Bumped. There will be lot of reasonable disagreements re. the QB issue here on BN. Nothing wrong with that. Let's talk them out. I think what we saw from Richard Brehaut today was pretty encouraging. He certainly refuted the perception that he might have not been "ready" as a freshman. He looked as ready as Cade McNown or Drew Olson did as a true freshman. I think at this point both Prince and Brehaut should get equal shots to win the starting job by getting their chances to prove it on game days. Brehaut certainly won the duel today, IMHO earning PT for next Saturday. GO BRUINS. - N

I haven't had too much time to review any of the game film, but the in immediate aftermath of this game it's obvious the offense is holding this team back.  Specifically at quarterback and offensive line.  This shouldn't be news to anyone, but I would just like to emphasize it.  The defense is not the problem, not to say that it doesn't have its own issues.  Yet it cannot be primarily blamed whatsoever for this loss, nor the Stanford loss.  Two long rushes inflated the stats.  Of course they count, but they were bottled up and should have gone for nothing.  It was a result of poor tackling, not gaping holes, and tackling issues are easier to fix than an inability to fill running lanes.  One of the long runs was a result of Sheldon Price (who should not be playing) inexplicably losing contain.  More on him later.  Yes, there were too many missed tackles, but for some reason, there was only one offensive touchdown on a drive that started at the 50.  If Oregon can't complete a forward pass, I'll take giving up 200 yards rushing and one offensive touchdown.  Especially when half of those yards came on a true freshman losing contain, and one hell of a spin move at the one yard line.  It was a good defensive performance.  It certainly wasn't bad, but I look forward to debating with some who think otherwise.

This should be Brehaut's team.  Prince's performance today was ugly.  In his three games as the starter, he has shown little to place him over Brehaut considering the way Brehaut handled himself late in the game.  He made crisp, strong throws when he was given enough time.  It's also increasingly evident that this offensive line cannot handle the blitz, nor adequately pass protect against a 4 man rush.  Run blocking has been very good, but the line (running backs included) still cannot protect the quarterback.  Ramirez missed several pickups and Thigpen missed his fair share.  I can't recall any missed blocks from Franklin and Coleman, correct me if I'm wrong.  Yet time and again, the line could not hold its blocks, missed pass rushers altogether, and got our quarterbacks crushed in the process.  However, it is clear to me that Brehaut needs to continue to play.  What are we playing for right now?  A bowl game?  I think it has become increasingly clear that our chances of making a bowl are not decreased by having Brehaut behind center.  His interception was a little behind Embree but the ball was entirely catchable.  Our receivers should catch catchable balls, hence the term catchable.

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Bumped. We will get to how we deal with Prince's injury tomorrow am. Here is a hint we are not going to sit and around mope with "here we go, woe is us" nonsense. Meanwhile, some great points from mdjohns4 on last night's game that are worth highlighting. GO BRUINS. - N

I got a chance to watch the game again last night on DVR, and a couple of things became more clear as to how we pulled it out against the Vols.

1)  Tackling.  Especially from our secondary.  We just did not miss tackles yesterday, plain and simple.  The linebackers missed a couple, but were quickly swallowed up the secondary flying to the ball.  As well as Rahim Moore played, no one made as many key one on one tackles as ATV.  He was simply superb in coverage, but even better making plays in the backfield and wrapping up the legs of wide receivers and running backs in space.  Courtney Viney had himself a great game as well making tackles and providing blanket coverage on plays where Crompton wanted to go deep.  Regardless of Crompton's ability, the coverage downfield was good enough to keep him from even making an ill-advised throw.  A couple of plays come to mind, one resulting in a coverage sack by David Carter as Crompton tried to scramble after having enough time to make a throw downfield, the other a throwaway after play action.

2)  The defensive line was nasty.  Given the size of the Volunteer offensive line, our line simply did not look as overmatched as I thought they would, to say the least.  Brian Price was in the backfield all day.  On his sack he just beat the RG off the snap and swallowed up Crompton before he could go through his first read.  David Carter spent his day taking on blocks and ripping his way into the backfield.  Jerzy was effective eating up blocks and allowing our linebackers to fill the gaps.  The defensive ends played responsible assignment football by not losing containment and forcing plays back inside where big BP and Reggie Carter were waiting to make tackles.  Both Bosworths played inspired football, refusing to quit and finishing each other's tackles.  The defensive line played so well at times that the rush prevented a screen pass from developing, when getting the defensive line upfield behind the offensive line is precisely what is needed for an effective screen.  On that play Korey Bosworth rushed upfield saw the running back start to peel off and moved off of the tackle to body Hardesty up.

3)  Johnathan Franklin is our starting running back and deservedly so.  Several of his runs were responsible for getting the offense in a position to score.  If our downfield passing attack could have been at all effective against UT's secondary, we would be bringing out Kai to kick extra points instead of field goals.  But Franklin was easily the offensive MVP yesterday in my mind.  Without him, Kai doesn't have a chance to score points for us.  Jet Ski made some great cutbacks and had a great burst all day.  His vision and ability to cutback through open gaps really separated him from Coleman against UT.  The power running game was not effective against that speed and size.  Franklin was 17 for 80 yds (4.7/carry) and I'd argue more effective than Hardesty. More after the jump.

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I'm not sure how kosher this is since the content is under a subscription firewall, but according to Tracy Pierson at BRO Marvray was practicing with the scout team today.  This could be an indication of whether or not he will be redshirting given the depth we have at receiver.

Randall Carroll and Jerry Johnson got in the regular rotation, but again it's all subject to change based on performance.  FWIW, Thigpen was held off the scout team leading to the conclusion that this guy is going to get some playing time and will not redshirt.  Like a lot of folks around BN have already been saying, both he and Carroll are far too valuable in terms of big-play ability that will make it difficult to leave them out of the rotation.

Lastly, Pierson believes Tony Dye is close to being named the starter over Glenn Love given their respective performances this fall and that Dye has been playing with the first team defense lately.  Apparently the coaches have gotten more intense as practices are now closed to the public.  Good to see players and coaches getting serious as game week will be here soon enough.  That is all.

Just another reason everyone here should supplement their daily dose of Nestor with the fantastic content that Bruin Report Online provides via Pierson, Brandon Huffman, Greg Hicks, et. al.  Cancel the Times and replace it with BRO!!! (if you could even compare the two)

I know this couldn't be more off topic from Bruin athletics so I'll apologize ahead time if this is against BN protocol, but nonetheless this is great news for any American that I think is worthy of sharing with my favorite blog community.  The two Asian-American journalists, Laura Ling, who is a Bruin alum and Euna Lee, who were arrested for crossing the Chinese-North Korean border and sentenced to 12 years in a North Korean labor camp have been released and are coming home with a little help from a former President. 

Here's a link: via BBC News

GO BRUINS and WELCOME HOME!!!!

UPDATE (N): To underscore the point of this post, here is a flashback from the Daily Bruin in an article from June:

Earlier this month, UCLA alumna Laura Ling and fellow journalist Euna Lee were sentenced to 12 years of hard labor in a North Korean labor camp for illegal entry into North Korea.

Ling, 32, was working with Lee, 36, for Current TV, a cable television network co-founded by former Vice President Al Gore, at the time of her arrest on March 17 along the North Korean-Chinese border.

Ling’s detention raised concerns from the UCLA community, especially from professors in the communication studies department who were well acquainted with Ling throughout her undergraduate years at UCLA.

Once again to echo what mdjoh wrote: welcome home ladies. GO BRUINS. - N

Bumped. GO BRUINS. -N

A few weeks ago, N asked me to write downs some thoughts on the upcoming basketball season.  I thought I would have a post up soon after but when it came down to it, I really had no idea what to expect.  I have found it difficult to produce a "most likely outcome" based on a win-loss total mostly because a.) there's so much potential variance due to obvious reasons (youthful inexperience) and b.) I personally don't care about wins next season.  We'll get our fair share because the conference will truly be as bad as all the pundits will argue (so be prepared for that).

Disclaimer: Like N, I am operating on the assumption that Jrue is gone.  If he does come back, we'll be much better than what I will outline below.  Obviously.

But like most here on BN, I am going to be exicted about and anticipating significant development from our young guns.  However, how can we possibly predict the extent to which this will occur?  Drew Gordon could be one of the best rebounders in the Pac 10 with increased minutes, but will he be a consistent low post scoring threat?  Malcolm is already well on his way to being a lockdown defender, but can he develop into a reliable jump shooter?  How will Jerime handle most of the minutes at the point?  While we all saw evidence of his vision, passing skills, and athleticism, he struggled mightily at times and really didn't get enough time to be able to accurately project sophomore production.  Clearly all three of these guys will be good to great Pac 10 players eventually.  Will it be next year or the year after?  Hard to tell.

I'd be willing to bet we will see some improvement from DG but not enough for him to be a consistent low post scoring threat that he could very well become by his junior/senior years.  However, what we will almost certainly see is a better rebounding team as a result of getting more minutes for DG.  As much as we may have appreciated Aboya's tenacious desire, DG is an athletic, aggressive leaper with a good positioning instinct for the ball, thus a better rebounder in my opinion.  Also Keefe's rebounding cannot be overlooked.  A key to good team rebounding, as obvious as it sounds, is to have several good rebounders with proper size for the position.  Aboya was out of place at the five and really could have used some help on the weakside (the combination of Drago and Aboya at the 4 and 5 hurt us badly in terms of clearing the defensive glass and getting putbacks on the offensive end).

With the amount of talent coming in along with the potential improvement of last year's freshmen could mean less minutes for Drago by default.  Moreover, our rebounding deficiencies from last year are likely to be remedied due to DG's increased minutes along with Keefe.  I'd argue that a combination of two out of four of DG, JK, ND, JM will be more effective than ND, PAA, JK and DG were last year based on minute allocation (more for DG and JK, hopefully less for ND with JM getting 8-15 min/game).  This is a good thing.  Add our rebounding potential at the other positions and we could even be a good rebounding team next year. 

Furthermore, I really believe the development of Bobo will be the most important determinent to whether or not this team will be a threat to compete for a championship in the next few years, especially concerning a low post shot blocking presence.  Some of you may expect DG to fill this role, but he is more of a weakside shotblocker, not an intimidating body that will clog the lane and prevent penetrators from going into the lane in the first place.  DG's shotblocking is more of a last line of defense coming over from the weak side.  With no defensive three seconds rule, Bobo's defensive development is critical to the success of this time over the next few years.  We need an imposing shot blocking presence, and we need one badly (no offense to Aboya taking charges).  Player development next year will be critical to getting back to the Final Four (and ultimately a championship), which is why I am so ambivalent to wins and losses in particular, as they won't measure where we stand with regard to the year of development for Honeycutt, Moser, Stover, etc.  In two years this team will be scary good with prototypical size and athleticism at every position to defend and rebound, two things I'm pretty sure Howland gets results with.

As for Honeycutt next year, he could be effective just because he has a college-ready jumper and the size to get it off whenever he wants.  But will he be able to play well enough defensively to secure enough minutes for any of that to matter?  He is skinny to say the least.  All of this leads to a rather unpredictable scenario of whether or not TH will get significant minutes to contribute to even Holiday's level.  Nine points and six boards would be great.  He could potentially do more, but it might be more likely to expect less.

Moser will find the floor, but we can't expect him to produce much offensively.  A Malcolm-like freshman year showing his defensive potential would be nice.  Reeves Nelson could see minutes as a rebounding specialist, while Brendan Lane and Stover are likely to see the Bobo treatment. 

It's kind of funny how I've gone this far and have not mentioned much about the returning upperclassmen,  not that I don't appreaciate what they bring.  Realistically, Drago will be Drago (too slow on defense, capable rebounding, and 40 to 45 percent from three).  In my opinion, he is a player that should not be getting starters minutes.  If he plays over 20 minutes, we are committing ourselves to being at best an average defensive team as CBH's man-to-man demands intensity, focus, and quickness in recovery from every position.  He will never have all three of these qualities.  He is a detriment to the team defense no matter what position he plays whether it be the 3 or the 4.  Three point specialists that don't play defense haven't really been a Ben Howland staple in the starting rotation.  It was done out of necessity last year, and perhaps a bit too much.

In terms of overall offensive potential, I have a tough time predicting a point total.  Who is our go to guy?  Malcolm can penetrate, finish, and can shoot fairly well so he is a candidate.  I don't think we can expect JA to do any more next year than JH did for us last year it terms of scoring.  DG could get close to 10/game.  Drago should hover around that as well, unless his playing time is significantly reduced, since he really can shoot the ball.  Roll could be a pleasant surprise offensively as he has shown a diverse game over the past year where defenders would bite on his ball fakes and he would slide into the lane for a nice midrange pull up.  Keefe is Keefe.  Adequate shooter who will get some putbacks.  There's little to no chance he reaches a double digit scoring average.  I can't project anything for Bobo.  It all depends on how long he can stay in, but he has shown flashes of being a capable low post scoring threat.  Again, Honeycutt has the tools, but is he strong enough defensively to get enough time to use them?  If he can shoot like Drago he might have a chance to score in bunches.  His size and athleticism is a dream for our transition game as well, which could also improve from last year given JA's court vision along with ML keying transition buckets off of defensive pressure.  This team will be more athletic, quicker, and potentially more emotionally invested in the taking leadership roles now that minutes are there to be had.

Time for some predictions:

Given the apparent weakness in the Pac 10 I optimisitically see next year's team reaching 20 wins and a top 3 Pac 10 finish.  Washington and Cal will be the toughest teams, with USC capable of making a run, I guess.  Other than that, look at the conference and you will notice a huge dropoff in talent.  ASU, Arizona, Oregon, OSU, Stanford, and WSU just don't have the recruits (or for some, coaches for that matter).  18 conference games, 12 non conference plus the Pac 10 tourney and I think it might be hard to avoid reaching a 20 win season regardless of our inexperience.  We just won't be challenged enough.  The kicker however might be that our schedule will be so weak we could be a bubble team if 20 wins are all we can muster.  But again, wins and losses this year mean little to me, as the next few years could be the start of another epic run of Final Fours.  As long as Coach puts us in a position to compete for National Championships, the outcome will soon enough take care of itself.  And IIRC, he has a decent track record of player development.  His program is fast becoming a NBA pipeline, and that combination of talent and coaching will get us to where we want to be.

Thoughts? Comments? Suggestions?  If you're reading this you got through this rambling mess and I much appreciate it.  Time for football! GO BRUINS!!!!

Bumped. GO BRUINS. -N

I'm not sure if I'll be able to put up notes on Arizona State later this week since I'll be in Vegas betting my life on UCLA to put ASU in their place.   But here's my take on Zona and where our defensive problems will be, since I also think that's where the key to victory ultimately lies (a persistent theme here at BN).   In my opinion, Arizona has to score 70 to have a good chance of winning.  They allow 63 points per game against competition far less explosive than UCLA.  Our output against USC last Sunday was a result of the type of defense Arizona is often unwilling to muster and almost certainly incapable of repeating.  Also, Arizona is winless on the road.  Playing the Bruins at Pauley won't be easy.  However, Arizona is a team with obvious NBA talent.  Hill and Budinger will be a handful and appear to be complete mismatches relative to the Bruins' defensive strengths.  UCLA will have to find the hot hand (good time for Roll to get going again) and get a combination of high percentage shots.  There won't be many second chance points with Jordan Hill clearing the paint.

The biggest threat will be how Budinger and co. produce offensively.  As Rye noted in the comments on Nestor's last post, Josh Shipp should probably get duties on Budinger, but I see him getting guarded by committee (Jrue, Keefe, and Drago?).  Now I appreciate the job JH did on Derozan, but Budinger is a completely different player in my opinion.  He does not have Derozan's lateral quickness, but he sure as hell  can jump.  His back-to-the-basket game is far superior than Derozan's and can create his own shot in a way that could nullify JH's advantage in quickness.  Budinger doesn't have to dribble much to get it off since he can elevate so well and hit turnaround jump shots with regularity.  Shipp is far stronger than JH and can lean on Budinger in the post (where I think he will spend a fair amount of time) to force him out of a good shot.  Budinger might be able to get a better look off of the smaller, weaker Jrue.  However, this matchup will require multiple defensive looks and putting JH on Budinger will definitely be an option, especially if Arizona decides to spread out their attack.  Overall, there isn't one player that can guard him and it would take an NBA talent with similar size to completely take him out of the game (a la Luc last year).

This is where Hill could make a huge difference.  If our rotations are slow and they're getting open looks from three and open dunks on the weakside because of his presence down low, it could be a long night.  Even if Arizona is cold from outside, the Bruins' defensive rebounding hasn't been very good.  This is where Arizona scares me with Hil: offensive put backs and open looks.  Arizona's shooters, however limited, are at least going to be ready to shoot.  They know we double the post and they know Hill will get plenty of attention from sagging defenders in the lane.  Open looks to Budinger and Wise and Zona could put up 75+.  On the other side, our shots need to fall, because we might not get many second chances with Hill grabbing rebounds.  This is a tough one to call.  Jordan Hill is the best big man we'll face all year (unless we somehow get Oklahoma or Connecticut in the tourney) and Budinger doesn't have Luc on his jersey this year.  Both could score 20.  And that's tough to beat.  Collison will have to have a huge game (which I think he will) and our shots need to fall, because Arizona is going to score enough to at least give us scare.  Thank god they're not too deep and don't have nearly as many good shooters as the Bruins.  Howland's gameplan has our players prepared for Arizona's relative size and we get some turnovers.  Bruins win on defense... again.  GO BRUINS.

Bumped. GO BRUINS. -N

The first thing I want to discuss is the defense SC will throw at us.  I think its a guarantee we will we see man to man, traditional zone, and potentially one the gimmick zones (Box 1/Triangle 2) to slow down the Bruins.  However, I think we are going to see a majority of man to man from SC.  Here's why:

1.) The Bruins have shown to be a very good perimeter shooting team lately, and I think these last 8 games have been far more indicative of our capabilities than the first 6.  Collison has been efficient, Roll is playing out of his mind, Shipp has some confidence, Jerime can knock it down, as can Malcolm if healthy.  Jrue is a confusing player for me.  I'd almost prefer he pass up threes at this point just because the rest of the team has been so good.  This kind of output can put the traditional 2-3 zone to shame.  Even Drago had a good game against Oregon.  

The most important point to take away from this is that SC would really have to hope everyone is having an off shooting night for the zone to be successful.  And with so many capable shooters, its hard to imagine Collison and co. shooting below 33% from distance, which I believe is what SC will need to hold us to in order to win (if they play majority zone).  I don't think they can afford to let the Bruin shooters dictate the pace of the game, especially with Collison's ability to get to any spot he wants (often at the rim) no matter the defense.

2.) The gimmick zones will again be difficult to succeed against so many capable shooters.  If you man up 2 of our guards or wings, who do you leave open?  Jrue? Drago? Shipp? Roll? (ha)  There are just too many shooters who can knock it down any given day on this team to able to mess around with defenses that are meant to put the ball into lesser hands.  Collison would get a man for certain in a box 1 and triangle 2.  The other, if its Jrue, Shipp, Roll, Lee, or Anderson, will undoubtedly be a few hard dribbles and a kick out from getting an open shot for one of our shooters.  I believe any sort of zone defense really puts the pressure on SC to score all night.

3.)  However, the kicker will be the depth of SC.  There best bet to me seems to play man, especially with the athleticism and overall team size.  But they will struggle to play 8 deep.  They just don't have the depth at guard to be able to sustain pressure man to man and might have to, by default, play a fair amount of zone.  They're bigs may be manageable, but the guards are 6'4''/6'5''.  Derozan and Washington are also have great size for their position.  This is a game where I see Keefe struggling mightily, and Drago and Gordon needing to be at their best for this to be a comfortable win.  Overall, SC's starting five will present significant problems when they play us man to man.  Our best shot is taking full advantage of the zones we will see in order to force them to play man the entire game.  We should be at full strength down the stretch while SC could be struggling at that time.

4.)  On defense, staying out of foul trouble will be the most critical aspect.  If we get caught getting cheap fouls on the hedges, it'll be a trying game.  But SC will need the kind of output that Oregon had, which was a product of one outstanding offensive player and outrebounding the Bruins on the offensive glass, a byproduct of the foul trouble Aboya and Gordon got in (DG had 3 fouls in 8!!!!! minutes).  I have a tough time believing that this will happen again.  The game in Eugene was the type of game Oregon needed to have a chance to win, but our seniors and Collison's superior abilities were the difference.  This could be a dogfight, but one that the Bruins are better equipped and ready for.

USC can't match our depth, and would really need a poor offensive display from our Bruins to win.  I have supreme confidence in our boys but of course understand the nature of this game and the types of off nights college players can have.  It just seems so unlikely to do so in a game in this rivalry in the midst of a mini-tear.  Not to sound over confident, but we are too good to have a let down this early.  Darren, Josh, Jrue, Alfred and Roll are playing poised and smooth right now with the others fitting nicely into their roles.  If we do lose, I think it will mostly tells us how good SC is capable of being (look at the Oklahoma and Oregon games), but still lack the depth and consistent perimeter shooting of a top 15 team (one that is capable of beating UCLA while not playing their best basketball... like Texas). 

Comments? Clarifications? Questions?

GO BRUINS!