5 HRs in the last 6 games.

Now hitting .294/.364/.576 on the season.

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Brett Wallace has always been seen as a "pure hitter"; a big guy with a lot of natural power, but always described as a prospect who's swing was built more towards hitting .300+ than it was towards hitting 30+ home runs.  Because of this, his projection has always been as a 20-25 HR type hitter, with the optimistic projection of "maybe" a few 30 HR type seasons.  This projection goes all the way up to recently; when a few weeks ago (when the MILB season was about to start) Callis said that Wallace was a 20-25 HR "Batting Champ" type hitter in the future.

As a Blue Jay's fan, the Wallace/Taylor trade was a marginal one at best in my eyes at the time it was made.  I immediately looked into why a big, strong guy like Wallace was projected for so few home runs.  What I found were some consistently bizarre batted-ball splits in his two minor league seasons since being drafted:

2008

55.5% GB, 15.3% LD, 28.8% FB

2009

51.7% GB, 19.6% LD, 28.7% FB

As we know through common sense; to hit a home run you need to hit the ball in the air.  Fly balls are by far the most common home runs.  The shocking thing about Wallace was seeing a 240lb corner infielder with the batted ball splits of a purely speed based type player who tries to run his way into hits.  Obviously, Wallace is the opposite of this type of player as he's not going to beat out a throw to save his life.  Save for a few cases; the great majority of the MLB's big home run hitters (Dunn, Pena, Pujols, Fielder, etc, etc, etc) are hitting at 40%+ fly-ball rates...this shouldn't be that surprising, as these guys are all looking to lift the ball to take advantage of their natural power.  What do Wallace's sub-30% flyball rates compare to? Hitters like Carl Crawford, Ichiro, Jeter, Adam Jones.  In fact, the only sub-30% flyball hitter to hit more than 20 home-runs last season was Joe Mauer.  The 50%+ groundball rates were eye-popping; I mean why would you want any slow-as-molasses future first baseman hitting the ball on the ground at a 50% rate?

Questioning Brett Wallace's future HR output made perfect sense.  The guy simply wasn't lifting the ball enough to drive it out of the park.  The "inside-out", "level", "pure hitter" swing descriptions made perfect sense.

Cue 17 games and 60 at-bats into the 2010 season, and what has Brett Wallace shown? A league-leading 7 HRs (he had an 8th robbed in the 9th inning a few days ago) and a .667 SLG% that is outproducing all of the top big-named corner infielders in the minors (including Ike Davis).  How is he doing it? His current batted-ball splits:

2010

34.1% GB, 18.2% LD, 47.7% FB

Basically; a complete turn around from what he had shown the previous two seasons.  Its early in the season, but Brett Wallace isn't showing a "level" swing; he's showing a HR hitting swing, at least according to the statistics.  Its not like he is hitting a ton of flyball outs which are inflating his rates either; as he is hitting .381 on flyballs.  All 8 of his flyball hits have either left the park or dropped for a double.  The most impressive thing about this early start is WHERE he is hitting the homeruns:

HR #1 hit to dead-center

HR #2 pulled to right-field

HR #3 hit to opposite field

HR #4 pulled to right-field

HR #5 hit to opposite field

HR #6 hit to left-center field

HR #7 hit to opposite field

He has hit 7 HRs with only 2 being pulled to RF.  He has hit 3 opposite field homeruns, 1 that was hit to opposite CF, and 1 that was hit to dead center.  As I said above; the 8th HR that he had pulled back the other day was also on a flyball hit to opposite field.  In other words; he is lifting and driving the ball all over the field.

Whether or not the Blue Jays saw and altered something in his swing is undetermined at this point, but whatever has happened has been working.  It is still too early in the season to make a full conclusion, but IMO this is something to definitely keep an eye on as the season progresses.  If Brett Wallace can continue hitting at a 40%+ flyball rate it wouldn't surprise me if he shakes the "20-25 HR" label and becomes a true mashing first baseman.

...are probably the most overblown I've seen in a long time.

Weight/Build? You'd think this kid was David Wells if you went by what some people write about him.  He is NOT 245lbs+ or whatever some places want to list him at.  He is 220-225lbs at most, not even fat....just naturally big/wide.  His upper body/midsection isn't even that big, he has thick legs.  Really nothing to worry about at all.

Defense/Mobility? He is an athletic 'big', he can move well, he runs the bases well and definitely isn't a base-clogger or even close to it (people seem to forget he hit something like 7+ triples in his first minor league season).  Defensively he can definitely stay in the outfield, at worst he is an average-ranged LF with a plus arm.  Any talk of him being a DH is ridiculous, he's not a plus defender by any means but he moves well enough and is better defensively at this point than Adam Lind ever was.

Strikeout issues? From what I've seen on the major league level his eye at the plate is very developed for a 20 year old.  He stays quiet at the plate and doesn't flinch/look stupid on breaking balls.  He takes pitches and knows what he wants to look for.  He's going to strike out a decent amount because he is an aggressive hitter in the sense that he's going to swing at balls in the zone, however his pure hitting ability is so good that it is hardly anything to worry about...he can swing the bat and hit the ball, you can see that immediately just by watching him at the plate.  As he matures he will only get better recognizing pitches and timing his swing.  High strikeout rate is an issue when said player is an average hitter...when you have an elite hitter (and Snider flat out is, for a 20 year old he is phenomenal) it is simply not something that is going to "bust" him.  His strikeout numbers this season in the minors were also magnified due to an elbow injury he suffered in spring training which forced him to DH exclusively for like a full month if not more...his strikeout rate during this period was incredibly high and obviously not normal.

Conclusion: Snider is going to rake, and rake big.

I seriously doubt this happens, but in today's BA Draft Tracker they mention that Cubs GM Jim Hendry was at Virginia's regional this week to check out 1B/LHP Sean Doolittle with the possibility of, get this,...drafting him 3rd overall.  They mention that new ownership could perhaps be "tightening the purse strings in Chicago" which could push them to make a signability pick at number 3 overall.

Like I said; I seriously doubt this happens, but does any Chicago fan think that this may be something to look at?  I doubt BA would just throw that in there for jokes, but the Cubs cant seriously be thinking about this...can they?  If this happened would this be possibly the biggest reach in a LONG time?  Doolittle is a fringe first rounder and this would surely trump the Padres taking Bush 1st overall a few years back (Bush was still considered a top 10 - top 15 talent).

Hit his 13th HR of the season today, AVG currently over .300

Potential GG winner with his rocket arm in the outfield, pretty good speed on the base-paths, and big-time power potential thats really starting to show.  A lot of people felt that his big-start last year was a fluke, but that doesn't appear to be the case at all.  He looks like he's quickly evolving into one of the best outfielders in baseball, his ability to completely destroy fastballs middle-in is incredible when you take into account that two years ago he couldn't seem to pull anything (the few HRs he hit were all to dead center field or opposite field).