SB Nation User Blog: mgrex03

Finding the Winning Factors - Drive Success Rate

mgrex03 — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 02:58:10 -0000

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at a not-so common Football Outsider stat: Drive Success Rate. The FO website didn't give a full definition on their website, but said to refer to Pro Football Prospectus 2005, where it was introduced. The Public Library came to the rescue, and I found exactly what they meant:

Drive Success Rate (or more precisely, series of downs success rate), or DSR, measures the likelihood that a team's offense will get another first down (or a touchdown, which the official NFL statisticians also count as a first down) in a given set of downs. And the equivalent defensive number measures how often a defense will allow another first down.

It confused me at first, as I thought they considered a drive "successful" with just 1 first down. But after reading this, it looks at each time a team has a first down, how often do they earn another one. My next challenge was to figure out the easiest way to calculate this. After thinking about for way too long, the simple answer finally came to me:

(First Downs + Pass TDs + Rush TDs) / (First Downs + Drives)**

**I don't know if this is the formula FO uses, because they didn't have that on their site. But it's the formula I used (and the numbers came out very close), so we're going with it.

I went back to 2001 to see how teams do. That means I'll be looking at 4,080 games over the past 8 years. I did this calculation for every game, then found the overall average for a game. I then went back and compared every game to this average, and found wins/losses based on being above or below average.

Let's get to the numbers:

The Overall Average Drive Success Rate over the past 8 years is 69.1%. Does this mean that offenses are just really good at getting first downs, or the defenses aren't that good at stopping them?
The Colts blow away the competition in this, with a DSR of 77.3%. The usual suspects are also high up there (Patriots, Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos), making the top 5 teams in this category all teams from the AFC. Dominance anyone?
Defensively, the Ravens are #1 again (they really have been as dominant on defense as the Colts have been on offense), with a DSR of only 63.5%. Even the best team can only stop an offense 36% of the time. The Colts come in at 30th, with a DSR of 71.6%. If the Colts can get back to "average", they'll have a scary good team.
So how often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense? 1308-658-1, which is 66.5%. That's the 2nd best record we've seen so far. DSR is looking really good for predicting games. Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 1381-729-3, which is 65.4%, which is a little worse than the offense. We haven't seen numbers like this since we looked at Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt. Fantastic.
When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 742-90-1, or 89.1%. This ranks 1st out of 11 stats so far, which is unbelievable. I didn't think we could get better than ANPY/A, but we did. I guess those guys at FO know what they are doing, huh?
The best game since 2001? Week 11 in 2007, where the Patriots had a DSR of 97.4% against the Bills. I remember that game, and it was ugly. Best game for the Colts offense? Week 4 in 2007 against the Broncos, where they had a DSR of 92.1%, 5th best game overall. Of the top 35 games, 11 are Colts games. Also, the top 42 games were all wins (the first loss was a Jaguars loss to the Colts, Week 13 of 2007), and those teams averaged 40.5 points / game.
The worst game since 2001? Week 16 in 2006, where the Vikings had a DSR of 20.0% against the Packers, a 9-7 loss. Tavaris Jackson at his best, and no Adrian Peterson. Only 104 total yards. Yeah, I'd say that was a bad, bad game. The Colts worst game (with Manning)? Week 12 in 2001, a 39-27 loss to the Ravens, where they had a DSR of 56.3%.
The Colts have only had 21 games where they were below average in DSR, and were 11-10 in those games. This is by far the lowest number of games below average (the Patriots were 2nd with 37 games). That Manning guy is good.
Two teams haven't lost since 2001 when their offense and defense are above average: the Falcons (22-0) and the Titans (19-0). Included in that Titans stat is the final game of 2007, when Kerry Collins put them in the playoffs against the Colts 2nd and 3rd team.
I mentioned above that if the Colts could get to "average" on defense, this team would be scary good. How do they get there? They need to make just 2 stops / game to get back to 69.5%. That's it, only 2. The offense will be above average at least 12 games. If the defense can do the same, the Colts will win, period.

So what did we learn today? Drive Success Rate is the best stat we've looked at so far, and leads to a whole lot of wins. We also learned the Colts (like many of the other stats) are really good on offense, and really bad on defense.

I promised a table of all the stats we've looked at so far, and those we still have to look at. Here goes:

Statistic	Average	Off Win%	Def Win %	Off/Def Win %
ANPY/A	5.085	70.6%	70.2%	88.6%
Yds/Play	5.095	62.2%	61.6%	77.4%
RZ Eff	65.6%	59.3%	60.6%	69.7%
RB Success	45.6%	54.8%	54.5%	59.0%
Yds/Drive	28.36	63.2%	63.6%	81.5%
ToP/Drive	2:39.3	65.4%	65.3%	79.6%
DSR	69.1%	66.5%	65.4%	89.1%
Yds/Carry	4.125	52.8%	52.2%	55.0%
3rd/4th Down	39.1%	62.6%	61.8%	75.1%
Turnovers
Avg Start Pos	31.20	65.0%	62.8%	72.9%
Plays/Drive
Net Punts Yds/Game
Penalty Yds / Play
First Downs/Drive
3 & Outs	3.92	58.8%	57.4%	69.9%

After the jump you'll see the offensive and defensive numbers for each team, as well as Win/Loss records when going above/below the league average. Click on the headers to sort. Here's a link to the last 5 years worth of data. There's not much of a difference, especially since it only took out 3 years worth of data.

Here are the Offensive and Defensive Numbers...

Team	Offense					Defense
Team	1st Downs	Pass TDs	Rush TDs	Drives	DSR	1st Downs	Pass TDs	Rush TDs	Drives	DSR
Ravens	2238	134	96	1507	65.9%	2097	143	68	1537	63.5%
Buccaneers	2247	154	84	1466	66.9%	2076	149	70	1464	64.8%
Bears	2094	136	91	1555	63.6%	2332	147	90	1590	65.5%
Steelers	2453	178	120	1429	70.9%	2084	142	75	1425	65.6%
Eagles	2406	202	105	1517	69.2%	2270	140	81	1514	65.8%
Cowboys	2333	178	100	1499	68.1%	2219	172	91	1491	66.9%
Panthers	2164	153	100	1510	65.8%	2283	158	100	1504	67.1%
Redskins	2283	152	89	1482	67.0%	2237	159	97	1468	67.3%
Patriots	2646	225	122	1395	74.1%	2317	152	80	1431	68.0%
Packers	2493	225	94	1488	70.6%	2331	181	94	1496	68.1%
Dolphins	2260	144	112	1479	67.3%	2332	165	88	1459	68.2%
Giants	2474	160	114	1478	69.5%	2331	177	101	1485	68.4%
Jaguars	2382	153	128	1412	70.2%	2297	152	92	1401	68.7%
Broncos	2620	177	123	1439	71.9%	2285	150	120	1419	69.0%
Seahawks	2540	183	122	1472	70.9%	2445	170	99	1480	69.1%
Browns	2077	153	62	1464	64.7%	2422	155	108	1451	69.3%
Titans	2332	157	115	1486	68.2%	2357	193	107	1471	69.4%
Vikings	2469	178	118	1458	70.4%	2429	171	113	1447	70.0%
Chargers	2458	190	158	1425	72.3%	2489	189	101	1481	70.0%
Rams	2504	184	100	1473	70.1%	2391	170	133	1452	70.1%
Bills	2209	137	93	1435	66.9%	2389	155	126	1418	70.1%
Saints	2520	204	111	1460	71.2%	2382	198	108	1448	70.2%
Raiders	2244	144	96	1449	67.3%	2481	160	153	1470	70.7%
Cardinals	2325	169	77	1474	67.7%	2475	202	120	1479	70.7%
Jets	2295	146	97	1340	69.8%	2458	143	114	1365	71.0%
Falcons	2294	140	125	1455	68.3%	2490	184	127	1454	71.0%
49ers	2203	156	97	1486	66.6%	2472	192	118	1442	71.1%
Bengals	2428	175	95	1447	69.6%	2486	196	112	1441	71.1%
Chiefs	2598	170	163	1444	72.5%	2524	178	131	1441	71.5%
Colts	2811	255	121	1311	77.3%	2399	148	124	1331	71.6%
Texans	1905	115	86	1227	67.2%	2216	172	103	1219	72.5%
Lions	2130	146	71	1474	65.1%	2639	210	141	1462	72.9%
Total	75435	5373	3385	46436	69.1%	75435	5373	3385	46436	69.1%

Here are the Win/Loss records of teams when they go above/below average:

Team	Offense								Defense
	Above Average				Below Average				Above Average				Below Average
	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	77	14	0	0.846	20	17	0	0.541	64	5	0	0.928	33	26	0	0.559
Steelers	57	13	1	0.810	28	29	0	0.491	59	18	1	0.763	26	24	0	0.520
Colts	80	27	0	0.748	11	10	0	0.524	43	8	0	0.843	48	29	0	0.623
Chargers	53	24	0	0.688	18	33	0	0.353	45	19	0	0.703	26	38	0	0.406
Packers	50	22	0	0.694	25	31	0	0.446	47	17	0	0.734	28	36	0	0.438
Cowboys	46	14	0	0.767	20	48	0	0.294	48	32	0	0.600	18	30	0	0.375
Eagles	52	13	0	0.800	29	33	1	0.468	60	23	1	0.720	21	23	0	0.477
Ravens	29	19	0	0.604	42	38	0	0.525	62	32	0	0.660	9	25	0	0.265
Seahawks	50	27	0	0.649	21	30	0	0.412	47	15	0	0.758	24	42	0	0.364
Jets	42	23	0	0.646	20	43	0	0.317	37	21	0	0.638	25	45	0	0.357
Broncos	51	22	0	0.699	23	32	0	0.418	49	22	0	0.690	25	32	0	0.439
Rams	44	29	0	0.603	16	39	0	0.291	41	25	0	0.621	19	43	0	0.306
Dolphins	32	17	0	0.653	29	50	0	0.367	43	27	0	0.614	18	40	0	0.310
Panthers	33	13	0	0.717	31	51	0	0.378	47	27	0	0.635	17	37	0	0.315
Bears	25	7	0	0.781	44	52	0	0.458	56	31	0	0.644	14	27	0	0.341
Giants	40	23	0	0.635	28	37	0	0.431	44	21	0	0.677	24	39	0	0.381
Titans	35	18	0	0.660	35	40	0	0.467	48	15	0	0.762	22	43	0	0.338
Falcons	45	16	0	0.738	17	49	1	0.261	37	16	0	0.698	25	49	1	0.340
Buccaneers	36	12	0	0.750	30	50	0	0.375	54	35	0	0.607	12	27	0	0.308
Saints	43	28	0	0.606	17	40	0	0.298	40	21	0	0.656	20	47	0	0.299
Chiefs	46	31	0	0.597	13	38	0	0.255	30	19	0	0.612	29	50	0	0.367
Vikings	39	24	0	0.619	22	43	0	0.338	44	22	0	0.667	17	45	0	0.274
Bills	27	22	0	0.551	25	54	0	0.316	39	21	0	0.650	13	55	0	0.191
Jaguars	44	24	0	0.647	18	42	0	0.300	41	22	0	0.651	21	44	0	0.323
Browns	25	11	0	0.694	24	68	0	0.261	35	36	0	0.493	14	43	0	0.246
49ers	32	21	0	0.604	21	54	0	0.280	34	25	0	0.576	20	49	0	0.290
Bengals	39	26	0	0.600	15	47	1	0.246	34	19	1	0.639	20	54	0	0.270
Redskins	32	22	0	0.593	26	48	0	0.351	45	30	0	0.600	13	40	0	0.245
Cardinals	33	24	0	0.579	16	55	0	0.225	28	28	0	0.500	21	51	0	0.292
Raiders	30	20	0	0.600	15	63	0	0.192	30	28	0	0.517	15	55	0	0.214
Texans	24	31	0	0.436	16	41	0	0.281	30	21	0	0.588	10	51	0	0.164
Lions	17	21	0	0.447	14	76	0	0.156	20	28	0	0.417	11	69	0	0.138
Total	1308	658	1	0.665	729	1381	3	0.346	1381	729	3	0.654	658	1308	1	0.335

And finally, Win/Loss records when the offense is above average, and the defense holds the other team below average:

Team	Above Average				Below Average
Team	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Falcons	22	0	0	1.000	2	33	1	0.069
Titans	19	0	0	1.000	6	25	0	0.194
Patriots	47	1	0	0.979	3	13	0	0.188
Eagles	32	1	0	0.970	1	11	0	0.083
Jets	20	1	0	0.952	3	23	0	0.115
Panthers	20	1	0	0.952	4	25	0	0.138
Bears	17	1	0	0.944	5	22	0	0.185
Chargers	29	2	0	0.935	2	16	0	0.111
Buccaneers	27	2	0	0.931	3	17	0	0.150
Cowboys	30	3	0	0.909	2	19	0	0.095
Steelers	32	3	1	0.903	1	14	0	0.067
Jaguars	25	3	0	0.893	2	23	0	0.080
Colts	33	4	0	0.892	1	6	0	0.143
Packers	24	3	0	0.889	2	17	0	0.105
Broncos	32	4	0	0.889	6	14	0	0.300
Lions	8	1	0	0.889	2	49	0	0.039
Vikings	23	3	0	0.885	1	24	0	0.040
Seahawks	28	4	0	0.875	2	19	0	0.095
Chiefs	21	3	0	0.875	4	22	0	0.154
Browns	14	2	0	0.875	3	34	0	0.081
Cardinals	13	2	0	0.867	1	29	0	0.033
49ers	18	3	0	0.857	5	32	0	0.135
Bills	18	3	0	0.857	4	36	0	0.100
Rams	28	5	0	0.848	3	19	0	0.136
Dolphins	20	4	0	0.833	6	27	0	0.182
Saints	25	5	0	0.833	2	24	0	0.077
Bengals	20	4	0	0.833	1	32	0	0.030
Ravens	24	5	0	0.828	4	11	0	0.267
Texans	14	3	0	0.824	0	23	0	0.000
Redskins	22	5	0	0.815	3	23	0	0.115
Raiders	17	4	0	0.810	2	39	0	0.049
Giants	20	5	0	0.800	4	21	0	0.160
Total	742	90	1	0.891	90	742	1	0.109

Finding the Winning Factors - 3 & Outs

mgrex03 — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 02:14:12 -0000

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at a not-so common stat: 3 & Outs. Technically it should be called "Drives without a First Down", but 3 & Outs is the common vernacular, so we'll go with that. Here's how I calculated it:

Drives without a First Down

Tough huh? I looked at dividing it by the number of drives in a game, but it wasn't as good at predicting as just straight 3 & Outs. In the stats I included the Percentages, just for completeness (and to show the Colts awesomeness on offense and not-awesomeness on defense).

Let's get to the numbers:

The Overall Average number of 3 & Outs over the past 8 years is 3.92 / Game. About 1 per quarter, and 34.5% of all drives. That seems high to me, but the numbers don't lie. Funny enough there have been exactly 16,000 3 & Outs the past 8 years.
The Colts have by far the least number of 3 & Outs, with 336 (or 2.63 / Game). The difference between the Colts and #2 (Patriots) is the same difference between #2 and #14 (Giants). The Colts are also way ahead in Percentage at only 25.6%. I'm not surprised by this at all.
Defensively, the Ravens are #1 again, causing 633 3 & Outs (or 4.95 / Game). That 1 more 3 & Out, on average, for every game. How have the Colts done? If you guessed dead last, you'd be right. The Colts have only forced 399 3 & Outs (or 3.12 / Game). Yikes. But we already knew the Colts were bad at this.
So how often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense? 1096-767-0, which is 58.8%. That's definitely not as good as some of the other stats we've looked at. Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 1271-942-4, which is 57.4%, which is a little worse than the offense. This doesn't seem like it is going to give us good predictions.
When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 577-248, or 69.9%. This ranks 7th out of 10 stats so far, which won't make the cut. I plan on keeping the top 6.
The best game since 2001? Week 5 in 2005, where the Redskins had 12 drives without a 3 & Out against. the Broncos. That's pretty darn good. Unfortunately for them, they lost to the Broncos 21-19. Best game for the Colts offense? Week 11 in 2003 against the Jets, where they had 11 drives without a 3 & Out, tied for 2nd best game overall (8 games).
The worst game since 2001? Week 15 in 2006, where the Buccaneers had 13 3 & Outs against the Bears. They did have 19 drives in that game though, and scored 31 points, losing in Overtime. The Colts worst game not involving Sorgi? Week 12, 2001, a 39-27 loss to Baltimore, where they had 8 3 & Outs. The Colts have only had 5 games with more than 5 3 & Outs.
The Colts have only lost 2 games when they have had less than 4 3 & Outs, and the defense has forced 4 or more 3 & Outs: Week 10 in 2003 against the Jaguars (28-23 loss), and Week 13 in 2003 against the Patriots (stupid Edge not getting in the End Zone at the end). The Colts have won 21 straight games since then. Come on defense, get your act together and get off the field!

So what did we learn today? Well, 3 & Outs aren't the best way to predict football games, but it isn't the worst we've looked at so far. We also learned the Colts are really good on offense, and really bad on defense.

I promised a table of all the stats we've looked at so far, and those we still have to look at. Here goes:

Statistic	Average	Off Win%	Def Win %	Off/Def Win %
ANPY/A	5.085	70.6%	70.2%	88.6%
Yds/Play	5.095	62.2%	61.6%	77.4%
RZ Eff	65.6%	59.3%	60.6%	69.7%
RB Success	45.6%	54.8%	54.5%	59.0%
Yds/Drive	28.36	63.2%	63.6%	81.5%
ToP/Drive	2:39.3	65.4%	65.3%	79.6%
DSR
Yds/Carry	4.125	52.8%	52.2%	55.0%
3rd/4th Down	39.1%	62.6%	61.8%	75.1%
Turnovers
Avg Start Pos	31.20	65.0%	62.8%	72.9%
Plays/Drive
Net Punts Yds/Game
Penalty Yds / Play
First Downs/Drive
3 & Outs	3.92	58.8%	57.4%	69.9%

Here are the Offensive and Defensive Numbers...

Team	Offense			Defense
Team	3 & Outs	Drives	3 & Outs %	3 & Outs	Drives	3 & Outs %
Colts	336	1311	25.6%	399	1331	30.0%
Patriots	413	1395	29.6%	499	1431	34.9%
Steelers	434	1429	30.4%	556	1425	39.0%
Broncos	446	1439	31.0%	488	1419	34.4%
Chiefs	449	1444	31.1%	449	1441	31.2%
Rams	459	1473	31.2%	490	1452	33.7%
Chargers	457	1425	32.1%	526	1481	35.5%
Jets	431	1340	32.2%	419	1365	30.7%
Saints	472	1460	32.3%	476	1448	32.9%
Vikings	472	1458	32.4%	478	1447	33.0%
Seahawks	477	1472	32.4%	476	1480	32.2%
Packers	498	1488	33.5%	504	1496	33.7%
Jaguars	473	1412	33.5%	479	1401	34.2%
Giants	496	1478	33.6%	513	1485	34.5%
Falcons	498	1455	34.2%	467	1454	32.1%
Ravens	523	1507	34.7%	633	1537	41.2%
Buccaneers	518	1466	35.3%	572	1464	39.1%
Titans	526	1486	35.4%	562	1471	38.2%
Raiders	516	1449	35.6%	487	1470	33.1%
Bengals	522	1447	36.1%	448	1441	31.1%
Bills	518	1435	36.1%	487	1418	34.3%
Cardinals	533	1474	36.2%	497	1479	33.6%
Texans	444	1227	36.2%	373	1219	30.6%
Eagles	551	1517	36.3%	569	1514	37.6%
Dolphins	538	1479	36.4%	524	1459	35.9%
Cowboys	549	1499	36.6%	547	1491	36.7%
Redskins	545	1482	36.8%	551	1468	37.5%
Panthers	571	1510	37.8%	545	1504	36.2%
Browns	557	1464	38.0%	461	1451	31.8%
Lions	563	1474	38.2%	452	1462	30.9%
49ers	586	1486	39.4%	456	1442	31.6%
Bears	629	1555	40.5%	617	1590	38.8%
Total	16000	46436	34.5%	16000	46436	34.5%

Here are the Win/Loss records of teams when they go above/below average:

Team	Offense								Defense
	Above Average				Below Average				Above Average				Below Average
	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	63	14	0	0.818	34	17	0	0.667	59	11	0	0.843	38	20	0	0.655
Steelers	56	18	0	0.757	29	24	1	0.546	53	24	1	0.686	32	18	0	0.640
Colts	71	20	0	0.780	20	17	0	0.541	40	8	0	0.833	51	29	0	0.638
Chargers	44	24	0	0.647	27	33	0	0.450	48	25	0	0.658	23	32	0	0.418
Packers	37	20	0	0.649	38	33	0	0.535	43	29	0	0.597	32	24	0	0.571
Cowboys	29	15	0	0.659	37	47	0	0.440	35	37	0	0.486	31	25	0	0.554
Eagles	40	14	0	0.741	41	32	1	0.561	52	25	1	0.673	29	21	0	0.580
Ravens	32	24	0	0.571	39	33	0	0.542	62	36	0	0.633	9	21	0	0.300
Seahawks	42	25	0	0.627	29	32	0	0.475	45	23	0	0.662	26	34	0	0.433
Jets	32	37	0	0.464	30	29	0	0.508	36	18	0	0.667	26	48	0	0.351
Broncos	45	24	0	0.652	29	30	0	0.492	43	25	0	0.632	31	29	0	0.517
Rams	36	35	0	0.507	24	33	0	0.421	40	30	0	0.571	20	38	0	0.345
Dolphins	24	20	0	0.545	37	47	0	0.440	40	37	0	0.519	21	30	0	0.412
Panthers	28	20	0	0.583	36	44	0	0.450	41	31	0	0.569	23	33	0	0.411
Bears	23	14	0	0.622	46	45	0	0.505	56	31	0	0.644	13	28	0	0.317
Giants	35	29	0	0.547	33	31	0	0.516	46	27	0	0.630	22	33	0	0.400
Titans	25	20	0	0.556	45	38	0	0.542	52	28	0	0.650	18	30	0	0.375
Falcons	37	21	0	0.638	25	44	1	0.364	30	33	1	0.477	32	32	0	0.500
Buccaneers	39	20	0	0.661	27	42	0	0.391	47	30	0	0.610	19	32	0	0.373
Saints	33	30	0	0.524	27	38	0	0.415	32	28	0	0.533	28	40	0	0.412
Chiefs	36	34	0	0.514	23	35	0	0.397	33	28	0	0.541	26	41	0	0.388
Vikings	37	29	0	0.561	24	38	0	0.387	35	33	0	0.515	26	34	0	0.433
Bills	25	31	0	0.446	27	45	0	0.375	40	34	0	0.541	12	42	0	0.222
Jaguars	35	29	0	0.547	27	37	0	0.422	35	30	0	0.538	27	36	0	0.429
Browns	24	22	0	0.522	25	57	0	0.305	27	38	0	0.415	22	41	0	0.349
49ers	26	18	0	0.591	28	56	0	0.333	32	32	0	0.500	22	42	0	0.344
Bengals	25	28	0	0.472	29	45	1	0.393	29	26	1	0.527	25	47	0	0.347
Redskins	29	22	0	0.569	29	48	0	0.377	41	41	0	0.500	17	29	0	0.370
Cardinals	22	26	0	0.458	27	53	0	0.338	28	34	0	0.452	21	45	0	0.318
Raiders	24	28	0	0.462	21	55	0	0.276	29	38	0	0.433	16	45	0	0.262
Texans	24	30	0	0.444	16	42	0	0.276	19	29	0	0.396	21	43	0	0.328
Lions	18	26	0	0.409	13	71	0	0.155	23	43	0	0.348	8	54	0	0.129
Total	1096	767	0	0.588	942	1271	4	0.426	1271	942	4	0.574	767	1096	0	0.412

And finally, Win/Loss records when the offense is above average, and the defense holds the other team below average

Team	Above Average				Below Average
Team	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	32	3	0	0.914	7	9	0	0.438
Steelers	29	9	0	0.763	5	9	0	0.357
Jets	18	3	0	0.857	12	14	0	0.462
Packers	15	7	0	0.682	10	11	0	0.476
Falcons	15	8	0	0.652	10	19	0	0.345
Chargers	26	10	0	0.722	5	18	0	0.217
Giants	20	9	0	0.690	7	13	0	0.350
Ravens	26	10	0	0.722	3	7	0	0.300
Seahawks	23	7	0	0.767	7	16	0	0.304
Rams	21	13	0	0.618	5	16	0	0.238
Eagles	20	8	0	0.714	9	15	0	0.375
Jaguars	17	8	0	0.680	9	15	0	0.375
Bears	15	5	0	0.750	5	19	0	0.208
Broncos	23	7	0	0.767	9	12	0	0.429
Cowboys	15	7	0	0.682	17	17	0	0.500
Panthers	14	9	0	0.609	9	22	0	0.290
Colts	26	2	0	0.929	6	11	0	0.353
Buccaneers	25	5	0	0.833	5	17	0	0.227
Dolphins	12	6	0	0.667	9	16	0	0.360
49ers	14	8	0	0.636	10	32	0	0.238
Chiefs	21	9	0	0.700	11	16	0	0.407
Saints	13	11	0	0.542	8	21	0	0.276
Titans	13	5	0	0.722	6	15	0	0.286
Raiders	15	7	0	0.682	7	24	0	0.226
Cardinals	10	8	0	0.556	9	27	0	0.250
Vikings	20	12	0	0.625	9	17	0	0.346
Bengals	11	7	0	0.611	11	26	0	0.297
Browns	10	8	0	0.556	8	27	0	0.229
Bills	17	13	0	0.567	4	24	0	0.143
Redskins	18	12	0	0.600	6	19	0	0.240
Texans	10	8	0	0.556	7	21	0	0.250
Lions	13	4	0	0.765	3	32	0	0.086
Total	577	248	0	0.699	248	577	0	0.301

Can Pythagoras Predict NFL Games?

mgrex03 — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 04:51:56 -0000

A couple months ago, Cassieper asked me to look at the Pythagorean formula, and see if it is good predictor of games. Since I was also interested in this, I thought I'd look since 2001 to see how well it did. For those not familiar with the Pythagorean formula for wins, here it is:

Points Scored ^ 2.37 / (Points Scored ^ 2.37 + Points Allowed ^ 2.37)

This originated from a baseball formula Bill James invented back in the early 80's, and was modified for the NFL. It has been shown to be a more accurate predictor of the following year's record than just wins and losses, but (to my knowledge) hasn't been closely looked at on a game-by-game basis. So here's what I did:

For each game, I calculated what the expected wins were up until that point in the season. Then looked to see which team had the higher expected win total, and if it matched who won, it was a correctly predicted game.
Since in Week 1 there is no season numbers, I used the entire previous year. Obviously this isn't a perfect way of doing it, but it is better than not predicting Week 1 games.
Any ties in Expected Wins (there were one or two), I just didn't count.

So how did it turn out? I had to put the table after the jump (too wide), so hit the link to see the analysis.

Week	2001		2002		2003		2004		2005		2006		2007		2008		Total
Week	Win	Loss	Win	Loss	Win	Loss	Win	Loss	Win	Loss	Win	Loss	Win	Loss	Win	Loss	Win	Loss	Pct
1	8	7	8	7	9	7	10	6	6	10	9	7	6	10	8	8	64	62	0.508
2	7	7	12	4	7	8	5	11	8	8	11	5	12	4	9	6	70	53	0.569
3	7	7	14	0	10	4	9	5	10	4	10	4	9	6	9	7	78	37	0.678
4	8	7	5	9	9	5	10	4	8	6	7	7	8	6	5	8	60	52	0.536
5	9	5	8	6	7	7	9	5	8	6	10	4	11	3	8	6	70	42	0.625
6	7	6	10	4	12	2	10	4	10	4	5	8	8	5	6	8	68	41	0.624
7	7	7	5	9	7	7	7	7	9	5	6	7	8	6	7	7	56	55	0.505
8	9	5	10	4	7	7	8	6	9	5	9	5	11	2	9	5	72	39	0.649
9	11	4	6	8	5	9	7	7	11	3	8	6	9	5	10	4	67	46	0.593
10	9	6	8	5	7	7	11	3	10	4	9	7	6	8	11	3	71	43	0.623
11	11	4	13	3	11	5	12	4	9	7	10	6	12	4	11	4	89	37	0.706
12	10	5	9	7	12	4	11	5	12	4	10	6	13	3	8	8	85	42	0.669
13	10	5	10	6	10	6	10	6	14	2	11	5	11	5	10	6	86	41	0.677
14	10	5	11	5	10	6	14	2	11	5	12	4	14	2	10	6	92	35	0.724
15	11	4	9	7	13	3	10	6	10	6	9	7	10	6	8	8	80	47	0.630
16	8	7	10	6	11	5	11	5	8	8	9	7	12	4	11	5	80	47	0.630
17	9	6	10	6	9	7	7	9	8	8	9	7	8	8	9	7	69	58	0.543
Total	151	97	158	96	156	99	161	95	161	95	154	102	168	87	149	106	1258	777	0.618

As you can see, the overall average is 61.8%, which isn't too bad. My predictor from last season got 62.1% right, so they are very close together. As difficult as it is to predict NFL games, this is pretty good, and better than expected.
The best year was 2007 with 65.9% correct, pretty much 2/3 of the games. The worst year was 2008, where it only got 58.4% right. Still not bad, but you would have done poorly against myself and shake in predicting games.
Strangely enough, the best week of the season for predictions is Week 14 at 72.4%, including a 14-2 week in 2004. Some care to try to explain this one, because I'm stumped. I also expected Week 1 to be a low percentage, since it using data from the previous year. However, Week 7 was worse! Week 17 was also low, which is also expected, since some teams don't play their starters for more than 1 series.
The only perfect week was Week 3, 2002, at 14-0. Impressive.
I'll eventually get to the Against the Spread numbers (although I only have that data back to 2003) to see if they are any better/worse. I'm guessing worse, but it's just a hunch.

I'll be adding this into the Prediction Contest for the upcoming season, to see how it does in real time. I have to say, I'm surprised it's this good at predicting games. I was thinking it would be closer to 50/50, but I guess that's why you run the numbers.

Finding the Winning Factors - 3rd/4th Down Conversions

mgrex03 — Fri, 29 May 2009 01:26:47 -0000

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at a very common stat: 3rd/4th Down Conversions. I decided to combine both 3rd and 4th down as it gave better results than just 3rd Down Conversions, and 4th down by itself wasn't helpful at all. Here's how I calculated it:

(3rd Down Conversions + 4th Down Conversions) / (3rd Down Attempts + 4th Down Attempts)

I also threw around the idea of weighting short/middle/long distance conversions, but thought I'd keep it simple for now, and look to improve it later. If anyone wants to take on this challenge, let me know and I'll gather some data and send it off. The other challenge is perfecting my data-gathering technique for distance conversions. There's always room for improvement.

Let's get to the numbers:

The Overall Average Conversion Percentage over the past 8 years is 39.1%. This is actually a little higher than I was expecting, which is a good sign. Haven't said that often.
The Colts have taken back the throne of being #1 in this stat, converting at 47.7%. This is a full 3.6% better than #2 (Patriots). Whenever the stat is led by the Colts and Patriots, I think it's going to lead to a lot of wins.
Defensively, the Ravens have also taken back the #1 spot, holding opponents to 34.2%. Nothing surprising with this list. The Colts check in at #31, 42.9%. Only the Lions are worse. That's not good company to be in.
So how often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense? 1230-734-2, which is 62.6%. Anything over 60% here has been pretty good so far, so that's a good sign. Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 1305-807-2, which is 61.8%, which is a little worse than the offense. Looking good.
When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 745-247, or 75.1%. This ranks 5th out of 9 stats so far, smack dab in the middle. For now, it's a keeper.
The best game since 2001? Week 16 in 2008, where the Saints converted at 91.7% (11/12) against the Lions. I'm a little surprised there hasn't been a game with 100% conversion. Something to shoot for I guess in 2009. Best game for the Colts offense? Week 13 in 2007 against the Jaguars, where they converted 10/13 (76.9%), good for 9th best game overall. The Colts are responsible for 5 of the top 17 games, and no other team has more than 1 in the top 17. Have I mentioned the Colts have been really, really good at this?
The worst game since 2001? Well, there were two that went 0/13: Week 16 in 2002, where the Cowboys were awful against the Eagles, and Week 8 in 2005, where the Saints failed miserably against the Dolphins. The Colts worst game not involving Sorgi? One I attended in 2003, a 31-17 loss to Denver. The Colts were an atrocious 2/10. Yikes.
The Colts have played the most games when the defense is below average. In other news, water is found to be wet, and Man has landed on the moon. The Colts also have the best record when the defense is below average, so I guess it can't be all that bad, huh? To contrast this, the Colts have played the most games where the offense was above average, with the 2nd best record.
In KingRichard's 10 Things the Colts Must Do to Become Champs, he lists as #3:
The biggest problem with the defense last season wasn't that they were being run all over or getting burnt deep against the pass. It was the failure to stop teams on third down, no matter what the distance.
As we see from these stats, he's absolutely right, and improvement can lead directly to wins. Even just 2 more games of holding the other team below 39% (Colts average only 6 / season) should lead to 2 more wins. The Colts have only lost 4 times when both the offense and defense show up in the same game. More of these games would be fantastic, and almost automatic wins. This is where I hope the new defensive staff improves the most.

So what did we learn today? 3rd and 4th down conversions are, in fact, very important to winning. The Colts are far and away the best team in the league offensively, and have lots of room for improvement defensively. Here's to that improvement coming in 2009.

Here are the Offensive and Defensive Numbers...

Team	Offense					Defense
Team	3rd Conv	3rd Att	4th Conv	4th Att	Pct	3rd Conv	3rd Att	4th Conv	4th Att	Pct
Vikings	680	1680	65	126	41.3%	648	1648	51	112	39.7%
Falcons	664	1722	53	122	38.9%	638	1648	61	126	39.4%
Broncos	649	1658	62	124	39.9%	623	1670	59	119	38.1%
Giants	637	1694	41	119	37.4%	666	1750	60	133	38.6%
Chargers	669	1665	53	92	41.1%	657	1712	75	152	39.3%
Chiefs	663	1652	60	117	40.9%	648	1658	53	121	39.4%
Eagles	649	1719	41	87	38.2%	614	1795	58	136	34.8%
Jaguars	666	1712	88	163	40.2%	658	1696	52	124	39.0%
49ers	645	1724	57	115	38.2%	708	1738	69	116	41.9%
Seahawks	640	1673	47	98	38.8%	739	1809	56	112	41.4%
Packers	712	1724	51	105	41.7%	605	1695	66	140	36.6%
Rams	668	1697	78	137	40.7%	616	1616	51	105	38.8%
Jets	662	1661	52	117	40.2%	691	1694	80	137	42.1%
Redskins	654	1763	57	118	37.8%	639	1740	53	107	37.5%
Steelers	732	1754	63	127	42.3%	636	1718	53	128	37.3%
Raiders	615	1697	69	142	37.2%	679	1723	62	122	40.2%
Cowboys	656	1726	54	115	38.6%	640	1734	59	107	38.0%
Dolphins	631	1720	61	116	37.7%	652	1734	54	115	38.2%
Titans	661	1733	52	142	38.0%	600	1661	69	124	37.5%
Ravens	692	1844	58	114	38.3%	601	1779	51	125	34.2%
Saints	740	1749	63	143	42.4%	652	1673	54	105	39.7%
Bills	592	1654	68	143	36.7%	671	1692	68	127	40.6%
Bengals	704	1754	48	121	40.1%	682	1668	57	119	41.4%
Panthers	611	1726	32	89	35.4%	694	1795	55	115	39.2%
Lions	556	1685	64	150	33.8%	735	1712	54	94	43.7%
Colts	745	1591	58	92	47.7%	687	1627	74	145	42.9%
Patriots	739	1734	88	142	44.1%	658	1700	53	127	38.9%
Texans	524	1451	69	117	37.8%	581	1441	53	92	41.4%
Buccaneers	651	1754	52	101	37.9%	628	1740	48	111	36.5%
Browns	586	1665	52	118	35.8%	705	1764	64	136	40.5%
Bears	584	1789	70	143	33.9%	620	1819	57	132	34.7%
Cardinals	655	1741	64	128	38.5%	661	1662	61	119	40.5%
Total	20932	54511	1890	3883	39.1%	20932	54511	1890	3883	39.1%

Here are the Win/Loss records of teams when they go above/below average:

Team	Offense								Defense
	Above Average				Below Average				Above Average				Below Average
	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	70	14	0	0.833	27	17	0	0.614	54	7	0	0.885	43	24	0	0.642
Steelers	63	13	1	0.825	22	29	0	0.431	55	22	0	0.714	30	20	1	0.598
Colts	71	19	0	0.789	20	18	0	0.526	38	8	0	0.826	53	29	0	0.646
Chargers	43	22	0	0.662	28	35	0	0.444	43	19	0	0.694	28	38	0	0.424
Packers	45	26	0	0.634	30	27	0	0.526	50	23	0	0.685	25	30	0	0.455
Cowboys	41	18	0	0.695	25	44	0	0.362	41	32	0	0.562	25	30	0	0.455
Eagles	44	12	0	0.786	37	34	1	0.521	63	20	1	0.756	18	26	0	0.409
Ravens	36	21	0	0.632	35	36	0	0.493	53	30	0	0.639	18	27	0	0.400
Seahawks	38	18	0	0.679	33	39	0	0.458	48	11	0	0.814	23	46	0	0.333
Jets	38	25	0	0.603	24	41	0	0.369	34	16	0	0.680	28	50	0	0.359
Broncos	45	24	0	0.652	29	30	0	0.492	45	22	0	0.672	29	32	0	0.475
Rams	40	26	0	0.606	20	42	0	0.323	37	29	0	0.561	23	39	0	0.371
Dolphins	37	19	0	0.661	24	48	0	0.333	37	30	0	0.552	24	37	0	0.393
Panthers	34	14	0	0.708	30	50	0	0.375	37	26	0	0.587	27	38	0	0.415
Bears	24	12	0	0.667	45	47	0	0.489	50	30	0	0.625	20	28	0	0.417
Giants	36	18	0	0.667	32	42	0	0.432	44	25	0	0.638	24	35	0	0.407
Titans	33	22	0	0.600	37	36	0	0.507	45	25	0	0.643	25	33	0	0.431
Falcons	39	20	1	0.658	23	45	0	0.338	33	34	0	0.493	29	31	1	0.484
Buccaneers	42	19	0	0.689	24	43	0	0.358	48	34	0	0.585	18	28	0	0.391
Saints	39	38	0	0.506	21	30	0	0.412	42	25	0	0.627	18	43	0	0.295
Chiefs	42	26	0	0.618	17	43	0	0.283	41	26	0	0.612	18	43	0	0.295
Vikings	37	35	0	0.514	24	32	0	0.429	38	30	0	0.559	23	37	0	0.383
Bills	27	31	0	0.466	25	45	0	0.357	36	31	0	0.537	16	45	0	0.262
Jaguars	37	30	0	0.552	25	36	0	0.410	40	22	0	0.645	22	44	0	0.333
Browns	27	22	0	0.551	22	57	0	0.278	33	26	0	0.559	16	53	0	0.232
49ers	30	27	0	0.526	23	48	0	0.324	33	22	0	0.600	21	52	0	0.288
Bengals	36	33	0	0.522	18	40	1	0.314	34	25	1	0.575	20	48	0	0.294
Redskins	40	17	0	0.702	18	53	0	0.254	42	30	0	0.583	16	40	0	0.286
Cardinals	30	32	0	0.484	19	47	0	0.288	36	33	0	0.522	13	46	0	0.220
Raiders	31	26	0	0.544	14	57	0	0.197	33	35	0	0.485	12	48	0	0.200
Texans	22	29	0	0.431	18	43	0	0.295	26	26	0	0.500	14	46	0	0.233
Lions	13	26	0	0.333	18	71	0	0.202	16	33	0	0.327	15	64	0	0.190
Total	1230	734	2	0.626	807	1305	2	0.382	1305	807	2	0.618	734	1230	2	0.374

And finally, Win/Loss records when the offense is above average, and the defense holds the other team below average

Team	Above Average				Below Average
Team	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	35	2	0	0.946	8	12	0	0.400
Steelers	44	4	0	0.917	11	11	0	0.500
Jets	18	4	0	0.818	8	29	0	0.216
Packers	31	14	0	0.689	11	18	0	0.379
Falcons	17	10	0	0.630	7	21	0	0.250
Chargers	25	6	0	0.806	10	22	0	0.313
Giants	18	7	0	0.720	6	24	0	0.200
Ravens	26	7	0	0.788	8	13	0	0.381
Seahawks	22	2	0	0.917	7	30	0	0.189
Rams	24	9	0	0.727	7	22	0	0.241
Eagles	33	4	0	0.892	7	18	0	0.280
Jaguars	23	7	0	0.767	8	21	0	0.276
Bears	18	6	0	0.750	13	23	0	0.361
Broncos	27	6	0	0.818	11	14	0	0.440
Cowboys	23	7	0	0.767	7	19	0	0.269
Panthers	17	3	0	0.850	10	27	0	0.270
Colts	26	4	0	0.867	8	14	0	0.364
Buccaneers	31	6	0	0.838	7	15	0	0.318
Dolphins	21	9	0	0.700	8	27	0	0.229
49ers	19	9	0	0.679	9	35	0	0.205
Chiefs	27	8	0	0.771	3	25	0	0.107
Saints	28	12	0	0.700	7	17	0	0.292
Titans	21	9	0	0.700	13	20	0	0.394
Raiders	23	10	0	0.697	4	32	0	0.111
Cardinals	23	12	0	0.657	6	26	0	0.188
Vikings	22	14	0	0.611	8	16	0	0.333
Bengals	22	12	0	0.647	6	27	0	0.182
Browns	17	8	0	0.680	6	39	0	0.133
Bills	20	11	0	0.645	9	25	0	0.265
Redskins	27	7	0	0.794	3	30	0	0.091
Texans	12	10	0	0.545	4	27	0	0.129
Lions	5	8	0	0.385	7	46	0	0.132
Total	745	247	0	0.751	247	745	0	0.249

Finding the Winning Factors - Average Starting Position

mgrex03 — Sat, 09 May 2009 16:38:14 -0000

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at something that is easy to calculate, but often overlooked: Average Starting Position. There are a myriad of factors that play into this, most importantly Turnovers and Special Teams. Here's the (easy) formula:

Sum of Starting Positions / Total Drives

Let's get to the numbers:

The Overall Average Starting Position over the past 8 years is their Own 31.2 Yard Line. This number makes sense, as I was expecting around the 30 yard line.
The Colts didn't fare too well in this stat, as they finished 22nd, starting on average at the 30.9 Yard Line. Just below average, which is also about where I expected it to be, with our killer return game and all. So who was #1 in the NFL? The Bears, starting on average at the 33.2 Yard Line. I guess Devin Hester does play a big role on their team, even when not returning the ball.
Defensively, the Patriots are #1, forcing their opponents to start at the 29.6 Yard Line. How about the Colts? 14th, starting on average at the 31.0 Yard Line. That's better than expected, which is a pleasant surprise. Still room for improvement as well, which hopefully comes this year.
Now the important stuff: How often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense? 1214-652-3, which is 65.0%. That's pretty good. Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 1387-823-1, which is 62.8%, which is a little worse than the offense. That's the biggest gap between offense and defense we've seen so far. Still, a pretty good Win %.
When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 898-334-1, or 72.9%. This is middle of the pack for what we've looked at so far, so it is tough to tell whether it's that impressive. It's also not a big jump from the one-side Win %. I hope we get to a point where a stat that wins 75% of the time just isn't good enough. The Colts were the best team in the league when this happens, winning 93.8% of the time (30-2).
The best game since 2001? Week 16 in 2001, where the Buccaneers, on average, started at their Opp. 48.8 Yard Line against the Ravens. There have been only 5 games where the average starting position was in Opponents territory. I thought there would be more. Also, of the top 64 games (~45 Yard Line or better), there have only been 2 losses. That's excellent. Best game for the Colts offense? Week 6 in 2005 against the Rams, where they started, on average, at the 49.4 Yard Line.
The worst game since 2001? Week 9 in 2005, where the Falcons started, on average, at the 15.2 Yard Line against the Dolphins. Interestingly enough, the Falcons won that game 17-10. Everyone remember the beat down of the Ravens from last season by the Colts? The Ravens started, on average, at the 17.6 Yard Line. This was the best game by the Colt's defense over the past 8 years.
When you look at the tables below, you'll notice that in all 6 Win% categories, the Colts and Patriots are either #1 or #2. They are also the only 2 teams to be above .500 when being Below Average on both sides of the ball. Surprise, surprise, I know. It's just good to see it on paper.
The difference between the best team in the leage and the worst is only 3-4 yards, which is much smaller than I was expecting. Pretty much everyone tends to start in about the same position, on average. Along with this information, we shouldn't expect big jumps from year to year in terms of better field position. Just 1 or 2 yards is a very good improvement.

So what did we learn today? Predicting game based on Average Starting Position is pretty safe, and gets much safer the better the Starting Position. I'm certainly not going to dismiss it as a solid predictor.

Here are the Offensive and Defensive Numbers...

Team	Offense		Defense
Team	Drives	Avg. Start Pos.	Drives	Avg. Start Pos.
Bears	1612	33.21	1644	31.39
Ravens	1580	32.59	1606	31.56
Patriots	1480	32.57	1479	29.63
Steelers	1498	32.26	1482	31.09
Chargers	1503	31.78	1516	30.33
Jets	1409	31.77	1422	30.61
Eagles	1583	31.75	1567	30.60
Giants	1540	31.73	1548	31.45
Titans	1535	31.73	1523	29.89
Browns	1514	31.57	1507	32.22
Bills	1473	31.51	1482	32.07
Redskins	1535	31.48	1525	31.42
Buccaneers	1516	31.41	1522	30.44
Panthers	1576	31.25	1557	30.37
Jaguars	1467	31.16	1443	30.43
Dolphins	1528	31.13	1515	30.75
Seahawks	1518	31.04	1542	30.75
Saints	1513	31.02	1508	30.93
Falcons	1512	31.02	1501	29.67
Raiders	1491	30.99	1519	31.65
Cowboys	1543	30.94	1537	31.74
Colts	1376	30.91	1385	31.03
Chiefs	1494	30.84	1496	31.37
Bengals	1504	30.83	1498	32.50
Cardinals	1516	30.66	1529	32.15
49ers	1530	30.57	1508	32.67
Texans	1270	30.48	1278	31.26
Packers	1537	30.30	1552	31.85
Lions	1520	30.24	1520	30.86
Rams	1519	30.07	1507	32.30
Vikings	1503	29.73	1495	31.87
Broncos	1486	29.53	1468	31.49
Total	48181	31.20	48181	31.20

Here are the Win/Loss records of teams when they go above/below average:

Team	Offense								Defense
	Above Average				Below Average				Above Average				Below Average
	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	65	10	0	0.867	32	21	0	0.604	70	14	0	0.833	27	17	0	0.614
Steelers	51	10	1	0.831	34	32	0	0.515	57	14	0	0.803	28	28	1	0.500
Colts	45	7	0	0.865	46	30	0	0.605	54	12	0	0.818	37	25	0	0.597
Chargers	47	24	0	0.662	24	33	0	0.421	43	28	0	0.606	28	29	0	0.491
Packers	38	12	0	0.760	37	41	0	0.474	49	12	0	0.803	26	41	0	0.388
Cowboys	34	19	0	0.642	32	43	0	0.427	45	21	0	0.682	21	41	0	0.339
Eagles	50	12	0	0.806	31	34	1	0.477	61	19	0	0.763	20	27	1	0.427
Ravens	51	24	0	0.680	20	33	0	0.377	45	19	0	0.703	26	38	0	0.406
Seahawks	45	19	0	0.703	26	38	0	0.406	46	27	0	0.630	25	30	0	0.455
Jets	38	21	0	0.644	24	45	0	0.348	41	32	0	0.562	21	34	0	0.382
Broncos	34	16	0	0.680	40	38	0	0.513	52	19	0	0.732	22	35	0	0.386
Rams	30	17	0	0.638	30	51	0	0.370	36	28	0	0.563	24	40	0	0.375
Dolphins	37	21	0	0.638	24	46	0	0.343	42	31	0	0.575	19	36	0	0.345
Panthers	38	16	0	0.704	26	48	0	0.351	48	31	0	0.608	16	33	0	0.327
Bears	52	25	0	0.675	17	34	0	0.333	49	23	0	0.681	21	35	0	0.375
Giants	41	20	0	0.672	27	40	0	0.403	48	24	0	0.667	20	36	0	0.357
Titans	40	20	0	0.667	30	38	0	0.441	55	31	0	0.640	15	27	0	0.357
Falcons	33	20	1	0.620	29	45	0	0.392	51	30	0	0.630	11	35	1	0.245
Buccaneers	44	14	0	0.759	22	48	0	0.314	45	21	0	0.682	21	41	0	0.339
Saints	35	19	0	0.648	25	49	0	0.338	47	32	0	0.595	13	36	0	0.265
Chiefs	35	22	0	0.614	24	47	0	0.338	33	32	0	0.508	26	37	0	0.413
Vikings	30	15	0	0.667	31	52	0	0.373	40	25	0	0.615	21	42	0	0.333
Bills	32	26	0	0.552	20	50	0	0.286	37	30	0	0.552	15	46	0	0.246
Jaguars	38	26	0	0.594	24	40	0	0.375	46	27	0	0.630	16	39	0	0.291
Browns	32	34	0	0.485	17	45	0	0.274	27	27	0	0.500	22	52	0	0.297
49ers	33	20	0	0.623	20	55	0	0.267	38	24	0	0.613	16	50	0	0.242
Bengals	31	25	1	0.553	23	48	0	0.324	29	26	1	0.527	25	47	0	0.347
Redskins	36	29	0	0.554	22	41	0	0.349	37	26	0	0.587	21	44	0	0.323
Cardinals	27	25	0	0.519	22	54	0	0.289	32	28	0	0.533	17	51	0	0.250
Raiders	30	28	0	0.517	15	55	0	0.214	34	31	0	0.523	11	52	0	0.175
Texans	23	25	0	0.479	17	47	0	0.266	26	33	0	0.441	14	39	0	0.264
Lions	19	31	0	0.380	12	66	0	0.154	24	46	0	0.343	7	51	0	0.121
Total	1214	652	3	0.650	823	1387	1	0.372	1387	823	1	0.628	652	1214	3	0.350

And finally, Win/Loss records when the offense is above average, and the defense holds the other team below average

Team	Above Average				Below Average
Team	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	52	5	0	0.912	14	12	0	0.538
Steelers	37	5	0	0.881	14	23	0	0.378
Jets	29	13	0	0.690	12	26	0	0.316
Packers	25	4	0	0.862	13	33	0	0.283
Falcons	30	7	0	0.811	8	22	0	0.267
Chargers	32	18	0	0.640	13	23	0	0.361
Giants	29	8	0	0.784	8	24	0	0.250
Ravens	36	10	0	0.783	11	24	0	0.314
Seahawks	32	11	0	0.744	12	22	0	0.353
Rams	20	9	0	0.690	14	32	0	0.304
Eagles	40	6	0	0.870	10	21	1	0.328
Jaguars	33	12	0	0.733	11	25	0	0.306
Bears	36	13	0	0.735	4	24	0	0.143
Broncos	27	11	0	0.711	15	30	0	0.333
Cowboys	28	10	0	0.737	15	32	0	0.319
Panthers	28	10	0	0.737	6	27	0	0.182
Colts	30	2	0	0.938	22	20	0	0.524
Buccaneers	29	8	0	0.784	6	35	0	0.146
Dolphins	30	17	0	0.638	12	32	0	0.273
49ers	23	7	0	0.767	5	38	0	0.116
Chiefs	21	12	0	0.636	12	27	0	0.308
Saints	29	11	0	0.725	7	28	0	0.200
Titans	38	12	0	0.760	13	19	0	0.406
Raiders	24	9	0	0.727	5	33	0	0.132
Cardinals	21	11	0	0.656	11	37	0	0.229
Vikings	19	7	0	0.731	10	34	0	0.227
Bengals	19	13	1	0.591	13	35	0	0.271
Browns	19	14	0	0.576	9	32	0	0.220
Bills	27	14	0	0.659	10	34	0	0.227
Redskins	22	15	0	0.595	7	30	0	0.189
Texans	16	15	0	0.516	7	29	0	0.194
Lions	17	15	0	0.531	5	35	0	0.125
Total	898	334	1	0.729	334	898	1	0.271

Stampede Blue Draft Prediction Contests - Results

mgrex03 — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 02:44:31 -0000

I apologize for taking so long to get the results up for the Draft contest, as a combination of work and life got in the way last week (I didn't think a 2 hour time change could have that much effect on you). But alas I'm here with the results.

First I'll start with the NFL.com First Round contest. Some people didn't use their SBNation name, so I'm not exactly sure who to congratulate, but Manning's Entry, whoever you are, was the winner with 1560 points, good for 174th overall. Here's the top 5, and you can find the rest on the league page on NFL.com:

Name	Points
Manning	1560
Colteyes	1200
colt44	1190
Bullard47	1170
Mr. NFL	1140

The other contest we ran was to predict every pick the Colts had in the draft. With a couple trades happening, it made it a little out of whack, but we still had a clear winner, hahasound. He/She had 23 points, winning by 5, thanks to correctly predicting Curtis Painter in the 6th round, and predicting Terrance Taylor would be drafted by the Colts, although in another round. Also getting picks exactly correct were:

bamock - Fili Moala
monstersbox - Austin Collie
Bullard47 - Terrance Taylor

Here are the full results, so you can laugh at how bad I did, and see who picked who where. Thanks to everyone for participating!

Name	Points
hahasound	23
monstersbox	18
Bullard47	18
bamock	16
jblaze9311	14
shake n bake	13
ColtsFanNChiTown	13
MrNFL	12
Memphis Red Dogs	12
ebpunkin	11
bohephus	11
Daveinindy	11
Colts Homer	10
bluevol03	10
J-Gao	10
scottishcoltsfan	8
colteyes	8
mgrex03	8
colts9318rock	6
Tsnyder	6

Draft Recap, Day 1

mgrex03 — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 00:55:03 -0000

Well, the first two rounds are in the books, and it seemed much more exciting than in recent years. I think the 10 minutes in between picks helped a lot (3 hours, 23 minutes for Round 1, a record), and there were plenty of WTF moments. I'm going to break down the league into 4 categories, with an overall best and an overall worst (like this one is tough):

Overall Winner (Tie):

Indianapolis: The Colts ranked 31st in rushing last year, and we all know that Addai needs a sidekick to split carries with to be effective. Polian went out and got the FBS leader in Yards last year, a guy who can catch the ball, and a guy who's got something between his ears. A great pick by the Colts. Then they traded up to get a much needed DT, who fits perfectly into the Tampa 2. We are all thrilled at how the draft turned out, especially since it was better than everyone else.
Philadelphia: Who would have thought that Jeremy Maclin would fall all the way to 19? The Eagles needed more help for Donovan McNabb, and he certainly got it with Maclin. A perfect fit for the Eagles. Add to that getting great value with LeSean McCoy, helping out Brian Westbrook, and the Eagles made out like bandits. Along with the fact this is entirely different to the philosophy of Andy Reid's previous draft, makes the Eagles Day 1 tops in the league.

Top of the League:

Atlanta: The Falcons filled a big need at DT with Peria Jerry, and got a great value with William Moore. Both will probably start right away. Great work by the Falcons, making it 2 years in a row with very good opening days of the draft.
Baltimore: The Ravens made a great move moving up to get Michael Oher in the first round. A position of need, with a player who could have gone in the top 10. Paul Kruger will also help the Ravens' sack numbers, which was the only thing lacking last season. Plus learning from Terrell Suggs won't hurt either.
Jacksonville: I hate to say it, but the Jaguars really improved themselves today, taking bookend OTs. This is key, as they will be facing 4 of the premier DEs in the league twice each. Nothing exciting here, but much needed for the Jaguars. Maybe they finally learned from all those mistakes?
Miami: Taking 2 CBs, at great value, who both fit the defensive scheme really well, is a great start to the draft. They also got another piece to their Wildcat package with Pat White. Should be very interesting to see how they use him. Very good so far for the Dolphins.
Minnesota:Getting Loadholt at 54 is a great value, and will anchor that OL for years. Harvin obviously had his issues, but putting him on the field at the same time as Peterson is scary to think about. The Vikings definitely helped themselves today.
New England: The Patriots trade around a few times, pick up 2 new secondary starters, a DL as insurance for Wilfork and Seymour, and an OT named Sea Bass. No surprise, as the Patriots are always good on draft day. Dammit.
NY Giants: I guess they don't need Plaxico after all? Nicks will fit in perfectly in NY, and they fill a need with Sintim at LB. Maybe a little out of place, but a great value pick. Getting Beatty at 60 was also great, as he can learn for a few years before being asked to step in and start. Great day for the Giants.
San Francisco: First, Michael Crabtree falls into their laps, then they trade away their 2nd rounder for a 1st next year (Panthers). Singletary must be pissing himself in joy. Great day for the 49ers.
St. Louis: The Rams get their starting LT of the future, and get a MLB as well, ready to learn from Spagnolo. Nothing sexy, but the Rams did really well today.
Washington: The Redskins only had 1 pick (shocking for a Snyder team), but they certainly made the most of it. Orakpo loved being drafted by them, and is a great value at 13. He'll fit in quite nicely next to Haynesworth. I can't believe the Redskins are in this category, but they certainly are.

Solid First Day:

Arizona: Surprised nobody by taking Beanie Wells, who will fit in right away. Adding a pass rushing DE helps the defense, desparately in need of somebody who can do that. Nice work filling needs.
Cincinnati: The Bengals certainly don't shy away from players with problems off the field, do they? They took 2 very talented players, who could turn out to be very good, if they keep their head on straight. They could have been in the higher category, if not for those problems. Still, not bad for the Bengals.
Green Bay: Raji was a very good pick, and should step in right away and play quite a bit. They then moved back into the first round to get Clay Matthews, who I'm not entirely sold on. He'll fit well into their new 3-4 defense, but we'll see how well he plays in a new scheme. Overall though, a pretty good day for the Packers.
Houston: More building of the defense for the Texans. Cushing is a polarizing player, which puts this pick slightly into question. Barwin is a good, versatile player, but seems like he doesn't quite fit their scheme. We shall see though, twice next year.
New Orleans: The Saints only had 1 pick, and they made the most of it. Jenkins fits a glaring need in the Saints secondary, and should start right away.
NY Jets: I think they gave up a lot for Sanchez, but they got their guy. Sanchez is going to have a lot of pressure on him, especially being in New York. Only time will tell if this trade will work out.
Seattle: Seattle made this category solely on getting Aaron Curry. Putting him together with Totupu and ~~Peterson~~ Leroy Hill make the Seattle LB corps one of the best in the league. Picking up Unger is also a solid pick.
Tennessee: The Titans finally take a WR in the first round with Kenny Britt. I think this also puts to bed any Boldin or Edwards trade talks. Marks in the 2nd is questionable, but their DL coach is one of the best in the league, and will at least help fill the (huge) gap left by Fat Albert.

Ok, but could have been better:

Buffalo: I know they liked Maybin, but Brian Orakpo fell into their laps, and they passed on him. They better hope Maybin turns out to be a good player. They also took 2 Interior Lineman. Sure it is good value, but do they need 2 of them this high in the draft?
Carolina: Everette Brown kept falling and falling, and was saved by the Panthers. Good value, but giving up a first rounder next year, again, for him? That doesn't make sense. Taking Martin is a good pick, but doesn't make up for giving up a 2010 first rounder for #43 in the draft.
Cleveland: The Browns traded down 3 times in the first, including the big one with the Jets. Then they took Alex Mack (finally), which is an ok pick. He's a good player, but they have an established starter there now, and they need starters. They did pick Robiskie, which is a good pick that the locals will like. They then took another WR, and reached on a DE/OLB. They better hope they trade Edwards, or else taking 2 WRs, pretty high, won't make much sense.
Detroit: I struggled with the Lions. They got their QB, and got a pretty good safety, which is fast becoming a very important position in the NFL. While Pettigrew is a pretty good TE, they passed on a bookend OT in Oher. If they pick an OT with pick #65, they move up a category. But right now, I can't get over them passing up a talent like Oher.
Denver: The Broncos ended up with 5 first day picks, including a couple of reaches (Quinn in the 2nd?!). I picked Moreno in our Mock Draft here, but not at 12, at 18. Moreno will be a very good player, and it doesn't matter how many RBs are on the roster. Ayers is a good pick, but trading a first next year for Alphonso Smith? They better hope they are good next year. Iffy start to the McDaniels era.
Pittsburgh: There were multiple OL that would have made much more sense than a backup NT, especially one that many thought fit best into a 4-3 scheme. We all liked Hood here, and will be fine in that defense, but Roethlisberger needs some protection, and he didn't get it when he should have.
San Diego: I think the Chargers got sniped by division foe Denver, with them taking Knowshon Moreno, and took a bit of a reach in Larry English. He's a very good pass rusher, but they do have Merriman and Shaun Phillips already, who are pretty good. Maybe Merriman isn't really ready to come back?

What the hell were they thinking:

Kansas City: There was a lot of talk about Tyson Jackson skyrocketing up draft boards Thursday and Friday, and I guess they were all right. I understand the fit, but taking their 2nd Top 5 DL in as many years? When a much better player in Curry is still there? Doesn't make any sense.
Tampa Bay: They can thank Al Davis for being completely clueless, or else Tampa would have had the worst draft. Trading up to get their 4th QB? Especially one who many draftniks have serious concerns about? Bad start to the Raheem Morris era.

Al Davis is really out of touch:

Oakland: Do I really have to explain this? Passed on far and away best WR (Crabtree) to take the "fast" guy in Heyward-Bey, then took a guy that Kiper had listed as a 5th rounder, NFLDraftScout had as a 6th, and Mayock had as a 7th rounder. But guess what? Mitchell can run a sub 4.4 40.

Final Reminder: Stampede Blue Draft Prediction Contests

mgrex03 — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 17:10:40 -0000

Final Reminder: Stampede Blue Draft Prediction Contests

Last chance to get in the Prediction Contests! I'll be (hopefully) updating standings live throughout the first round, so make sure to stay tuned to the Open Threads for updates.

Finding the Winning Factors - Yards per Carry

mgrex03 — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 02:04:01 -0000

This week in the Finding the Winning Factors series, let's take a look at a very conventional stat: Yards per Carry. Everyone uses this stat to show how well a running game is, so let's find out if all the "experts" are right. Here's the (simple) formula:

Rushing Yards / Rushing Attempts

Let's get to the numbers:

The Overall Average over the past 8 years is 4.13 Yds/Carry. I figured it to be over 4, so this seems about right.
I've finally found a stat that the Colts were not #1 in, as they finished 26th at 3.89 Yds/Carry. Yikes. But guess what? The Colts are still better than the Patriots (barely). So who was #1 in the NFL? The Vikings at 4.64 Yds/Carry. That's pretty good, and makes sense that it would be the Vikings.
Defensively, the Ravens are #1 (again) at 3.45 Yds/Carry. The Cowboys finishing 4th surprises me a little. Who knew they stopped the run so well? How about the Colts? 30th at 4.49 Yds/Carry. Only the Rams and Chiefs have been worse. But we knew all this already. The Colts really haven't stopped the run.
Now the important stuff: How often do teams win when they are Above Average on Offense? 955-855-2, which is 52.8%. This is the worst stat so far. Who'd have thought that? Having an Above Average defense produces a record of 1184-1082-2, which is 52.2%, pretty much the same as the offense. Anyone else like this, because I sure don't.
When both the Offense and Defense are Above Average, their record is 548-448, or 55.0%. This is not much better than just one side of the ball, and the worst we've seen so far (RB Success Rate was 59%)
The best game since 2001? Week 12 in 2008, where the Chiefs averaged huge 12.23 Yds/Carry against the Bills. Guess what? The Chiefs lost 54-31. That game that was the lowest of the low in 2006? 6th best game at 8.93 Yds/Carry. Unfortunately for the Colts, the defense was in 3 of the top 5 games, and 5 of the top 11. Best game for the Colts offense? Week 15 in 2001 against the Jets (29-28 loss), when they had 7.39 Yds/Carry.
The worst game since 2001? Week 10 in 2007, where the Lions averaged -2.25 Yds/Carry against the Cardinals. That is 8 carries, -18 yards. The Lions had the 2nd worst game as well, at -0.30 Yds/Carry. These were the only 2 games that had negative yards per carry.
The only team that had less games where both sides were above average than the Colts was the Texans, and they had 1 less season. Needless to say, the Colts didn't have this happen very often. On the flip side, they had the most games where both sides were below average at almost 6 games per season. But as we've seen, it really didn't matter in terms of wins.
When the Colts defense was Above Average (held teams under 4.1 Yds/Carry), they had the best record in the league, winning 77.4% of the time. This is slightly better than the offense when they are above average, as they won 73.9% of the time, good for 3rd best in the league.

So what did we learn today? You shouldn't use Yards per Carry if you want to predict football games. This further lends credence that a Above Average passing game is much more valuable than an Above Average running game.

Here are the Offensive and Defensive Numbers...

Team	Offense			Defense
Team	Rush Yds	Rush Atts	Yds/Carry	Rush Yds	Rush Atts	Yds/Carry
Vikings	16541	3565	4.64	13091	3253	4.02
Falcons	18199	3934	4.63	15786	3554	4.44
Broncos	17615	3861	4.56	13893	3321	4.18
Giants	16146	3616	4.47	14012	3510	3.99
Chargers	16578	3736	4.44	13083	3329	3.93
Chiefs	16187	3648	4.44	16515	3596	4.59
Eagles	14739	3323	4.44	14540	3564	4.08
Jaguars	16277	3717	4.38	13344	3507	3.80
49ers	15153	3531	4.29	14281	3613	3.95
Seahawks	15547	3670	4.24	15034	3575	4.21
Packers	14509	3463	4.19	14933	3468	4.31
Rams	13068	3176	4.11	16173	3586	4.51
Jets	14466	3524	4.10	15930	3813	4.18
Redskins	15621	3816	4.09	14010	3534	3.96
Steelers	16915	4144	4.08	11120	3065	3.63
Raiders	13494	3336	4.04	17045	3975	4.29
Cowboys	14969	3705	4.04	13326	3417	3.90
Dolphins	14349	3558	4.03	14552	3713	3.92
Titans	15287	3802	4.02	13254	3267	4.06
Ravens	15754	3919	4.02	11771	3407	3.45
Saints	13586	3382	4.02	15939	3621	4.40
Bills	13621	3439	3.96	15864	3741	4.24
Bengals	13883	3515	3.95	15485	3702	4.18
Panthers	14230	3615	3.94	14465	3638	3.98
Lions	11210	2876	3.90	16344	3874	4.22
Colts	13519	3472	3.89	16331	3634	4.49
Patriots	14650	3767	3.89	13440	3302	4.07
Texans	11815	3043	3.88	14348	3267	4.39
Buccaneers	13123	3396	3.86	14044	3586	3.92
Browns	12637	3291	3.84	17694	4008	4.41
Bears	13493	3578	3.77	13994	3558	3.93
Cardinals	11573	3212	3.60	15113	3632	4.16
Total	468754	113630	4.13	468754	113630	4.13

Here are the Win/Loss records of teams when they go above/below average:

Team	Offense								Defense
	Above Average				Below Average				Above Average				Below Average
	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	38	13	0	0.745	59	18	0	0.766	56	19	0	0.747	41	12	0	0.774
Steelers	44	10	1	0.809	41	32	0	0.562	60	28	0	0.682	25	14	1	0.638
Colts	34	12	0	0.739	57	25	0	0.695	41	12	0	0.774	50	25	0	0.667
Chargers	37	25	0	0.597	34	32	0	0.515	44	36	0	0.550	27	21	0	0.563
Packers	35	24	0	0.593	40	29	0	0.580	37	22	0	0.627	38	31	0	0.551
Cowboys	32	24	0	0.571	34	38	0	0.472	44	38	0	0.537	22	24	0	0.478
Eagles	48	23	0	0.676	33	23	1	0.588	39	31	1	0.556	42	15	0	0.737
Ravens	26	24	0	0.520	45	33	0	0.577	47	48	0	0.495	24	9	0	0.727
Seahawks	39	25	0	0.609	32	32	0	0.500	42	26	0	0.618	29	31	0	0.483
Jets	29	23	0	0.558	33	43	0	0.434	35	35	0	0.500	27	31	0	0.466
Broncos	47	29	0	0.618	27	25	0	0.519	40	29	0	0.580	34	25	0	0.576
Rams	34	24	0	0.586	26	44	0	0.371	28	28	0	0.500	32	40	0	0.444
Dolphins	31	27	0	0.534	30	40	0	0.429	38	41	0	0.481	23	26	0	0.469
Panthers	27	22	0	0.551	37	42	0	0.468	45	38	0	0.542	19	26	0	0.422
Bears	21	19	0	0.525	48	40	0	0.545	42	32	0	0.568	28	26	0	0.519
Giants	37	35	0	0.514	31	25	0	0.554	39	37	0	0.513	29	23	0	0.558
Titans	28	23	0	0.549	42	35	0	0.545	43	26	0	0.623	27	32	0	0.458
Falcons	37	37	1	0.500	25	28	0	0.472	29	27	0	0.518	33	38	1	0.465
Buccaneers	26	21	0	0.553	40	41	0	0.494	45	42	0	0.517	21	20	0	0.512
Saints	25	23	0	0.521	35	45	0	0.438	29	33	0	0.468	31	35	0	0.470
Chiefs	34	39	0	0.466	25	30	0	0.455	30	24	0	0.556	29	45	0	0.392
Vikings	37	41	0	0.474	24	26	0	0.480	39	37	0	0.513	22	30	0	0.423
Bills	20	35	0	0.364	32	41	0	0.438	26	39	0	0.400	26	37	0	0.413
Jaguars	32	39	0	0.451	30	27	0	0.526	42	41	0	0.506	20	25	0	0.444
Browns	18	26	0	0.409	31	53	0	0.369	24	39	0	0.381	25	40	0	0.385
49ers	30	34	0	0.469	23	41	0	0.359	33	42	0	0.440	21	32	0	0.396
Bengals	26	29	0	0.473	28	44	1	0.390	32	38	1	0.458	22	35	0	0.386
Redskins	27	27	0	0.500	31	43	0	0.419	40	34	0	0.541	18	36	0	0.333
Cardinals	12	25	0	0.324	37	54	0	0.407	32	38	0	0.457	17	41	0	0.293
Raiders	19	34	0	0.358	26	49	0	0.347	26	37	0	0.413	19	46	0	0.292
Texans	11	26	0	0.297	29	46	0	0.387	14	36	0	0.280	26	36	0	0.419
Lions	14	37	0	0.275	17	60	0	0.221	23	49	0	0.319	8	48	0	0.143
Total	955	855	2	0.528	1082	1184	2	0.478	1184	1082	2	0.522	855	955	2	0.472

And finally, Win/Loss records when the offense is above average, and the defense holds the other team below average

Team	Above Average				Below Average
Team	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct	Win	Loss	Tie	Pct
Patriots	23	8	0	0.742	26	7	0	0.788
Steelers	28	7	0	0.800	9	11	0	0.450
Jets	15	12	0	0.556	13	20	0	0.394
Packers	18	8	0	0.692	21	15	0	0.583
Falcons	17	16	0	0.515	13	17	0	0.433
Chargers	24	13	0	0.649	14	9	0	0.609
Giants	19	23	0	0.452	11	11	0	0.500
Ravens	15	19	0	0.441	13	4	0	0.765
Seahawks	22	13	0	0.629	12	19	0	0.387
Rams	14	10	0	0.583	12	26	0	0.316
Eagles	24	15	0	0.615	18	7	0	0.720
Jaguars	20	24	0	0.455	8	10	0	0.444
Bears	14	8	0	0.636	21	15	0	0.583
Broncos	26	14	0	0.650	13	10	0	0.565
Cowboys	20	13	0	0.606	10	13	0	0.435
Panthers	19	12	0	0.613	11	16	0	0.407
Colts	13	5	0	0.722	29	18	0	0.617
Buccaneers	20	15	0	0.571	15	14	0	0.517
Dolphins	22	16	0	0.579	14	15	0	0.483
49ers	21	20	0	0.512	12	18	0	0.400
Chiefs	17	18	0	0.486	12	24	0	0.333
Saints	10	12	0	0.455	16	24	0	0.400
Titans	18	10	0	0.643	17	19	0	0.472
Raiders	9	16	0	0.360	9	28	0	0.243
Cardinals	9	11	0	0.450	14	27	0	0.341
Vikings	26	22	0	0.542	11	11	0	0.500
Bengals	15	17	0	0.469	11	23	0	0.324
Browns	8	14	0	0.364	15	28	0	0.349
Bills	11	17	0	0.393	17	19	0	0.472
Redskins	18	10	0	0.643	9	19	0	0.321
Texans	4	13	0	0.235	19	23	0	0.452
Lions	9	17	0	0.346	3	28	0	0.097
Total	548	448	0	0.550	448	548	0	0.450

Reminder: Stampede Blue Draft Prediction Contest

mgrex03 — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 22:33:44 -0000

Reminder: Stampede Blue Draft Prediction Contest

Make sure to sign up for the Draft Prediction contest. Word on the street is that Big Cat Country is doing the same thing, and have more people signed up than us. Let's change that.