SB Nation User Blog: mgrex03

Winning Stats Power Rankings: Week 10

mgrex03 — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:33:43 -0000

It's time for another weekly installments of the Winning Stats Power Rankings. There was decent movement at the top of the rankings, with the big jumpers being the Bengals and Steelers, each beating a team in last week's top 5. The Colts maintained their lofty ranking, moving up one spot in the Adjusted Rankings.

This week I've also included a Future Schedule Ranking, so you have an idea how tough the road ahead will be for teams. It's figured out the same way as the Past Strength of Schedule. The rankings have been adjusted as well, so I think it's pretty accurate.

Follow me to see the rankings...

Here are the Power Rankings for Week 10 (click on headers to sort):

Team	Power Rankings
	Non-Adjusted			Adjusted
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Saints	4	1	1	3	1	1
Patriots	1	10	2	1	9	2
Bengals	11	8	11	9	4	3
Colts	2	14	3	2	20	4
Ravens	6	18	8	6	12	5
Steelers	3	13	4	4	17	6
Giants	10	5	7	11	7	7
Dolphins	13	22	16	7	14	8
Cowboys	5	19	9	5	21	9
Vikings	7	7	5	10	15	10
Broncos	16	9	13	16	5	11
Jets	22	3	14	19	2	12
Packers	9	6	6	14	10	13
Eagles	17	2	10	18	6	14
Falcons	8	26	17	8	23	15
Texans	15	11	12	13	18	16
Cardinals	20	4	15	20	3	17
Chargers	12	24	18	12	28	18
Bears	18	21	20	17	24	19
49ers	27	12	23	25	8	20
Panthers	24	20	24	22	19	21
Seahawks	21	16	21	24	11	22
Redskins	19	15	19	21	22	23
Bills	30	17	25	28	13	24
Titans	26	23	26	27	16	25
Jaguars	14	28	22	15	31	26
Chiefs	28	25	27	30	25	27
Lions	23	31	28	23	29	28
Buccaneers	29	27	29	29	27	29
Rams	25	32	30	26	32	30
Browns	32	30	32	32	26	31
Raiders	31	29	31	31	30	32

Some thoughts:

Like I said above, the Colts moved up in the Adjusted Rankings from 4th to 3rd, but got jumped by the Bengals (more on them later). The defense still isn't ranked very high when you adjust for opponents, but I'm guessing the next two weeks, playing the #1 and #6 offenses, will show how good they really are.
The Saints still hold the top spot, more so for the defense than the offense, although both units are very good.
When I looked at the lines for this week, I was shocked by the Bengals/Steelers line. Could the Bengals really be getting 6.5 points? The same Bengals who have beaten the Steelers already this year, and look to me like a better team anyways? If you look at the raw numbers, it clearly looks like the Steelers are a better team. But when you look closer, the Bengals are playing very well against good teams. They are well balanced, have their stars healthy, and are playing really well, against a tough schedule.

Here's the Schedule Rankings (click on headers to sort):

Team	Strength of Schedule
	Past			Future
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Dolphins	1	1	1	26	15	22
Browns	2	4	2	32	18	24
Ravens	11	8	3	30	13	19
Broncos	22	2	4	28	26	27
Bengals	13	6	5	31	30	29
Falcons	9	5	6	4	24	15
Jets	4	7	7	21	5	7
Bills	3	9	8	17	6	8
Patriots	5	13	9	8	4	4
Titans	17	3	10	20	21	23
Buccaneers	7	12	11	2	2	2
Chargers	19	17	12	16	28	25
Raiders	12	16	13	22	12	6
Saints	6	18	14	29	17	26
Lions	20	10	15	5	22	12
Bears	14	15	16	12	19	16
Panthers	10	19	17	3	1	1
Steelers	24	22	18	24	20	14
Chiefs	29	11	19	19	25	21
49ers	21	14	20	23	29	31
Cardinals	18	20	21	25	32	32
Texans	8	27	22	27	8	18
Cowboys	15	28	23	14	14	13
Vikings	26	24	24	9	23	20
Eagles	27	29	25	18	9	11
Giants	25	26	26	10	7	5
Rams	28	23	27	1	27	28
Packers	32	25	28	15	16	17
Seahawks	31	21	29	13	31	30
Colts	16	30	30	6	10	10
Jaguars	23	32	31	7	11	9
Redskins	30	31	32	11	3	3

A couple thoughts here:

The Colts have played a pretty easy schedule to date, but will get tough, especially the next 2 weeks. It's certainly tougher than what the Saints have to still play.
Don't be surprised to see the Dolphins rip off a few wins in a row. They've played the toughest schedule in the league, and have it fairly easy the rest of the way.
The AFC East is making up for the ridiculously easy schedules last year with very tough ones this year. All of them figure to end up in the top 10 in SOS by the end of the year.
Don't expect the Giants to turn the ship around. They feasted on the easy part of the schedule, and have struggled once they started playing real teams. Definitely don't see them making the playoffs.

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Results Week 9, Link for Week 10

mgrex03 — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 16:39:05 -0000

Week 9 had possibly the biggest surprise of the season, with Tampa Bay beating the Packers, but that didn't get by all Stampede Blue readers. Two people correctly picked the Bucs, which I never would have expected. Nobody ended up picking the Texans or Redskins either, which ended up correct. The other big surprise was only 10/51 correctly picking the Cowboys over the Eagles.

To save some room on the front page, check out the winners and leaderboards after the jump...

This week Against the Spread we had a whole slew of people get 9 games correct. They are:

bluegirl
bohephus
costragas
JV1241
marvinindy
shake n bake

Congrats to all of you. The real winner was the Underdogs, who went 10/13, but I like giving people the weekly award. The leaderboard after 9 weeks:

Against the Spread
Name	Week 5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Week 9	Total
shoein	9	8	7	6	6	75
zkmavz	7	7	10	7	6	74
bluegirl	7	6	8	7	9	73
bobzilla3	4	9	9	6	5	73
The Lawn Wrangler	6	7	7	7	6	73

In our Straight Up contest we had one winner who got 11/13 correct: payne. Congrats! Overall here's the leaderboard, with a tie now at the top:

Straight Up
Name	Week 5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Week 9	Total
shoein	10	11	9	10	8	94
Gmachine!	9	9	9	9	10	94
JustinPugh	8	9	10	10	9	92
emiller17	9	9	8	8	9	91
bluegirl	11	7	9	10	9	90

Next week I'll be adding the Adjusted Power Rankings into the mix. Also this week THERE IS A GAME THURSDAY NIGHT THIS WEEK (I'm making this as obvious as possible). As we did last year, feel free to put your pick as a comment in this thread if you don't want to pick all the game before Sunday. Make sure you specify whether it is ATS or SU. If you miss Thursday night, you can still pick the rest of the game on Sunday. Just get them in before the games start. I'll be around on Sunday with the link for everyone's picks.

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Picks Week 9

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Week 10, open until 1:00 ET Sunday

Against the Spread:

Name	Week 5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Week 9	Total
Bill Simmons - ESPN	10	9	7	4	8	78
shoein	9	8	7	6	6	75
Dave Richard - CBS Sports	8	9	8	7	8	74
zkmavz	7	7	10	7	6	74
bluegirl	7	6	8	7	9	73
bobzilla3	4	9	9	6	5	73
The Lawn Wrangler	6	7	7	7	6	73
Road	6	9	9	8	9	71
TouchdownMonkey	8	6	10	9	6	71
mgrex03	9	5	6	7	7	69
Clark Judge - CBS Sports	9	7	7	6	5	69
MrNFL	8	4	8	5	6	69
PB	6	10	9	6	8	68
torontocoltsfan	8	6	8	4	6	68
peytonsurdaddy	8	7	6	6	6	67
Power Ranking	7	5	10	4	3	67
emiller17	6	8	8	5	6	66
ColtsFanNChiTown	4	5	10	2	7	66
Harmon Predictor - CBS Sports	12	6	10	2	6	65
Underdogs	8	9	2	7	10	65
burncruisin	8	8	9	7	0	65
shake n bake	8	8	5	6	9	64
Favorites	6	5	11	6	3	64
Cassieper	6	3	9	8	5	64
KingRichard	10	8	6	4	0	64
Orren's Boy	5	6	11	4	5	63
Spin Predictor - CBS Sports	6	5	9	5	6	62
sandsaver01	8	9	10	5	8	61
Shimn	6	8	10	6	3	61
kubladawn	7	9	0	8	6	61
Pete Prisco - CBS Sports	9	4	8	5	6	60
Home	8	5	4	5	4	58
Peter Madden - CBS Sports	7	5	9	4	5	57
UnofficialPants	6	6	6	6	3	57
PeytonUL18	8	6	7	6	5	56
ColtsFanFromHawaii	8	6	6	7	8	55
Memphis Red Dogs	3	9	8	8	0	54
Darth Ventura	5	5	7	7	6	53
slckrsmitty	0	7	7	5	0	49
marvinindy	6	6	9	6	9	46
passdinho	6	4	8	0	7	45
Dave	7	4	8	0	0	45
SpazMo	7	8	6	6	0	42
JV1241	4	0	9	7	9	41
bohephus	7	5	9	3	9	39
scottishcoltsfan	3	6	0	0	0	39
jedye	7	0	0	0	0	39
misterC	8	0	9	3	8	35
Daveinindy	0	0	9	0	0	34
costragas	0	8	10	5	9	32
enjyinlife	0	6	7	0	0	28
shag dog	0	0	8	6	0	22
CarmelKevin	0	0	9	4	0	13
bigred	0	0	10	0	0	10
lolo	0	0	9	0	0	9
Dodd53	0	8	0	0	0	8
bohica	0	8	0	0	0	8
justin37013	0	0	8	0	0	8
Disco Stu	0	0	8	0	0	8
BlueU	0	0	8	0	0	8
Mark Lempke	0	0	0	8	0	8
jammer6303	0	0	0	0	8	8
junior	7	0	0	0	0	7
ymsboard	4	0	0	0	0	4
banhouse	0	0	0	0	4	4

Straight Up:

Name	Week 5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Week 9	Total
shoein	10	11	9	10	8	94
Gmachine!	9	9	9	9	10	94
JustinPugh	8	9	10	10	9	92
Pete O'Brien - USA Today	8	9	10	7	9	92
emiller17	9	9	8	8	9	91
bluegirl	11	7	9	10	9	90
Nate Davis - USA Today	10	11	9	8	9	89
zkmavz	10	9	11	7	9	89
Merrill Hoge - ESPN	11	8	9	8	10	89
Accuscore - ESPN	9	8	10	10	7	89
Sean Leahy - USA Today	9	9	8	8	9	89
Chris Mortensen - ESPN	10	6	8	9	8	89
Michael Silver - Yahoo!	8	10	10	10	9	88
Mark "Stink" Schlereth - ESPN	10	9	8	8	10	88
Mike Golic - ESPN	8	7	9	10	10	88
Coltsdude1000	9	8	11	8	7	88
Charles Robinson - Yahoo!	8	10	10	7	8	88
TouchdownMonkey	11	6	9	9	8	88
oldecoltsfan	9	9	8	8	9	88
Adam Schefter - ESPN	9	8	11	6	8	88
Gary Mihoces - USA Today	10	7	10	9	9	87
tim55	10	8	9	8	8	87
Shimn	8	10	9	8	7	87
Favorites	9	8	11	9	7	86
The Lawn Wrangler	10	9	9	8	8	86
Tom Pedulla - USA Today	10	7	8	9	10	86
jammer6303	8	8	10	8	9	86
shake n bake	10	6	11	6	9	86
Jarrett Bell - USA Today	11	8	8	9	10	85
peytonsthebest	11	6	8	8	9	85
piojocuau	9	8	8	9	6	85
Power Ranking	8	6	10	7	7	85
Jason Cole - Yahoo!	8	8	8	10	8	84
sandsnake	8	8	10	8	8	84
Ufanforreal	7	8	10	9	8	84
Seth Wickersham - ESPN	10	6	10	6	9	84
Coltsfaninoklahoma1	7	8	8	9	7	84
Cassieper	8	5	8	8	10	84
skywalker	9	8	9	11	8	83
Eric Allen - ESPN	8	8	9	9	10	83
peytonsurdaddy	9	8	8	9	8	83
MrNFL	8	8	8	9	7	83
sanders_murks_cats	9	9	10	8	9	82
coltsgirl81	10	9	8	6	5	82
Jim Corbett - USA Today	9	8	8	9	7	81
PB	9	7	9	8	8	81
Ron Jaworski - ESPN	9	8	8	7	6	81
Pythagorean	7	8	8	7	8	81
mgrex03	10	6	6	10	7	80
kubladawn	8	10	0	9	8	80
bobzilla3	7	9	10	10	9	78
Skip Wood - USA Today	4	9	6	7	8	77
Coin Flip	10	6	7	6	10	75
Memphis Red Dogs	7	10	8	10	0	74
PeytonUL18	10	7	8	8	8	73
roggae	7	8	9	6	9	72
Home	7	8	4	8	8	72
KingRichard	6	12	9	0	0	72
Indy Lori	9	6	10	8	7	71
chano14	10	9	8	8	6	70
vintagephoenix	9	10	9	9	0	69
James Buchanan	7	10	8	0	0	69
KrouseingTiger	9	7	10	9	5	68
honeybear	9	9	8	8	0	68
i9x	9	6	7	6	8	67
gizzardfanny	9	9	10	7	0	67
Marshall Plan	7	9	7	5	6	67
jedye	7	0	11	10	0	67
shelbyjames	9	10	12	0	0	66
DFWColtFan	11	8	9	8	0	65
JakeTheSnake	9	6	6	0	8	64
EnSsRex	8	0	9	9	7	63
marvinindy	8	7	8	9	9	61
JV1241	7	9	10	7	9	59
payne	8	4	7	9	11	59
burncruisin	7	9	9	9	0	58
Road	7	6	9	5	5	57
SpazMo	10	9	7	8	0	55
bohephus	10	7	8	8	10	52
misterC	10	0	8	8	8	43
Underdogs	5	6	2	4	6	43
ANGELSFAITH	9	9	9	8	7	42
Mavericky	7	9	8	7	0	42
hahasound	6	8	8	0	0	42
Daveinindy	0	0	10	0	0	42
Dave	9	6	8	0	0	41
DnastyDM	0	0	9	9	0	40
costragas	0	9	8	9	10	36
bluemagic	8	6	0	0	0	33
onearmedboxer	0	0	10	0	0	29
diagenesis	0	5	9	6	8	28
jkwright6504	0	8	10	0	0	28
kdgriffith	0	0	7	8	0	27
enjyinlife	0	0	0	6	8	24
cwill111	0	0	9	0	0	21
szquirrel	0	8	11	0	0	19
shag dog	0	0	9	8	0	17
Teddybear78	0	0	10	7	0	17
Z.Pain	0	8	9	0	0	17
specopskid	0	0	8	0	0	17
arizonajason	0	0	0	8	8	16
Heeringa	0	0	0	7	8	15
BigBlueDawg	0	7	0	0	0	15
colts_and_cavs_in_09!	0	0	10	0	0	10
dclark#44	0	0	10	0	0	10
Disco Stu	0	0	10	0	0	10
junior	10	0	0	0	0	10
anitrimi	0	0	0	0	10	10
MVPeyton1887	0	0	0	9	0	9
PacersColtsWSox	0	0	9	0	0	9
bradherold	0	0	0	8	0	8
colts9318rock	8	0	0	0	0	8
FreeneyisaBeast	8	0	0	0	0	8
patndan	0	0	0	0	8	8
jabux13	0	0	7	0	0	7
dDogg	0	0	0	6	0	6

Week 9: Inside the Numbers

mgrex03 — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:09:18 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

Schaub knows what's coming next. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Browse more photos »

Two weeks in a row now the Colts have taken a lead down to the wire, coming out victorious. This week, a missed field goal by Kris Brown sent the Colts to 8-0, giving them a commanding 3.5 game lead in the AFC South. The game started out great for the Colts, but slowly started to slip away when Peyton Manning threw an INT late in the first half. The defense then struggled to get the Texans off the field until the 4th quarter, when they stepped up when they were needed.

A few notes from the game:

Manning threw 40 passes in the first half, the highest number of passes in the first half since Rich Gannon threw 41 in 2002 against the Steelers. It was also a career high for Manning in the first half. (Elias)
The Colts have been great in close game as of late. From Ned Macey of Football Outsiders:

The Colts ability to win close games is uncanny, except that it seems to disappear in the playoffs. They've won 15 of their last 16 meaningful regular season games decided by one touchdown or less but are 0-2 in the playoffs in games by one touchdown or less in that same streak. Actually, counting the playoffs, three of their last four losses by less than one touchdown are to San Diego.

It didn't take long for Dwight Freeney to extend his streak of consecutive games with a sack to 9, sacking Matt Schaub on the very first play of the game. That means he had sacks on consecutive plays, as he sacked Alex Smith on the 49ers' last offensive play last week.
Dallas Clark set the franchise record for catches in a game by a TE with 14. This was third highest reception total for a TE in NFL history (~~can't find the record or who owns it~~) Thanks to skywalker, the record is held by Jason Witten and Kellen Winslow, Sr with 15. I'm guessing we won't see Brian Cushing trying to cover him at the end of the month.
Seventeen games and counting...

Overall, it didn't look like one of the Colts' best games this season, but what do the numbers say? Find out after the jump...

Here are the stats for Week 9:

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Off/Def Above	Off/Def Below	Record
DSR	78.4%	2	72.7%	16	N	N	4-1
ANPY/A	4.453	18	5.133	11	N	N	6-1
Turnovers	2	14	3	3	N	N	4-1
Yds/Drive	37.80	4	34.73	19	N	N	4-0
ToP/Drive	2:32.7	17	3:08.5	21	N	Y	4-3
Yds/Play	5.324	14	5.380	15	N	N	4-1
First Downs/Drive	2.70	1	2.00	18	N	N	4-1
3rd/4th Down	46.2%	9	64.7%	26	N	N	6-2
Avg Start Pos	31.7	9	24.0	5	Y	N	7-1
3 and Outs	2	5	5	3	Y	N	2-3
RZ Eff	71.4%	13	66.7%	8	N	N	1-2
Plays/Drive	7.100	2	6.455	21	N	N	4-2
Penalty Yds / Play	0.563	13	1.451	3	Y	N	5-2
RB Success	47.1%	15	41.7%	4	Y	N	7-4
Yds/Carry	4.00	15	3.12	4	N	N	1-3
Net Punts Yds/Game	32.67	25	41.50	16	N	Y	4-3
Ranking - Week (26)	6		11		8
Ranking - Season (258)	79		142		97

Some Thoughts:

I was wrong about the Colts shredding the Texans pass defense, as the Colts had their worst ANPY/A showing of the season, finishing 18th this week. I didn't think I'd see a game this year where the Colts' opponent would be better in this category, but it happened this week. This is a good candidate for why the Colts had to fight tooth and nail to win.
The Texans defense came into the game best in the league in First Downs/Drive and Three & Outs/Game, but that didn't matter this week, as the Colts offense had quite a few long, sustaining drives.
The Colts defense was worst in the league this week in Third/Fourth Down Conversions, as the Texans converted almost 65% of them. They flashed a stat at one point that the Texans were converting 3rd and 10+ yards at 20% this year...the Texans converted the next 2 of 10+ yards. Unacceptable.
The Run defense was fantastic once again. Top 5 in both rushing categories. Great job by the D-Line and LBs.
Overall it was a run of the mill, above average game for the Colts, both for the week and for the season.

Colts Season Totals through Week 9:

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Best	Defense	Rank	Best	Record	Win %
DSR	78.4%	1	Colts	67.2%	10	Jets	56-5	0.918
ANPY/A	8.043	2	Saints	3.890	3	Bills	68-5	0.932
Turnovers	1.00	3	Chiefs	1.88	8	Saints	57-13	0.814
Yds/Drive	40.04	1	Colts	28.55	16	Giants	60-7	0.896
ToP/Drive	2:54.5	6	Steelers	2:54.6	25	Saints	57-18	0.760
Yds/Play	6.343	3	Cowboys	4.676	4	Jets	58-11	0.841
First Downs/Drive	2.19	2	Patriots	1.69	22	Cardinals	49-11	0.817
3rd/4th Down	50.5%	2	Dolphins	44.5%	30	Cardinals	48-10	0.828
Avg Start Pos	28.7	21	Bears	26.1	3	Cowboys	63-13	0.829
3 and Outs	2.38	2	Cowboys	3.75	19	Texans	41-15	0.732
RZ Eff	68.5%	12	49ers	60.5%	10	Saints	36-21	0.632
Plays/Drive	6.313	2	Patriots	6.106	29	Giants	45-20	0.692
Penalty Yds / Play	0.655	4	Jaguars	0.846	14	Seahawks	67-45	0.598
RB Success	47.5%	11	Dolphins	47.9%	20	Eagles	47-20	0.701
Yds/Carry	3.73	27	Titans	4.30	17	49ers	27-32	0.458
Net Punts Yds/Game	40.66	11	Raiders	42.21	27	Browns	31-27	0.534
Overall	2		Patriots	14		Saints

A few thoughts here:

The stats in the Top 6 continue to be there, and I don't think that will change soon.
Red Zone Efficiency is lower than it should be. The Colts absolutely cannot settle for FGs going forward. I'm guessing they'll be working on that a lot this week.
The YPC is low, but the Success Rate is high. Getting Brown back healthy should help.
Defensively it is still getting opposing offenses off the field. The stats relating to that (ToP/Drive, First Downs/Drive, 3rd/4th Down Conversions, Plays/Drive) are all bad. I know it is a bend but don't break defense, but a few more stops will go a long way to helping this team keep winning.
ANPY/A still has the best record when you're above average on both sides of the ball, only losing 5 times (Giants losing to SD this week the latest). Still a good sign for the Colts.

Week 9 Statistical Preview: Colts vs. Texans

mgrex03 — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 16:41:38 -0000

The 2nd of 3 straight home games brings in the Houston Texans to face our Colts. This is arguably the biggest game of the year so far for the Colts, as they could put a huge stranglehold on the division, going up 4 games in the division.

Both teams have had to wade through season-ending injuries this week. We all know about the Colts injury problems, but the Matt Schaub has lost his security blanket, Owen Daniels, for the season as well. The media, of course, thinks then that Andre Johnson will have a huge day without Daniels, and with the Colts starting two rookie corners. Like the Colts have done several other times this year. More on this a little later.

Coming into this week, the Colts are ranked 1st Offensively, 12th Defensively, and 3rd Overall, according to the Winning Stats Power Rankings. The Texans are 14th, 9th, and 12th respectively. The Texans defense has been playing better than the offense, although the Texans have played the easiest defensive schedule so far this year. That's changing today.

Stats after the jump...

Here are the numbers:

	Colts				Texans
Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
DSR	78.4%	1	66.3%	9	71.7%	14	67.3%	11
ANPY/A	8.751	1	3.685	4	7.599	6	6.098	19
Turnovers / Game	0.86	2	1.71	12	1.63	14	1.88	7
Yds/Drive	40.36	1	27.64	12	31.83	14	27.78	13
ToP/Drive	2:57.7	4	2:52.5	25	2:44.6	16	2:21.8	4
Yds/Play	6.509	2	4.565	4	5.743	10	5.701	25
First Downs/Drive	2.11	3	1.65	21	1.70	16	1.40	4
3rd/4th Down	51.0%	2	41.4%	26	38.4%	21	36.8%	12
Avg Start Pos	28.3	21	26.4	3	31.5	10	25.9	1
3 and Outs / Game	2.43	2	3.57	22	3.75	15	5.63	1
RZ Eff	68.0%	12	59.2%	9	63.3%	18	80.6%	31
Plays/Drive	6.200	3	6.054	28	5.543	17	4.872	2
Penalty Yds / Play	0.671	4	0.750	19	0.724	10	0.939	7
RB Success	47.6%	13	48.8%	22	42.0%	22	38.4%	4
Yds/Carry	3.70	26	4.48	23	3.30	30	4.69	28
Net Punts Yds	41.58	8	42.29	28	39.46	18	40.51	20
Overall	1		12		14		9

Keys to the Game:

Colts ANPY/A Defense vs. Texans ANPY/A Offense will be the key to the game. The Colts have consistenly shown how good they are on defense in this category, no matter the opponent (Remember Warner/Fitzgerald/Boldin? Shut them down too). The Texans are very good throwing the ball. If the Colts play like they have all year, they'll win.
Flip the stat around to the other side of the ball. Manning has only struggled against the teams in the top half of ANPY/A on defense. The Texans are not in the top half, so expect a big day from #18.
Looking at these stats, the Texans seem to get opposing offenses off the field quickly (4th in TOP/Drive, 2nd in Plays/Drive, 1st in Three & Outs). However, look at Yards / Play. 25th in the league. That means lots of big plays. Manning missed on quite a few long passes last week. Expect them to keep trying that, and hopefully converting them.
The Texans haven't been good running the ball this year. Let's hope this continues this year.
The Texans also aren't that good at converting 3rd/4th down plays. Time to make that continue as well.

One other thing...Texans owner Bob McNair is a horse owner, and one of his horses, Cowboy Cal, ran in the Breeders Cup Mile yesterday. He finished 10th of 11.

Go Colts!

Winning Stats Power Rankings - Week 9

mgrex03 — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 19:25:52 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

Is the Colts defense playing well because of a weak schedule? (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Browse more photos »

A new week of Power Rankings brings about a new feature: Defensive Adjusted Rankings. I'll still be presenting the Non-Adjusted raw rankings, but I think the Adjusted Rankings are a more accurate picture of what is going on in the league. Here's how I did it:

First off, a big thank you to Neil Paine over at Pro-Football-Reference.com, who pointed me to a 5 minute video tutorial on Excel Iterations. I was struggling mightily with it, and I only got it to work with his help. Make sure you check out the PFR blog for even more football-related information.
I took the average of all games for each team, and I subtracted out the historic average for each stat, so I now have either a plus or minus number for each team. I did this both on offense and defense.
I then found what the average of each team played against, so I could see the level of teams played against. For example, with DSR, the Colts are 9.3% above average, but opposing defenses they've faced are 4% below average, so I'd start with an adjusted average of 5.3% above average.
Now's the tricky part...since the Colts now have a new figure, it changes each of the defenses they have faced, which would then change the offensive adjustements, etc. This is where the Excel Iterations come in. Eventually, the numbers slowly converge until they don't change any more, which are the final adjusted numbers, that are above/below the historic average. Just add that back in and you're good to go.
I ranked the new adjusted numbers the same way as before, and (I think) you have a more accurate representation of the team's strengths.
If you want another explanation, here's where I got the idea: PFR.com Simple Ranking System.

Now that you are all thoroughly confused, how about I just show you the results:

Here's the Power Rankings (click on a column header to sort):

Team	Power Rankings
	Non-Adjusted			Adjusted
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Saints	5	2	1	4	1	1
Patriots	1	6	2	1	8	2
Ravens	3	14	4	3	9	3
Broncos	11	5	7	14	2	4
Colts	2	12	3	2	23	5
Bengals	13	15	13	12	7	6
Packers	7	7	5	11	10	7
Dolphins	14	22	15	10	11	8
Giants	12	8	10	9	13	9
Vikings	8	13	9	13	12	10
Jets	19	3	14	18	4	11
Cowboys	6	19	11	6	21	12
Falcons	10	25	18	7	22	13
Eagles	17	1	6	16	6	14
Steelers	4	20	8	5	25	15
Texans	15	9	12	15	20	16
Cardinals	23	4	16	20	3	17
Chargers	9	26	17	8	29	18
Bears	18	17	19	19	16	19
49ers	26	11	22	27	5	20
Seahawks	21	21	21	23	17	21
Bills	30	16	25	28	15	22
Redskins	20	10	20	22	24	23
Panthers	24	18	23	24	19	24
Chiefs	27	23	26	26	18	25
Titans	28	24	27	30	14	26
Jaguars	16	29	24	17	32	27
Lions	22	31	28	21	28	28
Buccaneers	29	30	30	29	30	29
Browns	32	28	32	31	26	30
Rams	25	32	29	25	31	31
Raiders	31	27	31	32	27	32

Some thoughts:

The Colts moved up to #3 in the Non-Adjusted Rankings, but fell to #5 in the Adjusted Rankings. Why you may ask? The defense is severely hurt when adjusting for the opposing offenses they have faced, dropping from #12 to #23! Looking at the teams they've faced, you can see why: The Dolphins are the best team they've faced, and they are #10, and next is Jacksonville at #17! If the defense can continue playing well (which they have been) the next 4 weeks, that number is going to shoot up.
The biggest movers up when adjusting for defense are the Bengals and Dolphins, who each move up 7 spots. Biggest losers? Eagles and Steelers, who dropped 8 and 7 spots, respectively. I agree with all four of those movements, as you should as well.
Even though the Packers have lost to the Vikings twice, they're ranked higher than the Vikings. I'm guessing everyone's favorite 40 year old QB has something to do with those 2 games.
The Jaguars have the worst defense in the league. Anyone want to disagree after what the Titans did to them last week?

Here's the Strength of Schedule:

Team	Strength of Schedule
	Non-Adjusted			Adjusted
	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Browns	8	1	1	2	5	1
Dolphins	2	8	3	4	1	2
Falcons	4	7	4	1	3	3
Ravens	19	6	8	9	7	4
Bengals	12	3	2	12	6	5
Jets	10	17	12	3	14	6
Broncos	25	5	11	18	4	7
Patriots	17	21	18	5	20	8
Bills	5	23	13	8	17	9
Saints	7	22	15	6	12	10
Raiders	3	13	7	10	10	11
Titans	18	2	5	31	2	12
Lions	15	4	6	19	9	13
Buccaneers	1	20	10	11	15	14
Chargers	26	15	17	14	16	15
Chiefs	11	10	9	24	8	16
Bears	30	9	19	26	11	17
49ers	20	12	14	21	13	18
Vikings	27	11	16	22	18	19
Cowboys	22	25	25	16	24	20
Packers	31	16	26	27	25	21
Cardinals	14	24	21	23	22	22
Rams	21	14	20	30	21	23
Steelers	32	19	28	28	23	24
Panthers	9	26	23	17	26	25
Giants	6	28	22	13	27	26
Seahawks	24	18	24	29	19	27
Texans	13	32	30	7	32	28
Eagles	16	30	29	25	29	29
Jaguars	23	27	27	20	28	30
Colts	29	29	32	15	30	31
Redskins	28	31	31	32	31	32

A couple things here:

There is definitely some merit to saying the Colts have played an easy schedule, because they clearly have. The defense has faced the 3rd easiest schedule. But look who has had an easier defensive schedule? Week 9 opponent Houston, who has played the easiest defensive schedule in the league. I think they'll finally be tested this week.
Who is playing the 1st place schedule in the AFC North? The Browns, Ravens, and Bengals are in the top 5 of SoS, while the Steelers are 24th.

I'm going to be working on 2 more improvements that should be done before the end of the season:

Future Strength of Schedule. Should be done for next week.
Weighted Rankings. This means that more recent games will count more than older games, as it tells a better story of how the team is playing now, rather than (possibly) 3 months ago. Give me a couple weeks on this to set it all up, but I think it's necessary for the best rankings.

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Results Week 8, Link for Week 9

mgrex03 — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 05:08:56 -0000

Week 8 had a few surprises (like nobody picking the Panthers over the Cardinals), but we continue with great participation. The other big surprise was only 16/64 people picked the Eagles over the Giants, which ended up being a pretty big blowout. Nobody picked the 49ers to win straight up, and only 2 correctly picked them to cover (one of them was who I called out for picking against the Colts last week). This was also the first week that the Broncos or Saints lost ATS, so you can't ride that train anymore.

On to the Results. In the Against the Spread contest, the winner this week is TouchdownMonkey, who got 9/13 games correct. Nice job in a tough week! Here's the leaderboard after 8 weeks:

Against the Spread
Name	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Total
shoein	6	9	8	7	6	69
zkmavz	8	7	7	10	7	68
bobzilla3	9	4	9	9	6	68
The Lawn Wrangler	9	6	7	7	7	67

In the Straight Up contest, the winner this week is skywalker, who got 11/13 games right. Yours truly was tied with a slew of others at 10 correct, which is the closest I've been to the top yet this year. Here's the leaderboard after 8 weeks:

Straight Up
Name	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Total
shoein	12	10	11	9	10	86
Gmachine!	12	9	9	9	9	84
JustinPugh	11	8	9	10	10	83
emiller17	12	9	9	8	8	82

shoein is still on top in both contests, although he's actually 1 game behind Bill Simmons. Speaking of Simmons, he had a pretty good column on how he did so well early on in the season, and a warning that he's now just guessing, and you shouldn't listen to him:

Anyway, here's my request for the next few weeks: If you have bad luck, stay away from "borrowing" my 2009 picks. Don't be the cooler of my column. Let me see if I can keep banging out 10-4 and 11-5 marks every week without you attaching a black cat to my ankles. If you have bad luck and are joining forces with me, that means other people with bad luck are doing the same. How do you think that's turning out for all of us? Badly. Poorly. Tragically.

Full Standings are after the jump. You'll notice I've only included the last 5 weeks, as it's too wide for any more. That means if you haven't participated the past 5 weeks, you're out of the standings. I'll be around Sunday afternoon to let everyone see the picks.

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Picks Week 8

Stampede Blue Prediction Contest Week 9, open until 1:00 ET Sunday

Against the Spread:

Name	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Total
Bill Simmons - ESPN	5	10	9	7	4	70
shoein	6	9	8	7	6	69
zkmavz	8	7	7	10	7	68
bobzilla3	9	4	9	9	6	68
The Lawn Wrangler	9	6	7	7	7	67
Dave Richard - CBS Sports	5	8	9	8	7	66
burncruisin	10	8	8	9	7	65
TouchdownMonkey	4	8	6	10	9	65
Power Ranking	10	7	5	10	4	64
Clark Judge - CBS Sports	7	9	7	7	6	64
KingRichard	6	10	8	6	4	64
bluegirl	6	7	6	8	7	64
MrNFL	7	8	4	8	5	63
mgrex03	9	9	5	6	7	62
Road	2	6	9	9	8	62
torontocoltsfan	6	8	6	8	4	62
Favorites	9	6	5	11	6	61
peytonsurdaddy	7	8	7	6	6	61
PB	5	6	10	9	6	60
emiller17	5	6	8	8	5	60
Harmon Predictor - CBS Sports	7	12	6	10	2	59
Cassieper	5	6	3	9	8	59
ColtsFanNChiTown	5	4	5	10	2	59
Shimn	9	6	8	10	6	58
Orren's Boy	10	5	6	11	4	58
Spin Predictor - CBS Sports	5	6	5	9	5	56
shake n bake	7	8	8	5	6	55
Underdogs	5	8	9	2	7	55
kubladawn	3	7	9	0	8	55
Memphis Red Dogs	7	3	9	8	8	54
Home	12	8	5	4	5	54
Pete Prisco - CBS Sports	7	9	4	8	5	54
UnofficialPants	0	6	6	6	6	54
sandsaver01	7	8	9	10	5	53
Peter Madden - CBS Sports	7	7	5	9	4	52
PeytonUL18	4	8	6	7	6	51
slckrsmitty	0	0	7	7	5	49
ColtsFanFromHawaii	5	8	6	6	7	47
Darth Ventura	6	5	5	7	7	47
Dave	8	7	4	8	0	45
SpazMo	4	7	8	6	6	42
jedye	4	7	0	0	0	39
scottishcoltsfan	0	3	6	0	0	39
passdinho	4	6	4	8	0	38
marvinindy	10	6	6	9	6	37
goblue	8	0	0	0	0	35
Daveinindy	0	0	0	9	0	34
JV1241	4	4	0	9	7	32
bohephus	6	7	5	9	3	30
enjyinlife	5	0	6	7	0	28
misterC	7	8	0	9	3	27
Bluevol03	7	0	0	0	0	25
costragas	0	0	8	10	5	23
shag dog	0	0	0	8	6	22
chrisg_127	5	0	0	0	0	22
BetterD	8	0	0	0	0	21
CarmelKevin	0	0	0	9	4	13
bigred	0	0	0	10	0	10
lolo	0	0	0	9	0	9
Dodd53	0	0	8	0	0	8
bohica	0	0	8	0	0	8
justin37013	0	0	0	8	0	8
Disco Stu	0	0	0	8	0	8
BlueU	0	0	0	8	0	8
Mark Lempke	0	0	0	0	8	8
junior	0	7	0	0	0	7
bobscolts	6	0	0	0	0	6
ymsboard	0	4	0	0	0	4

Straight Up:

Name	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Total
shoein	12	10	11	9	10	86
Gmachine!	12	9	9	9	9	84
JustinPugh	11	8	9	10	10	83
Pete O'Brien - USA Today	12	8	9	10	7	83
Accuscore - ESPN	11	9	8	10	10	82
emiller17	12	9	9	8	8	82
Coltsdude1000	12	9	8	11	8	81
bluegirl	8	11	7	9	10	81
Chris Mortensen - ESPN	12	10	6	8	9	81
Nate Davis - USA Today	10	10	11	9	8	80
zkmavz	10	10	9	11	7	80
Sean Leahy - USA Today	12	9	9	8	8	80
Adam Schefter - ESPN	11	9	8	11	6	80
Charles Robinson - Yahoo!	10	8	10	10	7	80
Shimn	10	8	10	9	8	80
TouchdownMonkey	10	11	6	9	9	80
Favorites	11	9	8	11	9	79
Michael Silver - Yahoo!	10	8	10	10	10	79
piojocuau	13	9	8	8	9	79
Merrill Hoge - ESPN	10	11	8	9	8	79
tim55	11	10	8	9	8	79
oldecoltsfan	10	9	9	8	8	79
Gary Mihoces - USA Today	12	10	7	10	9	78
The Lawn Wrangler	11	10	9	9	8	78
Mark "Stink" Schlereth - ESPN	11	10	9	8	8	78
Mike Golic - ESPN	9	8	7	9	10	78
Power Ranking	12	8	6	10	7	78
shake n bake	12	10	6	11	6	77
coltsgirl81	11	10	9	8	6	77
Coltsfaninoklahoma1	11	7	8	8	9	77
jammer6303	7	8	8	10	8	77
Tom Pedulla - USA Today	12	10	7	8	9	76
MrNFL	11	8	8	8	9	76
peytonsthebest	11	11	6	8	8	76
Jason Cole - Yahoo!	9	8	8	8	10	76
sandsnake	8	8	8	10	8	76
Ufanforreal	8	7	8	10	9	76
Jarrett Bell - USA Today	13	11	8	8	9	75
peytonsurdaddy	10	9	8	8	9	75
Ron Jaworski - ESPN	11	9	8	8	7	75
Seth Wickersham - ESPN	11	10	6	10	6	75
skywalker	6	9	8	9	11	75
Jim Corbett - USA Today	11	9	8	8	9	74
Memphis Red Dogs	9	7	10	8	10	74
Cassieper	9	8	5	8	8	74
sanders_murks_cats	11	9	9	10	8	73
mgrex03	12	10	6	6	10	73
Eric Allen - ESPN	8	8	8	9	9	73
PB	9	9	7	9	8	73
Pythagorean	11	7	8	8	7	73
kubladawn	12	8	10	0	9	72
KingRichard	11	6	12	9	0	72
vintagephoenix	11	9	10	9	9	69
bobzilla3	11	7	9	10	10	69
Skip Wood - USA Today	11	4	9	6	7	69
James Buchanan	9	7	10	8	0	69
honeybear	12	9	9	8	8	68
jedye	8	7	0	11	10	67
gizzardfanny	0	9	9	10	7	67
shelbyjames	0	9	10	12	0	66
DFWColtFan	8	11	8	9	8	65
PeytonUL18	11	10	7	8	8	65
Coin Flip	5	10	6	7	6	65
chano14	9	10	9	8	8	64
Indy Lori	10	9	6	10	8	64
Home	12	7	8	4	8	64
KrouseingTiger	8	9	7	10	9	63
roggae	11	7	8	9	6	63
Marshall Plan	12	7	9	7	5	61
i9x	10	9	6	7	6	59
burncruisin	12	7	9	9	9	58
EnSsRex	9	8	0	9	9	56
JakeTheSnake	9	9	6	6	0	56
SpazMo	9	10	9	7	8	55
marvinindy	10	8	7	8	9	52
Road	2	7	6	9	5	52
JV1241	9	7	9	10	7	50
payne	9	8	4	7	9	48
bohephus	9	10	7	8	8	42
Mavericky	11	7	9	8	7	42
hahasound	0	6	8	8	0	42
Daveinindy	0	0	0	10	0	42
Dave	9	9	6	8	0	41
DnastyDM	0	0	0	9	9	40
Underdogs	3	5	6	2	4	37
ANGELSFAITH	0	9	9	9	8	35
misterC	9	10	0	8	8	35
bluemagic	8	8	6	0	0	33
BetterD	11	0	0	0	0	30
onearmedboxer	10	0	0	10	0	29
jkwright6504	0	0	8	10	0	28
kdgriffith	0	0	0	7	8	27
chrisg_127	5	0	0	0	0	27
costragas	0	0	9	8	9	26
one.cool.customer	9	0	0	0	0	24
GoBlue912	11	0	0	0	0	23
cwill111	0	0	0	9	0	21
diagenesis	0	0	5	9	6	20
szquirrel	0	0	8	11	0	19
Colts Homer	10	0	0	0	0	19
shag dog	0	0	0	9	8	17
Teddybear78	0	0	0	10	7	17
Z.Pain	0	0	8	9	0	17
specopskid	0	0	0	8	0	17
enjyinlife	0	0	0	0	6	16
BigBlueDawg	0	0	7	0	0	15
lololol	11	0	0	0	0	11
NNCOPPER	11	0	0	0	0	11
Shakesta12	11	0	0	0	0	11
who am i	11	0	0	0	0	11
brown11b	10	0	0	0	0	10
colts_and_cavs_in_09!	0	0	0	10	0	10
ColtsUK	10	0	0	0	0	10
dclark#44	0	0	0	10	0	10
Disco Stu	0	0	0	10	0	10
goblue	10	0	0	0	0	10
junior	0	10	0	0	0	10
KevinE	10	0	0	0	0	10
datnugga4sho	9	0	0	0	0	9
MVPeyton1887	0	0	0	0	9	9
PacersColtsWSox	0	0	0	9	0	9
arizonajason	0	0	0	0	8	8
bradherold	0	0	0	0	8	8
colts9318rock	0	8	0	0	0	8
FreeneyisaBeast	0	8	0	0	0	8
Heeringa	0	0	0	0	7	7
jabux13	0	0	0	7	0	7
dDogg	0	0	0	0	6	6

Colts 49ers game on at 8:00 ET tonight

mgrex03 — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 01:00:57 -0000

Colts 49ers game on at 8:00 ET tonight

The Colts/49ers game is on NFL Replay, on NFL Network, at 8:00 ET tonight. If you didn't get to watch the first time, or want to re-live it, tune in!

Week 8: Inside the Numbers

mgrex03 — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 02:42:29 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

8 Games and Counting. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

Browse more photos »

What a game on Sunday. It's been a while since we all had to sweat 60 minutes of Colts Football. Here's some notes from this weekend:

From Elias: The last RB to throw a TD pass for the Colts was in 1984, when Curtis Dickey threw a 63 yard Touchdown pass to Tracy Porter. This was the 2nd game as the Indianapolis Colts. The last time a non-QB threw a TD pass? Ken Dilger in 2001, a 39 yarder to Marvin Harrison. I guess the Colts don't do this very often, huh?
Also from Elias: A record the Colts set in 2006 was broken last night by the Saints. The Saints have allowed 154 points this season, which is the most points allowed for a 7-0 team in NFL history. The previous record was 153, by your Super Bowl Champion Colts. Elam's late field goal did more than just ~~cover~~ beat the spread!
In the middle of the 4th quarter, Dwight Freeney recorded a sack of Alex Smith, setting the franchise record by getting a sack in 8 straight games. Only 2 more to tie the NFL record.
Manning threw his 2nd most passes in a game without throwing a TD pass, with 48. His record? 50 passes in this very forgettable game.
That's now 16 straight wins. Let's keep the train rolling!

Let's get to the numbers...

Here are the Colts' stats for Week 8:

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Off/Def Above	Off/Def Below	Record
DSR	63.6%	21	64.3%	8	N	N	8-2
ANPY/A	7.096	8	4.361	11	Y	N	8-1
Turnovers	0	1	2	7	Y	N	5-2
Yds/Drive	31.54	10	24.58	7	Y	N	9-0
ToP/Drive	2:34.9	14	2:12.2	7	N	N	7-1
Yds/Play	5.616	11	5.463	15	N	N	7-0
First Downs/Drive	1.54	16	1.33	7	N	N	7-2
3rd/4th Down	45.0%	9	20.0%	3	Y	N	5-0
Avg Start Pos	29.5	13	21.5	3	N	N	5-4
3 and Outs	4	10	6	2	N	N	6-1
RZ Eff	32.1%	24	100.0%	20	N	Y	3-4
Plays/Drive	5.615	10	4.500	4	Y	N	7-1
Penalty Yds / Play	0.521	9	0.926	5	Y	N	3-4
RB Success	42.9%	17	35.3%	3	N	N	0-1
Yds/Carry	2.90	25	6.28	23	N	Y	2-2
Net Punts Yds/Game	41.00	14	46.00	24	N	N	6-0
Ranking - Week (26)	10		5		11
Ranking - Season (232)	107		59		64

Some thoughts:

This was by far the worst Drive Success Rate of the season for the Colts Offense, as the 49ers were even better than their season average. I think this is the main reason the Colts struggled, and I said on my game preview that this stat would be key. Turns out it was the reason the game was so close. The Colts defense was pretty good though.
The Colts have been Above Average on both sides of the ball in all 7 games so far this season in ANPY/A. But today, however, this stat was not all Peyton Manning.
The 49ers were only 2/10 on 3rd down. Yes, that is correct. 20% Third Down Conversion for the defense. This is great to see.
Colts defense were also 2nd in Three and Outs this week, forcing 6 of them. Spectacular.
Here's why YPC is not the greatest stat for rushing: The Colts were 4th worst in YPC, basically because of one 64 yard run. Take a look at RB Success Rate: 35.5%, 3rd best. The Colts did a very good job stopping the run, other than that one play.
You'll probably hear the media talking about how awful the Colts played, how they aren't really that good. Guess what? This game by the Colts was still in the top 1/4 of all games played this year. Just because the offense struggles doesn't mean the Colts automatically struggle any more. Scary thought, huh?

Here's how it looks for the season:

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Best	Defense	Rank	Best	Record	Win %
DSR	78.4%	1	Colts	66.3%	9	Saints	52-4	0.929
ANPY/A	8.751	1	Colts	3.685	4	Saints	62-4	0.939
Turnovers	0.86	2	Packers	1.71	12	Eagles	53-12	0.815
Yds/Drive	40.36	1	Colts	27.64	12	Eagles	56-7	0.889
ToP/Drive	2:57.7	4	Patriots	2:52.5	25	Saints	53-15	0.779
Yds/Play	6.509	2	Cowboys	4.565	4	Broncos	54-10	0.844
First Downs/Drive	2.11	3	Patriots	1.65	21	Cardinals	45-10	0.818
3rd/4th Down	51.0%	2	Dolphins	41.4%	26	Cardinals	42-8	0.840
Avg Start Pos	28.3	21	Bears	26.4	3	Texans	56-12	0.824
3 and Outs	2.43	2	Cowboys	3.57	22	Texans	39-12	0.765
RZ Eff	68.0%	12	49ers	59.2%	9	Redskins	35-19	0.648
Plays/Drive	6.200	3	Patriots	6.054	28	Giants	41-18	0.695
Penalty Yds / Play	0.671	4	Jaguars	0.750	19	Seahawks	60-41	0.594
RB Success	47.6%	13	Dolphins	48.8%	22	Eagles	40-16	0.714
Yds/Carry	3.70	26	Titans	4.48	23	49ers	26-29	0.473
Net Punts Yds/Game	41.58	8	Raiders	42.29	28	Patriots	27-24	0.529
Overall	2		Patriots	12		Eagles

A couple thoughts here:

The Colts dropped to the #2 offense behind the idle Patriots. I think a big part of that is the DSR stat, which dropped 3%, but that's a big drop when you get to the top end of the distribution curve. I hope they can reclaim that next week.
They are still in the top 4 in the best 8 stats, leading in 3 different stats.
Red Zone offense really struggled this week, and it shows up here, dropping the Colts to 12th from 4th place just a week ago. Need to get that back up.
The Colts keep pulling themselves out of the hole created by the Miami game, creeping up to 12th in the league defensively. That's the highest they've been so far this season.
Colts opponents have to go the 3rd most yards to score a touchdown, which, I think, is helping the defense as well. They aren't getting put against the wall, so they are playing much looser.

Week 8 Statistical Preview - Colts vs. 49ers

mgrex03 — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 13:51:30 -0000

Week 8 brings the San Francisco 49ers to Lucas Oil Stadium, and it creates an interesting matchup for the Colts. As has been talked about all week, Alex Smith will be starting for the 49ers, making his first start since Week 9 of 2007. Smith also made his first career start the last time these two teams played, back in 2005, which was a 28-3 easy win for the Colts, on their way to starting 13-0.

Coming into this week, the Colts are ranked 1st Offensively, 16th Defensively, and 4th Overall, according to the Winning Stats Power Rankings. The 49ers are 25th, 9th, and 22nd respectively. Pretty good defense for the 49ers, but a really bad offense. Remember, though, that the offense now has a new QB, and a shiny new receiver to throw to.

More specifics, and the table, after the jump.

Here's the full statistical preview:

	Colts				49ers
Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank
DSR	81.1%	1	66.7%	11	61.8%	27	66.5%	9
ANPY/A	9.147	1	3.582	4	5.444	18	5.678	14
Turnovers / Game	1.00	5	1.67	15	1.17	7	1.67	15
Yds/Drive	42.37	1	28.23	13	22.67	29	25.99	7
ToP/Drive	3:02.8	4	3:00.3	30	2:27.7	27	2:26.2	8
Yds/Play	6.690	2	4.442	3	4.786	24	4.972	11
First Downs/Drive	2.25	1	1.71	20	1.18	30	1.47	7
3rd/4th Down	52.6%	2	43.6%	25	29.9%	29	39.6%	20
Avg Start Pos	28.0	24	27.4	7	27.9	25	28.9	15
3 and Outs / Game	2.17	2	3.17	24	5.83	31	4.83	6
RZ Eff	74.8%	4	56.0%	8	75.3%	2	69.4%	23
Plays/Drive	6.333	2	6.355	32	4.736	31	5.227	7
Penalty Yds / Play	0.701	7	0.726	20	0.982	27	1.069	4
RB Success	48.3%	12	50.3%	27	36.2%	29	35.3%	2
Yds/Carry	3.82	22	4.27	18	4.07	18	3.29	2
Net Punts Yds/Game	41.79	8	41.15	21	42.45	5	43.61	32
Overall	1		16		25		9

Some thoughts:

Drive Success Rate will be key today. The 49ers defense is ranked 9th, and needs to force the Colts off the field, fairly quickly, or else is going to be a long day for them. The Colts have been great this year at DSR, and I hope that can continue today.
Same goes for both Yards/Drive and First Downs / Drive, which are semi-related to DSR. The Colts are ranked #1 Offensively, and the 49ers are in the top 10. It will be a key to victory for whichever team wins these stats.
Peyton Manning is going to have fresh meat to throw against...Nate Clements has been benched in favor of Tarrell Brown. Head Coach Mike Singletary is changing more things this week in hopes of slowing down Manning. Unfortunately in the NFL, it is extremely difficult to change what you practice day in and day out and compete. Especially against #18.
The 49ers are very good against the run, ranking 2nd in both RB Success Rate and Yards / Carry. Being without Donald Brown won't help either. Let's hope the Colts can just be average running the ball.
Let's flip to the other side of the ball...the 49ers haven't turned the ball over much, averaging just over 1 TO / game. But they didn't seem to take many chances on offense, which was part of the reason, I believe, they made the QB switch. Look to see if more chances = more turnovers.
The 49ers like short drives (27th in the NFL), and the Colts like giving up long drives (30th in NFL). Can the Colts continue to force the 49ers into short drives, or will the 49ers sustain some long drives?
The 49ers are 2nd best in the NFL in Red Zone Efficiency, converting at 75.3%, while the Colts are ranked 8th defensively. The Colts haven't allowed a non-garbage time TD since Week 3, red zone or no red zone. Look for who matches up on Michael Crabtree, and if they double cover Vernon Davis, who had 3 TDs from Smith last week.

Prediction: Peyton Manning will be too much for the 49er secondary, and the Colts defense will get to Alex Smith consistently, causing a few turnovers. Colts 31, 49ers 13

Winning Stats Power Ranking - Week 8

mgrex03 — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 04:09:40 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

The leader of the #1 Offense in the NFL. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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Quite a bit of movement this week in the Power Rankings, as the better teams start to separate themselves from the rest of the league. The Colts moved up 2 spots this week to #4 after their dismantling of the Rams. As I mentioned in the Inside the Numbers article, the Colts now have the #1 offense, but a middle of the pack defense, which is keeping them at #4.

The biggest surprise on here has the be the Patriots at #2, but that mainly has to do with the fact they've played the Titans and Buccaneers, who've combined for as many wins as all of us have this year. Their upcoming schedule of Dolphins, Colts, Jets, Saints (OMG!), and Dolphins again will show if they deserve to stay up there.

More analysis after the jump, along with the rankings:

Team	Power Rankings			Strength of Schedule
Team	Offense	Defense	Total	Offense	Defense	Total
Saints	5	2	1	3	26	11
Patriots	2	8	2	17	22	19
Broncos	7	3	3	29	11	18
Colts	1	16	4	28	27	27
Packers	6	5	5	31	24	30
Giants	12	6	6	11	29	22
Ravens	3	17	7	25	9	17
Eagles	18	1	8	22	32	32
Steelers	4	18	9	32	19	29
Vikings	11	10	10	30	14	25
Cowboys	8	20	11	20	23	20
Dolphins	10	19	12	8	6	4
Bengals	14	15	13	19	5	5
Cardinals	20	4	14	9	12	15
Texans	16	14	15	12	30	28
Falcons	9	23	16	18	8	14
Jets	23	7	17	6	20	12
Redskins	21	11	18	27	31	31
Seahawks	19	13	19	26	16	26
Chargers	13	28	20	23	7	8
Jaguars	15	27	21	21	25	24
49ers	25	9	22	15	15	21
Bears	17	24	23	24	4	10
Bills	28	12	24	10	18	16
Panthers	24	21	25	16	28	23
Chiefs	26	22	26	13	13	9
Lions	22	31	27	5	2	2
Titans	30	26	28	14	3	3
Buccaneers	29	30	29	1	21	7
Rams	27	32	30	7	10	13
Raiders	32	25	31	2	17	6
Browns	31	29	32	4	1	1

A few more thoughts from around the league:

Don't let common misconceptions tell you how well teams are playing. Take a look at the Ravens, Steelers, and Cardinals. All 3 are lauded over for the side of the football that is average at best, while excelling on the other side. It was crazy to include Kurt Warner in any MVP talks last year, and it's even more so this year. Likewise with the Steelers and Ravens...they are winning on Offense, and not on Defense.
I was talking to a buddy of mine who is an Eagles fan, and I mentioned to him about the Eagles being #1 defensively. He was quick to point out the QBs they have faced this year: Delhomme, Brees, Cassel, Josh Johnson, Russell, and Campbell. They really just need Derek Anderson thrown in to make it complete. They have had the easiest defensive schedule so far, but that is pretty obvious.
The Giants have really slipped the past 2 weeks, after playing some real teams. Maybe they aren't as good as everyone in New York made them out to be.
The Colts schedule has been pretty easy so far this season. Having the schedule backloaded isn't such a bad thing though. It will keep them motivated throughout the season, and playing sharp going into January.

This weekend I'm going to attempt to get a Defensive-Adjusted Ranking. That is, if I can figure out iterative calculations in Excel. This will (hopefully) give us a little clearer picture as to how well these teams are playing.