coming out of the pen and is now back (doing well) in the rotation, Lewis took to it like mother's milk and since the end of April has logged 20 scoreless innings striking out 27, while giving up just 10 hits and 3 walks. Like Mastny, Mujica and Perez, Lewis looks to arrive in Cleveland much faster as a 1-2 inning reliever than as a starter slogging his way up the ladder.

Matt Whitney, Lake County - its not surprising he's hitting well at low-A. What is surprising is that for the first time in his career he dipped below the 20% line for K's per at bat. Last year at Kinston he struck out nearly a third of the time. If he can maintain the new K-ratio on his return to high-A, we may have something.

Draft update - the latest mock drafts still center on Cleveland drafting HS righty Blake Beaven, which would be fine with me. Beaven has as good a pedigree as a prep can have, with international and showcase experience, and the ceiling of a #1 starter. If he's taken, there will be equally enticing prep hurlers available in this year's pool, and the Tribe looks to jump in. Interestingly, the Boras effect is already kicking in, and some projections have Georgia Tech catcher Matt Weiters, the consensus top college bat, falling from the first 3 picks. It will be interesting to see what happens if he falls all the way to #13.

We're getting pretty close to the draft, and it will be an unusual one for the Tribe in that they have FA'd themselves out of their second, third and fourth round picks. The only reason they retained their first round pick is because the top 15 are protected. Hence, we still get a pretty good pick at #13.

Given that scenario, they will be effectively betting more on that sole high pick than in previous years, as they not be able to spread any risk around until later rounds. The trend in recent drafts for Mirabelli is to go safe anyhow, but I truly hope that's not the case this year, and the fact that Jason Davis was traded for a raw yet high-ceiling 18 yr old may be an indication that the brass have decided they have enough mid range talent thruout the system, and that the time has come to take a few bigger swings with younger talent.

This draft actually sets up pretty well for that, as the college ranks are pretty thin, while there is a good pool of high end prep prospects that should be available from picks 10-20. My initial reflex is to go with a big righthanded arm, which is well represented in the prep ranks. In fact, I believe the BA mock draft has us taking Blake Beaven, a big powerful righty who is their amateur player of the year for '06, but there are others who will likely be available as well, including Michael Main, Matt Harvey and Phillipe Aumont, who are all upper 90's studs.

However, the one guy I hope falls to us is Justin Heyward, a 6'4 OF from Georgia who has perhaps the highest ceiling in the draft for being a middle of the order run producer. He is known for a combo of huge raw power and patience at the plate, and is at least avg in all other tools. He's my pick at #13. If he's already taken, I'd go with one of the big prep righties.

Thoughts? Predictions?

I believe Fausto is the first Lake County Captain to make it to the majors. Tonite he threw for his old team against the Akron Aeros for his final tuneup before going "fer real" this weekend. He went 7 innings, 91 pitches, 1 hit (solo HR by Goleski), 2 BB's and 6 K's. Nice writeup by Stephanie Storm of the Beacon Journal:

http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/17022413.htm

I know its pretty meaningless, but that makes 13 innings and one hit for FC's last two appearances.

Also a good article by Sheldon Ocker on Jeremy "Clark Kent" Sowers:

http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/17022412.htm

And, for those with a paid online subscription to BA, there is a "Scout's View" article on Tribe teenage prospect Carlos Rivero. Best quote from the NL scout:

"He has every tool except (the) run (tool). He's not a plus runner--maybe a little bit below average, but power, bat ability, glove, hands, strength . . . hopefully he can stay at short, but if he can't . . . when I look at this kid, there is no way I could say, 'Nah, he could never be Miguel Cabrera.' I couldn't say that."