Fuentes has 2 losses and an ERA of like 7.  K-ROD has an ERA below 2 and is perfect in save opportunities.  Hypothetically the Angels would have a 12-11 record instead of a 10-13 record with K-Rod.

Furthermore, the Fuentes disease seems to have infected the entire bullpen.  Jose lost his dominance and Scot can't find the strike zone.

Someone commented that there's something wrong with the system.  If the system is flawed, how come Sanders and Weaver and the AAA starters don't seem to have contracted it?  When Santana and Lackey get back I think Palmer and Loux should go to the pen.

Someone else commented that Scioscia shouldn't use relievers.  That makes sense.  Let's just have Weaver and Saunders pitch every other day like Drysdale and Koufax.

K-ROD can listen to Kid Play and dance the funky chicken for all I care.  I don't care if Ocho Cinco was closing for us as long as the Angels the win.

AL West Division

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA	pythW-L%
SEA	17	4	.810	--	136	91	.676
OAK	11	9	.550	5.5	92	93	.495
ANA	6	14	.300	10.5	73	111	.317
TEX	5	14	.263	11.0	86	96	.450

 

According to the pythagorean expectation theory, this season ought to play out better than 2002 as  these are the current standings as of Saturday night.

AL West Division

Tm	W	L	W-L%	GB	RS	RA	pythW-L%
SEA	8	4	.667	--	53	37	.659
OAK	5	6	.455	2.5	47	49	.481
TEX	4	7	.364	3.5	74	76	.488
LAA	4	7	.364	3.5	47	59	.397

 

Rev probably hasn't even gotten up to check his mail.

"That was as flagrant as anything as I've seen in this game," said Scioscia, who was ejected in the top of second for continuing to argue from the bench.

"There were some things that happened on that field that were disturbing. The league has to look into it," he added.

"Some words were said that were just outrageous," said Hunter, who rapidly went from peacemaker to protester. "And it wasn't from the Red Sox. I freaking lost it."

Asked if those words were spoken by the umpires since there were only Angels, Red Sox and umpires on the field, Hunter balked.

"I didn't say that," he answered. "It might have been the voices in my head."

 

 

I'm looking for quotes of what was said and who said it?  Funny gets extra points!

 

This is the first post-season victory over the Red Sox since the 1986 playoffs and  Donnie Moore was one strike away from bringing the Angels to their first WS appearance. The nut has been cracked.

Watching the 3 RBI non-catch and HK seemingly wilt under the pressure, it looked like more of the same.  Freakish injuries, freakishly bad plays, freakishly bad calls. But HK recovered, breaking out of his slump by getting a couple of hits and executed a sac bunt to put Naps into scoring position. He made a critical play, key to winning the game. Naps of course put the team on his back and made sure the Angels weren't going down without a fight.  He even threw out a would be base stealer. When was the last time we saw that happen?

Other key performances of note, the entire bullpen, including a terrific performance by Shields (retired every batter he faced) and Weaver(his first MLB relief appearance, slammed the door shut). Aybar came up with his first RBI and hit in this post-season(the first of his career?)

The confidence of being able to weather do-or-die moments in a hostile environment has to give the Angels the upper hand.  They know they can do it.  They don't have to press.  They don't have to play beyond themselves. They just have to do what they already are capable of and they can come out on top. 

Now there's added pressure on Boston to win game 4 lest they get that sinking feeling as the reality of letting a 2 game lead slip away will surely favor the Angels if they earn a game 5 back in the Halo friendly Big A.

I like their chances!

I decided to look at splits at the end of the 2007 season and compare them with what the Halos are doing right now.  Here are some observations:

 

Players who have more than 40 ABs in that period, 6 hitting .299 or higher in 2007, 2 slugging above .500.  GA was the hottest hitter during that period and got an eye infection in the ALDS.

Right now, 5 hitting over .300.  but HK hasn't played, Morales hitting .293 and Naps .288.  6 players slugging over .500, Tex and Naps slugging over .600.

Starting Pitchers in 2007, Lackey 2.32 Ervin 2.96 Moseley 4.50, Weaver 4.50, and Saunders, Escobar 6+

Starting Pitchers in 2008, Weaver 2.25, Ervin 3.03 Lackey 4.78 and Saunders 5.24. Garland & Moseley 6+

Relief 2007 Speier Oliver and K-Rod < 3.00  Shields et. al 6+

Relief 2008 Jepson K-Rod Jose < 3.00 Shields Oliver < 4.0

 

Summary (assuming no freak injuries):

o Hitting for Avg is probably better this year if HK produces.

o Slugging is greatly improved.

o Starting Pitching is slightly worse.

o Relief pitching has better depth.  Bulger and Jepsen are X factors.

 

Conclusion

Halos should be able to put runs on the board.  Seems to me that's been the main problem in recent years.  Let's hope they can go deep!

2007 Hitting last month of the season.

2008 Hitting last 30 days

2007 Pitching last month of the season

2008 Pitching last 30 days

 

                OBP     SLG     BA
G Anderson      0.402   0.602   0.376
M Teixeira      0.433   0.620   0.340
T Hunter        0.402   0.701   0.338
H Kendrick      0.366   0.436   0.330
V Guerrero      0.380   0.582   0.319
E Aybar         0.373   0.435   0.304
C Figgins       0.360   0.314   0.284
M Izturis       0.321   0.400   0.260
J Rivera        0.275   0.452   0.233
J Mathis        0.304   0.388   0.194
G Matthews      0.265   0.107   0.107

                                OBP     SLG     BA
1       Baltimore Orioles       0.358   0.491   0.300
2       Seattle Mariners        0.344   0.439   0.300
3       Los Angeles Angels      0.363   0.490   0.298 XXXX
4       New York Yankees        0.363   0.459   0.289
5       Detroit Tigers          0.356   0.479   0.285
6       Texas Rangers           0.346   0.461   0.278
7       Cleveland Indians       0.345   0.461   0.273
8       Boston Red Sox          0.359   0.413   0.271
9       Minnesota Twins         0.334   0.406   0.271
10      Chicago White Sox       0.331   0.456   0.264
11      Kansas City Royals      0.312   0.392   0.256
12      Toronto Blue Jays       0.323   0.385   0.252
13      Tampa Bay Devil Rays    0.336   0.438   0.250
14      Oakland Athletics       0.289   0.319   0.218

Hmmm... lately no one seems to be talking about Mickey's poisonous approach....

Believe it!

(Team batting statistics averaged naively by year)

           HR   BB      SO      BA      OBP     SLG   OPS+
mickey era 156  475     885     0.274   0.336   0.423  99
90s        143  513     932     0.264   0.328   0.400  93
80s        145  542     850     0.258   0.326   0.393 100
overall    126  518     896     0.253   0.319   0.375  96
60s        114  510     987     0.239   0.305   0.351  95
70s        100  506     824     0.251   0.315   0.356  96

See below for explanation of OPS+

It's a little bit funny this feeling inside
I'm not one of those who can easily hide
I don't have much money but boy if I did
I'd buy a big house where we both could live

If I was a sculptor, but then again, no
Or a man who makes potions in a travelling show
I know it's not much but it's the best I can do
My gift is my song and this one's for you

And you can tell everybody this is your song
It may be quite simple but now that it's done
I hope you don't mind
I hope you don't mind that I put down in words
How wonderful life is while you're in the world

I sat on the roof and kicked off the moss
Well a few of the verses well they've got me quite cross
But the sun's been quite kind while I wrote this song
It's for people like you that keep it turned on

So excuse me forgetting but these things I do
You see I've forgotten if they're green or they're blue
Anyway the thing is what I really mean
Yours are the sweetest eyes I've ever seen

 

Adjusted OPS+

This value is calculated differently from the Total Baseball PRO+ statistic. I chose OPS+ to make this difference more clear. PRO+ as best I can tell is

PRO+ = 100 * ( OBP/lgOBP + SLG/lgSLG - 1)/BPF

Where lgOBP and lgSLG are the slugging and on-base percentage of a league-average player, and BPF is the batting park factor. This takes into account the difference in runs scored in a team's home and road games, so it doesn't depend on how good an offense or defense a team has.

My method is slightly more complicated, but I think it is more correct. The BPF is set up for runs and the way it is implemented in PRO+ applies it to something other than runs.

My method
1. Compute the runs created for the league with pitchers removed (basic form) RC = (H + BB + HBP)*(TB)/(AB + BB + HBP + SF)
2. Adjust this by the park factor RC' = RC*BPF
3. Assume that if hits increase in a park, that BB, HBP, TB increase at the some proportion.
4. Assume that Outs = AB - H (more or less) do not change at all as outs are finite.
5. Compute the number of H, BB, HBP, TB needed to produce RC', involves the quadratic formula. The idea for this came from the Willie Davis player comment in the Bill James New Historical Baseball Abstract. I think some others, including Clay Davenport have done some similar things.
6. Using these adjusted values compute what the league average player would have hit lgOBP*, lgSLG* in a park.
<!-- <LI>Take <TT>OPS+ = 100 * OPS /lgOPS = 100 * (OBP + SLG)/(lgOBP + lgSLG*)</TT></LI> -->
7. Take OPS+ = 100 * (OBP/lgOBP* + SLG/lgSLG* - 1)
8. Note, in my database, I don't store lgSLG, but store lgTB and similarly for lgOBP and lg(Times on Base), this makes calculation of career OPS+ much easier.

I never liked magic numbers because it doesn't really tell you what a team needs to do to clinch.  It always seems to sound harder that it is. Here's what I mean:

At the time of this post, Angels are 71-43.  162-114 games played = 48 games left. The Angels are currently 11.5 games ahead so that means that 48-11 = 37 wins guarantees an Angel post-season.

What's 37 wins add up to?  Well 37/48 = .771 winning percentage.  I don't think such a high winning percentage has been achieved over a 48 game span since Honas Wagner was playing and maybe even before that. So 37 doesn't mean much because it depends on what other teams are doing.

After most teams had played 48 games this year the highest winning percentage in the league was .612.  So assume the Rangers get hot and post a .612 WP from here on out.  That .612*48 ~ 30 wins.  So in that context, the Angels need to only post 30-11 = 19 wins => 19/48 ~ .396 WP to clinch

Not good enough?  Let's say Texas goes hog wild and posts a .677 WP.  That ~33 wins requiring 22 Angel victories to clinch or a .458 WP.

My pythagorean magic number is 22.

And for those playing at home, in 1995 the Angels went .355 in the last 31 games of the 145 games season while the Aquamen when .677 WP. Fewer games left required a poorer performance.

In summary, Keep the motor warm and play it one game at time baby!

 

 

Someone posted a link to Cot's Baseball Contracts which is awesome because I always was frustrated not knowing when players are eligible for free agency etc. So I thought in the context of the Teixera trade that it would be interesting to do a little what if analysis. All of this is really inconsequential to me if the Halos win another WS. If for some reason that doesn't work out, it would be interesting to see what their chances are next year.

2008

Garland 12
k-rod   10
tex     12.5
vladdy  14.5
ga      12
esco    9
lackey  7
figgy   4.75
izzy    1.2
q       1
rivera  2
oliver  2
erv     0.4

2009

Garland ?? free
K-Rod   ?? free
Tex     ?? free
Rivera  ?? free
oliver  ?? free
Vladdy 15M option 
GA     14M option 
lackey  9M option 
Figgy   ?? arbitration
izzy    ?? arb
Q       ?? arb
Ervin   ?? arb

2010

esco    ?? free
vladdy  ?? free
ga      ?? free
lackey  ?? free
figgy   ?? free
q       ?? free
izzy    ?? arb
ervin   ?? arb
weave   ?? arb
hk      ?? arb
reggie  ?? arb
nap     ?? arb
joe     ?? arb
mose    ?? arb
aybar   ?? arb
math    ?? arb

So to me, the math works like this:

Assume Garland is re-signed since Escobar is questionable. Assume Rivera is re-signed for 5M. Vladdy's club option is exercised as is Lackey's. GA probably walks. Figgy and Ervin are eligible for arbitration, let say that costs the club about $7M. If K-Rod walks, Net difference would be about $10M less. You lose Garrett and K-Rod.

In 2010, Esco, Vladdy, Lacky, Figgy, Rivera and Q would be free agents and a truck load of players would be eligible for arbitration. Esco walks, assume you keep Vladdy, Lackey, and Figgy. Q probably makes $2M if he stays. Give Vladdy $20M, Lackey $15M, and Figgy $7M. Arb players cost another $15M say. That's costing net $30M compared to this year.

My conclusion is that Vladdy isn't coming back after next year and Figgy probably isn't either. Unloading one other free agent probably makes a Teixera contract possible. All I can say is that Reagin has his work cut out for him!

Team batting stats sorted by SLG for July 1-26th

    Team              AB  R   H   HR RBI BB SO   OBP   SLG   AVG     
1.  LA Angels         680 124 196 28 117 63 105 .351  .481  .288  
2.  Cleveland Indians 668 102 178 29 101 56 159 .326  .478  .266  
3.  Texas Rangers     722 122 206 27 118 77 157 .356  .468  .285  
4.  Detroit Tigers    779 120 221 31 112 77 141 .349  .467  .284  
5.  Chicago White Sox 687 111 188 29 108 77 148 .349  .464  .274  
6.  Baltimore Orioles 746 123 200 29 121 70 127 .336  .462  .268  
7.  Minnesota Twins   693 108 210 15 104 74 119 .370  .452  .303   
8.  Toronto Blue Jays 682 105 180 14 98  70 134 .335  .405  .264  
9.  Boston Red Sox    682 92  186 14 87  81 145 .355  .399  .273  
10. New York Yankees  675 99  180 15 96  73 127 .349  .391  .267  
11. Tampa Bay Rays    687 79  162 19 74  76 159 .317  .371  .236  
12. KC Royals         758 94  187 17 90  50 136 .297  .369  .247  
13. Seattle Mariners  751 71  191 15 68  54 96  .310  .362  .254  
14. Oakland Athletics 710 73  166 17 68  57 177 .299  .349  .234  

Update: To clarify, the question being "answered" is whether or not the Halos are the proverbial bat short. I claim that they are not a bat short.

Frankie just tied Smoltz for the ultra-esoteric record of most saves before the all-star break.  There are 10 games left before the break.

He needs 24 more to break the single season record.

 

ALL-TIME SINGLE-SEASON SAVES LEADERS
Pitcher	Year	Saves
Bobby Thigpen	1990	57
Eric Gagne	2003	55
John Smoltz	2002	55
Trevor Hoffman	1998	53
Randy Myers	1993	53
Mariano Rivera	2004	53
Eric Gagne	2002	52
Rod Beck	1998	51
Dennis Eckersley	1992	51
Mariano Rivera	2001	50

 

Does anyone gather statistics to calculate the predictive power of this crap?  Are they even right half the time? How does a sports analyst gain credibility with this stuff?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/powerranking

2008 Power Rankings: June 20
	RK	LW RANK	TEAM	REC	COMMENT
	1	4	Red Sox	46-29	The red-hot J.D. Drew is batting .441 (26-for-59) with nine home runs in 17 games in June.
	2	9	Rays	43-29	Edwin Jackson has been far from effective in his three starts in June (a 7.41 ERA with 21 hits allowed in 17 innings).
	3	1	Cubs	45-28	The injuries are starting to pile up. First Alfonso Soriano, now Carlos Zambrano. Could the injuries be catching up to them?
	4	6	White Sox	41-31	Sox pitchers rank in the top two in ERA (first), batting average against (tied for second) and fewest walks (second) in all of baseball.
	5	12	Yankees	40-33	Andy Pettitte has looked like the Pettitte of old in his past two starts (2-0 with a 0.60 ERA in 15 innings pitched).
	6	2	Phillies	42-32	Despite losing each of their past three series (Marlins, Cardinals and Red Sox), the Phillies still sit atop the NL East.
	7	7	Athletics	39-33	What's up with Joe Blanton? The right-hander is 0-4 with a 7.94 ERA in his past four starts.
	8	5	Cardinals	42-32	Cardinals pitchers are making hitters work, having handed out the second-fewest walks in the NL.
	9	3	Angels	43-30	Since coming off the DL last month, John Lackey has pitched like an ace (4-1, 1.73 ERA).

            AB  G  H  2B 3B HR RBI BB SO   OBP  SLG  AVG 
V Guerrero  60  15 26  3  0  6  14  7  7  .485 .783 .433 
R Quinlan   22  3  8   1  0  0  2   2  3  .400 .409 .364 
M Izturis   69  10 24  2  0  2  12  6  8  .400 .464 .348 
C Figgins   38  5  13  1  0  0  2   5  5  .419 .368 .342 
G Matthews  63  7  20  2  1  1  4   3  12 .358 .429 .317 
J Mathis    40  6  12  1  0  2  9   8  13 .417 .475 .300
T Hunter    73  9  19  7  0  2  11  4  15 .308 .438 .260
E Aybar     12  1  3   0  0  1  2   0  1  .250 .500 .250
H Kendrick  75  5  18  5  0  0  7   2  15 .269 .307 .240
C Kotchman  65  10 15  3  0  2  6   4  2  .286 .369 .231
G Anderson  61  5  11  2  0  1  6   3  8  .224 .262 .180
B Wood      17  2  3   1  0  0  1   0  5  .176 .235 .176
J Rivera    11  0  1   1  0  0  1   1  4  .167 .182 .091
M Napoli    18  1  1   0  0  0  1   4  7  .217 .056 .056
R Willits   23  3  1   0  0  0  0   5  10 .214 .043 .043
                

• Guerrero is back to his normal self.
• Q and HGH are actually hitting.
• Kotch and GA are worse than HK and he's only hitting .240
• Willits and Napoli couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat.

Conclusion: Assuming everything reverts to the mean, you've got more than 50% of your lineup batting over .300. Unfortunately, Vladdy is the only true slugger who's slugging right now. You don't want izzy and mathis as your #2 and #3 sluggers. I expect the offense to be mediocre as opposed to the first two weeks of june when it was non-existent.

                W L ERA   G  GS SV SVO IP   H  R  ER HR HBP BB SO      
                
J Lackey    LAA 3 0 1.64  3  3  0  0   22.0 14 4  4  1  0   3  19
E Santana   LAA 2 1 3.38  4  4  0  0   26.2 24 11 10 3  1   8  27
J Saunders  LAA 3 1 3.81  4  4  0  0   26.0 26 14 11 5  0   5  15
J Weaver    LAA 3 1 4.21  4  4  0  0   25.2 26 12 12 4  0   7  19
J Garland   LAA 1 1 4.56  4  4  0  0   23.2 28 13 12 3  2   10 18


S Shields   LAA 0 0 0.00  8  0  1  1   8.2  2  0  0  0  0   3  12
F Rodriguez LAA 0 0 1.80  10 0  9  10  10.0 5  2  2  1  0   3  9
J Arredondo LAA 1 0 1.93  10 0  0  0   9.1  8  2  2  0  0   2  7
J Speier    LAA 0 1 4.32  7  0  0  0   8.1  2  4  4  1  0   3  6
D Oliver    LAA 0 0 4.35  9  0  0  1   10.1 14 5  5  1  0   3  6
D O'Day     LAA 0 0 8.10  2  0  0  0   3.1  6  3  3  0  0   0  1
C Bootcheck LAA 0 1 54.00 1  0  0  0   0.2  3  4  4  1  0   1  1

• Lackey is money
• Weave and Garland are mediocre but should, in theory, be able to pitch better
• Shields is back
• Oliver is worse that we think he is and Speier isn't as bad as we think he is.

Conclusion: I expect/hope starting pitching will improve which is great because it's already awesome. Would be nice if Speier and/or Oliver could tighten things up. Placing all the chips on Jose to get it to Shields and Frankie is risky.

Arredondo is still being mentored by Rodriguez, the closer Arredondo calls "my little daddy."

Rodriguez, who made an even bigger splash as a 20-year-old phenom in 2002, is trying to make Arredondo feel comfortable.

"When I came up, no one took me under their wing, and it doesn't feel right," Rodriguez said. "So I try to do whatever I can to make him feel comfortable and have confidence in himself every time he goes out to the mound.

"He has great stuff, great velocity, a great split, but he's a human being. Eventually things aren't going to go the way you expect them, and that's when you have to be mentally prepared."

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/angels/la-sp-angels6-2008jun06,0,6408905.story