SB Nation User Blog: mgrex03

Winning Stats Power Rankings - Week 15

mgrex03 — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 04:12:56 -0000

It's time once again for our weekly installment of Power Rankings based on the Winning Stats. There wasn't much movement at the top of the rankings, with the Saints maintaining the top spot, followed by the Patriots, Vikings, and Colts.

Follow me after the jump for the full rankings, Strength of Schedule, and Consistency...

Power Rankings (click on headers to sort):

Team	Power Rankings
	Non-Adjusted			Adjusted
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Saints	1	6	1	3	8	1
Patriots	3	12	4	2	10	2
Vikings	5	3	2	5	9	3
Colts	2	21	5	1	18	4
Packers	8	2	3	8	3	5
Ravens	11	8	6	12	5	6
Bengals	15	4	8	15	6	7
Giants	10	19	14	11	12	8
Dolphins	12	18	16	10	15	9
Eagles	14	7	9	16	7	10
Jets	21	1	13	22	1	11
Cowboys	6	17	10	7	24	12
Steelers	9	11	7	9	20	13
Broncos	18	10	15	20	4	14
Texans	13	14	12	13	14	15
Chargers	4	26	11	4	30	16
Cardinals	20	9	18	18	11	17
Redskins	17	15	17	17	19	18
Falcons	7	31	21	6	31	19
Titans	19	24	22	19	22	20
49ers	25	5	20	27	2	21
Jaguars	16	27	19	14	28	22
Panthers	24	20	24	23	16	23
Bears	22	22	25	21	23	24
Seahawks	23	16	23	26	17	25
Bills	28	13	26	28	13	26
Chiefs	29	23	27	31	21	27
Buccaneers	30	25	29	30	25	28
Lions	27	32	30	24	29	29
Rams	26	30	28	25	32	30
Browns	31	29	32	29	27	31
Raiders	32	28	31	32	26	32

A few thoughts:

Like I mentioned, the Colts are 4th in the Adjusted Power Rankings, ranking 1st Offensively, and 18th Defensively. The Colts probably won't get much higher, especially playing without some key players in the last 3 games.
Based on these rankings, the teams I'd like the Colts to play in the Playoffs are this week's opponent, Jacksonville (22nd), and San Diego (16th). A loss this week might not be all that bad for this exact reason.
Speaking of the Chargers, they have the 3rd worst defense in the NFL. But some writers say you shouldn't laugh when they are called the best team in the NFL.
The Dolphins have played a tough schedule, and look much better statistically when you adjust for that tough schedule (16th vs. 9th). If you had told me Chad Henne would be the QB for most of the season with those numbers, I would have laughed in your face.

Strength of Schedule:

Team	Schedule Strength
	Past			Future
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Buccaneers	2	3	1	10	11	7
Patriots	1	13	2	12	23	22
Browns	5	4	3	30	29	31
Dolphins	9	5	4	20	7	13
Falcons	3	10	5	1	31	16
Lions	8	6	6	7	25	21
Titans	20	2	7	31	14	25
Panthers	12	8	8	6	1	1
Colts	7	12	9	2	28	18
Ravens	21	7	10	32	30	32
Broncos	30	1	11	24	21	27
Raiders	14	11	12	18	26	26
Bills	4	23	13	28	2	9
Jets	15	15	14	26	4	12
Rams	13	16	15	11	22	20
49ers	28	9	16	29	24	29
Giants	24	17	17	3	10	3
Bears	18	19	18	15	6	4
Texans	11	22	19	21	13	19
Bengals	16	24	20	8	12	11
Jaguars	6	27	21	23	5	10
Chiefs	31	14	22	14	32	28
Saints	25	20	23	22	16	23
Cardinals	17	25	24	25	27	30
Seahawks	29	21	25	13	19	17
Cowboys	22	26	26	16	3	2
Eagles	32	18	27	4	15	5
Vikings	19	30	28	5	17	8
Chargers	10	32	29	9	9	6
Redskins	26	28	30	27	8	15
Packers	27	29	31	19	20	24
Steelers	23	31	32	17	18	14

A couple things:

The Colts have played the 9th toughest schedule in the league so far, and it won't get too much easier for the rest of the season. Where is that other undefeated team? 23rd.
The Steelers have absolutely no excuse for losing 5 games in a row, and being 6-7, as they have had the easiest schedule in the league. Maybe they need the high level of competition to actually win games, like they had last year.
I'd say the Broncos and Ravens are in the Driver's seat for the 2 Wild Card spots, seeing as they have the easiest schedules going forward. In the NFC I think the Packers will keep the spot they currently enjoy as a Wild Card team.

Consistency:

Team	Consistency
	Non-Adjusted			Adjusted
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Colts	2	11	2	1	12	1
Eagles	13	17	3	12	5	2
Cowboys	8	3	6	2	7	3
Chiefs	5	25	18	6	15	4
Panthers	25	5	4	17	1	5
49ers	1	24	17	3	24	6
Falcons	9	14	12	9	16	7
Buccaneers	20	2	10	20	11	8
Bears	10	29	22	5	31	9
Lions	23	1	11	18	6	10
Texans	11	23	16	10	20	11
Redskins	17	6	1	23	4	12
Cardinals	28	12	13	24	23	13
Vikings	4	10	7	11	8	14
Rams	21	9	9	27	2	15
Packers	12	15	24	13	17	16
Saints	3	19	5	7	25	17
Browns	30	16	21	21	26	18
Dolphins	19	13	14	30	22	19
Ravens	29	22	30	26	3	20
Chargers	7	27	23	8	27	21
Raiders	15	21	15	14	30	22
Bills	27	18	20	29	10	23
Steelers	16	4	8	19	21	24
Patriots	6	32	25	4	32	25
Seahawks	22	20	27	15	14	26
Giants	18	31	29	16	29	27
Jets	31	30	28	31	28	28
Bengals	14	7	19	25	13	29
Jaguars	26	8	26	28	9	30
Titans	32	26	31	32	18	31
Broncos	24	28	32	22	19	32

My thoughts:

The Colts continue to be the most consistent team in the league, besting the Eagles and Cowboys. I'm still not surprised by that ranking at all.
The Colts last 5 opponents of the season (Titans, Broncos, Jaguars, Jets, and Bills) are all in the ten most inconsistent teams in 2009. Not sure it says much, but it is interesting nonetheless.

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Results Week 14, Link for Week 15

mgrex03 — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:04:56 -0000

We're into the home stretch of the season now, and it took this long for me to have a monster week picking games. Unfortunately for me, I still didn't get enough games right to be a weekly winner. I did pick one of the two upsets:

Cleveland over Pittsburgh: 7/61
San Francisco over Arizona: 6/61

In the Against the Spread contest, we had 1 winner, who got 14/16 games correct! - el_conquistador. That is the highest weekly total so far this season, so Congratulations! The leaderboard after Week 14 looks like this:

Against the Spread
Name	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Week 13	Week 14	Total
bluegirl	8	11	5	9	12	119
zkmavz	6	9	9	5	8	113
shoein	7	7	9	5	8	113
The Lawn Wrangler	7	8	5	9	9	111

bluegirl has opened up a huge lead with only 3 weeks to go. Nice work! In the Straight Up contest we also only had 1 winner, who got 15/16 games correct - crober. The only game he/she missed was the Monday Night game. This is also the highest weekly total in this contest as well. Congratulations! The leaderboard after Week 14 looks like this:

Straight Up
Name	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Week 13	Week 14	Total
JustinPugh	11	12	13	8	11	147
emiller17	9	11	12	10	11	144
shoein	11	11	10	9	8	144
oldecoltsfan	10	11	11	10	13	143
Gmachine!	11	11	3	11	13	143

JustinPugh boosts his lead up to 3 games with 3 weeks left. Should be an exciting finish.

Below you'll see the full leaderboard. You can place your picks for the Colts/Jaguars game here (only if you don't pick all the games before Thursday night), as well as the Saturday Night game (DAL @ NO). Also, I appreciate most of you picking Pittsburgh last week if you didn't get your pick in. Please continue helping me out. Thanks in advance.

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Picks Week 14

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Week 15, open until 1:00 ET Sunday

Against the Spread:

Name	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Week 13	Week 14	Total
bluegirl	8	11	5	9	12	119
Dave Richard - CBS Sports	9	6	10	6	11	117
zkmavz	6	9	9	5	8	113
shoein	7	7	9	5	8	113
Bill Simmons - ESPN	9	7	7	4	9	113
Clark Judge - CBS Sports	7	9	10	5	10	111
The Lawn Wrangler	7	8	5	9	9	111
torontocoltsfan	8	10	7	9	7	110
TouchdownMonkey	9	6	9	6	8	110
MrNFL	6	7	10	8	8	109
mgrex03	4	10	7	7	12	108
Road	6	11	6	6	7	108
shake n bake	7	11	8	10	8	107
Harmon Predictor - CBS Sports	6	8	9	7	11	107
Power Ranking - Adj	6	6	8	7	9	107
Underdogs	9	10	5	7	9	106
PB	8	7	9	7	8	106
bobzilla3	7	5	8	5	9	106
Cassieper	6	11	8	5	10	105
ColtsFanNChiTown	6	6	8	5	13	105
peytonsurdaddy	6	9	8	7	7	103
Power Ranking	6	6	8	7	10	103
Favorites	6	6	11	9	7	102
Shimn	6	8	8	6	11	101
Home	9	5	10	10	9	100
Pete Prisco - CBS Sports	7	11	8	9	6	100
Spin Predictor - CBS Sports	6	10	6	4	10	100
UnofficialPants	10	6	8	8	9	99
sandsaver01	12	6	7	6	6	99
kubladawn	0	11	5	9	12	99
emiller17	7	7	6	6	8	99
ColtsFanFromHawaii	5	10	7	11	9	96
Darth Ventura	5	7	9	9	11	95
Peter Madden - CBS Sports	4	5	9	7	12	95
PeytonUL18	7	7	9	5	8	93
Orren's Boy	8	6	4	4	7	91
passdinho	4	8	6	8	11	83
bohephus	5	10	4	5	7	71
misterC	9	10	0	8	8	69
JV1241	5	8	0	4	10	69
costragas	5	7	8	7	6	65
marvinindy	5	6	0	0	0	58
CarmelKevin	7	9	0	7	0	36
medicblue	0	6	0	8	9	23
el_conquistador	0	7	0	0	14	21
firstprime	0	8	0	0	11	19
JWilder	0	7	3	0	0	10
saurkrauter	0	0	0	0	10	10
fansince56	0	0	0	0	10	10
Radiato	0	0	0	0	9	9
jborgnini	0	8	0	0	0	8
Liffick	0	8	0	0	0	8
iu4life17	0	0	0	8	0	8
crober	0	0	0	7	0	7

Straight Up:

Name	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Week 13	Week 14	Total
JustinPugh	11	12	13	8	11	147
Sean Leahy - USA Today	9	13	11	10	14	146
Michael Silver - Yahoo!	10	13	12	10	11	144
emiller17	9	11	12	10	11	144
shoein	11	11	10	9	8	144
Favorites	9	12	14	13	9	143
oldecoltsfan	10	11	11	10	13	143
Accuscore - ESPN	8	12	11	12	11	143
Merrill Hoge - ESPN	11	12	11	8	12	143
Gmachine!	11	11	3	11	13	143
MrNFL	9	12	13	12	13	142
Coltsdude1000	8	13	13	9	11	142
Pete O'Brien - USA Today	6	11	12	9	12	142
Shimn	9	13	11	9	12	141
TouchdownMonkey	10	11	12	9	11	141
Nate Davis - USA Today	7	13	10	9	13	141
bluegirl	12	11	9	10	9	141
zkmavz	8	12	12	9	10	141
Ufanforreal	10	10	11	13	12	140
Gary Mihoces - USA Today	7	12	12	9	13	140
Charles Robinson - Yahoo!	8	13	12	9	10	140
Power Ranking - Adj	7	12	11	11	11	140
Chris Mortensen - ESPN	8	11	12	9	11	140
Mark Schlereth - ESPN	8	11	10	8	14	140
sandsnake	10	12	10	11	11	139
Mike Golic - ESPN	8	13	8	10	12	139
Jason Cole - Yahoo!	8	12	11	10	13	138
Jarrett Bell - USA Today	9	12	11	8	13	138
Power Ranking	7	12	11	11	12	138
piojocuau	10	10	9	12	11	138
Tom Pedulla - USA Today	8	13	10	9	12	138
Adam Schefter - ESPN	9	12	10	9	10	138
Seth Wickersham - ESPN	11	11	9	9	13	137
Eric Allen - ESPN	9	11	11	8	13	137
The Lawn Wrangler	8	10	10	11	11	137
Pythagorean	8	12	13	10	13	136
peytonsurdaddy	8	12	12	11	10	136
Cassieper	11	11	11	7	11	135
mgrex03	10	11	10	9	14	134
skywalker	10	12	9	9	10	134
bobzilla3	9	13	10	10	12	132
Jim Corbett - USA Today	8	12	11	9	11	132
PB	9	11	11	8	12	132
shake n bake	11	11	11	11	9	131
coltsgirl81	8	11	8	9	10	129
tim55	9	12	10	0	11	129
Indy Lori	10	10	14	13	10	128
Ron Jaworski - ESPN	8	11	10	8	10	128
sanders_murks_cats	11	13	0	11	11	128
peytonsthebest	10	11	11	10	0	127
kubladawn	0	11	11	11	13	126
Coltsfaninoklahoma1	11	10	0	9	12	126
PeytonUL18	9	11	12	9	11	125
Home	10	9	13	10	9	123
jedye	10	11	11	10	11	121
Skip Wood - USA Today	7	10	0	11	11	116
jammer6303	9	12	9	0	0	116
i9x	9	11	9	10	9	115
MarshallPlan	8	9	10	11	10	115
KrouseingTiger	9	13	12	0	13	115
Coin Flip	8	7	7	10	3	110
roggae	8	10	0	8	10	108
JV1241	11	11	0	9	11	101
bohephus	9	12	7	7	11	98
payne	10	10	0	8	9	96
EnSsRex	12	10	0	10	0	96
misterC	9	12	9	9	11	93
chano14	12	10	0	0	0	92
Mavericky	11	9	11	9	8	90
costragas	9	13	10	9	12	89
Road	5	7	3	6	7	85
marvinindy	8	13	0	0	0	82
JakeTheSnake	10	0	0	0	0	74
Heeringa	9	12	13	10	13	72
anitrimi	11	13	12	12	10	68
enjyinlife	12	10	0	10	10	66
diagenesis	0	10	8	11	8	65
Underdogs	6	4	2	3	7	65
arizonajason	0	10	8	11	11	56
ANGELSFAITH	10	0	0	0	0	52
jkwright6504	0	13	0	0	9	50
DnastyDM	0	10	0	0	0	50
jahren	0	0	0	9	0	46
onearmedboxer	11	0	0	0	0	40
dDogg	10	13	0	0	10	39
DontHateAddai	0	11	0	12	11	34
medicblue	9	12	0	10	0	31
JWilder	0	13	8	9	0	30
Z.Pain	0	12	0	0	0	29
Teddybear78	9	0	0	0	0	26
firstprime	0	10	0	0	13	23
Edge0914	0	0	0	8	11	19
fwcoltsfan	0	10	0	0	8	18
crober	0	0	0	0	15	15
Rellik	0	0	0	0	14	14
GuruBlue	0	0	0	0	13	13
mediblue	0	0	0	0	13	13
horseshoeboy1	0	12	0	0	0	12
Kiefsmom	0	0	0	0	12	12
npb1985	0	12	0	0	0	12
Bacalao	0	0	0	0	11	11
chewylettuce	0	11	0	0	0	11
INDYCOLTSROCK18	0	11	0	0	0	11
Percy Harvin My Fav!	0	11	0	0	0	11
saurkrauter	0	0	0	0	11	11
TheTealDeal	0	0	11	0	0	11
18yo44	0	10	0	0	0	10
davis3217	0	10	0	0	0	10
sandtiger812	0	9	0	0	0	9
coltsfan723	0	0	0	0	8	8
don	0	0	0	0	8	8
drewdahler	0	0	7	0	0	7
ladyhorse881	0	0	0	0	7	7
SEWL	0	7	0	0	0	7

Week 14: Inside the Numbers

mgrex03 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 20:25:25 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

This man better get paid next year. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Browse more photos »

Thirteen up, thirteen down in 2009, clinching the #1 seed in the AFC. However, this game against the Broncos had the feel of a blowout, changed to a game of frustration, but never really out of hand, to one of I knew they had one more drive in them. I'll dive into the reasons for this with the numbers, but first some history from the game:

(Elias via ESPN) For the first time in the regular season, the Colts won a game where Peyton Manning threw 3 interceptions. He was 0-11 previously. Elias forgot to mention the Playoff win against the Chiefs in January of 2007, where he threw 3 INTs, and the Colts won 23-8.
(Elias via ESPN):

The Colts-Broncos game featured a matchup of two of the most successful rookie head coaches in recent NFL history. Jim Caldwell (12-0 coming into the game) and Josh McDaniels (8-4) were only the second pair of first-year head coaches in the last 40 years to face each other both having a record at least four games above the .500 mark. The others were Bill Cowher of the Steelers (10-4) and Dennis Green of the Vikings (9-5) in 1992.
(P-F-R): The Colts and Saints became the 6th and 7th teams in NFL history to start a season 13-0. It's the second time the Colts have done it in the past 5 seasons. Along with that, the Colts have 114 wins in the '00s, tops for any decade in NFL history.
(P-F-R): Another game, another record for Peyton Manning. This time, he's tied Brett Favre and Dan Marino for most 4 TD games in NFL history, with 22.
Speaking of the #22...I think you know where I'm going with that. NFL record for consecutive games won. What I really want now, is a 3 game winning streak in January/February.

Follow me after the jump for my explanation of why the game was never really out of hand, even though it certainly seemed that way...

Here are the stats from Week 14:

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Off/Def Above	Off/Def Below	Record
DSR	75.8%	11	66.7%	17	Y	N	8-0
ANPY/A	3.929	21	5.841	20	N	Y	5-2
Turnovers	3	24	1	15	N	Y	4-4
Yds/Drive	26.00	17	27.46	19	N	N	7-0
ToP/Drive	2:22.8	26	2:25.2	8	N	N	3-1
Yds/Play	4.457	25	4.824	17	N	N	4-0
First Downs/Drive	1.75	13	1.54	18	Y	N	8-0
3rd/4th Down	58.8%	2	30.0%	10	Y	N	7-1
Avg Start Pos	29.9	20	33.4	21	N	Y	9-2
3 and Outs	7	28	4	14	N	N	6-1
RZ Eff	100.0%	1	60.7%	13	Y	N	5-1
Plays/Drive	5.833	9	5.692	23	N	N	3-4
Penalty Yds / Play	0.286	2	0.878	14	Y	N	8-3
RB Success	50.0%	13	41.4%	6	Y	N	5-3
Yds/Carry	3.29	24	3.17	6	N	N	4-3
Net Punts Yds/Game	41.60	9	41.50	22	N	N	3-2
Ranking - Week (32)	15		17		16
Ranking - Season (416)	233		170		199

My thoughts on the game:

On a macro-level, it was the most even game of the week, meaning a 12 point victory seems high for such a statistically equal game. But it was only equal because of how the Colts approached the game after going up 21-0:

The Broncos had all of 52 yards on 15 plays in their first 3 drives. After the Colts went up 3 TDs, the Colts defense went into the classic Tampa-2 mode: Keep everything in front of you, and don't give up the big play. Sure Marshall had all those catches, but it was because that is the way the Colts were defending him. BBS said it best:

Marshall caught 21 balls because the Colts kept tackling him after every catch. Down 21-0 after a little more than a quarter's worth of play, the Broncos had to use 28 total plays and well over 13 total minutes of clock time to score at total of 16 points on their three scoring drives. That is far to long, and far too many plays, when trying to overcome a 21-0 hole.
Again, vintage Tampa-2.

Consider this as well: How many offensive plays did the Broncos run where they could have tied/taken the lead in the game? Three, and they were on their first possession of the game. Even though it may have felt the game was out of hand, it wasn't.
After the Colts scored 3 TDs on their first 4 possessions, they went 3 and out 6 of the next 7 drives. That's atrocious and should never happen with this offense. On the one drive they got a first down, Manning immediately threw an INT on the 4th play of the drive. I kept telling myself throughout the game that they only needed one more drive to put the dagger in them. It just took 2 full quarters before it came.
Even with all those 3 and outs, the Colts still had a Drive Success Rate over 75%. The defense also held the Broncos below the league average (69%), which means winning at 91.5% this year.
Also, for the first time this season, the Colts were below average in ANPY/A. It coincided with the Broncos being above average, which means, based on this season, the Broncos had a 95.1% chance of winning. That's why stats can never tell a perfect story.
I mentioned in the game preview these defenses were prone to giving up long, time-consuming drives. The complete opposite happened, even though the Colts had 4 long drives, and 7 really short ones, which average to not a lot of time for each.
I also said that 3rd/4th down Conversions and Red Zone efficiency would be key to winning. The Colts dominated in these 2 stats on offense, and were good defensively as well. These were, in fact, the keys to the game.
Oh ya, and this:

Prediction? Colts 28, Broncos 16.

Season stats so far through Week 14:

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Best	Defense	Rank	Best	Record	Win %
DSR	78.8%	1	Colts	70.0%	21	Jets	86-8	0.915
ANPY/A	7.350	5	Saints	4.794	9	Bills	102-7	0.936
Turnovers	1.38	6	Chargers	1.92	7	Saints	92-24	0.793
Yds/Drive	37.57	2	Saints	31.11	24	Jets	86-11	0.887
ToP/Drive	2:46.4	13	Bengals	2:55.0	29	Packers	89-25	0.781
Yds/Play	6.109	3	Saints	5.007	9	Jets	85-17	0.833
First Downs/Drive	2.20	1	Colts	1.84	27	Jets	78-19	0.804
3rd/4th Down	51.8%	1	Colts	43.1%	28	Jets	82-17	0.828
Avg Start Pos	28.4	24	Bears	27.9	9	Cowboys	96-28	0.774
3 and Outs	2.77	3	Cowboys	3.46	23	Jets	63-22	0.741
RZ Eff	74.4%	3	Dolphins	57.8%	5	Redskins	64-34	0.653
Plays/Drive	6.150	3	Falcons	6.213	32	Packers	69-36	0.657
Penalty Yds / Play	0.582	2	Dolphins	0.885	6	49ers	73-41	0.640
RB Success	50.3%	8	Patriots	47.4%	19	Vikings	69-38	0.645
Yds/Carry	3.76	29	Titans	4.14	15	Ravens	47-46	0.505
Net Punts Yds/Game	39.22	19	Raiders	42.44	30	Patriots	38-45	0.458
Overall	2		Saints	21		Jets

A couple things here:

Lots of single digit numbers on the offensive side, although they've been passed by the Saints for the best offense (not adjusted for defenses, that is). Honestly the ANPY/A number is surprisingly low, especially after the first few weeks of the season. Manning was on pace for a record season, but has cooled off after facing some better defenses.
Defensively, I'd like the Drive Success Rate to be a little lower, as it is slightly below average. Just a little bit better would make a world of difference.
Turnovers aren't nearly the telling stat as they have been in the past. Along with the Colts turning the ball over 3 times and winning, so did the Patriots and Dolphins, just this week.

Statistical Preview Week 14 - Colts vs. Broncos

mgrex03 — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 06:14:00 -0000

Week 14 is upon us, and the Colts take on my hometown team, the Broncos this Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium. I want to start by looking at the (recent) history with the Broncos, and the almost complete domination by Peyton Manning and the Colts:

Throwing out the meaningless Week 17 game in 2004, the Broncos have beaten the Colts once in 7 games since 2002. I remember that game well too, as I was in the 14th row. Brackett had a Pick-6 in the first quarter, and it was all downhill from there. It was one of the rare games Manning and the Colts just forgot to show up (like the Packers game last season).
Two of the Colt wins came in the playoffs, and they were two of Manning's greatest games ever: 2003 where Manning won his first career playoff game with a Perfect Passer Rating, and a year later when the Colts were up 35-3 at half, and Manning had 361 passing in the first half.
The last matchup between the two teams was in 2007, a 38-20 win by the Colts. Former Bronco head coach Mike Shanahan decided he couldn't beat the Colts with his starters, so he benched them. BBS says it better than me:

Mike Shanahan was so terrified by what Manning would do to it that he junked his entire defensive scheme for the 2007 regular season game against the Colts and deployed a specific scheme just to beat Indy. He benched his starting DTs, inserted smaller but faster DTs, and hoped they'd be able to keep up with Indy's No-Huddle offense.

Enough about the history, let's get to 2009...

Here are the Adjusted Stats for the 2009 season for each team:

Statistic	Colts				Broncos
Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
DSR	79.5%	1	68.2%	15	66.9%	19	65.2%	3
ANPY/A	7.537	4	4.316	6	5.746	14	4.150	3
Turnovers	1.42	8	2.07	5	1.67	13	1.82	10
Yds/Drive	37.93	1	30.79	25	28.81	20	25.43	5
ToP/Drive	2:52.0	9	3:03.0	31	2:39.0	18	2:45.0	21
Yds/Play	6.216	3	4.845	6	5.163	18	4.478	2
First Downs/Drive	2.26	1	1.85	28	1.61	19	1.51	6
3rd/4th Down	51.0%	1	42.0%	27	34.8%	24	37.3%	10
Avg Start Pos	30.0	20	28.6	9	29.2	26	29.0	11
3 and Outs	2.35	1	3.51	21	3.61	13	3.68	20
RZ Eff	73.7%	4	57.5%	8	52.9%	30	52.3%	2
Plays/Drive	6.251	2	6.374	31	5.563	16	5.642	20
Penalty Yds / Play	0.611	2	0.895	8	0.750	11	0.697	28
RB Success	53.0%	1	44.9%	15	50.8%	6	49.6%	26
Yds/Carry	3.97	24	3.89	8	4.25	12	4.04	13
Net Punts Yds/Game	37.70	21	41.01	26	40.15	9	37.95	9
Overall	1		15		20		6

My keys to the game:

The Colts offense and the Broncos defense are both in the Top 5 of Drive Success Rate and Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt, making these two stats critical to victory. Whichever side comes out on top of these two stats should win the game. On the flip side of these two stats, the Colts defense is better than the Broncos offense, especially in ANPY/A. This needs to continue for a Colts victory.
Both defenses are below average at Time of Possession / Drive, so expect time-consuming drives. The Colts offense is best in the NFL at 3 and outs, averaging just over 2 / game. The Colts defense and Broncos offense have almost exactly the same number, so expect 3.5 Three and Outs.
The Colts defense hasn't been that great at stopping 3rd/4th down conversions this season, but the Broncos offense has been equally as bad at converting them. If they can't convert 3rd/4th downs, the Broncos won't win.
Lastly, it is Red Zone Efficiency. The Colts, both offensively and defensively, have been great this year inside the 20 yard line. The Broncos have done well on defense, but their offense is 3rd worst in the league. If the Broncos leave points on the field, they won't keep up with the Colts. It's been the story of quite a few Colts games this season. Expect it to be one again today.

Prediction? Colts 28, Broncos 16.

Winning Stats Power Rankings - Week 14

mgrex03 — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 04:16:12 -0000

This week in the Power Rankings, I've added a new way to look at how well teams have played this year: Consistency. It gives a pretty good look at how a team have played this year, and what you can expect the last 4 weeks on the year. I'll talk about what I found above the fold, but the full rankings will be at the bottom of the post:

The Colts, unsurprisingly, are the most consistent team in the league, followed by the Eagles and Cowboys. Anyone who is surprised by this clearly hasn't watched the Colts play this year. Saints? 20th.
This week's opponent, the Broncos, are the least consistent team in the NFL. In their 8 wins, they've had 7 in the top 101 games of the season, and the 8th was in the top 150. In their 4 losses? 306, 359, 351, and 353 (out of 384). Yikes. When they are on they are pretty good; when they are off, they really are bad.
If you look at non-defense adjusted numbers, the most consistent team is the Redskins. I said this measures consistency, not "goodness".

After the jump you'll see the full Power Rankings, Schedule Strength (Past and Future), and the Consistency Rankings...

Power Rankings (click on headers to sort):

Team	Power Rankings
	Non-Adjusted			Adjusted
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Saints	3	5	1	4	5	1
Patriots	2	12	4	2	11	2
Colts	1	20	5	1	15	3
Vikings	5	6	3	5	9	4
Packers	8	1	2	9	2	5
Bengals	12	3	6	13	8	6
Ravens	15	10	11	15	7	7
Steelers	6	11	7	7	18	8
Giants	11	17	13	12	12	9
Eagles	16	4	8	17	4	10
Cowboys	7	13	9	8	22	11
Cardinals	17	9	12	16	10	12
Dolphins	14	22	17	10	21	13
Broncos	18	7	14	20	6	14
Jets	22	2	16	24	1	15
Texans	13	18	15	14	16	16
Chargers	4	24	10	3	31	17
Redskins	19	16	18	18	17	18
Falcons	9	29	20	6	29	19
Jaguars	10	25	19	11	28	20
Titans	20	28	24	19	24	21
49ers	27	8	22	27	3	22
Seahawks	21	14	21	26	13	23
Panthers	24	19	23	23	19	24
Bears	23	21	25	21	23	25
Bills	29	15	26	29	14	26
Lions	26	31	29	25	27	27
Buccaneers	28	27	30	28	25	28
Chiefs	30	23	27	30	20	29
Rams	25	30	28	22	32	30
Raiders	32	26	31	32	26	31
Browns	31	32	32	31	30	32

Some thoughts:

The Colts are ranked #3 this week in the Power Rankings, which includes the #1 offense and the #15 defense. The defense needs to play well the rest of the season to leap frog the two teams ahead of them.
Even with the Patriots losing twice in a row, statistically they didn't look that bad, maintaining the #2 spot in the rankings. Not playing well this week will not be so kind to them.
Even though the Chargers have won 7 games in a row, they haven't been all that impressive doing it, especially defensively, ranking 31st in the league. That's what happens when you let Brady Quinn throw 3 TD passes against you. I know they have been the nemesis of the Colts the past 2 years, but they are the worst team they will win a division.

Schedule Strength:

Team	Schedule Strength
	Past			Future
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Titans	12	1	1	31	13	25
Buccaneers	6	2	2	8	11	8
Browns	2	4	3	32	28	32
Patriots	1	13	4	15	23	24
Dolphins	3	8	5	22	7	13
Lions	9	5	6	7	25	20
Ravens	17	3	7	30	30	31
Falcons	4	16	8	1	31	18
Rams	10	14	9	11	22	23
Colts	14	11	10	3	29	21
Raiders	15	12	11	19	27	28
Jets	22	10	12	25	4	10
Bills	7	18	13	29	2	9
49ers	28	7	14	28	21	26
Panthers	16	17	15	4	1	1
Texans	13	19	16	21	12	17
Broncos	30	6	17	24	24	27
Giants	27	15	18	2	9	3
Chiefs	31	9	19	16	32	30
Bears	19	21	20	10	6	4
Cardinals	24	22	21	20	26	29
Saints	20	24	22	23	14	22
Seahawks	29	20	23	14	20	16
Redskins	21	25	24	26	8	14
Jaguars	5	30	25	27	5	11
Cowboys	8	31	26	12	3	2
Bengals	23	27	27	13	15	12
Vikings	18	29	28	5	17	7
Steelers	25	28	29	18	19	19
Packers	26	26	30	17	18	15
Eagles	32	23	31	6	16	5
Chargers	11	32	32	9	10	6

A couple thoughts here:

The Colts have played the 10th toughest schedule so far, making their 12-0 record that much more impressive. The Patriots are the only team with a tougher schedule that even has a winning record, and they are 7-5.
Let's look at the Colts Week 14 opponent, the Broncos. Their offense has faced a very easy schedule (3rd easiest), but their defense has faced a very tough schedule (6th toughest). Their offense should get tested this week against an underrated Colts defense.
The Colts' future schedule looks to be lopsided, but overall manageable: Facing very good defenses, and not very good offenses. With Peyton Manning under center, I'll take that.
The Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, and Chargers all have tough finishing schedules, so making the playoffs isn't a sure thing for any of these teams, who have relatively easy schedules up to this point.

Consistency Rankings:

Team	Consistency
	Non-Adjusted			Adjusted
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Colts	1	11	2	1	13	1
Eagles	12	15	3	10	3	2
Cowboys	5	2	6	2	8	3
Chiefs	6	25	20	6	18	4
49ers	3	23	16	3	24	5
Panthers	27	7	4	21	1	6
Falcons	7	14	15	8	15	7
Lions	23	1	7	18	6	8
Buccaneers	17	3	14	20	12	9
Bears	10	31	22	7	31	10
Cardinals	24	13	11	19	25	11
Vikings	4	10	9	11	7	12
Texans	11	22	17	15	21	13
Rams	20	9	10	28	2	14
Ravens	29	20	27	23	4	15
Redskins	19	5	1	25	5	16
Browns	30	17	18	26	22	17
Steelers	15	6	8	16	23	18
Packers	13	19	24	14	17	19
Saints	2	16	5	5	26	20
Dolphins	25	12	13	30	19	21
Chargers	9	27	23	9	28	22
Bills	28	18	21	29	9	23
Raiders	16	26	19	17	30	24
Seahawks	22	24	28	12	14	25
Jets	32	28	30	31	27	26
Patriots	8	32	25	4	32	27
Giants	18	30	31	13	29	28
Titans	31	21	29	32	16	29
Jaguars	21	8	26	24	10	30
Bengals	14	4	12	27	11	31
Broncos	26	29	32	22	20	32

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Results Week 13, Link for Week 14

mgrex03 — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 02:28:34 -0000

It's time once again to find out how bad I am at picking games, and how good some of you are at picking games. This week we had a couple big upsets:

2/50 picked the Raiders over the Steelers.
8/50 picked the Dolphins over the Patriots.

In the Against the Spread contest, we had a single winner, and he/she is ColtFanInHawaii, getting 11 games correct. The trick must be to live in Hawaii. I can live with that. Leaderboard after 13 weeks:

Against the Spread
Name	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Week 13	Total
bluegirl	9	8	11	5	9	107
torontocoltsfan	6	8	10	7	9	103
zkmavz	6	6	9	9	5	105
shoein	6	7	7	9	5	105

In the Straight Up contest, we had 2 winners this week, getting 13 games correct:

Ufanforreal
Indy Lori

Congratulations to both of you! The leaderboard after 13 weeks looks like this:

Straight Up
Name	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Week 13	Total
JustinPugh	9	11	12	13	8	136
shoein	8	11	11	10	9	136
emiller17	9	9	11	12	10	133
bluegirl	9	12	11	9	10	132

We, once again, are tied at the top. Should be a great last 4 weeks to see the winner.

Below you'll see the full leaderboard. Remember there is a game Thursday night, and you can place your picks for the Steelers/Browns here or in the FanShot I posted earlier today (only if you don't pick all the games before Thursday night). Also, I'd appreciate it if you don't get the Thursday night game pick in, please pick the loser. It saves me a little work, and putting the winner won't get you the game correct.

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Picks Week 13

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Week 14, open until 1:00 ET Sunday

Against the Spread:

Name	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Week 13	Total
bluegirl	9	8	11	5	9	107
Dave Richard - CBS Sports	8	9	6	10	6	106
zkmavz	6	6	9	9	5	105
shoein	6	7	7	9	5	105
Bill Simmons - ESPN	8	9	7	7	4	104
torontocoltsfan	6	8	10	7	9	103
TouchdownMonkey	6	9	6	9	6	102
The Lawn Wrangler	6	7	8	5	9	102
Road	9	6	11	6	6	101
Clark Judge - CBS Sports	5	7	9	10	5	101
MrNFL	6	6	7	10	8	101
shake n bake	9	7	11	8	10	99
PB	8	8	7	9	7	98
Underdogs	10	9	10	5	7	97
bobzilla3	5	7	5	8	5	97
peytonsurdaddy	6	6	9	8	7	96
Harmon Predictor - CBS Sports	6	6	8	9	7	96
mgrex03	7	4	10	7	7	96
Cassieper	5	6	11	8	5	95
Favorites	3	6	6	11	9	95
Pete Prisco - CBS Sports	6	7	11	8	9	94
sandsaver01	8	12	6	7	6	93
ColtsFanNChiTown	7	6	6	8	5	92
Home	4	9	5	10	10	91
emiller17	6	7	7	6	6	91
UnofficialPants	3	10	6	8	8	90
Spin Predictor - CBS Sports	6	6	10	6	4	90
Shimn	3	6	8	8	6	90
Power Ranking - Adj	5	6	6	8	7	89
ColtsFanFromHawaii	8	5	10	7	11	87
kubladawn	6	0	11	5	9	87
PeytonUL18	5	7	7	9	5	85
Darth Ventura	6	5	7	9	9	84
Power Ranking	3	6	6	8	7	84
Orren's Boy	5	8	6	4	4	84
Peter Madden - CBS Sports	5	4	5	9	7	83
passdinho	7	4	8	6	8	72
bohephus	9	5	10	4	5	64
misterC	8	9	10	0	8	61
costragas	9	5	7	8	7	59
JV1241	9	5	8	0	4	59
marvinindy	9	5	6	0	0	58
CarmelKevin	0	7	9	0	7	36
medicblue	0	0	6	0	8	14
JWilder	0	0	7	3	0	10
firstprime	0	0	8	0	0	8
jammer6303	8	0	0	0	0	8
jborgnini	0	0	8	0	0	8
Liffick	0	0	8	0	0	8
iu4life17	0	0	0	0	8	8
el_conquistador	0	0	7	0	0	7
crober	0	0	0	0	7	7
diagenesis	0	6	0	0	0	6
banhouse	4	0	0	0	0	4

Straight Up:

Name	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Week 13	Total
JustinPugh	9	11	12	13	8	136
shoein	8	11	11	10	9	136
Favorites	7	9	12	14	13	134
Michael Silver - Yahoo!	9	10	13	12	10	133
emiller17	9	9	11	12	10	133
Sean Leahy - USA Today	9	9	13	11	10	132
bluegirl	9	12	11	9	10	132
Accuscore - ESPN	7	8	12	11	12	132
Merrill Hoge - ESPN	10	11	12	11	8	131
Coltsdude1000	7	8	13	13	9	131
zkmavz	9	8	12	12	9	131
oldecoltsfan	9	10	11	11	10	130
TouchdownMonkey	8	10	11	12	9	130
Charles Robinson - Yahoo!	8	8	13	12	9	130
Pete O'Brien - USA Today	9	6	11	12	9	130
Gmachine!	10	11	11	3	11	130
MrNFL	7	9	12	13	12	129
Shimn	7	9	13	11	9	129
Chris Mortensen - ESPN	8	8	11	12	9	129
Ufanforreal	8	10	10	11	13	128
sandsnake	8	10	12	10	11	128
Adam Schefter - ESPN	8	9	12	10	9	128
Nate Davis - USA Today	9	7	13	10	9	128
peytonsthebest	9	10	11	11	10	127
Mike Golic - ESPN	10	8	13	8	10	127
Gary Mihoces - USA Today	9	7	12	12	9	127
piojocuau	6	10	10	9	12	127
peytonsurdaddy	8	8	12	12	11	126
Tom Pedulla - USA Today	10	8	13	10	9	126
Mark Schlereth - ESPN	10	8	11	10	8	126
The Lawn Wrangler	8	8	10	10	11	126
Jarrett Bell - USA Today	10	9	12	11	8	125
Jason Cole - Yahoo!	8	8	12	11	10	125
Cassieper	10	11	11	11	7	124
Eric Allen - ESPN	10	9	11	11	8	124
Seth Wickersham - ESPN	9	11	11	9	9	124
skywalker	8	10	12	9	9	124
Pythagorean	7	8	12	13	10	123
shake n bake	9	11	11	11	11	122
Jim Corbett - USA Today	7	8	12	11	9	121
bobzilla3	9	9	13	10	10	120
mgrex03	7	10	11	10	9	120
PB	8	9	11	11	8	120
coltsgirl81	5	8	11	8	9	119
Ron Jaworski - ESPN	6	8	11	10	8	118
tim55	8	9	12	10	0	118
sanders_murks_cats	9	11	13	0	11	117
jammer6303	9	9	12	9	0	116
Power Ranking - Adj	7	7	12	11	11	115
Skip Wood - USA Today	8	7	10	10	11	115
Home	8	10	9	13	10	114
PeytonUL18	8	9	11	12	9	114
Coltsfaninoklahoma1	7	11	10	0	9	114
kubladawn	8	0	11	11	11	113
Power Ranking	7	7	12	11	11	112
jedye	0	10	11	11	10	110
Coin Flip	10	8	7	7	10	107
i9x	8	9	11	9	10	106
MarshallPlan	6	8	9	10	11	105
Indy Lori	7	10	10	14	13	118
KrouseingTiger	5	9	13	12	0	102
roggae	9	8	10	0	8	98
EnSsRex	7	12	10	0	10	96
chano14	6	12	10	0	0	92
JV1241	9	11	11	0	9	90
bohephus	10	9	12	7	7	87
payne	11	10	10	0	8	87
misterC	8	9	12	9	9	82
Mavericky	0	11	9	11	9	82
marvinindy	9	8	13	0	0	82
Road	5	5	7	3	6	78
costragas	10	9	13	10	9	77
JakeTheSnake	8	10	0	0	0	74
Heeringa	8	9	12	13	10	59
anitrimi	10	11	13	12	12	58
Underdogs	6	6	4	2	3	58
diagenesis	8	0	10	8	11	57
enjyinlife	8	12	10	0	10	56
ANGELSFAITH	7	10	0	0	0	52
DnastyDM	0	0	10	0	0	50
jahren	0	0	0	0	9	46
arizonajason	8	0	10	8	11	45
jkwright6504	0	0	13	0	0	41
onearmedboxer	0	11	0	0	0	40
medicblue	0	9	12	0	10	31
JWilder	0	0	13	8	9	30
dDogg	0	10	13	0	0	29
Z.Pain	0	0	12	0	0	29
Teddybear78	0	9	0	0	0	26
DontHateAddai	0	0	11	0	12	23
horseshoeboy1	0	0	12	0	0	12
npb1985	0	0	12	0	0	12
chewylettuce	0	0	11	0	0	11
INDYCOLTSROCK18	0	0	11	0	0	11
Percy Harvin My Fav!	0	0	11	0	0	11
TheTealDeal	0	0	0	11	0	11
firstprime	0	0	10	0	0	10
18yo44	0	0	10	0	0	10
davis3217	0	0	10	0	0	10
fwcoltsfan	0	0	10	0	0	10
sandtiger812	0	0	9	0	0	9
patndan	8	0	0	0	0	8
Edge0914	0	0	0	0	8	8
drewdahler	0	0	0	7	0	7
SEWL	0	0	7	0	0	7

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Week 14

mgrex03 — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 22:40:16 -0000

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Week 14

I'll have the Standings up tonight, but wanted to get this out for you to make your picks. Thursday's picks can go here, as usual.

Week 13: Inside the Numbers

mgrex03 — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:15:39 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

Where's that #18 jersey again? (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Browse more photos »

Sorry again for the week off last week. I finally have everything back to where it was, waiting to see if my data can be recovered from my dead hard drive. I think what I have is correct, so we're going with it!

We're in the home stretch now of the season, and the Colts just keep right on ticking. Sunday saw the Colts take it to the Titans once again, being extremely efficient on offense, and making the big plays on defense to get the Colts to 12-0, one win away from the #1 seed and guaranteeing the Road to Miami comes through the Circle City. A few notes from the game:

The Colts have now won 12 games in 7 straight seasons. Only 7 other franchises have seven such seasons in their history! The Cowboys come the closest in terms of straight seasons with 4. The all-time record is 11 by the Cowboys, followed by the Colts' 10.
It happened against the Texans, but Peyton Manning passed John Elway for 3rd all time in Completions. Elway did it in 7250 passes. Manning? 6420.
Again from the win against the Texans (via Elias):

The Colts rallied from a 17-0 deficit to post a 35-27 win at Houston. It was the fifth time that Peyton Manning led his team to a regular-season victory after trailing by at least 17 points, a new NFL record. (Manning and the Colts also won the AFC title game in January 2007 after trailing the Patriots by 18 points.)

For comparison, they mentioned on Sunday night that Brett Favre has never come back from a 14 point deficit. I'm just saying...
We all know that the Colts have now won 21 consecutive regular season games, tying the record set by the Patriots just last season. I'd really like the Colts to get one more.

The win over the Titans certainly looked very nice, but what do the numbers say? Let's have a look:

Here are the numbers from Week 13:

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Off/Def Above	Off/Def Below	Record
DSR	81.3%	4	76.5%	26	N	N	3-0
ANPY/A	7.838	11	5.182	13	Y	N	7-0
Turnovers	0	1	2	10	Y	N	9-1
Yds/Drive	39.78	6	37.50	22	N	N	3-0
ToP/Drive	3:00.1	7	3:17.9	29	N	N	6-1
Yds/Play	5.594	14	4.870	12	Y	N	5-1
First Downs/Drive	2.56	4	2.40	28	N	N	2-2
3rd/4th Down	64.3%	1	44.4%	23	N	N	6-0
Avg Start Pos	32.4	12	31.7	18	N	N	7-4
3 and Outs	3	11	1	30	N	N	3-2
RZ Eff	85.7%	3	48.6%	9	Y	N	5-4
Plays/Drive	7.111	5	7.700	32	N	N	4-3
Penalty Yds / Play	0.625	14	0.649	18	N	N	3-4
RB Success	55.6%	4	60.0%	32	N	N	3-6
Yds/Carry	3.26	21	4.30	21	N	Y	3-5
Net Punts Yds/Game	36.00	28	39.00	10	N	Y	2-3
Ranking - Week (32)	2		23		9
Ranking - Season (384)	15		278		115

Some thoughts:

It wasn't the greatest day passing the ball for Manning, but it rarely is against the Titans. Still above average though, along with the defense. Teams have rarely lost this year when they've done that (97-5).
3rd/4th Down conversions were key on Sunday, as the Colts had the best conversion rate in the league on Sunday, and the Titans missed a couple really big 4th downs.
Also key was Red Zone Efficiency. Offense ranked 3rd, Defense ranked 9th. Excellent job this week.
RB Success is very interesting this week. The offense were successful over 55% of their runs, good for 4th best in the league. That is fantastic against a defense like the Titans. But the defensive number is concerning: dead last. Now, I know the Colts held Chris Johnson in check the whole game, keeping him from breaking the long one. But he consistently gained yardage each time he touched the ball, which is what the defense needs to focus on. A 4.3 YPC is good, unless the other team actually gets 4 yards each time they run the ball: they'll march into the end zone.

Full Season Stats (12 games):

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Best	Defense	Rank	Best	Record	Win %
DSR	79.1%	1	Colts	70.3%	19	Jets	78-8	0.907
ANPY/A	7.655	4	Saints	4.699	8	Bills	97-5	0.951
Turnovers	1.25	4	Chargers	2.00	6	Saints	88-20	0.815
Yds/Drive	38.72	1	Colts	31.48	23	Packers	79-11	0.878
ToP/Drive	2:48.7	11	Bengals	2:58.0	32	Packers	86-24	0.782
Yds/Play	6.263	3	Saints	5.024	7	Jets	81-17	0.827
First Downs/Drive	2.24	1	Colts	1.87	28	Bengals	70-19	0.787
3rd/4th Down	51.0%	1	Colts	44.5%	30	Bengals	75-16	0.824
Avg Start Pos	28.3	25	Bears	27.4	7	Cardinals	87-26	0.770
3 and Outs	2.42	1	Colts	3.42	23	Eagles	57-21	0.731
RZ Eff	72.1%	3	Cardinals	57.5%	5	Redskins	59-33	0.641
Plays/Drive	6.182	2	Falcons	6.266	32	Packers	66-32	0.673
Penalty Yds / Play	0.610	2	Dolphins	0.885	7	Seahawks	65-38	0.631
RB Success	50.4%	8	Broncos	48.0%	19	Vikings	64-35	0.646
Yds/Carry	3.81	28	Titans	4.23	17	Ravens	43-43	0.500
Net Punts Yds/Game	38.95	22	Raiders	42.52	29	Patriots	35-43	0.449
Overall	1		Colts	20		Packers

A couple notes:

The Colts are, once again, the Best Offense in the NFL, leading in 5 categories, and Top 4 in 11/16 categories. These are all stats the Colts have excelled at in the past, so this should be no surprise to anyone.
The defense is still giving up the longest drives in the league, at almost 3 minutes a drive. They were doing great, but have struggled lately. Need to get this worked out before the Playoffs.
The Defense has been great forcing Turnovers, getting 2 / game. Fantastic. Also, the Red Zone Efficiency is great at 57.5%. To put this in perspective, the Colts offense is outscoring their opponents on each Red Zone trip by 5.0 - 4.0. NFL average is 3 RZ trips / game, so that is 3 points in the Colts favor, just from the Red Zone. Awesome.
This year, more than any other recent year, is defining the mantra: "Pass and defend the pass = Wins". 95.1% speaks for itself.

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Results Week 12, Link for Week 13

mgrex03 — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 16:07:32 -0000

I'm back in the saddle (sort of). I've successfully gotten the Prediction Contest back to its original state, but the Inside the Numbers probably won't be back until next week, with an outside chance of it being ready by Sunday morning. Sorry about that everyone, and you all should have backed up your computer twice in the past week.

This week, since I didn't recognize the Week 11 Winners, we'll be doing both weeks, so the winner gets his/her due for being a weekly winner. Let's start with the Against the Spread Contest: For Week 11 we had 4 winners who got 11 games correct:

bluegirl
Cassieper
shake n bake
kubladawn

For Week 12, we had only one winner, MrNFL, who got 10 games correct. Congrats to all of our winners from the past 2 weeks. Overall the leaderboard looks like this:

Against the Spread
Name	Week 8	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Total
zkmavz	7	6	6	9	9	100
shoein	6	6	7	7	9	100
bluegirl	7	9	8	11	5	98
TouchdownMonkey	9	6	9	6	9	96

Follow me after the jump for the rest of the winners and standings...

In the Straight Up contest, Week 11 winners got 13 games correct, and there's a whole slew of you:

Coltsdude1000
Shimn
bobzilla3
sanders_murks_cats
KrouseingTiger
marvinindy
costragas
anitrimi
jkwright6504
dDogg
JWilder

For Week 12, we only had 4 people get 13 games correct:

Coltsdude1000 (two weeks in a row!)
JustinPugh
MrNFL
Heeringa

Congratulations to all of our winners! The leaderboard after Week 12 looks like this:

Straight Up
Name	Week 8	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Total
JustinPugh	10	9	11	12	13	128
shoein	10	8	11	11	10	127
emiller17	8	9	9	11	12	123
bluegirl	10	9	12	11	9	122
Coltsdude1000	8	7	8	13	13	122
zkmavz	7	9	8	12	12	122

We have a new leader, and it's JustinPugh, taking a 1 game lead over shoein. They also separated themselves from the rest of the pack nicely.

Below you'll see the full leaderboard. Remember there is a game Thursday night (although I'll be watching the Civil War), and you can place your picks for the Jets/Bills here (only if you don't pick all the games before Thursday night). Also, I'd appreciate it if you don't get the Thursday night game pick in, please pick the loser. It saves me a little work, and putting the winner won't get you the game correct.

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Picks Week 11

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Picks Week 12

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Week 13, open until 1:00 ET Sunday

Against the Spread:

Name	Week 8	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Total
Dave Richard - CBS Sports	7	8	9	6	10	100
zkmavz	7	6	6	9	9	100
Bill Simmons - ESPN	4	8	9	7	7	100
shoein	6	6	7	7	9	100
bluegirl	7	9	8	11	5	98
TouchdownMonkey	9	6	9	6	9	96
Clark Judge - CBS Sports	6	5	7	9	10	96
Road	8	9	6	11	6	95
torontocoltsfan	4	6	8	10	7	94
MrNFL	5	6	6	7	10	93
The Lawn Wrangler	7	6	7	8	5	93
bobzilla3	6	5	7	5	8	92
PB	6	8	8	7	9	91
Underdogs	7	10	9	10	5	90
Cassieper	8	5	6	11	8	90
shake n bake	6	9	7	11	8	89
mgrex03	7	7	4	10	7	89
peytonsurdaddy	6	6	6	9	8	89
Harmon Predictor - CBS Sports	2	6	6	8	9	89
sandsaver01	5	8	12	6	7	87
ColtsFanNChiTown	2	7	6	6	8	87
Spin Predictor - CBS Sports	5	6	6	10	6	86
Favorites	6	3	6	6	11	86
Pete Prisco - CBS Sports	5	6	7	11	8	85
emiller17	5	6	7	7	6	85
Shimn	6	3	6	8	8	84
UnofficialPants	6	3	10	6	8	82
Home	5	4	9	5	10	81
PeytonUL18	6	5	7	7	9	80
Orren's Boy	4	5	8	6	4	80
kubladawn	8	6	0	11	5	78
ColtsFanFromHawaii	7	8	5	10	7	76
Peter Madden - CBS Sports	4	5	4	5	9	76
Darth Ventura	7	6	5	7	9	75
burncruisin	7	0	0	0	0	66
KingRichard	4	0	0	0	0	65
passdinho	0	7	4	8	6	64
bohephus	3	9	5	10	4	59
marvinindy	6	9	5	6	0	58
JV1241	7	9	5	8	0	55
misterC	3	8	9	10	0	53
Memphis Red Dogs	8	0	0	0	0	53
costragas	5	9	5	7	8	52
slckrsmitty	5	0	0	0	0	49
SpazMo	6	0	0	0	0	43
Power Ranking	4	3	0	6	0	36
CarmelKevin	4	0	7	9	0	29
shag dog	6	0	0	0	0	23
Power Ranking Adj	0	5	0	6	0	11
JWilder	0	0	0	7	3	10
firstprime	0	0	0	8	0	8
jammer6303	0	8	0	0	0	8
jborgnini	0	0	0	8	0	8
Liffick	0	0	0	8	0	8
Mark Lempke	8	0	0	0	0	8
el_conquistador	0	0	0	7	0	7
diagenesis	0	0	6	0	0	6
medicblue	0	0	0	6	0	6
banhouse	0	4	0	0	0	4

Straight Up:

Name	Week 8	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11	Week 12	Total
JustinPugh	10	9	11	12	13	128
shoein	10	8	11	11	10	127
Michael Silver - Yahoo!	10	9	10	13	12	123
Merrill Hoge - ESPN	8	10	11	12	11	123
emiller17	8	9	9	11	12	123
bluegirl	10	9	12	11	9	122
Coltsdude1000	8	7	8	13	13	122
zkmavz	7	9	8	12	12	122
Sean Leahy - USA Today	8	9	9	13	11	122
Favorites	9	7	9	12	14	121
TouchdownMonkey	9	8	10	11	12	121
Charles Robinson - Yahoo!	7	8	8	13	12	121
Pete O'Brien - USA Today	7	9	6	11	12	121
oldecoltsfan	8	9	10	11	11	120
Accuscore - ESPN	10	7	8	12	11	120
Chris Mortensen - ESPN	9	8	8	11	12	120
Shimn	8	7	9	13	11	120
Adam Schefter - ESPN	6	8	9	12	10	119
Gmachine!	9	10	11	11	3	119
Nate Davis - USA Today	8	9	7	13	10	119
tim55	8	8	9	12	10	118
Mark Schlereth - ESPN	8	10	8	11	10	118
Gary Mihoces - USA Today	9	9	7	12	12	118
Cassieper	8	10	11	11	11	117
MrNFL	9	7	9	12	13	117
Mike Golic - ESPN	10	10	8	13	8	117
peytonsthebest	8	9	10	11	11	117
sandsnake	8	8	10	12	10	117
Jarrett Bell - USA Today	9	10	9	12	11	117
Tom Pedulla - USA Today	9	10	8	13	10	117
Eric Allen - ESPN	9	10	9	11	11	116
jammer6303	8	9	9	12	9	116
skywalker	11	8	10	12	9	115
Jason Cole - Yahoo!	10	8	8	12	11	115
peytonsurdaddy	9	8	8	12	12	115
Ufanforreal	9	8	10	10	11	115
Seth Wickersham - ESPN	6	9	11	11	9	115
piojocuau	9	6	10	10	9	115
The Lawn Wrangler	8	8	8	10	10	115
PB	8	8	9	11	11	112
Jim Corbett - USA Today	9	7	8	12	11	112
mgrex03	10	7	10	11	10	111
shake n bake	6	9	11	11	11	111
bobzilla3	10	9	9	13	10	110
Ron Jaworski - ESPN	7	6	8	11	10	110
coltsgirl81	6	5	8	11	8	110
sanders_murks_cats	8	9	11	13	0	106
PeytonUL18	8	8	9	11	12	105
Coltsfaninoklahoma1	9	7	11	10	0	105
Home	8	8	10	9	13	104
Skip Wood - USA Today	7	8	7	10	10	104
KrouseingTiger	9	5	9	13	12	102
kubladawn	9	8	0	11	11	102
jedye	10	0	10	11	11	100
i9x	6	8	9	11	9	96
MarshallPlan	5	6	8	9	10	94
chano14	8	6	12	10	0	92
Indy Lori	8	7	10	10	0	91
roggae	6	9	8	10	0	90
EnSsRex	9	7	12	10	0	86
Pythagorean	7	7	0	12	0	83
marvinindy	9	9	8	13	0	82
JV1241	7	9	11	11	0	81
bohephus	8	10	9	12	7	80
payne	9	11	10	10	0	79
Coin Flip	6	10	0	0	0	75
JakeTheSnake	0	8	10	0	0	74
Memphis Red Dogs	10	0	0	0	0	74
misterC	8	8	9	12	9	73
Mavericky	7	0	11	9	11	73
Road	5	5	5	7	3	72
vintagephoenix	9	0	0	0	0	69
costragas	9	10	9	13	10	68
honeybear	8	0	0	0	0	68
gizzardfanny	7	0	0	0	0	68
DFWColtFan	8	0	0	0	0	65
burncruisin	9	0	0	0	0	58
Underdogs	4	6	6	4	2	55
SpazMo	8	0	0	0	0	55
ANGELSFAITH	8	7	10	0	0	52
Power Ranking	7	7	0	12	0	50
DnastyDM	9	0	0	10	0	50
Heeringa	7	8	9	12	13	49
anitrimi	0	10	11	13	12	46
enjyinlife	6	8	12	10	0	46
diagenesis	6	8	0	10	8	46
jkwright6504	0	0	0	13	0	41
onearmedboxer	0	0	11	0	0	40
arizonajason	8	8	0	10	8	34
dDogg	6	0	10	13	0	29
Z.Pain	0	0	0	12	0	29
kdgriffith	8	0	0	0	0	27
Teddybear78	7	0	9	0	0	26
JWilder	0	0	0	13	8	21
medicblue	0	0	9	12	0	21
Power Ranking - Adj	0	7	0	12	0	19
shag dog	8	0	0	0	0	17
horseshoeboy1	0	0	0	12	0	12
npb1985	0	0	0	12	0	12
chewylettuce	0	0	0	11	0	11
DontHateAddai	0	0	0	11	0	11
INDYCOLTSROCK18	0	0	0	11	0	11
Percy Harvin My Fav!	0	0	0	11	0	11
TheTealDeal	0	0	0	0	11	11
firstprime	0	0	0	10	0	10
18yo44	0	0	0	10	0	10
davis3217	0	0	0	10	0	10
fwcoltsfan	0	0	0	10	0	10
MVPeyton1887	9	0	0	0	0	9
sandtiger812	0	0	0	9	0	9
bradherold	8	0	0	0	0	8
patndan	0	8	0	0	0	8
drewdahler	0	0	0	0	7	7
SEWL	0	0	0	7	0	7

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Week 12

mgrex03 — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 01:40:17 -0000

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Week 12

Let this be a lesson to all of you...back your stuff up. Laptop won't recognize my hard drive, so no standings until at least next week. Sorry about that. Thursday games (3) can be made in here.